Research Question

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Taiwan identity has affected parties when they decide their cross-strait policies and strategies.

1.2 Research Question

Taiwan society has been struggling with identity issue for decades, before 1987, under the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) authoritarian regime, Taiwan citizens were taught to be Chinese and had to be royal to the party (KMT) and the country (Republic of China).

At that time, dissidents were ruthlessly suppressed and punished, so was the local identity.

Fortunately, Taiwan welcomed its democratization thirty years ago, and the political and educational reforms have since encouraged the young generation to be more politically engaged.

The more information people receive, the more confused they are regarding their own identity. People who grow up after 1987 feel less Chinese, and more Taiwanese. There were several events greatly affected national identity, the first one was the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis and the Taiwanese showed their strong will of protecting the sovereignty with their votes in the presidential election, it is worth mentioning that the Taiwan identity increased significantly from 24.1% in 1996 to 34% in 1997¹. (See Figure 1)

The growing trend of Taiwan identity is obvious, yet how much will the trend effect cross-strait remains questionable, this thesis is expected to answer the question of how parties keep the pace with the trend.

1台灣民眾臺灣人/中國人認同趨勢分佈(1992 年 06 月~2016 年 12 月) , 政治大學選舉研究中心, 2016 http://esc.nccu.edu.tw/app/news.php?Sn=166#

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4 Figure 1↓

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Figure 2↑

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6 1.3 Research Assumption

There were several turning points of Taiwanese national identity, the 1947 February 28 incident, 1979 Kaohsiung incident and the democratization began in 1987. More than 60%

of the people who were born after 1987 identify themselves as Taiwanese, and more than 50% of them support Taiwan independence, therefore they are called “Tian Ran Du”(naturally pro-independence) generation.² (See Figure 2)

Identity is shaped by the environment and further influences citizens’ behavior. People with different national identity made different political choices. The Sun Flower Movement in 2014 showed the young generation’s unsatisfaction against the passing of the Cross-strait Service and Trade Agreement (CSSTA) by Ma Ying-jeou administration, the passing process at the Legislative Yuan was described “black box” (lack of transparency).

The movement also reflected young generation’s distrust towards the PRC. The movement further effected the Nine in One local election at the end of 2014, and the Presidential and Congress election in 2016. According to the data collected by the Central Election Committee, the voters were mainly from the Tian Ran Du generation and more than half of this group voted for Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the pro-independence party.³

Since elections are held regularly in Taiwan, political leaders must always follow the wishes expressed by public opinion, hence it is reasonable to say that the Taiwan identity will keep influencing the future politics, especially the cross-strait policies.

2 2017《天下》國情調查Ⅰ：39 歲，民意的斷裂點, 政治社會, 天下雜誌第 614 期, Jan 3rd, 2017 http://www.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5080204

3 台灣智庫：年輕人投票率 74.5％ 補刀終結國民黨, 自由時報, Jan 21, 2016 http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/1579950

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7 1.4 Expected Contribution

As the most debated topic in every Presidential election, the unification/independence issue has become extremely critical for parties to attract young supporters, the major source of votes. This thesis will analyze the cross-strait policies made by parties across the strait for the past two decades to see how much the public opinion has affected the cross-strait situation, and further examine the outcome to find out if the parties have been working on the right track to fulfill their goals. By identifying the factors shaping the cross-strait relations, we might as well predict the future of it.

1.5 Literature Review

It is important to apply theoretical tools and adopt the most suitable theories for studying social phenomenon. In the attempt of discussing the impact brought by the growing Taiwan identity, the first thing is to introduce identity related theories, I will begin with the social identities defined by Rawi Abdelal, Yoshiko M. Herrera, Alastair Iain Johnston and Rose McDermott in their article “Identity as a Variable (2006)” to pave the way to the most popular theories regarding identity-primordialism, instrumentalism and constructivism.

Constructivism emphasizes the construction of identity is influenced by external factors, the thesis intends to explain the evolving identity construction by discussing major political events, therefore I found Sears’s and Valention’s “event-driven socialization”⁴ happens to hold the same view with mine. Their research proved teenagers’ political attitude and behavior could be influenced by the political events which took place during Presidential elections, one thing worth mentioning is that they also found most events that caused greater impact were negative.

Domestic academic opinions also show that constructivism is the most applied theory in analyzing Taiwan’s identity issue. Xiao Gao-yen believes national identity can be defined

4 Sears, David O., & Valentino, Nicholas A., “Politics Matters: Political Events as Catalysts for Pre-adult Socialization”, The American Political Science Review, 1997

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influenced by relations between ethnic groups, political parties and interest groups, and limited by the culture of the society and the political system. National identity is also affected by the interactions with other countries.⁷

The thesis focus on national identity on the island and its impact for the cross-strait relationship, therefore before analyzing the impacts, it is necessary to understand the development of Taiwan identity first. After the 228 incident in 1947, intellectuals with political ambitions went abroad to pursue higher academic achievement and devoted themselves in Taiwan Independence movements. Since 1960’s, Taiwan identity turned into a political issue, and was greatly promoted by oversea Taiwanese Independence activists. Their work still encourages Taiwan identity up to today and the related publication not only documented their contribution but also has served as materials in studying the forming and growth of Taiwan identity, i.e Forty Years of Oversea Taiwan Independent Movement by Chen Ming-chen⁸, Taiwan’s Independence and Founding of State by Chen Lung-chu⁹ andA Taste of Freedom by Peng Ming-ming¹⁰.

Moreover, Chen Fu-pian in his master thesis “History of the Oversea Taiwan Independence Movement”¹¹ also tried to preserve the stories of oversea Taiwan independent activists and remind the young generation how precious the democracy is.

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Wu Nai-teh pointed out that ethnicity is crucial for Taiwan’s political divergence since the ethnic identities are reached by the self-recognition gained from the history and certain social benefits (political, economic, and cultural resource) enjoyed by certain groups. However, the line between Ben shen ren (local Taiwanese) and Wai shen ren (mainlanders) is loose and insignificant in daily life, the tension is mainly shown when it comes to politics, hence, the identity issue is often used in political activities and mobilization.¹²

In accordance with the topic of this research, the literature cited here would be the researches that examined the variables in the Presidential elections in Taiwan, especially the national identity. The literature proved that the national identity has been used as the main strategy to differentiate political parties in the Presidential election in 2000, 2004 and 2008.

Niu Tse-hsun in his PhD thesis, campaign strategies of Presidential candidates- A Case Study of 2000 Presidential election, mentioned that the KMT devoted a lot of effort in telling the voters that a pro-independence ruling party would lead to a hostile cross-strait relationship. In the campaign, the DPP legitimately promoted its “Taiwanese shall rule their own country” ideology after Beijing sent its verbal warning, and the result of that year’s election showed the Taiwan identity was no longer a taboo, but an awakening of public opinion¹³.

Shaw Chong-hai and Tang Yu-li believed people have stronger ethnic identity would be more willing to participate in politics.¹⁴The most significant example was the DPP’s 228 Hand in Hand to Protect Taiwan activity in 2004 which attracted two millions of people

12吳乃德,〈省籍意識、政治支持和國家認同〉, 張茂桂等著《族群關係與國家認同》, 台北, 業強出 版社, 2013

13 鈕則勳, 〈總統候選人之競選傳播策略--以公元二 OOO 年我國總統大選為例〉, 博士論文, 國立政 治大學政治學系, 2001

14 邵宗海, 唐玉禮, 〈台灣地區的族群差異意識與政治參與〉, 會議論文, 政治大學國家發展研究所, 2004

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participants (360,000 people) identified themselves as Taiwanese and they were DPP-affiliated¹⁶. The figure was extremely critical for a tight competition. With the Taiwan identity being successfully raised, the 2004 Presidential election was a battle between

“Taiwan identity” and “China identity”

Professor of the Department of Political Science from the National Chen Chi University, Sheng Shing-yuan, believed that the unification/independence issue would no doubt bring huge impact on the elections which might help the DPP at the beginning, but it might become an obstruction later¹⁷.

Professor Shen was right, the identity card could not save the DPP in 2008 since the KMT candidate also identified himself as a Taiwanese, so it was no longer effective to use the identity issue as the main campaign strategy. In fact, both parties concentrated more on social topics like economic development, pension reform, and so on.

The economic voting theory explained the reason why the China-friendly KMT party won the Presidential elections in 2008 and 2012, when Taiwan identity surpassed the dual identity (both Taiwanese and Chinese) and became the mainstream. The theory was developed by Michzol S. Lewis-Beck in 1988. ¹⁸ The economic voting theory believes economic conditions shape election outcomes in the democratic countries. Good times keep parties in office, bad times cast them out. The economic voter, who holds the government responsible for economic performance, rewarding or punishing it at the ballot box. Although voters do not look exclusively at economic issues, they generally weigh those more heavily than any others¹⁹. In Taiwan’s case, the voters considered cross-strait

15 手牽手護台灣 兩百萬人破台紀錄, 蘋果日報, Feb 29^th, 2004,

http://www.appledaily.com.tw/appledaily/article/headline/20040229/747784/

16 最新總統民調, 連宋 43%, 扁呂 36%, TVBS, Mar 1^st, 2004, http://news.tvbs.com.tw/other/380727

17盛杏湲, 〈統獨議題與台灣選民的投票行為:一九九 0 年代的分析〉, 政治大學選舉研究中心, 2002

18 Lewis-Beck, Michzol S., Economic and Elections: The Major Western Democracies, Ann Arbor:

University of Michigan Press, 1988

19 Lewis-Beck, Michael S., & Stegmaier, Mary, “Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes”, Annual Review of Political Science, June 2000

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cooperation would benefit Taiwan’s economy, and the DPP’s pro-independence ideology would only stress the cross-strait relationship.

Conformity theory can be applied in 2016’s Presidential election after Zhou Tzu-yu incident took place. Many people felt their national identity was challenged, and the entire society was angry. Based on the conformity theory, many people, while making voting decisions, are affected by or take into account how other people might vote²⁰, therefore, when most voters showed their support for Tsai Yin-wen, it might encourage the swing voters to vote for the DPP.

1.6 Methods

In order to reach both theoretical and practical significance, the thesis will discuss identity theories first to provide an idea of what identity is and how it is formed. By reviewing the theories and findings proposed by experts in the field, I hope to explain why Taiwanese’

China identity dropped to 4.1% in 2016 from the figure of 25.5% in 1992.²¹ Psychologists have proved that events might trigger the change of attitudes, even adults can be influenced by political events, in the same way, children can be affected directly, or indirectly as well.²²

Valentino and Sears found events with regularity and excitement were the most suitable for their “event-driven socialization” research, therefore, they observed teenagers’

attitudes during the Presidential elections to prove their party preferences would be influenced by events happened during the elections, and their result showed that teenagers’

political socialization was connected to their intense political participation.²³ Hence, major political events took place before the democratization and during Taiwan

20 Coleman, Stephen, “A test for conformity in voting behavior”, Program Evaluation Division of Minnesota Office of the Legislative Auditor (OLA). November 1997

21 Changes in the Taiwanese/Chinese Identity of Taiwanese as Tracked in Surveys by the Election Study Center, National Chengchi University, 2016 http://esc.nccu.edu.tw/app/news.php?Sn=166#

22 Valentino, Nicholas A., & Sears, David O., “Event-driven Political Communication and the Pre-adult Socialization of Partisanship Political Behavior”, Political Behavior, 1998

23 Sears, David O., & Valentino, Nicholas A., “Politics Matters: Political Events as Catalysts for Pre-adult Socialization”, The American Political Science Review, 1997

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Presidential elections from 1996 to 2016 will be reviewed in Chapter three, moreover, data collected from various credible surveys regarding identity trend will be cross-checked to locate the major turning points of national identity on history.

Last but not the least, in-depth interviews with major parties and official organizations will be conducted to examine if the adjustments have been made to keep up with the growing Taiwan identity trend.

1.6.1 List of interviewees

1. Mr. Lin Cho-shui, master theoretician of the TIM

2. Mr. Chang Jung-kung, former deputy Secretary General of the KMT

3. Ms. Ho Meng-hua, deputy Director of the Youth Affairs Division of the DPP

4. Mr. Lin , Choung-sheng, deputy Director of Department of China Affairs of the DPP 1.7 Thesis Structure

The thesis contains five chapters. The first chapter includes the introduction to the topic, literature review in which the theories adopted in the thesis and the methods for conducting the study.

The second chapter provides theoretical framework which is composed of major theories regarding identity and behaviors.

The third chapter reviews major political events before the democratization and took place during the past six Presidential elections. Sun Flower Movement (2014), as a major recent event, will be discussed in this chapter as well. The data conducted by credible institutions will be analyzed to locate the major turning points in the shaping of Taiwan identity.

The forth chapter is the interview analysis from which I expect to prove the major political parties and governmental offices do take the growing Taiwan identity into consideration when it comes to policy making.

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The fifth chapter will conclude the political implication of the growing Taiwan identity, provide the prediction regarding future strait policies. Adjustments toward cross-strait policies from Beijing will be discussed as supplementary to have a more comprehensive idea about how the PRC’s reaction towards the growing Taiwan identity.

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Chapter 2 – Theoretical Framework 2.1 Definition of identity

In the last decade of the 20th century, scholars began to realize that self-identity would strongly affect individual’s recognition towards the social structure and outside world, and further shape the political attitude, behavior and value of a group. The identity issue started to attract attention from politic scholars as a variable that explains political behavior and phenomenon. Scholars came up with different disciplines explaining the concept of identities yet they managed to reach an emerging consensus that identities are among the most normatively significant and behaviorally consequential aspects of politics.²⁴ There are numerous ways to define the concept of identities, among them I found the four non-mutually-exclusive types of social identities defined by Rawi Abdelal, Yoshiko M. Herrera, Alastair Iain Johnston and Rose McDermott in their article “Identity as a Variable (2006)” were the most suitable definitions to explain identities in modern nations.²⁵

1. Constitutive norms:

There are some basic rules followed by a collective identity, normally those are the practices that define one specific identity and lead other actors to recognize it. Norms can be unwritten (約定俗成) or codified (明文規定), and serve as collective expectations for members of the group. When practices are also taken as obligations, they may be seen by the group as ethical.

From the point of view of socialization, an ultimate internalization of constitutive norms is extremely important, the collective expectations of an identity group will eventually to be taken for granted by new members, for example, Europeans adopt Copenhagen

24 Smith, Rogers M., “Identities, Interests, and the Future of Political Science”, Perspectives on Politics, 2004.

25 Abdelal, Rawi, Herrera, Yoshiko, Johnston, Alastair, & Mcdermott, Rose, “Identity as a Variable”, Perspectives on Politics, 2006

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Criteria (market economy, democratic polity and respect of human rights) to define European-ness.

There are three major signs in the process of internalization:

1. Logic of appropriateness: norms sometimes bias choice and that is to say for one identity, certain behaviors are consciously excluded as inappropriate or vice versa;

2. Common sensible: decisions are made based on the common sense that formed by the norms which means sometimes the options are barely considered;

3. Logic of habituation: norms may be so deeply internalized that they are acted upon completely unconsciously, out of habit and this is the most powerful form of identity.

2. Social purposes: (shared purpose, secret mission)

The content of a collective identity may be purposive, in the sense that the group is brought by specific goals. An easier way to explain the purposive content is that what groups want depends on who they think they are. People can learn a group’s interests, goals, or preferences by their purposive content.

Both normative and purposive content of an identity may press obligations on members, but in different ways: constitutive norms impose an obligation to engage in practices that reconstitute the group, while social purposes create obligations to bring the members of the group closer. Literature on nationalist movements and national identities has identified various purposive claims from the cultivation of an identity as a purpose in itself to the creation of a state, for example, the post-Soviet Union societies’ “return to Europe”.

3. Relational comparisons:

The content of a collective identity is also defined by what it is not. Unlike individual identity, group identities are fundamentally social and relational, defined by the actors’

integration with and relationship to others. Since group identities are constructed, we

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know that identities may be changed based on the interaction with others. Scholars have already identified three comparisons:

1. One identity is different from others;

2. The relative status of an identity compared to others;

3. The existence of level of hostility presented by other identities towards one identity.

4. Cognitive models:

The cognitive content of a collective identity describes how group membership is associated with explanations of how the world works, like a wouldview, or a framework

The cognitive content of a collective identity describes how group membership is associated with explanations of how the world works, like a wouldview, or a framework

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