研究限制與後續研究

本研究有著一些研究限制，運用 DCF 法做企業評價是一套相當中立的過程，

主觀意見參雜少，資料來源都是透明公開的財務資料；但是選擇權評價的過程參 雜了許多主觀的臆測，不同研究者考量的因素不盡相同，來源可能有研究報告、

新聞或研究者的觀點，結論也往往不一樣，這點為許多學者詬病的關鍵。較多的 模擬與情境分析可以降低如此的疑慮，將相關的資料收集齊全以做選擇權評價能

讓我們改善此缺點。

另外存在著模型的風險，實質選擇權在企業界使用不普遍的原因在於發展的 評價模型不為管理者熟知與瞭解，應用上的技術問題尚未克服，假設條件也常與 現實情節不符。為求易於解釋應用實質選擇權於併購計畫之評估，本研究設計了 極為簡化之模型，各輸入項的估計過程，也做了相當程度的簡化工作。因此，本 研究所設計之簡化模型，勢必無法全然反應個案之真實情境。

在本研究進行過程中，2006 年 4 月 7 日，明基集團旗下的液晶面板廠商“友 達光電”宣佈換股收購“廣輝電子”。考慮雙方的每股淨值、產能與獲利，友達光電 將增發，廣輝股東以3.5 股兌換友達光電 1 股。按當日收市價，總交易額達 22.2 億美元。兩家公司宣布合併成為”新友達”，合併後全球產能市佔率可提升到 19%，

兩家企業五代與六代廠的加總效益，均衡佈局電視與監視器面板，而且效益可能 會擴及明基與廣達。

台北元大京華證券分析師埃裡克‧林：「併購對LCD 面板行業來說是利好消 息。目前該行業總體價格過於疲軟，整合有助於穩定市場價格。」

友達併購廣輝預示了液晶面板業「強者恆強、大者恆大」的走勢，也帶來了 對產業重組進一步的猜測。兩家企業合併，在2006 年五月市值已經超過兩千億 新台幣。此事件印證了本研究”分久必合”的論點，說明了台灣面版業的整併風是 屬於現在進行式，值得研究。

後續的研究方面，兩家公司合併後的表現必定是許多學者後續研究的重要個 案題材。在評價過程方面，若加入賽局理論(Game Theory)的思考，模擬寡佔產業 中廠商的動態競合關係，可以將特定產業企業併購的行為有著更完整、深入的探 討。相關的文獻如Mark and Andrianos(2004)提出的兩階段實質選擇權賽局模型 中，分析競爭企業進入之決策準則。於不確定之競爭市場中衡量每個公司之期望 進入時間和計算兩家企業在有限期間內進入市場之期望時間。在不確定的企業環 境下，領導者(追隨者)隨時間推演，企業利益將減少(增加)；另外國內學者林達榮、

陳俊銘(民國 92 年)的文章中建立實質選擇權評價的 R＆D 成長機會價值決策評估 模式與廠商在獨占市場結構及競爭者存在下，針對進入、退出市場決策將等待進 入價值和退出價值納入廠商決策行為的考量。因此若將實質選擇權加上賽局理論 的評價模型，用來探討我國面版產業的競合關係，是後續學者可從事的題材。

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