第五章 研究結論與建議
第四節 研究建議
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第四節 研究建議
本文檢視 2007 年至 2014 年美國企業的各季度盈餘表現，是否因為其於前三 年間進行策略聯盟決策，而有盈餘管理或是預期管理現象，藉以迎合或擊敗分析 師預測門檻。由於策略聯盟為公司長期合作之決策，而過去文獻多以三年作為平 均的合作期間，因此本研究以 2004 年至 2013 年間有宣告結盟之美國企業為策略 聯盟樣本公司。此外，本文亦檢測結盟次數及合資與契約型態策略聯盟對於門檻 心理的關聯性。此一節提出未來可能之研究方向，以下分點詳述之。
一、檢測不同價值取向的策略聯盟型態與門檻心理的關聯性
依照聯盟成員在價值鏈之位階，得將策略聯盟型態區分為研發、製造、行銷 等聯盟類型，根據過去學者之研究，包含技術和知識移轉的結盟型式，所增加的 價值大於行銷聯盟，亦即資本市場對於研發類型之策略聯盟有更高的價值期望，
因此，本文建議後續可進一步依據不同價值取向的策略聯盟型態，檢定公司是否 有門檻心理下的盈餘管理或預期管理行為。
二、測詴策略聯盟企業是否透過實質盈餘管理或分類變動以迎合分析師預測 關於盈餘管理之工具，得區分為應計盈餘管理、實質盈餘管理，以及分類變 動三大類別。過去研究發現，公司為了避免發生損失或盈餘減少，而有實質盈餘 管理行為(Cohen et al. 2010)；此外，McVay (2006)指出管理當局會將核心費用
（銷貨成本、推銷、管理及總務費用）移至損益表之特殊項目中，以達到分析師 預測目標。本研究係以裁決性應計項目作為盈餘管理的代理變數，而實證發現企 業於門檻心理下，結盟決策未能視為向上調升應計盈餘的工具。本文建議未來檢 測實質盈餘管理及分類變動與策略聯盟的關聯性，了解企業在策略聯盟期間，是 否基於資本市場誘因而有實質盈餘管理及分類變動的管理行為。
三、探討小幅度跨越分析師預測門檻之策略聯盟樣本公司的管理行為
Degeorge, Patel and Zeckhauser (1999)研究發現只有短暫低於門檻的盈餘會 被向上操控，距離門檻很遠的盈餘則會被限制，亦即公司實際報導盈餘若大幅度 擊敗或大幅度落後於分析師預測門檻，將降低企業從事盈餘管理或是預期管理的 可能性，因此本文建議未來得針對小幅度達成預測目標之企業，探討策略聯盟決 策是否為公司進行盈餘管理或是預期管理之工具。
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