第五章 軸輻網路之直接與轉運路線決策
6.2 建議
1. 由本研究之分析結果可闡釋航商藉聯營合作得擴大航線載運量、增大運 送船型或提高運送頻次，以降低航運成本，解釋實務上航商普遍採用聯 營之經營模式。進一步，基於航商間的合作與競爭影響貨物載運量大小，
可運用構建的模式分析比較不同的航商聯營合作策略，並進而推估航商 利潤，透過利潤分析以評估不同競爭策略之優劣。
2. 在船型與頻次決策部份，構建的模式除進行單一航線的船型與頻次決策 分析，探討超大型貨櫃船投入營運的航運經濟性外，亦可應用以處理實 務上各種船型與頻次決策問題。例如分析各型貨櫃船的潛在市場，探討 高速貨櫃船投入營運的經濟性，以提供航商調整船隊規模與組成，或提 供造船廠做為建造設計船型之參考。
3. 在軸輻網路的路線決策部份，構建的模式除進行直接與轉運路線決策分 析外，亦可應用以探討軸心港間的港埠競爭與港口選擇課題，或者探討 未來超大型貨櫃船投入營運後之運送路線改變課題。
4. 本研究以解析性方法在二維目標值空間上決定雙目標最小化的柏拉圖最 佳解，並分析決策隨主要因素變動之情形，當欲探討的問題較複雜、有 過多的限制條件而無法以解析性方法分析時，可改為建立數學規劃模式 求解。
參考文獻
1. 許巧鶯，彭美珠，「海運公司之複合快速運送營運策略分析」，運輸計 劃季刊，第三十二卷，第四期，715~744 頁，民國九十二年。
2. Daganzo, C. F., Logistics System Analysis, Springer-Verlag Press, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1991.
3. Blumenfeld, D. E., Burns, L. D., Diltz, J. D., Daganzo, C. F., “Analyzing Trade-offs between Transportation, Inventory and Production Costs on Freight Networks”, Transportation Research B, Vol. 19, No. 5, pp. 361-380, 1985.
4. Hall, R. W., “Direct versus Terminal Freight Routing on a Network with Concave Costs”, Transportation Research B, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 287-298, 1987.
5. 許巧鶯，王志青，「軸輻航空貨運網路之直接與轉運路線選擇」，運輸 計劃季刊，第二十六卷，第一期，95~118 頁，民國八十六年。
6. 許巧鶯，蕭國洲，「廠商以航空貨運中心為轉運站之研究」，運輸計劃 季刊，第二十七卷，第二期，213~244 頁，民國八十七年。
7. Jansson, J. O., Shneerson, D., “A Model of Scheduled Liner Freight Services:
Balancing Inventory Cost against Shipowners’ Costs”, Logistics and Transportation Review, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 195-215, 1985.
8. Pope, J. A., Talley, W. K., “Inventory Costs and Optimal Ship Size”, Logistics and Transportation Review, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 107-120, 1988.
9. Flynn, J., Ratick S., “A Multiobjective Hierarchical Covering Model for the Essential Air Services Program”, Transportation Science, Vol. 22, pp.
139-147, 1988.
10. Tzeng, G. H., Shiau, T. A., “Multiple Objectives Programming for Bus Operation: a Case Study for Taipei City”, Transportation Research B, Vol.
22, pp. 195-206, 1988.
11. Teodorovic, D., Krcmar-Nozic, E., “Multicriteria Model to Determine Flight Frequencies on an Airline Network under Competitive Conditions”, Transportation Science, Vol. 23, pp. 14-25, 1989.
12. Fu, Z., Wright, M., “Train Plan Model for British Rail Freight Services through the Channel Tunnel”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 45, pp. 384-391, 1994.
13. Israeli, Y., Ceder, A., “Multi-Objective Approach for Designing Transit Routes with Frequencies”, In: Bianco, L., Toth, P. (Eds.), Advanced Methods in Transportation Analysis, Springer, Berlin, pp. 157-182, 1996.
14. Teodorovic, D., Lucic, P., “A Fuzzy Set Theory Approach to the Aircrew Rostering Problem”, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 95, No. 3, pp. 261-271, 1998.
15. Chang, Y. H., Yeh, C. H., Shen, C. C., “A Multiobjective Model for Passenger Train Services Planning: Application to Taiwan’s High-Speed Rail Line”, Transportation Research B, Vol. 34, pp. 91-106, 2000.
16. Hsu, C. I., Wen, Y. H., “Application of Gray Theory and Multiobjective Programming towards Airline Network Design, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 127, No. 1, pp. 44-68, 2000.
17. Ghoseiri, K., Szidarovszky, F., Asgharpour, M. J., “A Multi-Objective Train Scheduling Model and Solution”, Transportation Research B, Vol. 38, pp.
927-952, 2004.
18. Rana, K., Vickson, R. G., “A Model and Solution Algorithm for Optimal Routing of a Time-Chartered Containership”, Transportation Science, Vol.
22, No. 2, pp. 83-95, 1988.
19. Cho, S. C., Perakis, A. N., “Optimal Liner Fleet Routing Strategies”, Maritime Policy and Management, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 249-259, 1996.
20. Powell, B. J., Perakis, A. N., “Fleet Deployment Optimization for Liner Shipping: An Integer Programming Model”, Maritime Policy and Management, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 183-192, 1997.
21. Sambracos, E., Paravantis, J. A., Tarantilis, C. D., and Kiranoudis, C. T.,
“Dispatching of Small Containers via Coastal Freight Liners: the Case of the Aegean Sea”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 152, pp.
365-381, 2004.
22. 盧華安，「定期貨櫃航線設計之研究」，運輸計劃季刊，第三十一卷，
第一期，121~142 頁，民國九十一年。
23. 盧華安，徐育彰，「定期貨櫃航線選擇與船隊部署之研究」，運輸計劃 季刊，第三十卷，第三期，577~602 頁，民國九十年。
24. 陳春益，邱明琦，「貨櫃航線網路設計模式之研究」，運輸計劃季刊，
第三十一卷，第二期，267~298 頁，民國九十一年。
25. 郭塗城，朱經武，「定期船停靠港口決策模式探討」，中華民國第五屆 運輸網路研討會，317~326 頁，民國八十九年十月。
26. Ronen, D., “Cargo Ships Routing and Scheduling: Survey of Models and Problems”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 12, pp. 119-126, 1983.
27. Ronen, D., “Ship Scheduling: the Last Decade”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 71, pp. 325-333, 1993.
28. Christiansen, M., Fagerholt, K., and Ronen, D., “Ship Routing and Scheduling: Status and Perspectives”, Transportation Science, Vol. 38, No. 1, pp. 1-18, 2004.
29. Jansson, J. O., Shneerson, D., Liner Shipping Economics, First published, Chapman and Hall Ltd, London, 1987.
30. 董孝行，「貨櫃船規模經濟的分析」，運輸計劃季刊，第十五卷，第二 期，279~299 頁，民國七十五年。
31. 董孝行，「貨櫃船最適船型之研究」，運輸計劃季刊，第十五卷，第三 期，435~459 頁，民國七十五年。
32. Cullinane, K., Khanna, M., “Economies of Scale in Large Container Ships”, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol. 33, Part 2, pp. 185-208, 1999.
33. Cullinane, K., Khanna, M., “Economies of Scale in Large Containerships:
Optimal Size and Geographical Implications”, Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 8, pp. 181-195, 2000.
34. McLellan, R. G., “Bigger Vessels: How Big is Too Big?”, Maritime Policy and Management, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 193-211, 1997.
35. Lim, S. M., “Economies of Scale in Container Shipping”, Maritime Policy and Management, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp. 361-373, 1998.
36. Robinson, R., Asian Hub/Feeder Net: the Dynamics of Restructuring, Maritime Policy and Management, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 21-40, 1998.
37. 王克尹，「超大型貨櫃船之發展及其影響探討」，高雄港，第十七卷，
第五期，民國九十二年。
38. 郭石盾，「海運船舶發展與港口設施因應」，高雄港，第十七卷，第五 期，民國九十二年。
39. Bendall, H. B., Stent, A. F., “A Scheduling Model for a High Speed Containership Service: a Hub and Spoke Short-Sea Application”, International Journal of Maritime Economics, Vol. 3, pp. 262-277, 2001.
40. Mourão, M. C., Pato, M. V., Paixão, A. C., “Ship Assignment with Hub and Spoke Constraints”, Maritime Policy and Management, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp.
135-150, 2001.
41. 謝尚行，張斐茹，「軸輻路網模式在定期貨櫃船定線之應用」，運輸計 劃季刊，第三十卷，第四期，871~890 頁，民國九十年。
42. O’Kelly, M. E., “The Location of Interacting Hub Facilities”, Transportation Science, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 92-105, 1986.
43. O’Kelly, M. E., “A Quadratic Integer Program for the Location of Interacting Hub Facilities”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.
32, pp. 393-404, 1987.
44. 謝尚行，游至誠，王賢崙，「允許集貨港與軸心港不直接相連之海運軸 輻路網模式」，中華民國運輸學會第十六屆論文研討會，891~899 頁，
民國九十年十一月。
45. Drewry Shipping Consultants, Annual Container Market Review & Forecast 2004/05, Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd., London.
46. Containerisation International, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 5-7, 2006; Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 5-7, 2006.
47. Containerisation International, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 5-7, 2006.
48. Containerisation International, Vol. 38, No. 11, pp. 61-65, 2005.
49. Containerisation International, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 5-7, 2006; Vol. 36, No. 6, pp. 5-7, 2003; Vol. 34, No. 1, p. 9, 2001.
50. 傅衡宇，「策略聯盟夥伴選擇評估準測之研究」，國立臺灣海洋大學航 運管理研究所，碩士論文，民國八十六年。
51. 王立志，系統化運籌與供應鏈管理，滄海書局，民國八十八年。
52. Caracostas, N., “Containership Economics for Effective Decision-Making Analysis”, Marine Technology, Vol. 16, No. 4, pp. 353-364, 1979.
53. O’Kelly, M. E., “A Geographer’s Analysis of Hub-and-Spoke Networks”, Journal of Transport, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 171-186, 1998.
54. Campbell, J. F., “Integer Programming Formulations of Discrete Hub Location Problems”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 72, pp.
387-405, 1994.
55. Klincewicz, J. G. “Heuristics for the P-hub Location Problem”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 53, pp. 25-37, 1991.
56. Klincewicz, J. G. “Avoiding Local Optima in the P-hub Location Problem Using Tabu Search and GRASP”, Annals of Operational Research, Vol. 40, pp. 283-302, 1992.
57. Skorin-Kapov, D., Skorin-Kapov, J., “On Tabu Search for the Location of Interacting Hub Facilities”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.
73, pp. 502-509, 1994.
58. O’Kelly, M. E., Skorin-Kapov, D. and Skorin-Kapov, J., “Lower Bounds for the Hub Location Problem”, Management Science, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp.
713-721, 1995.
59. Campbell, J. F., “Hub Location and the P-Hub Median Problem”, Operational Research, Vol. 44, No. 6, pp. 923-935, 1996.
60. O’Kelly, M. E., Bryan, D., Skorin-Kapov, D., Skorin-Kapov, J. “Hub Network Design with Single and Multiple Allocation: a Computational Study”, Location Science, Vol. 4, pp. 125-138, 1996.
61. Skorin-Kapov, D., Skorin-Kapov, J., O’Kelly, M. E., “Tight Linear Programming Relaxations of Uncapacitated P-Hub Median Problem”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 94, pp. 582-593, 1996.
62. Sohn, J., Park, S. “Efficient Solution Procedure and Reduced Size Formulations for P-Hub Location Problem”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 108, pp. 118-126, 1998.
63. O’Kelly, M. E., “Hub Location with Flow Economies of Scale”, Transportation Research B, Vol. 32, No. 8, pp. 605-616, 1998.
64. Klincewicz, J. G. “A Dual Algorithm for the Uncapacitated Hub Location Problem”, Location Science, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 173-184, 1996.
65. Abdinnour-Helm, S. “A Hybrid Heuristic for the Uncapacitated Hub Location Problem”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 106, pp.
489-499, 1998.
66. Aykin, T., “Lagrangean Relaxation Based Approaches to Capacitated Hub-and-Spoke Network Design Problem”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 79, pp. 501-523, 1994.
67. Aykin, T., “The Hub Location and Routing Problem”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 83, pp. 200-219, 1995.
68. Aykin, T., “Networking Policies for the Hub-And-Spoke Systems with Application to the Air Transportation System”, Transportation Science, Vol.
29, pp. 201-221, 1995.
69. Jaillet, P., Song, G., Yu, G., “Airline Network Design and Hub Location Problem”, Location Science, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 195-212, 1996.
70. Oum, T. H., Zhang, A., Zhang, Y., “A Note on Optimal Airport Pricing in Hub-and-Spoke System”, Transportation Research B, Vol. 30, No. 1, pp.
11-18, 1996.
71. Pels, E., Nijkamp, P., Rietveld, P., “Substitution and Complementarity in Aviation Airports vs Airlines”, Transportation Research E, Vol. 33, No. 4, pp. 275-286, 1997.
72. 戴輝煌，「高雄港與香港轉運貨櫃競爭地位之研究」，國立臺灣海洋大 學航運管理研究所，碩士論文，民國八十一年。
73. 戴輝煌，「西太平洋地區樞紐港埠選擇成本比較分析─ACS 模式之應 用」，運輸學刊，第十四卷，第四期，1~28 頁，民國九十一年。
74. 王鴻仁，「以高雄港為中心之貨櫃轉運航線分析」，國立臺灣海洋大學 航運管理學系，碩士論文，民國八十七年。
75. Cohon, J. L., Multiobjective Programming and Planning, Academic Press, New York, 1978.
76. Caney, R. W., Reynolds, J. E., Reed’s Marine Distance Tables, Eighth Edition, Thomas Reed Publications, Printed in Great Britain, 1995.
77. 高雄港務局，高雄港港埠業務費費率表，三版，高雄港務局印，民國九 十一年。
78. Containersation International Yearbook 2002, Containersation International, London, 2003.
79. Frankel, E. G., “New Generation Container Terminal Technology”, Port Technology Journal, Edition 15, Section 1, 2002.
80. 交通部運輸研究所，台灣地區海運運量預測專題報告，交通部運輸研究 所，民國八十八年。
81. 交通部統計處，中華民國九十一年交通統計要覽，交通部統計處，民國 九十二年。
附錄：運用模式推估亞太航運網路之可能轉變
貨櫃運輸自 1980 年代以來快速成長，全球港口近十年的貨櫃裝卸量平 均年成長率 10.5%，至 2003 年已達 3 億 1 仟 7 佰萬 TEU。近來貨櫃運輸快 速成長原因，主要因中國加入 WTO 後，歐美國家持續外包(Outsourcing)給 中國大陸進行產品之生產，因而促進貨櫃海運之成長，在中國經貿發展的驅 動力下，預估全球港口貨櫃裝卸量將持續成長，至 2009 年將達 5 億 2 仟 8 佰萬 TEU，年平均成長率 8.9%(Drewry Shipping Consultants[45])。全球各區 域的成長率不同，以亞太地區的成長率最高，而在亞太地區又以中國的表現 最亮眼。
由於全球整體港口貨櫃裝卸量持續上揚，但各區域進展不同，使得貨櫃 航線佈設變動極大。基本上航線佈設隨貨物運送的起迄點而改變，貨物在哪 裡，航線就安排在那裡。特別是目前遠洋貨櫃航線採軸輻網路，航商在航運 網路中選擇數個港埠為軸心港，以大型貨櫃船─母船航行於軸心港間的主航 線，而以小型貨櫃船─集貨船航行於軸心港與地區港埠間的集貨航線，則航 線變動連帶改變軸心港的選擇，使得航線佈設的變化更多、變動更大。
目前亞太地區軸輻系統主要以香港、上海、深圳、釜山、高雄與新加坡 等港口為軸心港。隨著中國經貿的快速發展，不僅中國的上海港與深圳港分 別躍居世界第三、四大貨櫃港，中國其他港埠的成長亦極為驚人，例如青島、
寧波、天津、廣州與廈門等港口的貨櫃裝卸量高達 20%以上。不僅中國沿海 港口貨櫃量大增，亞太地區的軸輻網路亦隨中國經貿發展而改變，愈來愈多 的遠洋航線直接靠泊中國港口，而且這些快速成長的港口對於目前軸心港地 位有取而代之態勢。未來軸心港高雄港與釜山港是否為中國港口所取代？這 是所有航商、港埠經營者或貨櫃場站業者等人所一致關心的課題。在此嘗試 探討此一課題。
由於詳細的貨物載運量統計數據極少，最新的資料更難取得，因此，本 研究欲以構建的路線決策模式分析目前亞太軸輻航運網路的變動，難採數值 分析方式進行，惟透過前一節範例分析的結果，可以推測判斷網路之可能轉 變。由 5.3.2 節第 1 項與圖 34 分析貨物載運量變動對決策的影響得知：當一 集貨區至目的港的貨量增加時，貨物傾向採直接運送。換句話說，當地區貨 量小且貨物經軸心港轉運時，當地港口為集貨港，而當貨量增大至足以安排