建議 - 結論與建議 - 時空不確定性因素之選址決策分析

第五章結論與建議

5.2 建議

依據研究經驗與心得，建議以下五個研究重點方向，供進行後續研究時參考。

1. 可進一步分析風速與風向的組合關係對衝擊方向的影響，改善風玫瑰圖僅表達出衝擊次數卻無法說明衝擊大小的缺點。

2. 探討方向性風險模糊化的可行性。利用歸屬函數將人口密度及污染物擴散濃度加以純量化，再計算出各方向之潛在風險，有可能可更有效的解決不確定性問題。

3. 探討應用本研究所建立方法評比非法棄置場址整治的優先順序。由於國內的整治資源並不充裕，依此方法評比出整治順序，可使資源更有效利用。

4. 由於所採用的分析方法較專業，可能不易於與民眾或非專業人士溝通，

後續可考量發展簡單易懂的指標或示意圖來表達方向性風險。以利於決策者及民眾更容易了解可能受到的方向性衝擊大小。

5. 可考量應用類似方法評估工廠或工業區污染排放對鄰近地區所造成之衝擊，並結合健康保險局民眾醫療記錄，或許可研發出鑑識污染來源的方法。

6. 本研究之方向性風險中有關風向的推估採用 Diagnostic 模式中較常用的 DRAXLER(Draxler, 1979)推估場址的風速風向，該方法以場址與測站相對方向及距離推估風向風速向量。唯對於地形變化較大的區域而 言，此方法可能不太適合，建議可採用 Prognostic 型式(Kim et al., 2000;

Baggott et al., 2006; 伍, 92 年)方法來推估。

參考文獻

丁志堅，八十六年，運用馬可夫鍊模式度量土地利用變遷之研究，國立台灣大學地理學研究所碩士論文。

伍哲廷，九十二年，風場推估對ISC3空氣品質模式模擬影響分析

，

交大環工所碩士論文。

林于尊，九十年，農地重劃景觀生態變遷之研究，臺大農業工程研究所碩士論文。

林宏嶽，八十八年，廢棄物掩埋場選址及清運分區空間模式，交大環工所博士論文。

林素貞，七十七年，”德爾菲技巧與階層分析方法之應用”，環境影響評估講習教材及參考資料第二冊，中華民國工程環境學會編。

林瑞晉，九十一年，應用貝氏方法配置空氣採樣點以降低不確定性，國立台灣大學環境工程研究所碩士論文。

郭壽吉，八十三年，輔助掩埋場選址電腦化系統，國立交通大學環境工程研究所碩士論文。

曾玉津，九十年，掩埋場模糊多準則決策選址法之研究，台大環境工程研究所碩士論文。

張景舜，九十三年，健康保險市佔率之研究--馬可夫鏈方法之應用，政大風險管理與保險研究所碩士論文。

環境保護署環境品質資料倉儲，九十八年，網址

http://edb.epa.gov.tw/envdb2/

。

Abdul-Wahab, S. A.(2006). "The role of meteorology on predicting SO₂ concentrations around a refinery: A case study from Oman." Ecological

Modelling, 197, pp. 13-20.

Ainslie, B. and Jackson, P. L. (2009). "The use of an atmospheric dispersion model to determine influence regions in the Prince George, B.C. airshed from the burning of open wood waste piles." Journal of Environmental

Management, 90, pp. 2393-2401.

Al-Jarrah, O. and Abu-Qdais, H. (2006), "Municipal solid waste landfill siting using intelligent system." Waste Management, 26, pp. 299-306.

Allanach, W. C. Jr. (1992). "Regional Landfill Planning and Siting." Public

Works, December, pp. 48-50.

Baggott, S., Cai, X., McGregor, G., and Harrison, R. M. (2006). "Model simulation of meteorology and air quality during the summer PUMA intensive measurement campaign in the UK West Midlands conurbation."

Science of the Total Environment, 360, pp. 26-42.

Beer, T. and Ricci, P.F. (1999). "A Quantitative Risk Assessment Method based on Population and Exposure Distributions Using Australian Air Quality Data." Environ. Int., 25, pp. 887-898.

Booty, W.G., Lam, D.C.L., Wong, I.W.S., and Siconolfi, P. (2001). "Design and implementation of an environmental decision support system."

Environmental Modelling & Software, 16, pp. 453-458.

Cai, G. Q., Qiu, X., Su, T. C., and Lin, Y. K. (1996). "Markov process modeling of groundwater contamination problems." Probabilistic

Engineering Mechanices, 11, pp. 243-250.

Chai, X. L., Takayuki, S., Cao, X. Y., Guo, Q., and Zhao, Y. C. (2007).

"Characteristics and mobility of heavy metals in an MSW landfill:

Implications in risk assessment and reclamation." Journal of Hazardous

Materials, 144, pp. 485-491.

Charnpratheep, K., Zhou, Q., and Garner, B. (1997). "Preliminary landfill site screening using fuzzy geographic information systems." Waste

Management and Research, 15, pp.197-215.

Cheng, H., Yang, Z., and Chan, C. W. (2003). "An expert system for decision support of municipal water pollution control." Engineering Applications

of Artificial Intelligence, 16, pp. 159-166.

Coutinho, M., Ribeiro, C., Pereira, M. and Borrego, C (1998). “ Simulation of the plume emitted by a municipal waste incinerator located in the

Madeiraisland.” 9th Int. Conf. on Harmonisation within Atmospheric

Damousis, I. G. and Dokopoulos, P. (2001). "A Fuzzy Expert System for The Forecasting of Widn Speed and Power Generation in Wind Farms." Power Industry Computer Applications,. PICA 2001. Innovative Computing for Power - Electric Energy Meets the Market.” 22nd IEEE Power

Engineering Society International Conference, pp. 63 - 69.

Draxler, R.R. (1979). "Modeling the Results of Two Recent Mesoscale

Dispersion Experiments." Atmospheric Environment, 13, pp. 1523-1533.

Durmusoglu, E., Taspinar, F., and Karademir. A. (2010). "Health risk

assessment of BTEX emissions in the landfill environment." Journal of

Hazardous Materials, 176, pp. 870-877.

Eggleton, A. E. J. (1969). "The chemical composition of atmospheric aerosols on Tees-side and its relation to visibility." Atmospheric Environment, 3, pp.355-372.

Enea, M. and Salemi, G. (2001). "Fuzzy approach to the environmental impact evaluation." Ecological Modelling, 135, pp. 131-147.

ERSI (1996a). Using ArcView GIS. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc.

ESRI (1996b). Using the arcview spatial analyst. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc.

Fila, G., Donatelli, M., and Bellocchi, G., (2006). "PTF Indicator: an

IRENE_DLLbased application to evaluate estimates from pedotransfer functions by integrated indices." Environmental Modelling & Software, 21(1), pp. 107-110.

Fleming, G., van der Merwe, M., and McFerren, G. (2007). "Fuzzy expert systems and GIS for cholera health risk prediction in southern Africa."

Environmental Modelling & Software, 22(4), pp. 442-448.

Gupta, R., Kewalramani, M. A., and Ralegaonkar, R. V. (2003).

"Environmental Impact Analysis Using Fuzzy Relation for Landfill Siting." J. Urban Planning & Development, pp.121-139.

Guttorp, P. (1995). Stochastic Modeling of Scientific Data. Chapman &Hall London, 2-6 Boundary Row, London SE1 8HN, UK.

Ham, R. K. (1993). "Overview and Implications of U.S. Sanitary Landfill Practice." Air & Waste, February, 43, pp. 187-190.

Hamed, M. M., Conte, J. P., and Bedient, P. B. (1995). "Probabilistic Screening Tool for Ground-Water Contamination Assessment" Journal of

Environmental Engineering, 121(11), pp. 767-775.

Honaganahalli, P. S. and Seiber, J. N. (2000). "Measured and predicted airshed concentrations of methyl bromide in an agricultural valley and

applications to exposure assessment." Atmospheric Environment, 34, pp.

3511-3523.

Huang, C. (1996). "Fuzzy Risk Assessment of Urban natural hazards." Fuzzy

Sets and Systems, 83(2), pp. 271-282.

Hung, M. L., Wu, S. Y., Chen, Y. C., Shih, H. C., Yu, Y. H., and Ma, H. W.

(2009). "The Health Risk Assessment of Pb and Cr leachated from fly ash monolith landfill." Journal of Hazardous Materials, 172, pp. 316-323.

Hushon, J. M. (1987). "Expert System for Environmental Problems."

Environmental Science and Technology, 21(9), pp. 838-841.

Iliadis, L.S. (2005). "A decision support system applying an integrated fuzzy model for long-term forest fire risk estimation." Environmental Modelling

& Software, 20 (5), pp. 613-621.

Jain, S. (1992). Monte Carlo Simulations of Disordered systems. World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Julius, A. A., Halász, Á ., Sakar, M. S., Rubin, H., Kumar, V. and Pappas, G. J.

(2008). “Stochastic Modeling and Control of Biological Systems: The Lactose Regulation System of Escherichia Coli.” Special Issue on Systems

Biology, pp. 51-65

Kao, J. J., Chen, W. Y., and Lin, H. Y. (1996). "Network Expert Geographic Information System for Landfill Siting." Journal of Computing in Civil

Engineering ASCE, 10(4), 307-317.

Kao, J. J., Lin, H. Y., and Chen, W. Y. (1997). "Network Geographic

Information System for Landfill Siting." Waste Management & Research,

Kao, J.J., Lin, H.J., and Chen, W.Y. (1997). "Network geographic information system for landfill sitting." Waste Manage Res. , 15, pp. 239-253.

Karimi, A. A. (1983). "Studies of emission and control of volatile organices in hazardous waste landfills." Ph D. Dissertion, University of Southern California, Los Angeles.

Keramitsoglou, I., Cartalis, C., and Kiranoudis, C.T. (2006). "Automatic identification of oil spills on satellite images." Environmental Modelling

& Software, 21(5), pp. 640-652.

Klir, J. G., and Folger, A. T. (1988). Fuzzy sets, Uncertainty, and Information.

Prentice-Hall International Editions.

Kontos, T. D., Komilis, D. P., Constantinos, P., and Halvadakis, C. P. (2005).

"Siting MSW landfills with a spatial multiple criteria analysis methodology." Waste Management, 25, pp. 818-832.

Kress, N., Herut, B., and Galil, B.S. (2004). "Sewage sludge impact on

sediment quality and benthic assemblages off the Mediterranean coast of Israel-a long-term study." Marine Environmental Research, 57, pp.

213-233.

Leao, S., Bishop, I., and Evans, D. (2004). "Spatial-temporal model for demand and allocation of waste landfills in growing urban regions." Computers,

Environmental and Urban Systems, 28, pp. 353-385.

Lein, K. J. (1989). "The Assessment of Land Use/Land Cover Impacts on Local Climate." Journal of Environmental Management, 28, pp. 157-174.

Li, J., Huang, G. H., Zeng, G., Maqsood, I., and Huang Y. (2007). "An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for risk assessment of groundwater contamination." Journal of Environmental Management, 82, pp. 173-188.

Li, Z. and Shugui, D. (2007). "Application of Markov model to environmental fate of phenanthrene in Lanzhou Reach of Yellow River." Chemosphere, 67, pp. 1296-1299.

Lober, J. D. and Green, D. P. (1994). "NIMBY or NIABY: A Logit Model of Opposition to Solid-Waste-Disposal Facility Siting." Journal of

Environmental Management, 40, pp. 33-50

Lorber, M., Eschenroeder, A., and Robinson, R. (2000). "Testing the USA EPA's ISCST-Version 3 model on dioxins: a comparison of predicted and observed air and soil concentrations." Atmospheric Environment, 34, pp.

3995-4010.

Lytwynyshyn, G. R., Zimmerman, R. E., Flynn, N. W., Wingender, R. and Olivieri V. (1982). Landfill methane recovery part II: gas characterization

Technical Report. Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois,

ANL-CNSV-TM-118.

Mèndez, A. P., Ridao, Á . R., and Toro, M. Z. (2008). “Environmental diagnosis and planning actions for municipal waste landfills in Estado Lara

(Venezuela).” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 12, pp.

752-771.

Ma, W., Wang, X., Zhang, Y., and Yu, Q. (2008). "The Application of Expert System to the Screening of Atmospheric Environmental Impact from Comprehensive Road Traffic Planning in Shanghai." Fuzzy Systems and

Knowledge Discovery, 2008. FSKD '08. Fifth International Conference,

pp. 636-642.

Ma, H., Liu L., and Chen T. (2008). "Assessment Model Based on Markov Chain." Fifth International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge

Discovery, pp. 602-605.

Ma, Y., Peng, Y. Z., Wang, X. L., and Wang, S. Y. (2006). "Intelligent control aeration and external carbon addition for improving nitrogen removal."

Environmental Modelling & Software, 21(6), pp. 821-828.

Makropoulos, C.K., and Butler, D. (2005). "A neurofuzzy spatial decision support system for pipe replacement prioritisation." Urban Water Journal, 2(3), pp. 141-150.

Mari M., Nadal M., Schuhmacher M., and Domingo J. L. (2009). "Exposure to heavy metals and PCDD/Fs by the population living in the vicinity of a hazardous waste landfill in Catalonia, Spain: Health risk assessment."

Marsili-Libelli, S. (2004). "Fuzzy prediction of the algal blooms in the Orbetello lagoon." Environmental Modelling & Software, 19(9), pp.

799-802.

McBean, EA, Rovers, FA, and Farquhar, GJ. (1995). "Solid Waste Landfill Engineering and Design." Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

Minkoff, A. S. (1993). "A Markov Decision Model and Decomposition heuristic for Dynamicvehicle dispatching." Operations Research, 41(1), pp. 77-90.

Muller, M. R. and Middleon, J. (1994). "A Markov Model of Land-use Change in the Niagara region, Ontario, Canada." Landscape Ecology, 9(2), pp.

151-157.

Murano, K., Mukai, H., Hatakeyama, S., Oishi, O., Utsunomiya, A., and Shimohara, T. (1998). "Wet deposition of ammonium and atmospheric distribution of ammonia and particulate ammonium in Japan."

Environmental Pollution, 102, S1, pp. 321-326.

Nasiri, F. and Huang, G. (2008). "A fuzzy decision aid model for environmental performance assessment in waste recycling."

Environmental Modelling & Software, 23. pp. 677-689.

Rahman, A. (2008). "A GIS based DRASTIC model for assessing groundwater vulnerability in shallow aquifer in Aligarh, India." Applied Geography, 28, pp. 32-53.

Rama Krishna, T.V.B.P.S., Reddy, M.K., Reddy, R.C., and Singh, R.N. (2005).

"Impact of an industrial complex on the ambient air quality: Case study using a dispersion model." Atmospheric Environment, 39, pp. 5395-5407.

Rapti-Caputo, D., Sdao, F., and Masi, S. (2006). "Pollution risk assessment based on hydrogeological data and management of solid waste landfills."

Engineering Geology, 85, pp. 122-131.

Raba, C. F. (1989). "Landfill planning and siting." Current Municipal Problems, 15(23), pp. 326-337.

Reiss R. and Griffin, J. (2006). "A probabilistic model for acute bystander exposure and risk assessment for soil fumigants." Atmospheric

Environment, 40, pp. 3548-3560.

Repa, E. W. (1992). EPA promulgates - long awaited landfill rules. National solid wastes management association, Washington, D. C., U.S.A.

Roberts, E. A, Sheley, R. L., and Lawrcncc, R. L. (2004). "Using Sampling and Inverse Distance Weighted Modeling for Mapping Invasive Plants,

Western North." American Naturalist, 64(3), pp. 312-323.

Ross, T.J. (2004). Fuzzy Logic with Applications. 2nd ed. John Willey and Sons.

Saghafian, B. (2009). "Regional hydrologic mapping of flows in stream networks." International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and

Geoinformation, 11, pp. 317-323.

Saral, A., Demir, S., and Yıldız, Ş. (2009). “Assessment of odorous VOCs released from a main MSW landfill site in Istanbul-Turkey via a

modelling approach.” Journal of Hazardous Materials, 168, pp. 338-345.

Schauberger, G., Piringer, M., and Petz, E. (2006). "Odour episodes in the vicinity of livestock buildings: A qualitative comparison of odour

complaint statistics with model calculations." Agriculture, Ecosystems and

Environment, 114, pp. 185-194.

Schuhmacher, M., Domingo, J. L., Hagberg, J., Lindstrőm, G., (2004).

“PCDD/F and non-ortho PCB concentrations in adipose tissue of individuals living in the vicinity of a hazardous waste incinerator.”

Chemosphere, 57, 357–364.

Sener, B., Lütfi Süzen, M.L., and Doyuran, V. (2006). "Landfill site selection by using geographical information systems." Environmental Geology 49, pp. 376-388.

Shen, T. T., Nelson, T. P. and Sehmidt, C. E. (1990). "Assessment and control of VOC emissions from waste disposal facilities." CRC Critical Reviews

in Environmental Control, 20, pp 43-76.

Shirvaikar, V. V., Kapoor, K. K., and Sharma, L. W. (1969). "A finite plume model based on wind persistence [sic] for use in environmental dose

Siddiqui, M.Z. (1996). "Landfill siting using Geographic Information Systmes:

a demonstration." Journal of Environmental Engineering, 122(6), pp.

515-523.

Sincero, A. P., Gregoria, A. and Sincero, G. A. (1996). Environmental

Engineering: A Design Approach. Prentice-Hall Inc.

Singer, I. A. and Nagel, C. M. (1970). " Variability of wind direction within the United States" Nucl. Safety, 11, pp. 34-39.

Siqueira Campos Boclin, A., and Mello, R. (2006). A decision-support method for environmental impact assessment using a fuzzy logic approach, Ecol.

Econ., 58, 170-181.

Sivacoumar, R., Bhanarkar, A.D., Goyal, S.K., Gadkari, S.K., and Aggarwal, A.L. (2001). "Air pollution modeling for an industrial complex and model performance evaluation." Environmental Pollution, 111, pp. 471-477.

Slack, R. J., Gronow, J. R., Hall, D. H., and Voulvoulis, N. (2007). "Household hazardous waste disposal to landfill: Using LandSim to model leachate migration." Environmental Pollution, 146, pp. 501-509.

Sumathi, V.R. (2006). Perspective development plan for solid waste

management in Pondicherry. Ph.D. Thesis, Centre for Environmental

Studies, Anna University, Chennai, India.

Tasdemir, Y., Vardar, N., Odabasi, M., and Holsen, T. M. (2004).

"Concentrations and gas/particle partitioning of PCBs in Chicago."

Environmental Pollution. 131. pp. 35-44.

Tetteh, I. K., Frempong, E., and Awuah, E. (2004). "An analysis of the environmental health impact of the Barekese Dam in Kumasi, Ghana."

Journal of Environmental Management, 72, pp. 189-194.

Thanh, B. D. and Lefevre, T. (2000). "Assessing health impacts of air pollution from electricity generation: the case of Thailand." Environmental Impact

Assessment Review, 20, pp. 137-158.

UNEP (2010). United Nations Environment Programme Division of Technology, Industry and Economics,

http://www.unep.or.jp/ietc/ESTdir/PUBMSW/index.asp.

USEPA. (1985). DRASTIC: A standard system for evaluating groundwater

potential using hydrogeological settings. Ada, Oklahoma WA/EPA Series;

1985, p. 163.

USEPA . (1987). DRASTIC: A Standardized System for Evaluating Ground

Water Pollution Potential Using Hydrogeologic Settings.

EPA/600/2-87/035.

USEPA. (1995a). User's Guide for the Industrial Source

Complex(ISC3)Dispersion Models; Volume I – User Instructions.

EPA-454/B-95-003a; North California: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

USEPA. (1995b). User's Guide for the Industrial Source

Complex(ISC3)Dispersion Models; Volume II- Discription of Model Algorithms. EPA-454/B-95-003b; North California: U.S. Environmental

Protection Agency.

USEPA. (2009). Support Center for Regulatory Air Models, http://www.epa.gov/scram001/dispersion_alt.htm#isc3.

Vassiliadou, I., Papadopoulos, A., Costopoulou, D, Vasiliadou, S., Christoforou, S., and Leondiadis, L. (2009). "Dioxin contamination after an accidental fire in the municipal landfill of Tagarades, Thessaloniki, Greece."

Chemosphere, 74, pp. 879-884.

Ünlü, K. (1994). “Assessing Risk of Ground-Water Pollution From

Land-Disposed Wastes.” Journal of Environmental Engineering, 120(6), pp. 1578-1597.

Vatalis, K. and Manoliadis, O. (2002). "A two-level multicriteria DSS for

landfill site selection using GIS: case study n western Macedonia." Greece.

J. Geogr. Inform. Decision Anal., 6 (1), pp. 49-56.

Warmerdam, J. M. and Jacobs, T. L. (1994). "Fuzzy Set Approach to Routing and Siting Hazardous Waste Operations." Information Sciences, 2, pp.

1-14.

Weigand, H., Totsche, K. U., Huwe, B., and Kögel-Knabner, I. (2001). “PAH

spatial variability of soil properties and PAH levels.” Geoderma, 10, pp.

371-389.

Wenger, B. R. and Rong, Y. (1987). "Two Fuzzy Set Models for Comprehensive Environmental Decision-Making." Journal of

Environmental Management, 25, pp. 167-180.

Wey, W-M. (2005). "An integrated expert system/operations research approach for the optimization of waste incinerator siting problems."

Knowledge-Based Systems, 18, pp. 267-278.

Wichmann, H., Kolb M., Jopke, P., Schmidt, C., Alawi, M., and Bahadir, M.

(2006). "Assessment of The Environmental Impact of Landfill Sites With Open Combustion Located in Arid Regions by Combined Chemical and Ecotoxicological Studies." Chemosphere, 65, 300, pp. 1778-1783.

Wood, J. A. and Porter, M. L. (1986). "Hazardous pollutants in class II landfills." Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, 37, pp 609-615.

Zadeh, L. A. (1994). "Fuzzy Logic Can Help GIS Cope with Reality." GIS

world, pp. 50-53.

Zadeh, L.A. (1965). "Fuzzy sets." Information and Control, 8 (3), pp. 338-353.

Zamorano, M, Molero, E, Hurtado, A, Grindlay, A, and Ramos, A. (2008).

"Evaluation of a municipal landfill site in Southern Spain with GIS-aided methodology." Journal of Hazardous Materials, 160, pp. 473-481.

Zeiss, C. and Lefsrud, L. (1996). "Making or breaking waste facility siting successes with a siting framework." Environment Management, 20(1), pp.

53-64.

Zyma, R. (1990). "Siting considerations for resource recovery facilities."

Public Works, 121, pp. 84-86.

附錄 A 模糊馬可夫鏈方法模擬計算應用程式程式碼

1.「資料整理」程式碼：主要用來排序及整合各測站資料

Sub data_rearrange() '

' data_rearrange Macro

'這是執行資料重整的程式!將原來分割不同表格的資料整合在一張工作表上 x = 3

For k = 3 To 39 For i = 2 To 13

Sheets("GW3").Select Cells(k, i).Select