一九九八年大陸的外貿表現：J曲線效應探討

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(17) *. - :tL :tL )\ 1¥ :7;:: 1f¥1i¥J 7f. 11( fJil. : J !Ill. I~ fI' flifi$tJi! $! , f&. **3&1f!:f5t'! 1M. Mainland China's Foreign Trade in. ~o. i!l! fe;:f11H~m~ 52 jf:g. 1998: a Discussion of the J-curve Effect. ~JM;l/i&b(tgtfjC1~. l'GiITfJf(tgfifJf3l' , ITffljlJj (tg /ijN ~~ 11 ~iI!1l/io'blt1l8 ~ , 11 % ; it [WilD1Jf 1(tg tfj C1 *litM.iE ~. Shu-fen Hung. Abstract. *~jf~, It~ {JJ J1ltQS: Nt f#1 f1 ~. Although mainland China was not directly involved in the financial crisis. '!f1~"~~*. that occurred in 1997, the influence of the crisis on China's exports exceeded. 'tfjC1~*:W. ~ /ijN 1:1: fWJfZ. fiEf. the expectations of Chinese Oifficials. From 1997 to 1998, the economic growth rate was only 0.5%, the lowest increase in 15 years. In 1998, mainland China's imports decreased 1.5 %. A favorable trade balance of US$ 43.59. *. b /ijN *If¥l.~ 11. billion was achieved. The net growth of the trade surplus was 7.9 %. Obviously, this favorable international trade balance was due to the decrease imports. Mainland China exports could possibly be affected by the currency de. '. ~z* !M!f1~ :r.:,'1lI ' ?iOFkJ 11 if~r-.FiI:~,. valuation resulting from the East Asian financial crisis. However, most of the. i£*4i1:l/i(tg. :P~"~ME~. competitiveness initially gained by those Asian countries that devalued their currencies was quickly lost. This is due not only to a rebound in their currencies, but also to excessive inflation fuelled by rising import prices. At the same. , tfj CJ ~*,!E\. ~**-3:!':: j fie !f1 /ijN ~. *. time, such adjustments by mainland China as raised interest rates had partially overcome the pressure of the devaluation of East Asian countries' currencies. In the next one or two years, the devaluation of East Asian currencies will affect mainland's internal trading, making it difficult to maintain a high economic growth rate in the mainland. keywords : 1998, export, international trade, J-curve effect, foreign exchange rate. }. I. .I..... 51.

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