New Trends in Cross-Strait Relations between China and Taiwan
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(2) Core of the problem The core of the entire problem between China and Taiwan lies in their sovereignty struggle that could be summarized in the so-called "one-China" principle. I According to Beijing there are no taboos in the cross-Strait dialogue or consultation if Taiwan only accepted the "one-China" principle. If this outer appearance of China's political integrity is maintained the real design of "one China" could be flexibly interpreted. That is the so-called "yi zhong ge biao-~*~" policy of "one-China", with interpretations of their own. In other words, should Taiwan accept the "one-China" principle Beijing would be even willing to discuss sensitive issues such as defence and foreign policy with Taipei. This is, in fact, a kind of "agree to disagree" compromise between the two sides. But the government in Taipei rejects it categorically. It claims that all the issues, including the "one-China" principle, should be negotiable without any precondi tions. 2 The result is the decade-long political deadlock, one practical example of which is the problem of the "three links,,3 because the two sides are still unable to reach an agreement on the composition of the negotiation delegations. In order to accord with the domestic nature of the "one-China" principle Beijing insists on private societies being involved. Taipei, in contrast, stresses negotiations with government officials to enhance its independent statehood. Taiwan is keen to be treated as an equal entity on a par with China and doesn't want to enter negotiation process as a mere provincial government. These obviously insurmountable contrasts have made the bilateral negotiation impossible so that there are still no direct air and sea connections between the two sides, all goods and passenger traffic must make a detour via Hong Kong or Macao.. Stance of China Since decades Beijing has been constantly upholding its pressure on Taiwan. In order to intimidate Taiwanese from voting for then president Lee Teng-hui in the 1996 presidential election the Chinese army conducted missile tests along Taiwan's coast. Since, in Beijing's view, Lee has shown a strong tendency for Taiwan's independence. But despite all military efforts the outcome of the election was not in Beijing's favour. Lee Teng-hui garnered 54% of the votes. 4. I 'White book of the CP China on one China principle and the Taiwan question' (Chin.), United. Daily, 2000.2.22, p. 14. and 39. 'Beijing's gesture toward DPP just a diplomatic trick.. Recognizing "one China" principle still precondition for resuming', Taiwan News, 2002.2.5, p. 9;. 'China's premier insists on dialoguc "one China''', Taiwan News, 2002.3.6, p. I.. 2 'New Years greetings of President Chen' (Chin.), China Times, 2001.1.1, p. 2; 'Lu Shui-lian:. Vice-President of Taiwan: One China is a theme but not a prerequisite' (Chin.), China Times,. 2002.2.17, p. II; United Daily, 2002.3.8, p. 4; 'As Beijing eases up, Taipei presses its separate. identity', International Herald Tribune (lHT), 2002.3.8, p. I.. 3 Three Links (San Tong) means trade, post, and traffic. Since the problem in the first two parts are. almost solved only the transport links still remains a problem, eNews China Times, 2002.7.1 and. 2002.7.4.. Tensions ease after Taiwan Election, http://www-cgLcnn.com/WORLD/9603/taiwan_elexf day after/; http://www.ly.gov.tw/ly/index.jsp.. Four years later, during the run-up to the presidential election in March 2000, Chmese premier Zhu Rongji warned against voting for the DPP candidate, Chen 5 Shui~bian, and equated this action with a decision for war. Yet, among other reasons, mainly because of the split of the biggest and long-time ruling party, the (Kuomintang), Chen was elected with 39.3%. During the parliamentary 'electlon at the end of 200 1 Beijing kept silent. But still almost the worst scenario in eyes of the Chinese leaders happened. With 39% the DPP became the strongest in Taiwan's parliament (Legislative Yuan).6 In the presidential election in March 2004 and its aftermath processes were very peculiar. Although Beijing did not intimidate Taiwan directly, they made a lot of efforts to solicit the US, Japan and the EU to oppose Taiwan's referendum 7 especially because President Chen had linked it with the election. But on the eve of the election both candidates, President Chen and Vice President Lu were mysteriously shot and lightly wounded during a campaign parade. As a result they were re-elected with a razor-thin margin ofless that 30,000 votes. This prompted a furious reaction from the opposition because they all believe, to this day, that it was fraud in order to disgrace them by means of rumouring the assassination bid as a lcollaboration between the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) and the KMT. It was a strategy of acting like the underdog in order to win sympathy. All three examples show that no matter how China deals with Taiwan, all results run counter to its original intentions. There are two of Beijing's major iconcems toward Taiwan that deserve closer observation. Firstly, the problem of national dignity, and, secondly, the fear that Taiwan's independence :movement could give impetus to a chain reaction that might endanger the territorial integrity of China. Therefore, no one in the Beijing leadership would ever allow '. such a development and they reserve the right to use force against Taiwan which is mainly directed against possible foreign interference. From a realpolitik point of view, Taiwan is not capable to declare independence its own without aid from outside. Foreign interference in the Taiwan issue will up old sores of the Chinese people from their colonial past. This is the one of main reasons why Beijing always reacts so vigorously to Taiwanese efforts itnmards independence. Apart from Taiwan, there are two big regions in China's periphery that also 8 been showing separatist tendencies: namely Xinjiang and Tibet. Visible ,success of these movements in any of these three regions could encourage the . Taiwan is in an especially exposed position since its foreign interference is strongest and Chinese political influence is the least. It seems that Beijing has '''''''r.hed a dead end in its Taiwan policy. In order to get this situation under control, Chinese have to come up with new ideas.. Taiwan's Presidential Election, http://taiwansecurity.orgITSR-President.htm.. 'Taiwan (In) dependence', http://www.asiaweekcomlasiaweekimagazineldatelinelO.8782. 185609,00.. :!!www.cdn.com.tw!daily/2003/07/29/text/920729jl.htm. 'Xingjian, China's Restive Northwcst', http://www.hrw.org/campaigns/china-98/sLxnj2.htm; ihttp://www.chengmingmag.com!new.Jlage_199.htm; http://www.tibet.coml.
(3) 55!!. S.. Continuity and change If we take China's White Book on Taiwan from the year 2000 as a start, there are three casus belli for Beijing, namely: Taiwan's independence, the foreign occupation of Taiwan, or if Taiwan should endlessly delay negotiations over the 9 reunification with the Mainland. In other words, endless delay would mean that Beijing still inclines to use force against the island should it lose patience even if Taiwan did not declare independence. But since the release of the Anti Secession Law in March 2005 things have changed. Now it stipulates that only when Taiwan independence should become a fait accompli, or serious incidents that should lead to Taiwan independence and, last but not least, all possibilities of reunification should be exhausted. 10 It is clear between the lines, only if there is any hope of reunification with the Mainland there shall be no use offorce against Taiwan. But the content is subject to a wide range of speculations. Although, obvious changes in these years are to be established, namely from using force even with no independence to only using force against independence. Moreover, "no independence, no use offorce" could also mean maintenance of the status quo and peaceful coexistence only if Taiwan didn't cross the Rubicon. It also implies the tolerance of the ROC legal structure by Beijing because the current ROC--constitution practiced in Taiwan still insists on its de jure claim over the whole of China. Besides, much in difference to their previous attitude, there are clear signs showing that the contributions of the KMT in the Sino Japanese War in the 1930s and 1940s began to be rehabilitated by the CCP. II Although, according to all school textbooks in the Mainland, the ROC ceased to exist in 1949 when the PRC was established and Taiwan is an inalienable part of its territory. 12 Given all these changes there are at least two significant reasons to be observed. At first, due to the rapid economic development and the increase of its influence in the world the CCP sees it no more necessary to secure its own legitimacy by means of negating the KMT. In other words, Beijing feels confident enough to face the truth ofthe past. Secondly, if the legal structure ofthe ROC in Taiwan is overturned by the ruling DPP it would force Beijing to a showdown. The consequences of an ultima ratio are rather unpredictable and that is why Beijing at heart is extremely unwilling to let it happen. Therefore to uphold the KMT as well as the ROC, even reluctantly, serves the best of China's inter.ests for the time being. Beijing has shown its friendly welcome to the pan-blue opposition parties in Taiwan (KMT,. 9 'White book of the CP China on one China principle and the Taiwan question' (Chin.). United Daily, 2000.2.22. 10 http://news3.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2005-03114/content_2694168.htm. II The role of the KMT military in the war against Japan is clearly displayed in the Museum of Anti-Japanese War in Beijing. In 2005 it was also the first time tor Beijing to celebrate openly the 60th anniversary of recovery of Taiwan from Japanese occupation in 1945. 12 Preamble of the PRC Constitution.. New trends in the cross-Strait relations between China and Taiwan. 559. People First Party, PFP, and New Party, NP) because they have already accepted the one China principle in form of the 1992 consensus. 13 Two months after the adoption of the Anti Secession Law a KMT delegation led by then chairman Lian Chan paid a visit to the Mainland. It's the first official party , to-party contact between the two rivals since 1949 and was followed by the second large opposition party PFP in May and the small NP in July the same year. The impact of these visits was tremendous. Not only did they serve as a rejection of the DPP for its stance against the Anti Secession Law, but they also delivered a clear sign to the people in the Mainland that more than half of the people and of the parliamentarians in Taiwan are against Taiwan's independence. It must have released a lot of the pressure of the Chinese people to the govemment in Beijing in terms of Taiwan's independence. Since the year 2000 when the DPP took office, the media reports of the Mainland have concentrated on the policies of independence. Now they can feel more relaxed. The visits also enlarged the room of manoeuvre for rational policy making of the Beijing leaders vis-a.-vis Taiwan. As a result, the Mainland leaders have started to ofter the Taiwanese people various friendly gestures such as purchasing their agricultural products as well as sending Pandas as a present, etc.. Perspectives of Taiwan Facing China's increasing economic attraction for Taiwan's business world the govemment in Taipei has tried to take countermeasures. Keeping the hurdle high for cross-Strait trade and building Taiwanese national identity seems to be a useful means. I4 But it is an extraordinary phenomenon that in spite of political confrontation between Taipei and Beijing bilateral trade and exchanges are booming rather swiftly. According to official statistics of Taiwan in 2005 its trade with China amounts to $71.7 billion (+16.3% compared to 2004) and it takes 19.3% (+1.3%) of the entire foreign trade volume of the island. Since 2003 China has become Taiwan's biggest trading partner. I5 More significant is the fact that Taiwan's surplus of its trade with the Mainland ($31.8 billion, +12.6%) surpassed the whole foreign trade surplus ($7.8 billion, +27.2%) by an amount of $24 billion. I6 Reaching its highest record thus far, there were over four million visits to the Mainland made by the Taiwanese (out of a total popUlation of 23 million) in 2005 and only around 160,000 visits from the Mainland to Taiwan due to restrictive measures of Taipei. Also in the same year the real investment from Taiwan to the Mainland amounted to $2.15 billion. This increased the total volume of this investment to $91 billion. I7. 13 The 1992 Consensus is another fonn ofthe "one-China" principle which was created by the two. sides in their negotiations in Hong Kong that year. The content of it is the so-called "yi zhong ge. biao -ifl*~". PFP and NP are two split parties of the KMT.. 14 For instance changing the passages in primary school textbooks etc. see IHT, 2002.3.8, p. 1.. 15 http://big5.frnprc.gov.cn:89/gatelbig5/www.chinaconsulatechicago.org/chnlzzxw/t70686.. 16 http://www.trade.gov.tw.. 17 http://bbs.cctv.com.cnlfommthread.jsp?id=7725023..
(4) Therefore Taiwan's increasing dependence on the mainland is inevitable. But in the long run, thanks to the WTO membership of the both sides since 200 I, rising imports from China (e.g. agricultural products) can simultaneously lead to a grad ual decrease of Taiwan's foreign trade surplus with China. This could mean a great challenge for Taiwan. But at the same time increasing trade can also work as a stabilising factor in the Taiwan Strait. Furthermore there are several indications which deserve closer observation. Firstly, since the last constitution revision in 2005 the hurdle for later amendments is too high to be reached without party coalition. IS Therefore a de jure indepen dence is rather unlikely to be realized in the near future and the maintenance of the legal status of Taiwan is exactly Beijing's vital concern. It could be deemed as an effective security measure in the Taiwan Strait. Secondly, since last fall several serious corruption scandals of the ruling DPP have been unveiled one after another. While the opposition keeps on exposing the wrongdoin~s ofthe governing DPP, its popularity is down to a record low of around 20%. I Should the DPP lose the election in 2008, they would no longer be able to manipulate the judiciary system, and even more scandals could be disclosed. Thirdly, although facing China's rapid military buildup in recent years, the OPPosition in Taiwan has been successfully blocking the arms procurement proposition20of the government for more than 40 times in the parliament in the last two years. Especially the Pentagon feels increasingly uneasy and threatened by the emerging Cross-Strait military asymmetry in China's favor. 21 While the ruling DPP prefers to take power politics approach towards China by means of closer cooperation with the US, the opposition parties intend to reconcile with Beijing. For the opposition, which occupies the absolute majority in the parliament since 200 I the question is pertinent: Why do we need so many weapons if we want to make peace with China? Even more significant in this regard is whether the Taiwanese people would stick together when China should attack Taiwan in case of TaiWanese independence? In contrast, due to the rise of China and the Chinese nationalism the PLA (People's Liberation Anny) would have much less concern over their solidarity vis-a.-vis Taiwan. Furthermore, when the worst comes to the Worst, according to the Anti Secession Law, the PLA could react even without further authorizations. 22 Fourthly, along with the rise of China Washington takes increasingly more acCOunt of Beijing's concern including its vital interest toward Taiwan. During the visit of President Hu Jintao in April 2003 to the US, President Bush assured him again that Washington opposes any kind of unilateral changes of the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and the Chinese from both sides should avoid confrontation in. 23. disputes. Among other issues, the support of Beijing, especially on North and Iran, must have played a significant role in Washington's strategic Last but not least, the relations between Taipei and Washington have by President Chen's recent intentions toward independence. 24 As a Washington downgraded the transit conditions for Chen so that he refused to stopovers in the US during his trip to South America in May 2006. 25 I'Compare this to the warm welcome that Washington gave to Chen in the years 2000 and 2001 when he transited the US. The contrast is too obvious. Under these circumstances, in the power game played by the big nations, the strategic significance of Taiwan as an adversary to China is declining ifthe island still sticks to its independence stance.. ,In recent years Beijing has been trying hard to collaborate with the USA on the Taiwan issue while offering increasing amount of friendly measures toward the Taiwanese people. Beijing's double strategy of carrots and sticks has shown some effect by Washington's recent anger toward President Chen and the increasing cross-Strait trade and exchange volumes. All this happened due to the fast growth of Chinese influence in the world. Besides the Anti Secession Law and the visits of the opposition parties have changed a lot the cross-Strait confrontation in Beijing's favour. Add the unreachable hurdle of Taiwan's constitutional amendment and scandal crisis of the ruling DPP, the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is likely to be maintained. Furthennore China is becomin~ increasingly attractive for enterprises, job seekers and students from Taiwan. 6 Should this development continue Taiwan be less and less able to withstand this attraction. According to functionalist theory the likeliness ofusing military force should be decreasing ifthe interactions between the two sides are increasing. Hopefully, this change could detennine the future development of the cross-Strait relations in peace.. Allen KW (2002) The United State's military relations with Taiwan and China, Paper for 31st Sino-American Conference, Taipei (June 2-4) Chen Z (2002) US security strategy and East Asia-talks with famous American strategists (Chin.), World Knowledge, Beijing. 23 http://news3.xinhuanet.com/english/2003-06/02!content_899 579 .htm.. IR Thre~ fourths of the parliamentarians plus &.4 million yes-votes through referendum out of 17 mllhon voters. http://info.gio.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=13370 CtNode=904 mp=1. 19 http;lltimes.hinet.netJnews/20060518lheadline/caa484fa92t2.htm. 20 http://mag. udn. corn/mag!news/itempage.jsp ?f_MAIN__ID= 136 f_SUB_ ID=409. httP ;!!WWw.mnd.gov.tw/modnews/mininews/matter.aspx?publicID=3047 NodeID=3. 22 Paragraph 8 of the Anti Secession Law.. President Chen abolished the Guidelines of Reunification" and the Council of Reunification" in. February 2006 which was deemed by Beijing and Washington as a step forwards to Taiwanese. independence. http://news.bbc.co.uklchineseltradlhilnewsid_4710000/newsid_4712200/4712278.. 81m. 2S High ranking officials such as President and Vice President of Taiwan are barred from visiting. the US due to the US one-China" principle.. 26 'Letter from Taiwan: Go to the Mainland for advanced studies' (Chin.), http://news.bbc.co. uk!. hi/chinese/china_news/newsid] 173000/21 734322.stm.. 24.
(5) 562. S. Tang. Chen S-B (2003) No missiles and no war by the referendum on March 20 (Chin.), United Daily, p A2, (7 December) Chen Y (2003) Referendum on the fourth nuclear power work is okay but on WHO no (Chin.), United Daily, p A4 (30 July) Copper JF (1992) China diplomacy. The Washington-Taipei-Beijing Triangle, Boulder, San Francisco. Westview, Oxford Cossa R (2003) Proposal waves red flag at United States and PRC, Taiwan News, p 57 (December) Haas EB (1987) War, interdependence and funetionalism. In: Raimo V (ed) The quest for peace: transcending collective violenee and war among societies, cultures and states. Sage Publications, Beverley Hills 10 Y-H (ed) (1978) U.S. foreign policy in Asia. An appraisal of American role in Asia, Santa Barbara, California. ABC-Clio, Inc., Oxford Kim YH (1981) American frontier activities in Asia. U.S.-Asian relations in the twentieth century. Nelson-Hall, Chicago Marti ME (2002) U.S. China strategy: Redefining Engagement, Paper for 31 st Sino-American conference, Taipei (June 2-4) May ER, Thomson JC Jr (ed) (1972) American-East Asian relations: a survey. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts Moeller K (2002) Die USA und China: Sanftes Containment, SWP-Studie, Berlin, (April) Rice C (2003) Nobody, nobody should try unilaterally change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait (Chin.). China Times, p AI4 (16 October) Rigger S (2003) New Crisis in the Taiwan Strait? Foreign Policy Research Institute, http://www. fpri.orglevents/#20030918 (5 September) Sun S (2002) Comments on "One State on each Side" Theory (Chin.), People's Net, (8.13) Sutter RG (1992) East Asia and the pacifie. Challenges for U.S. Policy, Boulder, San Francisco. Westview, Oxford Tang S (2002) Some Significant Domestic Determinants of Taiwan's Mainland Policy 1997 and 1998 in Comparison, paper presented at the 18th Sino-European Conference, Stockholm, 2001, The Stockholm Journal of East Asian Studies, Vo1.l2, 2002, p. 1-14 (23-25 Nov) Tang S (2005) Current developments in cross-strait relations and the role of the USA. In: Guenther S, Margot S (ed) Perspectives on cross-strait relations: views from Europe. Hamburg, pp 167-186 Textbook of Taiwan Question (2001) (Chin.), Beijing: Party Academy of CP China Waltz K (1979) Theory of international politics. Addison-Wesley, Boston Wendt A (1994) Collective identity formation and the international state. Am Polit Sci Rev, 88 (2) (June) Wendt A (1999) Social theory of international politics. Cambridge University Press. AEJ 4:563-581 (2006) DOl 1O.1007/810308-006-0085-z. ORIGINAL PAPER. Magnus Petersson. Myanmar in EU-AS. Published online: 30 September 2006 © Springer-Verlag 2006. Abstract The aim of this paper is to. institutionalism in Europe and Southc regional 'outcast' whose membersh Nations in 1997 has helped it to gain relatively strong against Western sanl wave of ASEAN norms and a comml how long the country can continue to ' on the 'ASEAN Way' in dealing wi political dialogue with the European sovereign equality in institutionalisIT Union has gone against many of its t Southeast Asia. The paper puts p relationship rather than on the eco successful. The role of values and the described as the greatest obstacle for. Introduction. The relations between Europe and Sc Through the 20th century, the relations several stages: from colonialism, wheT as second class citizens, to de-coloniz 1990s.. M. Petersson Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, N, Singapore, Singapore Present address: M. Petersson ([8:]) Movagen 116, 360 42 Braas, Sweden E-mail: bielskoboy@hotmail.com.
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