政策方案預測之研究

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(20) ... lti'~:W~~!i:.m~. .. ~~iiiI§S;f;l'H]J~.lI!JR .. ~~W:1:!iS. ;.. ...,;~~~.~!ii>m;ml\lrn.~:l:Kit! .. ~~.Ii 0 fE[1Jt~~:Ii!st:~.~ .. ~te$!~ ftrliU~K ~~... IE ~:l:KiII:W:!1& 0. !ii>m~::gI&I!i!Hi!. ... lti'll;::W~~!i:~+Hl!iII\~st: 1iX~~~~2lit.c-.1Ii. ~~~.~~~m~~~~.~!ii>ml. ~1.~*:w~m"~~~~+H.~.~~~~~~o N~~~~~$:~Mn~~~~~~$!~~:W~"~~~l~~~. .. .. e~~~~${~~:W~~-R~lti'~o. ·${iH 0 ~~~~$!~$t• • ~ .. fE[~~I!;~iit--.~$:~~n~~~~~ ~.qtIfi.~lti'~ .. ~i:l? 1~~~~~m!!rlR 1~~~~~.IE~. 0 ~IE .. ~I!;!lI;;H~ .. ~~~iIJ!!l*I!e'j\~!i: I ... lti'll;::W~~!i:~m.qtI t.c-1§t£!;lS .. ffit~I&~_.:WJ.E-~~lti'st:Ml~~.~f!\1I(~I:!iS~IIi:l?"~. IW. ~"~~!i:~~~~~. $!111'~ I'. lti'~~~.1' ~~Iii~~:W " ~iill;:-R ..~.iit.~~ .. tmlti'~~.!IJl.Q~$:~tIe... ~~~~~$:e:~iill;:~. ~$:~~~~$!~$:~.~~~~~.~I~H~"~~~~. !IJl.Q~iME~ft~ ~~~~I!e~. 0. ~,~ll;:~.HIIiIl1rol:!iS$.~~$:~. lti'~:Wo~IE"~$:I!e~I:!iS~~~.~~~"~~~~.~R.~~. .... ~.:!~~~~$:~!ii>~ .. ~~~~~ .. a~~~mN~ .. ~~.~=.iit~JRiII ... ~!ii>~ .. ~.2lil:!ijl~'j\H~ .. ~$~~.~~. !ii>~ $:1!e~1:!iS.~~.H~ ~~~~ ... ~~jJtm;lf! • .qtI!t!st:~.I.5ii!;~t@l~~!i:. .. IE~.~. ~.~~~~.~orlR~"~~~~.~~~~~-R~~~~~.ti. -R 0 :$~~i!0. 0. *1'«"ii;f;l*1\lH-~~~!i: ~ :!1iJl~~~~*iIi .. t(::~~~~ e tS!UIi~.IEI~n .. ~iJl~!i:~$!ftrl$!ftrl.~ .. ~~lti'~$!Jt:i~:W~ < :f~h~$:~!ii>~.j~~b~"~~I!e'j\ae...'tDll!lti'~~ r ~.~ml!eir5m J ( .. ~.~ 0. *,.~ml!e'j\m~$!~$.qtI~st:*-P<I:!iS;f;l~~~;S!!II.~. multimethod foreCasting) .. ~ffitmtm~~.qtI~~~t@l~~!i:. ;I!\!I::If1~'j\. 0. j1)!Ulm" fiiHI§m .~.l!eli$~ • .. ~~m. I'. Ml~". !ii>~~~IHti'iUI!~~~iJl$!.~~~:W~.~~.-R~~$:~Mn=l:'4S ~. Ml~m".liim". +H.~. ·~~.I!e~iii. "~.~$:~rK:ffl!i!l(~~ "~$:~Mn=~ 0. Ht~m;. .. ~~~~-P< (Alain C.. Enthoven) 1:!iS~:&l". r -K~:&liii. .. tS~2li.el!e~~. ~~ll;:~" .~lEllnn .. ~$:~iMEl!e~i$!~R~ .. IEI!e~N~~~$ .. ~~~~I!e~~$~~~~:w~* .. ~~~~~~~_~$::!I&N. 0. ~~o~l!iII\l!e~~.~~$::!.N~~~I:!iSW~ ~l!iII\:W. J (*ISI I ). r ~$:~!ii>.4rij~;f;l J .... r ~~iI~iH<. 0. .:ti~$t:&l.~**1;b (It tsbetter to be roughly right than exactly 0. <. lSI fj:W 1-151 0. 0. 1~) .. ~ I K <. 0. " ~$1*.q... <4:l:K~$: ( 411#~E!fi.~~<4~ ~~~+. 1 I" #*~. 111 •• Grover Starllng.. 'The Polltics and Economics of Public. Pollcy: An Introductory Analysts with Cases (Homewood. Ill.: 'The Dorsey Press, 1979), p. 80.. lSI" WUll/lm N. Dunn, Public Pollcy Analysts: An Introduction. (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1981). p.• 141.. .• WUlIam G. Sulllvan and W •W, Claycombe, Foundamentals of. Forecasting (Reston, Virginia: Reston PubltshIng Company, Inc,. 1977), p. 1.. 1980), pp. 6-10.. Granger, Forecasting in Business and Economics .• Dunn, op. ,cit., p. 141.. (New York: AcademiC Press, Inc". K" C.W.J. ~. ~. ~~_a~.J(~#~~~~~~"~~~+l~) ~~. 1 "IH.~!!!K~ .... W. wrong). ~ *. * *. *. * *. ('f') ('f').

(21) ;1;12. ;1;12 ;1;12. < .. David C. Mlller. "Methods for Estimating Societal Futures, " In Methooology of Social Impact Assessment. ed. Kurt Flnsterbusch and C.P. Wolf (stroudsburg, Fa.: J:.)(mden,. ;1;12. I ~ .. 10··. II I". ' I;:j lJ I 0. ". E.S. Quade, Analysis forPubUc Decisions (The Rand Cor-. poratlon, 1982). p. 281 ... Sulllvan and Claycombe, op. cit., pp. 9-11.. (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1976), p. 19.. William Copulsky, P:ractlcal Sales Forecasting (New York:. American Management Association, Inc., 1970), pp. 18-20.. ~-P<':. 0. 0. .. ~r~.~&:$"H:!:::M'~~~&:.~~-P<. (Jong S. Jun) . . . r<4:;j(~.&:<4:;j(t~~~M:**. J ( t~~ill'nib"• •ffi '" lll:{BI-\-J+~) .. lID( 1 1 J. lIiIal Jill .. Quade, op. cit., p. 279. lIiIal 11Sl .. ~ .... r $\I4a$iiii&:l1$(ft-Wint. J ...~ r ~~nt.:!:::.. ;1;121. ;1;1211 J .. C.W. GrossandR.T. Peterson, Business Forecasting. Hutchinson and Ross, 1977). pp. 2 0 2 - 1 0 . ; 1 ; 1 2 1. Alllson, Essence of DecisIon: Explaining the. ~··Dunn,op. cit., p.145.. I 0 .. Graham'T.. ~~M:~i'J. 0. Cuban Missile Crisis (Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1971).. .. I .. ~~!fi$iiElmf!(iB.+<~!i1f€fi1!.~&:ii;j• •~~~iiI (WUfredo Pareto, 1848-1923) ~"'3:l. William D. Coplin, Introduction to the Analysis of. IWIII;:j" _~ ~~~J. .. lID( I III. and Applications (John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1978),p. 655.. S. Makrldakis and S. C. Wheelwright, Forecasting: Methods. (~~~~$"'.ffi ';'lll:{~ K +-\-J~). (New York: Learning Resources in International studies,. 111 ... 0. 0. .. ffit~l$:U~Ii{[i='!!t~~~~~{[~.. !. Dunn, op. Cit., p. 172.. (delay rule). 0. lIiIal 1< .. ~~~III~~~~~ .. ~_.mj.a .. i='~Il!I!i~~~nt. tn... ~*~r< ~H-1-HllIII-* .. ~iiti. ( 4Il*i!11Illl:{tn~ .. IJij IIK+ISl~) "lID(ll11111 lIiIal I~" ;Ii~1l! Dunn, op. cit., pp. 165-168. IWll10 .. Ibid., p. 168. lIiIal1! I .. ~~~. (Incremental delay) I ~~_ r ~.$iiEl J. ~o. lIiIal J4J ... ~llIII-*" $nt. (41l.;Sili\tnfl! .. lll:{BlK+<~) "1ID(111. 1K". .: J. III·· ~ E .M. Kassalow, "Some Labor Futures in the United. 1975), p. 21.. Public PollcyIssues From a Problem-Solving Perspective. lIiIa ! I 1.. ~. 1. states, " Congressional Research Service, Congressional Clearing House on the Future, Library of Congress (January. Encel, P. K. Marstrand, and W. Page, The Art of. 31, 1978).. lIiIa I ISl .. S.. Managerial EconomicS. Anticipation (London, England: Martin Robertson & Com pany, ltd., 1975), p. 14.. lIiIa I I;:j •• Dunn, ope cit., pp. 147-150. lIiIa 1K" I bid., p. 150. lIiIa I -\-J .. J. L. Pappas and E. F. Brigham,. (The Dryden Press, 1979), p. 602.. lIiIa 1 < .. ;\it-H!Im!-* .. imM'. ( 4Il*i! "lH!E;l$ttnrna .. nlil!i-\-J+~) .. lID( I. p. 184.. IW11I1I1 .. Ibid., p.177.. IWIlIISl" Ibid.,. 'It. t"l.

(22) ;!;!;I I K" Ibid., p. 150. I .-tJ.. J. L. Pappas and E. F. Brigham, Managerial Economics (The Dryden Press, 1979), p. 602. .i. ;!;!;I 1 <.. iIit-H __ "lnlitlll- ( 4[l~·· j!IIi(llIIt.11li .. nSlII-tJf-.!!l-) .. )ml; I. ;!;!;Ill11ll·· Ibid., P. 177. ;!;!;I1111S1·· Ibid., p. 184. ;!;!;Ill] f.F:I.•• John T. Roscoe. Fundamental Resea:rcIU~tatJstlcl!J for the . . Behavioral Sciences (New York: Holt, .Rlnehart and Wlnstoa,. Dunn, .op. cit•• pp. 196-202; Sulllv&nandCIaycombe,. Inc., 1969), p. 141.. ;!;!;IllIK·· • • op. Cit., pp. 140-141.; T.H. Allen, NeW Methods In Social Science Researeh (New York: Pl.1leger Publishers, 1978)~ Chapter 8.. ;!;!;I111-tJ .. ttii~ Dunn, lp. cit., pp. 198-202. ;!;!;II 11 <.. ~etHll~~IHlll$!-m~!li?~:lmI~~3:111:t:i~lIi.$flg)(• • :m~.~-H .. ~-m~~.~~@~.~.~~a~~.~ .. ~i I~~.1IiW~.og:• •~H:!!:: .. 4i~tBll='~J!lJlb:m:t:" ~.c. ;!;!;I\1I~" Dunn, op. cit., pp. 205-206.. ;!;!;IlSI 0 " Ibld•• pp. 207-208. ;!;!;IISI ] .. AJaIn C. Enthoven, "TenPl.1lctIOll Principles for Policy and Program Analysis, " In Benefit-Cost and Polley Analy 1975)~. p. 459.. Sis: 1974, ed, RlchardZeckhauser (ChIOlgo: Aldme:Publl shingCompany,. p. 172 •. 0. r )"W.~~ J. .. ffit~~.ii!.rn::I='f:e!~~~:m~.rn::r!5.. mIIIO" Ibid., p. 168. ;!;!;Ill] I •• liE~)"w. (Incremental delay) 1~.($~ (delay rule). ;!;!;Il111 1·· Dunn, op. cit.,. 11'1. M. I.

(23)