由調整的結構現實主義架構 觀察加拿大‐中國石油關係 - 政大學術集成
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(2) Abstract In recent years, Canada has increased its significance in the global oil market. The Albertan oil sands, along with the recent oil price hike have allowed companies to begin to exploit this potential. Hitherto, there has been little actual change in terms of Canada’s apparent energy plan or in its actual oil trading partners. As Zweig (2005) mentioned the oil sands are a potential sticking point for Canada. America deems Canada, and especially the oil sands projects, an essential key to their energy security; while China is scanning the globe looking for new energy partners. Based on supply and demand Canada seems a logical fit, however, basic economics and politics do not always mix, as it appears that Canada itself is lacking a clear energy plan for their own future. This paper will look at the opportunities for greater Canada‐China oil trade, and at the concerns arising from this in a customized structural realism framework as Canada needs to strengthen its national energy plan, to focus attention on its own citizens, companies and the environment. Keywords: Canada, China, Oil, Energy . iii .
(3) Table of Contents 1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………………………1 1.1 Statement of the Problem and Purpose of the Study………………………………………..1 1.1.1 Statement of the Problem………………………………………………………………………1 1.1.2 Purpose of the Study………………………………………………………………………………2 1.2 Motives for the Paper…………….…………………………………………………………………………4 1.3 Research Questions…………………………………………………………………………………………..4 1.4 Preliminary Findings………………………………………………………………………………………….5 1.5 Limitations of the Study…………………………………………………………………………………….6 1.6 Definitions………………………………………………………………………………………………………..7 2. Literature Review and Methodology……………………………………………………………………….8 2.1 Literature Review……………………………………………………………………………………………..8 2.1.1 Structural Realism/Neo‐realism……………………………………………………………..8 2.1.2 Canada Energy Supply………………………………………………………………………….13 2.1.3 China Energy Demand………………………………………………………………………….14 2.1.4 Canada and China Oil Relations……………………………………………………………16 2.2 Methodology………………………………………………………………………………………………….16 3. Theoretical Overview……………………………………………………………………………………………18 3.1 System: Anarchy – Conflict and Cooperation………………………………………………….18 3.2 Structure…………………………………………………………………………………………………………19 3.3 Units……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….19 3.4 Survival…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..21 3.5 Security…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..21 3.6 Welfare…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..22 3.7 Similar Needs, Different Abilities – Different Lenses of Power…………………………22 3.8 Satisficing………………………………………………………………………………………………………..23 3.9 Rationale Behind Theory Selection………………………………………………………………….28 4. Canadian Oil Landscape – The Burgeoning Power…………….…………………………………..29 4.1 Overview of Canadian Energy Landscape……………………………………………………….29 4.2 Federal Institutions…………………………………………………………………………………………32 4.2.1 National Energy Board………………………………………………………………………….32 4.3 Provincial Level……………………………………………………………………………………………….37 4.3.1 Alberta Energy and Utilities Board………………………………………………………..37 4.4 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)…………………………………………….40 4.5 Major Oil Companies Involved in the Oil Sands……………………………………………….41 4.6 Overview of Oil Sands Projects………………………………………………………………………..44 4.7 Canada as an Oil Exporter……………………………………………………………………………….48 iv .
(4) 4.8 Brief Overview of the US Markets……………………………………………………………………50 4.9 US Institutions – The Department of Energy ……………………….………………………….53 5. China Oil Landscape – The Thirsty Dragon…………………………………………………………….56 5.1 Overview of China Energy Landscape………………………………………………………………56 5.2 Institutions……………………………………………………………………………………………………..58 5.3 Government Agencies…………………………………………………………………………………….61 5.4 Major Oil Companies………………………………………………………………………………………65 5.4.1 China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)…………………………………….67 5.4.2 China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec)…………………………….68 5.4.3 China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)……………………………….68 5.5 Overall Energy Demand…………………………………………………………………………………..69 5.6 China as an Oil Importer………………………………………………………………………………….73 6. Data Analysis and Theoretical Recap…………………………………..………………………………..76 6.1 Sino‐Canada Oil Relations……………………………………………………………………………….76 6.2 Threats and Opportunities………………………………………………………………………………82 6.2.1 Canada Wants More Interaction………….……………………………………………….82 6.2.2 China Wants More Interaction…………….……………………………………………….84 6.2.3 Bilateral Interests and Problem Areas – The US Issue…………….…………….86 6.3 Theoretical Recap……………………………………………………………………………………………93 7. Conclusions and Recommendations………………………………………………………………………99 7.1 Further Research………………………………………………………………………………………….101 Appendix………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..102 References………………………………………………………………………………………………………………129 . v .
(5) List of Figures . Figure 4.1 ‐ Canada Oil Industry Snapshot………………………………………………………………..…..32 Figure 4.1 ‐ Overview of NEB Hierarchy…………………………….………………………………………….35 Figure 4.3 ‐ AEUB Organizational Hierarchy……………………………………………………….…………39 Figure 4.4 ‐ Spot Crude Oil (WTI) Prices……………………………………..…………………………………45 Figure 4.5 ‐ Overview of Albertan Oil Sands Projects…………………………………………………….46 Figure 4.2 ‐ Canada's Crude Oil Production and Consumption………………………………………48 Figure 4.3 ‐ North American Pipelines ‐ Existing, Planned and Possible…………………..……50 Figure 4.4 ‐ US Oil Consumption and Production………………………………………………………….52 Figure 4.9 ‐ US Department of Energy Organizational Chart……………………………..………….55 Figure 5.1 ‐ Current Formation of China's Energy Institutions…………………………………….…58 Figure 5.2 ‐ China's GDP and GDP/capita Growth Since 1980…….…………………………………70 Figure 5.3 ‐ Popularity of Major Methods of Transportation………………………………………..71 Figure 5.4 ‐ China's Oil Consumption and Production……………………………………………………72 Figure 5.5 ‐ Current, Future and Proposed Pipelines for China……………………………………..75 List of Tables Table 2.1 ‐ Overview of Albertan Oil Sands Projects……….…………………………………..………..13 Table 1.2 ‐ Projections of China's Oil Demand in 2020………………………………………….………15 Table 3.1 Framework of Customized Structural Realism Matrix……………………………………25 Table 3.2: Oil Rich Countries…………………………………………………………………………………………27 Table 4.1 ‐ Canada's Resource Power……………………………………………………………………………29 Table 4.2 ‐ NEB Board Members…………………………………………………………………….…………….35 Table 4.3 ‐ General Overview of the NEB……………………………..………………………………………36 Table 4.4 ‐ Overview of the EUB Controls and Resources…………….……………………………….38 Table 4.5 ‐ Overview of Projects and Operators………………………………………………….………..47 Table 4.6 ‐ Western Canadian Crude Exports in 2005…………………..……………………………….49 Table 4.7 ‐ Global Oil Production, Consumption, Exports and Imports…………….……………51 Table 4.8 ‐ Leading Importing Countries of Petroleum to the US………………………………….53 Table 4.9 ‐ US Department of Energy Budget………………………………………………….……………54 Table 5.1 ‐ Overview of China's Energy Institutional Changes…………………..…………………..56 Table 5.2 ‐ ELG Board Members……………………………………………………………………………………64 Table 5.3 ‐ China's Big Three Oil Companies…………………………………………………………………69 Table 5.4 ‐ Energy Demand for Various Countries in 2005…………………………….………………73 Table 5.5 ‐ Recent China Expected Demand Growth vs. Actual Growth………………..………72 Table 5.6 ‐ Projections of China's Oil Demand in 2020………………………………………………….74 Table 6.1 ‐ Canada's Total Imports and Exports to and from China and World……………..76 vi .
(6) Table 6.2 ‐ Customized Structural Realism Matrix…………………………………………………………94 . vii .
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