分離運動與私外交：印度與菲律賓衝突、調停與和平過程之比較 - 政大學術集成

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(1)分離運動與私外交：印度與菲律賓衝突、調停與和平過程之比較 Separatist Movements and Private Diplomacy: Comparing Conflicts and Mediators Peace Processes in India and the Philippines. 治研究生: 政潘孟吉. 學. 指導教授: 吳得源. sit. io. 國立政治大學. er. Nat. y. Advisor: Dr. Wu Der-yuan. ‧. ‧ 國. 大立 Student: Manoj Kumar Panigrahi. n. al 亞太研究英語博士學位學程 iv n U i e h n gc 博士論文. Ch. A dissertation submitted as a partial requirement to International Doctoral Program in Asia-Pacific Studies 中華民國 110 年 1 月 January 2021. DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(2) 國立政治大學亞太研究英語博士學位學程 International Doctoral Program in Asia-Pacific Studies College of Social Sciences National Chengchi University. 博士論文. 治政Dissertation Doctoral 大立. ‧ 國. 學. ‧. 分離運動與私外交：印度與菲律賓衝突、調停與和平過程之比較 y. Nat. n. er. io. sit. Separatist Movements and Private Diplomacy: Comparing Conflicts and Mediators Peace Processes in al iv n India and C h the Philippines U engchi. Student: Manoj Kumar Panigrahi (潘孟吉) Advisor: Dr. Wu Der-yuan (吳得源). 中華民國 110 年 1 月 January 2021. DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(3) Acknowledgments I want to express my thanks to several individuals and institutions who have been very helpful to me during different phases of my Ph.D. journey. Firstly, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Professor Wu Der-Yuan for his memorable role as a supervisor. The thesis would not have reached its completion without his sophisticated intellectual advice, which gave me the direction to finish my Ph.D. research by sharpening my critical thinking and analytical skills and creating a scholarly thesis. Additionally, the classes offered by him were beneficial; the class debates helped me understand the critical conceptual ideas during the discussions period. I am also indebted to my thesis committee chair Professor Edwin Yang, for his constant encouragement throughout my research. I would also like to put. 政治大 Professor Chen Ping-Kuei, and Professor 立 Fang Tien-Sze, whose comments were critical in giving forward my sincere thanks to the other thesis committee members, Professor Lu Yeh-Chung,. ‧ 國. 學. a final shape to the thesis.. I would also like to thank Professor Samrat Sinha, whose enthusiasm for "conflict studies" had a. ‧. lasting effect on me. His support throughout my masters and Ph.D. and most notably in conducting. y. Nat. fieldwork in India, is invaluable. Additionally, I would like to thank Professor Rajdeep Pakanati's. sit. insights and encouragement since my master's in India. Also, Mr. Lalit Kumar, Miss Swarnima. er. io. Singh, Miss Zoe Tsou, and Miss Ping Huang, with whom I got an opportunity to meet and work. n. together on several occasions. Mya lmasters' cohort, Mr. Kamal i v Madishetty, and Mr. Bhargav. n. C. h my Reddy, also gave their critical comments in for Ph.D. e napplication gchi U. I also like to thank Mr. Joel Alvarez and his family, who hosted and helped me immensely by building key contacts with my interviewees during my time in the Philippines. My special thanks to all my interviewees; without them, my understanding of conflicts and peace processes from the ground would not have been possible. I am equally thankful to the Ministry of Education of Taiwan for their generous support by selecting me as one of the scholarship recipients, without which I would not have started my Ph.D. During my time in Taiwan, I came across several individuals who made my journey smooth during my ups and lows. I have been fortunate to know Miss Grace Lin and her family who always gave their constant support; My classmate and good friend Mark Schriver for his generous support from i DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(4) the beginning of the program and for providing me much needed technical support for writing my thesis. Rob, Patrick, Aaron, Chi, James, Sylvia, Yuherina, Michael, and Huai for engaging in several discussions during and after class hours. Also, Pintu Kumar, Malaya, Samaditya, and his family, Solid Hsieh, Chen Zhao Feng, Fred Cheng, Liao Yao-Hui and, Chen Hsiao-Ling help guided me through my time in Taiwan and helped notably. My special thanks to all the schools, the teachers, and students around Taiwan invited me to give speeches and share the Indian culture. The visits helped me speak about India, the questions posed by them helped me learn a lot about my country. Finally, I would like to thank you to my family, without whose support I would not have been able to make it this far, and my other friends whose name has not been mentioned here.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. ii DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(5) 摘要武裝分裂主義運動的研究（詳見文獻綜述）是一個複雜的過程。衝突涉及各個方面，例如衝突的起源、軌跡、升級、僵持期、談判、爭端解決與衝突後建設和平。關於分離主義運動的研究主要集中在戰鬥和衝突後建設和平戰略上，學者主要分析危機的影響及其對平民和武裝部隊的挑戰。本研究以印度阿薩姆聯合解放陣線（ULFA）與菲律賓莫洛民族解放陣線（MNLF）為例，旨在研究調停者（第三方談判者）在種族衝突中干預的作用，並給予調停者在維持和平中所付出的努力，給予適當的評價。在以前的研究中，缺乏關於預防衝突以及一旦簽署和平協議後應關注事項的研究，也鮮少對印度及菲律賓的衝突及和平進程進行研究，這使本論文中研究的案例，具獨特性。. 治政大本論文中運用了跨個案比較來解析，並著重於私人外交及在種族衝突中的和平營造，立. 再藉由田野採訪調查、檔案研究、引用過往的學術著作等，得到了以下的結論。首先，. ‧ 國. 學. 本研究認為，眾多第三方調停者之間的協調，對於和平維護以及簽屬和平協議後的監督的. ‧. 必要性。此外，調停者的地位與權力在確定和平協議的走向最具影響力。本論文也說明. sit. y. Nat. ，調停者的人際關係以及地理位置，影響了他們扮演調停者的動機。. a. er. io. 在某些案例中，具有相同文化根源且在地理位置上接近衝突的調停者，會主動介入調. n. 停，並將協助調停事務視為其道德責任。最後，調停者介入時機至為重要。調停者可以 iv l. n U i e h n 及早意識到引發衝突的徵兆，並在衝突開始之前，向政府提出建言，以確保和平。 gc. Ch. 關鍵字：分離主義運動、民族衝突、調停者、協調、地位與權力、地理位置、介入時機. iii DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(6) Abstract The study of armed separatist movements (see in the literature review) is a complex process. A conflict involves various aspects, such as its origin, trajectory, escalation, the period of stalemate, negotiation, dispute settlement, and post-conflict peacebuilding. Studies on separatist movements have mostly focused on the strategies of fighting and post-conflict peacebuilding. Researchers have mainly analyzed the crisis's impact and its challenges to the civilians and armed forces. By taking the case of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), this research aims to examine the role of mediator (3rd party negotiators) interventions in ethnic conflicts and give the mediators the proper credit for their efforts to attain. 政治大. peace. In the previous studies, there has been a lack of research on conflict prevention and what. 立. aspects to focus on once a peace agreement has been signed.. ‧ 國. 學. There has been less research on the formation of factionalism among the separatist groups as well. To address the puzzle mentioned before, this dissertation adopts a cross-case comparison to answer. ‧. the puzzle and focusing on private diplomacy and peacemaking in ethnic conflicts. By conducting. y. Nat. in-field interviews, archival research, and using the previous scholarly works, the dissertation came. io. sit. out with the following conclusion. First, the research argues that coordination among the multiple. er. third-party mediators is necessary to maintain peace on the ground and watchdog for the post-. n. a l it is argued that the mediator's peace agreement deals. Furthermore, i v position and power are the n. C. e n direction. most influential in determining the peacehdeal's This thesis suggests that a mediator's gchi U connection and geographical location influence their motives for acting as a mediator. In some cases, a mediator who shares the same cultural roots and geographically close to the conflict comes forward to mediate, taking it as their moral responsibility. Also, the timing of the intervention by the mediators is essential. A mediator can identify the early signs of the conflict and bring those concerns to the government.. Keywords: Separatist movements, Ethnic conflicts, Mediators, Coordination, Positon and Power, Geographical location, Timing of the intervention, Factionalism. iv DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(7) Table of Contents Acknowledgement Abstract Table of Contents Acronyms Table and Figure CHAPTER 1. Introduction 1.1 Mediators in Peace Process 1.2 Cases Chosen 1.3 Research Question 1.4 Main Arguments 1.5 Research Methodology and Data Source 1.6 Contribution and Significance of the Study 1.7 Limitations 1.8 Definitions of Key Terms 1.9 Outline of Chapters CHAPTER 2. Literature Review and Conceptual Framework. 政治大. Empirical Cases Previous Literature Power Secessionist Movements Factionalism/Fragmentation. 22 25 25 27 31. 36. n. er. io. he. ngch 2.2.8 Conflict Prevention 2.3 Synthesized Conceptual Framework. y. Nat. 2.2.4 Peace Mechanisms between Nation vs. Nation and Nation vs. Ethnic/Civil Conflict Groups 2.2.5 Why are conflicting parties willing to negotiate? 2.2.6 Mediators a 2.2.7 Mediation: Concepts land CDefinitions. 33. sit. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. 2.1 2.2 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2.3. 立. i iii-iv v-vi vii ix 1-21 1 2 7 8 10 16 17 19 21 22-58. i U. v ni. 37 45 53 55. CHAPTER 3. Assam, India- United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) 3.1 Geography and Current Status (until May 31, 2019) 3.2 Pre-Colonial and Colonial History- How did they deal with tribes? 3.3 Post-Independence: -Revival of the conflict (1947-1985). 59-85 61 64 67. 3.4 ULFA's Birth 3.5 Links with Neighboring Countries 3.6 How does it link to other conflicts in the Region? CHAPTER 4. Peace Process: Government of India and ULFA. 74 77 81 85-106. 4.1 Reason for Peace Talks. 86. 4.2 Peace Talks. 91. v DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(8) 4.2.1 1991 Initiative. 91. 4.2.2 Formation of PCG (2005). 93. 4.2.3 28th Battalion (2008). 98. 4.2.4 Sanmilita Jatiya Abhibartan (2010). 100. 4.2.5 Post-SoO Agreement (2011). 104. CHAPTER 5. The Philippines- Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). 107-131. 5.1 Geography and Current Status (until May 31, 2019). 107. 5.2 Pre-Colonial and Colonial History---How the Moros were engaged?. 111. 5.3 Post-Independence: -Revival of the Conflict (1947-1985). 117. 5.4 MNLF's Birth. 122. 治政大 5.6 How does it link to other conflicts in the Region? 立 CHAPTER 6. Peace Process: The Government of the Philippines and MNLF 5.5 Links with Neighboring Countries. ‧ 國. 學. 6.1 Reason for Peace Talks. 125 128 132-158 132. 6.2 Peace Talks. 136 137. y. 146. sit. Nat. 6.2.2 AQUINO-the MNLF Peace Process. ‧. 6.2.1 The MARCOS-MNLF Peace Process. 150. io. er. 6.2.3 RAMOS-MNLF Peace Process 6.2.4 Post Peace Agreement (1996). al. n. v GOI-ULFA and ithe CHAPTER 7. Research Findings and between n C Comparison hengchi U the GPH-MNLF Peace Process. 155 159-184. 7.1 Government of India-ULFA Peace Process. 160. 7.2 Government of the Philippines and MNLF Peace Process. 169. 7.3 Key Findings for a Successful Mediation. 180. 7.4 Comparison and Findings from the Two Cases. 181. CHAPTER 8. Lessons learned, Policy Recommendations and Conclusion. 185-189. Bibliography. 190-207. Appendix. 208-255. vi DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(9) ACRONYMS Amnesty International Armed Forces of the Philippines Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao Abu Sayyaf Group Association of Southeast Asian Nations Association of Assam Students Union Bangsamoro Autonomous Regional of Muslim Mindanao Bharatiya Janata Party Bangsamoro Basic Law Bangsa Moro Army Bangsamoro Organic Law Bangsamoro Islamic Federation Front Bodoland Territorial Council Bodoland Territorial Area Development Bodoland Liberation Tiger Front Central Command Headquarters Central Headquarters Chief Minister Constitution of India Civil Society Organizations Case Study Methods Communist Party of Philippines Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—People's Army Gerakan Aceh Merdeka Government of Assam a l of India Government iv n C Government of the h ePhilippines gchi U Human Developmentn Index International Court of Justice International Committee of the Red Cross Islamic Conference of Foreign Ministers Internal Displaced People Indian Mujahedeen Indian National Congress International Non-Governmental Organizations International Organization Inter-Services Intelligence Islamic State of Iraq and Syria Mujahedeen Commando Freedom Fighters Mobile Headquarters Moro National Liberation Front Moro Islamic Liberation Front. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. AI AFP AFSPA ARMM ASG ASEAN AASU BARMM BJP BBL BMA BOL BIFF BTC BTAD BLTF CCHQ CHQ CM CoI CSOs CSM CPP FARC GAM GOA GOI GPH HDI ICJ ICRC ICFM IDP IM INC INGOs IO ISI ISIS MCFF MHQ MNLF MILF. vii DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(10) Muslim (Mindanao) Islamic Movement Non-Aligned Movement National Democratic Front of Bodoland Northeastern Region National Institute of Transforming India Ayog New People's Army National Register of Citizens National Socialist Council of Nagaland National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang Non-Governmental Organizations One Belt One Road Organization of Islamic Council Police Constulabury People's Consultative Group Palestine Liberations Organization Prime Minister Philippines National Army International Peace Research Institute Qualitative Research Method Quantitative Research Method Research Question Southeast Asia Sanmilita Jatiya Abhibartan Suspension of Operations Special Zone for Peace and Development Student Union Scheduled Tribes Transnational Advocacy Networks a iv l Uppsala Conflict Data Program n C Union of IslamichForces Organizations i U e n gand h c United Nations Peace Keeping Force United Nation Security Council United Liberation Front of Assom United Liberation Front of Assom- Independent / Anti-Talk Faction Surrendered-United Liberation Front of Assom / Pro-Talk Faction. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. MIM NAM NDFB NER NITI Ayog NPA NRC NSCN NSCN-K NGO OBOR OIC PC PCG PLO PM PNA PRIO QRM QuRM R.Q SEA SJA SoO SPCPD SU ST TAN UCDP UIFO UNPKF UNSC ULFA ULFA-I/ATF S-ULFA/ULFAPTF UN USA WoT. United Nations United States of America War on Terror. viii DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(11) Table and Figure TABLES:. 1.1 2.1 2.2 3.1. Success Rate of Secessionist Movements, 1816-2011-----------------------------Armed Conflicts and Peace Agreements, 1989-2004------------------------------The Past and Future in Mediation----------------------------------------------------Hindi, Bengali, and Assamese speaking population, 1951-71---------------------. 20 36 52 68. 3.2 Distribution of Population (in %) of Assam (1951-1971) based on religion----. 71. 3.3 Violent Incidents during Assam Movement------------------------------------------ 73 3.4 Battalion Names and Area of Responsibility of ULFA----------------------------- 76 4.1 Casualties in Violence related to ULFA----------------------------------------------. 87. 4.2. 90. 4.3. 治 Incentives for Surrender of Arms for政 ULFA----------------------------------------大立 Differences between SULFA and ULFA(I)-----------------------------------------‧ 國. 學. 5.1 Practiced Religions and their Number of Adherents, Mindanao, by Region,. 104 109. ‧. 120. 6.1 Showing the differences between MNLF and its factions-------------------------. 145 154. Nat. 5.2 Estimated Moro and Non-Moro Populations in Mindanao, 1903-1980----------. y. 2015----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------. sit. 6.2 Key features of the 1996 GRP-MNLF Peace Agreement--------------------------. er. io. 6.3 Cost of the Mindanao War between the GPH and MNLF-------------------------- 154-155. n. a l cases chosen ---------------------------------------7.1 Variables compared in the two iv Ch. engchi. Un. 184. FIGURES:. 1.1 Similarities between ULFA and MNLF movements--------------------------------. 6. 1.2 Dissimilarities between ULFA and MNLF movements----------------------------. 7. 2.1 A Framework of the Mediators in the Conflict Resolution Process--------------. 56. 2.2 Conceptual Framework of the Thesis-------------------------------------------------. 58. 7.1 Key Findings for a Successful Mediation Effort------------------------------------- 181. ix DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(12) CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Mediators in Peace Process The study of armed separatist movements (see in the literature review) is a complex process. A conflict involves various aspects to it, such as its origin, trajectory, escalation, the period of stalemate, negotiation, dispute settlement, and post-conflict peacebuilding. Studies on separatist movements have mostly focused on the strategies of fighting and post-conflict peacebuilding. Researchers have mainly analyzed the crisis's impact and its challenges to the civilians and armed forces (see literature review).. 治政 Recently, there has been a growing role of mediators in大 armed conflicts around the world. 立 According to available data, since the mid-1990s, almost half of all mediation efforts worldwide 1. ‧ 國. 學. involved more than one-third party2 (Beber, 2010, p. 3-4). Another research study of international conflicts between 1945 and 1990 found out that in 241 conflicts mediation method was used almost. ‧. six times more often than any other conflict management activity (Bercovitch & Houston, 1996,. sit. y. Nat. p. 4). The data mentioned above shows the importance of mediation efforts in conflict resolution.. er. io. This research aims to examine the role of mediator (3rd party negotiators) interventions in ethnic. n. conflicts and give the mediators thea proper credit for their efforts to attain peace. In the previous. l. iv. studies, there has been a lack of research Con conflict preventionnand what aspects to focus on once. hen. hi U. g cless research comparing the ethnic conflicts a peace agreement has been signed. There has been. and the peace process involved in India and the Philippines. The cases focused on the thesis are unique in themselves. The Indian case involved a local mediator, and no foreign mediator was accepted by the Government of India (GOI). In contrast, in the Philippines case, there was always a foreign mediator involved. The question of why the topics were chosen from India and the Philippines only? In the subsequent sub-sections, it has been discussed in detail.. 1 2. I will be using “Mediation”, “Conflict Intervention” or “Negotiation” alternatively according to the authors cited I will be using “Mediators”, “peace negotiators” or “Third-party” interchangeably according to the authors cited.. 1 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(13) In general, mediation is considered to be done by a neutral party in a conflict to give talks and peace a chance. Traditionally, the mediators' role has been to bring conflicting parties to talk to one another, but, over time, the parts that mediators play have been expanding. These roles now include monitoring the peace process, drafting ceasefire agreements, supporting post-negotiation development initiatives. In the following sections, we will understand why it is a major concern to study mediation in peace processes. 1.2 CASES Chosen This thesis aims to address the role of mediators by taking two case studies. One is from the Northeastern Region (NER) of India with the separatist group of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA). The second is the Southern Philippines' Moro Conflict within the Mindanao region,. 政治大 followed by both groups. The ULFA 立 and the MNLF were chosen for this thesis as no previous specifically Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the various factions and policies. ‧ 國. 學. studies have been conducted on the role of mediators in the peace process in these regions. Both regions have multiple tribes, each having different customs, religions, and languages.. ‧. Understanding the area and the conflict will contribute to policymakers' efforts in India and the Philippines, aiming for peace and stability.. y. Nat. sit. The reason for case selection is as important as understanding the literature and methodology. er. io. related to research. There are some requirements for a non-biased case selection. First, a well-. n. al v defined research objective and appropriate research strategy are irequired. Secondly, cases should n. C. h e n g corhbecause not be chosen simply because they are "interesting" i U much data exist for studying them (George & Bennett,2005, p. 69). Thirdly, while choosing a case, the researcher has a particular goal for it. As John Gerring argues, any attempt to compare the issues must focus on the goals that are appropriate to that technique (Gerring, 2017, p. 48). Selecting the cases for this thesis involved background reading of various internal armed conflicts in the world (see literature review). Later in this section, it will be discussed why these two particular cases, i.e., the ULFA conflict in Assam, India, and MNLF conflict in Mindanao, the Philippines, were selected. The similarities and differences between them are broadly explained.. 2 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(14) The theme of the thesis is relevant to the current date. Firstly, in 2018, the GOI released the National Register of Citizens (NRC) starting from Assam state3 by amending the Citizenship (Amendment) Act 2003. To ascertain how many legal citizens there are in Assam state, GOI introduced NRC. The GOI considers having NRC across the country to determine the country's total illegal migrants (The New Indian Express, September 26, 2018). Assam was chosen as the first state to have the NRC. It contained countless migrants into the country after India's independence in 1947, significantly changing its demographics. It led to protests by locals, and the Indian Parliament officially acknowledged the problem in 1950, bypassing the Immigrants (Expulsion from Assam) Act 1950 (Joseph, 2006, p.7). NRC is a critical step to understand our case based on ULFA. Later in the thesis, we will cover it in greater detail.. 政治大 more autonomy to Mindanao Island in the south. BOL is being termed as an improvement to the 立 Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) implemented in 1989. Erin Cook has Secondly, in 2018, the Philippines passed the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL)4 , which promises. ‧ 國. 學. mentioned that there have been multiple stakeholders in the Mindanao region. As President Rodrigo Duterte hail from the Mindanao region, he hopes to include all the society sections,. ‧. including the Chairman of MNLF Nur Misuari (The Diplomat, August 1, 2018).. sit. y. Nat. a) ULFA. er. io. It is a group based in NER of India, in the state of Assam. The ULFA was formed as an anti-. n. foreigner movement and later grewa lto be an anti-India group, aiming i v to create its own separate. n. C. h e"Assam" country for the Assamese people. The word h i Ufrom the Ahom Dynasty, which ruled n g c came Assam for more than 600 years. Assam was previously known as "Kamarupa" or "Pragjyotisha." In 1836, Britain decided to make Bengali the state's (province) official language (Baruah,1999, p. 10). Later in 1839, Britishers allowed non-native Assamese to rent land for tea plantations in Assam. The locals were exploited after that point (Roy, 2012, p. 2). Language and immigration policies and an influx of laborers from outside Assam, created friction with locals. C.S. Mullan, a British colonial official responsible for the census report of 1931, predicted that "…immigration was likely to alter permanently the whole future of Assam and to destroy more surely than the. 3. States is used in India in place of the province. Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) was the earlier version of the law. But after passing in the Senate and later on ratified through a plebiscite is now called BOL. 4. 3 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(15) Burmese invasion of 1820, the whole structure of Assamese culture and civilization" (Baruah, 2012, p. 31). India became an independent country on August 15, 1947. It gave GOI the power to re-organize the borders of the state. Post-independence GOI came under pressure from different ethnic groups as they demanded separate states which could represent their identity. It created different states from the original Assam. GOI from the original Assam state carved out Nagaland, Meghalaya, and other North-Eastern states. Later, during 1970-71 due to the disturbance in East Pakistan (later Bangladesh), millions of people crossed over to Assam as refugees, changing Assam's demography and putting pressure on local and state governments' resources. According to noted Assamese historian Professor Tilottoma Misra, despite being the largest. 政治大 impoverished and industrially backward 立 states (Misra, 1980, p. 56). Recent data suggest that 69%. producer of tea, oil, plywood, and forest products, Assam remains one of the country's most. ‧ 國. 學. of the population is involved in agriculture, which contributes approximately 30% of the state's GDP (GOI, 2019). Assam's Human Development Index (HDI) stands at number twenty-three. ‧. among all the 29 states and 7 Union Territories of India. HDI rank of Assam is relatively low, considering the number of natural resources found within the country (National Institution for. Nat. sit. y. Transforming India Ayog, 2014).. er. io. In Assam, the fight was against GOI, where there were multiple levels of third-party interveners,. n. a lneighboring country, Bangladesh, mostly from CSOs and NGOs. The played a role majorly in iv n. C. U From 1991, there were multiple arresting and expatriating the leaders of h ULFA e n gfrom c hitsi soil. attempts for peace talks. These have involved the Assam Chief Minister (CM), Indian Prime Minister (PM), ULFA leaders, personal contacts of ULFA leaders, local scholars, and professors. With time ULFA has splintered into factions. The faction is ULFA-I ("I" stands for Independent), which is opposed to peace talks, and the pro-talks are known as S-ULFA ("S" stands for Surrendered). There have been multiple localized attempts to attain peace, with the minimum involvement of neighboring foreign countries and aid or foreign NGO groups in the mediation process. There is a lack of in-depth study on the role of the third-party mediators in this conflict.. 4 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(16) b) MNLF The second case chosen is the Moro conflict in Southern Philippines. The group that is focused on is the MNLF. The MNLF started as a group to create a separate Moro Land for the people. Changes in the demographic composition in Mindanao over the past 100 years due to the gradual 'minoritisation' of local inhabitants, and a 'policy of neglect' by the Manila government, and also in its failure to deliver essential services to the people in Mindanao, contributed to the formation and strengthening of the MNLF (Mercado, 2011, p. 118). Muslims in Mindanao have long protested and claimed that the Manila government exploits its natural resources and occupies their land for its benefit in Mindanao (Vellema & Lara, 2011, p. 307). There were growing numbers of attacks on the Christian communities by the Muslims and. 政治大 "Ilagas" and groups of Muslims known 立 as "Blackshirts" and "Barracudas" escalated to a very high vice-versa. In the late 1960s, deadly armed clashes between Christian settlers calling themselves. ‧ 國. 學. level in the Mindanao area (Dumia, 1991, p. 56).. With such an increase in attacks, Muslim nationalism was significant among the Muslims in. ‧. Mindanao. As we will assess the position and power in the mediation process and the formation. y. Nat. of factions, it will be a fascinating comparison. The majority of the third-party interveners for the. sit. Moro conflict were individual countries and international organizations such as the Organization. er. io. of Islamic Council (OIC). Its member Libya, Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, and Brunei all. n. played a crucial role in bringing theaGovernment of the Philippines i v (GPH) and the MNLF together l. n. C. U it splintered into another faction h talks for peace talks. When MNLF started peace e n gwith c hthei GPH, named Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).. There are multiple reasons for focusing on these two conflicts. Some of the similarities (as shown in Figure 1.1) that needed to be mentioned are: a) Both conflicts by ULFA in India and MNLF in the Philippines started in the 1970s. b) Both groups, ULFA and MNLF, started peace talks. During the peace talks, factions were formed from the leading secessionist group, respectively. c) The armed group's leaders accepted holding positions of power rather than fighting against the respective governments.. 5 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(17) d) The influx of foreigners (who were not native to the place) created a significant disturbance in the region. e) Improper land distribution was also one of the critical reasons for the conflict on both sides to start. Such action agitated the locals to revolt when the government did not heed their pleas.. Figure 1.1: Similarities between ULFA and MNLF movements. Simmilarities Started in 1970s. 學. ‧ 國. 政治大立Formation of Factions Influx of Foreigners. ‧ y. n. al. sit. io. Separatist Leaders Hold Power post-Peace Agreements. er. Nat. Improper Land Distribution. iv. CCompiled by the author Source: Un hengchi. However, there exist some exciting differences (see Figure 1.2) too: a) The ULFA was formed due to land grabbing and language imposition on locals. In contrast, the MNLF was a religious separatist group. b) In the mediation process for ULFA was mostly mediated by the civil society groups. These people are well connected and have personal relations with the ULFA leaders and the government. In the case of the MNLF, the mediators were mostly nation-states, local and foreign NGOs. Libya, Indonesia, and Malaysia were the critical mediators for the peace process. c) In ULFA, there has been no formal peace agreement signed, besides a ceasefire of hostilities. In the MNLF case, there has been a ceasefire and a formal peace. 6 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(18) d) The nation's power5 of India and the Philippines mattered varyingly to whether outside countries could interfere or not. In the ULFA case, India made a domestic issue, with Bangladesh and Bhutan helping curtail the ULFA's support base. In the MNLF case, there was the involvement of various foreign states and religious organizations. They were encouraged to mediate both by the GPH and MNLF after the latter made the issue internationalized by approaching OIC. Figure 1.2: Dissimilarities between ULFA and MNLF movements. Reason for formation. Mediation Process. Nation Power. •ULFA- Land Grabbing and Language Imposition •MNLF-Religious Separatist Group. •ULFA- CSOs, NGOs (Localized) •MNLF- OIC and other countries and foreign NGOs (Internationalized). 政治大. 學. Nat. er. io. sit. y. ‧. ‧ 國. 立. Source: Compiled by the author. 1.3 Research Questions. Peace Deal ULFA- Ceasefire MNLF- Peace Agreement signed. • India (ULFA)Regional power • The Philippines (MNLF)- Low power. n. a l cases, it showed that the i mediators' v By assessing the ULFA and MNLF role was essential in n. C. i U attaining a peace accord. At the same time,hitehas formation of factionalism. It brings us n gledctohthe to the first puzzle: Why mediators succeed or fail? The second puzzle is related to the position and power (see in the Literature review) of the mediators affecting the mediation process. Is there any difference between the mediation techniques between a government-appointed mediator and an NGO? What are the unique advantages each enjoys?. 5. Here nation power constitutes a country large enough to maintain itself without assistance from another country. It includes parameters such as economy size, land area, military, and population, etc. I have discussed the varying nature of power in the Literature Review.. 7 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(19) Thirdly, it is seen that the separatist groups in an ethnic conflict often get split into different factions during the mediation process. One faction may be inclined to talks with the government. Simultaneously, the other(s) strongly oppose any kind of negotiations and continue the armed fight. Due to a small group of fighters or leaders, it cannot bear the hardship of continuing prolonged armed confrontations with the state forces. With the country's government being able to realize their mistakes of having an ethnic conflict, they try to find ways to solve the issue or have a backdoor negotiation to let the formation of factions in armed groups. It is easier for a country's leadership to deal with individual small groups than a larger group, which poses a significant threat to its integrity. In most cases, such splintering of armed groups elongates the fight, which, in turn, leads to more. 政治大 or studies on the formation of factions among the separatist groups. It has left this vital issue 立 unattended, which makes the third puzzle also an important one to address: casualties and makes it much harder to attain peace in the region. There is less existing literature. ‧ 國. 學. Why there is a formation of factions among armed separatist groups? What unique challenges do. sit. y. Nat. 1.4 Main Arguments. ‧. mediators face during the peace process, such as the splits in armed groups?. io. er. The research argues that coordination among the multiple third-party mediators is necessary to maintain peace on the ground and watchdog for the post-peace agreement deals. During such. n. a. v. i or donations for the affected conflicts, many external donors get linvolved C as they providen aid. i U. he. n g interveners ch people. Here, the role of mediators or third-party is useful for coordination among various donors. They can help gather, store, and distribute such assistance in the right locations, preventing the issue of overloading one region of the dispute with help when others have none. Furthermore, it is argued that the mediator's position and power are the most influential in determining the peace deal's direction. It is considered that the influence of state mediators is generally more significant (most of the time) than a non-state mediator such as an NGO or CSO. However, it is not always the case. If we study the peace process between the Indonesian government and the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, or GAM), it was mediated. 8 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(20) successfully by two different NGOs in two different periods. Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue6 acted as a mediator in 1999-2004. Later in 2005, the peace process was mediated by the Crisis Management Initiative7 and the former President of Finland, Martti Ahtisaari (Kivimaki & Gorman, 2007). In contrast, the Israel-Palestine peacemaking process mediated by the U.S. in 1993 saw its failure as the U.S. failed to convince the two side leaders to stop fighting on the ground (Nichols, 2019). However, the position and power are also related to the mediator's intentions, who is willing to mediate in the peace process. This thesis suggests that a mediator's connection and geographical location influence their motives for acting as a mediator. In some cases, a mediator who shares the same cultural roots and geographically close to the conflict comes forward to mediate, taking it as their moral. 政治大 are trusted by all the conflicting parties to mediate truthfully. It is considered that they have little 立 or no personal gains to make from the conflict. responsibility. Those situated geographically far from the war sometimes act as mediators. They. ‧ 國. 學. Mediators from third parties serve as a bridge between two or more parties to the dispute. They. ‧. also give the individuals who are impacted due to conflicts a voice. Mediators also try to support them by providing compensation, saving their lives, and making ceasefire agreements, allowing. Nat. sit. y. them to return to restore their homes and lives.. er. io. Also, the timing of the intervention by the mediators is essential. A mediator can identify the early. n. a l concerns to the government. signs of the conflict and bring those Moreover, suppose the iv n. C. h e n graised. government works to plug the gaps of the concerns c h i InUthat case, it may help avoid an armed struggle by the marginalized population. Another part of the argument is about forming factions among the armed groups when there is an. ongoing peace talk. Such formation of factions is due to differences in ideas, conceptions of peace, and personal relations with other leaders and cadres of the group. The faction group leaders put a lot at stake when they want to continue fighting and living in hardship. It might involve hiding in deep thick forests in harsh climatic conditions.. 6. Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (CHD) is a Switzerland based private diplomacy organization founded in August 1999. Its mission is to help prevent, mitigate, and resolve armed conflicts through dialogue and mediation. 7 Crisis Management Initiative (CMI) is an independent Finland based NGO founded by former President of Finland Martti Ahtisaari in 2000. It works to prevent and resolve conflicts through informal dialogue and mediation.. 9 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(21) 1.5 Research Methodology and Data Source In the previous section, I have discussed the research questions that this thesis will address. It also developed some hypotheses based on the research gaps, which will be elaborated in the literature review and critical argument and possible solutions to such research gaps. This section gives an overview and explanation of the methodology used for this research. Qualitative Research Method This section discusses why the Qualitative Research Method (QRM) was used for this thesis. When we talk about research methods, there are two essential terms to address. The first is the methods, and the other is the methodology. "Methods" can be defined as the processes and strategies that. 政治大. have been applied in collecting the data (JacksonII, Drummond, & Camara, 2007, p. 22). The term "methodology" refers to how we approach problems and seek answers. The term applies to how. 立. one conducts research (Taylor & Bogdan, 1984, p. 10).. ‧ 國. 學. There are two types of social science research methods: QRM, and the other is the Quantitative Research Method (QuRM). QRM refers to research that produces descriptive data, such as people's. ‧. own written or spoken words and observable behavior (Taylor & Bogdan, 1984, p. 12). QuRM. sit. y. Nat. refers to counts and measures of things (Jackson, 1968, p. 3).. er. io. Qualitative methods favor naturalistic observation and interviewing (Padgett, 2017, p. 5). Such. n. QRM observation and talk to thosea people taking part in research v make researchers sensitive to. l. ni. C h qualitative U the people they are studying. Additionally, i researchers interact with informants e ngch. naturally and unobtrusively (Taylor & Bogdan, 1984, p. 23). QRM allows researchers to share in others' understandings and perceptions and explore how people structure and give meaning to their daily lives. Researchers using qualitative techniques examine how people learn about and make sense of themselves and others (Berg, 2009, p. 22). This thesis involves all the points discussed above on the QRM. This research will adopt a case study analysis method of QRM. It consists of an interview with the stakeholders to listen and, where possible, observe how the peace process is being conducted in the respective conflicts and the role of mediator's play. Such interviews will also try to understand how power dynamics influence mediation results. In the next section, it has been explained why the Case Study Method. 10 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(22) (CSM) is used. Questions covered include: why CSM was chosen, data sources, interview process, and analysis. Case Study as a Method of Research Derek Beach and Rasmus Brun Pedersen argue that a " 'case' as an instance of causal process playing out, linking a cause (or set of reasons) with an outcome; they also added that a "case" is the unit in which a given causal relationship plays out, from the occurrence of the cause to the theorized outcome. (Beach & Pedersen, 2016, p. 56). A case must compromise the phenomena that an argument attempts to describe or explain (Gerring, 2017, p. 97). Bruce L. Berg describes the CSM as "which systematically collects enough knowledge about a. 政治大. single individual, social context, occurrence or community to allow the researcher to understand how the topic works or performs accurately" (Lune & Berg, 2017, p. 123). Scholars such as John. 立. Gerring (Gerring, 2017, p. 95) describe the case study as 'an extensive examination of a particular. ‧ 國. 學. case or a small number of issues that draws on observational evidence and promises to shed light on a more significant population of subjects.'. ‧. There do lies some criticism for CSM. First, is it rigorous enough? One of the most striking. sit. y. Nat. concerns has arisen over a presumed need for greater rigor in case study research. The second is. io. er. that it is time-consuming, and that can result in massive, unreadable documents. Robert K. Yin also mentioned that case study research could not be generalizable (Yin, 2014, p. 10).. n. a. v. l C This research has primarily used comparative and multiple research approaches in the broader ni. i U. he. ng c h two cases), it aims to find potential context of CSM. Using the comparative method (comparing causes of social phenomena such as conflict and third-party mediation in this case. The multiple cases taken will help us understand how different the two issues are in various variables such as origins of the conflict, forms of mediation, type of mediators, the policy adopted,. and factionalism in the armed group's research. Jenny Stewart has argued that in the case of a multi-case study, several contrasting instances of a particular problem (phenomenon) are brought together to investigate, or to identify, key factors that seem to have some bearing on an outcome of interest (Stewart, 2012, p. 72).. 11 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(23) Comparative Method This research has employed a comparative historical analysis method for a better understanding of the cases selected. The issues chosen for the thesis are a few decades old. One of the advantages of a comparative method analysis is that it does not follow a particular analysis method. James Mahoney and Dietrich Rueschemeyer have argued that comparative research embodies three features. Firstly, comparative analysis mainly concerns itself with the explanation and identification of the cases selected. Secondly, the comparative method of research takes the unfolding of the selected instances over time seriously. Third, the comparative process involves systematic and contextualized comparisons of similar and contrasting cases (Mahoney & Rueschemeyer, 2003, pp. 111-113). The cases taken for this research from India and the. 政治大. Philippines follow the three comparative methods, as suggested by Mahoney and Rueschemeyer.. 立. The cases chosen for the study in this thesis have used a historical explanation of the conflict,. ‧ 國. 學. determining how the peace process unfolds. It also argues that specific critical incidents during the conflict influence decision making. Finally, it compares the cases and explains how the peace. ‧. process occurs in two different scenarios.. y. Nat. In the following chapters, the cases are explained on how they have unfolded into an armed. io. sit. struggle over time. The cases chosen for the comparison do have some similarities and differences. n. al. er. mentioned in the earlier part of this chapter.. iv. Arend Lijphart has criticized the comparative n that there is no fixed number of C method by saying. hi U. he. n gcomparison c variables between the cases to be compared. Such can create utter confusion and make the volume of data higher (Collier, 1993, p. 106). Lijphart also gave some solutions to overcome the criticisms he made. He suggested that the researcher focuses on "comparable cases" that differ. in terms of the critical variables that focus on analysis. The research has followed the Lijphart recommendations while doing a comparative study. Comparing India and the Philippines cases on a set of variables (see research framework), multiple hypotheses and main arguments were made. This thesis has tried its best to overcome the criticism or challenges that come with the methodologies adopted. The cases chosen for the thesis are relevant to enhance our understanding of private diplomacy, mediation, and factions in the armed ethnic groups. The reason for choosing two cases was to make the findings and understanding of armed conflicts better and efficiently 12 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(24) while comparing them in the Asian context. Even though the cases are from Asia, both have their unique characteristics. The study aims to identify the similarities and differences in the peace process and identifying the crucial variables needed for a prosperous peace. The findings from the cases chosen are not limited to the Asian context only. It can be used in other parts of the world as well. Data Sources and Collection Procedure Yin has suggested six different types of collecting data, which involve: documentation, archival records, interviews, direct observations, participant-observation, physical artifacts (Yin, 2014, p. 101). This thesis adopted two case-studies that are in two different conflict settings.. 政治大 At first, I have done in-depth literature, journal articles, working papers, reports, news websites, 立 Here, the data for this analysis were obtained by the author in the following ways--. and other relevant sources related to Assam and Mindanao's conflict. I have collected relevant data. ‧ 國. 學. from government and NGO websites involved in the peace process in the given conflict and from those who are experts in the mediation process.. ‧. Secondly, I have done my fieldwork in Assam and adjoining areas as the violence in NER India is. y. Nat. sit. very well knitted among each other and also in Mindanao and other possible places (details. er. io. are to be disclosed in the next sub-section). However, in such a place's security situation keeps. n. a with violence by other groups changing and unpredictable association v and factional groups so that l. Ch research will depend on peace in the area. e. ngchi. i n U. Thirdly, I processed the data collected during the fieldwork and come out with some analyses in this part. Additionally, I have tried to meet and discuss in person or via Skype, social media, and email with the scholars about the research and the third-party mediators. They were not accessible during the field visits in the two countries. I tried to match the literature, field study, and discussions with the experts in mediation. I approached a few of them again when I was required to re-confirm any of the doubts shooting up during my research. Fourthly, I have done some archival analysis from local libraries and think-tanks, including educational institutions. It was done to find out if I can find any further information relevant to the study.. 13 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(25) Interview Process and Recruitment of Participants Qualitative interviewing is a way of finding out what others feel and think about their worlds (Rubin & Rubin, 1995, p. 1). A. Schutz has discussed majorly three pivotal characteristics of qualitative interviews. First, they are considered ordinary conversations. Secondly, interviewers are more interested in knowing the facts rather than judging their interviewees. Thirdly, the content of the interview is always open, depending on the interviewee's mood. (Schutz, 1967, p. 62). There are three types of interviews: unstructured, semi-structured, and structured. The researcher suggests the subject for discussion with an unstructured format but has few specific questions in mind (Douglas, 1985, p. 5). In a semi-structured (also called focused) format, researchers look for more detailed information. The interviewer introduces the topic, then guides the discussion by. 政治大. asking specific questions (Merton, Fiske, & Kendall, 1990, p. 15). The interviewer poses particular items in the structured format to get detail, for example, and context (Rubin & Rubin, 1995, p. 6).. 立. To conduct the research, I had to deal with multiple unstructured interviews because of the topic's. ‧ 國. 學. sensitivity to many local residents. The violence in the affected region took a toll on people's minds and hearts. Moreover, it is impossible to have a structured format for an interview with the people. ‧. on such delicate issues.. y. Nat. Interviews can also be classified according to the information needed by the interviewer, such as. io. sit. cultural interviews, where researchers ask about shared understandings and rules of behavior.. er. Topical interviews to learn about a particular event or process. Oral Histories knew about one. n. a l on the life event of those specific time frame. Life History reflects i v being interviewed is studied. n. C. h ein-depth i Udetail how those involved view the Evaluation interview, the researcher learns n g c hand successes and failures of a program or a project (Rubin & Rubin, 1995, p. 6). I followed an in-depth interpretive interviewing. As the research was conducted in India and the Philippines, the situations and the questionnaire were not the same. When the interviewee was not comfortable with the questions, I followed an open-ended listening method and understanding the person's view. Qualitative interviews are useful when one needs to bring some answers to puzzling questions. It is also useful when the research aims to understand the complicated relationships and slowly evolving events. It helps to know how present situations resulted from past decisions or incidents. Conducting interview helps in inductive and deductive research. The inductive method aims to 14 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(26) develop theory and test it with the case studies taken for analysis. The deductive aims first to get information and later try the ideas (Brouneus, 2011, p. 135). For the thesis, the main arguments were discussed, which were tested earlier during the interviews. During the fieldwork, it was found out that the idea of the geographical location of the mediator was the reason for choosing a mediator. Failure of early warning was one of the main reasons for the conflict to start. Additionally, the lack of post-peace monitoring also led to the re-start of the war in the region. The people chosen for the interview must have three significant characteristics. First, they should be knowledgeable about the cultural arena or the situation being studied. Second, they must be willing to talk. Thirdly, when people in the hall have different perspectives, the interviewees should represent the range of points of view (Rubin & Rubin, 1995, p. 64).. 政治大 They were the ones who, earlier in their 立 position, have been doing peace mediation, facilitator, and The people for the interview chosen were the ones who were directly affected by the conflicts.. ‧ 國. 學. the ones affected by the conflicts. Interviewees were government officers, local and central U.N. officials, representatives of International Non-Governmental Organizations (INGOs), and local. ‧. NGOs as well as local population and security experts. The study tried to capture the voices of those available and accessible during the field research period and for an online interview.. y. Nat. sit. For the interview, a questionnaire was prepared (see Appendix 1) in consultation with the. er. io. supervising Professor. Primary data was collected during field research in Assam and Nagaland. n. a l the Philippines, with thei vclause of safety and precautions states of India and Manila, and Mindanao, n. C. h egoing adopted as these places still have conflicts i Uother groups. While conducting the n g on c hfrom interview, the interviewee's culture and personal choice were well-thought-out. When they wished to stay anonymous or did not wanted to have a digital recording of the interview, the interviewer accepted it. The questionnaire was in revising mode. When the interviewee was not comfortable with some questions, such questions were skipped. For the ULFA case, a field visit to the NER of India was essential. The visit was conducted from December 2018- January 2019. During the visit, organizations and individuals from the government, ULFA, NGOs, community leaders, and talking to ordinary people informally involved in the peace process and, in some way or other, got affected due to the conflict. For the MNLF case, fieldwork has been done briefly in March 2018, where I have interviewed a peace panel member from GPH. I later conducted some online interviews with local officials as well, 15 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(27) who was available when contacted. Additionally, brief informal discussions with research scholars from Mindanao and Manila have been done during the visit. Data Analysis Yin has suggested that data analysis consists of examining, categorizing, charting, testing, or otherwise recombining evidence, to produce analytically based findings (Yin,2014, p.132). As this thesis is done through a case study, it is crucial to understand how to analyze it. R.E Stake has described three types of Case study data analysis. First is instrumental, which are illustrative devices used to highlight a larger issue or concern. The second is intrinsic, which focuses on the case itself as worthy of intensive scrutiny. The last is multiple, which follows the way similar to a single case study analysis but for interpretation and expansion, extracts meaning from more than. 政治大. one case (Padgett, 2017, p. 143). Data analysis begins while the intervening is still underway. 立. (Rubin & Rubin, 1995, p. 226).. ‧ 國. 學. The author followed the following steps for analyzing the data during the fieldwork- First, note down the daily short reports of each day's keywords, including the significant reflections and. ‧. learning got from the interviews. Second, as the language used in India's fieldwork was not in. y. Nat. English (the language of the thesis), some time was spent on the translation by myself. Third, map. sit. out different data collected from fieldwork and other findings from books and research works from. er. io. other scholars. Fourthly, it analyzes those collected data and puts them in a format that everyone. n. can understand. Fifthly is to presentathe i v of this research. l findings and my interpretations. n U i e h n 1.6 Contributions and Significance of the Studyg c. Ch. This thesis hopes to contribute to the theory of mediation and policies in the field of conflict resolution. The objective of researching India and the Philippines cases was to find the key parameters that contribute to a successful mediation and the challenges the mediators face in the peace process. Most researches on conflict resolution and peacemaking have been done from a western approach using a point of view that is not local to the region. By coming from the area itself, I was able to see the conflict from a local perspective. Such an advantage helped in understanding the conflict and the peace process from a unique angle. In short, the research will help us address the research questions and also understand the advantages and limitations of third-party coordination. The study's findings would be significant 16 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(28) as it involved interviews, on-ground visits (depending on the security situations), discussion with the mediators, and other stakeholders involved in the mediation process with the two cases taken. By conducting the interviews, the research aims to find out why mediators come out for mediation? Are there any other motives behind the third-party interveners other than stopping the violence? One of the critical contributions that this thesis hopes to make is understanding the formation of factions among the armed groups. Worsening of the personal connections among different leaders in the armed groups is considered one of the primary reasons for factions' formation. The formation of factions can also be seen as a weakness of mediators outside the negotiating mechanism, as mediators have not managed either of the opposing parties during the peace process. Another way this thesis wants to contribute is to understand the role of power dynamics among. 政治大 and led to a peace agreement. It will立 show the different types of mediators involved and the position the mediators. It will look into the data available for the successful mediation, which has occurred. ‧ 國. 學. and power during the peace process. It will try to analyze how the various mediators involved in the peace process coordinate with each other and stay afloat, organizations like PCG in India and. ‧. OIC in the Philippines case, did they faced any challenges and infighting among the members itself? The critical thing to differentiate here would be Policy Making and Policy Implementation.. Nat. sit. y. The stage of Policy Making comes after a peace deal is agreed and signed by the conflicting parties.. er. io. Post-that, the Policy-Making set comes. Policy Making can be defined where all the stakeholders frame the policy with mediators' help. a Policy Implementation can be described as how the system. n. iv l C n was agreed on being implemented on the ground whether it needs further improvement or not. h e nand hi U c g The research findings wish to help governments, organizations, and individuals worldwide. involved in ethnic conflict mediation by finding the coordination policies among the multiple mediators and finding the crucial gaps, failures, and challenges that affect the peace process. 1.7 Limitations As every research has some limitations, this thesis also carries some restrictions on it. First, this study explores the current literature on mediation and factionalism in conflict management. However, it does not encompass all literature in other social science areas, such as sociology or philosophy. Second, this study focuses only on the three main issues in general. There must be more research questions in this field, which might help understand the mediators' mediation process. 17 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(29) Thirdly, this thesis only covers two cases in the Asian context. The armed conflicts and the peace processes in other continents might occur differently. Fourthly, some interviewees could not speak freely during the interviews and hide some details about the conflict and the peace process, which reduced the interview's credibility. Some interviewees also wished not to be documented and not to include some sensitive details shared by them. However, the thesis has tried to overcome such limitations and came out for general understanding, which will be useful for most mediation processes. During the interview, the shortcomings were overcome by looking into other regional conflicts having similar violent patterns. I also tried to speak to the local researchers to get a clearer picture of the conflict and overcome the challenges. Even the QRM and CSM looks very promising, and there do exist various limitations to such type. 政治大 factionalism within armed separatist groups during the peace process, some stakeholders may not 立 be available for interviews or relevant results. There is always a risk that the interviewee will begin to change his/her stance while expressing opinions on the issue.. 學. ‧ 國. of research methods. As this research focuses on third-party mediators' role and the frequency of. ‧. As the two conflicts mentioned in this research started from the 1970s, the founders and the first few mediators were no longer alive. Those who are alive, not all were available for an interview. Nat. sit er. io. to talk with the researcher.. y. or shared any data. Some of the mediators and armed groups are too hard to reach, and few refused. n. Time is also another factor, as I amanot Some key areas were out iv l a native to the places mentioned.. n. C. U Lack of reliable transportation, of reach to access due to security issues orhcurfews e n g cinhthei region. lodging, and security during field visit was another constraint and limitation to this research.. Despite all such restrictions and challenges, this thesis has tried its best and collected all available public sources to reach its objective. This section has provided a detailed method of why QRM is being used for this research. CSM was used to fulfill the QRM. I will be using CSM interviews, collecting essential documents, analyzing newspaper reports, and other reports from think-tanks, educational institutions, and government sources. In the next section, the meanings of various terms used in the thesis will be explained.. 18 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(30) 1.8 Definitions of Key Terms This thesis will be using various terminologies, and it is essential to understand them. The following section will briefly describe the terms used in the thesis, which will be elaborated more in detail in the later chapters of the thesis. Mediation Mediation is non-forceful and mostly non-binding. Mostly it is considered as a voluntary act of conflict management. Not all mediation follows a set of steps. The goal is not always mean to be for an agreement. There have been many times when mediation has ended up in failure. With more complexity, for example, Qatar intervening in peace talks between the USA and the Taliban.. 政治大 Mediators / Third-Party Interveners / Peace Negotiators 立. Therefore, we can define meditation as an act of interfering in others' conflict by "invitation.". ‧ 國. 學. Mediators are those who are trusted by all the conflicting parties. They are mostly invited to meditate to pass the voices from one party to another. They also act as a mouthpiece for the. ‧. ordinary people who are affected. Sometimes mediators are paid to meditate, and some do it because they just want to see the conflict to stop.. er. io. sit. y. Nat. Multiparty Coordination. n. For this research, we will see that various a mediators, irrespective of their power, position, and type. l. iv. C of nature working together to bring perpetual peace. Such U ncoordination could happen either hengchi. formally or informally. The formal way includes having multiple level talks and providing inputs and messages in a proper format. The informal way includes coordination based on personal links to each other by the multiparty coordinators. Conflict Resolution In layman terms, conflict resolution can be defined as ending or solving the issues which gave rise to the conflict. Such problems can be anything from, for instance, lack of development in the affected area, fight between two different groups with different ideologies, clans, religion. Peace. 19 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(31) With almost all conflict resolution aiming for peace, we need to understand peace. As this study focuses on civil wars and fighting struggles within a region, stability can be recognized whenever there is no violent struggle for a sustained time where displaced people will return to their homes and return to their lives. The rule of law comes back in place. Separatist Groups Secessionist groups are less likely to be successful when employing violent tactics, providing further evidence for the secession norm. As we can see from Table 1.1, data from (Griffiths 2014, p. 84), successful violent secessions are declining. In the 19th century, more than 70% of secessions were achieved violently; the number drops to 55% in the 1st half of the 20th century. In the post-1945 era, violence occurs in approximately 21% of the cases.. 政治大 Number of Success. Table 1.1: Success Rate of Secession Movements, 1816-2011. 立. Secession. 1,555. 7. 20. 12. 28. 2. a Source: Griffiths, 2014, p.84. y. 1946-2011. ‧ 國. 162. 11. ‧. 1900-1945. Movements. io. 154. Secession. Movements (%). Secessionist. Nat. 1816-1899. Successful. of. 學. Movements. Rate. sit. Total. er. Years. n. iv l C n U presented authority in the region, h eagainst Separatist groups opt for an armed uprising n g ctheh iearlier which leads to several battle deaths on both sides and affects the civilian population in the affected area. Factionalism Factionalism can be defined as the formation of different factions within a larger group. Factionalism can also be understood as the filter down of those individuals who are non-negotiable and possess a more hardcore ideology of their cause. J.B Bell (1998) and C.E. Zirakzadeh, 2002, (pg. 66-92) argue that "terrorist organizations are not monolithic nor is their structure stable. Rather, they are made up of heterogeneous factions that frequently splinter from one another as the political and economic landscape shifts". Factionalism can occur due to several factors such as the difference in opinions among the leaders, personal gain 20 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(32) among leaders, and also in fighting instigated by the opposition. This thesis will see the significant two-armed groups forming into different factions when the peace talks started. 1.9 Outline of Chapters This thesis will be organized as the following. Chapter 1 will be an introduction to the thesis. It will help understand the cases chosen for the thesis, research questions followed by main arguments, methodology, and data source with details about the qualitative research method and its case study method used, how the data being collected, interview, and analysis of data collected. It also covers the contributions and limitations of the thesis. Chapter 2 focuses on the literature review of scholars' work on mediators, mediation, coordination, and the theoretical and conceptual framework used in this research.. 政治大. Chapter 3 will be discussing the conflict in Assam by ULFA. It will discuss the conflict situation until May 2019. This chapter will explore colonial history, which slowly led to the formation of. 立. ULFA. While we understand the ULFA, it will show us some critical points in the history of. ‧ 國. 學. ULFA, which led to its faction formation. Chapter 4 will explain the peace process that began between ULFA and GOI. Here, we will see how mediators' role in various stages of the peace. ‧. process was minimal. It will also help us to understand the reason for the formation of factions in. y. Nat. ULFA.. io. sit. Chapter 5 will then analyze in detail the history of MNLF in the Philippines. This chapter is unique. a. er. because it has seen various reasons for conflict and intervention by many foreign countries. To. n. v maintain a proper deadline for the ever-changing scenario on the iground, February 2019 was taken l Un. C. h e n gIt cwillh ialso explain how the Moro conflict was as the endpoint to explain Mindanao's scenario.. related to the wars in the SEA region. Chapter 6 explains various mediators in the MNLF-GPH conflict did the mediation and peace process. Here, we will understand how, under different presidents, the peace process kept changing due to their own political goals. Chapter 7 will summarize the findings and a comparison of the two cases used for this research. It will then go through the critical lessons learned through the two cases. Chapter 8 will conclude this thesis with some recommendations for the future mediation process and possibly contribute to the factionalism literature.. 21 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(33) CHAPTER 2 Literature Review and Conceptual Framework This chapter will go through the previous literature on third-party mediation and factionalism among the armed groups. This chapter is divided mainly into three parts. It will first review some literature of the world's empirical cases and how the mediator roles led to the peace process's success and failure. The second part will examine the previous literature on different variables considered in the thesis, such as power, secessionist movements are? Formation of factionalism, the difference between nations' peace processes to nations fighting versus country to ethnic conflict, why conflicting parties want to negotiate during the conflict. It will cover the various concepts and definitions of mediators. It will try to analyze mediators' motivation to mediate,. 政治大. coordinate, advantages and disadvantages, and third-party mediators' challenges.. 立. At last, this part will analyze the mediation to explain mediation types affecting the conciliation. ‧ 國. 學. strategy. In the third section, the research will discuss the theoretical framework relevant to this research. It will also include the conceptual framework, which this thesis would follow in the. io. sit. y. Nat. 2.1 Empirical Cases. ‧. study.. a. er. The role of mediators and mediators' types has undergone gradual changes with time, from being. n. v only the facilitator of peace talks, deciding the next venue for i negotiations, and drafting peace l Un. C. agreements to monitor peace agreements h onethe n ground. g c h iTraditionally, there used to be only one. mediator to facilitate peace talks. The mediator used to be mostly a powerful state or a group of countries such as the U.S.A, E.U, or the U.N. Mediator also included financial institutions such as World Bank, other significant N.G.O.s such as Amnesty International (A.I.), Red Cross, or private mediators, faith-based organizations such as Catholic church, Student Unions (S.U.) and local C.S.O.s. According to Michael Barnett and Raymond Duvall, International Organizations (I.O.s) act as a mediator to preserve the status quo. Their main goal is to freeze the existing power distribution. (Barnett & Duvall, 2005, p., 68). For example, in the conflict between India and Pakistan in 1948. During the war, U.N intervened at India's request and declared a ceasefire line between the two. 22 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(34) sides, which has become the de-facto border between the two countries. In most cases, I.O.s act as a balancer during a conflict, which gives the conflicting parties pause to reflect on their actions. One successful intervention example by mediators involves the conflict between the Colombian Government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—People's Army (FARC). The war was ongoing since 1964, which is one of the oldest in the Latin American region. International organizations also mediated the peace process. The U.N., ICRC (International Committee of the Red Cross), E.U., or countries like Cuba, Norway, the United States were involved in the peace process between the Colombian Government and the FARC (Segura & Mechoulan, 2017, p. 30). Renata Segura and Delphine Mechoulan (2017) argued that the peace talks between the Colombian Government and the FARC were successful as the mediators made both sides abandon the armed. 政治大 First, the peace talks' location made立 Cuba the perfect place. It was essential to keep the negotiators. fight and rather sit and discuss the peace. There were several critical factors for the peace talks.. ‧ 國. 學. far from getting influenced by Colombia's politics and close enough for both sides to consult with their peers there. It complements our argument of the importance of "geographical location" where. ‧. the mediators are based during peace talks. Conflicting parties should not waste much time moving from their locations for peace talks.. y. Nat. sit. Additionally, Cuba provided a space with tight control of who can get involved in the peace. er. io. process and who cannot. Such a firm decision helped in limiting the participation of outsiders. n. a l The mediator's concept ofi v"position and power" helped in getting involved in the crucial talks. n. C. U h e nhave controlling rumors or misinformation. It could if an N.G.O. or C.S.O. had h i problematic g cbeen. got involved in the peace talks, as they lack enough power and influence to push the conflicting parties for talks in the Colombian case. The second was the peace process structure. Sometimes, the President of Colombia tried to include some revisions in the peace draft, which created some FARC frictions. Such uncalled action by the President of Colombia is significant because, as one of the conflicting parties was the state itself, the ruling party did interfere with the peace talks for its gains. Therefore, even the leaders of conflicting parties needed to be understood. It is one of the critical pillars of peace talks. Thirdly, foreign actors' played a key role, especially Cuba and Norway. Cuba was the host, while Norway became the principal financier. Neighboring countries Venezuela and Chile's presence showed the regional support to the talks. U.N. also played a key role as it had already got involved 23 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.

(35) in the conflict since its beginning. The mediation was an example of the positive coordination between more than one mediator with different nation-states and an international organization. As they divided their responsibilities of financing, hosting, and drafting the talks during the mediation process efficiently, they avoided the misinterpretation of each other moves. There are cases of conflicts prolonged for a long time with the absence or failure of mediator intervened negotiations. For example, in 2013, Matt Waldman, in his work has mentioned that the world saw the Taliban opening up its own office in Doha, Qatar, to set up an official communication channel with the stakeholders of Afghanistan's security and stability, especially the U.S.A (Waldman, Chatham House, 2013). In 2013, almost everyone became suddenly so optimistic about the new direction that they hoped a peace deal might be reached in Afghanistan. 政治大 resigned, citing "internal factional struggles to seize control of the leadership" (Mullen, CNN, 立 2015). There was a complete absence of talks between the Taliban's factions (Jackson, 2019, pg. then. On August 5, 2015, CNN came out with a report that the head of the Taliban's office in Qatar. ‧ 國. 學. 20). The fighting continues until this date, and many getting killed. New groups such as Daesh (ISIS) have also spread their tentacles in Afghanistan, making the already complex environment. ‧. more complicated.. Nat. sit. y. However, with continuous violations of ceasefires and new groups such as ISIS getting into. er. io. Afghanistan, a sense of mistrust was created with the constant fight. The talks between the U.S.A. and the Taliban failed eventually. Here, a the conflicting parties' motives were positive initially, but. n. iv l C n later, it changed and led to continuous armed and the peace talks' failure. h efights ngchi U. In another case in Libya, Africa, peace has been shattered in the Southern region between two ethnic groups. The southern area of Ubari town, which is considered the home for Tuareg and Tubu ethnic groups, are in a fight with each other right after Libya's leader Muammar Gadaffi was overthrown from power in 2011 (McGregor, 2016, p. 2). There was a power vacuum created after Gadaffi's death, which held the peace between these two tribes. One of the primary reasons these two tribes started fighting was to control the critical oil fields spread across southern Libya. The fight is now complicated because of Islamic State-backed fighters fighting against all the groups in the region. With the involvement of foreign governments, including the U.S, Russia, France, and many others in the more considerable control of Libya's oil. 24 DOI:10.6814/NCCU202100216.