• 沒有找到結果。

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the development of the COC or even avoid its implementation. In fact, as Chinese

Foreign minister mentioned, China is in no hurry to conclude an agreement on a COC

(Thayer, 2013). Thus, even when the COC will be one of the most important

advancement in managing the SCS dispute, we consider that firstly it is necessary to

implement faster and less complicate measures to improve the situation in the region,

as for instance measures that provide absolute gains to all the actors involved.

To sum up, the legal approach will be useful, but just after focusing in less sensitive

issues that can prepare the path to discuss sovereignty and resources disputes.

Examples of these issues are in the field of non-traditional security in SCS, as they

affect all the actors involved making them to have a common interest in solving the

problem.

1.3.3 Energy and Non-traditional Security Approach

The academic literature also presents a more recent approach to the SCS issue focus

on energy and non-traditional security. The main idea is that non-traditional security

threats can damage energy and trade imports of littoral states, as well as those of

states with interest in the region. Ho (2006), argues that these kinds of threats have

been overstated due to the number of piracy armed robbery and maritime terrorist

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attacks in the SCS region are very low compared with the proportion of ships that

cross the straits (60,000 yearly). Moreover, this author also presents different national,

bilateral, and multilateral measures that have decreased the risk of piracy attacks.

Despite of these remarks, he concludes that the trade flow and the demand for energy

in the region will increase the dependence on sea transportation, and thus proposes

that countries should move to a cooperative regime in order to strengthen the security

of the SLOCs (Ho, 2006).

In a similar approach, Gautam (2014) shows how Chinese energy policy is concerned

with its dependence on oil imports that can threat its national security. Thus, in order

to achieve energy security, it has been supporting a strategy based on increasing its oil

imports through pipelines, its number of oil tankers, as well as on the development of

a deep blue water fleet that can provide support to its vessels operating far from

Chinese shores. In spite of its efforts, at present pipelines only provide 14% of

Chinese oil import demand; therefore, they only help to diversify its energy imports,

which will still concentrate on sea lines routes.

Although China could rely on the oil global market to protect its imports, it prefers to

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keep developing its military to provide protection to its oil tankers (Gautam, 2011),

which, on the other hand, will cause concerns in other states in the region, especially

those involved in sovereignty disputes with China in the SCS.

From our point of view, we also agree with many of these opinions, and thus we

believe that the approach for managing the SCS issue should be one based on the

energy concerns of the states involved, not with the aim of initiating cooperation on

joint resources development from the beginning, but, firstly, cooperation on joint

protection of sea lines of communication (SLOCs) to allow the flow of trade and

energy without impediments.

In conclusion, the strategic and international politics approach highlights the

importance of military buildups in the region and alliances to maintain disputants’

claims, and to consolidate their positions. However, it can create more tense situations

between different actors, especially if external actors get involved in the issue, which

can cause a more aggressive response from China.

The legal approach pretends to determine and clarify disputants’ claims in order to

initiate a legal process base on International law and UNCLOS legislation. Although

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it will be an important advance in the issue, however China prefers to negotiate the

issue bilaterally, not through an arbitration tribunal. Moreover, even when the

development of a COC will proof useful to decrease tensions in SCS, China will not

accept it as a mean to solve the sovereignty issue, and will still prefer to negotiate

with each disputant and not with ASEAN as a whole.

Both, the legal and the strategic and international politics approach, propose joint

development of SCS resources as a way to move forward in the dispute. We agree it

will be an important advancement in the issue, but we also consider that a more

cautious approach is needed, one in which cooperation starts from less sensitive issues,

for instance SLOCs protection.

The energy and non-traditional security approach is basically concerned with

guarantee energy supplies, mainly oil and gas imports by sea, and with the

non-traditional security threats that can cut this energy imports to Asian countries.

Initiatives that tackle these problems will be easier to agree on due to they focus on

securing the SLOCs, commons that can be used by all the stakeholders in the region,

which implies all of them have a general interest in increasing their protection, this

will make states’ participation synergic, and will produce a win-win situation based on

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absolute gains that will be better accepted than agreements on relative gains, which in

the case of sovereignty and resources in SCS implies dividing the benefits among the

disputants.

In sum, we consider this approach the less controversial because it does not deal

directly with sovereignty or resources in situ, but with the protection of commons,

which is something all states with interest in the region are concerned with. Therefore,

the energy and non-traditional security approach is the one we decided to apply

during this research.

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Chapter 2. Research Design and Methodology