（改自EEA，2009，p.80）
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ETS 的第一階段中，EUAs 是依照既有狀態而無償配給的（grandfathering）。但 是在進入第二階段後則將各國第一階段的排放配額縮減，進而使各國境內的減 額（EEA，2009）。所以當不涉及 CERs/ERUs 的使用時，EU ETS 被視為歐盟 境內減排的機制並不會引起質疑。因為 EUAs 是歐盟境內基於 EU ETS 排放上 限所發放的排放額度，所以不同減排經營者間 EUAs 的移轉並不會影響到歐盟 境內減排目標的達成。但是當在EU ETS 中使用 CERs/ERUs 的成分越大時，EU ETS 所帶來的境內減排效果就會打越大的折扣。在 EU ETS 的第一階段（2005-2007），因為規定的排放上限多過於最後 實際的排放，所以 EUAs 的價格在 2006 年後開始暴跌，因而導致 CERs 和
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會（European Commission）認為，CERs/ERUs 的利用應該是用來補足而不是取 代境內減排的行動，允許使用太多的 CERs/ERUs 來達成減排目標將會有害於境 內減排的投入。所以一項新的規定出現在 EU ETS 的第二階段，就是各國在其 所提出的國家分配計畫（National Allocation Plan，NAP）中境內減排經營者利 用 CERs/ERUs 的數量被限制了上限。不過在另一方面，代表各國利益的歐盟理 事會（Council of the European Union）與代表民間力量的歐洲議會（European Parliament）則希望給予使用 CERs/ERUs 較大的空間，所以支持在各國境內減 排經營者利用 CERs/ERUs 的數量上採用較高的上限（Rix & Paul，2008）。如 表 VIII 資料所示，這個上限最後隨著各個國家狀況的不同而有差別，而 EU-15‧
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EU ETS 的實行。圖 16 中的資料顯示，依據 2005 年的資料，EEA 首次在其 2007 年的報告中做出 EU ETS 在 2010 年可能產生的預期減排效果，其中各國提 供之數據內計算到的效果相對基準年標準為 2.2%，未計算到的效果為基準年標 準的 1.2%，所以預期在 2010 年的 EU ETS 減排效果合計為基準年標準的 3.4%。而 EEA 在 2008 年根據 2006 年資料所做成的報告中對於 EU ETS 於 2010 年的預期效果之預測一樣維持在基準年標準的3.3%。在 2008 年進入 EU ETS 第 二階段後，新的溫室氣體排放上限被制定，依據表 IX 中 EEA 2009 年報告的資 料計算，EU ETS 第二階段將再為 EU-15 貢獻基準年標準 2%的減排效果。綜合 觀之，EU ETS 第一階段與第二階段應該會在 2005 年到 2012 年的實行期間造成 超過基準年標準 5.3%的減排效果，使 EU-15 的溫室氣體排放量在不考慮其他條 件變動下，從 2005 1.8%下降到 2012 年相當基準年標準-7.1%。
圖 23 EU-15 實際減排與 BAU 軌跡（2009）
（資料來源：UNFCCC，2007，n.d.b；EEA，2002，2007，2008，2009。
作者整理繪製）
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雖然 EU ETS 可能為 EU-15 的溫室氣體減排產生極大的貢獻，但是如同 前文所述，EU ETS 所造成的減排效果並不能夠單純的被視為 EU-15 境內減排 的成果。在 EU ETS 第一階段中，EU-15 境內的減排經營者可以向 EU-12 境內 的減排經營者取得價格極低的EUAs 以抵消過高的溫室氣體排放。而在 EU ETS 第二階段中，這樣的情況依然可能繼續出現，只是隨著 EUAs 數量的減少，其 價格不會再像第一階段中一樣那麼便宜。不過 EU-15 的境內減排者還有另外的 選擇，就是利用CDM 或 JI 項目從歐盟境外取得 CERs 或 ERUs 來抵消其過高的 溫室氣體排放量。而這樣的情形也已經在 EEA 2009 年報告中所載 2008 年的資 料上顯現出來了。
對此，歐盟提出 EU ETS 中使用 CERs/ERUs 上限的規定，希望促使境內 減排措施真正被執行，以符合環境保護的目標。然而，此規定的上限卻仍舊非 常寬鬆，可以說是只具有象徵性意義的初步行動。
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這樣的結果也顯示了在溫室氣體減量議題中，市場機制與價格工具雖然 可以增進總體的利益，但是處理分配的問題卻還是需要國家政策的配合。也就 是說，在面對環境議題時，經濟邏輯與政治邏輯都只能顧及某些面相，要得出 比較完善的處理方式，必須仰賴政治與經濟的相輔相成。
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Equipment technology
transfers only Knowledge technology transfers only
Equipment and knowledge technology
transfers Grand total Annual
emission
reductions Percentage
Annual
reductions Percentage Austria 2,613 2.8% 1,211 1.1%
Luxembourg 3,050 2.7%
5,338 1.5%
Other countries 35,391 37.6% 6,043 19.5% 26,191 22.9%
97,432 27.6%
29,807 26.1%
Total 94,082 100.0% 31,002 100.0% 114,254 100.0%
353,592 100.0%
114,254 100.0%
附註：各欄上方數字以項目數目為基準，下方數字以項目預期年均減排量為基準。
（資料來源：Seres，2008）
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Projects No Technology
Transfer Equipment
Only Knowledge
Only Equipment and knowledge
Average Investment ($/Kt
CO2e/yr)
Energy Efficiency 375 68.33% 16.17% 2.21% 13.94% 160.8 46,979 47.05% 21.83% 2.41% 29.18%
Renewable Energy 1,343 71.33% 10.89% 3.87% 14.44%
98,465 62.93% 14.79% 3.84% 18.03%
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Energy distribution 5 80% 0% 20% 0% 137.39a
320 39% 0% 61% 0%
Fossil fuel switch 72 64% 22% 3% 11% 377.65
23,629 23% 39% 7% 31%
Fugitive 14 71% 0% 14% 14% 137.39a
8,725 95% 0% 4% 1%
Landfill gas 170 33% 23% 11% 34% 31.90
34,411 31% 21% 12% 37%
PFCs 2 50% 0% 50% 0%
166 52% 0% 48% 0%
Reforestation 7 86% 0% 14% 0% 113.62
497 90% 0% 10% 0%
Transport 4 75% 25% 0% 0% 137.39a
295 87% 13% 0% 0%
Grand Total 2,293 61% 13% 4% 22%
376,015 36% 25% 8% 30%
附註：各欄上方數字以項目數目為基準，下方數字以項目預期年均減排量為基準。
a 在缺少某些項目之成本資料下所得之平均數。
b 提昇能源效用類別項目的平均成本。
（資料來源：Seres，2007）
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