䫔⚃䭨ġ 䞼䨞㕡㱽冯㝞㥳
ᶨˣ䞼䨞㕡㱽
㛔婾㒔ẍ㔀ḳἄ䁢↯ℍ夾奺炻᷎ῇ䓐大㕡㔀ḳ⬠䎮婾ˣ埻婆炻⽆㔀ḳ䳸㥳ˣ 㔀ḳ䩳⟜ˣ㔀ḳ夾奺䫱媠⣂㕡朊⯽攳炻奨䚳傉ㅱ湇⮵䫮姀⍲⮷婒䘬∝ἄ炻⼿↢ᷕ
⚳䫮姀㔯⬠⍲⮷婒䘬㔀ḳ䈡⽝烊⎴㗪Ṏ⛐傉ㅱ湇䘬教嬨⽫⼿ᷕ㉥両⺢㥳↢ᷕ⚳㔀 ḳ䎮婾ˤ吋ᷫ㔴㎕䣢㔀ḳ䎮婾㕤ᷕ⚳㔯⬠䘬䞼䨞忳䓐㕡⺷炻妨烉
௶٣ᏢፕࢂᏹբπڀǴךॺࣴزޑჹຝ߾ࢂύ୯ЎᏢǶࡽฅٗπڀȐவ
ཷۺǵጄᛑډӚᅿБݤکࡘၡȑԖҔǵӳҔǴךॺฅाٰ৾ǴऐЈӦᏢ
٬ҔǹՠΞሡਔਔόבࣴزჹຝޑᐱ܄Ƕ90
⎗夳ᷕ⚳㔯⬠㚱℞㔀ḳ䘬䌐䈡⿏炻ㅱẍᷕ⚳㔯⬠䁢ᷣ炻㔀ḳ⬠䎮婾䁢庼炻♜嫡思
⬰䎮婾ἧ䓐䘬↮晃炻㕡傥⮵ᷕ⚳㔯⬠㔀ḳ㚱ℐ朊䘬Ḯ妋ˤ
侴㛔婾䞼䨞㕡㱽ẍ䞍Ṣ婾ᶾ㱽⍲㔯㛔↮㜸㱽䁢ᷣ炻忚埴㍊妶傉ㅱ湇㔀ḳ侭埴 䁢冯䩳⟜炻⍲℞㔀ḳ䎮婾䘬䇔㡛冯娖慳䞼䨞烊᷎ẍ㬠䲵㱽冯㺼両㱽ˣ㭼庫㱽䁢庼炻
⮵⼿屯妲娛≈伭↿↮㜸㭼庫炻ẍ⺢㥳傉ㅱ湇㔀ḳ⬠䎮婾ˤ䞼䨞㕡㱽䳘婾⤪ᶳ烉
(ᶨ) 䞍Ṣ婾ᶾ㱽
ˬ䞍Ṣ婾ᶾ˭㗗⁛䴙㔯⬠䘬ᷣ天㈡姽㧉⺷炻ẍ⭊奨奺⹎⮯ἄ⑩ˣἄ侭冯䣦㚫 側㘗䚠Ḻ倗专侫⮇炻ẍ㌴㎉ἄ⑩䘬㶙Ⰼシ㵝炻᷎㯪⼿⮵ἄ⑩䘬ℐ朊娵嬀ˤ㛔婾忳 䓐㬌㱽炻Ỹẍ⏛㗿˨傉ㅱ湇⸜嬄˩䫱䚠斄⎚㕁⍲℞˪⮹⭌Ⱉ普˫ˣ˪⮹⭌Ⱉ䫮
⎊˫䫱∝ἄ冯冒徘炻Ḯ妋傉ㅱ湇嗽㗪ẋ側㘗ˣ䓇⸛⽿嵋ˣ叿㚠㗪攻ˣ∝ἄ⿅゛
䫱ˤ啱㬌㖶℞㔀ḳ≽㨇ˣ䩳⟜炻᷎㍊妶䞍嬀側㘗⮵℞㔀ḳ䎮婾⺢㥳ⷞἮ䘬Ὗ旸烊
⎴㗪炻䓙㬌侫⮇℞㔯䌣䇰㛔⍲˪⮹⭌Ⱉ䫮⎊˫䘬㔯㛔䳸㥳ˣ∝ἄ㖐嵋䫱㔀ḳ䚠 斄⓷柴ˤ
(Ḵ) 㔯㛔↮㜸㱽
㔯㛔↮㜸㱽㗗㊯⮵㔯㛔䘬↮㜸冯娖慳ˤ椾⃰炻㟡㒂㛔婾䓴婒䘬ˬ㔀ḳ˭奨
90 吋ᷫ㔴烉˪ᷕ⚳㔯⬠㔀ḳ⁛䴙䞼䨞˫炻枩 18炼19ˤ 23
⾝冯䭬⚵炻⮵傉ㅱ湇˪⮹⭌Ⱉ䫮⎊˫ℏ⭡忚埴䇔㡛㩊教炻⼿↢℞ᷕ㴱⍲㔀ḳ㔯 㛔⍲㔀ḳ奨溆ᷳ䚠斄姽徘炻᷎Ṽ䳘䞼嬨↮㜸炻慸㶭℞㔀ḳ䎮婾ᷕ䘬㔀ḳ㤪⾝ˣ∝
ἄ⍇⇯ˣ㈨ⶏ㕡㱽⍲℞姽婾堐徘ᷳ㕡⺷冯ℏ⭡䫱ˤ℞㫉炻⮵˪䓚ḁ∑妨˫⮷婒∝
ἄᷕ䘬ℏ⭡シ喲ˣ婆妨喅埻ˣ柴㛸堐忼䫱㔀ḳㆸ↮忚埴↮㜸冯娖慳ˤ
(ᶱ) 㬠䲵㱽冯㺼両㱽
媪䘬㬠䲵㱽炻㗗㊯㈲奨⮇⇘䘬䎦尉⍲䳸㝄忚埴䴙㔜炻⽆ᷕ㈦↢⭂⇯炻ẍ妋 慳㫚妋慳䘬㜙大烊㺼両㱽⇯㗗㊯忳䓐怷廗Ἦ㍐䎮炻䓙䞍䘬㝸枭⭂䎮⮶↢ᶳᾳ䘬
⭂䎮炻㍐㺼侴ᶳ炻Ἦ⼿⇘ᶨᾳ䳸婾炻ℑ侭ᶵᶨ⭂㇒䃞䌐䩳炻㗪ⷠ䚠庼䚠ㆸˤ˪⮹
⭌Ⱉ䫮⎊˫Ⱄ䫮姀橼炻ℏ⭡楩暄暞㔋ˤ⚈㬌㛔婾ἧ䓐㬌㱽⮯㉥両↢䘬㔀ḳ䚠 斄婾徘炻⃰ὅ⎚⁛ˣ⮷婒冯㇚㚚ᶱ䧖ᶵ⎴㔯橼忚埴㬠䲵炻ℵ㊱㔀ḳ橼ἳˣ㔀ḳ⍇
⇯ˣ㔀ḳ⍾㛸䫱天溆忚埴䳘↮炻㬠䳸⺢㥳↢傉ㅱ湇㔀ḳ䎮婾䘬夷䭬冯₡ῤˤ⎎炻
˪⮹⭌Ⱉ䫮⎊˫㖊Ⱄ䫮姀橼埴㔯庫䁢䱦䯉炻㗗ẍ℞夳妋晾⣂䱦斊⤏⥁嗽炻䃞仢
᷷ἳ嫱㍐婾侴ἧ婾徘ᶵ╖唬ˤ㓭㛔婾⛐℞䎮婾➢䢶ᶲ炻Ḱẍ䚠斄ḳἳ⮎嫱炻ẍ
⡆⻟℞䎮婾ὅ㒂ˤ
(⚃) 㭼庫㱽
㭼庫㱽㗗㊯ˬ䔞⽭枰⛐ℑᾳㆾ⣂ᾳḳẞ攻炻⺢㥳↢ᶨ䧖斄Ὢ㗪炻ὧ暨㍉⍾ᶨ 䧖㍸䵙㊰柀⺷䘬奨溆忚埴䞼䨞ˤ˭91ˤ⮷婒㔀ḳ⛐⎚⁛㔀ḳᷕ㰚⍾梲↮侴䘤⯽炻
⚈㬌㛔婾忳䓐㬌㱽⮯ℑ䧖㔀ḳ⍇⇯ˣ㈨ⶏ忚埴⮵㭼炻⏰栗↢ℑ䧖ᶵ⎴䘬㔀ḳ夷䭬ˤ
⎎炻˪⮹⭌Ⱉ䫮⎊˫䁢傉ㅱ湇䘬㔀ḳ䎮婾炻˪䓚ḁ∑妨˫⇯䁢℞⮷婒∝ἄ炻㛔婾 Ṏ䓐㭼庫㱽奨⮇㬌ℑ侭攻䘬㔀ḳ䎮婾冯∝ἄ⮎嶸攻䘬ㅱ冯᷾忽ˤ
Ḵ
Ḵˣ㛔㔯㝞㥳
㛔婾㔯⽆㔀ḳ⬠奺⹎㩊夾傉ㅱ湇∝ἄ炻▿娎⽆˪⮹⭌Ⱉ䫮⎊˫⍲˪䓚ḁ∑
妨˫忚埴侫⮇炻昌㍊妶ℑ㚠䘬㔀ḳ⿏岒烊⎎⮵˪⮹⭌Ⱉ䫮⎊˫ᷕ㚱斄㔀ḳᷳ婾 徘忚埴㡛䎮䞼䨞炻⮯℞ᷕ⼿㔀ḳ䎮婾炻冯˪䓚ḁ∑妨˫䘬㔀ḳ∝ἄ忚埴䎮婾冯
⮎嶸䘬Ḻ嫱⮵㭼炻ⶴℨ⺢䩳傉ㅱ湇䘬㔀ḳ䎮婾⮰叿炻㍸ὃᷕ⚳㔀ḳ䎮婾⺢㥳忶䦳 䘬婾徘ˤ
ℐ㔯䷥↮ℕ䪈炻椾䪈䵺婾炻憅⮵䞼䨞≽㨇冯䚖䘬ˣ⇵Ṣ䞼䨞ㆸ㝄ˣ䞼䨞⮵尉 冯䭬䔯冯㔯䌣䇰㛔䚠斄⓷柴炻ẍ⍲䞼䨞㕡㱽冯㝞㥳忚埴㍊妶⍲婒㖶炻ẍ㬌⊦≺↢
91 㸗】㭼(Arnold J. Toynbee炻1889-1975)烊昛㙱㜿嬗烉˪㬟⎚䞼䨞˫炷A Study of History炸炻炷⎘⊿烉 怈㳩↢䇰䣦炻1993 ⸜炸炻枩 91ˤ
24
婾㔯䘬⣏天ˤ
䫔Ḵ䪈婾徘䫮姀橼䘬⭂佑冯˪⮹⭌Ⱉ䫮⎊˫䘬㔀ḳ䳸㥳ˣ≽㨇冯䩳⟜ˤ䫮 侭娵䁢炻㫚↮㜸㔀ḳ㔯㛔椾⃰ㅱ㖶彐℞㔀ḳ㔯橼炻ㇵ傥㸾䡢㌴㎉℞㔀ḳ䈡⽝炻忚 侴⮵℞䚠斄㔀ḳ⓷柴傥㚱⇅㬍䘬⇌⭂冯Ḯ妋ˤ⍰㛔婾忳䓐䘬ℑᾳᷣ天㔯㛔˪⮹⭌
Ⱉ䫮⎊˫㗗䓙䫮姀橼㕡⺷叿徘侴ㆸ䘬䫮姀㔯栆烊˪䓚ḁ∑妨˫⇯㗗䫮姀橼⮷婒ˤ 侴ˬ䫮姀橼˭冯ˬ䫮姀⮷婒˭⛐␥⎵冯⭂佑ᶲ㚱ᶵ⎴㤪⾝炻ṇ暨慸㶭ˤ⚈㬌㛔䪈 㫚⃰⭂佑ᷕ⚳䫮姀橼㳩嬲ˣ⎵佑冯㔯栆䈡⽝烊℞㫉炻憅⮵˪⮹⭌Ⱉ䫮⎊˫䫮姀 橼䈡⽝䘬㔀ḳ䳸㥳≈ẍ↮㜸炻ẍ㬌㚜≈㖶䡢˪⮹⭌Ⱉ䫮⎊˫ἄ䁢䫮姀橼䘬㔯栆 䈡岒ˤ᷎㍊妶㔀ḳ≽㨇⍲㔀ḳ䩳⟜炻奨䚳傉ㅱ湇ẍỽ䧖ン⹎㑘⮓˪⮹⭌Ⱉ䫮⎊˫炻 㚱≑䎮妋℞⮵⎬䧖㔯橼䘬㔀ḳ㤪⾝ˤ
䫔ᶱ䪈⇯⺢㥳傉ㅱ湇㔀ḳ䎮婾冯㔀ḳ㈡姽ˤ⮯㔋句⛐˪⮹⭌Ⱉ䫮⎊˫⎬䭯 䪈ᷕ䘬㔀ḳ奨溆冯䎮婾忚埴㡛䎮炻᷎⮯䚠斄䎮婾↮⎚⁛㔀ḳˣ⮷婒㔀ḳˣ㇚㚚㔀 ḳ䲣䴙⊾⏰䎦炻ⶴℨ傥⺢䩳Ⱄ㕤傉ㅱ湇䘬㔀ḳ⮰婾ˤ
䫔⚃䪈⮵˪䓚ḁ∑妨˫忚埴㔀ḳ䞼䨞炻↮㜸∝ἄ侭䘬㔀ḳ≽㨇⍲㔀ḳ侭䩳⟜烊
᷎忂忶⮵˪䓚ḁ∑妨˫ᷕ㔀ḳ夾奺䘬忳䓐ˣ⍾㛸⍇⇯⍲㔀ḳ桐㟤䫱⇾㜸炻⯽䎦↢
傉ㅱ湇⮷婒㔀ḳ䘬䌐䈡⿏ˤ᷎⮯㬌ἄ䁢℞㔀ḳ䎮婾⮵䄏䘬⮎嶸ὅ㒂ˤ
䫔Ḽ䪈⇯㗗⮵傉ㅱ湇㔀ḳ䎮婾冯∝ἄ⮎嶸忚埴姽晚ˤ⮵㭼婾徘˪⮹⭌Ⱉ䫮
⎊˫ᷕ䘬㔀ḳ䎮婾冯˪䓚ḁ∑妨˫⮷婒∝ἄ攻㔀ḳ奨⾝冯ㇳ㱽忳䓐䘬ㅱ⎰⍲᷾忽烊
᷎忚ᶨ㬍㍊妶傉ㅱ湇㔀ḳ䎮婾㔯⬠⎚ᶲ䘬シ佑冯₡ῤ⍲㔀ḳ䎮婾ᷕ䘬旸⇞冯ᶵ 嵛ˤ
䫔ℕ䪈䳸婾炻䵄⎰婒㖶㛔婾䞼䨞⼿ㆸ㝄⍲㛔䞼䨞㛒Ἦ⎗攳䘤ᷳ嗽ˤ
25
26