台灣認同與總統大選結果的關係 - 政大學術集成

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(1)國立政治大學亞太研究英語碩士學位學程 National Chengchi University International Master’s Program in Asia-Pacific Studies. 碩士論文. 政治大. Master’s Thesis. 立. ‧ 國. 學 ‧. Relations between Taiwan Identity Tendency. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. And the Outcome of Presidential elections. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. Student: Sylvia Jean, Yi-zu 簡翊如 Advisor: Dr. Li, Fu-chung 李福鐘博士. 中華民國一零六年七月 July, 2017.

(2) Acknowledgement. I would like to express my gratitude to my advisor, Professor Li, Fu-chung, for his guidance and support during the writing of this thesis. I would like to further thank the kind assistance given by Professor Chen, Yi-shen, Professor Hsueh, Hua-yuan and Professor Lee, Yeau-tarn in facilitating the accomplishment of my work. I would also like to thank the classmates and friends who have been supporting and encouraging me during the past two years, it has been an amazing trip and the memories we shared would always be in my heart.. 政治大. I am also grateful for the understanding and respect shown by my family, their faith in me has. 立. always motivated me in overcoming the obstacles while pursuing my dreams.. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. ii. i n U. v.

(3) Abstract The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the impacts on the Presidential elections brought up by the growing Taiwan identity. The trend was inspired by Taiwan independence movements at home and abroad since the 1950’s. After the democratization in the late 1980’s, more and more citizens have identified themselves as Taiwanese, the trend has not only fueled the pro-independence movements, but also encouraged the political parties to adjust their cross-strait policies. If we see national identity as a variable in building unification/independence attitude, the identity issue will be a political topic at the state level which further affects development and policies of political. 政治大 national identity issue played an important role in the past Presidential elections. However, in 2008 立 and 2012, Taiwan identity was not a major strategy since it was already highly internalized and. parties. As a democracy, public opinion has been reflected in every Presidential election, and the. ‧ 國. 學. parties had to stand on the same position regarding this issue to maximize the votes. The Chou, Tzu-yu incident encouraged young people to vote when the sovereignty crisis was raised, and they. ‧. voted the Democratic Progressive Party, the party with stronger Taiwan identity. The voting preference showed that Taiwan identity was still a factor influencing the Presidential elections.. y. Nat. sit. n. al. er. io. 此研究旨在分析不斷上漲的台灣意識如何影響台灣的總統大選。台灣意識受五零年代以來海內外台灣獨立運動啟發，八零年代後期的民主化使愈來愈多的民眾認為自己是台灣人，其中年輕世代的台灣認同比例為最高。成為主流的台灣意識不只助長台獨意識，更促使政黨調整其兩岸政策。若將國家認同作為台人統獨態度的影響因素，認同議題便是國家層級的政治議題，此議題會進一步影響政黨的發展與決策。作為一民主國家，民意總展現在每次的選舉中，過去二十年來台灣意識對投票結果具有一定的影響力。然而 2008 年及 2012 年的總統選舉中，台灣意識的影響力漸弱，甚至不被作為主要選舉策略，此乃因台灣意識已高度內化，而為求選票最大化，政黨在此議題上須採相同立場。2016 年總統選舉投票日前發生的「周子瑜」事件鼓舞年輕世代在感覺到主權受威脅後自發性地參與投票，並將選票投給台灣意識較高的民主進步黨，證明台灣意識依舊是影響選民投票的因素。. Ch. engchi. 關鍵字：台灣意識、國家認同、台灣總統大選. iii. i n U. v.

(4) Contents Abstract....................................................................................................................................................... iii Chapter 1 – Introduction............................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Purpose........................................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 Research Question......................................................................................................................... 3 1.4 Expected Contribution ................................................................................................................. 7 1.5 Literature Review ......................................................................................................................... 7 1.6 Methods........................................................................................................................................ 11. 政治大. 1.6.1 List of interviewees................................................................................................................... 12 1.7 Thesis Structure .......................................................................................................................... 12. 立. 2.1 Definition of identity ................................................................................................................... 14. ‧ 國. 學. 2.1.1 Understanding of National Identity................................................................................ 16 2.1.2 Event-driven socialization ............................................................................................... 17. ‧. 2.3 Constructivism in Taiwan identity ............................................................................................ 18. sit. y. Nat. Chapter 3 – Political Events and data cross-analysis ............................................................................ 20. io. er. 3.1 Development of Taiwan Identity ............................................................................................... 20 3.2 Presidential elections from 1996 to 2016 ................................................................................... 24. n. al. Ch. i n U. v. 3.2.1 First Presidential election in 1996................................................................................... 25. engchi. 3.2.2 Second Presidential election in 2000 - First party rotation .......................................... 26 3.2.3 Third Presidential election in 2004 ................................................................................. 31 3.2.4 Fourth Presidential election in 2008 ............................................................................... 34 3.2.5 Fifth Presidential election in 2012 .................................................................................. 38 3.2.6 Fifth Presidential election in 2016 .................................................................................. 43 Chapter 4 - Interview analysis ................................................................................................................. 52 4.1 Mr. Lin, Cho-shui, master theoretician of the TIM ................................................................. 52 4.2 Mr. Chang, Jung-kung, former deputy Secretary General of the KMT ............................... 54 4.3 Ms. Ho Meng-hua, deputy Director of the Youth Affairs Division of the DPP ..................... 57 iv.

(5) 4.4 Mr. Lin , Choung-sheng, deputy Director of Department of China Affairs, DPP ................ 58 Chapter 5 – Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 60 5.1 The implication of the growing Taiwan Identity ...................................................................... 60 5.2 Impact on future cross-strait policies brought by the Growing Taiwan Identity ................. 64 5.3 Beijing’s reaction toward the growing Taiwan Identity .......................................................... 67 VI. Reference ............................................................................................................................................. 74. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. v. i n U. v.

(6) Chapter 1 – Introduction During the second half of the 20th century, people in Taiwan categorized each other into four major identities, aboriginals (the Austronesians who have lived on the island for thousands of years), Hoklo Taiwanese and Hakka Taiwanese (Han people who already lived here before the migration wave after August 1945), and Mainlander (Han people who came to Taiwan after August 1945). Such classification became sloppy and outdated. In the past two decades, more and more people have identified themselves as Taiwanese regardless when or from where their ancestors arrived in Taiwan.. 政治大 incident that happened in 1947. Many politically enthusiastic young students went abroad 立 to pursue higher academic achievement and initiated the oversea Taiwan independence The Taiwan identity was significantly triggered for the first time after the February 28. ‧ 國. 學. movement which inspired the Taiwan identity inside Taiwan island. The Taiwan identity trend grew secretly at first but later went unstoppable after the democratization until today.. ‧. Nevertheless, national identity is still one of the most debated political issue in Taiwan. y. Nat. society and also a crucial factor in party politics and government policy making process.. sit. Nearly half of Taiwan citizens are still struggling from the national identity issue, and. er. io. nowadays we have three main different claims existing in the society, Taiwan identity,. al. n. iv n C identity issue has been used as a hpolitical instrument e n g c h i Uduring election season which deepened the divergence within the country.. China identity and dual identity (both Taiwanese and Chinese). In the three decades, the. However, the situation has changed as time goes, the proportion of the three identity claims has been redistributed, the decrease of China identity seems to be irreversible, so is the growing of Taiwan identity. Therefore, understanding how the political situation has been influenced by Taiwan identity tendency would help us to predict the possible scenario of future political development.. 1.

(7) The young generation, as members of this new democracy, enjoy full civil rights, therefore it is our duty to understand that our opinions are valuable and our demands for changes will be achieved once a consistent collective identity is formed. 1.1 Purpose The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the impacts on the Presidential elections brought up by the growing Taiwan identity. The trend was inspired by Taiwan independence movements at home and abroad since the 1950’s. After the democratization in the late 1980’s, more and more citizens have identified themselves as Taiwanese, the trend has. 治政大 of the National Unification parties to adjust their cross-strait policies, from the issuance 立 Guidelines to the abandon of it, from the special State-to-State Relationship (特殊國與 not only fueled the pro-independence movements, but also encouraged the political. ‧ 國. 學. 國關係) to one country on each side (一邊一國), from the Consensus of 1992 to respect the fact of 1992 talks (尊重九二會談歷史事實).. ‧. We can see the government has shifted its cross-strait policies according to the. sit. y. Nat. mainstream opinion of the society. The identity issue on this island has drawn attention from Beijing as well, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been adjusting its cross-. io. n. al. er. strait policies over the past two decades based on the situation in Taiwan, on one hand,. i n U. v. the PRC keeps reiterating the importance of placing hopes on the Taiwanese people (寄. Ch. engchi. 希望於人民 ), and on the other hand, it continuously puts stress on Taiwanese government when the leaders show the intention of pursuing de facto independence. Therefore, there exits causality between Taiwan’s public opinion and the cross-strait policies. The decrease in China identity among Taiwanese society seems to be irreversible, if we see national identity as a variable in choosing unification/independence attitude, the identity issue will be a political topic at the state level which further affects development and policies of political parties. Therefore, it is important to understand how the evolving. 2.

(8) Taiwan identity has affected parties when they decide their cross-strait policies and strategies. 1.2 Research Question Taiwan society has been struggling with identity issue for decades, before 1987, under the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) authoritarian regime, Taiwan citizens were taught to be Chinese and had to be royal to the party (KMT) and the country (Republic of China). At that time, dissidents were ruthlessly suppressed and punished, so was the local identity. Fortunately, Taiwan welcomed its democratization thirty years ago, and the political and. 政治大. educational reforms have since encouraged the young generation to be more politically. 立. engaged.. ‧ 國. 學. The more information people receive, the more confused they are regarding their own identity. People who grow up after 1987 feel less Chinese, and more Taiwanese. There. ‧. were several events greatly affected national identity, the first one was the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis and the Taiwanese showed their strong will of protecting the sovereignty. Nat. sit. y. with their votes in the presidential election, it is worth mentioning that the Taiwan identity. io. al. er. increased significantly from 24.1% in 1996 to 34% in 19971. (See Figure 1). v. n. The growing trend of Taiwan identity is obvious, yet how much will the trend effect. Ch. i n U. cross-strait remains questionable, this thesis is expected to answer the question of how parties keep the pace with the trend.. engchi. 台灣民眾臺灣人/中國人認同趨勢分佈(1992 年 06 月~2016 年 12 月) , 政治大學選舉研究中心, 2016 http://esc.nccu.edu.tw/app/news.php?Sn=166#. 1. 3.

(9) Figure 1↓. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. 4. i n U. v.

(10) 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Figure 2 ↑. Ch. engchi. 5. i n U. v.

(11) 1.3 Research Assumption There were several turning points of Taiwanese national identity, the 1947 February 28 incident, 1979 Kaohsiung incident and the democratization began in 1987. More than 60% of the people who were born after 1987 identify themselves as Taiwanese, and more than 50% of them support Taiwan independence, therefore they are called “Tian Ran Du”(naturally pro-independence) generation.2 (See Figure 2) Identity is shaped by the environment and further influences citizens’ behavior. People with different national identity made different political choices. The Sun Flower. 治政大Ma Ying-jeou administration, the Cross-strait Service and Trade Agreement (CSSTA) by 立 the passing process at the Legislative Yuan was described “black box” (lack of Movement in 2014 showed the young generation’s unsatisfaction against the passing of. ‧ 國. 學. transparency).. The movement also reflected young generation’s distrust towards the PRC. The. ‧. movement further effected the Nine in One local election at the end of 2014, and the. y. Nat. Presidential and Congress election in 2016. According to the data collected by the Central. sit. Election Committee, the voters were mainly from the Tian Ran Du generation and more. er. al. n. independence party.3. io. than half of this group voted for Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the pro-. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. Since elections are held regularly in Taiwan, political leaders must always follow the wishes expressed by public opinion, hence it is reasonable to say that the Taiwan identity will keep influencing the future politics, especially the cross-strait policies.. 2017《天下》國情調查Ⅰ：39 歲，民意的斷裂點, 政治社會, 天下雜誌第 614 期, Jan 3rd, 2017 http://www.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5080204 3 台灣智庫：年輕人投票率 74.5％補刀終結國民黨, 自由時報, Jan 21, 2016 http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/1579950 2. 6.

(12) 1.4 Expected Contribution As the most debated topic in every Presidential election, the unification/independence issue has become extremely critical for parties to attract young supporters, the major source of votes. This thesis will analyze the cross-strait policies made by parties across the strait for the past two decades to see how much the public opinion has affected the cross-strait situation, and further examine the outcome to find out if the parties have been working on the right track to fulfill their goals. By identifying the factors shaping the cross-strait relations, we might as well predict the future of it.. 政治大 It is important to apply theoretical 立 tools and adopt the most suitable theories for studying 1.5 Literature Review. ‧ 國. 學. social phenomenon. In the attempt of discussing the impact brought by the growing Taiwan identity, the first thing is to introduce identity related theories, I will begin with the social identities defined by Rawi Abdelal, Yoshiko M. Herrera, Alastair Iain Johnston. ‧. and Rose McDermott in their article “Identity as a Variable (2006)” to pave the way to. y. sit. io. er. constructivism.. Nat. the most popular theories regarding identity-primordialism, instrumentalism and. Constructivism emphasizes the construction of identity is influenced by external factors,. n. al. i n U. v. the thesis intends to explain the evolving identity construction by discussing major. Ch. engchi. political events, therefore I found Sears’s and Valention’s “event-driven socialization”4 happens to hold the same view with mine. Their research proved teenagers’ political attitude and behavior could be influenced by the political events which took place during Presidential elections, one thing worth mentioning is that they also found most events that caused greater impact were negative. Domestic academic opinions also show that constructivism is the most applied theory in analyzing Taiwan’s identity issue. Xiao Gao-yen believes national identity can be defined. 4 Sears, David O., & Valentino, Nicholas A., “Politics Matters: Political Events as Catalysts for Pre-adult Socialization”, The American Political Science Review, 1997. 7.

(13) as the willing identification of citizens to their political community which makes members willing to contribute to the community, even sacrifice themselves when the community is in danger. 5 Jian Yi-hua defines national identity includes ethnic aspect (blood and religion), cultural aspect (history and emotion), and politic aspect (governmental power and civic right) 6 Shih Cheng-feng sees national identity is influenced by relations between ethnic groups, political parties and interest groups, and limited by the culture of the society and the political system. National identity is also affected by the interactions with other countries.7 The thesis focus on national identity on the island and its impact for the cross-strait. 政治大 development of Taiwan identity 立 first. After the 228 incident in 1947, intellectuals with relationship, therefore before analyzing the impacts, it is necessary to understand the. ‧ 國. 學. political ambitions went abroad to pursue higher academic achievement and devoted themselves in Taiwan Independence movements. Since 1960’s, Taiwan identity turned into a political issue, and was greatly promoted by oversea Taiwanese Independence. ‧. activists. Their work still encourages Taiwan identity up to today and the related. y. Nat. publication not only documented their contribution but also has served as materials in. sit. studying the forming and growth of Taiwan identity, i.e Forty Years of Oversea Taiwan. al. er. io. Independent Movement by Chen Ming-chen8, Taiwan’s Independence and Founding of. v. n. State by Chen Lung-chu9 and A Taste of Freedom by Peng Ming-ming10.. Ch. engchi. i n U. Moreover, Chen Fu-pian in his master thesis “History of the Oversea Taiwan Independence Movement” 11 also tried to preserve the stories of oversea Taiwan independent activists and remind the young generation how precious the democracy is.. 5 蕭高彥, 〈國家認同、民族主義與憲政民主：當代政治哲學的發展與反思〉, 台灣社會研究季刊社, 1997 6 江宜樺, 〈自由民主體制下的國家認同〉, 台灣社會研究季刊社, 1997 7 施正鋒, 《台灣人的民族認同》，台北：前衛出版社，2000 8 陳銘城, 《海外台獨運動四十年》, 台北, 自立晚報設文化出版社, 1992 9 陳隆志, 《台灣的獨立與建國》, 台北, 月旦出版社股份有限公司, 1993 10 彭明敏, 《自由的滋味》, 台北, 桂冠出版社, 1990 11 陳佳宏, 《海外台獨運動史》, 台北, 前衛出版社, 1998. 8.

(14) Wu Nai-teh pointed out that ethnicity is crucial for Taiwan’s political divergence since the ethnic identities are reached by the self-recognition gained from the history and certain social benefits (political, economic, and cultural resource) enjoyed by certain groups. However, the line between Ben shen ren (local Taiwanese) and Wai shen ren (mainlanders) is loose and insignificant in daily life, the tension is mainly shown when it comes to politics, hence, the identity issue is often used in political activities and mobilization.12 In accordance with the topic of this research, the literature cited here would be the researches that examined the variables in the Presidential elections in Taiwan, especially. 政治大 main strategy to differentiate 立political parties in the Presidential election in 2000, 2004 the national identity. The literature proved that the national identity has been used as the. ‧ 國. 學. and 2008.. Niu Tse-hsun in his PhD thesis, campaign strategies of Presidential candidates- A Case. ‧. Study of 2000 Presidential election, mentioned that the KMT devoted a lot of effort in telling the voters that a pro-independence ruling party would lead to a hostile cross-strait. sit. y. Nat. relationship. In the campaign, the DPP legitimately promoted its “Taiwanese shall rule their own country” ideology after Beijing sent its verbal warning, and the result of that. io. al. n. public opinion13.. er. year’s election showed the Taiwan identity was no longer a taboo, but an awakening of. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. Shaw Chong-hai and Tang Yu-li believed people have stronger ethnic identity would be more willing to participate in politics.14 The most significant example was the DPP’s 228 Hand in Hand to Protect Taiwan activity in 2004 which attracted two millions of people. 吳乃德,〈省籍意識、政治支持和國家認同〉, 張茂桂等著《族群關係與國家認同》, 台北, 業強出版社, 2013 13 鈕則勳, 〈總統候選人之競選傳播策略--以公元二 OOO 年我國總統大選為例〉, 博士論文, 國立政治大學政治學系, 2001 14 邵宗海, 唐玉禮, 〈台灣地區的族群差異意識與政治參與〉, 會議論文, 政治大學國家發展研究所, 2004 12. 9.

(15) to participate15. A survey conducted by TVBS on March 1st showed that 18% of the participants (360,000 people) identified themselves as Taiwanese and they were DPPaffiliated16. The figure was extremely critical for a tight competition. With the Taiwan identity being successfully raised, the 2004 Presidential election was a battle between “Taiwan identity” and “China identity” Professor of the Department of Political Science from the National Chen Chi University, Sheng Shing-yuan, believed that the unification/independence issue would no doubt bring huge impact on the elections which might help the DPP at the beginning, but it might become an obstruction later17.. 治政 Professor Shen was right, the identity card could not save大 the DPP in 2008 since the KMT 立 candidate also identified himself as a Taiwanese, so it was no longer effective to use the ‧ 國. 學. identity issue as the main campaign strategy. In fact, both parties concentrated more on social topics like economic development, pension reform, and so on.. ‧. The economic voting theory explained the reason why the China-friendly KMT party. y. Nat. won the Presidential elections in 2008 and 2012, when Taiwan identity surpassed the dual. sit. identity (both Taiwanese and Chinese) and became the mainstream. The theory was. er. io. developed by Michzol S. Lewis-Beck in 1988. 18 The economic voting theory believes. al. iv n C keep parties in office, bad times cast them out. The U h e n g c h i economic voter, who holds the government responsible for economic performance, rewarding or punishing it at the ballot n. economic conditions shape election outcomes in the democratic countries. Good times. box. Although voters do not look exclusively at economic issues, they generally weigh those more heavily than any others19. In Taiwan’s case, the voters considered cross-strait. 手牽手護台灣兩百萬人破台紀錄, 蘋果日報, Feb 29th, 2004, http://www.appledaily.com.tw/appledaily/article/headline/20040229/747784/ 16 最新總統民調, 連宋 43%, 扁呂 36%, TVBS, Mar 1st, 2004, http://news.tvbs.com.tw/other/380727 17 盛杏湲, 〈統獨議題與台灣選民的投票行為:一九九 0 年代的分析〉, 政治大學選舉研究中心, 2002 18 Lewis-Beck, Michzol S., Economic and Elections: The Major Western Democracies, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1988 19 Lewis-Beck, Michael S., & Stegmaier, Mary, “Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes”, Annual Review of Political Science, June 2000 15. 10.

(16) cooperation would benefit Taiwan’s economy, and the DPP’s pro-independence ideology would only stress the cross-strait relationship. Conformity theory can be applied in 2016’s Presidential election after Zhou Tzu-yu incident took place. Many people felt their national identity was challenged, and the entire society was angry. Based on the conformity theory, many people, while making voting decisions, are affected by or take into account how other people might vote20, therefore, when most voters showed their support for Tsai Yin-wen, it might encourage the swing voters to vote for the DPP.. 政治大 In order to reach both theoretical 立 and practical significance, the thesis will discuss identity 1.6 Methods. theories first to provide an idea of what identity is and how it is formed. By reviewing the. ‧ 國. 學. theories and findings proposed by experts in the field, I hope to explain why Taiwanese’ China identity dropped to 4.1% in 2016 from the figure of 25.5% in 1992.21 Psychologists. ‧. have proved that events might trigger the change of attitudes, even adults can be. y. Nat. influenced by political events, in the same way, children can be affected directly, or. er. io. sit. indirectly as well.22. Valentino and Sears found events with regularity and excitement were the most suitable. n. al. i n U. v. for their “event-driven socialization” research, therefore, they observed teenagers’. Ch. engchi. attitudes during the Presidential elections to prove their party preferences would be influenced by events happened during the elections, and their result showed that teenagers’ political socialization was connected to their intense political participation. 23 Hence, major political events took place before the democratization and during Taiwan. 20 Coleman, Stephen, “A test for conformity in voting behavior”, Program Evaluation Division of Minnesota Office of the Legislative Auditor (OLA). November 1997 21 Changes in the Taiwanese/Chinese Identity of Taiwanese as Tracked in Surveys by the Election Study Center, National Chengchi University, 2016 http://esc.nccu.edu.tw/app/news.php?Sn=166# 22 Valentino, Nicholas A., & Sears, David O., “Event-driven Political Communication and the Pre-adult Socialization of Partisanship Political Behavior”, Political Behavior, 1998 23 Sears, David O., & Valentino, Nicholas A., “Politics Matters: Political Events as Catalysts for Pre-adult Socialization”, The American Political Science Review, 1997. 11.

(17) Presidential elections from 1996 to 2016 will be reviewed in Chapter three, moreover, data collected from various credible surveys regarding identity trend will be crosschecked to locate the major turning points of national identity on history. Last but not the least, in-depth interviews with major parties and official organizations will be conducted to examine if the adjustments have been made to keep up with the growing Taiwan identity trend. 1.6.1 List of interviewees 1. Mr. Lin Cho-shui, master theoretician of the TIM. 政治大. 2. Mr. Chang Jung-kung, former deputy Secretary General of the KMT. 立. 3. Ms. Ho Meng-hua, deputy Director of the Youth Affairs Division of the DPP. ‧ 國. 學. 4. Mr. Lin , Choung-sheng, deputy Director of Department of China Affairs of the DPP. 1.7 Thesis Structure. ‧. The thesis contains five chapters. The first chapter includes the introduction to the topic,. y. Nat. literature review in which the theories adopted in the thesis and the methods for. al. er. io. sit. conducting the study.. n. The second chapter provides theoretical framework which is composed of major theories. Ch. regarding identity and behaviors.. engchi. i n U. v. The third chapter reviews major political events before the democratization and took place during the past six Presidential elections. Sun Flower Movement (2014), as a major recent event, will be discussed in this chapter as well. The data conducted by credible institutions will be analyzed to locate the major turning points in the shaping of Taiwan identity. The forth chapter is the interview analysis from which I expect to prove the major political parties and governmental offices do take the growing Taiwan identity into consideration when it comes to policy making.. 12.

(18) The fifth chapter will conclude the political implication of the growing Taiwan identity, provide the prediction regarding future cross-strait policies. Adjustments toward crossstrait policies from Beijing will be discussed as supplementary to have a more comprehensive idea about how the PRC’s reaction towards the growing Taiwan identity.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. 13. i n U. v.

(19) Chapter 2 – Theoretical Framework 2.1 Definition of identity In the last decade of the 20th century, scholars began to realize that self-identity would strongly affect individual’s recognition towards the social structure and outside world, and further shape the political attitude, behavior and value of a group. The identity issue started to attract attention from politic scholars as a variable that explains political behavior and phenomenon. Scholars came up with different disciplines explaining the concept of identities yet they managed to reach an emerging consensus that identities are. 政治大. among the most normatively significant and behaviorally consequential aspects of politics.24 There are numerous ways to define the concept of identities, among them I. 立. found the four non-mutually-exclusive types of social identities defined by Rawi Abdelal,. ‧ 國. 學. Yoshiko M. Herrera, Alastair Iain Johnston and Rose McDermott in their article “Identity as a Variable (2006)” were the most suitable definitions to explain identities in modern. ‧. nations.25. 1. Constitutive norms:. y. Nat. sit. There are some basic rules followed by a collective identity, normally those are the. al. er. io. practices that define one specific identity and lead other actors to recognize it. Norms can. n. be unwritten (約定俗成) or codified (明文規定), and serve as collective expectations for. Ch. i n U. v. members of the group. When practices are also taken as obligations, they may be seen by the group as ethical.. engchi. From the point of view of socialization, an ultimate internalization of constitutive norms is extremely important, the collective expectations of an identity group will eventually to be taken for granted by new members, for example, Europeans adopt Copenhagen. 24 Smith, Rogers M., “Identities, Interests, and the Future of Political Science”, Perspectives on Politics, 2004. 25 Abdelal, Rawi, Herrera, Yoshiko, Johnston, Alastair, & Mcdermott, Rose, “Identity as a Variable”, Perspectives on Politics, 2006. 14.

(20) Criteria (market economy, democratic polity and respect of human rights) to define European-ness. There are three major signs in the process of internalization: 1. Logic of appropriateness: norms sometimes bias choice and that is to say for one identity, certain behaviors are consciously excluded as inappropriate or vice versa; 2. Common sensible: decisions are made based on the common sense that formed by the norms which means sometimes the options are barely considered;. 治政大powerful form of identity. completely unconsciously, out of habit and this is the most 立. 3. Logic of habituation: norms may be so deeply internalized that they are acted upon. 2. Social purposes: (shared purpose, secret mission). ‧ 國. 學. The content of a collective identity may be purposive, in the sense that the group is. ‧. brought by specific goals. An easier way to explain the purposive content is that what groups want depends on who they think they are. People can learn a group’s interests,. Nat. sit. y. goals, or preferences by their purposive content.. al. er. io. Both normative and purposive content of an identity may press obligations on members,. v. n. but in different ways: constitutive norms impose an obligation to engage in practices that. Ch. i n U. reconstitute the group, while social purposes create obligations to bring the members of. engchi. the group closer. Literature on nationalist movements and national identities has identified various purposive claims from the cultivation of an identity as a purpose in itself to the creation of a state, for example, the post-Soviet Union societies’ “return to Europe”. 3. Relational comparisons: The content of a collective identity is also defined by what it is not. Unlike individual identity, group identities are fundamentally social and relational, defined by the actors’ integration with and relationship to others. Since group identities are constructed, we. 15.

(21) know that identities may be changed based on the interaction with others. Scholars have already identified three comparisons: 1. One identity is different from others; 2. The relative status of an identity compared to others; 3. The existence of level of hostility presented by other identities towards one identity. 4. Cognitive models: The cognitive content of a collective identity describes how group membership is. 治政 that allows members of a group to understand their 大 social, political, and economic 立 conditions.. associated with explanations of how the world works, like a wouldview, or a framework. ‧ 國. 學. Based on the cognitive perspectives, race, ethnicity, and nation are not things in the world but ways of seeing the world, and the ways of reasoning are distinct to particular identity. ‧. groups, i.e. Eastern and Western identities have different ways of thinking. In one culture,. y. Nat. the identity can strongly affect the interpretation of both the present and the past like. sit. Anthony D. Smith argued “subjective perception and understanding of the communal. er. io. past each generation...is a defining element in the concept of cultural identity 26”, for. al. n. example, the shared colonial experiences.. i n C hengchi U 2.1.1 Understanding of National Identity. v. Under the big picture of identity, national identity has been a well-discussed subfield. In the field of politics, there are three major theories in studying collective identity, primordialism, structuralism (instrumentalism) and constructivism.. 26 Smith, Anthony D., “National Identity and the Idea of European Unity”, Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1992. 16.

(22) 1. Primordialism Primordialism believes an ethnic group is built by people who share the same blood, language, and culture27, these connections are so tight that the group members are born with a strong sense of belonging. Based on this perspective, national identity is inherited from the common ancestors. Primordialism is mainly supported by anthropologists.. 2. Structuralism/ Instrumentalism Instrumentalism explains identity as a political instrument, and national identity is built by the government or political parties for their own interests28. For example, leaders use. 政治大. national identity to consolidate the unity and achieve political goals. National identity is an instrument for collective interests, and it is constructed by political elite.. 立. 3. Constructivism. ‧ 國. 學. Constructivists believe that identity is constructed by individual’s experience in life, therefore it is a product of socialization29. Since each society has its own norms and. ‧. obligations; common missions; interactions with different identities and their own. y. sit. io. al. er. identity.. Nat. worldviews, constructivism provides better explanation for the forming of national. n. Constructivism has not only received support from Western and Taiwan scholars but has. Ch. i n U. v. also served as the theoretical foundation of Taiwan independent movements. Theories are. engchi. usually greatly inspired by the development of contemporary comparative politics and international relation theories, therefore from the definitions of national identity proposed by domestic scholars mentioned in Chapter 1, we can know that they were heavily influenced by constructivism. 2.1.2 Event-driven socialization. 27 Geertz, Clifford, The Interpretation of Cultures, New York, Basic Books, Inc., Publishers, 1973 28 施正鋒, 《台灣政治建構》, 臺北市, 前衛出版社, 1999 29閰小駿, 《政治認同理論：我們是誰？》, 香港, 香港中文大學, 2016. 17.

(23) Psychologists have proved that events might trigger the change of attitudes, adults can be influenced by political events, in the same way, children can be affected directly, or indirectly as well. 30 Valentino and Sears found that presidential campaigns were occasions for increased crystallization of partisan attitudes among adolescents.31 They observed teenagers’ attitudes during the Presidential elections to prove their party preferences would be influenced by events happened during the elections, and their result showed that teenagers’ political socialization was connected to their intense political participation during that time. Furthermore, the research showed that most of the events that have greater impact were. 政治大 Kennedy. The uncomfortable 立events stay in young generation’s mind and influence the. bad and tragic incidents, for example Vietnam War and the assassination of John F.. ‧ 國. 學. contemporary politics.. This theory can be applied in Taiwan’s case, the 228 incident (1947) and 1979 Kaohsiung. ‧. incident were two significant factors in the construction of Taiwan identity, later some controversial events unexpectedly played critical roles in the Presidential elections, for. Nat. sit. y. instance 1996 Taiwan crisis, 319 shooting incident in 2004, and Chou Tzu-yu incident in. io. formed a great power that brought changes.. n. al. er. 2016. The events mentioned above unified national consciousness in a short time and. i n Ch 2.3 Constructivism in Taiwan identity engchi U. v. Taiwan citizen’s political persuasions shifted when the new national identities were formed. Under the ruling of the authoritarian KMT government from 1945 to 1987, most citizens identified themselves as Chinese, hence, the goal of future Cross-strait relationship was to achieve the unification by recovering the mainland. After the democratization, more people embraced dual identity (both Chinese and Taiwanese),. 30 Valentino, Nicholas A., & Sears, David O., “Event-driven Political Communication and the Pre-adult Socialization of Partisanship Political Behavior”, Political Behavior, 1998 31 Sears, David O., & Valentino, Nicholas A., “Politics Matters: Political Events as Catalysts for Pre-adult Socialization”, The American Political Science Review, 1997. 18.

(24) therefore, maintaining the status-quo has become the mainstream ideology, however, around a decade after the localization, Taiwan identity surpassed the dual identity in 200532. Based on constructivism, Taiwan’s national identity is constructed by internal and external factors. Internal factors mean the recognition towards statehood from politic elites and nationals. External factors are recognitions toward Taiwan’s status from the international society, and among these recognitions, PRC’s attitude is the most important factor in constructing Taiwan’s national identity, because as a strong power, Beijing is capable of deciding how other countries recognize Taiwan33.. 治政 The external pressure aims at maintaining the cross strait大 status-quo has been competing 立 with the growing Taiwan identity and the demand for Taiwan independence. Such ‧ 國. 學. confrontation has great impact on future cross-strait relations, in fact, Beijing has adjusted its policies to cope with the emerging Taiwan independent consciousness, for example,. ‧. the passing of Anti-secession Law in 2005 as a warning to Chan Shui-bian administration and the signing of Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) in 200834as a. sit. y. Nat. reward for President Ma Ying-jeou’s cooperation.. al. er. io. Next, major political events took place on Taiwan history after 1947 will be reviewed to. v. n. discuss the mutual effect brought by the internal national identity and external recognition. Ch. (from the People’s Republic of China).. engchi. i n U. 32 Changes in the Taiwanese/Chinese Identity of Taiwanese as Tracked in Surveys by the Election Study Center, National Chengchi University, 2016 http://esc.nccu.edu.tw/app/news.php?Sn=166# 33 吳威麒, 〈由社會建構論詮釋陳水扁執政時期台美關係的身分認同與戰略分歧-以兩次總統大選公民投票為例〉, 碩士論文, 國立政治大學外交研究所, 2012 34 陳牧民,〈台灣國家認同研究的現況與展望〉, 施正鋒主編,《國家認同之文化論述》, 台北, 翰盧圖書出版公司, 2006. 19.

(25) Chapter 3 – Political Events and data cross-analysis Based on the “event-driven socialization” theory which was mentioned earlier, people are easily influenced by major political events that took place in their adolescence. These political events play critical roles in shaping a person’s identity, and consequently the political behavior. In this chapter, the development of Taiwan identity will be introduced, and major political events will be reviewed to see how this growing Taiwan identity has influenced the Presidential elections from 1996 to 2016. 3.1 Development of Taiwan Identity. 治政大 of the Dutch occupation in The island's modern history can be traced back to the period 立 the 17 century. At that time, there were no signs of any administrative structure of the th. ‧ 國. 學. Chinese Imperial Government, and most of the residents on the island were aboriginals living in separate territories. The Dutch brought in Chinese men as migrant workers, most. ‧. of them settled on the island and married aborigine wives.. y. Nat. In 1662 Cheng Cheng-kung (Koxinga), a loyalist of the old Ming dynasty, defeated the. sit. Dutch and the Kingdom of Tungning was founded. The Cheng regime was the first Han. al. er. io. regime on the island, it established Chinese education institution which laid the. v. n. foundation of Chinese culture. The regime was welcomed by the Han residents who. Ch. i n U. settled in Taiwan during Dutch occupation. The Kingdom was later defeated by Qing emperor.. engchi. Qing government was not very enthusiastic in developing the island, numerous conflicts between the local population and officials sent from China from time to time, leading to the well-known saying in those days: "Every three years an uprising, every five years a rebellion." (三年一小反、五年一大亂) After realizing Taiwan’s geostrategic value, the Qing authority decided to declare Taiwan to be a province in 1885, 10 years before it was ceded to Japan.. 20.

(26) After the signing of Treaty of Shimonoseki in April, 1885, The Taiwan Republic was established in June and issued its Independence Declaration. However, the Republic aimed more at resisting the upcoming Japanese ruling than creating a self-ruling country. This short-lived Republic was a failed attempt, yet a valuable start-up in the forming of Taiwan identity35. Generally, it is believed that Taiwanese has not yet developed the concept of national identity before 1895, what they had was a local identity which was merely a resistance against the ill administration of the rulers36.. 治政大 opinions with each other. network and made it easier for people on this island to exchange 立 The common feeling of being treated as the second-class citizens pushed the forming of The modernization brought by the Japanese government connected the transportation. ‧ 國. 學. an island-wide identity, therefore Anti-Japanese armed resistances in Taiwan took place frequently during the first two decades of Japanese ruling period.37 However, the purpose. independence.. ‧. of the local resistances at that time was to get rid of Japanese ruling, not to declare. y. Nat. sit. The armed resistances were replaced by a more civic method, The Petition Movement for. al. er. io. the Establishment of a Taiwanese Parliament, the petition movement was motivated by. v. n. Taiwanese’ ethnic consciousness, moreover, at that time, the Taiwan identity mingled. Ch. i n U. with a strong Han ethnic identity. That is to say, the purpose of the petition movement. engchi. was to achieve a complete autonomy, not to found the Republic of Taiwan. To cope with the potential Taiwan independence movement, the Japanese government adopted “Japanization policy” to assimilate Taiwanese in 1937 which greatly diminished the ethnic unrest. People who were born on the island during 1895 to 1945 were regarded as Japanese, they were culturally assimilated, yet they were still aware of the difference. 35 陳佳宏, 《海外台獨運動史》, 台北, 前衛出版社, 1998 36 陳明成, 〈陳芳明現象及其國族認同研究〉, 國立成功大學歷史學系碩博士班, 2002 37 陳儀深, 〈台獨主張的起源與流變〉, 《台灣史研究》第十七卷第二期, 中央研究院台灣史研究所, 2011. 21.

(27) between their Taiwan identity and the Japan identity of the ruling class. However, the boundary between their Taiwanese and Chinese identities was not very clear38, hence, when the World War II ended in 1945, quite a lot of Taiwanese were glad to get rid of the Japanese and excited about the “return to the motherland” as citizens of the victorious nation39. The happy days did not last long, local Taiwanese soon realized the new government from China turned out to be corrupt and uncivilized. The conflicts between local Taiwanese and the newcomers deteriorated which eventually led to an island-wild antigovernment uprising.. 治政 On February 28 , 1947, a dispute between a female大 cigarette vendor and an anti立 smuggling officer triggered civil disorder and led to large-scale demonstrations which th. ‧ 國. 學. were repressed by brutal military force. The KMT government executed a whole generation of local leading figures, and the remaining intellectuals with political. ‧. ambitions were forced to leave Taiwan in order to escape the executions or imprisonment.. y. Nat. The anti-government sentiment soon aroused a strong Taiwan identity that asked for. sit. political independence, therefore, the February 28th incident was deemed as the origin of. n. al. er. io. Taiwan independence consciousness.. i n U. v. We can see the Taiwan identity among locals was having a major change in 1947, from. Ch. engchi. the Taiwan identity mingled with a strong Han ethnic identity which asked for a complete autonomy under the Japanese colonial government to the Taiwan identity that pursued Taiwan independence. These oversea Taiwan independence activists devoted themselves in overturning the autocracy in Taiwan, they set up independence-seeking organizations and the publication. 38 黃昭堂, 《台灣那想那利斯文》, 台北, 前衛出版社, 1998 39 陳儀深, 〈台獨主張的起源與流變〉, 《台灣史研究》第十七卷第二期, 中央研究院台灣史研究所, 2011. 22.

(28) they issued raised up the spirit among the oversea activists and encouraged the activists at home. Chungli Incident that took place in 1977 was the first spontaneous street protest in response to an alleged vote-rigging by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). The incident was followed by a large-scale violent demonstration which encouraged the young locals participating in politics after three decades of the suppression. 40 Moreover, the new generation of political elites made politics less terrifying, more and more intellectuals joined Tang-wai (outside the ruling party) movements41. At this time, Taiwan’s political. 政治大. demand has passed ethnic issues, and marched forward to a higher level request-the localization42.. 立. In 1979, the United States transferred its recognition to the People’s Republic of China. ‧ 國. 學. (PRC) which stirred up public’s anger toward incapable government. Eleven months later, a peaceful demonstration requesting for more democracy took place in Kaohsiung, and. ‧. the participants were arrested. The trials received a lot of attention from abroad, facing the huge pressure from the international public opinion, the KMT regime did not send. Nat. sit. y. anyone to the chair which made people realized the government was shakable. These two. io. Taiwan identity.. er. events gradually facilitated the political reform and helped shaping the modern-day. al. n. iv n C The lift of the Martial Law in 1987hremoved the ban on e n g c h i Unewspaper publication and the forming of political parties, it was regarded as the beginning of Taiwan’s democratization. Temporary Provisions Effective during the Period of National Mobilization for Suppression of the Communist Rebellion which allowed the President to be exempted from term limits was ceased in 1991 by then President, Lee Teng-hui43. On May 15, 1992, the Legislative Yuan finally passed a bill that revising Article 100 of the criminal law,. 40詹嘉雯, 〈中壢事件與台灣政治轉型〉, 碩士論文, 國立中央大學歷史研究所碩士在職專班, 2007 41 李筱峰,《臺灣史 100 件大事（下）戰後篇》,台北, 玉山社出版公司, 1999 42劉文斌, 〈台灣國家認同變遷下的兩岸關係〉, 博士論文, 國立政治大學中山人文社會科學研究所, 2003 43 刑法第一百條修正案, 台灣大百科全書, 文化部, http://nrch.culture.tw/twpedia.aspx?id=3893. 23.

(29) whereby laws concerning “conspiracy to incite insurrection"(陰謀內亂罪) and “public advocation of insurrection"(言論內亂罪) were repealed 44 , people on the island was finally granted the freedom of speech. The political effect brought up by the democratization initiated back in late 1980’s gradually constructed a national identity based on citizen’s pursuit of the constitutional system and human right. Despite the public has not yet reached an uniform goal regarding Taiwan’s future due to Taiwan’s unique politic development, people’s determination of defending the freedom and democracy is so strong that this force has always been able to. 政治大 From the surveys conducted by the Election Study Center of National Chengchi 立 University, we can see Taiwan identity has been increasing since the 1990’s, and in reconcile the differences and unite the people.. ‧ 國. 學. 199545, Taiwan identity surpassed China identity for the first time, it is obvious that the essence of the national identity has changed and the evolving national identity has played. ‧. a critical role in Taiwan’s Presidential elections.. sit. y. Nat. 3.2 Presidential elections from 1996 to 2016. al. er. io. Taiwanese had been living under the Martial Law and White Terror for a very long time,. n. the public was usually silent except during election season. Elections provided dissidents. Ch. i n U. v. the chances to speak which elevated the public’s political awareness, we can say that. engchi. Taiwan’s democratization was carried out simultaneously with elections 46 . Sears and Valention’s research proved that political events influence adolescents’ political attitude and behavior, especially large-scale events that take place regularly, for example,. 44 Li, Hsiao-feng, “From mastering people to people as masters”, Wu San Lien Foundation for Taiwanese Historical Materials, 2001, http://www.twcenter.org.tw/thematic_series/history_class/tw_window/e02_20010521 45 台灣民眾臺灣人/中國人認同趨勢分佈(1992 年 06 月~2016 年 12 月) , 政治大學選舉研究中心, 2016 http://esc.nccu.edu.tw/app/news.php?Sn=166# 46 李筱峰, 〈美麗島事件的回顧與省思〉, 美麗島座談會發言稿, 1999, http://taup.yam.org.tw/announce/9912/991208-d.htm. 24.

(30) Presidential elections47. Therefore, major political events happened in each Presidential election on the island will be examined to analyze the relations between Taiwan identity tendency and the outcome of the Presidential elections. 3.2.1 First Presidential election in 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis 1995-1996 In May, 1995, former President Lee Teng-hui was issued a visa to the United States and one month later he gave a political speech “Always In My Heart” (民之所欲長在我心) in Cornell University. President Lee’s visit to the United States upset the PRC, Beijing. 政治大. fired the first missile in July, 1995 as a protest. The missile was targeting an area near. 立. northern Taiwan. The second phase of the missile crisis started by PRC’s statement of. ‧ 國. 學. launching a military exercise during March 8th to 15th, 1996. On March 8th 1996, the U.S. dispatched USS Independence to the Taiwan Straits and as promised, People’s Liberty Army (PLA) fired 4 missiles to Keelung and Kaohsiung, the busiest business ports in. ‧. Taiwan from March 8th to 15th, 1996. PRC’s provocation was repressed by the United. y. Nat. States’ intervention, on March 11th, 1996, USS Nimitz met with USS Independence. Ten. er. io. sit. days later, Lee Teng-hui was elected as R.O.C. President.. The purpose of the missile exercise in 1995 was to show Beijing’s discontent of President. n. al. i n U. v. Lee’s visit to the U.S. And the following missile test was to manipulate Taiwan’s first. Ch. engchi. Presidential election. The more general aim of Beijing’s fireworks was to stop Taiwan from pursuing independence. President Lee’s victory showed Beijing that its threats and intimidation were ineffectual, in fact, the People's Republic of China's round of missile tests and live-fire military exercises have only enhanced people’s support for President Lee. The Taiwan Strait Crisis from 1995 to1996 made Taiwanese realize the peaceful reconnection between two straits was superficial and vulnerable. Taiwanese was angered 47 Sears, David O., & Valentino, Nicholas A., “Politics Matters: Political Events as Catalysts for Pre-adult Socialization”, The American Political Science Review, 1997. 25.

(31) by Beijing’s threat, therefore, the Taiwanese demonstrated their firm determination of protecting Taiwan’s sovereignty by their votes. President Lee’s victory stirred up the Taiwan identity among Taiwanese, and the missile confrontation has further made the cross-strait relations and national identity the most discussed topics in the following Presidential elections, moreover, one strategy for the candidates to gain support was to claim their “Taiwan identity”. President Lee knew the ethnic divergence and identity disorientation were dangerous for Taiwan. In order to shorten the ethnic gap, President Lee proposed the concept of “New Taiwanese”（新台灣人）based on constructivism. Lee’s concept defined nationalism as. 政治大. a self-consciousness of royalty and protection toward a political entity based on the. 立. approval to the group culture, and this self-consciousness can be developed regardless the. ‧ 國. 學. time when members join the group or from where the new members are from. The New Taiwanese concept slowly reconstructed Taiwan’s national identity, in. ‧. President Lee’s four-year term, Taiwan identity reached a 12.8% growth, and the China identity decreased by 5%. President Lee’s localization strategy was taken over and. y. Nat. sit. promoted to a higher level by his successor, President Chen Shui-bian.. n. al. er. io. 3.2.2 Second Presidential election in 2000 - First party rotation A divided KMT Party. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. In 1994, Soong Chu-yu was elected as the first Governor of Taiwan Province, during his four-year tenure, Soong had been able to accumulate support from all over the island, especially in the poorer central and southern counties, by generously investing funds local public infrastructure. Soong was a star in the KMT, however, then President Lee Tenghui favored Lien Chan, who once served as the Premier and the vice-President in Lee’s regime. In order to decrease Soong’s influence, in 1997, Lee Teng-hui agreed with DPP’s proposal of freezing the Taiwan Provincial Government, Soong fell out with Lee ever since. The last straw crushed Soong fell in August 1999, when the KMT decided to nominate the vice-President Lien Chan as its candidate for the upcoming Presidential. 26.

(32) election48. With the strong public support, Soong decided to leave his party and ran as an independent candidate. Soong was the leading figure in the election, therefore, KMT tried its best to take down Soong, on December 9th, 1999, KMT accused Soong of privately taking possession of party poverty while serving as the Secretary General of the party 49 . The accusation seriously damaged Soong’s reputation, Soong lost a lot of supporters. However, the KMT did not benefit from Soong’s scandal, at the end, KMT’s internal strife split the pan-blue votes and gave the DPP the chance to win the election.. 政治大 Facing the upcoming Presidential 立 election in Taiwan, Beijing once again intervened, and Warning from the People's Republic of China. this time it sent verbal threat. The State Council of the People's Republic of China. ‧ 國. 學. published the White Paper on the One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue on February 21st, 2000 which stated: “China is under no obligation to commit itself to rule out the use. ‧. of force. This is by no means directed against Taiwan compatriots, but against the scheme. y. Nat. to create an "independent Taiwan" and against the foreign forces interfering in the. sit. reunification of China, and is intended as a necessary safeguard for the striving for. n. al. er. io. peaceful reunification.50”. i n U. v. On March 15th, 2000, three days before the Presidential election, PRC Premier, Zhu. Ch. engchi. Rong-ji, gave an aggressive comment by saying “Whoever proposes 'Taiwan independence' will be doomed 51”.. 48李登輝：我要開始大聲挺連戰了, 中國時報, August 24th, 1999, http://forums.chinatimes.com/report/vote2000/lien/88082401.htm 49 立委質疑:宋鎮遠買上億元興票哪來的錢?, 中國時報, Dec 10th, 1999, http://forums.chinatimes.com/report/vote2000/soong/88121005.htm 50 一個中國的原則與台灣問題, 中華人民共和國國務院台灣事務辦公室, 國務院新聞辦公室, 北京, 2002 http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2000/content_60035.htm 51 China's "Bottom Line" on Taiwan Issue”, Embassy of The People’s Republic of China in the United States of America, http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/zt/999999999/t36726.htm. 27.

(33) In dealing with the warning from the PRC, both KMT and DPP adjusted their strategies and promoted their policies through mess media. KMT’s candidate, then Vice President Lien Chan, said good bye to President Lee’s “Special state to state relationship” and moved toward to its old pro-unification path. Lien proposed the 10-point proposal (連十條) on cross-strait relations as his cross-strait policy. In 1999, 12.1% of people identifies themselves as Chinese and 42.5% of people had dual identification 52 , therefore, KMT’s goal was to consolidate the support from pan-blue. 政治大 five commercials aimed at attacking DPP’s cross-strait strategies and implying the victory 立 of the pro-independent DPP candidates would lead to a war. KMT released eighty three voters and attract swing voters. Among the forty-nine TV commercials release by KMT,. ‧ 國. 學. newspaper advertisements, and eight of them were to attack Chen Shui-bian’s proindependent claims, one thing worth mentioning is that the KMT used one newspaper. ‧. advertisement to call for ethnic reconciliation53.. y. Nat. DPP released twenty two TV commercials, its cross-strait policy was so controversial. sit. that it only released two TV commercials related to cross-strait issue, one was to. al. er. io. emphasize the DPP would work with the PRC, not fight with it; the other one was to. v. n. counter then PRC Premier, Zhu Rong-ji’s verbal warning with the subtitle of “Elect our. i n Ch . own President, cherish our democracy” engchi U 54. DPP’s goal was to consolidate the voters with Taiwan identity (39.6%) and attract as many as swing voters as they could, therefore, DPP made one TV commercial to remind the public its contribution to Taiwan’s democracy in 2000, the twentieth anniversary of Kaohsiung (Formosa) incident. Moreover, among DPP’s twenty two TV commercials,. 52 台灣民眾臺灣人/中國人認同趨勢分佈(1992 年 06 月~2016 年 12 月) , 政治大學選舉研究中心, 2016 http://esc.nccu.edu.tw/app/news.php?Sn=166# 53 鈕則勳, 〈總統候選人之競選傳播策略--以公元二 OOO 年我國總統大選為例〉, 博士論文, 國立政治大學政治學系, 2001 54 Same as above. 28.

(34) ten of them were spoken in Taiwanese and Hakka55, obviously DPP knew its support was mainly from the grassroot supporters. “Taiwan independence” was not found on DPP’s TV or newspaper advertisements, we can see that in order to attract swing voters, DPP was moving toward to the middle of spectrum, the China Policy White Paper issued on November 15th, 1999 was another strategic adjustment it made to accommodate the mainstream national identity at that time. DPP’s New Middle Way (新中間路線) In October, 1991, DPP adopted Taiwan Independence Clause to set the tone for the. 政治大 Republic of Taiwan." In May, 1999, DPP passed the “Resolution on Taiwan's Future” 立 (台灣前途決議文) in its National Party Congress. Party’s orientation, the essence of the Clause was to "build a sovereign independent. ‧ 國. 學. In the Resolution, DPP recognized that Taiwan was a sovereign nation, any alternation regarding Taiwan’s future shall be decided by all Taiwan residents through referendums56.. ‧. Since DPP recognized that Taiwan was a sovereign nation, building a Republic of Taiwan. sit. y. Nat. was not necessary. The huge shift made by DPP was a strategy to pave the way for future policy making and attract the majority- the swing voters (zhong jian xuan min) in 2000. io. al. n. jian lu xian)57.. er. Presidential election, therefore, the strategy was called the New Middle Way (xin zhong. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. In order to eliminate voters’ concern regarding DPP’s pro-independence intention might lead to a war with Beijing, DPP further issued the “China Policy White Paper” in November, 1999 to reiterate that building a Republic of Taiwan was not DPP’s goal anymore. China Policy White Paper toned down its pro-Taiwan independence position by stating that "Taiwan is a sovereign country, under current Constitution, the name of. 55 Same as above 56 《台灣前途決議文》, 民進黨, May 9th, 1999 57 余莓莓, 〈從民進黨、國民黨報紙競選廣告看台灣意識 vs.中國意識之發展與變遷─1996 年 vs. 2000 年 vs. 2004 年總統大選〉, 台灣師範大學政治學研究所, 2006. 29.

(35) the country is the Republic of China….any change concerning the current status of independence shall be decided by all residents in Taiwan.58" On March 18th, 2000, Lee Yuan-tseh, Dean of the Academia Sinica, publically endorsed Chen’s New Middle Way by expressing his confidence in Chen’s ability of dealing crossstrait issues59. Dean Lee’s endorsement greatly increased Chen’s popularity, in order to maintain this hard-earned precedence, DPP cautiously made a low key in responding to the PRC’s warning. That was why DPP only released two TV commercials related to the coss-strait issue, and “Taiwan independence” was not found on DPP’s TV or newspaper advertisements in 2000 campaign60.. 治政 KMT’s separation increased DPP’s chance of winning,大 but the PRC’s intervention and 立 Chen’s New Middle Way were equally important for Chen’s victory. Chen’s New Middle ‧ 國. 學. Way weakened DPP’s aggressive Taiwan independence-seeking image and pushed the DPP moving toward to the other side of the spectrum which also won him the votes from. ‧. swing voters. Voters were disgusted with Beijing’s “White Paper” on Taiwan and Premier Zhu, Rong-ji’s threat more than they were intimidated, many voters felt that succumbing. sit. y. Nat. to Beijing’s threat would cause bad consequences for Taiwan’s democratization61. At the. io. al. er. end, the DPP received 39.3% of the votes and won the election.. v. n. The ethnic card was played in the election, DPP’s candidate, Chen Shui-bian, had a strong. Ch. i n U. grass root image which made voters felt close to; Soong Chu-yu ’s wife, a Taiwanese,. engchi. also made a good impression with voters and helped Soong to bridge the ethnic gap, however, KMT candidate Lien Chan and his wife made voters felt distanced, their good. 58 陳水扁總統競選指揮中心國家藍圖委員會, 〈跨世紀中國政策白皮書〉, 中華民國行政院大陸委員會, http://www.mac.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=68311&ctNode=6621&mp=1 59 李遠哲在扁營晚會現聲影, 中時電子報, March 18th, 2000, http://forums.chinatimes.com/report/vote2000/main/89031859.htm 60 鈕則勳, 〈總統候選人之競選傳播策略--以公元二 OOO 年我國總統大選為例〉, 博士論文, 國立政治大學政治學系, 2001 61 Copper, John F., “Taiwan's 2000 Presidential and Vice Presidential Election: Consolidating Democracy and Creating a New Era of Politics”, Maryland Series in Cotemporary Asian Studies, 2000, http://digitalcommons.law.umaryland.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1156&context=mscas. 30.

(36) relationship with business people and the KMT’s “black gold” reputation also made voters questioned about KMT’s willingness of caring the people’s livelihood. Statistics showed that 69.1% of voters with high level of Taiwan identity voted for DPP and 53.6% of voters with low level of Taiwan identity voted for Soong Chu-yu, therefore, we can see Taiwan identity began to influence Taiwan’s Presidential elections62. 3.2.3 Third Presidential election in 2004 In 2002, President Chen Shui-bian proposed the One Country on Each Side (一邊一國). 政治大. and in November, 2003, he further raised the idea of having a referendum for making the New Constitution (公投制憲)63. Both ideas greatly irritating Beijing, however, with the. 立. experiences in 1996 and 2000, Beijing realized that its anti-Taiwan independence. ‧ 國. 學. comments would only push Taiwanese away, especially during election season. The PRC was afraid that publicly intervening Taiwan’s Presidential elections would upset Taiwanese and encourage voters to vote for DPP, the party with strong Taiwan identity.. ‧. Therefore, Beijing asked the United States to restrain President Chen Shui Bian’s pro-. sit. y. Nat. independence moves6465.. al. er. io. President Chen’s lost a lot of supporters for his poor performance during his first tenure,. n. plus the external pressure did not allow the DPP to operate the pro-independence topic. Ch. i n U. v. freely in the campaign, therefore, DPP’s strategy was to gain support from voters with. engchi. strong Taiwan identity by promoting its contribution in democratization and protecting Taiwan’s sovereignty.. 62 鄭夙芬, 〈族群認同與總統選舉投票抉擇〉, 政治大學選舉研究中心, 2009 63 陳水扁提出新憲公投時間表, BBC 中文網, November 11th, 2003, http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/trad/hi/newsid_3260000/newsid_3260500/3260567.stm 64 邱泰淵, 〈美中台三邊關係(1996-2005)之研究:從台灣總統選舉因素分析〉, 碩士論文, 國立政治大學東亞研究所, 2005 65 美首度明確表明「反對」台獨公投, TVBS, December 2nd, 2003, http://news.tvbs.com.tw/other/391995. 31.

(37) The DPP organized a rally on February 28th, 2004 to commemorate the tragedy in 1947 which promoted the modern formation of the Taiwanese identity. Facing the accusation from the opponent that it did not identify with or love Taiwan, the KMT came up with an astonishing idea which showed its love to Taiwan and impressed the public. DPP’s 228 Hand in Hand to Protect Taiwan On Aug. 23, 1989, the three Baltic States, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia formed a 2 million-person human chain covering 600km to protest the former Soviet Union's. 政治大 referendums to declare their independence from Russia . 立. occupation. Following the human chain protest, the three countries successfully held 66. ‧ 國. 學. The DPP copied the concept and organized a huge rally on February 28th, 2004, the 300kilometer- long human chain aimed at protecting Taiwan from the intimidation generated by the People’s Republic of China. The rally was a big success, a poll conducted shortly. ‧. after the rally showed that DPP almost caught up with KMT67. The rally provided a silver. sit. y. Nat. lining for the DPP.. io. er. KMT’s “Kiss the Land” Campaign. DPP’s success on February 28th forced KMT to have a counter-event to demonstrate its. n. al. Ch. i n U. v. love for Taiwan as well. On March13th, 2004, KMT organized an anti-Chen Shui-bian. engchi. demonstration. The event, which took place throughout the nation's 25 cities and counties, reached the climax when the presidential candidate, KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) kissed the ground alongside his wife Lien Fang-yu (連方瑀) and KMT Secretary-General Lin, Fong-cheng (林豐正) in front of the Presidential Office. Shortly before Lien's surprise moment, his vice-President candidate, Soong Chu-yu (宋楚瑜) , who led the march in Taichung City, also knelt on the ground with his wife, Chen Wan-shui (陳萬 66 Two million rally for peace, Taipei Times, Feb 29th, 2004, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2004/02/29/2003100533 67 228「牽手護台灣」引國際媒體關注, TVBS, Feb 29th, 2004, http://news.tvbs.com.tw/other/380857. 32.

(38) 水), and kissed the ground68. The fact that the KMT was threatened by the DPP’s rally showed that Taiwan identity was the greatest common factor of the society, and whoever made voters feel they loved Taiwan had the best chance to win the election. March 19th Shooting Incident In the afternoon of March 19th, 2004, one day before the voting day, President Candidate Chen Shui-bian was shot on the street during his campaign activity. Conspiracies about the shooting were raised and so did the unrest of the society. The next day the Central Election Commission announced the vote would be held as scheduled since Chen only. 政治大. had minor injuries. Chen Shui-bian won the election with a narrow margin 0.228%.69. 立. Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2002-2004(III): The Presidential election,. ‧ 國. 學. 2004 released by TEDS showed that 63.1% of interviewees thought that the March 19th shooting influenced the Presidential election the most, and 34.9% of interviewees were influenced while voting70 .. ‧. Lien Chan’s collaboration with Soong, Chu-yu integrated the votes from pan-blue camp. Nat. sit. y. and the KMT was ahead of the DPP from the beginning, therefore, it was difficult for. io. er. pan-blue supporters to accept their lost. But one must say, the reason why the shooting on March 19th was able to receive some sympathy from swing voters and facilitated. n. al. i n U. v. Chen’s victory was because of DPP’s effort in cultivating Taiwan identity in the past four years.. Ch. engchi. Among 80.5% of voters with high Taiwan identity voted for the DPP and 82.6% of voters with low Taiwan identity voted for the KMT, once again the data showed that national identity was still a strong factor in Taiwan’s Presidential election71. (See Table 1). 68 Lien, Soong hold dramatic rally, Taipei Times, Mar 14th, 2004, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2004/03/14/2003102366 69 第 11 任總統(副總統)選舉候選人得票數, 中央選舉委員會, http://db.cec.gov.tw/histQuery.jsp?voteCode=20040301P1A1&qryType=ctks 70 Huang, Shiow-duan, “Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2002-2004(III): The Presidential election, 2004 (TEDS 2004P)”, Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2004 71 鄭夙芬, 〈族群認同與總統選舉投票抉擇〉, 政治大學選舉研究中心, 2009. 33.

(39) Taiwan Identity. DPP. KMT. Samples. Low. 17.4%. 82.6%. 219. Medium. 34.2%. 65.8%. 406. High. 80.5%. 19.5%. 625. Total. 54.4%. 45.6%. 1,250. Table 1 ↑. 政治大 Before the Presidential election in 2008, the PRC’s military power was way ahead Taiwan, 立 3.2.4 Fourth Presidential election in 2008. plus the KMT candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, who was favored by Beijing and had the biggest. ‧ 國. 學. chance to win, hence, the PRC was more confident, it decided not to send aggressive threats but wait patiently for the outcome.. ‧. Without Beijing’s blatant intervention, the DPP had no choice but promoting its pro-. sit. y. Nat. Taiwan identity by attacking Ma’s royalty for Taiwan. KMT did not play the national identity game with the DPP, instead, Ma focus on his goals in achieving economic growth. io. n. al. er. and the peaceful relationship with Beijing.. Ch. DPP’s Taiwan Identity Strategy. engchi. i n U. v. President Chen’s reputation was extremely low, and his pro-independence policies not only hurt the mutual trust between the DPP and Washington, but also caused the impasse in cross-strait relation. The situation was unfavorable for the DPP, in order to consolidate its base-voters (voters with high Taiwan identity), its candidate, Hsieh Chang-ting had been attacking Ma’s Green card (US permanent residence) and “One China Market” issues to build Ma’s unpatriotic image. During the campaign, Hsieh questioned Ma’s possession of Green card, at first Ma denied yet later he held a press release explaining that he obtained Green card in 1977 but he. 34.