4.4. 研究方法
4.4.4. 分類區別分析結果(Discrim analysis)
依表4.14 顯示，未加入策略聯盟群組(not joint)之航空公司有 2 家被誤歸類於加入 聯略聯盟群組(join)；加入策略聯盟群組(join)之航空公司有 2 家被誤歸類於未加入聯略 聯盟群組(not joint)。依表 4.18 顯示，交叉效度歸類結果之整歸類錯誤率為 0.0985，表 歸類效果頗佳。
表4.17. Number of observations and percent classified into Join From Join 0 (not joint) 1 (join) Total
0 35 2 37
94.59 5.41 100
1 8 48 93
14.29 85.71 100
Total 43 50 93
46.24 53.76 100
Priors 0.5 0.5
表4.18. Error count estimates for Join 0 (not joint) 1 (join) Total Rate 0.0541 0.1429 0.0985
Priors 0.5 0.5
五、結論與建議 5.1. 結論
1. 因航空客運業的投資成本很大，重資產經營的產業，又受限國家及國際間諸多法 令約束，進入門檻相較其他服務業為高，所以進入此產業的企業較少，屬於寡占 市場，惟受全球經濟波動影響甚鉅，資產投入資金也相對較高，所以平均獲利其 實不高。
2. 在逐步回歸區別分析的結果中，七項變數資產報酬率、資產、機隊、可售機位公 里數、載客公里收益率、營收、載客人數與策略聯盟相關性顯著。並該七項變數 分別代表意義為經營績效、營運管理能力及航空公司規模，故依分析結果顯示策 略聯盟對航空公司績效具有正向影響力。
3. 由十家航空公司 11 年年報資料中財務數據及營運指標分析，可看出較具國際化 之航空公司，如新加坡及國泰航空公司表現營運績效較佳，亦已加入策略聯盟。
4. 由分析航空客運業績效表現結果顯示，航空客運業為寡占市場，所以每家航空公 司都具有一定的品牌知名度，航空公司獲利重要因素之一即為營運管理能力。
5. 航空客運業在國際線的營運上競爭激烈，回歸結果顯示規模變數顯著的情況下，
可以推論「大者恆大」，航空公司規模愈大對競爭及營收愈有利。所以公司資產、
規模大小與營運範圍，對公司競爭力都是重要的因素，也因此需要經由加入策略 聯來強化企業本身的競爭優勢。
6. 至目前止，台灣兩大航空公司在共用班號方面，中華航空與達美航空、捷克航空、
越南航空、大韓航空及印尼航空單向或雙向合作；長榮航空與全日空航空、大陸 航空合作，然均未加入三大聯盟。兩大航空可考量自身因素，包括與合作夥伴市 場是否重疊及過去合作經驗，選擇適當之聯盟，協商加入之可行性，以強化巿場 競爭力。
5.2. 研究限制
1. 因係為本研究台灣籍航空公司加入聯盟是否對企業績效有所助益，故範圍僅以亞 洲地區較大型之十家國際型航空公司為樣本，研究結果適用性僅限於亞洲區航空 巿場。
2. 本研究未將時間及全球影響航空客運業能否獲利的因素納入，如：各地社會安全 事件等。因此，若國際間若遇其他重大事件，或與本研究時間區間因素相去甚遠
時，亦無法以本研究結果推論之。
3. 各加入策略聯盟之航空公司，所選擇合作之項目及條件等資料取得困難，故無法 深入分析航空公司具何種能力或條件時，如何選擇聯盟合作之項目。
4. 區別分析可分析策略聯盟與變數間之相關性，但無法證明因果關係。
5.3. 研究建議
1. 後續研究可以增加亞洲地區之外的航空公司為樣本，檢驗本研究結果推論至世界 各洲之適用性，以得較宏觀的見解。
2. 深入研究航空公司加入策略聯盟後，績效及各變數產生變化之情形，以及發生變 化之因素。
3. 未來可考量將時間、景氣、油價、全球各地社會安全等因素納入，以更準確的分 析航空客運業之績效。
4. 高油價時代造成低成本航空公司的興起，因未加入航空聯盟，在策略上行銷實務 操作上似彈性空間較大，未來可考量將兩者經營績效予以分析比較。
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