RMBI Newsletter = 風險薈訊, Issue 7 (June 2014)

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(1)風險薈訊 RMBI NEWSLETTER NEWSLETTER RMBI. Risk Management Management and and Business Business Intelligence Intelligence Risk The Hong Hong Kong Kong University University of of Science Science and and Technology Technology The. Risk Management in the Medical Sector 認識香港公營醫療體系的風險管理 Risk management can bring a better decision making and reduce the number of errors, so as to ensure a high quality and effective service being provided. In the past 20 years, the Hong Kong Hospital Authority (HA) showed great support to develop large scale computer-based systems to manage and reduce the risk within the healthcare sector. To have a deeper understanding on how the systems work, we have invited Dr. CP Wong, Chairman of Hong Kong Society of Medical Informatics Ltd to share with us the success and benefits in risk management in Hong Kong public hospitals.. 風險管理有助我們作出適當的決策及減少錯誤，從而提供高質素的服務。在過去二十年，香港醫療管理局（下稱「醫管局」）大力發展電子系統，以減低醫療範疇的風險。我們有幸邀請到香港醫療資訊學會會長王春波醫生，和我們講述公營醫院在風險管理方面所取得的成果。. Implementation of electronic health record In the past, most of the paper health record of patients was being kept in different public hospitals separately. The data was stored in different format and there is no sharing infrastructure between various healthcare providers. Doctors could hardly have a full picture of patients’ medical history for diagnosis and the treatment had been delivered.. 王春波醫生 (左二), 香港醫療資訊學會主席 Dr C P Wong (second left), The Chairman of the Hong Kong Society of Medical Informatics. To improve the quality of healthcare services, the Hospital Authority developed a software called Clinical Management System (CMS) in 1993, which marked the implementation of electronic health record in Hong Kong. All the medical records of patients in 40 public hospitals and over 120 public clinics are stored in a central data base called Electronic Patient Record (ePR) systematically. Dr. Wong mentioned that, within these 21 years, over 9.6 million people’s medical history is stored in this clinical data warehouse.. 電子健康記錄系統的發展在開發電子健康記錄系統前，病人的病歷分散於不同的公營醫院內，亦無統一的儲存方式。由於醫院之間沒有互通病歷的系統，因此醫護人員在診斷時無法全盤得知病人以往的病歷及曾接受過的治療記錄作為對症下藥的依據。為了提高服務質素，醫管局在一九九三年起開發臨床管理系統，是為電子健康記錄發展的先河。至今，本港四十四間公營醫院及超過一百二十間公營診所的病人記錄已儲存於中央資料庫。王醫生說，在過去二十一年，資料庫已儲存了超過九百六十萬名市民的病歷。. CMS is an essential tool for HA to deliver healthcare services 24 hours a day – 7 days a week. It provides a platform for the authorized persons to access patients’ data through the HA’s IT network. All the data stored inside is mobilized. No matter June, 2014 Issue 7. 1.

(2) 風險薈訊 RMBI NEWSLETTER NEWSLETTER RMBI where the patients are, authorized doctors under public health sectors can read the most up to date and comprehensive medical history of the patients. Also, this software can be interoperable for all the authorized staff in HA at the same time. This helps doctors increase the accuracy of diagnosis and save time for making the best decision on delivering treatment.. 臨床管理系統是協助醫管局提供全天候公營醫療服務中不可或缺的一環。這個平台可供醫護人員查看病人的病歷，儲存的所有資料亦有很高的流動性，無論病人身處哪一家公營醫院或診所，獲授權的醫生都可以閱覽病人最新且詳盡的病歷。另外，這套軟件亦可供所有醫務人員同時使用。這不但提高了斷症的準確度，亦節省了診症的時間。. Disease management and control Hospital Authority does not only use computerbased systems in storage of patients’ record, but also uses them in disease management. Apart from day to day computer assisted decision making protocols, it also helps in management of large scale infectious diseases. In 2003, there was a SARS outbreak in Hong Kong. HA developed Electronic Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome System (eSARS) within few days. This system aims at gathering the information of each SARS case, so as to study the trend of the infectious disease. The electronic map locating function of the system found out the outbreak of SARS in Amoy Garden and helped track the origin of pervasion in a short time. The development of eSARS successfully controlled the epidemic of SARS and reduced the number of death. It was the first achievement of using electronic way in public health management and won the Stockholm Challenge Award in 2004.. 疾病管理及控制除了儲存病歷外，醫管局亦採用了電子化系統來管理及監控疾病傳播。二零零三年香港爆發非典型肺炎，醫管局在幾天內設計出eSARS系統。此系統綜合所有患者的個案，分析疫症爆發的趨勢。電子地圖的分析功能在短時間內找出淘大花園爆發疫症並追查病源，成功控制疫情，減低了死亡人數。這是把公共衛生管理電子化後首次取得的成果，並在二零零四年贏得斯德哥爾摩資訊科技挑戰賽的獎項。. Patients’ privacy protection The high mobility of data resulting from the development of CMS has increased the risk of data leakage. Patient privacy and data security have thus become major concerns in the use of electronic health records. The leakage of personal information can bring risk and embarrassment to patients. Therefore, the HA has adopted various physical security protections that provide a certain level of. June, 2014 Issue 7. 保障病人私隱然而，臨床管理系統帶來的流動性亦增加了資料外洩的風險。市民關注使用電子健康記錄所衍生的關乎病人私隱和資料保密的問題。個人資料外洩會為患者帶來風險和不便。因此，醫管局採用了多種方法去保障資料的安全性。首先，只有獲授權的醫護人員方可查閱病人的記錄。這有效確保了只有相關人士或部門才可查閱病人的資料，並用於醫療目的。其次，某些高度敏感的資料，例如一些用以識別身分的資料，均會以加密方式儲存於資料庫。. 2. Risk Management in the Medical Sector.

(3) 風險薈訊 RMBI NEWSLETTER NEWSLETTER RMBI data security to the computer-based system. Firstly, strict access control is needed when viewing patients’ medical history. This ensures that the data can only be retrieved by specific doctors or departments for healthcare-related purposes. Secondly, some of the highly sensitive data, such as identifiers, are encrypted securely in the database.. 此外，醫管局亦設有審核及追蹤系統。該系統會記錄所有使用者的情況，並定期隨機抽樣檢查，以偵測一些可疑或不當使用病人資料的情況。當醫管局接獲有關病人私穩的投訴，便能準確地追查記錄。同時，醫管局亦採取了技術措施，以防止黑客入侵。王醫生指出，根據過往記錄，每天有超過一千名黑客試圖入侵醫管局的臨床管理系統。除了使用防火牆外，所有重要的資料亦會加密以防止外洩。. In addition, there is an audit trail system, which aims at checking users’ records, including what personal data healthcare providers have obtained and when. Random audits will be conducted regularly so as to monitor the use of data. If there are complaints about data privacy, the HA can trace the records accurately. Nevertheless, the HA has adopted technological measures to prevent hackers. Dr. Wong stated that according to the records, more than 1000 people try to hack into the system every day. A firewall is used to protect the system, and important information is encrypted to prevent leakage.. 電腦化系統對風險管理的貢獻. Computerized systems contributing to risk management. 臨床信息系統臨床信息系統是一個大型的電腦化系統，利用電子科技取代傳統的文件儲存，可以幫助醫生即時取得病人的病歷以進行診斷。該系統能提供準確的病歷，節省診症時間從而降低醫療風險。另外，電腦化醫令系統（Computerized Physician Order Entry system）可在醫生處方藥物和診症時提供相關指引，提醒醫生病人會否對某些藥物過敏和藥物的交互作用，以及其他相關的風險。. The CMS System The CMS, a large-scale computer-based system, applies digital technology to replace conventional hard-copy storage. It helps doctors to gain access to patients’ medical records immediately and to make medical decisions directly. The system has reduced medical risk by cutting down the diagnosis time by providing patients’ medical history correctly. Computerized Physician Order Entry systems guide doctors in prescribing and managing patient care. They help to alert doctors to possible drug allergy, interactions, and other risks associated with the management automatically.. June, 2014 Issue 7. 3. 認識香港公營醫療體系的風險管理.

(4) 風險薈訊 RMBI NEWSLETTER NEWSLETTER RMBI The ePR System The ePR System, which collects patients’ data continuously in a central data warehouse, provides a platform for different medical professions to share their patients’ medical history. It allows the HKHA to reduce medical risk by obtaining up-to-date medical history and allergy information at the point of care.. 電子病歷系統電子病歷系統會不斷收集病人的數據並儲存到中央數據庫，以此為平台供醫療人員共用病歷。這有助醫管局從醫院或診所收集到最新的病歷和過敏資料，以減少醫療風險。. The HA Risk Alert Risk Alert is a magazine-like public notice that announces recent serious medical malpractices to the public. It acts as an alert to prevent other doctors from making the same mistakes. It also provides patients with access to the quality of professionals’ medical services. Besides the magazine, daily surveillance of extreme out-of-range laboratory results is carried out by the computer, and doctors are alerted immediately in order to help safeguard patients at risk. 醫管局風險通報《醫管局風險通報》（HA Risk Alert）是由醫管局刊發的雜誌，用以公佈近期的嚴重醫療事故，目的是提醒醫生避免出現相同的錯誤，另外亦會為病人提供途徑，以了解專業醫療服務的水平。此外，由電腦系統進行的化驗室日常監測如有異常發現，會即時通知醫護人員，以防範對病人的風險。. The Adverse Incidents Reporting System The AIRS reporting system encourages users to report near misses and any other clinical risk that has occurred, and forms a repository of risk registers based on this information. This helps in the management of risk analysis and enables the prevention of further risk. How does the system minimize risk?. 不良醫療事件通報系統這個系統鼓勵使用者通報醫療失誤和風險事件，以作為相關事件的綜合記錄。這有助於管理風險分析及避免日後再發生同類事件。. Operational risk All users have the right to access patients’ medical history in the same hospital, and any pattern of abusing the system poses a threat to patients’ privacy. Hence, patient privacy is one of the major concerns of the convenient CMS system.. 系統如何將風險降到最低操作風險所有使用者均有權獲取病人在同一家醫院的病歷，如使用者濫用所獲得病歷資料，會對病人構成私隱外洩的風險。因此，病人隱私是臨床信息系統的主要問題之一。. There are three ways to prevent the leak of patients’ information by the HKHA. The access control system, which only grants access rights to specific departments and doctors, provides the first line of defense against users unnecessarily acquiring information about patients. An audit trail system is also used to check the details of users’ activity, such as the time, the place and the patient checked. If there is a need for investigation, the HA can chase the records accurately and quickly. Disciplinary or criminal proceedings will follow. June, 2014 Issue 7. 要防止病人資料外洩，醫管局可從三方面入手。存取監控系統是防禦的第一線，只有特定的部門和醫生可以存取有關病歷，以防止非相關人士取得病人的資料。此外，追踪系統能檢查存取的詳細記錄，如存取病歷的時間、地點和相關的病人。如有必要進行調查，醫管局可以準確且快速地追蹤存取紀錄。 4. Risk Management in the Medical Sector.

(5) 風險薈訊 RMBI NEWSLETTER NEWSLETTER RMBI Medical risk Medical malpractice is of primary concern for patients. Any mistakes made by doctors may be fatal for patients. It is impossible to eliminate all accidents. However, with the support of the risk management system and new regulations, the frequency of medical malpractice will be minimized. The clinical decision support is a system included within the CMS that provides a risk management function by giving accurate decision support to doctors. For instance, it reminds doctors about a patient’s medical allergies and medical interaction before any diagnosis is made. To further reduce the medical risk, it alerts doctors to take action when the indicator for a particular patient is too high or low. The system can prevent surgeons from cutting the wrong blood vessel and allow pharmacists to prescribe more suitable distribution of medications.. 醫療風險醫療事故是病人最關心的問題，醫療過程中的任何失誤都足以致命。要完全杜絕意外事故並不可能。然而，在風險管理體系和新法規下，可以將醫療事故的可能性減至最低。臨床決策支援與臨床信息系統相輔相成，它通過向醫生提供準確的診斷去管理風險。例如，在斷症前它會提醒醫生關於藥物過敏和藥品交互作用的問題。為了進一步降低醫療風險，當患者的指標過高或過低，系統便會提示醫生。臨床決策支援可以防止醫療事故，例如切錯血管及處方不當藥物。為了確保系統有效地運行，醫管局會通過電腦系統進行分析，監察公立醫院的表現，每年向市民報告，令市民可得知醫療服務資訊，並提高醫療服務的透明度。. To ensure that the system runs efficiently and effectively, the HKHA will analyze the performance of public hospitals through computer systems and report it to the general public every year. The public can thereby enjoy a higher transparency of information and improvement in medical services. Systemic risk (infection) In the past, it was extremely hard to identify the source of a disease, as patients’ data were collected separately in different hospitals. The infection detection system totally changed with SARS. When every SARS patient and suspected patient entered a public hospital, the details of their condition were entered into a centralized data warehouse. The system then analyzed the pathogenesis time and place data every second, using an electronic map system to analyze and grasp the origin of the outbreak. Using this large-scale system to analyze data and identify the origin and pattern of infection, the HKHA was able to successfully control the outbreak and reduce the number of deaths.. 系統性風險（傳染病）以往，疾病的源頭非常難以確定，因為患者的數據是從不同醫院個別收集到的。傳染病檢測系統在經過非典型肺炎一役過後變得完全不同。當有非典型肺炎病人和疑似病人進入公立醫院，有關他們病情的詳細資料就會被輸入到中央資料庫內。然後，系統會每分每秒分析病人的發病時間和地點，並使用電子地圖系統分析及追踪疫情源頭。有了這個大型系統來分析和追踪疾病擴散的源頭和模式，醫管局就可以成功控制疫情，以減少死亡人數。. Technological risk There is a possibility of system error, human mistake or attack from hacking. Contingency plans and system protection measures are crucial to maintaining the system operation. Thus, there are firewalls and other technological measures to prevent hackers from. 技術風險但是，系統可能會出現失誤、人為錯誤或受黑客攻擊。為保持系統暢順運行，應急計劃和系統保護是非常重要的。因此系統備有防火牆和其他措施以防止黑客攻擊。根據資料顯示，每天試圖攻入系統的黑客和病毒為數. June, 2014 Issue 7. 5. 認識香港公營醫療體系的風險管理.

(6) 風險薈訊 RMBI NEWSLETTER NEWSLETTER RMBI attacking the system. According to our source, more than 1000 people and viruses try to hack into the system every day, but the system has run safely for a decade. Besides, even if someone successfully hacks into the system, the important information is encrypted.. 超過一千，但該系統已經安全運行了十年。再者，假使有人成功入侵系統，重要信息都已經被加密。. Suggestions for future development. 對未來發展的建議. Patient privacy is one of the major concerns for the convenient CMS system. There are ways to prevent leakage by controlling access rights and checking users’ access and usage details. These methods are effective and useful in preventing inappropriate accessing of a patient’s medical history. However, we believe there is room for improvement. From the viewpoint of patients, it can be seen that more could be done for the benefit of patients. For example, patients have a right to know how their information is being used and for what diagnosis. Therefore, we suggest that an online system be set up to enable patients to check why, when and how their medical records are being used. Before the patients’ information can be checked by a practitioner, a brief reason and diagnosis have to be entered. As patients can later check the date, reason and diagnosis, the online system provides more transparency regarding how the patients’ information is used. It also acts as a second line of defense against malpractice related to using the information.. 病人的隱私是臨床信息系統的主要隱憂之一。有很多方法可以防止病人隱私遭到洩漏，例如通過控制存取權限和檢查用戶的詳細記錄。在防止以濫用病人病歷的層面來說，這些措施是行之有效的。不過，我們認為仍有改進的餘地。從病人的角度看，有更多措施可以保障他們的利益，例如病人有權知道他們的資料怎樣應用於診斷程序。因此，我們建議設立一個網上系統，讓病人檢查他們的醫療記錄是基於何種原因、在何時和怎樣適當地使用於診斷過程中。醫護人員在檢查病人的醫療記錄前，必須先輸入簡短的原因和診斷結果。網上系統令病人醫療記錄的運用變得越來越透明，因為病人可檢查其使用日期、原因和診斷結果，更可作為防止以盜用病人醫療記錄的不當行為。. The clinical decision support system reminds doctors of medical allergies, medicine interaction effects and operation details. It is useful in assisting doctors in making decisions because it provides accurate decision support. In the future, besides assisting with making decisions, we think that the system will be developed to include more active reminders for doctors. For example, if a patient with an artificial knee comes to the hospital with influenza, a reminder will pop up if the artificial knee needs to be replaced, even though the patient is not coming for that reason and is not even in the orthopedics department. Understandably, these kinds of developments and new systems require considerable inputs of money, time and technology. For the future development of the healthcare system, we hope to see improvements in risk management, enabling the profession to construct a better future.. June, 2014 Issue 7. 6. 臨床決策支援系統提醒醫生關於藥物過敏、藥物相互作用和操作細節，能提供準確的決策支援，有效協助醫生作出適當的決定。在未來，除了協助醫生作出決定，我們認為該系統可以發展至更主動的層面，例如若果有使用人工膝關節的病人因流感而入院，即使病人不是到骨科去更換人工膝關節，該系統都會自動彈出訊息以提示醫護人員病人的人工膝關節是否需要替換。無疑，這些開發工作或新系統都需要投入大量的金錢、時間和技術。對於醫療保健的未來發展，我們期望在風險管理方面會不斷改進，以建設更美好的未來。 Text 撰文 CHOW Miu Lam 周妙霖 HUI Sin Hang 許善恆 TSANG Wing Wah 曾詠樺. Year 2 student of Risk Management & Business Intelligence Program 風險管理及商業智能學課程二年級學生. Risk Management in the Medical Sector.

(7) 風險薈訊 RMBI NEWSLETTER NEWSLETTER RMBI. Safety and Risk Management in the Railway Industry 鐵路行業的安全及風險管理 As an industry with over 15,000 employees, the railway industry is inevitably at risk for human mistakes, leading to a need for risk management measures to reduce operational errors in order to achieve its customer pledge. Let’s examine this under several issues: benchmarking, drivers’ training and selection, and risk management and risk identification.. 在聘用超過15,000名員工的鐵路行業，人為錯誤是無可避免的。為了履行對顧客的服務承諾，鐵路企業的風險管理人員採取了相關措施，務求減少人為的運作風險。本文將會探討其中三個措施，分別是基準化分析法、駕駛員的挑選及培訓，以及風險識別和管理。. Benchmarking Benchmarking allows us to learn from each other through identification of good practice and gaps. The Community of Metros, CoMET, is a program of international railway benchmarking group based on principles of “control by members”, “long-term approach” and “confidentiality agreement” in order to build measures to establish metro best practice, to provide comparative information both for the metro board and the government, to introduce a system of indicators and measures for management, and to prioritize areas for improvement. Key Performance Indicators (KPI) such as growth and learning, customer base, internal processes, maintenance, safety and security, and financial performance commonly are used for benchmarking.. 何世傑博士 (中), 香港風險管理與安全協會主席 Dr Vincent Ho (middle), The Chairman of the Hong Kong Association of Risk Management and Safety. 基準化分析法﹙Benchmarking﹚ 基準化分析法讓我們能以識別良好習慣及差距的方式彼此學習。國際地鐵聯盟（CoMET）是一個國際鐵路企業之間的基準化分析計劃，並以三大原則為基礎︰會員控制權、長遠方針及保密協議，目的是協助各會員建立鐵路業的最佳實踐方法（Best Practice），提供比較資料給政府及鐵路局，引入系統化的管理措施，及協助會員決定各項改善工作的先後次序。用於分析的關鍵績效指標﹙Key Performance Indicator）涵蓋增長、顧客意見、內部運作、保養、安全及保安程度和財務狀況等方面。. Under a confidentiality agreement, members who are large metro systems from around the world are able to share their experiences and exchange information regularly. Specified topics are set for such benchmarking exercises. Member companies may also exchange employees for cross-sharing of knowledge and information; for example, in 2008, under a six-month exchange program, two employees from the Hong Kong MTR Corporation and two from the London Underground exchanged their posts. This program aims at promoting an exchange of ideas and helping the personal development of the individuals involved.. 在保密協議下，國際間的大型鐵路企業會員能慣常地分享及交流經驗，並會訂定一些範疇以進行基準化分析。會員之間亦會派出員工作知識和資訊交流，例如在2008年，兩名香港鐵路公司的員工與兩名倫敦地鐵的員工參與工作交換計劃。這計劃目的是鼓勵與同業交流經驗及體驗其他鐵路企業的工作環境，以達到推動員工個人發展的目標。. In addition, comparing performance data stimulates thought-provoking questions and more in-depth analysis and research. Risk management requires an abundance of information for assessing and June, 2014 Issue 7. 7. 鐵路行業的安全及風險管理.

(8) 風險薈訊 RMBI NEWSLETTER NEWSLETTER RMBI predicting potential operational risk events and safety issues. CoMET provides an opportunity for railway corporations to share comprehensive information about the issues one corporation has faced without reservations, by taking advantage of their confidentiality agreement. They are potential risk events for other corporations as well, so they have to emphasize and come up with contingency plans before a recurrence of the events. As a result, sharing risk events can act as an alarm to other corporations, which can learn from the experience in order to be better prepared before the risk event happens in their own organization.. 另外，與其他鐵路企業比較表現，能啟發業界思維及進行更深入的分析與研究。風險管理需要充足的資訊來評估及預測潛在的運作風險事件和安全隱憂。CoMET的保密協議提供機會給鐵路企業與其他會員毫無保留地分享他們正面對的風險事件的完整資料，其他會員能藉此得到警剔，知道哪些方面需予以重視，並在事件可能發生前制定應變計劃。因此，鐵路企業能透過其他鐵路系統的經驗分享而得知潛在的風險，並作好準備。除了對外作基準化分析的CoMET，大型鐵路企業亦可以藉此對本身所擁有的多條鐵路或系統進行內部比較和分析，作為企業進行內部小型風險的基準化分析的途徑，從公司內部分享和比較風險安全的措施，並找出需加以改善的地方。例如當管理層變動或管理模式有變，在交接時或會因新系統的缺漏而形成運作風險。基準化分析可以在此時協助建立處理風險的控制措施，並在交接後檢討相關措施。. Apart from external benchmarking, internal benchmarking within several lines owned by a corporation is a way of benchmarking specific minor topics within the company. In the form of questionnaires, such companies can share and compare their practices and look for areas in need of improvement. For example, change management benchmarking is an internal benchmarking system for major changes of system or management in order to share risk control procedures for the operational risk involved in the design of the new system and the period of transition, and to enable revisions to be made after the change.. 但是，要成功進行基準化分析，必須先就當中的分析指標定出清晰的定義。若指標的定義含糊不清，指標就不適合用作比較。舉例說，假如意外受傷率的定義不夠清析，在使用這個指標進行比較時，企業便可能會採用不同的和對自己有利的定義來計算受傷率，使他們的成績被高估。就受傷率作出定義的技巧之一是狹義地將意外受傷率定義為與非鐵路或非移動列車無關，基本上大型的鐵路系統已達到零鐵路相關的意外，但是與非鐵路有關的意外率卻十分高，有需要加以重視，例如來自扶手電梯的意外便不容忽視。除此之外，以相同的情況進行比較也是首要條件。CoMET的會員均為大型的鐵路企業，例如柏林運輸公司與倫敦地鐵。CoMET優勝之處在於運作模式相似的企業能在相同的比較情況和標準下互相收集和交換資訊並以相同的準則互相比較。如標準不一，比較就會因相對質素的差異而失去. However, with a view to achieving successful benchmarking, the indicators for benchmarking should be defined clearly. When the definitions of indicators are ambiguous, comparisons cannot be made. For example, an unclear definition of the injury rate can lead to too optimal data, preventing companies from participating when they adopt a different definition. One of the tricks to defining the injury rate is moving, which is related to the railway, and non-moving, which has no relation to the railway. Thus the moving injury rate the company announces can be zero, which is the optimal, while the non-moving injury rate can be high due to a high risk posed by escalators in metro stations, and this latter rate can be overlooked if the definitions are not clear. In addition to a clear definition, another prerequisite for comparison is an equal basis. The participants of CoMET are also large metros, such as Berliner Verkehrsbetriebe, BVG, and London Underground. CoMET has the advantage of collecting data and information from similar corporations in the railway industry with similar business operations, June, 2014 Issue 7. 8. Safety and Risk Management in the Railway Industry.

(9) 風險薈訊 RMBI NEWSLETTER NEWSLETTER RMBI which provides a similar standard and basis for comparison between them. Without an equal basis, the comparison is meaningless as the relative quality cannot be shown, for example the signal system used in small metros has different strengths and weaknesses to that used in large metros. Therefore, the comparison of indicators is practical when their definitions are clear, such as a clearly-defined fatality rate, and when the situation and forms of business of the companies are similar.. 意義，例如不同的訊號系統各有優劣，無法一概而論。因此，基準化分析要發揮效用，就必需對分析指標作出清晰的定義，例如定義清楚的死亡率，而參與比較的企業亦應該具有相似的運作模式。. A consideration in benchmarking is the cost incurred. The benefits of benchmarking are exchanged for cost spent. Time cost and database management cost are two major and noticeable sources of cost involved in the benchmarking process. Time cost is the time spent on studying, visiting and investigating potential risk events that may or may not occur. Management cost is involved when the corporation maintains a documentation process and database of best practices of risk management. However, the cost of information technology adjusted for quality and inflation has decreased in the past five decades from the private fixed investment data on information processing equipment from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The benefits and costs of benchmarking can be weighed before its adoption.. 進行基準化分析前亦需考慮衍生的額外成本。時間成本和資料庫管理成本是其中兩項主要成本。時間成本是指用於了解和研究可能發生的風險事件的時間。資料庫的管理成本則是在管理和維護基準化分析的資料庫時所涉及的成本，管理過程中會記錄應急措施指標和風險事件的相關資料。但是隨著資訊科技日益發展，根據聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行的私人固定投資數字，處理資訊的硬件成本有所減少，顯示資訊成本在過去五十年持續下降。在採用基準化分析前，可先考慮所牽涉的成本和帶來的潛在利益。. Automatic systems. 自動化系統. Automatic systems are a common precautionary measure in the Hong Kong railway industry in order to minimize errors made by the drivers. Speeding leads to crashes and derailments, which are serious accidents for a large metro system.. 自動化系統在香港的鐵路系統十分普遍，可以將駕駛員的人為錯誤減至最少。超速是導致嚴重的鐵路行車碰撞及出軌意外的主要原因，大型鐵路系統尤其如此。最基本的訊號系統是標牌訊號系統（Line Sign Signal System），這系統常見於輕軌鐵路，只用鐵路旁的訊號牌來向駕駛員傳達訊息（如限速）。. The basic signal system, which is commonly adopted in light rail, is the Line Sign Signal System, which simply consists of signs showing signals near the rail to inform the drivers.. 列車信號車載系統（Cab Signal）是較先進的系統，以車內的地面信號機自動顯示列車前方的地面信號，但不會發出超速警告，所以不能防止運作風險。. A more advanced system is the Cab Signal System, which is rail track information shown inside the cab of the train. However, they are also vulnerable to operational risk due to the lack of warning for speeding.. 列車保護及警告系統（Train Protection Warning System）在容易發生意外的停車地點或彎位之前設置感應器，會於超速時發出警示，但無法控制列車減速，因此也無法防止風險。. The Train Protection Warning System, which is usually adopted with sensors set before the stop June, 2014 Issue 7. 9. 鐵路行業的安全及風險管理.

(10) 風險薈訊 RMBI NEWSLETTER NEWSLETTER RMBI position and on a track with a tight bend, only provides a warning and cannot completely prevent speeding.. 列車自動保護系統﹙Automatic Train Protection System）會持續地監察列車的運行資料，例如實時速度，並自動計算最短的減速距離以在必要時發出警示。如駕駛員不依警示，系統會自動強制減速。這能完全防止或阻止列車超速。. The Automatic Train Protection System, which continuously monitors the train’s profile to calculate the shortest braking distance in order to provide a suitable warning every time and automatically apply the brakes when the driver ignores the warning, completely prevents speeding in a large metro system.. 除了列車自動保護系統外，列車自動控制系統 ﹙Automatic Train Operation System）也能有效減少因人為錯誤而引致的運作風險。這系統是無人駕駛系統，會自動操作加速減速和巡行，因此能完全消除駕駛列車的人為風險因素。. Apart from Automatic Train Protection, the Automatic Train Operation System can also effectively mitigate operational risk from human mistakes. Automatic Train Operation means automatic and “driverless” driving, involving automatic accelerating, braking and cruising so that human factors are removed from the process of driving.. 香港鐵路系統使用列車自動保護系統 ﹙Automatic Train Protection System）及列車自動控制系統﹙Automatic Train Operation System），因此能把人為失誤所引致的運作風險減至最低。. With the combination of Automatic Train Protection and Automatic Train Operation in the Hong Kong railway system, operational risk due to human error is avoided. Driver training and selection Training is an important element provided to drivers due to the availability of drivers to control human error risks. Although Automatic Train Protection and Automatic Train Operation can minimize human mistakes, trains operations are still exposed to operational risk from system failure. Once the automatic system is unavailable, train operations have to fall back on manual-driven modes. As a result, drivers are still responsible for taking over a train in manual mode when there is a system failure. A system failure can result from the automatic system being out of service, such as by the shorting of electrical circuits and the omission of some safety hazards of the system, the inability to detect any visual objects like a passenger falling onto the track, which may cause an accident. In order to ensure drivers’ preparation for emergency take-over and the handling of accidents, refresher training is provided every six months with lessons and simulators for normal driving, reporting the precursors of system errors, acknowledging the change in procedures, crisis management, and risk reporting.. 駕駛員的挑選及培訓如果是由駕駛員而非自動控制系統來控制和駕駛列車，駕駛員須先經受訓以確保安全。雖然列車自動保護系統﹙Automatic Train Protection System）及列車自動控制系統﹙Automatic Train Operation System）能把人為錯誤減至接近零的水平，但同時卻要面對來自另一方面的運作風險，即系統出錯的風險。一旦自動系統失靈，列車系統的運作便需改回人手操作。換句話說，即使採用無人駕駛系統，駕駛員仍有可能需要在系統出錯時以人手控制列車。系統出錯的情況包括因電線短路或停電以致系統故障無法運作，以及一些系統無法偵測到的安全危機，例如月台乘客掉到路軌的物品。因此，為了讓駕駛員能預備緊急控制和懂得如何應變，鐵路企業會每六個月定期提供培訓予駕駛員，包括課堂及模擬駕駛訓練、初期系統出錯警告的匯報、認識系統的更新及更改、危機管理和風險匯報等。. As for the railways that do not have an automatic June, 2014 Issue 7. 10. Safety and Risk Management in the Railway Industry.

(11) 風險薈訊 RMBI NEWSLETTER NEWSLETTER RMBI system, such as the metro in Melbourne, driver selection and an intensive training regime are emphasized in order to control operational risk. Drivers are selected carefully for their safety awareness. When selected, driver-cadets are provided initial training for nine months, which is longer than the training provided by metro systems with Automatic Train Protection. They will then start to drive and acquire experience with a mentor for the following half a year. Like other metro systems, they will also be provided with refresher training every six months. Significantly more cautious risk control measures for human mistakes are adopted by railways without automatic systems, which are more vulnerable to operational risk.. 在一些沒有自動操作的鐵路系統，例如墨爾本的輕軌，駕駛員的甄選和加強培訓就更顯得重要。嚴格挑選駕駛員，尤其著重他們的安全意識，能有效減低風險。在培訓方面，獲選的駕駛員會接受為期九個月的培訓，他們必須通過比自動操作鐵路的駕駛員所接受的更長期和更廣泛的培訓，方能開始駕駛列車，並在首半年跟隨現職的駕駛員前輩汲取經驗。然後，在成為現職駕駛員後，須繼續每六個月接受定期培訓。由於沒有自動操作的鐵路系統面對較高的運作風險，因此必須加倍謹慎和加強風險控制措施才能減少意外。. Risk management and risk identification. 識別和管理風險. Risk management can be separated into risk identification, risk assessment, risk treatment and control, risk communication, and review and monitoring. Risk identification is the critical first step. The goal of risk identification is to identify the risk factors that are a part of the activity being undertaken. It includes documenting and communicating concerns. Basically, it’s about working out what could go wrong.. 風險管理可以分為風險識別、評估、應對、控制、溝通、檢討及監控七個部分。識別風險是風險管理中關鍵的第一步，目的是識別出目前各個項目中有機會出現的風險和潛在風險因素，其中包括紀錄及討論各個需要關注的地方。簡單的說，識別風險就是找出各個項目中的潛在問題。. Risk identification needs to match the type of assessment required to support risk-informed decision making. For an acquisition program, the first step is to identify the program goals and objectives, thus fostering a common understanding across the team of what is needed for program success. This gives a context and bounds the scope by which risks are identified and assessed. Operational risk is one of the risks areas to which the railway industry must pay much attention. Understanding the operational needs helps you to appreciate the gravity of risks and the impact they could have on the end user. Typically, operational users are willing to accept some level of risk if they are able to accomplish their mission, but it is necessary to help users to understand the risks they are accepting and to assess the options, balances, and alternatives available.. 風險識別需要配合不同形式的評估以作為決策的理據。例如在執行一個收購計劃時，首先要識別及分析各個程序的目的和目標，使整個團隊能對計劃有所共識，才能令計劃最終取得成功。這個過程可以提供相關的背景和範圍，以進行風險識別和評估。操作風險是鐵路行業會經常注意的風險之一。清楚了解操作上的需要可以幫助鐵路企業意識到風險的嚴重性，以及對乘客的影響。在通常. For example, cost risks are assessed when it comes to decision making. Back in 1998, only the Tung Chung Line and Airport Express had platform screen doors (PSD) in Hong Kong. Suicides and homicides, in which people jumped or were pushed from the platform, occurred in June, 2014 Issue 7. 11. 鐵路行業的安全及風險管理.

(12) 風險薈訊 RMBI NEWSLETTER NEWSLETTER RMBI the railway stations, causing injuries and casualties.. 情況下，只要能夠完成任務，操作員都願意接受一定程度的風險，但他們必須先了解所承受的風險，並評估不同的選擇及其他可行的方法。. To prevent such accidents, the MTR Corporation began to retrofit screen doors at all the underground stations in the MTR network, becoming the first in the world to retrofit PSDs on a transit system already in operation. The project was completed in 2005. The 8 elevated stations along the urban lines were retrofitted with half-height automatic platform gates in 2011, mainly for standardization and managing customer expectation.. 舉例說，每做一個決定時，都會評估及考慮成本風險。早在一九九八年，香港的鐵路系統只有東涌線及機場快線設有月台幕門。在鐵路上發生的意外，例如自殺及他殺，包括被他人從月台推下路軌，會導致一定程度的傷害甚至傷亡。為了防止同類事故再次發生，當年的地鐵公司開始為地鐵沿線所有地下車站進行翻新工程，當中包括加裝月台幕門，成為世界上第一個同時運作並加裝月台幕門的公共交通運輸系統，這項目已於二零零五年完成，並在二零一一年為高架月台安裝半高的自動月台幕門。然而，基於任何理性的成本效益分析法，單單防止自殺行為並不足以支持月台幕門安裝的工程。對於是否安裝月台幕門是取決於成本及開支。因為安裝月台幕門會產生高昂的安裝及維修費用，每年的開支估計達一億港元，而因鐵路導致的死亡人數約為每年三十人。換句話說，因安裝了月台幕門而拯救到的每條人命所涉及的成本超過三百萬港元，可見拯救生命的成本是如何巨大。但我們需要注意的一點是，即使我們成功阻止某個人試圖在月台自殺，亦不能阻止他在另一個地方自殺。許多人會認為建造月台幕門的費用可以用於其他改善工程。那麼為什麼當年地鐵公司在建造月台幕門前沒有評估成本風險？. Preventing suicide alone seldom justifies the installation of PSD based on any rational cost/riskbenefit analysis. Installing such doors and gates incurs high installation and maintenance costs. They are estimated to cost a hundred million dollars per year, while the fatality rate is about 10 people per year. The decision whether or not to install platform screen doors and gates really depends on the cost and benefits. In other words, saving one life with platform screen doors and gates costs more than 3 million dollars. The cost of saving attempted suicide is huge. But we need to understand that if we stop people from attempting suicide on a train platform, they will try it elsewhere. Many would argue that the installation cost could be spent on attempts to improve other areas. So why did the MTR Corporation build the screen doors and gates without assessing the cost risk? Retrofitting of PSDS can only be economically justified by the reduction in air-conditioning costs with the enclosed platform. It so happened that the benefits of the installation were not limited to the decreases in injury and fatality rates. Besides preventing suicides and homicides, the platform screen doors enable climate control, better ventilation and air conditioning, within the station. The airflow is considerable when trains go in and out of the station. In summer, hot air is brought into the station, while cold air is brought in winter. These screen doors save a lot of electricity; calculations of airflow and electricity saved are not a hard job for mechanical engineers. In addition, the security control is improved as access to the tunnels and tracks is restricted. And the most determining risk factor the MTR Corporation is controlling is the branding.. June, 2014 Issue 7. 安裝月台幕門同時亦可減低在密閉的月台裏的冷氣成本。由此可見，安裝月台幕門的好處不只局限於減低受傷率和死亡率。除了防止自殺和他殺之外，月台幕門能夠控制氣候的影響，使到站內有更好的通風配套和空調設備。當列車進出車站時，氣流是非常大的，夏季炎熱的空氣會被帶入車站，而冬季的冷空氣亦會被帶進站內。月台幕門能夠節省龐大的電費，計算氣流和節省電力對於機械工程師而言絕不是一件難事。此外，建造月台幕門可以限制其他人隨意進入隧道和路軌，因此安全控制亦得到改善。而最決定性的風險因素是，當年的地鐵公司正在建立其品牌聲譽。 Text 撰文 LEE Kwok Ho 李國浩 TAM Kiu Fai 譚翹輝. Year 2 student of Risk Management & Business Intelligence Program 風險管理及商業智能學課程二年級學生. 12. Safety and Risk Management in the Railway Industry.

(13) 風險薈訊 RMBI NEWSLETTER NEWSLETTER RMBI. The Debt Ceiling – Can it “Seal Debt”? 美國的「債務上限」真的能夠有效減債嗎？ On 1st October 2013, the US government started to undergo a strange 16-day partial shut-down. The shut-down occurred because of the negative consequences of the debt ceiling. On the 17th day, President Obama and Congress finally reached an agreement and raised the debt ceiling. Is the debt ceiling really effective in stabilizing the economic status of the US, or it is just another classic political drama?. 2013年10月1日，由於兩黨在債務上限的問題上爭持不下，美國聯邦政府部門開始局部暫停運作。16天後，美國總統奧巴馬和國會最終達成協議上調債務上限。那麼，「債務上限」是否真的能有效穩定美國的經濟，還是只是另一次政治上的鬧劇？. Definition of debt ceiling The United States’ debt ceiling is the maximum amount of money that the US government can borrow. It is a legislative mechanism to limit the amount of national debt that can be issued by the Treasury. It is also known as the “debt limit” or “statutory debt limit”. The debt ceiling was created by Congress in 1917, during World War I. It allowed the Treasury to issue bonds so that the US government could easily finance World War I military expenses. It made federal spending easier since it eliminated the need for Congress to approve every debt issuance one by one.. 債務上限的定義美國債務上限是指美國政府可以借用的最大金額。這個立法機制的目的是限制由財政部發行的國家債務數量，可稱為「債務上限」或「法定債務上限」。債務上限是在第一次世界大戰期間由美國國會設立。美國國會在1917年允許財政部發行債券，使美國政府可以很容易地為第一次世界大戰的軍事開支撥款。這讓聯邦支出容易，因為在發行債券時毋須逐次取得國會的批准。. US government spending outweighs its revenue. This causes deficits. In order to maintain the operation of the government, this gap must be filled by issuing treasury bonds. These deficits increase the need to raise the country’s borrowing power. However, the Treasury cannot issue bonds if the debt ceiling has been reached, unless Congress agrees to increase the limit of the debt ceiling.. 美國政府的支出遠遠超過收入，形成赤字。為了維持政府的運作，這個差距必須通過發行國債來填補。隨著赤字增加，便有需要提高國家的借貸能力。但是，如果已經達到債務上限，除非國會同意提高債務上限，否則財政部便不能發行債券。. If the issues are not addressed with a solution found when the debt ceiling is reached, drastic measures must be taken, including the shutdown of government programs and offices. The US government is in default on its loans, resulting in lowering its credit rating and increasing the cost of its debt. There are negative impacts on financial markets around the world. June, 2014 Issue 7. 當達到債務上限，如沒法找到解決方案，便必須採取一些嚴厲的措施，包括停止政府項目和辦事處的運用。美國政府將拖欠貸款，導致其信用評級下降，繼而增加其債務成本。這對世界各地的金融市場都會帶來負面的影響。 13. 美國的「債務上限」真的能夠有效減債嗎？.

(14) 風險薈訊 RMBI NEWSLETTER NEWSLETTER RMBI The debt ceiling has been raised nearly 80 times since the 1960s and was raised to US$16.7 trillion on May 19, 2013.. 自20世紀60年代以來，債務上限已提高了近80 倍，並於2013年5月19日將其提高到16.7萬億美元。. Debt ceiling crises. 債務上限危機. 1995 debt ceiling crisis The request for an increase in the debt ceiling led to a debate in Congress on reducing the size of the federal government, and Congress did not pass the federal budget. Finally this resulted in shutdowns of the United States federal government in 1995 and 1996 for 27 days in total.. 1995年債務上限危機為提高債務上限，國會展開了對削減聯邦政府規模的辯論，以致聯邦預算無法獲得通過，並最終導致美國聯邦政府在1995年和1996年停止運作達27天。 1996年的聯邦預算案中，對醫療保障、教育、環境，以及公共衛生的經費出現意見分歧。該預算因而沒有獲得通過，造成美國旅遊和航空業數百萬美元的損失。上限最終獲得調整，政府的停工得以解決。. There was a conflict over funding for Medicare, education, the environment, and public health in the 1996 federal budget. Therefore, this budget did not pass and affected the US tourism and airline industries to the tune of millions of dollars in losses. The ceiling was eventually increased and the government shutdown resolved. 2011 debt ceiling crisis This was part of the political debate between the two main parties in the United States Congress about income taxes, federal government spending and the debt ceiling.. 2011債務上限危機這是兩黨在美國國會關於所得稅、聯邦政府支出和債務上限的政治辯論的一部分。如果不增加債務上限，美國將進入主權債務違約。這意味著美國未能按時支付到期的利息和國債本金。這最終會造成國際金融市場危機。. Without an increase in the debt ceiling, the US would have entered sovereign default, which means a failure to pay the interest and principal of US treasury securities on time. Ultimately, this would create an international crisis in the financial markets.. 為了解決危機，美國總統奧巴馬簽署2011年預算控制法案，其中一項條款是將債務上限上調四千億美元。. To resolve the crisis, the US president Barack Obama signed the Budget Control Act of 2011. One of its provisions was the raising of the debt ceiling by $400 billion.. 因為兩黨在達成協議期間出現阻延，信用評級機構標準普爾將美國長期信用評級從AAA下調至AA + 。這是美國有史以來的第一次。而其他的評級機構惠譽和穆迪，則維持美國的AAA信用評級。然而，兩家機構宣布對美國債務給予負面展望，這長遠而言很可能導致利息成本增加。. Because of the delay in reaching an agreement between the two parties, Standard & Poor, which is a credit rating agency, downgraded the United States’ long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+. This was the first time that this had happened in US history. The other rating agency, Fitch and Moody’s, retained the US’s credit rating at AAA. However, both agencies announced a negative outlook for US June, 2014 Issue 7. 14. The Debt Ceiling – Can it “Seal Debt”?.

(15) 風險薈訊 RMBI NEWSLETTER NEWSLETTER RMBI debt, which is likely to result in higher interest costs in the long term.. 2013 debt ceiling crisis In early 2013, the debt ceiling was set at US$16.394 trillion, the amount that was set in 2011. Due to the political debate between the two parties in the United States Congress, US President Obama signed the “No Budget, No Pay Act of 2013” in February 2013. The raising of the debt ceiling was suspended until May 2013 in order for the two parties to reach a consensus on passing the budget plan.. 2013債務上限危機在2013年初，債務上限被定為16.394萬億美元，這是在2011年設定的水平。由於美國國會兩黨之間的政治辯論期間，美國總統奧巴馬在 2013年2月簽署了「 2013年無預算無薪資法案」，債務上限上調被暫停，直到2013年5月兩黨達成共識通過預算計劃為止。. On 19 May, the debt ceiling was raised to 16.699 trillion.. 債務上限的爭論持續到2013年10月，美國政府在10月1日起局部停止運作。為解決政府停止運作的問題，通過了「持續撥款法案2014」，債務上限的提高再次暫停，直到2014年2月為止，使政府的停止運作和2013年債務上限危機得以告終。. 5月19日，債務上限提高到16.699萬億美元。. The debate on the debt ceiling continued until October 2013. The US government went to a partial shutdown on 1 October. To resolve the shutdown, the “Continuing Appropriations Act 2014” was passed. The raising of the debt ceiling was again suspended until February 2014. This ended both the government shutdown and the 2013 debt ceiling crisis.. 債務上限的辯論本來，債務上限是用作警示，以減少由於國債的發行而形成的美國信用風險。如果債務達到上限，美國政府便有可能違約甚至出現經濟衰退。最嚴重的例子是2013年的危機，這導致了政府的暫時和局部的停止運作。因此，理想情況下，美國政府應該選擇其他的方式來解決債務危機，如增加稅收和減少政府開支等。然而，如今債務上限已成為政黨討價還價的武器，多於用來避免經濟崩潰的工具。美國總統可能依然會讓國家債務將達到上限，以迫使國會投票支持增加債務上限。因此，債務上限開始失去其原有的效用。. Debate on the debt ceiling Originally, the debt ceiling was used as a warning to reduce the US credit risk because of the issue of treasury bonds. If the debt reached the ceiling, the US government would be in default of its loans and there could even be an economic recession. The most severe example is the crisis in 2013, which led to a temporary and partial shut-down of the government. As a result, ideally, the US government should choose other ways to solve the debt crisis, such as increasing tax, reducing government spending, and so on. However, nowadays, the debt ceiling is used as a political bargaining tool rather than to avoid economic breakdown. The President might still allow the national debt to reach the debt ceiling in order to force Congress to vote for the debt ceiling increment. As a result, the debt ceiling starts to lose its original usefulness.. 或許，奧巴馬總統敦促提高債務上限的唯一原因是要支付國會每年批准的支出。如果美國政府要穩定政府債務，每年的預算過程是減少債務的最有效方法之一。因此，債務上限很多時會給人一種錯誤的觀念，以為債務上限是用來限制總統舉債的「法例」。但現實中，債務上限只是給美國政府發出警號。此外，債務上限使選民產生錯覺，以為平衡預算是很容易的事。因此，政治家都喜歡以債務上限這個議題作為號召，因為選民討厭政府借錢或增加稅收（一如減少福利）。. Probably, the only reason that President Obama is June, 2014 Issue 7. 15. 美國的「債務上限」真的能夠有效減債嗎？.

(16) 風險薈訊 RMBI NEWSLETTER NEWSLETTER RMBI urging Congress to raise the debt ceiling is to pay for the spending that Congress authorizes each year. If the US government wants to stabilize the government debt, the annual budgeting process is one of the most effective methods of keeping down the debt amount. So the debt ceiling always gives ordinary people the mis-conception that it is a “law” to restrict the President in borrowing money. In reality, however, the debt ceiling is just a kind of warning to the US government. Also, it gives voters the illusion that balancing the budget is easy. So, politicians love the debt ceiling because voters hate the government borrowing money or increasing taxes (or the equivalent, reducing welfare).. 另一場辯論則為1974年預算案決議的冗餘效應。在1974年以後，美國國會開始通過全面預算決議，指定美國政府可以花費的具體金額。因此，為了更好地評估事件風險，一些民主黨眾議院議員曾經建議取消債務上限。結論綜合以上所述，可見債務上限的效果不彰，但影響卻甚大。效果不彰是因為國會只需通過投票便可提高債務上限，而影響甚大是因為會產生不良的後果，例如利率上升、政府的局部關閉、違約以及金融風暴等，這些不良後果遠遠超出其設立的原意。儘管存在矛盾，但由於債務上限是一種「預先承諾措施」，可以促使總統更審慎地管理債務，因此，債務上限應予保留，以作為計量美國信貸風險的工具。. Another debate is the redundant effect of the budget resolutions in 1974. After 1974, Congress began to pass the comprehensive budget resolution, which specifies the exact amount of money the US government can spend. As a result, in order to better assess the event risk, several Democratic House members once proposed to abolish the debt ceiling.. Advisors 顧問 Yue Kuen KWOK 郭宇權 Program Director 課程總監. Conclusion To sum up, the debt ceiling is both too weak and too strong. It is too weak because the Congress can simply raise it by voting. But it is too strong because its negative consequences, such as higher interest rates, partial shut-down of the government, default, and financial turmoil, are unreasonably out of proportion to the behavior that it is trying to regulate. Despite the contradiction, as the debt ceiling is a kind of “pre-commitment device” that provides incentives for the President to manage the debt more carefully, it should be retained as an excellent measuring tool of credit risk in the US.. Adela S M LAU 劉秀梅 UG Coordinator 課程統籌主任. Risk Management and Business Intelligence Program The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology 香港科技大學風險管理及商業智能學課程 Phone: 2358 6955 Fax: 2335 9317 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.rmbi.ust.hk All contents and information in this newsletter are proprietary to Risk Management and Business Intelligence Program, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and are subjected to copyright protection. Republication, redistribution or unauthorized use of any content or information contained in this newsletter is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of the RMBI Program, HKUST.. Text 撰文 CHAN Chun Ting 陳俊廷 YING Tik Hang Alex 邢迪衡. Year 2 student of Risk Management & Business Intelligence Program 風險管理及商業智能學課程二年級學生. June, 2014 Issue 7. 本刊所載的內容及資料，均屬香港科技大學風險管理及商業智能學課程所有，且受版權保護。任何人士如未獲本課程事先給予書面許可，一律禁止轉載、發放或擅用本刊的任何內容或資料。. 16. The Debt Ceiling – Can it “Seal Debt”?.

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