研究限制與建議

第五章實證結果與分析

6.2 研究限制與建議

本文主要探討的主題為亞洲國家之公債佔國內生產毛額之比率和經濟成長率間是否存在一非線性關係，然而限於資料蒐集的可行性，主要有以下幾點限制：

1.香港為亞洲四小龍之一，在亞洲地區亦具有一定的影響力及研究價值，理應放入研究樣本中，然因香港一部分的變數之早期資料不易取得，故未將香港納入研究對象中。

2.研究政府公債對投資的影響時，公債對公部門投資及私部門投資的影響程度並不相同，故應依照文獻的方式將投資分類為公部門投資和私部門投資，然由於某些樣本國家只能蒐集到投資總額的資料，為使資料具有一致性的比較標準，本文僅以總投資做為應變數。未來若能獲得完整的樣本資料，應進一步探討公部門與私部門投資的差異性。

3.在選擇主要解釋變數時，由於僅有政府公債毛額為十個樣本國家皆有的資料，為了顧及樣本國家資料的一致性，故以此變數衡量政府公債，然而此數值大致上只能揭露中央政府的負債，無法顯現一國真正債務數額的全貌。舉例而言，中國地方政府債務驚人，然其政府債務毛額佔國內生產毛額的比例官方數據平均值卻僅有百分之十二，與真實情況不太符合。

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附錄

附表 1 公債比與經濟成長率關聯估計(1985-2007 年全樣本期間及全樣本國家)之結果完整表全樣本國家

1985-2007 (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (6) (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (9) (公債比)^1 -0.0151 0.0522 0.1794 0.3621** 0.1979 0.3328** 0.3605** 0.5264*** 0.3434** 0.4697*** 0.5522* 0.6948** 1.3694 2.9563 0.1074 0.4618 -0.1057 0.1175

(0.8587) (0.5621) (0.2701) (0.0123) (0.2882) (0.0195) (0.0289) (0.0014) (0.0426) (0.0058) (0.0770) (0.0232) (0.4224) (0.3392) (0.9040) (0.6006) (0.7014) (0.7429) (公債比)^2 -0.0004 -0.0006 -0.0013* -0.0016** -0.0009 -0.0014** -0.0018** -0.0021** -0.0017* -0.0022** -0.0027* -0.0027* -0.0054 -0.0108 0.0015 -0.0021 0.0001 -0.0010

(0.5148) (0.2706) (0.0821) (0.0189) (0.3367) (0.0477) (0.0493) (0.0160) (0.0518) (0.0110) (0.0746) (0.0817) (0.5243) (0.4086) (0.7474) (0.6544) (0.9547) (0.4705) 投資 -0.0676 0.3524 0.2786 0.2313 0.0622 0.3532* 0.4235 -0.2777 0.3149*

(0.6229) (0.1033) (0.2543) (0.1634) (0.6877) (0.0529) (0.2590) (0.4951) (0.0977)

民間儲蓄 0.2809 1.0855** 1.2198*** 0.9371*** 0.7472*** 1.5008*** 1.6337 1.0863 0.2626 (0.1010) (0.0128) (0.0069) (0.0019) (0.0045) (0.0000) (0.2719) (0.1559) (0.2856) 期初人均所得 -0.2951 -0.7626 -9.6159** -9.6112** -6.6129 -9.2538** 0.3453*** 0.2712*** 0.3487*** 0.2605*** -6.6872 -9.5830*** -2.3113 21.7798 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.7655) (0.4460) (0.0370) (0.0170) (0.1812) (0.0316) (0.0001) (0.0023) (0.0001) (0.0024) (0.1005) (0.0002) (0.9159) (0.5818) (.) (.) (.) (.) 人口成長率 -3.4112 -5.5765 2.8568 -2.0006 -2.9590 -4.2531 -1.7680 -4.0592 -9.4091 -8.5198 -1.6445 -7.0611 -9.2446 -10.4524 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.6724) (0.4889) (0.6643) (0.6586) (0.3829) (0.1481) (0.8078) (0.5521) (0.2025) (0.2279) (0.8557) (0.3945) (0.4270) (0.4808) (.) (.) (.) (.) 人力資本 -0.0464 0.0242 -0.1690 -0.0318 -0.1988 -0.0649 -0.2010** -0.0852 -0.2430*** -0.2020*** -0.1777** -0.0779 0.1940 0.3579 -0.3558** -0.2115* -0.0097 -0.0028

(0.4007) (0.6985) (0.3518) (0.8295) (0.2406) (0.6432) (0.0454) (0.4271) (0.0023) (0.0070) (0.0463) (0.3602) (0.6452) (0.5496) (0.0333) (0.0833) (0.9259) (0.9782) 通貨膨脹率 0.4652 0.3625 0.5764 0.4208 0.6345 0.4028 1.0206 0.9099 0.7521 0.7394 0.7947 0.4843 0.1059 -0.1305 -9.4171 0.0000 5.1058 3.6804

(0.2882) (0.4093) (0.1506) (0.3065) (0.2271) (0.4269) (0.1229) (0.1451) (0.2091) (0.2044) (0.1075) (0.2767) (0.8482) (0.8606) (0.5886) (.) (0.4584) (0.6393) 政府部門規模 -0.3761 -0.4974 -0.0221 0.5616 -0.3903 0.3835 -0.2875 0.3171 -0.7521 -0.3946 -0.5879 -0.4676 -0.6353 -0.3365 -3.8734 -0.4615 0.7545 0.5613

(0.3517) (0.2196) (0.9827) (0.4845) (0.6551) (0.6099) (0.6697) (0.6402) (0.2951) (0.5734) (0.4598) (0.5529) (0.7324) (0.8729) (0.6503) (0.8147) (0.4564) (0.6857) 貿易開放程度 -0.2050 -1.1334 9.1582* 5.9476 11.4763** 3.2948 9.9610* 8.5010* 7.1063* 2.6209 14.4377** 3.3026 26.6468*** 23.1409* 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.8587) (0.3762) (0.0664) (0.2289) (0.0268) (0.2830) (0.0500) (0.0762) (0.0554) (0.5252) (0.0182) (0.3256) (0.0045) (0.0560) (.) (.) (.) (.) 依賴人口比率 -0.2119* -0.1108 -0.2808 -0.6351* -0.6043** -0.6467*** -0.2437 -0.6518* -0.1074 -0.1058 -0.4156 -0.5868** -0.4161 -0.8095 -0.9350 -0.3160 0.0108 -0.1243

(0.0624) (0.3474) (0.3375) (0.0548) (0.0294) (0.0079) (0.4804) (0.0673) (0.5815) (0.5622) (0.2981) (0.0139) (0.8561) (0.7869) (0.1576) (0.4301) (0.9553) (0.5654) 財政紀律 -0.0748 -0.0658 -0.0696 -0.1020 -0.0240 -0.0592 -0.0362 -0.0811 0.0053 -0.0161 -0.0738 -0.0506 -0.0885 -0.1939 -0.2000 -0.0595 0.0075 -0.0338

(0.1401) (0.1748) (0.4215) (0.2643) (0.7771) (0.4774) (0.4956) (0.1093) (0.9263) (0.7599) (0.1642) (0.2974) (0.4344) (0.3466) (0.5570) (0.6019) (0.9657) (0.8458) 利率 -0.4152* -0.3381 -0.0025 -0.0637 -0.5491* -0.4059 0.2773 0.1572 -0.2540 -0.2534 -0.0182 -0.2291 0.4499 0.5025 2.6210 -0.3962 -1.8410 -1.0426

(0.0918) (0.1741) (0.9949) (0.8621) (0.0745) (0.1429) (0.4282) (0.6391) (0.3579) (0.3329) (0.9530) (0.3882) (0.2596) (0.3189) (0.6488) (0.3205) (0.3896) (0.6985)

全樣本國家

Lag(2/3) Lag(2/3) Lag(2/3) Lag(2/3)

括號中的數值為P 值(P-value)，*** p<0.01，** p<0.05，* p<0.1。

應變數為經濟成長率。

DV 代表 dependent variable。

(1)欄為普通最小平方法，(2)(3)欄為固定效果，(4)(5)欄為修正過自我相關的固定效果，(6)欄為工具變數法-兩階段最小平方法(demean)，(7)欄為工具變數法-兩階段最小平方法(difference)，(8)欄為一階差分一般動差法，(9)欄為系統性一般動差法。

附表 2 發展中國家公債比與經濟成長率關聯估計(1985-2007 年全樣本期間)之結果完整表發展中國家

1985-2007 (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (6) (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (9) (公債比)^1 0.2822** 0.2003 0.4324 0.6440 0.4781 0.5357 0.5413* 0.6997** 0.6446*** 0.6676*** 0.2626 0.2367 -1.4127 -1.1083 -0.9489 0.4221 15.2444** 4.2746***

(0.0499) (0.1580) (0.4108) (0.1472) (0.3157) (0.1123) (0.0965) (0.0270) (0.0092) (0.0059) (0.8161) (0.9472) (0.9206) (0.9520) (0.7325) (0.7664) (0.0202) (0.0011) (公債比)^2 -0.0008 -0.0001 -0.0022 -0.0033 -0.0024 -0.0027 -0.0030 -0.0040 -0.0038* -0.0039* 0.0006 0.0062 0.0280 0.0373 0.0072 -0.0021 -0.1011** -0.0268***

(0.5619) (0.9513) (0.6250) (0.3564) (0.5749) (0.3527) (0.2560) (0.1221) (0.0715) (0.0607) (0.9555) (0.7738) (0.8527) (0.8756) (0.7256) (0.8254) (0.0205) (0.0014) 投資 0.5908*** 0.4822 0.5431 0.2519 0.3437 0.5041 1.2180 0.0000 9.4843** 人口成長率 -20.6576 -33.3583 -35.5422 -23.6845 -46.8395 -36.9029 7.2214 9.6338 -24.0181 -12.2439 -7.4967 83.1106 150.0032 231.9229 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.4374) (0.2112) (0.5686) (0.7200) (0.3025) (0.4903) (0.8837) (0.8259) (0.5403) (0.7181) (0.9520) (0.8875) (0.9013) (0.9015) (.) (.) (.) (.) 人力資本 0.2298** 0.3056* 0.3141 -0.0756 0.2492 -0.1673 0.0354 -0.1710 0.0810 -0.2006 0.4784 0.5132 2.0402 2.1363 0.0000 -0.4396 -2.6698** -0.7677***

(0.0479) (0.0533) (0.4942) (0.7610) (0.5390) (0.3337) (0.9000) (0.4537) (0.7506) (0.3271) (0.4533) (0.7898) (0.7764) (0.8167) (.) (0.1397) (0.0284) (0.0022) 通貨膨脹率 0.4542 0.2058 -0.0993 -0.0823 0.2044 0.2777 0.6690 0.5134 1.1153** 0.9272* -0.0798 -0.0333 -0.4918 -0.3130 -0.2178 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.2580) (0.6306) (0.7769) (0.7365) (0.7737) (0.6356) (0.2879) (0.3678) (0.0481) (0.0872) (0.8754) (0.9895) (0.6120) (0.8946) (0.8455) (.) (.) (.) 政府部門規模 -0.7581 -0.4917 -1.8105** -0.7305 -1.4951 -0.4207 -1.4289 -0.5363 -1.2243 -0.2940 -2.9279 -4.6572 -2.5626 -3.3983 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.1164) (0.3011) (0.0176) (0.4266) (0.1987) (0.7009) (0.1910) (0.6362) (0.2018) (0.7820) (0.2374) (0.5385) (0.8787) (0.8977) (.) (.) (.) (.) 貿易開放程度 7.2723 2.1092 0.9113 7.1933 3.3054 5.1869 -2.7635 1.5832 -3.9469 -1.5263 4.4652 25.4359 36.6521 55.9904 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.1402) (0.6862) (0.9120) (0.5006) (0.7687) (0.6196) (0.7364) (0.8329) (0.5580) (0.8062) (0.6798) (0.6508) (0.2531) (0.5373) (.) (.) (.) (.) 依賴人口比率 -0.2986 -0.0574 0.0933 -0.4906 -0.2372 -0.2739 0.0873 -0.4363 -0.2113 -0.3320 0.4837 0.5752 0.2329 1.5767 -0.7304 -0.7288 -9.8739** -2.0961***

(0.1677) (0.8018) (0.8986) (0.5102) (0.2092) (0.3043) (0.9094) (0.5607) (0.5802) (0.3538) (0.7214) (0.8543) (0.9815) (0.9314) (0.1573) (0.1811) (0.0193) (0.0008) 財政紀律 -0.1044* -0.1749*** -0.1461** -0.1679** -0.1199*** -0.1290*** -0.0399 -0.0789 -0.0067 -0.0392 -0.1594** -0.2357 -0.2038 -0.3858 -0.0837 -0.0508 9.2068** 0.2868 (0.0744) (0.0047) (0.0332) (0.0124) (0.0026) (0.0007) (0.5713) (0.2204) (0.9247) (0.5468) (0.0342) (0.4173) (0.4466) (0.5591) (0.7008) (0.1398) (0.0218) (0.6108) 利率 -0.4071 -0.2938 -0.0402 0.0148 -0.3765 -0.3244 0.2857 0.2880 -0.1715 -0.1434 -0.1062 -0.2290 -0.9169 -1.3545 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.1343) (0.2851) (0.8245) (0.9277) (0.1569) (0.2444) (0.3981) (0.3734) (0.5165) (0.5823) (0.8116) (0.8962) (0.8432) (0.8634) (.) (.) (.) (.)

發展中國家

Lag(2/3) Lag(2/3) Lag(2/3) 0.501 括號中的數值為P 值(P-value)，*** p<0.01，** p<0.05，* p<0.1。

應變數為經濟成長率。

DV 代表 dependent variable。

附表 3 先進國家公債比與經濟成長率關聯估計(1985-2007 年全樣本期間)之結果完整表先進國家

1985-2007 (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (6) (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (9) (公債比)^1 -0.2447 0.0894 -0.3570 0.1077 -0.7705* -0.1558 -0.2616 0.2070 -0.3171 -0.1456 -1.2099 -1.2914 0.1927 0.2990 -0.5253 0.0226 0.3421 0.1153

(0.3272) (0.7545) (0.1586) (0.6034) (0.0589) (0.4116) (0.5335) (0.6872) (0.3882) (0.7609) (0.7513) (0.9602) (0.9253) (0.8840) (0.1199) (0.9881) (0.3453) (0.6355) (公債比)^2 0.0012 -0.0007 0.0010 -0.0007 0.0032 0.0008 0.0013 0.0000 0.0006 -0.0002 0.0044 0.0048 -0.0001 -0.0005 0.0020 -0.0001 -0.0024 -0.0012 (0.3636) (0.6449) (0.5125) (0.5996) (0.4558) (0.2903) (0.5525) (0.9917) (0.7329) (0.9220) (0.7630) (0.9790) (0.9933) (0.9549) (0.2835) (0.9860) (0.2798) (0.4953) 投資 -1.1331*** -0.2790 -1.2424*** -0.8970 -1.2619** -0.4342 0.1960 0.0000 0.0000

(0.0009) (0.4288) (0.0062) (0.2436) (0.0424) (0.6369) (0.8313) (.) (.) 民間儲蓄 0.9150* 1.1326 0.9278 1.1469 -0.1875 -0.0370 1.3536 0.0000 0.3653

(0.0586) (0.1550) (0.1731) (0.1565) (0.7712) (0.9959) (0.3031) (.) (0.4325) 期初人均所得 -8.6971*** -6.9910** -16.2411 -23.4326 -9.5266 -13.9929 0.1444 0.1736 0.2022 0.2737** -25.9823 -27.4089 -8.7985 -15.0429 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.0034) (0.0219) (0.4034) (0.2261) (0.2238) (0.1287) (0.3644) (0.2558) (0.1290) (0.0436) (0.6598) (0.8875) (0.7374) (0.5661) (.) (.) (.) (.) 人口成長率 0.9990 -3.5184 7.1002 0.6889 2.7131 1.0372 4.3336 0.8005 -5.8095 -6.6992 9.3714 10.1271 -2.4410 -2.9327 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.9154) (0.7249) (0.2186) (0.8824) (0.8794) (0.7993) (0.7109) (0.9462) (0.5220) (0.4886) (0.5219) (0.9759) (0.8574) (0.8259) (.) (.) (.) (.) 人力資本 -0.3117** 0.0299 0.5028 0.6211 -0.0764 -0.0590 0.4530 0.6650** 0.2049 0.2971 0.4589 0.4762 0.2375 0.2924 -0.0757 -0.2826 0.0723 0.0000

(0.0105) (0.8256) (0.2657) (0.1624) (0.8578) (0.8328) (0.1652) (0.0387) (0.3309) (0.1516) (0.1999) (0.9755) (0.6411) (0.5671) (0.7234) (0.7333) (0.3484) (.) 通貨膨脹率 2.0381 2.5071 0.0475 -0.1278 1.2001 1.2778 0.3830 -0.2615 1.1668 0.9453 -0.9638 -1.1874 -0.5061 -0.7474 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.2218) (0.1584) (0.9859) (0.9523) (0.5746) (0.3989) (0.8832) (0.9235) (0.5403) (0.6446) (0.8413) (0.8902) (0.8262) (0.7352) (.) (.) (.) (.) 政府部門規模 0.3343 0.4790 0.3342 0.8643 0.8320 1.2919 -0.3825 0.1075 -1.3404 -1.7983* 1.6919 1.8565 -3.0197 -0.9307 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.7633) (0.6903) (0.8797) (0.5678) (0.8229) (0.3989) (0.7705) (0.9426) (0.1788) (0.0941) (0.7995) (0.9488) (0.4166) (0.7641) (.) (.) (.) (.) 貿易開放程度 -3.9157** -3.8639* 15.9712 18.9186* -0.3389 9.0490** 13.4061 25.6520** -7.1717 5.0539 12.7756 19.8923 25.3275 21.5176 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.0226) (0.0748) (0.1851) (0.0684) (0.9818) (0.0189) (0.3102) (0.0133) (0.3459) (0.3388) (0.6149) (0.8574) (0.1570) (0.2185) (.) (.) (.) (.) 依賴人口比率 -1.6515*** -0.0905 0.6876 0.3292 -1.1396 -1.2554** 0.2991 0.1555 1.1811 1.9648*** 0.3756 0.3880 0.9909 0.5835 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.0082) (0.8591) (0.5553) (0.7249) (0.3620) (0.0230) (0.8000) (0.9076) (0.1395) (0.0069) (0.7942) (0.9891) (0.6953) (0.8313) (.) (.) (.) (.) 財政紀律 0.1013 0.0549 0.0471 0.0234 0.1074*** 0.0867 0.0343 -0.0326 0.0407 0.0394 0.0420 0.0358 0.0735 0.0696 0.2854 0.0645 -0.2786 -0.0153

(0.1981) (0.5140) (0.4206) (0.6348) (0.0080) (0.2803) (0.7550) (0.7709) (0.6502) (0.6747) (0.6574) (0.9711) (0.4261) (0.4355) (0.8115) (0.4894) (0.7544) (0.9454) 利率 -1.0119 -1.1416 1.0656 0.8454 -0.4367 -1.0730 0.8197 0.4121 0.9386 0.6671 0.8487 0.5041 0.9490 0.9190 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.1149) (0.1011) (0.3936) (0.5153) (0.7493) (0.4008) (0.5020) (0.7418) (0.2390) (0.4026) (0.5155) (0.9458) (0.3774) (0.3816) (.) (.) (.) (.) 截距項 225.746*** 38.3040 118.6692 102.3453 213.4658** 151.6113** 265.3664 259.5724 0.3852 0.5992 0.0000 0.0000

時間虛擬變數

先進國家

1985-2007 (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (6) (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (9)

Adjusted R² 0.310 0.217 0.469 0.521 0.307 0.296

F 3.654 2.641 12.25 7.614 5.772 0.106

arm1 arm2

artests 2 2 2 2

df_m 12 12 2 2 12 2 33 21 29 29 27 27

Instruments DV Lag(2/3) Lag(2/3) Lag(2/3) Lag(2/3)

括號中的數值為P 值(P-value)，*** p<0.01，** p<0.05，* p<0.1。

應變數為經濟成長率。

DV 代表 dependent variable。

附表 4 公債比與經濟成長率關聯估計(1985-1996 年全樣本期間及全樣本國家)之結果完整表全樣本國家

1985-1996 (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (6) (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (9)

(公債比)^1 -0.0745 0.2659 -0.1991 0.0974 0.0378 0.1097 0.6650** 1.0649*** 0.5296* 0.6492** -1.6462 -2.8945 -5.1264 -4.5193 4.2394 1.2871 5.5668* 6.0508 (0.6484) (0.1485) (0.5705) (0.7757) (0.9309) (0.6718) (0.0287) (0.0011) (0.0535) (0.0185) (0.6306) (0.6251) (0.8184) (0.7501) (0.2976) (0.4405) (0.0951) (0.1820) (公債比)^2 0.0002 -0.0020 0.0019 0.0007 0.0006 0.0005 -0.0035 -0.0050** -0.0028 -0.0028 0.0175 0.0313 0.0457 0.0413 -0.0303 -0.0139 -0.0380* -0.0396

(0.9063) (0.2308) (0.3398) (0.7159) (0.8894) (0.8307) (0.1320) (0.0330) (0.2331) (0.1992) (0.5830) (0.6069) (0.8059) (0.7264) (0.2767) (0.2632) (0.0664) (0.1867) 投資 -0.1631 0.1640 0.0540 -0.3376 -0.3189 1.3486 1.4220 -1.0550 -1.0459

(0.4134) (0.2541) (0.9300) (0.4760) (0.4953) (0.5481) (0.7918) (0.2533) (0.4055) 民間儲蓄 0.8950*** 1.1647* 1.4216*** 1.2383** 0.7150 1.1206 0.7994 -2.4992 -0.1872

(0.0031) (0.0526) (0.0019) (0.0263) (0.1532) (0.4173) (0.7208) (0.4308) (0.7257) 期初人均所得 -2.7206 -6.7558*** -21.3866** -20.2583*** -18.6127* -23.4581*** 0.1893 0.1340 0.2075* 0.1641 -36.1431 -38.2347 -31.5681 -23.7294 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.1698) (0.0029) (0.0111) (0.0015) (0.0893) (0.0031) (0.1080) (0.2232) (0.0668) (0.1256) (0.3497) (0.3259) (0.5367) (0.3800) (.) (.) (.) (.) 人口成長率 -6.2813 -15.6080 17.7016* 6.4061 3.0325 -2.1843 2.8044 5.5865 -13.7964 -7.4312 37.8679 -8.7034 20.3011 12.0165 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.6407) (0.2436) (0.0646) (0.5114) (0.9504) (0.9390) (0.8883) (0.7629) (0.4833) (0.6688) (0.4964) (0.8815) (0.8726) (0.8728) (.) (.) (.) (.) 人力資本 0.3045* 0.7719*** 0.1419 0.5922** 0.2748 0.8773*** -0.9784** -0.5007 -0.7425** -0.6269* 1.1982 2.1907 -0.1409 -0.3824 -3.2785 -1.8137* -0.0887 0.4950*

(0.0663) (0.0003) (0.6805) (0.0182) (0.5620) (0.0034) (0.0138) (0.2989) (0.0162) (0.0669) (0.5948) (0.5104) (0.9156) (0.8337) (0.1556) (0.0819) (0.8943) (0.0898) 通貨膨脹率

0.5296 0.2974 0.5401 0.2615 0.7454 0.3114 1.0625 0.6676 1.1036 0.6745 0.2227 -0.4882 0.0100 0.0053 0.6124 1.9006* -5.6825** -13.499 3 (0.3328) (0.5759) (0.3204) (0.6081) (0.3149) (0.6954) (0.2659) (0.4998) (0.2217) (0.4704) (0.8306) (0.7948) (0.9932) (0.9968) (0.5171) (0.0764) (0.0186) (0.2419) 政府部門規模 -0.1528 0.0798 -0.0648 0.4227 -0.4310 0.4615 -0.2911 0.1879 -0.7210 -0.3789 -1.5169 -2.4745 -1.4879 -0.8776 0.0000 0.0000 1.0537 -3.6967

(0.7683) (0.8733) (0.9558) (0.6823) (0.7260) (0.7267) (0.8211) (0.8862) (0.5701) (0.7714) (0.6084) (0.7177) (0.8601) (0.9071) (.) (.) (0.8943) (0.2125) 貿易開放程度 2.7622 1.9999 16.1591* 19.3949** 19.4201 16.0562** 24.5322*** 25.2569*** 19.9086** 17.0258** 21.7890 44.9921 28.4229 29.9479 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.1891) (0.3240) (0.0755) (0.0306) (0.1342) (0.0154) (0.0072) (0.0058) (0.0201) (0.0444) (0.2696) (0.4755) (0.4295) (0.2168) (.) (.) (.) (.) 依賴人口比率 -0.1597 0.0885 -0.7547 -1.0520 -1.5052* -1.2761* -1.0344 -1.5533** -0.3598 -0.0507 1.0150 1.7294 1.9486 0.9057 -4.0973 -2.4587 -2.7387* -1.2886

(0.3167) (0.5970) (0.3855) (0.1778) (0.0724) (0.0654) (0.1531) (0.0262) (0.5120) (0.9145) (0.7777) (0.7580) (0.8789) (0.9048) (0.2366) (0.1708) (0.0730) (0.2967) 財政紀律 -0.0608 -0.0491 -0.0403 -0.0528 0.0286 0.0176 -0.0753 -0.1084 0.0121 -0.0151 -0.0289 -0.0028 0.0759 0.0769 -0.0777 0.0017 -0.2796 -0.3867

(0.3069) (0.3624) (0.6241) (0.5179) (0.7036) (0.7793) (0.2640) (0.1198) (0.8606) (0.8242) (0.7666) (0.9858) (0.8736) (0.8260) (0.5783) (0.9900) (0.1779) (0.1686) 利率 -0.9535** -0.9385*** -0.1481 -0.1367 -0.7861 -0.6381 0.3532 0.0642 -0.4506 -0.5425 -0.3667 0.3491 -0.4073 0.0143 0.5847 -1.0838* 6.7417* 0.6842

(0.0110) (0.0089) (0.8269) (0.8411) (0.1920) (0.1789) (0.4615) (0.8821) (0.2984) (0.1732) (0.5861) (0.7802) (0.9233) (0.9946) (0.4597) (0.0629) (0.0571) (0.7496) 截距項 31.6015

全樣本國家

1985-1996 (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (6) (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (9)

R² 0.213 0.271 0.490 0.528 0.371 0.448

Adjusted R² 0.125 0.189 0.368 0.414 0.237 0.329

F 2.418 3.313 0.577 139.8 11.84 20.39

arm1 0.841

arm2 0.408

artests 2 2 2 2

df_m 12 12 8 8 12 12 33 33 23 23 21 21

Instruments DV Sargan

Threshold 95% CI

105.735 ( 53.458, 158.012)

Lag(2/3) Lag(2/3) Lag(2/3) 1.000 73.192 ( 49.758,

96.626)

Lag(2/3)

括號中的數值為P 值(P-value)，*** p<0.01，** p<0.05，* p<0.1。

應變數為經濟成長率。

DV 代表 dependent variable。

附表 5 發展中國家公債比與經濟成長率關聯估計(1985-1996 年全樣本期間)之結果完整表發展中國家

1985-1996 (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (6) (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (9) (公債比)^1 0.3804** 0.4737** 0.5858 0.6007* 0.4153 0.3187 0.7659** 0.9167** 0.9982*** 0.9606*** -0.2403 -0.0598 0.7706 0.1520 1.4898 1.2481 2.7025 3.0688

(0.0331) (0.0111) (0.1938) (0.0855) (0.7035) (0.6235) (0.0418) (0.0117) (0.0010) (0.0006) (0.9256) (0.9695) (0.9388) (0.9879) (0.1362) (0.2719) (0.2300) (0.2440) (公債比)^2 -0.0004 -0.0012 -0.0017 -0.0012 -0.0004 0.0001 -0.0030 -0.0029 -0.0040 -0.0036 0.0079 0.0107 0.0068 0.0153 -0.0078 -0.0076 -0.0251 -0.0294 (0.8248) (0.4381) (0.5956) (0.4754) (0.9670) (0.9882) (0.3507) (0.3318) (0.1139) (0.1309) (0.6953) (0.4642) (0.9356) (0.8540) (0.1345) (0.2949) (0.2125) (0.2009)

投資 0.2537 -0.1441 0.1377 -0.0833 0.3049 1.0434 0.5071 1.5027 -1.9755

(0.5746) (0.6597) (0.7794) (0.9120) (0.6475) (0.6523) (0.9027) (0.5335) (0.2292) 民間儲蓄 0.4989 1.6533 1.1011 1.4323** 1.2752** 2.2212** 2.2358 1.3014 -4.4639

(0.1470) (0.1553) (0.4268) (0.0484) (0.0327) (0.0351) (0.1557) (0.4039) (0.1517) 期初人均所得 -20.5234*** -19.3630*** -22.1553*** -29.2920*** -21.1755* -25.1128** 0.1703 0.1157 0.0565 0.0071 -18.9405 -13.1118 -13.3358 -10.6993 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0092) (0.0012) (0.0793) (0.0262) (0.2620) (0.4226) (0.6368) (0.9534) (0.4981) (0.5824) (0.7508) (0.7887) (.) (.) (.) (.) 人口成長率 -60.9770* -69.0452** -66.0777 -18.2369 -71.4365 -60.4003 1.1750 57.6031 -25.6169 -3.1189 114.3275 158.4866 26.7663 90.0241 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.0913) (0.0292) (0.1891) (0.5754) (0.3689) (0.5009) (0.9903) (0.4616) (0.7193) (0.9554) (0.7228) (0.4111) (0.9613) (0.7936) (.) (.) (.) (.) 人力資本 0.7344*** 0.9427*** -0.1960 0.4246 0.4936 0.9543 0.0486 0.6006 0.8439 1.3467* 0.1985 0.8419 0.3562 0.3252 0.0000 0.0000 -0.3392 -2.5872

(0.0000) (0.0001) (0.7886) (0.3151) (0.6840) (0.2163) (0.9629) (0.5546) (0.3336) (0.0826) (0.8574) (0.4348) (0.8955) (0.9269) (.) (.) (0.5139) (0.1550) 通貨膨脹率 0.3374 0.2557 0.3417 -0.2577 0.5511 0.2309 0.8455 0.4922 0.9778 0.5108 0.2439 -0.3679 -0.1384 -0.3555 0.0000 0.4888 0.0000 0.0000

(0.4675) (0.5760) (0.5704) (0.6801) (0.5922) (0.7996) (0.4133) (0.6159) (0.3018) (0.5415) (0.7381) (0.6718) (0.9216) (0.8471) (.) (0.8528) (.) (.) 政府部門規模 -1.2858* -0.9247 -1.0213 0.4044 -1.1700 -0.3623 -1.5548 -0.9750 -2.3632 -1.7985 -2.9902 -3.6563 -0.4248 -0.4331 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.0518) (0.1463) (0.3803) (0.7458) (0.5495) (0.8466) (0.3713) (0.5483) (0.1233) (0.1990) (0.2934) (0.3602) (0.9640) (0.9638) (.) (.) (.) (.) 貿易開放程度 29.0030*** 25.3037*** 45.3959** 43.2869** 35.8205 30.9679 23.4543 24.7718 16.7554 16.0239 36.4569 72.7039** 89.2998 108.3441** 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.0019) (0.0046) (0.0434) (0.0447) (0.3889) (0.3327) (0.2942) (0.1038) (0.3973) (0.2233) (0.3926) (0.0129) (0.3353) (0.0274) (.) (.) (.) (.) 依賴人口比率 -0.5754** -0.4056 -1.1262 -2.3244* -0.3419 -0.4027 -0.3656 -1.3028 0.0015 0.0128 0.1510 -0.4841 -2.8799 -3.4470 0.0919 -0.8887 0.1177 1.5377*

(0.0443) (0.1857) (0.4736) (0.0928) (0.8357) (0.8153) (0.7863) (0.3063) (0.9986) (0.9868) (0.9368) (0.8328) (0.7191) (0.6848) (0.9729) (0.4684) (0.7533) (0.0972) 財政紀律 -0.0615 -0.0873 -0.1364* -0.1088 -0.0618 -0.0488 -0.0868 -0.0782 -0.0246 -0.0131 -0.1446 -0.1592 -0.2511 -0.2143 -0.2282 -0.0789 -0.5896* -0.9950*

(0.3052) (0.1606) (0.0608) (0.1445) (0.6090) (0.7112) (0.4405) (0.4805) (0.8207) (0.8935) (0.3932) (0.2937) (0.5781) (0.6714) (0.2222) (0.2746) (0.0952) (0.0910) 利率 -0.6787* -0.7000** -0.0927 0.0105 -0.7079 -0.6202 -0.1388 -0.1925 -1.0339** -0.9419*** -0.8884 -0.6147 -0.4188 -0.4511 -3.1005 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.0515) (0.0384) (0.8777) (0.9880) (0.2358) (0.4679) (0.8328) (0.6956) (0.0312) (0.0092) (0.4881) (0.4772) (0.8857) (0.8082) (0.6009) (.) (.) (.) 截距項 -9.2789 -62.9933 18.2922 191.8026 -49.4491 -27.6472 414.7824 455.3295 -4.1366 -5.5174 0.0000 0.0000

時間虛擬變數

發展中國家

1985-1996 (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (6) (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (9)

Adjusted R² 0.461 0.477 0.436 0.507 0.370 0.413

F 6.056 6.396 5.842 3.178 77.99 94.49

arm1 arm2

artests 2 2 2 2

df_m 12 12 4 4 12 12 29 29 23 23 21 21

Instruments DV lag(2/3) lag(2/3) lag(2/3) lag(2/3)

括號中的數值為P 值(P-value)，*** p<0.01，** p<0.05，* p<0.1。

應變數為經濟成長率。

DV 代表 dependent variable。

附表 6 先進國家公債比與經濟成長率關聯估計(1985-1996 年全樣本期間)之結果完整表

(0.2027) (0.5879) (0.6902) (0.7201) (0.9976) (0.8385) (0.6399) (0.4243) (0.5604) (0.1349) (0.8958) (0.6282) (0.8528) (0.7339) (0.4919) (0.3249) (0.6519) (0.7858) 投資 -1.9068*** -0.4052* -1.9872 -1.5527 -2.4495* -4.0552 -0.7170 -0.4764 0.0000 (0.0032) (0.0841) (0.2261) (0.3585) (0.0562) (0.7474) (0.7616) (0.8279) (.)

民間儲蓄 0.5486 0.2846 0.0147 -0.3725 -1.4341 1.6699 0.9606 0.0000 1.2314

(0.5462) (0.5530) (0.9946) (0.8315) (0.3060) (0.8167) (0.8903) (.) (0.1365) 期初人均所得 -11.6579* -14.1176* -18.0846 -23.6263 -18.4828 -22.6218 -0.1403 -0.1060 0.1290 0.2384 -9.4182 -77.0582 -1.1642 -16.4941 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.0551) (0.0601) (0.3822) (0.2527) (0.1449) (0.1260) (0.5234) (0.6314) (0.5040) (0.2342) (0.9342) (0.4275) (0.9784) (0.7964) (.) (.) (.) (.) 人口成長率 -10.3188 27.6747 7.3954 8.4871 -11.3857 3.9912 4.3003 23.0249 -11.8514 15.8822 -59.2556 -13.4905 -19.8180 -16.8198 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.6896) (0.2846) (0.7178) (0.6969) (0.7478) (0.9477) (0.9133) (0.5625) (0.6710) (0.6140) (0.8034) (0.8307) (0.7534) (0.7814) (.) (.) (.) (.) 人力資本 -0.6351* -0.2714 1.1567 1.1747 0.5000 0.5581 2.0638 2.2073 0.3445 0.4010 2.1711 -1.7410 0.2097 -0.1280 -1.0585* -1.2676** -0.8862** -1.2501

(0.0993) (0.6573) (0.3351) (0.2723) (0.3769) (0.2749) (0.2184) (0.2045) (0.6117) (0.5826) (0.8307) (0.7158) (0.9147) (0.9569) (0.0710) (0.0409) (0.0321) (0.1376) 通貨膨脹率 -1.5181 1.8215 -0.9907 -0.6909 -1.4593 0.6215 0.0060 -0.3916 -1.1702 -0.6936 -7.4080 2.7205 -0.7652 -0.1202 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.5833) (0.5325) (0.6589) (0.7616) (0.6901) (0.8308) (0.9988) (0.9274) (0.7003) (0.8222) (0.8111) (0.7962) (0.9383) (0.9841) (.) (.) (.) (.) 政府部門規模 0.2690 2.4504 -1.8268 -1.5166 -1.4793 -1.8430 -2.5119 -2.9349 -2.3635 -4.1702 5.0088 9.0527 -1.7446 -0.5976 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.8898) (0.2799) (0.7058) (0.7545) (0.7776) (0.8502) (0.4839) (0.4662) (0.3011) (0.1507) (0.7285) (0.6080) (0.9323) (0.9175) (.) (.) (.) (.) 貿易開放程度 0.2870 -5.8184 12.1044 14.8748 -7.3015 5.3788 2.9171 14.9171 -8.1726 4.0510 15.6779 10.1220 23.3681 23.1380 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.9557) (0.3211) (0.1717) (0.1519) (0.4042) (0.5508) (0.8997) (0.4595) (0.6350) (0.8032) (0.7945) (0.7703) (0.7113) (0.5964) (.) (.) (.) (.) 依賴人口比率 -3.2387*** -1.7098 0.0634 0.1892 -2.3017 -1.7792 -0.9401 0.0431 0.7754 2.3579* -4.3673 -5.5199 -1.0711 -1.2789 0.0000 -0.4775 0.9091** 0.0000

(0.0073) (0.1797) (0.9772) (0.9334) (0.2746) (0.3034) (0.7146) (0.9863) (0.6215) (0.0804) (0.6346) (0.5466) (0.8128) (0.7904) (.) (0.8438) (0.0347) (.) 財政紀律 0.1222 0.0890 -0.0110 -0.0162 0.1105 0.1102 0.0232 -0.0022 0.0297 0.0534 -0.1314 0.0642 0.0550 0.0662 0.0617 0.0581 -0.3133 0.0296

(0.1897) (0.4022) (0.7982) (0.7287) (0.4894) (0.7842) (0.8908) (0.9902) (0.8006) (0.6814) (0.8547) (0.8097) (0.8539) (0.7269) (0.4731) (0.6970) (0.4976) (0.9684) 利率 -0.6626 -2.5759* 0.8819 0.7082 0.3766 -1.2578 -0.0229 -0.6174 2.6428* 1.5240 -2.1619 -2.1957 -0.0687 0.0669 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.6071) (0.0504) (0.6756) (0.7157) (0.8700) (0.4998) (0.9928) (0.8098) (0.0800) (0.3195) (0.8193) (0.6038) (0.9853) (0.9846) (.) (.) (.) (.)

先進國家

1985-1996 (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (6) (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (9) Adjusted R² 0.271 0.072 0.460 0.458 0.313 0.181

F 2.458 1.305 43.06 608.8 121.2 95.70

arm1 arm2

artests 2 2 2 2

df_m 12 12 2 2 12 12 27 27 23 23 21 21

InstrumentsDV lag(2/3) lag(2/3) lag(2/3) lag(2/3)

括號中的數值為P 值(P-value)，*** p<0.01，** p<0.05，* p<0.1。

應變數為經濟成長率。

DV 代表 dependent variable。

附表 7 公債比與經濟成長率關聯估計(2002-2007 年全樣本期間及全樣本國家)之結果完整表全樣本國家

2002-2007 (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (6) (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (9) (公債比)^1 0.1423 0.2540* 0.3939 0.3251 0.3132 0.3603 0.4930 0.4829 0.2491 0.2251 -0.1914 -0.4655 -2.7888 -2.1062 4.5091 4.5241 1.2233** 1.5857**

(0.3125) (0.0837) (0.6849) (0.6351) (0.6999) (0.5547) (0.1210) (0.1228) (0.4421) (0.4552) (0.7471) (0.5872) (0.3984) (0.3669) (0.1551) (0.1579) (0.0101) (0.0157) (公債比)^2 -0.0010 -0.0013 -0.0021 -0.0015 -0.0005 -0.0004 -0.0034** -0.0027 -0.0010 -0.0008 -0.0010 -0.0010 0.0054 0.0043 -0.0164* -0.0183 -0.0051** -0.0067**

(0.2456) (0.1140) (0.7560) (0.8237) (0.9494) (0.9483) (0.0329) (0.1004) (0.4740) (0.5841) (0.4890) (0.5708) (0.6703) (0.6600) (0.0941) (0.1149) (0.0108) (0.0136) 投資 0.4637** 0.5990 -0.2227 0.4937 -0.0304 0.4300 0.3701 0.0000 0.8539***

(0.0484) (0.4614) (0.6867) (0.4584) (0.9652) (0.3568) (0.8105) (.) (0.0002) 民間儲蓄 0.4200** -0.3493 -0.6946 -0.4331 -0.2678 0.4300 -0.9063 2.8970 0.3700***

(0.0204) (0.6861) (0.3537) (0.4787) (0.6484) (0.7347) (0.3915) (0.4732) (0.0004) 期初人均所得 -1.4266 -4.8940** -18.4543 -5.5035 0.9446 0.6369 -0.0154 0.0034 -0.0477 -0.0000 1.1270 13.9413 21.9994 22.9393 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.5464) (0.0311) (0.2811) (0.8067) (0.9393) (0.9579) (0.9217) (0.9828) (0.7659) (0.9999) (0.9678) (0.6422) (0.6995) (0.5973) (.) (.) (.) (.) 人口成長率 -12.1845 -13.4341* -13.1771 -12.1129 -13.7082 -11.7040 -19.3300** -17.9426** -18.1658** -16.8808* -18.9462* -24.0604 -27.3427 -22.0356 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.1049) (0.0715) (0.8515) (0.8144) (0.7963) (0.8260) (0.0206) (0.0388) (0.0483) (0.0583) (0.0598) (0.1590) (0.1861) (0.2330) (.) (.) (.) (.) 人力資本 0.0582 0.1924* -0.5577 -0.4436 -0.3364 -0.4159 -0.4882 -0.4827 -0.3884 -0.4487 -0.3825 -0.2047 0.4990 0.3259 -0.8769 1.9816 0.1840** 0.2782**

(0.4976) (0.0557) (0.2522) (0.3394) (0.6160) (0.5672) (0.1497) (0.1500) (0.2616) (0.1963) (0.2304) (0.6130) (0.7036) (0.7326) (0.3873) (0.6877) (0.0275) (0.0205) 通貨膨脹率 1.7234** 1.4591* 2.1722 2.3434 1.1697 1.1875 2.5331 2.7752** 1.5860 1.4314 2.1723** 2.2261** 3.4005* 3.5055** 0.0000 1.2455 0.0000 0.0000

(0.0351) (0.0758) (0.1213) (0.1274) (0.3409) (0.3321) (0.1050) (0.0457) (0.2246) (0.1904) (0.0175) (0.0405) (0.0931) (0.0322) (.) (0.9011) (.) (.) 政府部門規模 0.0291 0.4688 -0.9834 -1.5821 0.5774 0.3634 -3.9698* -2.9049 -0.4650 -0.4152 -5.0489 -7.4690 -9.6843 -8.4797 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.9722) (0.5119) (0.7724) (0.7182) (0.8169) (0.9180) (0.0802) (0.1554) (0.8286) (0.8285) (0.3618) (0.3251) (0.2880) (0.2491) (.) (.) (.) (.) 貿易開放程度 1.4356 0.6553 -0.0905 -0.1053 4.5270 9.9349 -4.3623 -0.1516 4.0325 6.0516 -4.2642 -12.4236 13.2054 15.2320 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.3517) (0.6812) (0.9962) (0.9929) (0.8151) (0.4296) (0.6066) (0.9879) (0.6206) (0.5002) (0.6253) (0.5150) (0.5593) (0.4623) (.) (.) (.) (.) 依賴人口比率 -0.0412 -0.1065 -1.2269 -1.7975 -3.3755* -4.1535*** 0.2875 -1.3128 -3.2980** -3.6282** 2.0800 4.6920 10.1084 6.6053 -2.4893 0.0000 -1.8122*** -2.0087**

(0.8145) (0.4934) (0.6209) (0.4862) (0.0523) (0.0022) (0.8896) (0.5155) (0.0290) (0.0224) (0.6672) (0.5808) (0.4093) (0.5449) (0.5952) (.) (0.0069) (0.0162) 財政紀律 -0.1650 -0.1853* 0.1209 0.1051 -0.0964 -0.0818 0.1250 0.1029 -0.0302 -0.0148 0.2401 0.2834 0.5328 0.4394 -1.0127** -0.5357** -0.2718** -0.3041***

(0.1236) (0.0788) (0.4084) (0.4274) (0.4636) (0.6389) (0.3540) (0.4169) (0.8289) (0.9086) (0.1546) (0.2270) (0.2327) (0.1917) (0.0136) (0.0327) (0.0111) (0.0067) 利率 0.1740 0.2090 0.9955*** 0.8249*** 0.4704 0.4270 1.1087** 0.8287* 1.1579** 1.0713** 1.1745** 1.3178* 1.1092 0.8915 -2.7268 0.9510 6.0916*** 6.7762***

(0.5184) (0.4321) (0.0036) (0.0062) (0.2386) (0.2237) (0.0189) (0.0722) (0.0110) (0.0153) (0.0147) (0.0942) (0.1746) (0.2187) (0.4806) (0.5793) (0.0042) (0.0093)

截距項 -31.6015 -18.9646 196.4175 148.3583 120.6007 180.8044 -70.1404 -277.8933 3.8521 2.9936 0.0000 0.0000

全樣本國家

2002-2007 (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (6) (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (9)

Adjusted R² 0.509 0.524 0.560 0.533 0.337 0.363

F 6.097 6.422 116.5 22.98 11.40 17.51

arm1 0.103 0.274

arm2

artests 2 2 2 2

df_m 12 12 17 17 12 12 27 27 17 17 15 15

Instruments DV Sragan

Threshold 95% CI

Lag(2/5) Lag(2/5) Lag(2/5) 0.102 120.376 ( 109.318,

131.433)

Lag(2/5) 1.000 118.167 ( 111.675,

124.660) 括號中的數值為P 值(P-value)，*** p<0.01，** p<0.05，* p<0.1。

應變數為經濟成長率。

DV 代表 dependent variable。

附表 8 發展中國家公債比與經濟成長率關聯估計(2002-2007 年全樣本期間)之結果完整表發展中國家

2002-2007 (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (6) (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (9) (公債比)^1 1.3410** 1.0789* 1.7241* 1.8492** 1.3076 1.4952 2.1928 1.7337 1.0567 0.9908 4.9500 3.1126 9.3600 3.9035 -0.2459 -1.4261* -3.0141 0.0000

(0.0222) (0.0837) (0.0797) (0.0122) (0.7248) (0.5761) (0.1058) (0.1104) (0.4888) (0.5127) (0.1067) (0.7149) (0.4055) (0.1289) (0.9693) (0.0822) (0.1479) (.) (公債比)^2 -0.0075 -0.0047 -0.0138* -0.0129** -0.0089 -0.0079 -0.0129 -0.0084 -0.0070 -0.0057 -0.0390* -0.0264 -0.0606 -0.0336* -0.0048 0.0059 0.0170 -0.0059

(0.1263) (0.3595) (0.0952) (0.0499) (0.8026) (0.7054) (0.2074) (0.3098) (0.5358) (0.6143) (0.0535) (0.7004) (0.2489) (0.0789) (0.9174) (0.3387) (0.1195) (0.2167)

投資 0.7614* 0.1644 0.3074 -0.3686 0.3164 0.0935 2.8827 0.0000 -0.8721 人口成長率 -76.2862 -98.2023 351.2868** 288.5393** -110.1150 48.1934 333.0836 396.2131* -110.6229 -63.5884 491.1154* 344.8272 706.9953 364.7219 0.0000

(0.2943) (0.2534) (0.0389) (0.0236) (0.7316) (0.8562) (0.1789) (0.0615) (0.3341) (0.5237) (0.0644) (0.7565) (0.3498) (0.1156) (.) 人力資本 0.2110 0.2415 -0.5870 -0.3779 -0.4048 0.1447 -0.1244 0.6571 -0.3024 -0.1559 -2.2110 -1.1512 -1.9821 -0.7348 1.1188 -0.0934 -0.3100 1.6642**

(0.3287) (0.4793) (0.5421) (0.3082) (0.8013) (0.9609) (0.9239) (0.4896) (0.7465) (0.8689) (0.1992) (0.9329) (0.5224) (0.5785) (0.5198) (0.7805) (0.5698) (0.0144) 通貨膨脹率 0.3359 0.4430 2.7977*** 2.8830** 1.6528 1.7218 5.3491** 3.7834** 2.3639 1.8672 3.9043*** 3.4346 2.4348 3.6134*** 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.7244) (0.6684) (0.0079) (0.0113) (0.5017) (0.6920) (0.0106) (0.0246) (0.2073) (0.3252) (0.0084) (0.5408) (0.4857) (0.0028) (.) (.) (.) (.) 政府部門規模 0.4651 1.3425 -3.0576 -3.1031 -0.0135 -2.2451 -2.0925 -3.6221 -0.1880 0.6439 4.5801 -1.1916 9.7194 -2.5124 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.7425) (0.4916) (0.4161) (0.2262) (0.9981) (0.7919) (0.6987) (0.3239) (0.9682) (0.8740) (0.6754) (0.9589) (0.7233) (0.6795) (.) (.) (.) (.) 貿易開放程度 -21.1001 -26.7337 3.3582 3.9987 -16.9250 -24.8447 -14.0199 -10.3500 -26.4953 -16.5912 28.4945 31.7958 -26.6195 29.8985 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.1935) (0.1421) (0.9099) (0.8281) (0.8036) (0.8069) (0.6397) (0.6254) (0.2787) (0.4263) (0.7693) (0.8983) (0.8747) (0.4471) (.) (.) (.) (.) 依賴人口比率 -0.1219 0.0138 1.1834 -1.4829 -2.9341 -3.1347 1.0640 0.4067 -4.2263 -5.7688** -4.2638 -2.9241 -5.9738 -1.7488 0.0000 0.0000 2.5013 0.1072

(0.8271) (0.9885) (0.7379) (0.4801) (0.5040) (0.6553) (0.8637) (0.9291) (0.1800) (0.0480) (0.4969) (0.8500) (0.7112) (0.7645) (.) (.) (0.2635) (0.8349) 財政紀律 -0.0707 -0.0741 0.0846 -0.0015 -0.0402 -0.0833 -0.0898 -0.0400 -0.1076 -0.1164 -0.0254 0.0323 -0.5435 -0.0516 -0.2667 -0.1849** -0.6670 -0.4815

(0.6446) (0.6716) (0.5142) (0.9872) (0.8661) (0.7257) (0.6892) (0.8121) (0.5784) (0.5061) (0.9366) (0.9668) (0.6488) (0.8396) (0.7523) (0.0140) (0.4398) (0.1323) 利率 0.8756** 0.7317* 1.2239** 0.8198** 1.0566 0.8858 0.7901 0.0161 1.5507*** 1.0976* 1.8465 1.0769 2.3629 1.1263** 0.4089 0.7510** 0.0000 0.2120

(0.0366) (0.0967) (0.0145) (0.0172) (0.1763) (0.2331) (0.1876) (0.9769) (0.0038) (0.0680) (0.1330) (0.7027) (0.2789) (0.0422) (0.5630) (0.0469) (.) (0.7496) 截距項 -428.6862* -499.0002* 918.9590* 791.4148*** -207.2200 95.8789 1515.7905** 1118.9438 12.4619 5.4339 0.0000 0.0000

時間虛擬變數

發展中國家

2002-2007 (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (6) (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (9)

Adjusted R² 0.474 0.380 0.705 0.855 0.449 0.606

F 3.629 2.787 6.226 18.20 17.07 8.604 557.8

arm1 arm2

artests 2 2 2 2

df_m 12 12 22 4 12 12 23 17 17 17 15 15

InstrumentsDV Sragan

Threshold 95% CI

62.572 ( 45.4790,

79.666)

71.407 ( 45.081,

97.733)

Lag(2/3) Lag(2/3) Lag(2/3) Lag(2/3)

括號中的數值為P 值(P-value)，*** p<0.01，** p<0.05，* p<0.1。

應變數為經濟成長率。

DV 代表 dependent variable。

附表 9 先進國家公債比與經濟成長率關聯估計(2002-2007 年全樣本期間)之結果完整表先進國家

2002-2007 (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (6) (7) (7) (8) (8) (公債比)^1 -0.0190 -0.0044 -0.9704 -1.0224 -1.3849 -1.3070 -1.9172*** -1.4042*** -1.2634 -2.0413 -1.5080 -2.7914 3.0200 2.6365* 1.0964** 0.0112

(0.9814) (0.9948) (0.4182) (0.2499) (0.3946) (0.5216) (0.0017) (0.0022) (0.3465) (0.8110) (0.3438) (0.1619) (0.1363) (0.0700) (0.0385) (0.9758) (公債比)^2 0.0002 -0.0012 0.0023 0.0024 0.0030 0.0029 0.0032 0.0017 0.0021 0.0047 0.0029 0.0087 -0.0074 -0.0105** -0.0055** -0.0003

(0.9531) (0.6188) (0.5827) (0.5324) (0.6230) (0.7084) (0.1178) (0.2862) (0.6779) (0.9240) (0.6161) (0.2230) (0.2562) (0.0384) (0.0268) (0.8399) 投資 -1.0612 -0.7398 -0.2601 -0.6414 -0.5973 -0.4966 0.0000 -4.4861

(0.2404) (0.6835) (0.6865) (0.5169) (0.7692) (0.7931) (.) (0.1548) 民間儲蓄 3.2785** 1.5936 0.8832 1.5336 0.7359 2.7743 0.0000 0.0000

(0.0220) (0.2086) (0.6299) (0.1515) (0.7312) (0.3475) (.) (.) 期初人均所得 -11.3199 -16.2239 -78.7058 -93.4384 -64.7597*** -62.5755** -0.0780 -0.0903 -78.6531* -64.0442 -72.2572 -106.9692* 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.4786) (0.2363) (0.1141) (0.1140) (0.0044) (0.0481) (0.4478) (0.2771) (0.0523) (0.2360) (0.1347) (0.0803) (.) (.) (.) (.) 人口成長率 -5.3310 -14.9053* 9.1419 2.2713 3.6059 1.1575 -8.2469 -11.4863** 4.7095 0.1570 4.8213 0.2275 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.5798) (0.0644) (0.4686) (0.7983) (0.8745) (0.9680) (0.1695) (0.0453) (0.7420) (0.9996) (0.7529) (0.9883) (.) (.) (.) (.) 人力資本 0.1323 0.1663 1.5696 0.9079 0.9338 0.7809 -0.1979 -0.2455 1.3788 1.0557 1.1068 0.6230 0.6244 -0.4828 1.2235 -0.0144

(0.6883) (0.5407) (0.3478) (0.3649) (0.1324) (0.3120) (0.6559) (0.3996) (0.4118) (0.5843) (0.5623) (0.7067) (0.1135) (0.2328) (0.1904) (0.9709) 通貨膨脹率 1.8333 -1.3155 -2.5906 -1.6840 -3.1808*** -3.2133 -2.2399 -2.6825* -2.5179 -2.8352 -3.4139 -2.3415 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.4030) (0.5720) (0.4329) (0.2638) (0.0011) (0.2810) (0.3020) (0.0767) (0.4255) (0.7964) (0.3660) (0.5959) (.) (.) (.) (.) 政府部門規模 4.8576 7.6626 9.1566 14.7461 11.4109*** 12.7745** 11.5739*** 10.4555*** 9.9055 16.3724 10.8747 27.5396 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.3977) (0.1176) (0.3486) (0.2654) (0.0053) (0.0250) (0.0072) (0.0009) (0.3529) (0.7102) (0.3221) (0.1269) (.) (.) (.) (.) 貿易開放程度 5.5291 -0.8283 58.0343 44.9273 52.0497* 46.2143* 51.6203*** 35.3147*** 53.6350* 55.3684 56.0518 47.9282 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.5663) (0.9202) (0.1012) (0.1773) (0.0860) (0.0589) (0.0000) (0.0091) (0.0834) (0.7028) (0.1023) (0.1834) (.) (.) (.) (.) 依賴人口比率 -2.0279 2.1148* 2.6855 0.6418 3.2756 2.5098 6.8245*** 5.9057*** 4.5392 4.4766 4.6871 -0.5550 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.1684

(0.2981) (0.0633) (0.5317) (0.8458) (0.2744) (0.4721) (0.0000) (0.0002) (0.3364) (0.7761) (0.4778) (0.9434) (.) (.) (.) (0.8382) 財政紀律 -0.0823 -0.4129** 0.4743 0.2785 0.2570* 0.1506 -0.1230 -0.2644** 0.4286 0.1754 0.3679 0.1085 1.8854*** -1.6505** 0.0000 0.0000

(0.7040) (0.0437) (0.1475) (0.2148) (0.0781) (0.3866) (0.2036) (0.0436) (0.1232) (0.7461) (0.2014) (0.7764) (0.0090) (0.0148) (.) (.) 利率 0.0861 0.5306 0.1930 0.1137 0.6128*** 0.6306 -4.4164*** -3.6653** 0.5601 0.7654 0.5369 -0.1681 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

(0.9027) (0.3726) (0.8676) (0.9223) (0.0031) (0.4947) (0.0053) (0.0119) (0.6862) (0.6554) (0.6798) (0.9015) (.) (.) (.) (.)

先進國家

2002-2007 (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (6) (7) (7) (8) (8)

Adjusted R² 0.480 0.640 0.631 0.840 0.764 0.781

F 2.766 4.400 3.490 41.97 141.2 6.317 14.96

arm1 0.879

arm2 0.689 0.471

artests 2 2 2 2

df_m 12 12 20 2 9 11 21 12 12 12 10 10

Instruments DV Sargan test Threshold 95% CI

Lag(2/3) Lag(2/3) 1.000 125.315 ( 105.916,

144.715)

Lag(2/3) 1.000 100.578 ( 91.825, 109.331)

Lag(2/3)

括號中的數值為P 值(P-value)，*** p<0.01，** p<0.05，* p<0.1。

應變數為經濟成長率。

DV 代表 dependent variable。

(1)欄為普通最小平方法，(2)(3)欄為固定效果，(4)欄為修正過自我相關的固定效果，(5)欄為工具變數法-兩階段最小平方法(demean)，(6)欄為工具變數法-兩階段最小平方法(difference)，(7)欄為一階差分一般動差法，(8)欄為系統性一般動差法。

在文檔中公債與經濟成長:以亞洲地區國家為例 (頁 69-91)

第五章 實證結果與分析

6.2 研究限制與建議

參考文獻

Paper Series, No. 12750.

Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297.

Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407-443.

American Economic Review, 55(5), 1126-1150.

Development Economics, 29(3), 253-268.

Thomson South-Western.

http://www.fordham.edu/economics/mcleod/Elitz-UsingArellano%E2%80%93Bon dGMMEstimators.pdf accessed October 2009.

National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, No. 15639.

Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(4), 1243-1259.

附錄

第五章實證結果與分析