Chapter 5: Conclusion
5.3 Closing Remarks
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5.3 Closing Remarks
Offensive realism is both a prescriptive and descriptive theory. It has rejected liberalist prediction that the Chinese Communist regime will democratized once it becomes rich and have built up its middle-class. Offensive realists believe that the Clinton administration had made a grave mistake in pursuing a China policy of “engagement” and “enlargement” rather than “containment” or confrontation. The term “engagement” was intended to convey an embrace of internationalism and rejection of isolationism. The term “enlargement” referred to expanding the community of democratic states. But the U.S.’s role in promoting democracy, while important, was limited. Engagement and enlargement provided little practical guidance for foreign policy decision-making let alone for military strategy.
In the realist view, the key to manage conflicts among states can never simply be fostering “dialogues,” but must be achieve through actual strength. Conflicts and wars among modern states are still possible realities even in the age of globalization, geopolitics cannot be replaced by geo-economic. Ideas of geopolitics like “balance-of-power” must give way to the concept of “cooperative security.” The belief that security threats can be defused by drawing potentially hostile states into a network of cooperation among a broad group of nations, in which they can coexist under economic interdependence and benefit from conflict resolution mechanisms, is but a lofty dream. As realists have predicted, American “engagement and enlargement” policy ultimately failed to liberalize China.
This paper concludes that the unconventional U.S. President Trump has at long last brought the American foreign policy back in line with the realist theory. Through economic and military strategies, Trump and his administration aim to diminish the chances for Chinese economic development to surmount America’s and check its intentions to seek military
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adventures. If the U.S. cannot succeed in pushing Communist China to undertake structural transform and go democratic, it will further develop its economic and military strength. It would perhaps be a mistake no less devastating as helping China join the WTO which helped it develop into a leviathan that is now challenging the U.S. on all fronts. But in fact,
“pre-emptive” actions such as President Trump’s trade war may have limited effects to preventing China’s further developments. President Trump’s stratagem can only delay the detonation point of a war between the two great powers. The only way for the two great powers to escape from the “Thucydides’s Trap” is for the future U.S.-China relationship to contradict the theory of offensive realism.
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