第五章 結果與討論
6.2 建議
本研究進行台灣能源結構最佳化的過程中，仍有部份項目必須克服 與改善，列出以下建議，以供後續研究之參考：
1. 本研究目前所探討能源供應結構變化，主要只考量了潔淨能源發展 潛力與溫室氣體排放限制，對於是否符合區域化之特性仍有待討 論，未來更可將能源供應安全、能源多樣性，甚至是風險成本等考 量納入模式之中，使能源規劃更加靈活與完整。
2. 模式的參數設定需要大量且正確的數據作為依據，後續之研究需在 資料取得上更為詳盡及完整，以增進模擬結果之可靠度。
3. 本研究現階段能源規劃的結果，以及各情境設定的目標仍存在許多 的不確定因素，下一步將可透過不確定性分析，對能源結構規劃與 模擬結果加以重新評估。
4. 由於國際化石能源的市場價格波動，以及未來潔淨能源成本的突 破，都是影響能源供應成本變動趨勢的關鍵。因此，對於各項能源 的成本預測有待進一步探討，以提升模擬結果的正確性。
5. 建議後續的研究可針對碳交易價格進行敏感度分析的探討，釐清未 來若碳交易價格提高或降低，對於我國潔淨能源發展所產生的刺激 效用。
6. 本研究在多目標的探討上僅考慮總能源供應成本與環境限制兩項目
標，後續可進一步加入核能或潔淨能源開發潛力等目標，使能源結 構規劃能反應出更多重目標間的妥協結果。
參考文獻
中文文獻：
工業技術研究院能資所，(2002)，「台灣地區基本風能分佈」，能源委員會 專案計畫結案報告。
王世鴻，(2011)，「應用地理資訊系統評估潔淨能源之開發潛力—以台灣 地區風能與太陽能為例」，國科會大專生專題計畫期末報告。
台灣中油股份有限公司，(2010)，「台灣中油公司原油及石油產品進口成 本及總量」，臺北。
交通部運輸研究所，(2010)，「97 年台灣地區運輸系統現況及能量分析」，
臺北。
行政院主計處，(2010)，「國民所得統計及國內經濟情勢展望」，臺北。
呂哲瑋、楊英賢、顏哲揚，(2009)，「以生命週期評估擾動分析方法應用 於垃圾回收之溫室氣體」，第三屆環保工作實習成果發表會，台南。
洪德生，(2007)，「台灣能源價格合理化的探討」，第二屆海峽兩岸能源經 濟學術研討會，臺北。
洪銘謙、甯蜀光，(2008)，「垃圾衍生燃料之生命週期評估」，第二十屆環 境規劃與管理研討會，臺北。
凃麗玲，(2005)，「應用多目標規劃於跨國企業產銷分配之研究」，中華大 學經營管理研究所碩士論文，新竹。
陳世圯、塗維穗，(2001)，「公路運輸省思與未來挑戰」，財團法人國家政 策研究基金會，國政研究報告，臺北。
陳啟進，(2006)，「應用多目標規劃方法在住宅社區基地保水之研究」，朝
陽科技大學建築及都市設計研究所碩士論文，台中。
黃宗煌、盧誌銘，(2005)，「我國能源發展與能源結構規劃」，全國能源會 議，臺北。
黃韻勳，(2007)，「考量發電風險之電力供給規劃研究－再生能源範例分 析」國立成功大學資源工程研究所博士論文，台南。
張智淵，(2006)，「生質能之生命週期評估-以甘蔗提煉燃料酒精為例」，
國立臺北大學自然資源與環境管理研究所碩士論文，臺北。
經濟部能源局，(2005)，「94 年全國能源會議具體結論－議題二：能源政 策與能源結構發展方向」，臺北。
經濟部能源局，(2007)，「2007 年能源科技研究發展白皮書」，臺北。
經濟部能源局，(2007)，「台灣再生能源潛力無窮」，臺北。
經濟部能源局，(2008)，「永續能源政策綱領」，臺北。
經濟部能源局，(2009)，「98 年全國能源會議總結報告－核心議題：永續 發展與能源安全」，臺北。
經濟部能源局，(2009)，「能源統計年報」，臺北。
經濟部能源局，(2009)，「能源統計月報」，臺北。
經濟部能源局，(2011)，「99-108 年長期負載預測與電源開發規劃摘要 表」，臺北。
經濟部能源局，(2009)，「再生能源電能躉購費率說明」，臺北。
經濟部能源局，(2010)，「能源統計年報」，臺北。
經濟部能源局，(2010)，「能源統計月報」，臺北。
經濟部能源局，(2010)，「2010 年能源產業技術白皮書」，臺北。
經濟部能源局，(2011)，「能源統計年報」，臺北。
廖國維，(2005)，「應用多目標規劃建構護理人員非週期性最佳班表之研 究」，屏東科技大學工業管理系碩士論文，屏東。
萬晧鵬、李宏台，(2010)，「廢棄物衍生燃料的使用」，科學發展，450 期，
34～43 頁。
英文文獻：
Avetisyan, M., Bayless, D. and Gnuni, T. (2006) Optimal expansion of a developing power system under the conditions of market economy and environmental constraints. Energy Economics 28, 455-466.
Awerbuch, S. and Berger, M. (2003) Applying portfolio theory to EU electricity planning and policy-making. IEA.
Awerbuch, S. (2004) Portfolio-based electricity generation planning: policy implications for renewables and energy security. Paper Prepared to The Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP), and UNEP.
Andreassi, L., Ciminelli, M. V., Feola, M., and Ubertini, S. (2009) Innovative method for energy management: Modelling and optimal operation of energy systems. Energy and Buildings 41, 436-444.
Adamantiades, A. and Kessides, I. (2009) Nuclear power for sustainable development: Current status and future prospects. Energy Policy 37, 5149-5166.
Alarcon-Rodriguez, A., Ault, G. and Galloway, S. (2010) Multi-objective planning of distributed energy resources: A review of the state-of-the-art.
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 14, 1353-1366.
Botterud, A., Korpås, M., Vogstad, K. and Wangensteen, I. (2002) A dynamic simulation model for long-term analysis of the power market. Spain：
Power Systems Computation Conference.
Becerra-López, H. R. and Golding, P. (2008) Multi-objective optimization for capacity expansion of regional power-generations systems: Case study of far west Texas. Energy Conversion and Management 49, 1433-1445.
Blesl, M., Das, A., Fahl, U. and Remme, U. (2007) Role of energy efficiency standards in reducing CO2 emissions in Germany: An assessment with TIMES. Energy Policy 35, 772-785.
Brownsword, R. A., Fleming P.D., Powell, J.C. and Pearsall, N. (2005) Sustainable cities - modelling urban energy supply and demand. Applied
Energy 82, 167-180.
Baban, S. M. J. and Parry, Tim (2001). Developing and applying a GIS-assistedapproach to locating wind farms in the UK. Renewable
Energy 24 , 59-71.
Carlson, A. (2002) Energy system analysis of the inclusion of monetary values of environmental damage. Biomass and Bioenergy 22, 169-177.
Cai, Y. P., Huang,G. H., Yang, Z. F., Lin, Q. G., Bass, B. and Tan, Q. (2008) Development of an optimization model for energy systems planning in
the Region of Waterloo. International Journal of Energy Research 32, 988-1005.
Dornburg, V. and. Faaij, A. P.C. (2001) Efficiency and economy of wood-fired biomass energy systems in relation to scale regarding heat and power generation using combustion and gasification technologies.
Biomass & Bioenergy 21, 91-108.
Drozdz, M. (2003) Polish energy-system modernization. Applied Energy 76, 267-277.
Dalton, G. J., Lockington, D. A. and Baldock, T. E. (2009) Feasibility analysis of renewable energy supply options for a grid-connected large hotel.
Renewable Energy 34, 955-964.
Daniel, J., Dicorato, M., Forte, G., Iniyan, S. and Trovato, M. (2009) A methodology for the electrical energy system planning of Tamil Nadu state (India). Energy Policy 37, 904-914.
Dougherty, W., Kartha, S., Rajan, C., Lazarus, M., Bailie, A., Runkle, B. and Fencl, A. (2009) Greenhouse gas reduction benefits and costs of a large-scale transition to hydrogen in the USA. Energy Policy 37, 56-57.
Dickson, M. (2002) The earth,s own powerhouse-power and heat from geothermal energy. Renewable Energy World.
Florentino, H. d. O. and Sartori, M. M. P. (2003) Game theory in sugarcane crop residue and available energy optimization, Biomass & Bioenergy 25, 29-34.
Fuss, S., Szolgayova´, J., Khabarov, N. and Obersteiner, M. (2010) Renewables and climate change mitigation: Irreversible energy investment under uncertainty and portfolio effects. Energy Policy.
Fan, J., Suna, W. and Ren D. (2005) Renewables portfolio standard and regional energy structure optimisation in China. Energy Policy 33, 279–287.
Fang, Y. and Zeng, Y. (2007) Balancing energy and environment: The effect and perspective of management instruments in China. Energy 32, 2247–2261.
Graham, P. W. and Williams, D. J. (2003) Optimal Technological Choices in Meeting Australian Energy Policy Goals. Energy Economics 25, 585-569.
Giatrakos. G. P., Tsoutsos T. D. and Zografakis N. (2009) Sustainable power planning for the island of Crete. Energy Policy 37, 1222-1238.
Gilau, A. M., Buskirk, R. V. and Small, M. J. (2007) Enabling optimal energy options under the Clean Development Mechanism. Energy Policy 35, 5526-5534.
Granovskii M., Dincer I. and Rosen, M. A. (2007) Air pollution reduction via use of green energy sources for electricity and hydrogen production.
Atmospheric Environment 41, 1777-1783.
Hongxing, Y. Wei, Z. and Chengzhi, L. (2009) Optimal design and techno-economic analysis of a hybrid solar-wind power generation
system. Applied Energy 86, 163-169.
IEA (2007) World Energy Outlook 2007- China and India Insights.
International Energy Agency.
Iniyan, S. and Sumathy, K. (2000) An optimal renewable energy model for various end-uses. Energy 25, 563-575.
Iniyan, S., Suganthi, L., Jagadeesan, T. R. and Samuel, A. A. (2000) Reliability based socio economic optimal renewable energy model for India. Renewable Energy 19, 291-297.
Iniyan, S. and Sumathy, K. (2003) The application of a Delphi technique in the linear programming optimization of future renewable energy options for India. Biomass & Bioenergy 24, 39-50.
Iniyan, S., Suganthi, L. and Samuel, A. A. (2006) Energy models for commercial energy prediction and substitution of renewable energy sources. Energy Policy 34, 2640-2653.
Iniyan, S., Sumathy, K., Suganthi, L. and Samuel, A. (2000) Sensitivity analysis of optimal renewable energy mathematical model on demand variations. Energy Conversion & Management 41, 199-211.
Jenkins, B. M. (1997) A comment on the optimal sizing of a biomass utilization facility under constant and variable cost scaling. Biomass &
Bioenergy, 13(1/2), 1-9.
Jamasb, T. and Pollitt, M. (2008) Security of supply and regulation of energy networks. Energy Policy 36, 4584-4589.
Komiya, I., Torii, H., Fujii, Y. and Hayashizaki, N. (2008) Relationship between students’ interests in science and attitudes toward nuclear power generation Progress in Nuclear Energy 50, 719-727.
Koroneos, C., Michailidis, M. and Moussiopoulos, N. (2004) Multi-objective optimization in energy systems: the case study of Lesvos Island, Greece.
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 8, 91-100.
Lafforgue, G., Magné, B. and Moreaux M. (2008) Energy substitutions, climate change and carbon sinks. Ecological Economics 67, 589-597.
Lixin, Q. (2011) The research of energy sustainable development strategy in China-Based on the analysis of multi-objective decision. Energy
Procedia 5, 1093-1098.
Mahone, A., Woo, C. K., Williams, J., and Horowitz, I. (2009) Renewable portfolio standards and cost-effective energy-efficiency investment.
Energy Policy 37, 774-777.
Mathur, J., Bansal, N. K. and Wagner, H.-J. (2004) Dynamic energy analysis to assess maximum growth rates in developing power generation capacity: case study of India. Energy Policy 32, 281-287.
Mazen, M. A.-K. (2009) Recent advances in nuclear power: A review.
Progress in Nuclear Energy 51, 225-235.
Mezher, T., Chedid, R. and Zahabi, W. (1998) Energy resource allocation using multi-objective goal programming: the case of Lebanon. Applied
Energy 61, 175-192.
Nagel, J. (2000) Determination of an economic energy supply structure based on biomass using a mixed-integer linear optimization model. Ecological
Engineering 16, S91-S102.
Oliveira, C. and Antunes, C. H. (2011) A multi-objective multi-sectoral economy–energy–environment model: Application to Portugal. Energy 36, 2856-2866.
Pavlas, M., Stehlík, P., Oral, J. and Šikula, J. (2006) Integrating renewable sources of energy into an existing combined heat and power system.
Energy 31, 2499-2511.
Pehnt M. (2006) Dynamic life cycle assessment (LCA) of renewable energy technologies. Renewable Energy 31, 55-71.
Qudrat-Ullah H. and Davidsen P. I. (2001) Understanding the dynamics of electricity supply, resources and pollution: Pakistan’s case. Energy 26, 595-606.
Rana, S., Chandra, R., Singh, S. P. and Sodha, M. S. (1998) Optimal mix of renewable energy resources to meet the electrical energy demand in villages of Madhya Pradesh. Energy Convers. Mgmt 39(3/4), 203-216.
Rao, S., Keppo, I. and Riahi, K. (2006) Importance of technological change and spillovers in long-term climate policy”, The Energy Journal, Special Issue, 123-140.
Rena, H., Zhou, W., Nakagami, K., Gao, W. and Wu, Q. (2010) Multi-objective optimization for the operation of distributed energy
systems considering economic and environmental aspect. Applied
Energy 87, 3642-3651.
Suganthi, L., Williams, A. (2000) Renewable energy in India - a modeling study for 2020–2021. Energy Policy 28, 1095-1109.
Sensfuß, F., Ragwitz, M. and Genoese, M. (2008) The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany. Energy Policy 36, 3086-3094.
Soimakallio, S., Mäkinen, T., Ekholm, T., Pahkala, K., Mikkola, H. and Paappanen, T. (2009) Greenhouse gas balances of transportation biofuels, electricity and heat generation in Finland-Dealing with the uncertainties.
Energy Policy 37, 80-90.
Trømborg, E., Bolkesjø, T. F., and Solberg, B. (2007) Impacts of policy means for increased use of forest-based bioenergy in Norway－A spatial partial equilibrium analysis. Energy Policy 35, 5980-5990.
Thornley, P., Upham, P., Huang, Y., Rezvani, S., Brammer, J. and Rogers, J.
(2009) Integrated assessment of bioelectricity technology options.
Energy Policy 37, 890-903.
UNDP. (2004) Word energy assessment. United Nations Development Programme.
Unsihuay-Vila, C., Marangon-Lima, J. W., Zambroni de Souza, A. C. And Perez-Arriaga, I. J. (2011) Multistage expansion planning of generation and interconnections with sustainable energy development criteria: A
multiobjective model. Electrical Power and Energy Systems 33, 258-270.
Verbruggen, A., Fischedick, M., Moomawc, W., Weir, T., Nadaĭ, A., Nilsson, L. J., Nyboer, J. and Sathaye, J. (2012) Renewable energy costs, potentials, barriers: Conceptual issues. Energy Policy 38, 850-861.
VCS, (2008) Voluntary Carbon Standard 2007.1. Voluntary Carbon Standard.
WWEA, (2009) World Wind Energy Report 2008. World Wind Energy Association.
Yoshida, Y., Dowaki, K., Matsumura, Y., Matsuhashi, R., Li, D., Ishitani, H.
and Komiyama, H. (2003) Comprehensive comparison of efficiency and CO2 emissions between biomass energy conversion technologies-position of supercritical water gasification in biomass technologies. Biomass & bioenergy 25, 257-272.
Yoo, S.-H. and Yoo, T.-H. (2009) The role of the nuclear power generation in the Korean national economy: An inputeoutput analysis. Progress in
Nuclear Energy 51, 86-92.
Zeleny, M. (1982) Multiple Criteria Decision Making. New York:
McGraw-Hill.
網路資料：
中華民國全國工業總會服務網，
http://www.cnfi.org.tw/kmportal/front/bin/home.phtml
行政院經濟建設委員會，http://www.cepd.gov.tw/m1.aspx?sNo=0001270 行政院環境保護署國家溫室氣體登錄平臺，http://www.ghgregistry.tw/
行政院環境保護署環境督察總隊臺北辦公室，
http://ivy4.epa.gov.tw/swims/index.htm
台灣服務業聯網，http://www.twcsi.org.tw/columnpage/service/situation.aspx#top
台灣中小型風力機發展協會，http://www.small-wind.org.tw/content/wind/wind_notice.aspx
台灣中油股份有限公司，http://www.cpc.com.tw/big5/home/index.asp 台灣電力公司，http://www.taipower.com.tw/再生能源網，http://www.re.org.tw/RE2/
財政部關稅總局，http://www.customs.gov.tw 經濟部能源局，http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/
經濟部能源局能源產業溫室氣體減量資訊網，
http://verity.erl.itri.org.tw/EIGIC/Index.aspx
經濟部能源局文宣手冊，http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/About/webpage/ingex.htm
GlobalCoal，http://www.globalcoal.cpmVCS，http://www.v-c-s.org
附件一：符號說明
TFCt 第t 年之化石燃料總生產成本 TRCt 第t 年之新興能源總生產成本 TOCt 第t 年之其他能源總生產成本 CTPt 第t 年之碳交易之總獲利
ia 煤類型燃料之子集合，包含燃料煤、無煙煤、焦炭、焦爐氣、
高爐氣
ib 油品類型燃料之子集合，包含液化石油氣、石油腦、車用汽油、
航空燃油、柴油、燃料油、潤滑油、柏油、其他石油產品 ic 天然氣體類型燃料之子集合，包含自產天然氣與進口天然氣 ja 專為發電用途之潔淨能源子集合，包含風力、太陽能、慣常水
力、抽蓄水力、溫差、地熱、洋流 jb 固態潔淨能源之子集合，包含RDF
jc 液態潔淨能源之子集合，包含生質柴油與生質酒精 ka 核能類型之子集合，包含核能
kb 焚化與沼氣發電類型之子集合，包含焚化發電與沼氣發電 w 負載發電型態之集合，包含基載和尖載發電
FUit 第t 年以第 i 種化石能源做為燃料的使用總量 (TJ) RUjt 第t 年以第 j 種潔淨能源做為燃料的使用總量 (TJ)
FEUiwt 第t 年以第 i 種化石能源作為於 w 負載型態發電原料所發的 電力數量 (GWh)
REUjt 第t 年以第 j 種潔淨能源作為發電來源所發的電力數量
REUjt 第t 年以第 j 種潔淨能源作為發電來源所發的電力數量