基金績效與基金經理人的操作決策關係密切，但基金經理人的操作決策直接 受到內外部環境與經理人的投資行為與理念影響。為探討影響基金經理人操盤決 策之重要因素，本文根據相關文獻與專家意見，擬定影響因素的陳述與類別定 義，利用Q-排列法決定有效類別定義與合格陳述，並列出其重要性排序。
本文發現基金經理人在操盤決策上一致地重視產業的基本面，但對操盤行為 的自我認知方面與現有的文獻結論存在有差異，顯示受訪的基金經理人主觀的自 我投資行為認知與外部客觀的實證評價間，仍存有差距。本文也發現不同投資區 域的基金經理人，關心的影響因素來源也不同，對於突發性非經濟因素，不論發 生於國內或海外，大多不會對基金經理人產生投資決策上的影響。
不論基金經理人的投資區域是在國內或是海外，從統計的觀點來看，這些受 訪的基金經理人對影響操盤決策因素之類別定義的重要性排序是一致的。此外，
經理人對影響投資決策的因素很少採取固定的反應模式，主要是依據影響力與一 致性等二個面向做出適當的回應。
基於質性研究的本質，本文屬於探索性研究，所得的結論尚處於建立研究議 題概念的階段，未來仍有賴對此研究議題有興趣者進行後續的實證研究，相互比 較印證，才能使此一研究議題更臻完善。
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附錄一：影響基金經理人操盤決策之因素--「專家意見」
專家 1
1. 個股
(1) 根據產業變化：主要觀察產業長期成長率與供需變化，長期成長率高的產 業，傾向較高的持股比率。
(2) 根據月營收變化：營收成長率相對同業較高，或是長期明顯高於產業成 長，代表公司競爭力強，市佔率增加，傾向較高持股。
(3) 根據毛利率變化：毛利率代表公司成本管控能力、相對客戶議價能力與產 業經爭激烈程度變化。
(4) EPS：EPS 代表最後底線的結果，中間除了上述的營收與毛利率外，還有 公司的 OPEX、業外損益。如果是一次性的業外收入，多半不影響持股看 法。
(5) 另外還包括：利基產品、新產品推出、典範移轉、短期接單狀況等等。
2. 整體持股比例
(1) 基本上，共同基金的持股比率長期變化不大，主要是靠經理人的選股能力 與資產配置來差異化，以國內共同基金來分析，大多數持股的區間多半落 在80～85％，即使短期看壞，也很少落到 75％以下。
(2) 持股比率會有大幅落差的情況多半出現在大盤出現系統性風險的時候，如 最近的台股，經理人看法才會出現大幅的分歧。
專家 2
1. 投資組合持股比重：
多頭市場以高持股為原則，通常為85％以上。空頭市場則以法規最低持 股70％為原則，同時輔以若干避險比重。
2. 個股持股比重：
通常以產業趨勢為選擇原則。產業趨勢看好則配重較高，同產業個股配 比以獲利成長性最佳者持股最高，但頇考慮流動性，故亦可輔以次佳個股。
由於個股持股上限為 10％，故一般而言 5％以上屬高持股，但亦因人而異。
另外，至於持股內容上高度集中或較為分散，亦因人而異，視基金經理人操 作風格與策略而定。重壓單一或少數產業雖績效領先機率大但風險亦相對較 高。
3. 整體部位之決定：
同業帄均水帄、總體環境氣氛、產業業績展望、類股強弱勢變化。
4. 各股持股比率之決定：
(1) 依據公司評價（資產負債表優劣、淨值、獲利能力表現是否有低估之情形 等因素判斷）
(2) 個股虧損情形擴大如有股價低估之情形亦將增加持股。
5. 個股選擇標準：
(1) 產業未來三年前景佳，屬於高成長，如三年前的太陽能產業 (2) 公司產能規模持續擴充，財務現況穩健，未來獲利具爆發力 (3) 籌碼乾淨，法人/散戶持股水位皆低
(4) 股價相對基期不高或評價相對低（本益比/股價淨值比）
6. 持股水位：
(1) 總體經濟情況 (2) 政經環境變化
(3) 市場成交量能（注意過熱）
(4) 投資組合是否仍能找到具投資價值的替代標的，如找不到就降低持股 (5) 整體持股率：GDP 與產業淡旺季，配合大盤季線翻多或翻空
(6) 個股持股率：產業成長幅度大，PE 相對低者持股率高，並要求流動性風險
專家 3
影響因素 基金經理人行動
市場因素
利率
總持股比率調整 景氣
戰爭 政治
個別因素
產業景氣
個別股調整 營收、EPS
形象 籌碼
專家 4
1. (1) 總經數據
(2) 企業獲利數字消長.
(3) 國際股市走勢變化.
(4) 匯率走勢變化
(5) 兩岸概念股連動變化.
2. (1) 國際股市、經濟趨勢
(2) 國際大宗物資趨勢、物價指數變化 (3) 台灣總經數據變化、央行貨幣政策 (4) 台灣匯率變化趨勢
(5) 各類股獲利情況及中期走勢趨勢 (6) 中期外資買賣超狀況變化
(7) 股價指數期貨未帄倉變化 3. (1) 美股主要指數中期趨勢
(2) 國際原物料期貨中期趨勢 (3) 國際主要匯率中期走勢 (4) 外資進出買賣超趨勢 (5) 重大經濟及政治消息
4. (1) 企業獲利數字變化（季報為主）
(2) 台灣貨幣供給額變化、央行貨幣政策態度 (3) 各類股指數中期趨勢變化
(4) Vix 恐慌指數變化
(5) 主要股價指數期貨未帄倉及十大交易人動向
(5) 主要股價指數期貨未帄倉及十大交易人動向