美國量化寬鬆政策對亞洲各國股市、匯市、外匯準備影響探討及因素分析 - 政大學術集成

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(1)＊. 子子. 子. 二反＊. 立. 政治引大. ‧ 國. 學. The Impact and Factor Analysis of Quantitative Easing on Stock. ‧. Market, Exchange Market and Foreign Reserve: Evidence from. n. al. y er. io. sit. Nat. Asia Region.. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 力. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(2) 2008. 已二反. ＊. 二反＊. ＊. ＝. （. 二反. ＊. ＝引 QE3. 立 QE3. io. 了. QE1. ）. al. QE3. Ch. 三. y. 三. n. 引. 方. ‧. 引. Nat. 二反＊. ＝化. 。. ＝. sit. 二反＊. ＝. ＝. 學. ‧ 國. QE1. 政治大. er. QE1. engchi. i v文 n U. 三二反. 天，. ）引. QE1 。. 手. 天。 QE3. 引天. 二反＊. Tail Event. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(3) Abstract Since the financial crisis in 2008, the Fed’s interest rate was too low that they couldn’t use traditional means to stimulate market, instead, they introduced abnormally Quantitative Easing policy to rescue market from liquidity traps. This study divides into three parts. The first part mainly discusses the impact of FOMC’s eight annual meetings and the important dates of announcement on the stock and exchange markets of ten Asian countries. According to the analysis, the exchange rate is significant in four and five countries after announcement of QE1, QE3 and QE3 tapering, while the stock. 政治大 QE3 tapering. This article 立further observes whether the funds has flowed to or. market is significant in five and three countries after the announcement of QE1 and. ‧ 國. 學. outflowed from Asia after announcement of QE and reduction on balance sheet. It considers not only on the exchange rate, foreign exchange reserve, stock index, but the. ‧. Capital Push Index I and II to examine capital flows of QE. We find out that QE1 and. sit. y. Nat. QE3 tapering has the largest effect on both of exchange, reserve and stock market,. al. er. io. causing funds inflow after QE1 and funds outflow after QE3 tapering. Finally, this. v. n. paper analyzes the different market conditions such as overall economic, market size,. Ch. engchi. i n U. quantity of capital inflows or outflows, capital sensitivity and monetary base. This research uses regression methods to test which factors will result in preference of funds between countries. The result shows that quantity of capital inflows or outflows and capital sensitivity are two reasons in exchange rate market during QE1, with capital sensitivity in stock market. Meanwhile, monetary base factor is notable after QE3 tapering, which means some countries maintain stable growth of stock market by releasing domestic currency while exchange rates and reserve keep dropping.. Keywords. Quantitative Easing, Tail Event Study, Analysis of Capital Flow, Factor Analysis. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(4) …………………………………………………………………………1 …………………………………………………………..1 ……………………………………………………….2 ……………………………………………………………………5 ……………………………………………………………………7 …………………………………………………………..7. 治政 …………………………………………….8 大. ＊. 引. ………………………………………………………………9. 學. ‧ 國. 立…………………………………………………………8 ）……………………………………………………………………10. ‧. ＊. ……………………………………………10. 引. sit. y. Nat. …………………………………………………………23. al. er. io. ………………………………………………………………39. v. n. …………………………………………………………………………44. Ch. engchi. i n U. ……………………………………………………………………………46 …………………………………………………………………………………48 ＊. ……………………………………….48. ＊. ………………………………………55 。 QE. 引. ………………………………….62. 。 QE. 引. ………………………………….66. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(5) 1-1. .....................................................................3. 二反＊. 1-2. ...................................................................................3. 3-1. 三. （.......................................................................................7. 3-2. ，. ..............................................................................................7. 4-1. QE1. 2008/11/25. 手. ...................................10. 4-2. QE1. 2009/03/18. 手. ...................................10. 4-3. QE2. 4-4. QE3. 2010/11/03 手政治大 2012/09/13 手. 4-5. QE3. ‧ 國. ............................12. 2017/06/14. 手. .......................................12. 2017/10/01. 手. .......................................12. y QE1. 2008/11/25. 手. ............................13. aQE1 l QE2C h. 2009/03/18. ...........................13. n. 4-11. 手. sit. io. 4-10. 2013/06/19. ............................11. er. 4-9. Nat. 4-8. 手. ‧. 4-7. QE3. 2013/01/01. ............................11. 學. 4-6. 立. ............................11. 手. n U engchi 2010/11/03. iv. 手. ....................13. 2012/09/13. 手. ....................14. 4-12. QE3. 4-13. QE3. 2013/01/01. 手. ....................14. 4-14. QE3. 2013/06/19. 手. ....................14. 4-15. 2017/06/14. 手. ..............................15. 4-16. 2017/10/01. 手. ..............................15. 4-17. QE1. 2008/11/25. 手. ....................................16. 4-18. QE1. 2009/03/18. 手. ....................................16. 4-19. QE2. 2010/11/03. 手. ............................16. 4-20. QE3. 2012/09/13. 手. ............................16. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(6) 4-21. QE3. 2013/01/01. 手. ............................17. 4-22. QE3. 2013/06/19. 手. ............................17. 4-23. 2017/06/14. 手. .......................................17. 4-24. 2017/10/01. 手. .......................................18. 4-25 QE1. Tail Event. ........................................................................19. 4-26 QE2. Tail Event. ........................................................................20. 4-27 QE3. Tail Event. ........................................................................20. 4-28. Tail Event. ........................................................................20. 4-29 QE1. Tail Event. 4-30 QE2. Tail Event. ........................................................................21 政治大 ........................................................................21. 4-31 QE3. Tail Event. ........................................................................22. ‧ 國. 手. QE2 2010/11~2011/06. 手. QE3 2012/09~2014/10. 手. ................................23. y. ................................23. 2017/10~2018/04. n. al. Ch. 手. n U engchi. 4-37. QE1 2008/12~2010/03. 4-38. ................................24. sit. io. 4-36. QE1 2008/12~2010/03. er. 4-35. ........................................................................22. Nat. 4-34. Tail Event. ‧. 4-33. 學. 4-32. 立. iv. ................................25. 手. .......................26. QE2 2010/11~2011/06. 手. .......................27. 4-39. QE3 2012/09~2014/10. 手. .......................28. 4-40. 2017/10~2018/04. 手. ........................29. 4-41. QE1 2008/12~2010/03. 手. ................................30. 4-42. QE2 2010/11~2011/06. 手. ................................30. 4-43. QE3 2012/09~2014/10. 手. ................................31. 4-44. 2017/10~2018/04. 手. ................................32. 4-45. 三. QE1 2008/12~2010/03. 手. ...................33. 4-46. 三. QE2 2010/11~2011/06. 手. ...................33. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(7) 4-47. 三. QE3 2012/09~2014/10. 手. ...................34. 4-48. 三. 2017/10~2018/04. 手. ....................35. 4-49. 三. QE1 2008/12~2010/03. 手. ...................36. 4-50. 三. QE2 2010/11~2011/06. 手. ...................36. 4-51. 三. QE3 2012/09~2014/10. 手. ...................37. 4-52. 三. 2017/10~2018/04. 手. ....................38. 手. 少............................................................................................39. 立. 政治大. 學 ‧. ‧ 國 io. sit. y. Nat. n. al. er. 4-53. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(8) 1-1. QE1. ＊. Tail Event. ...............................................48. 1-2. QE2. ＊. Tail Event. ...............................................50. 1-3. QE3. ＊. Tail Event. ...............................................51. 1-4. Tail Event. ＊. .................................................54. 2-1. QE1. ＊. Tail Event. ...............................................55. 2-2. QE2. ＊. Tail Event. ...............................................57. 2-3. QE3. ＊. 2-4. ＝. 手. ...............................................62. QE2. 下. ＝. 手. ...............................................62. QE3. 下. ＝. 手. ...............................................63. QE1. 下. ＝. 手. ...............................................64. QE2. 下. ＝. 手. ...............................................64. 下. ＝. 手. ...............................................65. ＝. 手. v i n U...............................................66. ＝. 手. ...............................................66. QE3. 4-1. QE1. 4-2. QE2. 下. 4-3. QE3. 下. ＝. 手. ...............................................67. 4-4. QE1. 下. ＝. 手. ...............................................68. 4-5. QE2. 下. ＝. 手. ...............................................68. 4-6. QE3. 下. ＝. 手. ...............................................69. C下h. engchi. er. n. al. sit. y. 3-6. io. 3-5. Nat. 3-4. 下. ‧. 3-3. 立. QE1. 學. 3-2. ＊. ‧ 國. 3-1. Tail Event ...............................................58 政治大 Tail Event .................................................61. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(9) 1-1. ....................................................................................4. 1-2. 2001/01. 手. ..........................................4. 1-2. 2001/01. 手. ..........................................4. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(10) 2007 Mortgage-Based Security, MBS. 公. Real Estate Investment, 之. 少. 。. 政治大. 立. 予. ＊. 內. 二. 人. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. 之少. Nat. io. 公. n. al. Ch. 之. 升. y. Triple A. MBS. sit. ＊. 之. e n g口c h i. er. REIT. iv MBS n U. 一. Subprime Mortgage Crisis 2007 2008. 9. 4. -. 15 Financial Crisis. 2008 12. ＊. 07. 2008. 16. The Federal Funds Rate. 75bps 0 ~ 0.25bps. 公. 1. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(11) Liquidity Trap Ben Bernanke. 2001. ＊內. Quantitative Easing, QE. 二反＊. 日. ＊. 已. 二 Operation Twist. 反＊. 政治 1-1 大二反＊日立 1.75. 日. 2010/11/03. 士. io. n. al. 小. er. 日. y. 口. 2012/09/13 下. ‧. 了. Nat. 二反＊. 下. 學. 2009/03/18. ‧ 國. 互. 二反＊. sit. 了. 二反. 日. Ch. e n g 二反 chi. 1.63. i n U. v. 下. 2012/12/12. 400. 850. QE1 2013/01. 內. （. 小（ 2013/05/22 2014/01. 2013/06/19. 戶. 2014/10/31. 二反. Yellen 2017/10. ＊. 二反. 下. 了. 40. 下. 2017/06/14 日. 60. Agency MBS. Fed 了. 1-2. 2. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(12) 1-1. QE2. 2010/11/03~2011/06/30. OT. 2011/09/01~2012/12/31 2012/06/20. 互. 內. 了. Nat. 己了. 4.5. io. 0.9. 2018/04 ~ 06 180 Agency MBS 120. 2018/07 ~ 09 240 Agency MBS 160. 二反＊. 下. 1-1. 上中. n. al. 2001/01. Ch. 2018/10 ~ 2020/09 300 Agency MBS 200. y. 1-2 2018/01 ~ 03 120 Agency MBS 80. ‧. 40. 內 Agency MBS 50. 引. 學. 下. ‧ 國. 立. Agency MBS: 400 / : 450 / 2013/01 了內 1 : 750 2-3 : 650 4 : 550 5-6 : 450 7 : 350 8-9 : 250 10 : 150. 政治大＊. 2014/01/01~2014/10/31 (2013/06/19 ). : 6000 75 ) : 6670. Agency MBS. 內. QE3. (. 口內 (Operation Twist). 了. 2012/09/13~2013/12/31 (2013/12/12 ). 2017/10 ~ 12 60 Agency MBS. Agency MBS Agency Debt. 內. sit. 2008/12/01~2010/03/31 (2008/11/25 ) (2009/03/18 ). 日下 Agency MBS: 5000 Agency Debt: 1000 Agency MBS: 7500 : 3000 Agency Debt: 1000. 化. er. QE1. 二反＊. i n U. FOMC. engchi. v元. 大. 手. 。 1-2. 1-3. 二反＊引。. 1.. FOMC. 2.. QE ＊. 3.. 。. ＊. QE. 引. 引. 引手. 3. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(13) 1-1 P. I. SQWU. 1-2 6.5. 立. 5.5. 政治2001/01 大. 手 QE1 QE2. ‧ 國. 學. 4.5 3.5. 1.5. al. n. 1-3. KO. Ch. engchi. i n U. 2001/01. PH SG TW TH CH IN. er. io. 6/1/2004 2/1/2005 10/1/2005 6/1/2006 2/1/2007 10/1/2007 6/1/2008 2/1/2009 10/1/2009. sit. y. Nat. 0.5. HK MY. ‧. 2.5. QE3. v. ID. 手 QE1 QE2. 1.5. QE3. 1.3. HK KO. 1.1. MY. 0.9. PH. 0.7. SG. 0.5. TH. TW CH IN ID. 4. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(14) 二反＊. 子. ＊ Farmer. 二反＊ (2012). ，＊. Bekaert et al. (2013). ，. 之. 二反. (2013). ＊. 六. 政治大. 立. 二反＊. ＊. ＊. Structural VAR 下. n. 引. Bali, Hajhoj, Basher, Ghassan. 二反＊. Miyakoshi, Shimada and Li (2017). 引. 引 Tillmann (2013) ）. Tillmann (2016). 二反＊. Bauer and Neely. v i n (Large LSAPs) C h Scale Asset Purchases, engchi U 。. （. 互. Time Varying Coefficient VAR Model QE ＊. ＝引. （. er. io. 內. 二反＊. y. 子. 引 Wright (2012). 下. 引. sit. 引. Nat. 二反. (2014). 二反＊. ‧. ＊. al. 二反＊. 學. ‧ 國. Ueda (2012a, 2012b, 2012c). (2015). ＊. Kontonikas, MacDonald and Saggu. 之六. Ricci (2014). VIX. ＝. 二反＊＝三. （. 二反＊. 引 5. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(15) 二反＊. 引. 。. Hausman and Wongwan (2011). FOMC. 引 49 ＝又 GDP. ＊二反. 引. 七；. ＊. Aizenman, Binici and Hutchison (2014). 已. GDP. 26 ＝. 三. 天. 支. 天 21. 引引. 引. 天. 政治少大＊. Bowman, Londono and Sapriza (2015). 立. ＊天文. 心. ‧ 國. 引. sit. 引. n. Ch. engchi. 23 ＝. i v三 n U. 手 10. 二反引. er. io. al. 。. y. Nat. 。. 引. ‧. 2013/05/22. Bowman, Londono and Sapriza (2015). ＊. 文仍. 。二反＊. 了. 二反. 手. 學. Eichengreen and Gupta (2015). （二反. 。。二反＊. GDP. 手。. 引. (Event Study). 引二反二反引. 引. 6. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(16) ＊化. ＝。二反＊. ＝. 引. 化. （. 二反. ＊. 引. 政治大。引. 立. 二反. （. ‧. ‧ 國. 學（. y. 三. sit. 分：. n. a：l. PSE. er. io. ：. 3-1. Nat. HK KO MY PH SG TW TH CH India Indo JP EU US. 分. ＝. Ch. 心 SET. e n g c h(i. i n U /. v. ). Niffity 50 225 STOXX 600 S&P500 Data Stream 3-2. ，. ， Floating Free Floating Other managed arrangement Currency Board. 分 IMF 2016 Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. (Pegged to US dollar). Stabilized arrangement. ：. ，. (. ，. 少. 分. ). 7. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(17) ＊. 引. 手手. ＊. 引 Index& − Index&() )/Index&(). Tail Event 小 Bowman, Londono and Sapriza (2015). Tail Event. 二反. 2008/11/25. 立. 引. 政治大 ex.. 二反. 引. ‧ 國. 學. 2000. 手. 2000. 10%. 三. 三. ‧ y. sit. io. Index&-) /0 &-1 /0 &-)2 − 34222.2)~42)7.28 Index&() /0 &(1 /0 &()2 94222.2)~42)7.28. n. al. er. Nat Ln. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 手 QE1 QE3. ＝＝. 2008/10. QE2. 2012/08. ＝＝. 方. 2010/10. 2017/09. 手. 二反＊。 Index&-: − Index Index. &. 引. n ∈ Ν. &. 8. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(18) 三 Eichengreen and Gupta (2015). 三 Capital Market. Pressure Index. 。 Capital. ＝ Market Pressure Index 1. Capital. 三. Market Pressure Index 2. 三. 2000. 心. 三. 手＝. 三. 二反＊. 三. 三. 政治大三. Capital Market Push Index 1 & 2. 三. 立了. 學. Capital market press. index 1 =. % >?@AB:CD 0B&D EDF0D@GB&G/: H >?@AB:CD 0B&D(4222.2)~42)7.28). % >?@AB:CD 0B&D EDF0D@GB&G/:. +. % KD@0DBLD G: 0DLD0MDL. ‧. ‧ 國. 了. H NDLD0MDL(4222.2)~42)7.28). % KD@0DBLD G: 0DLD0MDL. Capital market press. index 2 =H >?@AB:CD 0B&D(4222.2)~42)7.28) + H NDLD0MDL(4222.2)~42)7.28) + . al. +. n. Ch. % R:@0DBLD G: 0DLD0MDL. % R:@0DBLD G: 0DLD0MDL. H NDLD0MDL(4222.2)~42)7.28). +. % R:@0DBLD G: L&/@O PB0OD&. er. io. % >?@AB:CD 0B&D BFF0D@GB&G/:. H >?@AB:CD 0B&D(4222.2)~42)7.28). +. sit. % >?@AB:CD 0B&D BFF0D@GB&G/: H >?@AB:CD 0B&D(4222.2)~42)7.28). H NDLD0MDL(4222.2)~42)7.28). n U engchi. iv. Eichengreen and Gupta (2015) 引. H Q&/@O(4222.2)~42)7.28). y. Nat. Capital market push index 1 = Capital market push index 2 =. % KD@0DBLD G: L&/@O PB0OD&. H Q&/@O(4222.2)~42)7.28). 。. 二反. 二反＊. 。。. 也. 下. 12＝. 互手 Index. 手. 手. Factor. IndexG . α. β. FactorG. 9. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(19) ）＊. 引. 手＝手. ＊ QE1. ＝ QE3. QE1. 引. QE2. QE3. QE3. 。＊. 4-1 ~ 4-24. ，. ＝. 4-1 ~ 4-8. 政治大 4-9 ~ 4-16. 4-17 ~ 4-24. 4-1 PH. QE1 SG. TW. TH. 2008/11/25 India. Indo. 手 JP. EU. ‧. MY. 手. 學. KO. ‧ 國. 立. 三. US. Mean Median. sit. y. Nat. 200810 16.49% 2.30% 2.78% 3.38% 2.22% 0.49% 6.66% 6.52% -6.16% 8.15% 6.25% 5.11% 3.08%. n. al. er. io. 200811 5.93% 1.89% 2.30% 1.98% 1.29% 1.87% 0.82% 16.26% -3.20% 4.19% 4.01% 4.04% 1.93%. 200812 -2.83% -1.12% -2.44% -2.04% 0.08% -0.17% -0.73% -3.02% -5.83% -5.68% -4.02% -1.54% -1.58%. i n U. v. 200901 -0.56% 0.57% -1.50% 0.92% 0.58% -0.33% 0.42% -0.99% -1.06% 1.84% 1.18% -0.11% 0.05%. Ch. engchi. 200902 6.38% 1.88% 0.92% 1.87% 2.78% 1.21% 0.90% 6.41% 2.87% 3.64% 3.08% 2.79% 1.87%. 4-2. KO. MY. PH. QE1 SG. TW. TH. 2009/03/18 India. Indo. 手 JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 200901 -0.56% 0.57% -1.50% 0.92% 0.58% -0.33% 0.42% -0.99% -1.06% 1.84% 1.18% -0.11% 0.05% 200902 6.38% 1.88% 0.92% 1.87% 2.78% 1.21% 0.90% 6.41% 2.87% 3.64% 3.08% 2.79% 1.87%. 200903 0.91% 1.12% 1.60% 0.79% 0.22% 1.22% 3.96% 0.02% 5.39% -1.88% -0.15% 1.23% 1.01% 200904 -8.07% -1.84% -0.54% -1.72% -1.94% -0.92% -2.27% -6.77% 1.07% -1.19% -1.34% -3.01% -1.89% 200905 -5.85% -2.35% -1.43% -2.88% -2.40% -2.24% -3.03% -5.99% -2.30% -3.37% -3.78% -3.27% -2.64%. 10. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(20) 4-3. KO. MY. QE2. PH. SG. TW. 2010/11/03. TH. India. Indo. 手. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201009 -1.47% -1.50% -2.08% -1.61% -0.58% -2.92% -1.27% 0.09% -1.14% -1.46% -1.30% -1.42% -1.48% 201010 -3.49% -0.19% -1.93% -2.33% -2.82% -2.79% -3.45% -0.59% -3.13% -5.85% -4.46% -2.20% -2.56%. 201011 0.51% 0.48% 0.46% -0.30% -1.59% -0.29% 1.30% 0.15% 1.00% 1.93% 1.28% 0.09% 0.30% 201012 1.57% 0.36% 0.81% 0.52% -1.47% 0.79% 0.30% 0.91% 0.84% 3.20% 2.07% 0.47% 0.66% 201101 -2.30% -2.10% 0.63% -1.45% -2.59% 1.51% 0.65% 0.13% -0.74% -1.12% -1.13% -0.69% -0.66%. 4-4. KO. MY. QE3. PH. SG. TW. 2012/09/13 TH. India. Indo. 手. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201207 -1.90% -0.43% -1.90% -1.40% 0.21% -0.11% -1.11% 0.26% -0.43% 2.02% 0.98% -0.80% -0.77%. 政治大. 201208 -0.91% -1.57% 0.46% -1.01% -0.08% -0.65% 0.20% 0.62% -0.37% -0.96% -1.05% -0.37% -0.36%. 201209 -0.73% -1.20% -0.81% -1.35% -1.34% -1.41% -1.88% 0.65% -0.69% -3.60% -2.78% -1.01% -1.27%. 立. ‧ 國. 學. 201210 -1.57% -0.82% -0.82% -0.59% -1.02% -0.97% -2.58% 0.41% 1.09% -0.82% -0.18% -1.00% -0.90% 201211 -1.71% 0.10% -0.76% -0.05% -0.48% 0.08% 3.30% 0.25% 2.58% 1.13% 1.18% 0.09% 0.01%. MY. PH. SG. TH. India Indo. 手 JP. EU. US. Mean Median. y. TW. 2013/01/01. ‧. KO. QE3. Nat. 4-5. sit. 201211 -1.71% 0.10% -0.76% -0.05% -0.48% 0.08% 3.30% 0.25% 2.58% 1.13% 1.18% 0.09% 0.01%. er. io. 201212 -1.03% -0.07% -0.18% -0.26% -0.26% -0.23% -0.34% 0.19% 3.44% -2.23% -1.14% -0.27% -0.24%. 201301 -0.86% -0.49% -0.72% 0.64% 0.12% -1.85% -0.71% 0.24% 6.12% -1.29% 0.15% -0.45% -0.60%. n. al. Ch. i n U. v. 201302 1.86% 1.87% -0.14% 0.84% 1.80% -0.83% -0.81% 0.23% 4.65% -0.40% 0.91% 0.60% 0.54%. engchi. 201303 1.51% 0.36% 0.17% 0.65% 0.45% -1.04% 1.08% 0.28% 1.78% 3.04% 2.52% 0.43% 0.40%. 4-1 ~ 4-5. QE1. 二反＊ 1.54%. 二反 3.01%. ）. 公 3.27%. QE1. 引 QE2. 0.09% QE3. 0.45%. ＊. 。 QE1. 方 QE1. 1.01%. 方 QE2. （. （. ）. ）. ）. 二反）. 11. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(21) 4-6. KO. MY. QE3. PH. SG. TW. 2013/06/19 TH. India Indo. 手. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201304 1.65% -1.91% 1.05% -0.69% 0.29% -1.44% -0.08% 0.15% 3.17% -0.55% -0.14% -0.12% 0.04% 201305 -0.83% -0.94% 0.44% 0.93% -0.24% 2.32% 1.12% 0.35% 3.25% 0.35% 0.84% 0.39% 0.39%. 201306 2.12% 4.10% 3.96% 0.84% 0.59% 3.56% 6.17% 1.17% -3.55% -1.54% -1.61% 2.81% 2.84% 201307 -0.82% 1.51% 0.91% 0.68% 0.07% 1.01% 2.44% 2.03% 2.40% 0.80% 1.14% 0.98% 0.96% 201308 -0.88% 2.71% 1.23% 0.31% 0.00% 1.53% 5.20% 4.58% -1.91% -1.78% -1.57% 1.84% 1.38%. 4-7. KO. MY. PH. 2017/06/14 SG. TW. TH. India. 手. Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201704 -0.07% -0.72% -0.93% -0.49% -0.93% -1.20% -2.03% -0.31% -2.46% -0.21% -0.74% -0.84% -0.83%. 政治大. 201705 -0.61% -2.02% 0.10% -0.27% -0.77% 0.03% -0.12% 0.15% 1.86% -3.09% -1.80% -0.44% -0.19%. 201706 0.43% -0.88% 0.10% -0.79% 0.40% -1.36% 0.01% -0.12% -1.14% -1.60% -1.31% -0.28% -0.06%. 立. ‧ 國. 學. 201707 0.19% 0.27% 1.49% -0.87% 0.52% -0.77% 0.01% 0.30% 1.41% -2.45% -2.09% 0.14% 0.23% 201708 -0.12% -0.15% 0.59% -0.78% -0.54% -1.42% -0.75% -0.02% -2.37% -2.48% -1.86% -0.40% -0.34%. KO. MY. PH. 2017/10/01 SG. TW. TH. India. 手. Indo. JP. EU. ‧. 4-8. Mean Median. Nat. y. US. sit. 201708 -0.12% -0.15% 0.59% -0.78% -0.54% -1.42% -0.75% -0.02% -2.37% -2.48% -1.86% -0.40% -0.34%. n. al. er. io. 201709 0.10% -1.63% 0.09% -0.78% -0.40% -0.33% 0.76% -0.28% 0.87% -0.85% -0.90% -0.31% -0.31%. 201710 0.08% 0.38% 0.81% 0.72% 0.46% 0.27% 0.94% 1.66% 1.95% 1.33% 1.49% 0.66% 0.59%. Ch. i n U. v. 201711 -2.73% -1.45% -0.87% -0.31% -0.55% -0.99% -0.31% 0.00% -0.10% 0.12% 0.27% -0.90% -0.71%. engchi. 201712 -1.62% -2.16% -1.15% -0.67% -0.44% -0.79% -0.95% 0.23% 0.20% -0.76% -0.61% -0.95% -0.87%. 4-6. 2013/06/19. 2.81%. 6.17%. 4.10%. 3.96%. 上中. 戶 4-7 ~ 4-8. 手分. 2017/06/14. 0.43%. 2017/10/01 1.66%. 0.66% 方. ＝. 引 12. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(22) 引。. ＊. 引. 六. 4-9. HK. KO. MY. QE1. PH. SG. TW. 2008/11/25. TH. CH. India. 手. Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 200810 -3.56% -11.44% -8.68% -2.03% -0.67% -1.06% 0.74% -1.36% -7.66% -11.43% -1.82% -0.33% -2.88% -4.72% -2.79% 200811 7.14% -5.53% -2.52% 2.44% 4.19% 0.91% 3.02% 0.27% -0.91% -0.79% 2.57% -1.25% 5.18% 0.82% 0.59%. 200812 10.02% 0.36% -6.30% 1.96% -0.13% 3.93% 4.44% 3.25% 0.32% 2.90% 2.77% -0.21% 5.82% 2.08% 2.43% 200901 -0.45% 0.26% -0.21% 4.52% 0.89% 0.33% -0.26% -1.67% -1.99% -1.49% -1.91% -5.14% -2.94% -0.01% -0.24%. 政治大. 200902 -2.54% -0.10% -0.25% -0.82% 0.08% 0.52% 2.34% -0.07% 3.41% -0.60% -0.16% -2.45% -2.87% 0.20% -0.09%. HK. KO. MY. 立. PH. SG. QE1 TW. TH. 2009/03/18 CH. India. 手. 學. ‧ 國. 4-10. Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 200901 -0.45% 0.26% -0.21% 4.52% 0.89% 0.33% -0.26% -1.67% -1.99% -1.49% -1.91% -5.14% -2.94% -0.01% -0.24%. ‧. 200902 -2.54% -0.10% -0.25% -0.82% 0.08% 0.52% 2.34% -0.07% 3.41% -0.60% -0.16% -2.45% -2.87% 0.20% -0.09%. 200903 5.19% 2.38% -3.61% 0.30% 0.14% 2.02% 2.56% 2.18% 1.57% 8.46% 0.91% 2.16% 2.40% 2.12% 2.10%. y. Nat. sit. 200904 3.82% 2.97% -0.10% 0.70% -0.66% 1.51% 0.53% 2.82% -1.41% 3.15% -0.69% -0.62% 0.21% 1.33% 1.11%. n. al. er. io. 200905 6.06% 6.72% 0.67% 0.69% -1.26% 2.62% 4.00% 4.01% -1.95% 2.42% 1.24% 3.99% 8.82% 2.40% 2.52%. 4-11. HK. KO. MY. PH. SG. Ch TW. QE2. engchi TH. i n U. 2010/11/03 CH. India. Indo. v. JP. 手 EU. US. Mean Median. 201009 1.80% 1.55% 5.75% 7.71% 0.93% 2.27% 5.19% 3.94% -1.24% 6.44% 3.69% 1.94% 3.62% 3.43% 3.11% 201010 0.36% 1.23% 4.56% 6.32% 1.48% 0.88% 4.79% 4.25% 0.60% 6.06% 0.77% 0.78% 1.72% 3.05% 2.87%. 201011 -0.38% -1.06% 0.45% 5.97% 0.47% -1.19% -1.81% 0.25% 0.37% 1.05% -1.53% -1.94% -3.77% 0.41% 0.31% 201012 1.01% 0.46% 0.66% 2.98% 0.44% 0.72% 2.47% 2.87% -0.24% 3.72% -0.44% 1.22% 1.65% 1.51% 0.87% 201101 1.65% 1.50% 1.52% 1.87% 0.52% 1.34% 1.08% 2.96% 2.63% -0.91% -0.29% 3.04% 1.14% 1.42% 1.51%. 13. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(23) 4-12. HK. KO. MY. QE3. PH. SG. TW. TH. 2012/09/13 CH. India. 手. Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201207 0.45% 0.63% 0.17% 4.77% -1.49% -0.03% 0.39% 0.00% -1.81% 0.05% 0.18% -0.27% -0.30% 0.31% 0.11% 201208 0.65% 0.81% 0.37% 1.22% 1.11% 0.80% 2.20% 1.02% 1.04% 2.28% 0.04% 1.06% 1.42% 1.15% 1.03%. 201209 1.02% 1.62% 1.85% 1.61% 0.67% 0.95% 2.45% 0.37% -4.57% 1.08% 0.30% 0.45% 1.04% 0.71% 1.05% 201210 0.17% 0.45% 0.62% -0.34% 0.33% 0.32% -1.20% 0.07% 1.97% 0.11% -0.22% 0.38% -0.55% 0.25% 0.24% 201211 1.15% 0.81% 0.55% 2.67% 0.64% 0.44% 0.11% 0.31% 1.49% 0.90% -0.26% 0.07% -0.63% 0.91% 0.72%. 4-13. HK. KO. MY. QE3. PH. SG. TW. 2013/01/01. TH. CH. India. 手. Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201211 1.15% 0.81% 0.55% 2.67% 0.64% 0.44% 0.11% 0.31% 1.49% 0.90% -0.26% 0.07% -0.63% 0.91% 0.72%. 政治大. 201212 3.97% 0.27% 0.48% -0.12% 1.48% 0.55% -0.01% 0.42% 1.36% 1.34% -0.21% -0.52% -0.73% 0.97% 0.51%. 201301 -3.99% 0.59% 0.31% 1.72% 1.19% 0.84% 0.06% 2.97% -1.93% -3.55% -0.07% 1.59% 1.15% -0.18% 0.45%. 立. 201302 0.03% -0.46% 0.11% -1.94% 0.07% -0.61% -1.34% -0.43% -0.28% -3.31% -0.67% -1.97% -2.01% -0.82% -0.45%. QE3. QE1. Nat. 0.18%. io 公. al. Ch. 了. 六. 4-14 HK. QE2 QE3 公. QE1. 引. 0.71% QE3. n. QE2. 0.41% QE3. KO. MY. PH. engchi U. QE1. QE3. TW. CH. India. （. 了了. 2.40%. 2013/06/19. TH. 一. v ni. 1.33%. QE3 SG. QE1. y. 2.12% QE2. 2.08%. er. QE1. QE1. 手. sit. 4-9 ~ 4-13. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. 201303 -0.32% 0.00% -0.47% 0.39% -0.16% -0.54% -0.82% 1.39% 0.51% -0.36% -0.35% -1.35% -1.69% -0.04% -0.24%. Indo. 手 JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201304 0.89% 0.42% 0.47% -0.88% 0.64% 0.82% 0.32% 2.67% 1.48% 2.36% 0.29% 0.15% 0.32% 0.92% 0.73% 201305 -0.26% -0.21% 0.80% -1.50% 1.42% 0.35% -1.74% -0.56% 1.88% -1.98% -0.61% -0.79% -1.88% -0.18% -0.24%. 201306 -0.70% -0.50% -3.77% -0.87% 0.85% 0.00% -2.52% -0.52% 4.35% -6.71% -0.92% 0.07% 1.15% -1.04% -0.61% 201307 -1.21% 1.00% 1.28% 2.36% 0.91% 0.62% 0.82% 1.46% -0.19% -5.53% 1.24% 0.32% 1.18% 0.15% 0.87% 201308 1.34% 0.42% -2.22% -0.34% 0.54% 0.07% -2.02% 0.15% 8.28% 0.35% 0.01% 0.59% -1.13% 0.66% 0.25%. 14. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(24) 4-15. HK. KO. MY. 2017/06/14. PH. SG. TW. TH. CH. India. 手. Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201704 1.14% 0.34% 0.71% 1.39% 0.44% 0.21% 1.99% 0.68% -0.17% 1.19% 0.97% -0.93% 1.04% 0.79% 0.70% 201705 0.65% 0.50% 1.98% 0.20% 0.42% 0.42% -0.17% 0.79% 2.17% 1.38% 0.77% 0.84% 1.40% 0.83% 0.57%. 201706 1.33% 0.56% 0.93% -1.04% 0.19% 0.38% 0.76% 0.11% 2.44% -1.49% -0.16% 0.66% 0.25% 0.42% 0.47% 201707 1.30% 0.84% 0.53% -0.31% -0.16% 0.57% 2.60% 0.78% 0.66% 3.79% 0.82% -0.95% 1.37% 1.06% 0.72% 201708 0.11% 0.28% 1.09% 0.81% 1.32% 0.44% 3.43% 0.35% 0.61% 0.81% 0.63% -0.16% 0.67% 0.93% 0.71%. 4-16. HK. KO. MY. 2017/10/01. PH. SG. TW. TH. CH. India. 手. Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201708 0.11% 0.28% 1.09% 0.81% 1.32% 0.44% 3.43% 0.35% 0.61% 0.81% 0.63% -0.16% 0.67% 0.93% 0.71%. 政治大. 201709 1.33% -0.04% 0.67% -0.93% 0.83% 0.18% 1.21% 0.55% 3.20% 0.48% -0.13% 1.92% -0.52% 0.75% 0.61%. 201710 -0.01% -0.05% 0.27% -0.67% 0.55% 0.13% 0.61% 0.02% -0.77% -2.21% -0.43% -1.30% -0.99% -0.21% 0.01%. 立. 201711 0.67% 0.73% 0.39% -0.14% 0.14% 0.60% 1.27% 0.32% 0.12% -0.46% 0.03% 2.23% 0.65% 0.37% 0.36%. 2013/06/19. 手 3.77%. ‧. 6.71%. ‧ 國. 4-13. 學. 201712 2.20% 0.52% 0.57% 1.57% -0.69% 0.23% -0.25% 0.66% 1.07% 3.36% 0.24% -0.18% -0.09% 0.92% 0.61%. 2.52%. a2017/06/14 iv l C n hengchi U 2017/10/01. n 引. 。. sit. io 4-15 ~ 4-16. er. 引. y. Nat. 引. 分. 2.21%. 引. 1.04%. 手. （. 。. 了. 0.42%. 0.21%. 引. 方. 二反＊ QE3. 二反＊＝三. （. 。. QE1. 引. （. 引. 15. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(25) 4-17. HK. KO. MY. PH. QE1 SG. TW. 2008/11/25. TH. CH. India. 手 Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 200809 -21.8% -16.4% -11.1% -17.3% -22.8% -18.5% -24.4% -8.81% -23.4% -24.5% -25.1% -18.3% -20.6% -18.9% -20.2% 200810 -10.4% -11.3% -4.88% -10.4% -10.6% -10.7% -11.3% -5.29% -12.4% -13.0% -6.36% -6.89% -8.83% -10.0% -10.6%. 200811 7.25% 3.91% -2.60% -1.63% -0.92% -0.29% 0.60% 3.99% 2.14% 3.57% -0.12% -4.76% -0.69% 1.60% 1.37% 200812 -6.20% 2.98% 4.22% 1.24% 1.78% -1.73% 4.10% -0.63% -1.47% 4.95% -1.06% -0.52% -1.20% 0.93% 1.51% 200901 -3.58% -0.82% -0.23% -1.41% -5.80% 1.32% -1.77% 13.75% -1.20% -3.35% -8.27% -5.17% -6.96% -0.31% -1.31%. 4-18. HK. KO. MY. PH. QE1 SG. TW. 2009/03/18. TH. CH. India. 手 Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 200901 -6.20% 2.98% 4.22% 1.24% 1.78% -1.73% 4.10% -0.63% -1.47% 4.95% -1.06% -0.52% -1.20% 0.93% 1.51%. 政治大. 200902 -3.58% -0.82% -0.23% -1.41% -5.80% 1.32% -1.77% 13.75% -1.20% -3.35% -8.27% -5.17% -6.96% -0.31% -1.31%. 200903 -2.82% 0.06% -3.49% -0.22% -4.48% 10.03% -2.86% 1.05% -1.19% 1.98% 0.85% -8.58% -6.10% -0.19% -0.71%. 立. 200904 17.4% 15.9% 10.0% 8.90% 16.0% 16.2% 7.75% 10.4% 20.6% 16.5% 12.6% 12.1% 12.1% 14.0% 16.0%. KO. ‧ 國. HK. MY. 4-19. QE2. PH. SG. TW. 2010/11/03. TH. CH. India. 手. Indo. JP. ‧. 學. 200905 13.8% 5.81% 8.34% 10.7% 18.9% 15.1% 17.5% 6.19% 17.3% 17.5% 5.74% 8.49% 6.26% 13.1% 14.4%. EU. US. Mean Median. y. Nat. 201009 2.69% 3.17% 5.34% 11.81% 3.45% 2.06% 6.49% 0.07% 6.35% 7.80% 1.09% 2.70% 3.13% 4.92% 4.40%. sit. n. al. er. io. 201010 7.29% 3.94% 2.21% 7.02% 3.54% 2.03% 5.05% 8.96% 5.04% 8.54% 0.98% 0.67% 4.49% 5.36% 5.04%. 201011 2.36% 1.85% 1.15% -0.98% 1.47% 1.71% 3.33% 3.46% -0.72% 2.12% 3.39% 1.50% 2.33% 1.58% 1.78%. i n U. v. 201012 -3.18% 4.15% 0.27% -0.91% -1.26% 5.11% 1.17% -4.30% -1.35% -0.04% 4.85% 3.10% 3.61% -0.03% -0.48%. Ch. engchi. 201101 3.55% 4.34% 2.95% -1.97% 1.80% 2.30% -1.44% -2.72% -3.22% -3.44% 1.81% 1.84% 3.30% 0.21% 0.18%. 4-20. HK. KO. MY. PH. QE3 SG. TW. TH. 2012/09/13 CH. India. Indo. 手 JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201207 2.30% -1.06% 2.75% 3.35% 6.81% 0.62% 4.36% -4.94% 2.91% 5.04% 1.40% 5.44% 2.79% 2.21% 2.83% 201208 2.95% 5.14% 1.06% -0.42% 2.20% 3.01% 1.88% -2.51% 2.14% 1.93% 2.18% 4.62% 3.16% 1.74% 2.03%. 201209 1.41% 2.12% -0.89% 0.60% -0.36% 2.80% 3.69% -2.09% 3.07% 1.56% 0.10% 1.48% 2.72% 1.19% 1.49% 201210 5.17% -0.73% 1.92% 2.68% 0.42% -2.18% 2.58% 1.30% 3.51% 2.96% -1.45% -0.24% -0.42% 1.76% 2.25% 201211 1.78% -2.17% -1.90% 1.81% -1.72% -2.54% -0.50% -2.59% -0.16% 0.43% 2.77% -0.09% -2.87% -0.76% -1.11%. 16. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(26) 4-21. HK. KO. MY. QE3. PH. SG. TW. 2013/01/01. TH. CH. India. 手. Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201211 1.78% -2.17% -1.90% 1.81% -1.72% -2.54% -0.50% -2.59% -0.16% 0.43% 2.77% -0.09% -2.87% -0.76% -1.11% 201212 3.55% 3.76% 1.22% 4.82% 4.61% 5.28% 5.30% 4.01% 3.66% -0.88% 8.53% 3.06% 2.02% 3.53% 3.88%. 201301 4.53% 0.52% 0.93% 5.49% 2.73% 1.55% 5.29% 8.51% 2.27% 2.53% 8.72% 2.72% 3.92% 3.44% 2.63% 201302 -1.18% -0.41% -2.45% 7.64% 1.69% 2.09% 5.90% 3.81% -2.15% 4.28% 5.80% -0.09% 2.33% 1.92% 1.89% 201303 -2.81% 0.69% 1.27% 2.06% -0.05% -0.15% 2.55% -4.05% -2.08% 5.27% 8.19% 2.57% 2.58% 0.27% 0.32%. 4-17 ~ 4-21. QE1. 手. 1.60% QE1 14.0%. MY. 二反. QE1. 4-22. QE3. PH. SG. CH. India. QE2. QE3. 2013/06/19 TH. 引. Indo. 手 JP. EU. QE3 QE2. US. Mean Median. sit. TW. 1.58% QE3. 了. ‧. KO. 政治 QE2 大 3.44% QE1. Nat. HK. 引. 學. ＝. 立了. 1.19% QE3. ‧ 國. 了. ＊. y. ）. 13.1%. 201304 -1.91% -2.66% 3.27% 3.01% 0.93% -0.12% -1.32% -3.77% -1.06% 2.67% 8.15% -0.96% 1.22% -0.09% -0.59%. io. n. al. er. 201305 3.86% 1.84% 3.98% 4.80% 2.91% 4.64% 4.78% 2.30% 6.08% 2.84% 9.09% 4.46% 4.43% 3.80% 3.92%. 201306 -8.08% -4.37% -0.14% -11.12% -6.88% -3.26% -9.53% -5.65% -4.54% -7.05% -9.36% -4.86% -1.31% -6.06% -6.27%. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 201307 0.94% -0.87% 1.23% 2.57% 1.16% 1.34% -0.25% -5.59% 2.20% -2.30% 9.30% 2.10% 2.94% 0.04% 1.05% 201308 3.56% 1.41% -1.56% -3.33% -1.45% -2.15% -4.31% 2.99% -6.53% -4.67% -4.18% 2.62% 0.22% -1.60% -1.86%. 4-23. HK. KO. MY. PH. 2017/06/14 SG. TW. TH. CH. India. 手 Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201704 0.97% 1.22% 0.80% 4.30% 0.63% 0.06% 0.98% -0.82% 1.88% 3.02% -3.16% 1.57% -0.38% 1.30% 0.97% 201705 3.72% 6.06% 1.32% 2.90% 2.03% 1.99% -1.05% -3.60% 2.37% 0.78% 5.09% 2.78% 1.63% 1.65% 2.01%. 201706 2.63% 3.53% 0.64% 1.29% 0.15% 2.66% 0.96% 1.52% 1.85% 1.35% 1.81% -1.07% 1.58% 1.66% 1.44% 201707 1.93% 1.72% -1.16% 0.30% 1.42% 1.58% 0.07% 2.43% 2.55% 0.94% 0.01% -1.50% 0.78% 1.18% 1.50% 201708 4.56% -1.76% 0.68% 0.53% 0.35% 0.10% 0.16% 2.03% 0.45% 0.42% -1.87% -1.60% 0.14% 0.75% 0.44%. 17. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(27) 4-24. HK. KO. MY. PH. 2017/10/01 SG. TW. TH. CH. 手. India. Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201708 4.56% -1.76% 0.68% 0.53% 0.35% 0.10% 0.16% 2.03% 0.45% 0.42% -1.87% -1.60% 0.14% 0.75% 0.44% 201709 0.96% 0.06% 0.10% 1.93% -1.88% 0.67% 4.65% 2.30% 0.84% 0.35% 1.28% 1.18% 1.46% 1.00% 0.76%. 201710 2.03% 3.66% -1.32% 2.86% 2.71% 1.47% 3.20% 0.45% 1.46% 1.27% 6.61% 2.67% 2.61% 1.78% 1.75% 201711 3.03% 3.04% -1.20% 0.00% 2.77% 0.78% -0.05% 0.29% 1.99% 1.63% 6.05% -0.50% 1.44% 1.23% 1.20% 201712 -0.20% -2.65% 0.82% -0.23% 0.21% -2.25% 1.12% -2.79% 0.05% 1.40% 1.08% 0.07% 2.76% -0.45% -0.07%. 4-22 10 ＝. 2013/06/19. （ 6.06%. 六大. 11.12%. （. 立. 4-24. 手. 學. 引. 引. 8.08% 治政大. 9.53%. ‧ 國. 4-23. 六. 引. ‧. 1.78%. sit. y. Nat. io. ）. n. al. 小. Ch. QE3. QE1. engchi. （. i n U 文. （. 引. v. QE1. 引. 引手. ＊. ＝. er. 公. 引. 2017. ）. 1.66%. QE2. 又. ＊. 引（. 引支. 18. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(28) Tail Event Bowman, Londono and Sapriza (2015). Tail Event. 二反 DataStream. 十. ＝ QE2. 7. QE3. 20. 8 QE1. 分 0 / 0.21. 0. 0.21. 政治引大. QE. 引. 立 48. 大. 61 ＋川. 46. 5. 互. 三. 71. al. 8/. 90. / CE HYM 1. 2C D. 2C. n. . G . G. ,. . G. 少. y K. io. J. （. 4-25 ~ 4-32. Nat. T. 4-25 ~ 4-. ‧. ‧ 國. 1-1 ~ 2-4. 311. 小己. 學. 32. 手. sit. 。. ＝. ,. 4-25. Ch. engchi. er. 14. QE1. 二反. i n U. v. 37. 二反. /. 9. 手. ，. 。. 太十. ＝ QE1. 公小 QE1. ＋. 天 QE2. 引. 2008/11/25. 手. 分. 。 QE3. 。. 引 48. ＝手. 19. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(29) 48 ＋. ＝. ：. ＝. QE1 了. 分. QE1 。 QE. 不. 分 QE1. ）. 49 ＋. 手 K T J. 46. 5. 71. 8/. / CE HYM. 90. 1. 2C. 2C D. 37. /. 9. . G. ,. . G . G. 二反 6 方. 立。. 50 ＋. 71. 8/. / CE HYM. 90. al. 1. n. . G . G. QE1. . G. Ch. engchi. QE3. 小. y. K. sit. 5. QE1. 2C. 2C D. 37. /. i n U. v. QE2. 51 ＋. ：. ＝. 51 ＋. ＝ 2013/06/19. ：. 引互. 4-6 手. ＝ K. T J. 9. er. 46. 4-25. 文. 支. io. J. 引. QE2. Nat. T. 政治 QE2 手大. ‧. QE2. 己. 學. ‧ 國. （. 引. QE1. （. 46. 5. 71. K. / CE HYM. 90. 1. 2C. 2C D. 37. /. 9. . G . G . G. 20. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(30) 54 ＋ 4-7. 4-8. ）. （. K T. J. 14. . G. 46. 5. 71. ,. 8/. O. / CE HYM. 90. ,. 1. -1. 2C. 2C D. 37. /. 9. ,. . G . G. 4-29. 二反. QE1. 立. 引. 2-1. n. a l QE Ch. 。 2-1. 小. ＝. sit. （. 0.29 。. er. ＝. y. ：. io. 引. ‧. QE1. 2008/12/09. Nat. 方. 56 ＋. 2008/12/02. ‧ 國. 八. 55. 學. 三. 政治了大六. engchi. 2008/11/25. i n U. v. 互. QE. 手. 分. ＝. 2009/03/18. ：（ QE1. 手. 引. K T J. 14. 46. 5. 71. 8/. O. 90. / CE HYM 1. -1. 2C. 2C D. 37. /. 9. . G . G . G. 21. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(31) QE1. 二反 57 ＋. QE2 QE1. 手 QE2. QE1. J. 14. QE2. 引. K T. 46. 5. 手. 71. 8/. O. 90. 引＝. / CE HYM 1. -1. 2C. 2C D. 37. /. 9. . G . G . G. 二反 60 ＋. 立 QE1. 互. 天. ‧ 國. QE3. ＝. K. 71. . G. al. . G. 90. （. -1. 2C. engchi U. v ni. 2C D. 37. /. 引. 引. ）. 支. 。. 引 QE3. 手 QE1. ＝ QE1. QE3. QE1. QE1. ＝. 引. ＝. 9. ）。. （. / CE HYM 1. Ch. 4-24 引. O. y. 引. K. n. 5. . G. ：. sit. 。. io. 46. ‧. 引. Nat. 14. 2013/06/19. ：. ＝. T J. （. 學. 2012/09/13. QE1. er. 58. QE2. 政治大. 方. QE3. ＝. QE3. ＝. 引. QE2. 引 22. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(32) 4-33. 4-52. 三. 手. 4-33. KO. MY. QE1. PH. SG. TW. 2008/12 ~ 2010/03 TH. India. Indo. 手 JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 200812 2.93% 0.74% -0.19% -0.11% 1.38% 1.69% 0.08% 12.74% -8.84% -1.72% -0.17% 2.41% 1.06% 200901 2.35% 1.32% -1.69% 0.81% 1.97% 1.36% 0.50% 11.62% -9.81% 0.08% 1.01% 2.28% 1.34% 200902 8.89% 3.22% -0.78% 2.70% 4.81% 2.59% 1.40% 18.77% -7.22% 3.72% 4.13% 5.20% 2.96% 200903 9.88% 4.37% 0.81% 3.52% 5.03% 3.84% 5.42% 18.79% -2.22% 1.77% 3.97% 6.46% 4.70%. 政治大. 200904 1.01% 2.45% 0.27% 1.73% 3.00% 2.88% 3.03% 10.75% -1.17% 0.56% 2.58% 3.14% 2.67% 200905 -4.90% 0.04% -1.17% -1.19% 0.53% 0.57% -0.10% 4.12% -3.45% -2.83% -1.29% -0.26% -0.03%. 200906 -4.57% -0.11% -0.24% -1.72% 0.27% -0.92% -1.77% 2.27% -3.39% -5.29% -3.60% -0.85% -0.58%. 立. ‧ 國. 學. 200907 -4.59% 0.71% 0.18% -1.90% 0.66% -1.14% -0.39% 1.42% -5.64% -5.77% -4.30% -0.63% -0.10% 200908 -6.27% -0.12% 0.37% -2.41% 0.58% -1.23% -0.58% 0.11% -5.17% -6.98% -5.61% -1.20% -0.35%. ‧. 200909 -8.14% -0.80% 0.02% -3.72% -0.33% -1.83% -0.51% -1.07% -8.66% -8.89% -7.30% -2.05% -0.93% 200910 -11.2% -3.34% -2.47% -5.43% -1.15% -2.98% -3.92% -4.80% -9.76% -10.5% -8.54% -4.41% -3.63%. Nat. sit. y. 200911 -12.1% -3.76% -2.10% -6.03% -1.13% -3.37% -4.24% -5.09% -10.9% -11.1% -9.39% -4.72% -4.00%. io. er. 200912 -11.8% -3.09% -3.54% -5.50% -1.32% -3.52% -4.17% -5.08% -9.99% -8.94% -7.56% -4.75% -3.86% 201001 -13.8% -4.09% -4.17% -5.49% -2.48% -4.05% -5.51% -6.84% -8.83% -7.03% -6.39% -5.80% -4.83%. n. al. i n U. v. 201002 -12.6% -3.03% -3.73% -4.42% -1.92% -3.76% -4.72% -6.23% -9.91% -3.00% -3.55% -5.05% -4.09%. Ch. engchi. 201003 -14.0% -5.63% -4.91% -5.29% -2.60% -5.58% -6.43% -7.96% -9.31% -2.22% -2.93% -6.55% -5.61%. 4-34. KO. MY. PH. QE2 SG. TW. 2010/11 ~ 2011/06 TH. India. Indo. 手 JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201011 0.51% 0.48% 0.46% -0.30% -1.59% -0.29% 1.30% 0.15% 1.00% 1.93% 1.28% 0.09% 0.30% 201012 2.09% 0.84% 1.27% 0.22% -3.04% 0.50% 1.61% 1.06% 1.85% 5.19% 3.37% 0.57% 0.95%. 201101 -0.25% -1.28% 1.91% -1.24% -5.55% 2.02% 2.27% 1.19% 1.10% 4.01% 2.21% -0.12% 0.47% 201102 -0.28% -1.73% 0.67% -2.06% -4.95% 2.50% 2.30% -0.12% 1.04% 1.81% 0.41% -0.46% -0.20% 201103 -0.13% -2.07% 0.28% -2.67% -4.23% 1.34% 1.25% -1.88% -0.10% -0.85% -1.48% -1.01% -1.01% 201104 -3.33% -2.87% -0.43% -4.32% -5.91% 0.33% -0.06% -3.15% 1.73% -3.86% -3.57% -2.47% -3.01% 201105 -3.45% -2.75% -0.53% -4.94% -6.76% 0.88% 1.16% -4.14% -0.77% -2.99% -3.23% -2.57% -3.10% 201106 -3.69% -2.32% 0.01% -5.28% -6.49% 1.88% 0.96% -4.06% -1.60% -3.46% -3.56% -2.37% -3.00%. 23. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(33) 4-35. KO. MY. QE3. PH. SG. TW. 2012/09 ~ 2014/10 TH. India. Indo. 手 JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201209 -0.73% -1.20% -0.81% -1.35% -1.34% -1.41% -1.88% 0.65% -0.69% -3.60% -2.78% -1.01% -1.27% 201210 -2.29% -2.01% -1.63% -1.93% -2.35% -2.37% -4.42% 1.06% 0.39% -4.39% -2.96% -1.99% -2.15%. 201211 -3.96% -1.90% -2.37% -1.98% -2.81% -2.29% -1.26% 1.32% 2.99% -3.32% -1.81% -1.91% -2.14% 201212 -4.95% -1.97% -2.55% -2.23% -3.07% -2.52% -1.60% 1.51% 6.52% -5.47% -2.93% -2.17% -2.38% 201301 -5.77% -2.45% -3.25% -1.61% -2.95% -4.32% -2.30% 1.75% 13.04% -6.69% -2.78% -2.61% -2.70% 201302 -4.02% -0.62% -3.39% -0.78% -1.20% -5.12% -3.09% 1.99% 18.30% -7.07% -1.90% -2.03% -2.15% 201303 -2.57% -0.27% -3.23% -0.13% -0.76% -6.10% -2.04% 2.28% 20.41% -4.24% 0.58% -1.60% -1.40% 201304 -0.96% -2.17% -2.21% -0.82% -0.47% -7.45% -2.12% 2.43% 24.22% -4.77% 0.43% -1.72% -1.54%. 政治大. 201305 -1.78% -3.09% -1.78% 0.10% -0.71% -5.31% -1.02% 2.78% 28.26% -4.43% 1.27% -1.35% -1.40% 201306 0.30% 0.89% 2.11% 0.94% -0.12% -1.94% 5.09% 3.99% 23.71% -5.90% -0.36% 1.41% 0.92%. 立. 201307 -0.52% 2.41% 3.04% 1.63% -0.05% -0.95% 7.65% 6.10% 26.69% -5.15% 0.78% 2.41% 2.02%. ‧ 國. 學. 201308 -1.39% 5.18% 4.31% 1.94% -0.05% 0.57% 13.25% 10.96% 24.26% -6.83% -0.81% 4.35% 3.13% 201309 -4.17% 4.35% 3.96% 1.20% -1.02% 0.87% 14.89% 19.26% 26.10% -7.08% -1.15% 4.92% 2.58%. ‧. 201310 -5.78% 1.89% 2.48% -0.39% -1.89% -0.71% 10.95% 19.53% 24.27% -9.07% -2.78% 3.26% 0.75% 201311 -6.12% 2.65% 3.49% -0.01% -1.52% 0.70% 12.71% 22.31% 27.30% -8.04% -1.66% 4.28% 1.68%. sit. y. Nat. 201312 -6.70% 4.33% 4.95% 0.90% -0.79% 3.08% 11.38% 27.32% 31.55% -9.48% -2.21% 5.56% 3.70% 201401 -5.85% 5.99% 6.83% 1.95% 0.48% 4.79% 11.77% 28.08% 31.97% -8.94% -1.65% 6.75% 5.39%. io. n. al. er. 201402 -5.39% 6.13% 6.53% 1.41% 1.10% 3.84% 12.02% 25.56% 29.72% -9.23% -2.09% 6.40% 4.98%. i n U. v. 201403 -5.42% 5.29% 6.40% 1.52% 1.40% 3.04% 9.70% 20.27% 30.07% -10.30% -2.80% 5.28% 4.17%. Ch. engchi. 201404 -7.88% 4.43% 5.97% 0.54% 0.79% 2.83% 8.62% 20.42% 30.24% -10.18% -2.80% 4.47% 3.63% 201405 -9.45% 3.63% 4.29% 0.26% 0.50% 3.49% 6.86% 21.52% 29.34% -9.68% -2.68% 3.89% 3.56% 201406 -9.98% 3.27% 4.08% 0.25% 0.05% 3.45% 7.54% 25.28% 29.71% -8.76% -2.12% 4.24% 3.36% 201407 -9.84% 2.10% 3.23% -0.41% -0.09% 2.16% 8.13% 22.84% 29.34% -8.35% -1.99% 3.52% 2.13% 201408 -9.50% 1.92% 4.01% 0.01% 0.02% 1.88% 9.56% 23.25% 30.83% -6.85% -0.36% 3.90% 1.90% 201409 -8.64% 3.21% 4.87% 1.20% 0.45% 2.44% 9.57% 25.34% 36.33% -3.84% 2.69% 4.80% 2.82% 201410 -6.22% 4.87% 6.42% 2.13% 1.43% 3.30% 10.50% 27.91% 37.31% -2.12% 4.25% 6.29% 4.09%. 24. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(34) 4-36. KO. MY. 2017/10 ~ 2018/04. PH. SG. TW. TH. 手. India Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201710 0.08% 0.38% 0.81% 0.72% 0.46% 0.27% 0.94% 1.66% 1.95% 1.33% 1.49% 0.66% 0.59% 201711 -2.66% -1.08% -0.07% 0.40% -0.09% -0.72% 0.63% 1.67% 1.85% 1.46% 1.77% -0.24% -0.08%. 201712 -4.24% -3.22% -1.22% -0.27% -0.53% -1.51% -0.33% 1.90% 2.05% 0.69% 1.15% -1.18% -0.87% 201801 -5.85% -6.08% -0.86% -2.07% -2.33% -3.67% -1.27% 0.61% 0.14% -2.33% -1.63% -2.69% -2.20% 201802 -4.64% -7.18% 1.65% -2.24% -2.78% -5.04% -0.09% 2.22% -2.59% -3.48% -2.84% -2.26% -2.51% 201803 -5.39% -7.37% 2.16% -2.59% -3.06% -5.67% 0.95% 3.41% -4.22% -3.39% -2.67% -2.19% -2.83% 201804 -5.72% -7.74% 2.15% -2.53% -2.58% -5.57% 1.91% 3.78% -2.77% -2.92% -2.21% -2.04% -2.55%. 4-33 ~ 4-36. QE1 QE2 QE3. QE1. 立. 。 2009/05. 0.26%. 方. y. 2010/03. 分. ：. n. al. 2.37%. sit. io. 4-34. 了. Ch QE1. i n U. QE2. engchi 6.55%. 公. er. 引. 一. Nat. 6.55%. 。. ‧. 引. 治政大引公。學. ‧ 國. 2009/03. 手. v. ）. 引. QE1. 201010 ~ 201106. （ QE2. 引 4-35. 方 QE3. QE3. 2013/05. 1.35% 2013/06. 引：. 。. 分引. 2013/06 ＝ QE3. QE1. 上中. 方分 QE1 QE2. 公. 25. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(35) 支. 分. QE. 。. 不. ＝ QE3. ）. QE3 4-36. 。. 引. QE3 QE. 分. 0.66% 分. ：。引. 4-37 HK. KO. 200901 17.3% -5.0%. -8.7% -8.9%. 立. CH. India. 手. SG. TW. TH. Indo. JP. EU. US. 4.4%. 4.1%. 4.9%. 7.6%. 3.5% -0.6% 2.1% 5.4% -1.5% 11.3%. 9.2%. 5.0%. 5.2%. 7.3%. 1.8% -2.6% 0.6% 3.4% -6.5% 8.0%. Mean Median 3.0%. 3.8%. 3.0%. 3.4%. 5.1%. 5.8%. 1.7%. 0.8%. 0.0% 3.2% -8.8% 4.9%. 3.2%. 3.4%. 200903 20.3% -2.8% -12.4% 8.6%. 5.2%. 7.9% 12.6% 3.9%. 2.3%. 8.4% 4.2% -6.9% 7.4%. 5.4%. 6.6%. 4.5%. 9.5% 13.2% 6.9%. 0.9% 11.8% 3.5% -7.4% 7.7%. 6.9%. 8.1%. Nat. 8.3%. sit. 200904 24.9% 0.1% -12.5% 9.4%. 9.8%. y. -9.1%. 2008/12 ~ 2010/03. ‧. 200902 14.4% -5.0%. PH. QE1. 學. 200812 17.9% -5.2%. MY. ‧ 國. 政治大. 9.8%. 4.3% 14.2% 17.1% 13.4% 1.2% 13.8% 4.2% -3.4% 17.1% 10.8% 11.6%. al. n. -8.7%. io. 200906 33.7% 9.2%. er. 200905 32.5% 6.8% -11.9% 10.1% 3.2% 12.4% 17.8% 11.2% -1.1% 14.5% 4.7% -3.7% 17.2% 9.6% 10.6%. Ch. i n U. v. 200907 40.8% 11.9% -9.0% 11.7% 4.1% 15.4% 19.6% 15.7% 4.4% 13.5% 4.6% -0.8% 18.9% 12.8% 12.7%. engchi. 200908 44.2% 15.6% -6.9% 15.4% 5.6% 17.0% 23.4% 17.6% 6.2% 14.6% 6.6% 25.6% 81.8% 15.3% 15.5% 200909 46.5% 19.8% -4.3% 18.3% 6.5% 19.4% 27.7% 20.9% 5.7% 23.1% 7.7% 28.5% 92.5% 18.4% 19.6% 200910 55.0% 24.5% -4.2% 20.1% 7.3% 22.7% 31.1% 23.9% 4.2% 27.6% 8.1% 29.3% 93.1% 21.2% 23.3% 200911 65.5% 27.6% -4.1% 22.9% 8.7% 24.8% 35.5% 27.1% 1.8% 30.2% 9.8% 29.7% 93.5% 24.0% 26.0% 200912 65.2% 27.2% -3.5% 23.1% 9.7% 25.2% 34.2% 27.6% 0.4% 30.7% 7.3% 27.4% 87.4% 24.0% 26.2% 201001 66.0% 28.9% -3.2% 26.8% 10.8% 26.1% 38.0% 28.5% -1.1% 37.5% 7.7% 26.3% 86.3% 25.8% 27.7% 201002 66.8% 27.5% -3.4% 27.3% 9.9% 26.8% 37.4% 29.0% -2.3% 37.9% 7.5% 27.8% 85.3% 25.7% 27.4% 201003 67.1% 28.3% -4.9% 26.8% 14.6% 27.6% 39.7% 30.2% -4.3% 42.0% 6.6% 28.4% 82.8% 26.7% 28.0%. 4-37 ~ 4-40. 二反. 手. 二反＊一. 了. 。. 五. 26. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(36) 2008/10. 了. 5.4%. 六. 手. 3%. 了. 200810 ~ 201003. 26.71%. 了. 反＊. 一. 4-38. （. HK. KO. MY. QE2. PH. SG. TW. 了. 2010/11 ~ 2011/06. TH. CH. 二. 手. India Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201011 -0.38% -1.06% 0.45% 5.97% 0.47% -1.19% -1.81% 0.25% 0.37% 1.05% -1.53% -1.94% -3.77% 0.41% 0.31% 201012 0.63% -0.61% 1.12% 9.13% 0.92% -0.48% 0.62% 3.13% 0.13% 4.80% -1.96% -0.74% -2.19% 1.94% 0.77%. 201101 2.29% 0.89% 2.66% 11.18% 1.44% 0.85% 1.71% 6.19% 2.77% 3.85% -2.25% 2.28% -1.07% 3.38% 2.47%. 政治大. 201102 2.11% 1.47% 4.23% 11.79% 2.43% 1.79% 4.91% 8.35% 2.74% 8.52% -2.38% 2.30% -0.54% 4.83% 3.49%. 立. 201103 2.08% 1.80% 8.09% 15.45% 3.11% 2.29% 6.15% 10.28% 1.96% 15.15% -0.19% 5.79% 2.90% 6.64% 4.63%. ‧ 國. 學. 201104 3.69% 4.72% 23.42% 19.83% 3.54% 4.09% 11.00% 13.94% 4.43% 23.98% 1.56% 2.33% 5.61% 11.27% 7.86% 201105 3.30% 4.00% 26.05% 20.47% 3.45% 3.87% 8.42% 14.67% 5.12% 28.66% 1.91% 5.62% 8.53% 11.80% 6.77% 201106 3.80% 3.80% 27.54% 20.72% 3.88% 4.30% 8.09% 15.81% 3.90% 30.34% 1.76% 4.84% 9.06% 12.22% 6.19%. al. QE1. QE1. Ch. y. 26.71%. 了. QE1. n. QE1. 了. io. 12.22% QE2. 2010/03. i eQE2 n g c hQE1. 。. i引v n U. 了. 2011/06. sit. 手. Nat. QE1. QE2. er. （. ‧. 4-38. 了（. QE2 公. 五. 27. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(37) 4-39. HK. KO. MY. QE3. PH. SG. TW. 2012/09 ~ 2014/10. TH. CH. India. 手 Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201209 1.02% 1.62% 1.85% 1.61% 0.67% 0.95% 2.45% 0.37% -4.57% 1.08% 0.30% 0.45% 1.04% 0.71% 1.05% 201210 1.19% 2.08% 2.49% 1.26% 1.01% 1.27% 1.23% 0.44% -2.69% 1.20% 0.07% 0.84% 0.48% 0.95% 1.21%. 201211 2.35% 2.91% 3.05% 3.97% 1.65% 1.71% 1.34% 0.76% -1.23% 2.11% -0.19% 0.91% -0.15% 1.86% 1.91% 201212 6.42% 3.18% 3.54% 3.84% 3.15% 2.27% 1.33% 1.18% 0.11% 3.48% -0.40% 0.38% -0.88% 2.85% 3.17% 201301 2.18% 3.80% 3.86% 5.63% 4.37% 3.13% 1.39% 4.19% -1.82% -0.19% -0.47% 1.98% 0.26% 2.65% 3.46% 201302 2.21% 3.32% 3.97% 3.59% 4.45% 2.50% 0.02% 3.74% -2.09% -3.49% -1.13% -0.03% -1.76% 1.82% 2.91% 201303 1.88% 3.32% 3.48% 3.99% 4.28% 1.94% -0.80% 5.19% -1.59% -3.84% -1.48% -1.37% -3.41% 1.79% 2.63% 201304 2.79% 3.76% 3.97% 3.08% 4.95% 2.78% -0.48% 7.99% -0.14% -1.58% -1.20% -1.22% -3.11% 2.71% 2.93% 201305 2.52% 3.54% 4.80% 1.53% 6.44% 3.14% -2.21% 7.39% 1.74% -3.52% -1.81% -2.00% -4.92% 2.54% 2.83%. 政治大. 201306 1.81% 3.02% 0.85% 0.65% 7.35% 3.14% -4.68% 6.84% 6.17% -10.00% -2.71% -1.94% -3.83% 1.51% 2.41% 201307 0.57% 4.05% 2.14% 3.03% 8.32% 3.78% -3.89% 8.40% 5.97% -14.97% -1.51% -1.62% -2.69% 1.74% 3.40%. 立. 201308 1.92% 4.48% -0.13% 2.68% 8.91% 3.85% -5.84% 8.56% 14.74% -14.67% -1.50% -1.04% -3.79% 2.45% 3.26%. ‧ 國. 學. 201309 1.78% 6.32% 1.16% 3.44% 9.54% 4.66% -3.85% 11.91% 6.76% -12.22% 0.02% 0.38% -2.48% 2.95% 4.05% 201310 3.82% 8.31% 1.56% 3.57% 9.74% 5.42% -3.96% 14.17% 9.26% -11.01% 0.28% 0.25% -2.91% 4.09% 4.62%. ‧. 201311 3.51% 8.88% 1.00% 3.52% 11.01% 5.41% -6.54% 15.78% 14.64% -11.04% 0.17% -0.43% -4.22% 4.62% 4.47% 201312 4.36% 9.33% -0.03% 3.05% 12.26% 5.73% -6.66% 16.76% 16.14% -8.81% -0.50% -0.09% -4.57% 5.21% 5.04%. y. Nat. sit. 201401 4.71% 9.94% -1.34% -1.70% 13.05% 5.76% -6.96% 18.14% 13.66% -7.65% 0.30% 1.91% -4.68% 4.76% 5.23%. io. al. er. 201402 5.95% 11.02% -3.22% -0.23% 13.03% 6.02% -6.19% 19.58% 15.41% -5.73% 1.18% 2.35% -4.16% 5.56% 5.99%. n. 201403 6.26% 11.82% -3.53% -1.34% 11.78% 6.33% -6.54% 20.63% 15.73% -5.87% 0.48% 2.26% -4.76% 5.53% 6.30%. Ch. i n U. v. 201404 6.55% 12.29% -2.80% -1.09% 12.52% 6.92% -5.74% 21.57% 20.08% -3.14% 0.75% 2.58% -4.77% 6.71% 6.74%. engchi. 201405 7.39% 13.89% -2.97% -0.60% 12.73% 6.96% -6.49% 21.72% 17.33% -1.78% 0.84% 2.75% -4.57% 6.82% 7.17% 201406 7.63% 15.67% -2.29% 0.01% 12.84% 7.41% -6.15% 22.01% 20.91% -1.20% 0.84% 2.71% -4.17% 7.68% 7.52% 201407 9.00% 16.14% -2.32% -0.10% 11.20% 7.47% -5.47% 21.19% 23.61% 1.42% 0.22% 1.79% -5.67% 8.21% 8.24% 201408 11.11% 15.98% -2.15% 0.18% 11.06% 7.32% -6.53% 21.26% 23.20% 2.05% 0.37% 1.96% -6.72% 8.35% 9.19% 201409 9.25% 15.00% -5.69% -1.45% 10.56% 6.71% -9.85% 18.78% 22.69% 1.99% -0.69% -0.56% -9.54% 6.80% 7.98% 201410 9.16% 14.78% -5.06% -1.63% 10.68% 6.91% -10.39% 17.72% 24.44% 2.74% -0.57% -0.35% -10.04% 6.93% 8.03%. 4-39 二反＊＝. 了引. 2.54%. QE1 > QE2 > QE3 QE3 支. 上中. 28. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(38) 一. 4-40. HK. KO. MY. 2017/10 ~ 2018/04. PH. SG. TW. TH. CH. India. 手 Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201710 -0.01% -0.05% 0.27% -0.67% 0.55% 0.13% 0.61% 0.02% -0.77% -2.21% -0.43% -1.30% -0.99% -0.21% 0.01% 201711 0.66% 0.67% 0.66% -0.81% 0.70% 0.73% 1.89% 0.35% -0.65% -2.65% -0.40% 0.90% -0.35% 0.15% 0.66%. 201712 2.88% 1.19% 1.23% 0.75% 0.00% 0.96% 1.63% 1.01% 0.41% 0.61% -0.16% 0.72% -0.44% 1.07% 0.98% 201801 5.29% 2.88% 2.41% 0.32% -1.18% 1.90% 7.71% 1.70% 3.70% 1.99% 0.18% 2.66% 1.90% 2.67% 2.20% 201802 5.75% 2.63% 2.46% -0.66% 0.04% 2.12% 6.74% 0.84% 4.55% -1.04% -0.36% 2.15% 1.50% 2.34% 2.29% 201803 5.01% 3.14% 6.54% -0.56% 0.68% 2.23% 8.18% 1.10% 5.88% -2.63% 0.16% 5.55% 2.14% 2.96% 2.68%. 政治大. 201804 3.60% 3.57% 8.20% -1.67% 1.87% 2.22% 7.95% 0.53% 7.64% -3.51% -0.81% 3.36%. 立. NA. y. QE1. ＊. n. aQE1 l C h. sit. 引. 引. er. io. QE3. 天. ‧. Nat 二反. ＝. 學. 六. 2018/04. ‧ 國. 4-40. NA 3.04% 2.89%. engchi. i n U. QE2 QE3 引. v. 引. 29. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(39) 4-41. HK. KO. MY. QE1. PH. SG. TW. 2008/12 ~ 2010/03 TH. CH. India. 手 Indo. JP. EU. US. 200812 -3.9% -7.9% -7.4% -11.8% -11.4% -10.9% -10.7% -1.5% -10.6% -9.9% -6.5% -11.3% -9.5%. Mean Median -8.6% -10.2%. 200901 -9.8% -5.1% -3.4% -10.7% -9.8% -12.4% -7.1% -2.1% -11.9% -5.4% -7.5% -11.8% -10.6% -7.8% -8.5% 200902 -13.0% -5.9% -3.7% -12.0% -15.1% -11.3% -8.7% 11.3% -12.9% -8.6% -15.1% -16.3% -16.8% -8.0% -10.0% 200903 -15.5% -5.8% -7.0% -12.2% -18.9% -2.4% -11.3% 12.5% -14.0% -6.8% -14.4% -23.5% -21.8% -8.1% -9.2% 200904 -0.8% 9.2%. 2.2% -4.4% -5.9% 13.4% -4.5% 24.2% 3.7%. 8.6% -3.6% -14.3% -12.4% 4.6%. 3.0%. 200905 12.8% 15.5% 10.8% 5.9% 11.9% 30.5% 12.2% 31.9% 21.7% 27.6% 2.0% -7.0% -6.9% 18.1% 14.2% 200906 21.1% 15.2% 15.3% 15.5% 18.6% 28.4% 24.1% 42.9% 37.2% 40.7% 8.0% -6.1% -4.4% 25.9% 22.6% 200907 24.7% 20.5% 20.0% 19.7% 23.4% 35.4% 24.4% 62.1% 34.3% 47.7% 6.6% -5.3% -3.6% 31.2% 24.5%. 200908 35.2% 30.3% 26.7% 31.6% 32.4% 35.9% 34.8% 55.3% 41.4% 63.5% 14.9% 3.9% 4.2% 38.7% 35.0%. 政治大. 200909 38.2% 37.0% 29.7% 30.9% 35.1% 45.1% 46.1% 45.9% 50.6% 66.8% 13.6% 8.1%. 7.7%. 42.5% 41.6%. 200910 43.1% 34.7% 33.8% 35.4% 36.1% 50.4% 50.5% 48.7% 54.7% 71.0% 10.8% 9.2% 10.2% 45.8% 45.9%. 立. 200911 46.8% 30.7% 36.6% 40.1% 39.0% 50.8% 44.8% 61.9% 52.8% 68.0% 6.2%. 9.9% 12.4% 47.2% 45.8%. ‧ 國. 學. 200912 43.6% 36.2% 36.5% 41.4% 43.7% 55.3% 49.1% 62.6% 57.9% 72.9% 12.3% 11.9% 14.7% 49.9% 46.4% 201001 41.5% 38.9% 39.0% 41.6% 46.1% 60.6% 51.8% 60.0% 59.3% 81.4% 17.4% 14.6% 16.0% 52.0% 48.9%. ‧. 201002 33.7% 32.0% 35.6% 36.7% 40.2% 47.5% 46.0% 51.2% 49.8% 76.7% 11.9% 10.2% 12.4% 44.9% 43.1% 201003 39.3% 37.3% 40.8% 44.7% 46.2% 54.1% 56.9% 54.3% 59.9% 86.6% 17.6% 16.5% 18.9% 52.0% 50.1%. KO. MY. PH. SG. TH. CH. India. n. al. TW. 2010/11 ~ 2011/06. 手 Indo. er. HK. io. QE2. sit. y. Nat. 4-42. JP. i n U. v. EU. US. Mean Median. 201011 2.36% 1.85% 1.15% -0.98% 1.47% 1.71% 3.33% 3.46% -0.72% 2.12% 3.39% 1.50% 2.33% 1.58% 1.78%. Ch. engchi. 201012 -0.90% 6.08% 1.42% -1.88% 0.20% 6.91% 4.54% -0.99% -2.06% 2.07% 8.41% 4.65% 6.03% 1.54% 0.81%. 201101 2.62% 10.68% 4.41% -3.82% 2.00% 9.37% 3.03% -3.68% -5.22% -1.43% 10.38% 6.58% 9.52% 1.80% 2.31% 201102 0.05% 6.54% 1.83% -9.67% -1.99% 7.63% -0.47% -0.71% -11.40% -4.04% 12.26% 8.49% 12.86% -1.22% -0.59% 201103 -0.63% 5.83% 1.56% -7.98% -4.12% 4.45% 3.37% 2.35% -9.16% -1.02% 3.84% 4.29% 11.34% -0.53% 0.47% 201104 3.32% 13.94% 3.33% 0.56% -0.08% 7.75% 10.81% 4.14% -4.17% 4.37% 2.04% 5.79% 13.67% 4.40% 3.73% 201105 -0.38% 12.47% 3.21% 1.26% -0.85% 8.59% 9.30% -1.51% -9.91% 6.20% 2.51% 5.77% 14.20% 2.84% 2.23% 201106 -3.81% 9.88% 4.86% 0.31% -2.82% 6.73% 4.63% -5.73% -10.23% 5.93% 0.85% 1.86% 9.88% 0.97% 2.47%. 30. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(40) 4-43. HK. KO. MY. QE3. PH. SG. TW. 2012/09 ~ 2014/10 TH. CH. India. 手 Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201209 1.41% 2.12% -0.89% 0.60% -0.36% 2.80% 3.69% -2.09% 3.07% 1.56% 0.10% 1.48% 2.72%. 1.19% 1.49%. 201210 6.64% 1.37% 1.01% 3.30% 0.06% 0.56% 6.36% -0.81% 6.69% 4.57% -1.35% 1.23% 2.29%. 2.97% 2.33%. 201211 8.54% -0.83% -0.90% 5.17% -1.66% -2.00% 5.83% -3.38% 6.52% 5.02% 1.38% 1.13% -0.65% 2.23% 2.09% 201212 12.40% 2.90% 0.31% 10.24% 2.88% 3.17% 11.44% 0.49% 10.42% 4.09% 10.04% 4.23% 1.36%. 5.83% 3.63%. 201301 17.49% 3.44% 1.24% 16.29% 5.68% 4.77% 17.34% 9.05% 12.93% 6.73% 19.63% 7.06% 5.33%. 9.50% 7.89%. 201302 16.10% 3.01% -1.24% 25.17% 7.47% 6.97% 24.26% 13.20% 10.50% 11.30% 26.56% 6.97% 7.78% 11.67% 10.90% 201303 12.84% 3.72% 0.01% 27.75% 7.42% 6.80% 27.44% 8.61% 8.20% 17.16% 36.93% 9.71% 10.56% 11.99% 8.41% 201304 10.69% 0.95% 3.28% 31.60% 8.41% 6.68% 25.76% 4.52% 7.05% 20.29% 48.09% 8.65% 11.92% 11.92% 7.73% 201305 14.96% 2.81% 7.39% 37.91% 11.57% 11.63% 31.77% 6.93% 13.56% 23.70% 61.56% 13.50% 16.87% 16.22% 12.60%. 政治大. 201306 5.68% -1.69% 7.24% 22.58% 3.89% 7.99% 19.22% 0.88% 8.41% 14.99% 46.44% 7.99% 15.34% 8.92% 7.62% 201307 6.67% -2.54% 8.56% 25.73% 5.10% 9.43% 18.92% -4.76% 10.79% 12.34% 60.07% 10.26% 18.73% 9.02% 9.00%. 立. 201308 10.47% -1.17% 6.87% 21.54% 3.58% 7.08% 13.79% -1.91% 3.56% 7.09% 53.37% 13.15% 19.00% 7.09% 6.97%. ‧ 國. 學. 201309 15.11% 3.48% 7.20% 19.23% 2.98% 10.72% 14.64% 3.39% 8.59% 5.60% 60.80% 15.54% 20.03% 9.09% 7.90% 201310 15.79% 5.55% 9.02% 24.13% 4.21% 12.99% 18.49% 3.30% 13.83% 9.11% 60.14% 17.45% 22.56% 11.64% 11.05%. ‧. 201311 16.84% 4.65% 9.42% 20.14% 4.39% 11.25% 14.44% 2.25% 14.72% 5.82% 66.45% 20.39% 27.16% 10.39% 10.34% 201312 17.08% 3.61% 11.88% 13.38% 1.95% 13.88% 10.06% 2.32% 17.14% 2.42% 75.35% 18.87% 28.89% 9.37% 10.97%. y. Nat. sit. 201401 13.91% 1.55% 10.54% 14.82% 2.00% 15.49% 4.45% -3.53% 16.68% 5.63% 75.26% 22.72% 29.98% 8.15% 8.08%. io. al. er. 201402 11.20% 0.89% 10.56% 17.82% -0.11% 14.81% 6.89% -1.63% 14.48% 9.52% 63.38% 23.35% 29.55% 8.44% 10.04%. n. 201403 10.20% 1.66% 11.15% 22.78% 1.94% 17.34% 11.36% -3.67% 22.03% 14.58% 63.94% 23.07% 32.78% 10.94% 11.25%. Ch. i n U. v. 201404 13.37% 3.68% 12.91% 27.07% 5.91% 20.21% 14.71% -1.92% 26.71% 18.18% 61.64% 24.58% 32.84% 14.08% 14.04%. engchi. 201405 12.99% 3.59% 13.76% 29.86% 6.80% 20.61% 14.59% -4.01% 32.48% 19.50% 60.38% 26.85% 34.69% 15.02% 14.17% 201406 16.02% 3.91% 14.10% 29.63% 7.44% 24.56% 19.81% -3.38% 41.42% 18.81% 69.07% 28.86% 38.74% 17.23% 17.41% 201407 19.00% 5.28% 14.38% 31.61% 8.34% 27.98% 24.41% -1.33% 43.99% 22.30% 71.76% 27.32% 40.63% 19.60% 20.65% 201408 24.40% 7.31% 13.40% 34.47% 8.69% 25.16% 26.11% 4.92% 46.16% 24.69% 71.61% 24.50% 39.77% 21.53% 24.54% 201409 22.23% 6.41% 12.77% 38.38% 8.54% 24.77% 29.58% 9.61% 51.00% 25.67% 78.33% 28.43% 42.06% 22.90% 23.50% 201410 16.66% 1.28% 10.51% 36.22% 5.50% 19.21% 26.86% 11.46% 49.07% 21.69% 71.96% 21.65% 38.04% 19.85% 17.93%. 31. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(41) 4-44. HK. KO. MY. 2017/10 ~ 2018/04. PH. SG. TW. TH. CH. India. 手 Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201710 2.03% 3.66% -1.32% 2.86% 2.71% 1.47% 3.20% 0.45% 1.46% 1.27% 6.61% 2.67% 2.61% 1.78% 1.75% 201711 5.12% 6.82% -2.51% 2.86% 5.56% 2.26% 3.15% 0.74% 3.48% 2.91% 13.06% 2.16% 4.08% 3.04% 3.03%. 201712 4.91% 3.99% -1.71% 2.63% 5.78% -0.05% 4.30% -2.07% 3.53% 4.35% 14.29% 2.23% 6.95% 2.57% 3.76% 201801 14.24% 6.19% 3.05% 8.82% 9.27% 4.60% 9.56% 2.60% 8.08% 10.11% 18.40% 4.42% 11.74% 7.65% 8.45% 201802 11.49% 2.76% 4.11% 5.77% 7.39% 1.21% 9.36% -2.71% 5.57% 12.25% 10.23% -0.42% 8.61% 5.72% 5.67% 201803 11.05% 3.31% 4.55% 1.01% 7.74% 3.78% 8.89% -3.43% 2.55% 8.19% 7.38% -2.12% 8.34% 4.76% 4.16% 201804 9.11% 3.64% 4.99% -3.58% 8.57% 2.79% 7.09% -7.14% 4.96% 5.94% 9.91% -0.54% 6.48% 3.64% 4.98%. 4-41~ 4-44 2009/04. 治QE1 政大 2008/10 立 QE1 4.6%. （. 2008/10. io. er. n. al. QE1. y. Nat. 2008. Ch. 2013/05 QE1. engchi. 引. QE3. i n U. v. 2013/06. 二反＊. QE2 方. 公. 六. （. 8.92%. 天. 引. 16.22%. QE1 > QE2 > QE3. 引. 引. ＝. ‧. 0.97%. 二反. QE2. QE3. 2009/08. 六. 2010/10 ~ 2011/06. （. 2010/03. 學. ‧ 國. 52%. 手. sit. 8.1%手. 2009/03. 手. 。. 公。. 引公引. 天. 六. 。 32. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(42) 。引. 天. 4-45. HK. KO. MY. 三. QE1. 2008/12 ~ 2010/04. PH. SG. TW. TH. CH. 200812 10.76 -3.64 -3.62. 1.73. 3.35. 2.04. 2.26. 1.56. 200901 9.92. 4.30. 3.36. 1.79. 2.35. 1.19. -3.31 -4.40. India. 手 Indo. JP. EU. US. -0.27 -2.85. 6.15. -0.11. 5.20. -1.28 -3.05. 5.66. -3.42. 3.15. Mean Median 1.13. 1.65. 1.09. 1.49. -5.80 -6.72. 3.46. 1.90. -0.11. 2.70. 1.07. -0.71 -5.19. 4.49. -6.01. 0.28. -0.09. 0.48. 200903 11.51 -5.09 -9.10. 2.68. 1.36. 1.10. 3.16. 2.51. -2.83 -2.54. 2.80. -4.23. 1.48. 0.28. 1.23. 200904 14.17 -0.31 -6.80. 3.29. 2.26. 3.87. 4.04. 4.61. -1.71. 0.81. 2.04. -4.08. 2.25. 2.42. 2.77. 200905 17.59 5.00. -3.81. 4.41. 3.55. 7.75. 7.46. 7.68. -0.32. 3.51. 3.57. -0.81. 7.90 5.28. 4.70. 200906 18.34 6.01. -2.62. 3.79. 4.85. 9.15. 8.11. 8.77. 1.61. 3.80. 3.33. 0.31. 8.99 6.18. 5.43. 200907 21.68 7.33. -3.69. 4.26. 4.92. 9.72. 9.41. 10.37 1.88. 3.94. 4.44. 1.84 10.11 6.98. 6.12. 200908 23.35 9.72. -2.06. 5.52. 立. 6.52 10.87 11.15 11.64 2.68. 4.66. 5.18 10.83 17.68 8.40. 8.12. 8.35 13.26 13.43 14.02 2.42. 7.62. 7.12 12.52 20.45 10.25 10.35. 政治大. 學. ‧ 國. 200902 8.46. 6.82. 200910 28.39 15.62 2.38. 8.98 10.39 16.06 15.70 16.08 4.12 10.06 7.80 13.45 21.23 12.78 13.01. 200911 32.60 17.49 2.89. 9.83 12.09 17.53 17.93 18.25 3.44 11.00 9.12 13.86 21.81 14.31 14.79. ‧. 200909 24.66 12.35 -0.45. 200912 32.24 17.24 2.31 10.80 12.55 17.99 17.43 18.56 2.91 11.21 7.57 12.31 19.84 14.33 14.90. y. Nat. sit. 201001 31.81 18.86 3.52 12.60 13.51 19.62 19.52 19.14 3.25 13.84 7.28 11.23 19.14 15.57 16.35. al. er. io. 201002 31.69 17.73 2.28 12.58 11.87 19.72 19.12 19.33 2.30 13.83 7.66 10.16 17.66 15.05 15.78. n. 201003 32.67 18.71 4.49 13.14 16.11 20.93 21.35 20.26 2.69 15.67 7.03 10.06 16.96 16.60 17.41. 4-46. HK. 201011 0.19. KO. MY. PH. Ch 三. SG. TW. engchi QE2 TH. i n U. v. 2010/11 ~ 2011/06. 手. CH. India. Indo. JP. EU. US. -0.70 -0.34 1.95. 0.63 0.47 -0.61. 0.82. -0.71. 0.28. -1.15. -1.37 -1.32. 201012 -1.37 -1.06 -0.48 2.64. 0.58 2.14 -0.05. 2.95. -1.00. 1.17. -1.72. -2.21 -1.98. Mean Median 0.20. 0.24. 0.55. 0.27. 201101 -1.16. 0.52. 2.18. 3.04. 2.21 5.05 -0.54. 6.97. -0.46. 0.84. -1.53. -0.76 -1.23. 1.87. 1.51. 201102 -2.22. 0.82. 3.18. 4.02. 3.72 5.23. 0.56. 8.95. -0.49. 2.67. -1.58. 0.08. -0.30. 2.64. 2.92. 201103 -2.50. 0.92. 4.82. 5.63. 4.80 5.02. 1.87 11.08 -0.09. 5.21. -0.05. 2.26. 1.26. 3.68. 4.81. 201104 0.44. 3.53 10.29 7.70. 6.52 7.63. 4.67 15.04. 1.68. 8.21. -0.01. 2.24. 2.76 6.57. 7.08. 201105 -0.04. 3.23 11.04 8.02. 6.98 8.17. 3.15 17.00. 1.14. 9.93. 1.25. 3.02. 3.19 6.86. 7.50. 201106 -0.93. 3.23 11.10 7.82. 7.65 8.28. 2.35 18.67. 0.82. 10.46. 1.54. 2.94. 3.46 6.94. 7.74. 33. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(43) 4-47. HK. 三. QE3. 2012/09 ~ 2014/10. 手. KO. MY. PH. SG. TW. TH. CH. India. Indo. JP. EU. US. 201209 0.77. 1.09. 1.74. 1.12. 1.67. 1.76. 2.01. 1.98. -0.56. 0.13. 0.44. 1.55. 1.54. 201210 1.14. 1.92. 2.72. 1.50. 2.43. 2.82. 2.11. 4.57. 1.57. 0.03. -0.14. 2.00. 1.52. Mean Median 1.17. 1.40. 2.08. 2.01. 2.98. 2.81. 3.01. 3.04. 3.52. 2.12. 6.15. 0.27. 0.23. -1.41. 1.61. 0.84. 2.60. 2.90. 201212 4.09. 3.51. 3.05. 3.09. 4.56. 4.14. 2.27. 6.41. 0.96. 0.59. -3.06. 2.27. 1.23. 3.27. 3.30. 201301 1.50. 4.15. 3.62. 4.23. 5.13. 4.67. 3.50. 8.79. 0.66. -0.61 -5.84. 3.32. 1.40. 3.56. 3.88. 201302 1.27. 3.23. 1.92. 3.53. 4.53. 2.77. 3.44. 8.01. 1.02. -1.69 -8.35. 2.76. 0.55 2.80. 3.00. 201303 0.66. 2.68. 1.42. 3.59. 3.86. 2.01. 3.74. 9.68. 0.60. -1.89 -9.43. 1.17. -1.00 2.64. 2.35. 201304 0.72. 2.29. 3.38. 2.60. 5.02. 2.38. 4.80 12.73 1.18. -1.25 -10.90 1.44. -0.87 3.38. 2.49. 201305 0.74. 2.50. 4.54. 1.73. 5.59. 2.84. 2.57 14.38 1.24. -1.96 -12.87 1.03. -1.66 3.42. 2.53. 201306 0.51. 1.42 -0.52 -1.07. 5.71. 2.36. -0.78 14.36 -0.58 -4.28 -11.33 1.64. -0.64 1.71. -0.00. 201307 0.28. 2.27 -1.45 -0.72. 6.03. -1.09 15.34 -2.09 -6.41 -12.02 1.46. -0.95 1.49. -0.22. 201308 1.11. 2.85 -4.63 -1.65. 立. 2.77. 6.31. 2.82. -2.94 16.04 -1.92 -7.88 -11.00 2.34. -0.41 1.01. -0.27. 201309 1.16. 4.89 -3.47 -1.14. 7.50. 4.24. -2.28 18.16 -5.81 -9.71 -11.07 2.95. 0.03 1.36. 0.01. 201310 2.32. 6.56 -1.14 -0.16. 9.02. 5.53. -1.29 20.33 -2.68 -9.45 -10.19 3.70. 0.74 2.90. 1.08. 201311 2.32. 7.00 -1.99 -0.81. 9.87. 5.22. -3.34 21.86 -1.75 -10.36 -11.53 3.05. 0.76. 201312 2.63. 7.49 -3.81 -1.92 10.26 4.85. ‧. -0.09 2.80. -4.96 23.38 -0.48 -11.27 -13.62 3.76. 0.10 2.62. 1.08. 201401 2.39. 7.49 -5.69 -4.97 10.14 3.81. -6.22 25.33 -1.60 -11.19 -13.45 4.28. -0.20 1.95. 0.39. 201402 2.96. 7.89 -6.46 -4.22 10.59 3.49. -5.27 24.75 -1.12 -9.83 -12.08 4.57. 0.13 2.28. 0.92. 201403 2.83. 8.35 -5.85 -4.59. 0.35 2.14. 1.56. 201404 3.79. 9.59 -4.86 -4.23 10.83 4.43. 政治大. n. 3.47. Ch. sit. io. 9.32. -4.92 20.65 0.29. er. Nat. al. 學. ‧ 國. 201211 1.89. y. -8.18 -12.61 4.98. n U engchi. iv. -4.43 18.90 2.44. -7.42 -12.58 5.07. 0.36 2.91. 3.12. -5.21 18.40 2.41. -7.37 -12.19 4.94. 0.34 3.26. 3.44. 201406 4.69 12.26 -3.67 -2.60 11.42 5.45. -5.04 18.90 3.32. -8.39 -12.39 4.56. 0.14 3.63. 4.01. 201407 5.62 12.49 -2.65 -2.11 10.43 5.63. -3.90 19.70 3.97. -6.81 -12.56 4.07. -0.25 4.24. 4.80. 201408 6.78 12.30 -2.45 -2.50. 9.96. 5.43. -4.19 21.60 3.03. -6.77 -13.16 3.53. -1.30 4.32. 4.23. 201409 5.51 11.44 -4.80 -3.70. 8.52. 4.61. -6.02 20.63 2.84. -7.47 -15.97 1.36. -3.46 3.16. 3.73. 201410 4.89 10.36 -6.05 -4.78. 7.86. 3.92. -6.84 20.53 2.96. -8.08 -16.37 0.73. -4.36 2.48. 3.44. 201405 4.47 11.09 -4.22 -2.97 11.28 4.72. 34. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(44) 4-48. HK. KO. MY. 2017/10 ~ 2018/04. 三. PH. SG. TW. TH. 手. CH India Indo. JP. EU. US. Mean Median. 201710 0.93 -0.06 -0.16 -0.83 -0.10 -0.30 0.09 -1.68 -0.85 -1.28 -1.05 -1.07 -1.00 -0.42 -0.23 201711 1.28 1.49 0.96 -0.29 0.28 0.66 1.37 -1.43 -0.62 -1.43 -1.00 -0.25 -0.99 0.23. 201712 1.73 2.46 2.60 1.15 0.22 1.22 1.80 -0.18 0.35 -0.45 -0.96 -0.00 -0.70 1.09. 0.47. 201801 2.34 4.10 4.91 0.73 0.67 3.53 6.04 4.80 2.18 0.43 0.03. 2.04 1.29. 2.98. 2.94. 201802 2.25 3.46 5.67 -1.40 1.88 4.11 6.56 7.41 1.81 -1.10 0.91. 2.32 1.82. 3.07. 2.86. 201803 -0.35 4.08 7.25 -1.71 2.73 4.44 7.67 7.58 1.71 -2.03 1.88. 3.65 1.89 3.14. 3.40. 201804 -1.98 4.47 8.10 -2.18 3.73 4.02 7.51 7.87 1.83 -2.44 0.75. 2.58. 3.87. 4-45 ~ 4-48. QE. 三了三. 手. 2009/06. 三. 二反＊. ‧. io. n. al. 16.60 QE2. 手. QE1 文文. Ch. 引. e n g二反 chi. v. i n U. QE2. QE2. 1.75. 6000. 引三. 3.42. 手. 二反. 。. 6.94. sit. Nat. QE1. y. 引. QE1. 2013/05. 六. 學. ‧ 國. 了. ）. 三. QE1. QE1. 二反. 立. 引. 三. er. 。 QE. NA 3.09. 手. 政治大. 方. 1.19. 引. 引. QE1 QE2. QE1 > QE2 > QE3. 2013/06. 三引. 三了. 三. 手了. ）. ） 35. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(45) 了. 三. 公. 六. 公. 4-49. HK. KO. MY. 三. 2008/12 ~ 2010/03. SG. TW. TH. CH. 200812 10.10 -4.84 -5.28 -0.17. 1.12. 0.37. 0.55. 1.35. 200901 8.24. 1.42. -0.12. 1.22. 0.89. -4.10 -5.17. PH. QE1. 2.57. India. 手 Indo. JP. EU. US. -1.83 -4.31. 4.96. -2.76. 2.86. -3.04 -3.85. 4.29. -6.19. 0.52. Mean Median -0.29. 0.10. -0.19. 0.38. 200902 6.23. -6.71 -7.55. 1.52. 200903 8.85. -6.00 -10.69 0.69. -1.06 -1.85. 1.30. 2.66. -2.63 -6.46. 1.71. -9.85 -3.87. -1.46. -1.46. -2.35. 0.73. 1.34. 4.27. -4.92 -3.56. 0.14. -9.68 -3.90. -1.16. -0.83. 3.06. 2.32. 200904 14.04 1.08. -6.30. 2.58. 1.15. 5.87. 3.32. 7.99. -1.17. 2.07. 1.39. -7.28 -0.70. 200905 19.68 7.35. -1.43. 5.36. 5.68 12.23. 9.36. 12.15 2.76. 7.47. 3.92. -2.36. 6.27 8.06. 7.41. 200906 21.78 8.33. 0.76. 6.27. 8.19 13.33 11.84 14.78 6.85. 4.78. -1.05. 7.94 10.18. 8.98. 200907 25.71 10.47 0.73. 7.42. 9.13 14.95 13.19 18.99 6.72 10.79 5.63. 0.66. 9.26 11.81 10.63. 立. 政治大 9.63. 200908 29.09 14.35 3.86 10.56 12.33 16.18 16.55 19.34 8.54 13.75 7.85 11.68 18.67 14.45 14.05. ‧ 國. 學. 200909 30.91 18.02 6.15 11.78 14.67 19.94 20.56 20.40 9.60 17.23 9.57 14.29 22.26 16.93 17.62 200910 35.46 20.96 9.92 14.68 16.92 23.55 23.53 22.89 11.91 20.31 9.76 15.48 23.63 20.01 20.64. ‧. 200911 40.29 22.23 11.07 16.31 19.17 25.12 24.90 26.90 11.00 20.85 10.24 16.06 24.74 21.78 21.54 200912 39.43 22.85 10.50 17.51 20.50 26.28 25.09 27.34 11.24 21.81 9.80 14.95 23.32 22.26 22.33. y. Nat. sit. 201001 38.70 24.91 12.30 19.38 21.94 28.72 27.64 27.59 11.81 25.71 10.44 14.47 22.94 23.87 25.31. al. er. io. 201002 37.28 22.71 10.31 18.56 19.22 26.86 26.34 26.54 9.48 25.06 9.84 12.43 20.60 22.24 23.88. n. 201003 39.21 24.52 13.72 20.44 24.57 29.06 30.28 27.94 11.34 28.37 10.23 13.72 21.44 24.95 26.26. 4-50. HK. 201011 0.59. KO. MY. PH. Ch 三. SG. TW. engchi QE2. TH. i n U. v. 2010/11 ~ 2011/06. 手. CH. India. Indo. JP. EU. US. -0.40 -0.07 1.78. 0.91. 0.74 -0.08. 1.31. -0.81. 0.60. -0.52. -1.03. -0.76. 201012 -1.52 -0.09 -0.15 2.33. 0.61. 3.21. 2.81. -1.30. 1.49. -0.16. -1.15. -0.54. 0.68. Mean Median 0.46. 0.59. 0.81. 0.65. 201101 -0.71. 2.24. 3.20. 2.40. 2.59. 6.50 -0.05. 6.45. -1.23. 0.63. 0.39. 0.73. 1.05. 2.20. 2.32. 201102 -2.21. 1.87. 3.61. 2.41. 3.34. 6.42. 0.49. 8.85. -2.18. 2.06. 0.70. 2.01. 2.79. 2.46. 2.24. 201103 -2.60. 1.86. 5.19. 4.30. 4.02. 5.71. 2.42 11.42 -1.46. 5.05. 0.67. 3.24. 3.99. 3.59. 4.16. 201104 1.01. 5.78 11.07 7.79. 6.51. 8.84. 6.42 15.63. 8.87. 0.37. 3.56. 6.07 7.30. 7.15. 201105 -0.10. 5.25 11.79 8.23. 6.82. 9.52. 4.66 16.78 -0.34 10.87. 1.72. 4.34. 6.63 7.35. 7.53. 201106 -1.59. 4.83 12.25 7.87. 7.11. 9.34. 3.11 17.84 -0.71 11.36. 1.70. 3.37. 5.86 7.14. 7.49. 1.06. 36. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(46) 4-51. HK. 三. QE3. 2012/09 ~ 2014/10. 手. KO. MY. PH. SG. TW. TH. CH. India. Indo. JP. EU. US. 201209 1.02. 1.44. 1.52. 1.23. 1.60. 2.21. 2.63. 1.66. -0.09. 0.37. 0.46. 1.89. 2.21. 201210 2.31. 2.14. 2.97. 2.07. 2.44. 2.91. 3.18. 4.44. 2.61. 0.76. -0.40. 2.28. 2.08. Mean Median 1.36. 1.48. 2.58. 2.53. 2.84. 2.59. 3.92. 2.71. 3.20. 3.10. 5.64. 1.29. 1.03. -1.15. 1.87. 0.68. 2.97. 2.97. 201212 6.28. 4.00. 3.13. 4.88. 5.12. 4.65. 4.19. 6.48. 2.58. 1.24. -1.16. 3.24. 1.56. 4.25. 4.42. 201301 4.59. 4.72. 3.93. 7.08. 6.25. 5.45. 6.42 10.15 2.68. 0.47. -2.15. 4.94. 2.71. 5.17. 5.09. 201302 4.13. 3.74. 1.61. 7.93. 6.00. 3.91. 7.52 10.00 2.66. 0.13. -3.36. 4.36. 2.47 4.76. 4.02. 201303 2.94. 3.31. 1.42. 8.46. 5.33. 3.13. 8.38 10.98 1.88. 0.87. -2.52. 3.41. 1.62 4.67. 3.22. 201304 2.63. 2.45. 4.20. 8.15. 6.70. 3.48. 9.16 13.42 2.29. 2.02. -1.94. 3.43. 2.09 5.45. 3.84. 201305 3.42. 2.97. 6.38. 8.41. 7.89. 4.75. 7.96 15.43 3.37. 1.87. -1.47. 4.15. 2.53 6.25. 5.57. 201306 1.52. 1.13. 1.29. 2.87. 6.49. 3.68. 2.45 14.49 0.74. -1.86 -2.78. 3.48. 3.18 3.28. 1.99. 201307 1.47. 1.84. 0.70. 3.78. 7.05. 2.10 14.62 -0.38 -4.42 -1.03. 3.83. 3.72 3.11. 1.97. 201308 2.98. 2.65. -2.90. 2.12. 立. 4.33. 7.03. 3.99. -0.61 15.75 -1.36 -6.73 -1.22. 5.38. 4.34 2.29. 2.38. 201309 3.87. 5.49. 201310 5.16. 7.52. 201311 5.35. 7.81. 201312 5.72. 8.11. 201401 4.91. 7.76. 201402 5.00 201403 4.68. 政治大. 2.24. 8.10. 6.02. 0.21 18.67 -4.45 -8.80. 0.07. 6.56. 5.06 2.97. 3.05. 1.15. 4.09. 9.87. 7.70. 1.86 20.83 -0.49 -7.97. 0.87. 7.77. 6.41 4.97. 4.62. 0.40. 2.74 10.75 7.10. -0.88 22.21 0.59. 0.71. 7.81. 6.74 4.67. 4.05. -0.78. 0.43 10.66 7.17. -3.25 23.73 2.26 -10.87 0.26. 8.18. 7.39 4.32. 3.99. -3.00 -2.35 10.54 6.41. -5.46 24.79 1.06 -10.27 0.45. y. 7.39 3.44. 2.99. 8.05. -3.76 -1.07 10.56 5.99. -4.10 24.50 1.20. -8.27 -0.40 10.06 7.63 3.81. 3.10. 8.63. -2.99 -0.55. -2.97 20.08 3.83. -5.79 -0.78 10.42 8.69 4.10. n. 9.71. 6.40. 9.61. sit. io. al. -9.41. er. Nat. -1.65. ‧. 學. ‧ 國. 201211 3.40. iv. 4.25. 201404 6.24 10.24 -1.54. 0.58 12.04 7.85. 201405 6.85 11.71 -0.67. 2.35 12.67 8.22. n U engchi. 201406 7.63 12.95 -0.03. 2.69 12.94 9.63. -1.62 18.37 10.00 -5.28. 0.46 11.42 10.06 6.73. 8.63. 201407 9.11 13.42 1.08. 3.56 12.14 10.40 0.32 19.49 11.08 -3.12. 0.82 10.58 10.18 7.75. 9.76. 201408 11.27 13.59 1.04. 3.70 11.75 9.73. 0.34 22.38 10.52 -2.67. 0.23. 9.37. 8.93 8.16. 10.12. 201409 9.61 12.57 -1.47. 3.21 10.29 8.86. -0.88 22.13 11.13 -3.19 -1.30. 8.15. 7.39 7.23. 9.23. 201410 7.97 10.59 -3.30. 1.76. -2.16 22.33 10.96 -4.45 -2.88. 5.90. 5.46 5.99. 7.59. 9.00. Ch. 7.22. -1.90 18.61 6.74. -4.43 -1.15 10.88 8.73 5.44. 6.49. -2.70 17.78 7.64. -4.15 -0.96 11.30 9.21 5.97. 7.24. 37. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(47) 4-52. HK. KO. MY. 2017/10 ~ 2018/04. 三. PH. SG. TW. TH. CH. India. 手. Indo. JP. EU. US. 201710 1.32. 0.64. -0.53 -0.28 0.49 -0.03 0.69 -1.61 -0.60 -1.05. 0.23. -0.41. -0.29. 201711 2.26. 2.80. 0.26. 1.52. 0.29. 0.12. 0.26. 1.49. 1.07. 1.96 -1.31 -0.02 -0.90. Mean Median -0.10. -0.16. 0.79. 0.67. 201712 2.67. 3.22. 2.12. 1.66. 1.49. 1.21. 2.61 -0.49 0.97. 0.33. 1.81. 0.55. 1.20. 1.58. 1.57. 201801 5.05. 5.29. 5.77. 2.42. 2.70. 4.38. 7.84. 5.20. 3.60. 2.26. 3.59. 3.14. 4.50. 4.45. 4.72. 201802 4.44. 3.99. 6.82 -0.28 3.50. 4.33. 8.32. 7.00. 2.79. 1.11. 2.89. 2.21. 4.17. 4.20. 4.16. 201803 1.76. 4.71. 8.52 -1.51 4.43. 5.14. 9.34. 7.06. 2.16. -0.55. 3.31. 3.12. 4.17 4.11. 4.57. 201804 -0.23. 5.18. 9.50 -2.87 5.62. 4.54. 8.85. 6.78. 2.70. -1.37. 2.67. 2.44. NA 3.87. 4.86. 4-49 ~ 4-52. 三. 立. 三引 2010/03 二反. QE1 文. io. al. 7.14 QE3. 引. n. 引. 24.95 QE2. 手. 24.95. 6.25. er. Nat. 二反 QE1. 三. ‧. 16.60. 三. 學. 三. 。. y. 三. 三. sit. ＝. ‧ 國. 了. 手. 手治三政大引。. 三了. 二反. Ch. 三. i n U. v. engchi 三. 。. 三. 又. （. QE1. 小. QE2 QE3. 引. 引. 引. 手公. 38. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(48) 小 Eichengreen & Gupta (2015) 力。. 二反＊. 引. 二反. 。。. 手. 少. 文少. 手手 4-53. 少手. 也. 下. 、文. 手. y. 下. n. al. 也. 分. er. io ：. ‧. Nat. 、 12 ＝. Public debt to GDP ratio Inflation Reserve to M2 ratio Reserve to GDP ratio Reserve to total external debt ratio Reserve to short-term debt ratio Inflows of bond, equity, and loans GDP Current account balance to GDP ratio. 學. Budget deficit Public debt Foreign reserves GDP growth rate Reserve in prior period Fiscal deficit Stock Market Capitalization Portfolio liability stock Average Annual % change in Real exchange rate. 立. 三. ‧ 國. 文. 手. 政治大. 少. •. 手. ）. sit. （. 下. 三. 下. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 三. Reserves to M2 Ratio. M2. → 2007. 入. M2. 天。上中. 五. ＝. 文. World Bank WDI • GDP → 2007. GDP 、 World Bank WDI 39. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(49) • i.. Current Account Balance to GDP Ratio 2002-2007. 手. GDP 、. →. ＝. IMF WEO database ii.. Average Annual % Change in RER =100. RER =. *. /. 2005-2007. 手. 手. 政治內大內五. 立. 引. 、. ‧ 國手. IMF IFS database. 小. sit. y. 公。. er. QE1: 2008/10. al. n. 2012/08. 。. ‧. io 引. 小. 手. 天. Nat. ）. 手. 學. QE ＊. → 2005. 手. Ch. (. &. n U engchi. −. iv. QE2: 2010/10. QE3:. 手. ) /. QE. 互手 DataStream. ( 3-1. &. 62 ＋. −. 手. ) / QE1. 手. 互手. 二反＊ 40. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(50) 小＝. 2009/03. 下. 手. R-square. 下. 。. 二反＊. 下. 0.59 GDP. 手. 手. ＝. 三. ＝ 2009/03. 手 •. （. GDP 3.08. GDP. (. ). 2005~2007. GDP. 二反. 2002~2004. 。. 政治大二反引. 引. 立. 。. 手：. ‧ 國. 學. •. 了. 手. 手引. 手. y 太了. n. al. 2007. Ch. 二反. •. n U engchi 引手手. M2 引. 二反. sit. 手. io 。. ）. 手. er. ＝. 2005. 太. ）. Nat. 公. ‧. 。. 0.81. iv. 分. ＝手. 手 QE1. ＝. 。. 分二反. 下. 二反. 引. ：. Adjusted R-squared. 二反二反. 引. 下 41. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(51) 3-2. 62 ＋. 3-3. 63 ＋. QE2. QE3. Adjusted R-squared. 手（. QE2. 手. QE3 M2. ＝手 QE1: 2008/10. QE2: 2010/10 ＝. 3-4 ~ 3-6. QE 手. 立. 2005~2007. 手. QE1 了. 0.73. 了. QE1. ‧. QE3 QE3. y. Nat. 了. n. al. 手. Ch. 。. e n g c h引i. 天. sit. io. 4-51. 下. 學. ‧ 國. GDP. 2014/10 2014/10. 2009/03. 手政治大. GDP. 3.09. 手. 64 65 ＋. 下. 手. 0.42. er. 手. QE3: 2012/08. i n U. v. 4-47. 互. 了 4-1. 66 ＋. QE1. 手. QE1. 手. 下 QE1. 手了（. 2005. 2007. 六手. 。. 二反. 引. QE1 R-Squared QE. 六. 。. 引 42. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(52) 4-2. 66 ＋. 2011/01. 2011/02. 4-3 M2. QE2. 手. 下. 手. 下. ＝. 引. QE2. 67 ＋. QE3. QE3 M2. 一 4-14. 2013/06. 手 4-43. 手. 手. 4-4 ~ 4-6. （. io. y. 2005. 2007. al. 手. n. QE1. Ch. QE2. engchi U. v ni. ：文. 下. sit. 六. 手. 手. Nat. QE1. QE2. QE. ‧. QE1. 手. 68 69 ＋. er. 手. 政治公大. 學. ‧ 國. 立. 2012/08. QE2 4-42. 支引. QE2. 引. 又. 引. 手天. QE1 QE3. （. 了. 天手. QE1. 引. QE3 天 43. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(53) 二反. 及. ＝. 及. 二反. 二反. 引化. 二反三. 三. 文. 。. 三. 引文. 小三. 。二反. 政治大. 立. 學. QE2 QE3. ‧ 國. （. 。 QE1. 方引. ＝. QE3. 方. ‧. al. 引. n. 公. （. y. 上. （. Ch. 引. 文. er. 。. io. 上. 互. QE1. sit. QE3. Nat. QE2. QE1. 引. 士. ＊. 引. n U engchi ＊. 二反 QE1. iv. 引三. 三. 少三 QE1. QE1. QE2 QE3 支. 引. 二反＊. ）. （引方. 引＝. 44. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.

(54) 公. 天. 了. 天. 。. 引 QE1. 手。. 少. 二反. 引. 。下. 中. ，. 了. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 45. DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.MB.015.2018.F06.