Chapter 3 – Political Events and data cross-analysis
3.2 Presidential elections from 1996 to 2016
3.2.3 Third Presidential election in 2004
國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a
tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
31
relationship with business people and the KMT’s “black gold” reputation also made voters questioned about KMT’s willingness of caring the people’s livelihood.
Statistics showed that 69.1% of voters with high level of Taiwan identity voted for DPP and 53.6% of voters with low level of Taiwan identity voted for Soong Chu-yu, therefore, we can see Taiwan identity began to influence Taiwan’s Presidential elections62.
3.2.3 Third Presidential election in 2004
In 2002, President Chen Shui-bian proposed the One Country on Each Side (一邊一國) and in November, 2003, he further raised the idea of having a referendum for making the New Constitution (公投制憲)63. Both ideas greatly irritating Beijing, however, with the experiences in 1996 and 2000, Beijing realized that its anti-Taiwan independence comments would only push Taiwanese away, especially during election season. The PRC was afraid that publicly intervening Taiwan’s Presidential elections would upset Taiwanese and encourage voters to vote for DPP, the party with strong Taiwan identity.
Therefore, Beijing asked the United States to restrain President Chen Shui Bian’s pro-independence moves6465.
President Chen’s lost a lot of supporters for his poor performance during his first tenure, plus the external pressure did not allow the DPP to operate the pro-independence topic freely in the campaign, therefore, DPP’s strategy was to gain support from voters with strong Taiwan identity by promoting its contribution in democratization and protecting Taiwan’s sovereignty.
62 鄭夙芬, 〈族群認同與總統選舉投票抉擇〉, 政治大學 選舉研究中心, 2009 63 陳水扁提出新憲公投時間表, BBC 中文網, November 11th, 2003,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/trad/hi/newsid_3260000/newsid_3260500/3260567.stm
64 邱泰淵, 〈美中台三邊關係(1996-2005)之研究:從台灣總統選舉因素分析〉, 碩士論文, 國立政治 大學東亞研究所, 2005
65 美首度明確表明「反對」台獨公投, TVBS, December 2nd, 2003, http://news.tvbs.com.tw/other/391995
‧ 國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a
tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
32
The DPP organized a rally on February 28th, 2004 to commemorate the tragedy in 1947 which promoted the modern formation of the Taiwanese identity.
Facing the accusation from the opponent that it did not identify with or love Taiwan, the KMT came up with an astonishing idea which showed its love to Taiwan and impressed the public.
DPP’s 228 Hand in Hand to Protect Taiwan
On Aug. 23, 1989, the three Baltic States, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia formed a 2 million-person human chain covering 600km to protest the former Soviet Union's occupation. Following the human chain protest, the three countries successfully held referendums to declare their independence from Russia66.
The DPP copied the concept and organized a huge rally on February 28th, 2004, the 300-kilometer- long human chain aimed at protecting Taiwan from the intimidation generated by the People’s Republic of China. The rally was a big success, a poll conducted shortly after the rally showed that DPP almost caught up with KMT67. The rally provided a silver lining for the DPP.
KMT’s “Kiss the Land” Campaign
DPP’s success on February 28th forced KMT to have a counter-event to demonstrate its love for Taiwan as well. On March13th, 2004, KMT organized an anti-Chen Shui-bian demonstration. The event, which took place throughout the nation's 25 cities and counties, reached the climax when the presidential candidate, KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) kissed the ground alongside his wife Lien Fang-yu (連方瑀) and KMT Secretary-General Lin, Fong-cheng (林豐正) in front of the Presidential Office. Shortly before Lien's surprise moment, his vice-President candidate, Soong Chu-yu (宋楚瑜) , who led the march in Taichung City, also knelt on the ground with his wife, Chen Wan-shui (陳萬
66 Two million rally for peace, Taipei Times, Feb 29th, 2004,
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2004/02/29/2003100533 67 228「牽手護台灣」 引國際媒體關注, TVBS, Feb 29th, 2004,
http://news.tvbs.com.tw/other/380857
‧
水), and kissed the ground68. The fact that the KMT was threatened by the DPP’s rally showed that Taiwan identity was the greatest common factor of the society, and whoever made voters feel they loved Taiwan had the best chance to win the election.
March 19th Shooting Incident
In the afternoon of March 19th, 2004, one day before the voting day, President Candidate Chen Shui-bian was shot on the street during his campaign activity. Conspiracies about the shooting were raised and so did the unrest of the society. The next day the Central Election Commission announced the vote would be held as scheduled since Chen only had minor injuries. Chen Shui-bian won the election with a narrow margin 0.228%.69 Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2002-2004(III): The Presidential election, 2004 released by TEDS showed that 63.1% of interviewees thought that the March 19th shooting influenced the Presidential election the most, and 34.9% of interviewees were influenced while voting70 .
Lien Chan’s collaboration with Soong, Chu-yu integrated the votes from pan-blue camp and the KMT was ahead of the DPP from the beginning, therefore, it was difficult for pan-blue supporters to accept their lost. But one must say, the reason why the shooting on March 19th was able to receive some sympathy from swing voters and facilitated Chen’s victory was because of DPP’s effort in cultivating Taiwan identity in the past four years.
Among 80.5% of voters with high Taiwan identity voted for the DPP and 82.6% of voters with low Taiwan identity voted for the KMT, once again the data showed that national identity was still a strong factor in Taiwan’s Presidential election71. (See Table 1)
68 Lien, Soong hold dramatic rally, Taipei Times, Mar 14th, 2004,
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2004/03/14/2003102366 69 第 11 任總統(副總統)選舉 候選人得票數, 中央選舉委員會,
http://db.cec.gov.tw/histQuery.jsp?voteCode=20040301P1A1&qryType=ctks
70 Huang, Shiow-duan, “Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2002-2004(III): The Presidential election, 2004 (TEDS 2004P)”, Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2004
71 鄭夙芬, 〈族群認同與總統選舉投票抉擇〉, 政治大學 選舉研究中心, 2009
‧ 國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a
tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
34
Taiwan Identity DPP KMT Samples
Low 17.4% 82.6% 219
Medium 34.2% 65.8% 406
High 80.5% 19.5% 625
Total 54.4% 45.6% 1,250
Table 1 ↑