中亞新舊勢力的競爭:以天然氣為例 - 政大學術集成

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(1)國立政治大學俄羅斯研究所 Old and Rising Players in Central Asia: The Case of Natural Gas. 研究生：盧明豪. Student: Michal Rozanski. 指導教授：魏百谷. Advisor: Dr. Bai - Ku Wei. 政治大. 立. Nat. y. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. 國立政治大學國立政治大學俄羅斯研究所碩士論文. er. io. sit. Master Thesis. n. a l to the Institute of Russiani Studies v Submitted n. C. U College h of e International n g c h i Affairs National Chengchi University. In Partial Fulfilment of the requirements For the Degree of Master of Arts. 中. 華. 民. 國. 一. 百年 July 2011. 七. 月. 十. 四. 日.

(2) ABSTRACT. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to the creation of five new states in Central Asia. These states: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan, have become both the object of international rivalries in Central Asia and the sources of new political forces as they act to enlarge their independence in world politics. This paper attempts to show new and old forces in terms of natural gas in Central Asia. This thesis shows conditions and obstacles of Central Asian States (CAS) to develop their own energy sector. The research focuses on those states in Central Asia which possess significant stocks of hydrocarbons and have the potential to export. 政治大 tries to explain its present 立 situation and perspectives by means of a geopolitical oil and gas: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Furthermore, this dissertation. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. approach.. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Key words: Central Asia, Natural Gas, Geopolitics. i.

(3) TABLE OF CONTENT Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………i List of Maps……………………………………………….……………………..……iii List of Graphs……………………………………………………………………....…iii List of Figures ……………………………………………………………………...…iii List of t Tables……………………………………………………………………...…iii List of Abbreviations…...……………………………………………………..………iv. Background………………………………………………..……………..1. 1.2.. Motivation………………………………………………………………..4. 1.3.. The Purpose of Research and Research Questions………………………5. 1.4.. Literature Review…………………………………………..……………6. 1.5.. Methodology and Approach …………………………………………...13. 1.6.. Limitations …………………………………………………………......14. 1.7.. Structure of Thesis …………………………………………………......15. 政治大. 立. ‧. Natural gas in CAS ……………………………………………………………16 2.1.. Gas Capacity in CAS………………………………………………..….16. 2.2.. Gas Pipeline in CAS …………………………………………………..25. sit. y. Nat. a. er. CAS Dependency on Old Russian Pipeline……. ……………………………..34. io. 3.. 1.1.. 學. 2.. Introduction ……………………………………………………..........................1. ‧ 國. 1.. i v.………………….…….37 Turkmenistan…………………………..……. l n. 3.1.. 4.. 5.. Un. C. 3.2.. hengchi Kazakhstan ……………………………………………………………..40. 3.3.. Uzbekistan……………...………………………………………………42. 3.4.. Gas Market and Assessment of CAS Policy……….……………..…….44. New Players……………………………………………………………………48 4.1.. China……………………………………………………………………48. 4.2.. EU and USA ……………………………………………..…………….52. 4.3.. Iran ……………………………………………………………………..56. Conclusion …………………………………………………………………….59. Bibliography…...………………………………………………………………...........63. ii.

(4) LIST OF MAPS Map1.1 Central Asia……………………………………………………………………1 Map 2.1 Turkmenistan Oil and Gas …….....................................................................19 Map 2.2 Main gas field in Kazakhstan ……………………………………....….……21 Map 2.3 Central Asia Center gas pipelines……...........................................................27 Map 2.4 Russian planning gas pipeline in Central Asia………………...……….……28 Map 2.5 Plant in Orienburg ……................................................…..…………………29 Map 2.6 Korpezhe-Kurt Kui pipeline………………………………...……...………..30 Map 2.7 Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan-China pipeline…………………..………………31 Map 2.8 Possible Trans-Caspian pipeline…………………...….……………...…......33 Map 3.1 Russian gas pipelines in Central Asia…………………………………….....36. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. LIST OF GRAPHS. Graph 2.1 Gas consumption and production in Turkmenistan (Bcm)………….……..18. ‧. Graph 2.2 Gas consumption and production in Kazakhstan (Bcm)…………………..20. y. Nat. Graph 2.3 Gas consumption and production in Uzbekistan (Bcm)………...……........23. sit. Graph 3.1.Gas consumption and production in Russia (Bcm)……………………..…34. n. al. er. io. Graph 4.1.Gas consumption and production in China (Bcm)……...…………………50. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Central Asia natural gas balances – proved reserves (Tcm)……...……….16 Figure 2.2 Central Asia natural gas balances in 2010 (Bcm)…………………...….…17 Figure 3.1 Average Russian price for gas exporting to Europe………………………45. LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1 Russian gas sales prices in 2008……………………………...………….…45. iii.

(5) LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS Bcm billion cubic meters BTC Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline CAC Central Asia –Center gas pipeline system CAS Central Asia States CIS Commonwealth of Independent States Cm cubic meters CPC Caspian Pipeline Consortium ECO Economic Cooperation Organization GDP Gross Domestic Product IMF International Monetary Fund KMG KazMunaiGas. 立. 政治大. LNG liquefied natural gas. ‧ 國. 學. OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Q quarter of year. ‧. Tcm trillion cubic meters. y. Nat. USD United States dollar. n. er. io. al. sit. USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Ch. engchi. iv. i Un. v.

(6) Chapter 1 Introduction. 1.1.. Background. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 paved way to the creation of five new states in Central Asia. See map 1.1. Especially three of them: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, have become both the object of international rivalries in Central Asia and the sources of new political forces as they act to enlarge their independence in world politics1. This rivalry is particularly strong in the struggle among these states to increase positions of leverage over the energy economy, e.g. production, pipelines,. 政治大. and refining in Central Asia, because this region is blessed with enormous energy. 立. deposits.. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Map 1.1 Central Asia Sources: Afghanistan and Central Asia Research Information. 1. Stephen Blank, "Energy, Economics, and Security in Central Asia: Russia and Its Rivals,‖ 1995, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub119.pdf access July 2011.. 1.

(7) Despite their distant location and underdeveloped economies, the five postSoviet republics of Central Asia – Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan – have attracted the attention of the United States, Russia, China, and European states. 2 All five states have unexploited energy resources at a time when most kinds of fuels have become much more expensive.. These deposits are crucial to Central Asia‘s integration with the world economy and economic progress. Indeed, energy exports may be the only way these governments can hope for any economic stability and progress in the future. Therefore, whoever controls the energy economy will determine the destiny of these countries.. 政治大. ―The larger countries in and around the region, particularly in South Asia,. 立. comprise major sources of demand for energy, much of which cannot be satisfied from. ‧ 國. 學. domestic sources.‖ 3 Thus there seems to be great potential for regional energy development and trade which can benefit all of the countries of the region. There are. ‧. opportunities for natural gas trade from gas-surplus countries like Turkmenistan and. sit. y. Nat. Iran to gas-deficit countries ex. Pakistan and India.. a. er. io. ―…Currently all Central Asian gas exports (outside that region) are purchased. n. i v 4 But with a pipeline by Gazprom for forward salel to (mainly) CIS countries….‖. Un. C. h eofn gproposals connection to China, and a number c h i to bring Central Asian gas to European markets by pipeline, competition is becoming more intense. It is in this context, Central Asian states gas has become more important in the XXI century and will become increasingly important as major hydrocarbon developments at this is region progress. Fundamental issue to trade natural gas is pipeline system. See map 1.2. 2. Dina R. Spechler and Martin C. Spechler, Central Asia. Trade, energy, and security in the Central Asian arena, Seattle, USA: National Bureau of Asia Research, 2006, p. 219. 3 William Byrd and Martin Raiser, ―Economic cooperation in the wider Central Asia region," 2006, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTSOUTHASIA/556101-1101747511943/21363080/WiderCAWorkingPaperfinal.pdf access July 15 2011. 4 Shamil Midkhatovich Yenikeyeff, "Kazakhstan‘s gas: export markets and export routes,"2008, access July, http://www.oxfordenergy.org/pdfs/NG25.pdf, access July 15 2010.. 2.

(8) All the newly independent Central Asian states are super-presidential authoritarian regimes with unclear procedures for succession to the present leadership. Any future instability would be a threat to the energy supplies and security cooperation outside powers wish to have in the Central Asian arena5.. Turkmenistan is important to world energy markets because of its big oil and natural gas reserves. It may be said that Turkmenistan resembles one big oil-gas field. After years of foreign investment into the country‘s oil and natural gas sectors, the landlocked Central Asian state has recently begun to realize its enormous production potential. Turkmenistan could become a major world energy producer and exporter over the next decade.. 政治大. 立. Under former president Saparmurat Niyazov, Turkmenistan was Central Asia‘s. ‧ 國. 學. most repressive and isolationist state. Similar situation is happening under present president of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov. There has been no sign of. ‧. political liberalization.. y. Nat. io. sit. The Republic of Kazakhstan is the ninth largest territory in the world is located. a. er. near the center of Eurasian continent and neighbors on Russia, China, Iran and. n. i v process during the first Afghanistan. Central Asia was lon the periphery of international. Un. C. h eis nCentral years of independence. Kazakhstan g c h iAsia‘s economic leader. Its gross domestic product (GDP) is greater than that of other four republics combined6.. After strong lobbying Kazakhstan has attained chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in 2010. However, political reforms have not kept pace with economic development. Power remains concentrated in Nazarbayev‘s hands, and opposition politicians come under intense pressure. There is a common interest in preserving stability that may contribute. 5. Dina R. Spechler and Martin C. Spechler, Central Asia. Trade, energy, and security in the Central Asian arena, Seattle: National Bureau of Asia Research, USA 2006, p. 206. 6 "Central Asia‘s energy risks", 2007,, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/centralasia/133_central_asia_s_energy_risks.ashx, access July15 2010.. 3.

(9) towards mitigating disputes. Fortunately, the country as a whole is stable, and the leadership is aware of the potential problems.. Uzbekistan is the second largest natural gas producer in the Commonwealth of Independent States (after Russia) and one of the top ten natural gas-producing countries in the world7. Uzbekistan produces natural gas from 52 fields in the country, with 12 major deposits, accounting for over 95% of Uzbekistan‘s natural gas production8. Uzbekistan is probably the country with the greatest risk of instability among Central Asian states. The regime of President Islam Karimov is one of the most repressive in the former Soviet Union. More than anything, its economic policies have angered the population of over 26 million9 .. 立. ‧ 國. 學. 1.2. Motivation. 政治大. Ever since the breakup of the USSR, the Central Asia States has generated. ‧. intense geopolitical interactions as the new states have sought to create allies to assure. Nat. sit. y. their sovereignty and as external actors have been engaged in the struggle for influence.. er. io. This multi-actors competition has always been and is more complex than 19th century. n. ―Great Game‖ between the Russian and British empires for dominance in Central Asia. a. l. iv. C h is in the main The main difference from old geopolitics U nobject of competition: it is not engchi. anymore about the territory issue but about hydrocarbon resources. Great powers‘ like the USA, China, Russia, Europe, and the key neighbors like Iran, are engaged in competition for these resources.. World economy, despite on temporarily crisis, is rapidly growing. Competition for energy recourses is becoming a key to economic and political prosperity of countries. The politics of energy have been instant foundation to the political and 7. Statistical Review of World Energy 2008, www.bp.com ―BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011‖ British Petroleum , http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review _2011/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/natural_gas_section_2011.pdf, access July 15 2011. 8 Polska Agencja Rozwoju Przedsiębiorczości ―Uzbekistan – Przewodnik dla przedsiębiąrców‖ 2006, http://www.parp.gov.pl/files/74/81/105/uzbekistan.pdf, access July 15 2010. 9 Ibid.. 4.

(10) economic development of the Central Asia region from the very first days of independence. Indeed, the energy security of the nations in the region has been at the heart of their efforts to build sovereign and prosperous states. For producers, the arrangements of governing the exploration and transportation to world markets of their energy resources has been a central element of their foreign policies, and in fact has largely effected their level of meaningful sovereignty. For consumers of energy, levels of dependence on energy-endowed powers have been equally important in determining their ability to formulate their domestic and foreign policies independently.10. Thus, the author does believe that further developments in frame of competition for influence in rich by natural energy resources region of Central Asia will have a. 政治大. significant impact on the world economic and political relationships.. 立. The Purpose of Research and Research Questions. Nat. y. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. 1.3.. io. sit. The main purpose of this research is to analyze the interacting factors, which. a. er. influence the situation of natural gas recourses in post-Soviet area in Central Asia.. n. This paper gives contribution l for Taiwanese science ini vterms of presenting recent. Un. C. h e nregion situation in that vulnerable and important g c hini the world. This master thesis could. be useful for these researchers which are working on the problem of supplies of natural gas in terms of geopolitical context; as well as could be used as additional reading material for the courses related to the political and economical development of Central Asia States. In particular; the following interacting factors will be the objects of the analysis:. 1. Geographical circumstances in Central Asia: the author will describe main geographic obstacles and chances for countries which are located in Central Asia region and analyze whether that location is friendly to secure their political and economical 10. Svante Cornell, and Niklas Nilsson , Europe’s Energy Security: Gazprom’s Dominance and Caspian Supply Alternatives, Washington D.C.: CACI-SRSP, 2007, p.7.. 5.

(11) development or not. Capacity of natural gas resources in Central Asia: the author will examine the capacity of natural gas reserves which are located in Central Asian region and which country could be considered as the richest in terms of gas resources.. 2. Energy state policy of individual states: the author will describe energy strategies of each country and its implementation.. 3. Localization and technical condition of gas transportation infrastructure: old, present, and progress and in future projects. Geopolitical circumstances, transportation projects in implementation that determinates main geopolitical circumstances, which create a. 政治大. significant impact on the results for Central Asian region and rest of the world.. 學. ‧ 國. 立. The main research questions of the thesis are:. ‧. 1. What is the degree of dependency of central Asian States to Russia in frame of. sit. y. Nat. natural gas issue?. er. io. 2. Whether the geopolitical competition between Russia, China, U.S., E.U, and. n. Iran (through the prism of natural a gas distribution) is a threat v or chance for economic. l. n engchi U. C hAsian states? and political development of Central. 1.4.. i. Literature Review. There are quite an amount of empirical literatures written about Central Asian energy issues such as books, articles, official documents. Below the author will briefly describe the main points of the most substantial works that were used during this research. As well during the research amount of statistical data was implemented.. 6.

(12) 1.4.1 Books Jonathan P. Stern ―The Future of Russian gas and Gazprom‖ 11 – this book examines developments in the Russian gas industry since the late 1990s in a domestic and international context and likely developments over the next two decades. Russian gas deliveries will expand from a domestic, CIS and European focus, to a global role encompassing Asian and global markets. Over the same period Gazprom has the potential to become Russia‘s first multinational energy – oil and gas – company. Eugene Rumer and Dmitri Trenin ―Central Asia: Views from Washington, Moscow, and Beijing‖ 12 – the book offers a four-part analysis of the region‘s new. 政治大. importance in world affairs. Authors examine the place of Central Asia in a global. 立. perspective. They look at the region from the standpoint of traditional hegemon Russia,. ‧ 國. 學. new player United States and new economic superpower China.. ‧. Robert Ebel and Rajan Menon ―Energy Conflict in Central Asia and the. y. Nat. Caucasus‖ 13 – this book examines the relationship between competition for energy. io. sit. resources and the propensity for conflict in the Caspian region, taking the discussion. a. er. well beyond issues of pipeline politics and the significance of Caspian oil and gas to. n. i v wealth on political life and the global market. The book examines the impact of energy l. Un. C. h e n g candh iTurkmenistan. In several chapters the economies of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, authors discuss the ways in which Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey are attempting to uphold their energy interests in the newly independent states, and the impact of competition for production contracts and pipeline routes on regional security. Adam N. Stulberg ―Well-oiled diplomacy: strategic manipulation and Russia‘s energy statecraft in Eurasia‖ 14 – this book examines Russia‘s mixed success at 11. Jonathan Stern, The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005. Eugene Rumer and Trenin Dmitri "Central Asia: Views from Washington, Moscow, and Beijing‖, Armonk, N.Y. : M.E. Sharpe, Inc., 2007. 13 Robert Ebel and Menon Rajan "Energy Conflict in Central Asia and the Caucasus", New York, N.Y. : RoutledgeCurzon, USA 2004. 14 Adam N Stulberg, ―Well-Oiled Diplomacy: Strategic Manipulation and Russia's Energy Statecraft in Eurasia,‖ New York: State University of New York Press, 2007. 12. 7.

(13) leveraging energy advantages in Eurasia from 1992 to 2002. Stulberg illustrated in several case studies, including Russia‘s successful natural gas diplomacy toward Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Ian Wybrew-Bond, Jonathan Stern ―Natural Gas in Asia: The Challenges of Growth in China, India, Japan and Korea‖ 15 – this book assesses the economic opportunities, political obstacles and other challenges to these projects. In order to succeed, huge pipeline infrastructure will need to be built over long distances to bring gas to these markets, as well as significant numbers of new LNG terminals. There are chapters on the major current and potential gas markets in Asia: China, India, Japan and Korea, as well as chapters on the potential supply of pipeline gas and LNG to Asia. 政治大. from: Russia, Siberia, and the Far East the Far East and a number of Central Asian and. 立. Middle Eastern countries.. ‧ 國. 學. Simon Pirani ―Russian and CIS Gas Markets and their Impact on Europe‖16 – a. ‧. book dealing with gas markets not only in Russia but in the Commonwealth of. y. Nat. Independent States as a whole could not be more timely There are chapters about of. io. sit. the potential fragility of Central Asian gas contracts with Russia and other potential. a. er. customers. There are also chapters about development of gas production and gas. n. i v importance to any fourth markets in Caspian and Caucasus l countries and it substantial. Un. C. h supplies e n g cmight corridor through which additional gas h i flow to Europe.. David G. Victor and Mark H. Hayes ―Natural Gas and Geopolitics: From 1970 to 2040‖17 – this book investigates the implications of this shift, utilizing historical case studies as well as advanced economic modeling to examine the interplay between economic and political factors in the development of natural gas resources. The contributors aim to shed light on the political challenges, which may accompany a shift to a gas-fed world. 15. Ian Wybrew-Bond, Jonathan Stern, Natural Gas in Asia: The Challenges of Growth in China, India, Japan and Korea, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008. 16 Simon Pirani, Russian and CIS Gas Markets and their Impact on Europe, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009. 17 David Victor and Mark Hayes, Natural Gas and Geopolitics: From 1970 to 2040, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006.. 8.

(14) Michael P. Croissant and Bulent Aras ―Oil and Geopolitics in the Caspian Sea Region‖18 – this book is describe the scramble for access to the vast energy riches of the Caspian Sea basin on the part of regional and global powers has become one of the most important geopolitical developments of the post-Cold War era. This essay collection offers diverse interpretations of the struggle for Caspian oil and gas. Akiria Miyamoto ―Natural gas in Central Asia: industries, markets and export options of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan‖ – the book represents a comprehensive study examines the recent development of the three major gas resource countries in Central Asia. The author assesses the strategies likely to be taken by the. 政治大. Central Asian gas industry, especially with regard to pipeline construction.. 立. ‧ 國. 學. William Byrd and Martin Raiser ―Economic cooperation in the wider Central Asia region‖19 – this book examines big issues that affect regional cooperation and. ‧. development in Central Asia region. One of the chapters analyzes the development and. y. Nat. trade of energy resources in the wider Central Asia region. The Author focuses on. a. er. io. sit. energy security, energy transmission networks, infrastructure and institutions.. n. i v Asia‖20 – by this book Sally Cummings ―Oil, Transition and Security in Central l. Un. C. e nthe the author approaching Central Asiahfrom of geopolitics, transition, oil hi g cperspective. and stability, the authors provide a very broad and diverse analysis of the region, examining domestic and international developments since 1991. The book both provides an introduction to the region and presents advanced research on international pipeline projects, political risk and developments.. 18. Akiria Miyamoto, Natural gas in Central Asia: industries, markets and export options of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008. 19 William Byrd and Martin Raiser, Economic cooperation in the wider Central Asia region, Washington, D.C. : World Bank, 2006. 20 Sally Cummings, Oil, Transition and Security in Central Asia, New York, N.Y. : Routledge, 2003.. 9.

(15) 1.4.2 Articles Shamil Midkhatovich Yenikeyeff "Kazakhstan‘s gas: export markets and export routes"21 - the article is focusing on Kazakh gas export potential, also encompassing more general political and energy issues. Crisis Group Asia Report "Central Asia‘s Energy Risks"22 - the article is about three oil and gas producers in the Central Asia – Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. This overview of energy export, producing raw materials, and internal stability in that region.. 政治大. Vladimir Paramonov and Aleksey Strokov "Structural Interdependence of. 立. Russia & Central Asia in the Oil and Gas Sectors" 23 - this article is about the. ‧ 國. 學. cooperation between Russia and the countries of Central Asia in the oil and gas sphere. The authors believe that this cooperation is the legacy of structural interdependence. ‧. between these countries in the oil, gas, water and electricity sectors bequeathed by the. sit. y. Nat. centrally-planned command economy of the Soviet Union.. a. er. io. Vladimir Paramonov ―The future supply of gas from central Asia to Russia: an. n. expert assessment" 24 - this article l is about the supply ofi v gas from Central Asia to. Un. C. h e nindicators Russia; and shows main performance g c h i of gas sectors of Central Asian countries and plans for the future.. Stanislav Chernyavsky "Central Asian an Era of Change" 25 - this article heightened tensions in Central Asia are due to internal and external factors. The external factors for the rise in tensions include the seizure of local resources by large 21. Shamil Midkhatovich Yenikeyeff, "Kazakhstan‘s gas: export markets and export routes", 2008, http://www.oxfordenergy.org/pdfs/NG25.pdf, access July 15 2010. 22 Crisis Group Asia Report "Central Asia‘s Energy Risks‖, Asia Report N°133, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/central-asia/133-central-asias-energy-risks.aspx, access July 2011 23 Vladimir Paramonov and Strokov Aleksey , The Defense Academy is the United Kingdom "Structural interdependence of Russia & Central Asia in the oil and gas sectors",2008, http://www.da.mod.uk/colleges/arag/documentlistings/ca/07(16)VPEnglish.pdf, access July 15 2010. 24 Vladimir Paramonov ―The future supply of gas from central Asia to Russia: an expert assessment", http://www.da.mod.uk/colleges/arag/document-listings/ca/08%2804%29JP.pdf, access July 15 2010 25 Chernyavsky Stanislav "Central Asian an Era of Change", http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/n_6188 ,access July 15 2010.. 10.

(16) transnational companies, as well as the direct involvement of new actors on this stage: the United States, member countries of the European Union, as well as China and Turkey. Marco Giuli "Nabucco pipeline and the Turkmenistan conundrum" 26 - this paper aims to explore the prospects for Turkmen natural gas participation in the Nabucco pipeline project. Article emphases that despite the improved political landscape in Turkmenistan, several obstacles still persist: among them, the commitment of the new leadership to supply Russia and China as well as the weak prospects for the Trans-Caspian pipeline.. 政治大. Martha Brill Olcott "International Gas Trade in Central Asia: Turkmenistan,. 立. Iran, Russia and Afghanistan"27 - this paper explores the reasons why Turkmenistan. ‧ 國. 學. has found it so difficult to market its gas. It looks at the relative roles played by geopolitical factors, the economics of transport and sale of gas, and how these affected. ‧. the routes Turkmenistan currently uses, as well as the projects that were put on hold.. y. Nat. sit. Stephen Blank " Energy, Economics, and Security in Central Asia: Russia and. a. er. io. Its Rivals"28 - this article attempts to trace the importance of the new forces unleashed. n. by the advent of Central Asianl States by focusing on thei vstruggle around energy and security issues involving them.. Ch. n engchi U. Aleksandra Jarosiewicz and Maciej Flakowski "The. Great. Game. around. Turkmenistan" 29 - this article is about competitors in the ‗Great Game‘, to gain political influence in Turkmenistan and access to hitherto unexploited Turkmen deposits of gas and oil. The authors pointed out that a new stage in the Great Game, which has been played for influence in Central Asia and control of access to its energy 26. Giuli Marco "Nabucco pipeline and the Turkmenistan conundrum", http://www.criaonline.org/Journal/4/CRIA_Summer%2008_Whole%20Issue.pdf , access July 15 2011. 27 Martha Brill Olcott, "International Gas Trade in Central Asia: Turkmenistan, Iran, Russia and Afghanistan" http://www.rice.edu/energy/publications/docs/GAS_InternationalGasTradeinCentralAsia.pdf, access July 15 2011. 28 Stephen Blank, 1995, "Energy, Economics, and Security in Central Asia: Russia and Its Rivals", http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub119.pdf, access July 2011. 29 Jarosiewicz Aleksandra and Flakowski Maciej, , "The Great Game around Turkmenistan", http://www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/files/punkt_widzenia_17.pdf , access July 15 2011.. 11.

(17) resources for many years have been launched, and Turkmenistan has become the main setting for it. The major actors involved are Russia, the United States, China and the European Union.. Michael Fredholm "The Russian energy strategy & energy policy: pipeline diplomacy or mutual dependence?"30 - this article is about the Russian energy policy, export of energy and Russia‘s strategic needs with regard to the energy industry (such as pipelines, export ports, and refineries). Vladimir Paramonov and Aleksey Strokov ―Russian oil and gas projects and investments in Central Asia‖31 - the article represents a review of the current condition. 政治大. of the project and investment activity of Russia and Russian companies.. 立. ‧ 國. 學. Dina R. Spechler and Martin C. Spechler "Trade, Energy, and Security in the Central Asian Arena"32 - this article examines whether the economic structures, socio-. ‧. political conditions, resources, and trade patterns of Central Asia are likely to generate. Methodology and Approach a. iv l C n hengchi U In order to examine the main steps of interaction process between Central Asian n. 1.5.. er. io. sit. y. Nat. significant regional or international conflict in the coming decade.. countries and main players on international arena such as China, USA, Russia European Union, etc. from 1991 till present, the author will follow by concepts of most geopolitical approach in particular, data analysis, identification of origin date, then evidence of localizations. In frame of this method the interpretation of facts is mainly based on chronological principle in combination with topical. In addition, the author approaches the issues within the historical context in order to provide solid. 30. Michael Fredholm "The Russian energy strategy & energy policy: pipeline diplomacy or mutual dependence?,‖ http://www.da.mod.uk/colleges/arag/document-listings/russian/05%2841%29-MF.pdf , access July 15 2011. 31 Paramonov Vladimir and Aleksey Strokov ―Russian oil and gas projects and investments in Central Asia‖, http://www.da.mod.uk/colleges/arag/document-listings/ca/08%2819%29VP%20English.pdf ,access July 15 2011. 32 Dina R. Spechler and Martin C. Spechler "Trade, Energy, and Security in the Central Asian Arena", http://www.nbr.org/publications/strategic_asia/pdf/Preview/SA06/SA06_C_Asia_preview.pdf , access July 2011. 12.

(18) foundational background for clarification of examined issues. However the main emphasis is on the current situation and trends linking the historical context with present situation. The location of the resource also acquires importance, in a certain territory and not in others – there lies the specificity of the territory - and to this, its value as a strategic resource has to be added the high degree of incidence in the economic development of a given country due to its direct use of energy in industrial, residential and commercial activities.. The central problem in the regional level is the instability in internal politics of each country and in the relations among countries of the region. It generates legal insecurity and this makes it difficult the regional integration processes. This point of. 政治大. view becomes important to the strategic roll of gas as a critical variable in the regional. 立. level and to the facts that it transforms into critic the use of the resource gas in this. ‧ 國. 學. level. Its use is determinate by concrete political and economic decisions.. ‧. As well this study implementing so called qualitative method such as investigation why and how of decision making, not just what, where, when, direct. y. Nat. io. sit. observation case studies, analysis of documents and materials.. er. In addition, by using comparative method – according: attitude toward another. n. a. v. l C of the main actors state, economic and political potential n i and the a\mount of natural. hengchi U. gas of each state. The author is trying to compare energy strategies of Central Asian countries and their significant partners such as Russia, China, USA and European Union. Author provides with estimation of energy policy of mentioned above countries and analyzes its effectiveness.. 1.6.. Limitations. Content of this research is limited by the lack of access to some resources due to special permission, which is required by authorities.. 13.

(19) The main scope of covered by this work data and resources are conducted on English, Russian languages. However, the recourses conducted on Central Asian languages remain uncovered due to author‘s limited ability to understand them; and they are still the subjects of exploration. The limitations of this study includes the difficulties to collect first hand information, such as interview, and access to up to date data, the regulations of volume of the Master‘s thesis; as well as limited possibilities to analyze periodical materials written on Central Asian Languages. However, the author believes there are further theoretical studies should be done on the topic of this research due to its huge. 政治大. influence on the behavior and strategy of the main actors on international arena.. 立. ‧ 國. 學. 1.7.. Structure of Thesis. ‧. y. Nat. First component of this study introduces the subject of the thesis and explains. n. al. er. io. employed methodology and consulted sources.. sit. its background, motivation, objectives and main research questions, as well as. i Un. Ch. v. Next chapter two is describing e thencapacity g c h i of Central Asian states in terms of natural gas resources, surveys related to its geographical conditions and obstacles, like lack of sea or mountainous of terrain. It also tackles the problem of infrastructure – the most fragile base for gas industry in this region and focuses on network of gas pipelines, which is the key to understanding of energy policy in CAS. Subject of chapter three is Central Asian states‘ dependency on Russia. This old dependency inborn from Soviet era, and is based on ―Central Asia Center‖ gas network and is used by Russia to exploit Central Asian natural gas resources. This chapter tries to answer the question how these states attempt to overcome this old dependency. 14.

(20) Chapter four introduces the issue of new dependency of Central Asian states, mostly on China. China has become a new sponsor able to build new gas pipelines from Central Asia. This new developed infrastructure allowed Central Asian States to diversify possibilities to sell their gas for better price. In this chapter the other actors mentioned such as USA, European Union and Iran. Even though their plans have not fully developed as yet, they pose a real alternative for the future.. Last part of this paper is a concluding chapter. It discusses the results and provides a combined analysis of theoretical and empirical aspects of this paper and also perspective for future research on this subject.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. 15. i Un. v.

(21) Chapter 2 Natural gas in CAS. 2.1.. Gas Capacity in CAS. Central Asia has significant proven reserves of oil (1–2% of the world total, perhaps more with further exploration) and 3.8% of proven gas reserves33. These totals are approximately the same as those of the North Sea. However Central Asia‘s output will probably never reach that of Norway and the United Kingdom owing to logistical, technical, financial, and political problems. Predicted gas production in 2010 might. 政治大 energy supplies have regional importance and offer alternative sources should other 立. reach 210 bcm per year, about 2–3% of world consumption34. Though modest, these. regions falter. See figure 2.1. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Sources Statistical Review of World Energy 2010, British Petroleum. Figure 2.1 Central Asia Natural Gas Balances – proven reserves (Tcm). 33. Dina R. Spechler and Martin C. Spechler ―Central Asia. Trade, energy, and security in the Central Asian arena‖, USA: National Bureau of Asia Research, 2006, p.215 34 Dina R. Spechler and Martin C. Spechler, Central Asia. Trade, energy, and security in the Central Asian arena , Seattle, National Bureau of Asia Research, 2006, p.215.. 16.

(22) This figure shows which country in the region, has the most significant proven reserves of natural gas. Turkmenistan as a biggest potential player has many possibilities, but to reach these possibilities is necessary to build new pipelines and refineries.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. Nat. sit. y. Sources: Statistical Review of World Energy 2010, British Petroleum. er. io. Figure 2.2 Central Asia Natural Gas Balances in 2010 (Bcm). al. n. iv n C This figure shows which country region is the biggest net importer of gas. h einnthe gchi U. Most of the natural gas CAS states export to Russia and next European Union. From. 2009 China joined these actors. Turkmenistan is the biggest beneficiary of that change.. Turkmenistan is a country most important (See figure 2.2) to world energy markets because of its big oil and natural gas reserves. In fact, the whole territory of Turkmenistan appears to be one big oil-gas field (See map 2.1). Turkmenistan is the largest Central Asia gas exporter and has relatively small population (about 4 million35). Turkmenistan could become a major world energy producer and exporter over next decade. See graph 2.1. 35. Glenn E. Curtis, ―Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan- country studies‖ USA, 1997, p. 293.. 17.

(23) At the end of 2010 British Petroleum (BP) the revised upwards its estimate of proved natural gas reserves in Turkmenistan to 2.8 trillion cubic meters, which accounts for 1.5 % of world‘s reserves36. This estimate is putting the country on a par with Norway (1. 7%). Most of Turkmenistan's natural gas reserves are located in the Amu Darya basin in the east, the Murgab Basin, and the South Caspian basin in the west. 80 70 60. 50 40 30. 立. 0. Production. 學. 10. ‧ 國. 20. 政治大 Export. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 12.4. 21.3. 43.8. 47.9. 49.9. 55.1. 54.4. 58.8. 62.2. 67.4. 66.1. 36.4. 42.4. 10.3. 11.3. 12.6. 12.9. 13.2. 14.6. 15.5. 16.6. 18.9. 21.9. 20.5. 19.9. 22.6. Nat. sit. y. ‧. 16.1. Consumption 10.1. Sources Statistical Review of World Energy 2010, British Petroleum. io. n. al. er. Graph 2.1 Gas Consumption and Production in Turkmenistan (Bcm). i Un. Ch. v. e n g c with The Turkmen governments together h i several foreign companies are planning to produce offshore associated gas reserves from its section of the Caspian Sea. Turkmenistan has committed itself to exporting 50 bcm per year to Russia under 25-years contract 37 . Therefore, Turkmenistan‘s short-to mid-term objectives is to develop an independent natural gas export infrastructure that does not have to pass through Russian territory. It also agreed to provide China with 30 bcm annually for 30 years starting in late 200938. Next step is to build new pipeline to Europe.. 36. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011‖ British Petroleum ,http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_ene rgy_review_2011/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/natural_gas_section_2011.pdf, access July 15 2011. 37 Morten Anker, Baev Pavel, Brunstad Bjorn , Overland Indra and Torjesen Stin , The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025, The Netherlands, Asmsterdam: EburonNederland, 2010, p.65. 38 Ibid., p 30.. 18.

(24) 政治大. 立. Sources: ROGTEC Magazine. ‧ 國. 學. Map 2.1.Turkmenistan Oil and Gas. ‧. Turkmenistan‘s output dropped throughout the 1990 from 57.7 bcm to 13.2 bcm. y. Nat. in 199239. In 1999 in the wake of Turkmen-Russian agreement production skyrocketed. io. sit. to 21.3 billion cubic meters and continued to increase before reaching an estimated. n. a. producer after Russia in the former l Soviet bloc40.. Ch. engchi. er. 62.2 billion cubic meters in 2006 - placing the country as the second largest gas. i Un. v. All major gas fields in Turkmenistan have been producing for more than 25 years and are running low. If the quantity extracted does not enable the quotas for Russia and China to be met, Turkmenistan will face a difficult problem: which customer to satisfy? This could cause problems for cooperation in the energy sector for the entire region, not only between Russia and Turkmenistan but also between Russia and China.. Kazakhstan is a country important to the world energy markets because of its big reserves. In terms of proven reserves of natural gas rank it among the world‘s top 39 40. ―Нефтегазо-вая Вертикаль‖http://www.ngv.ru/article.aspx?articleID=22567, access July 15 2010. U.S. Energy Information Administration,http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Centasia/NaturalGas.html, access July 15 2010.. 19.

(25) 2041 couturiers. With population 1742 million people, Kazakhstan can allow itself to become a main natural gas exporter in Central Asia. See graph 2.2. After years of foreign investment into the country's oil and natural gas sectors, the landlocked Central Asian state has recently begun to realize its enormous production potential. The main oil gas company in Kazakhstan is state-run KazMunNaiGas 43 . Kazakhstan could become a major world energy producer and exporter over the next decade. Main destination for Kazakhstan gas is Russia and Ukraine. Kazakhstan exports most of its gas volumes through KazRosGaz which at present has a de facto monopoly on gas exports from Kazakhstan.44 KazRosGaz is a joint venture between Gazprom (50%) and KaZmuNaiGaz (50%).. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Sources: Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, British Petroleum. Graph 2.2 Gas Consumption and Production in Kazakhstan (bcm). 41. Anne Peck, , Economic development in Kazakhstan, New York : RoutledgeCurzon, 2004 p.193. Robert E. Ebel, Energy choices in the Near Abroad, Washington, D.C. : The CSIS Press,1997, p.69. 43 КазМунайГаз http://www.kmg.kz/page.php?page_id=1009&lang=2, access July 15 2010. 44 The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies http://www.oxfordenergy.org/pdfs/NG25.pdf,access July 15 2010. 42. 20.

(26) At the end of 2010, British Petroleum (BP) revised upwards its estimate of proved natural gas reserves in Kazakhstan to 1.8 trillion cubic meters45, with estimated undiscovered reserves of 6.2 trillion cubic meters46. These estimates are putting the country on par with Turkmenistan. Most of Kazakhstan's natural gas reserves are located in the west of the country, with roughly 25 % 47 of proven reserves situated in the Karachaganak field. Karachaganak field located about 150 km east from the city of Oral (Uralsk) in the northwest of Kazakhstan (See map 2.2). It is estimated to contain 1.2 trillion cubic meters of gas and 1 billion tones of liquid condensate and oil48.. 立. 政治大. Karachaganak field. ‧ 國. 學 Tengiz field. ‧. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Sources : Energypedia. Map 2.2 Main gas field Kazakhstan. 45. ―BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011‖ British Petroleum , http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review _2011/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/natural_gas_section_2011.pdf , access July 15 2011. 46 Croissant, Michael and Aras Bulet, Oil and geopolitics in the Caspian Sea region, Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1999 p.182. 47 Energy Information Administration http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Kazakhstan/NaturalGas.html, access July15 2011. 48 Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the USA, http://kazcham.com/?p=128, access July 15 2011.. 21.

(27) Second larger Kazakhstan natural gas and oil field is Tengiz (See map 2.2) located in northwestern Kazakhstan's low-lying wetlands along the northeast shores of the Caspian Sea. The country is poised to become a net exporter in 200849.. Uzbekistan has smaller proven reserves, but is an established producer with registered output of 55.8 bcm 50 . Of this total 6, 5 bcm is exported, mostly to neighboring states, creating an important lever as well as irritant to these states‘ mutual relations51. At the end of 2010 British Petroleum (BP) revised upwards its estimate of proved natural gas reserves in Kazakhstan to 1.68 trillion cubic meters52. Uzbekistan because high domestic consumption and large losses due ailing infrastructure, gas export account only about 20% of production53. Most of the export goes to Russia,. 政治大. with some to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as well. The export potential seems to be. 立. drying up. Uzbekistan is therefore no petroleum superpower, although it does play a. ‧ 國. 學. limited role in the natural gas sector. In longer – term perspective, Uzbekistan will have to step up its output if it is to remain a net exporter.. ‧. y. Nat. Uzbekistan produces similar amount of gas to Turkmenistan. But much larger. n. al. er. io. greater domestic requirements. See graph 2.3. sit. population (23 millions54) implies that much less gas is available for export due the. i Un. Ch. v. e n g cpopular Also is greater difficulty in co-opting h i support with smaller amount of export revenue. Its other staple commodity is cotton. Hence Uzbekistan conforms less closely to model of a rentier economy or state more to one of simple repressive autocracy.. 49. Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Kazakhstan/NaturalGas.html, access July 15 2011. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011‖ British Petroleum , http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review _2011/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/natural_gas_section_2011.pdf, access July 15 2011. 51 Dina R. Spechler and Martin C. Spechler Central Asia. Trade, energy, and security in the Central Asian arena, Seattle: National Bureau of Asia Research, 2006, p. 205. 52 ―BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011,‖ British Petroleum , http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review _2011/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/natural_gas_section_2011.pdf, access July 15 2011. 53 Morten Anker, Baev Pavel, Brunstad Bjorn , Overland Indra and Torjesen Stin , The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025 , The Netherlands, Asmsterdam: EburonNederland, 2010, p. 31. 54 Glenn Curtis ,, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - country studies, Washington, D.C. : Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, 1997, p. 377. 50. 22.

(28) 政治大. 立. ‧ 國. 學 ‧. Sources : Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, Britisch Petroleum. sit. y. Nat. Graph 2.3 Gas Consumption and Production in Uzbekistan (bcm). a. er. io. Uzbekistan‘s main problems are a lack of sufficient foreign investment,. n. i v consumers. Country is political instability and long l geographical distances from. Un. C. h e markets i serve (e.g. Europe) and lack geographically far from the end-use n g c hthey sufficient pipeline infrastructure to export more hydrocarbons. Uzbekistan and wants to diversify export routes for their resources outside of the Russian-controlled pipelines, but each of them must seek to obtain capital, technical assistance, and political support for alternative pipelines.. At present, Russian strategic interests mainly concern the three Central Asian states that possess commercial reserves of hydrocarbons: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. As yet no reserves of hydrocarbons in commercial quantities have been discovered in the other two countries of the region – Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and for this reason Russian interests there are little concerned with questions of 23.

(29) extracting and importing hydrocarbons but are mainly aimed at opening the market for petroleum products.55. Gazprom is the only real presence in Tajikistan. So far, no significant commercial reserves of oil and gas have been revealed. The high price of hydrocarbons is stimulating Gazprom‘s interest, firstly in the Tajik market for petroleum products and only secondly in the potential gas reserves of the country. In Kyrgyzstan, there is only one Russian company – Gazprom. No commercial reserves of oil and gas have been discovered so far in Kyrgyzstan56 In 2003 Gazprom signed long-term (25 years)57 cooperation agreements with. 政治大. the prime minister of Tadzhikistan and Kirgizstan. Neither country is a major producer. 立. nor is consumer of gas and demand in both countries significantly less than 1 Bcm per. ‧ 國. 學. year.58 This is mostly imported from Uzbekistan. Both agreements joint development of exploration and production upgrading and expansion of facilities. Agreements also. ‧. expressed in very general language, the possibility of Gazprom selling gas in both. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. countries from its Uzbeks developments.. Ch. engchi. 55. i Un. v. Dr Vladimir Paramonov and Dr Aleksey Strokov The Defense Academy is the United Kingdom "Structural interdependence of Russia & Central Asia in the oil and gas sectors",2008, http://www.da.mod.uk/colleges/arag/documentlistings/ca/07(16)VPEnglish.pdf access July15 2010. 56 Ibid. 57 Gazprom, http://www.gazprom.com/production/central-asia/, access July 15 2011. 58 Jonathan Stern, The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005, p. 81.. 24.

(30) 2.2.. Gas Pipeline in CAS. Legacy after USSR, gas pipelines and plants. Old and present infrastructure.. The gas can be transported in two ways – through pipeline or as liquefied natural gas (LNG). Three kinds of pipelines can be defined—domestic, cross-border, and transit. The key in differentiating between the three types is the nature of the governing jurisdiction. Domestic pipelines are within an existing sovereign territory. Sovereign is defined as the national or regional ability to unilaterally abrogate agreements59. Such pipelines are subject to the laws and regulations of that territory. Cross-border pipelines directly link the producer state of oil and gas with the consumer. 政治大 terms of transit are enshrined in an agreement that, among other things, determines the 立 state. Transit pipelines cross a third sovereign territory to get to market. Normally the. transit payments. These are payments made to the transit government. Normally. ‧ 國. 學. payments include a transit fee, but they can also set the terms under which the transit country can lift off take.. ‧ sit. y. Nat. LNG ―Liquefied natural gas, or methane which has been converted to liquid. er. io. phase by cooling it to -163°C. LNG is shipped in special carriers. One tone of LNG. n. corresponds to roughly 1 400 a cubic meters of natural gas in gaseous form under a. l. iv. C h accounts for only standard condition‖ 60 . Today, LNG U n share 10 percent of trade mostly in Asia61.. engchi. Construction of new routes of transmission is extremely costly. The carriage of LNG is competitive, if an alternative pipeline would have a length of more than 5 000 kilometers (or 3000 km, where the road leads into the sea)62. A majority of the world's LNG supply comes from countries with large natural gas reserves. These countries include Algeria, Australia, Brunei, Indonesia, Libya, Malaysia, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar,. 59. The National Bureau of Asian Research, http://www.nbr.org/publications/specialreport/pdf/preview/SR23_preview.pdf, access July 15 2011. 60 Gassco, http://www.gassco.no/wps/wcm/connect/Gassco-EN/Gassco/Home/om-gassco/ access July 15 2011. 61 Wirtualny Nowy Przemysl, http://www.wnp.pl/artykuly/gdzie-rura-nie-dojdzie-tam-lng,5121.html, access July 15 2011. 62 Ibid.. 25.

(31) and63 . If the gas is to be transported to remote regions of the world- particularly LNG - is the only option. Flowing from Arab countries to Japan, Taiwan or South Korea.64. Speaking about the transport of large quantities of crude oil and natural gas on the surface, transport via pipelines is the only economically viable way. Compared to the other, it has a lower cost per unit. Although pipelines can be built even under the sea, it is very economically and technically demanding process, so most of this kind oil is transported by tankers at sea. Wherever possible, pipelines are built on the surface of the earth.. Pipelines and the rest of infrastructure date back to the times of Soviet Union.. 政治大. The countries of Central Asia are all connected through their gas pipelines with Russia.. 立. In Russia and Turkmenistan gas is sent mainly to gas pipelines. Central Asian Center. ‧ 國. 學. gas pipelines built between 1960 and 1988 is controlled by Gazprom 65. Turkmenistan and other Central Asian countries do not have any other natural gas pipelines that. ‧. would reach long-way customers in Europe and Asia bypassing Russia. Since all of the. y. Nat. pipelines connecting the region to the world markets were owned by Gazprom, and. a. er. io. sit. routed through Russia, Turkmen natural gas was squeezed out of the market. n. v built in 1960-1988 is Central Asia Center gas lpipeline (See map 2.3) iwas Un. C. h e nin gthecfields controlled by Gazprom. Pipelines begin h i of oil and gas extraction and run. through Russia before entering Europe. In Russia and Kazakhstan gas is being sent mainly by gas pipelines.. 63. California Energy Commission http://www.energy.ca.gov/lng/faq.html#650, access July 15 2011. Wirtualny Nowy Przemysl http://www.wnp.pl/wiadomosci/69419.html, access July 15 2011. 65 Jonathan Stern, The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005, p.58. 64. 26.

(32) Sources: HydrocarbonsTechnology.com. 立. 政治大. Map 2.3 Central Asia Center gas pipelines. ‧ 國. 學. On 2007, Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan agreed to construct a new. ‧. Caspian pipeline66 parallel to the existing CAC pipeline. See map 2.4. The pipeline. y. Nat. will be built between Belek compressor station in Turkmenistan and Alexandrov Gay. io. sit. compressor station. Capacity of the new pipeline will be 20 bcm a year67. Construction. n. al. er. of the pipeline should be start in the second half of 2009, but has not started as of yet.. Ch. engchi. 66. i Un. v. Gazprom, Pre-Caspian gas pipeline http://www.gazprom.com/production/projects/pipelines/pg/, access July 15 2011. Kazahstan Government site, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkménistan agree to renovate the Caspian gas pipeline, http://en.government.kz/site/news/052007/16, access July 15 2011. 67. 27.

(33) Sources: Gazprom. 立. 政治大. Map 2.4 Russian planning gas pipeline in Central Asia - Pre-Caspian Project. ‧ 國. 學. Main hydrocarbon fields: Tengiz and Karachaganak are both located in western. ‧. part of Kazakhstan. See map 2.5. Unfortunately, they are not connected with southeast. y. Nat. and north of the country, where most of Kazakh population and industry are. its own gas via Orienburg which is located in Russia. This plant is. a. er. 68. io. reexport. sit. concentrated. Because of lack of infrastructure (refineries) Astana needs to export and. n. iv l processing 8 - 9 bcm of Kazakhstan‘s gas per year69 (allnKazakhstan export). In Soviet. Ch. U. e considered n g c h i Kazakhstan to be a transit area for times central administrators in Moscow. the gas deliveries from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. As a result, the gas trunk pipelines did not cover the entire territory of Kazakhstan, and were not linked to a national network.. 68. Adam N Stulberg ,,Well-Oiled Diplomacy: Strategic Manipulation and Russia's Energy Statecraft in Eurasia,” New York: State University of New York Press, 2007, p.118. 69 The Jamestown Foundation Kazakhstan‘s growing gas exports to go Russia‘s way http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=32749, access July 15 2011.. 28.

(34) Sources: Gazprom, author. Map 2.5 Plant in Orienburg. 政治大 which will be jointly owned by Gazprom and KaZmuNaiGaz. The Kazakh Company 立 In 2007, Russia and Kazakhstan reached an agreement on the Orenburg plant,. will pay 350 million USD for its 50% stake and will also invest an additional 250. ‧ 國. 學. million USD in the modernization of the plant‘s facilities, which will require a total. ‧. estimated investment of 500 million USD70. By 2012 the Orenburg processing plant will be upgraded to handle more gas from the Orenburg (Russia) and Karachaganak. Nat. er. io. sit. y. (Kazakhstan) hydrocarbon fields.. n. Russia tries to keep its a monopoly in exporting Central Asian gas and denies. l. iv. n buys about 58 bcm71 per another states independent accessCtohthe Central Asia. URussia engchi. year of Central Asian gas. ―A recent agreement to pay market prices‖. 72. for gas. effective since 2009 will secure steady gas supplies for Gazprom and enable him to keep a middleman position to ship natural gas from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan to Russia and on to Europe.. Russia is afraid of the scenario in which her clients can find another supplier. Russia's way to reduce the potential competition is current construction of the gas pipeline from Eastern Siberia to China. .Siberian natural gas field could provide China 70. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies http://www.oxfordenergy.org/pdfs/NG25.pdf, access July 15 2010. EconoMonitor Energy Power Play: Courting Central Asia http://www.rgemonitor.com/economonitormonitor/252525/energy_power_play_courting_central_asia, access July 15 2011 72 UK Reuters, Kazakhstan sees 70 pct gas price rise from 2009 http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL1840067520080318, access July 15 2011. 71. 29.

(35) with natural gas in the next decade. ―Since the natural gas would not arrive until 2012 at the earliest and since China is pursuing other natural gas import plans in the meantime, it is possible that Russian natural gas will not have a buyer‖73 .. In 1997 Turkmenistan launched the $190-million Korpezhe-Kurt Kui pipeline to Iran74 . See map 2.6 It is the first natural gas export pipeline in Central Asia to bypass Russia. This 200 km pipeline can reach Iran and other geographically close countries like Armenia or Azerbaijan. Its capacity is around 10-12 bcm75 per year but deliveries to date have fallen far short this level. According to terms of the 25-year contract between Turkmenistan and Iran, 35%76 of Turkmen gas pipe by this pipeline is a payment for Iran's contribution to building this project. ―In 2001 Turkmenistan. 政治大. and Armenia signed an agreement‖77 to buy gas to Armenia via the Korpezhe-Kurt Kui. 立. pipeline and next across Iran.. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Sources: Gazprom, author. Map 2.6 Korpezhe-Kurt Kui pipelin. 73. Energy Information Administration http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Russia/NaturalGas.html, access July15 2010. The Jamestown Foundation, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=33590 access July 2011. 75 Sally Cummings, ―Oil, Transition and Security in Central Asia‖ , U.K. 2003, p.152 76 Energy Information Administration http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/caspgase.html July15 2010. 77 Ibid. 74. 30.

(36) Competitive proposal to allow diversification gas transportation in Central Asia is Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan-China Pipeline. See map 2.7. In 2007, Kazakhstan and China reached an agreement on the construction and operation of the KazakhstanChina gas pipeline network. The first pipeline (running through Southern Kazakhstan) will be the Kazakh section of the Turkmenistan–China gas pipeline. Turkmenistan will be the major supplier for the 7000 km pipeline. Kazakhstan, which hosts 1300 km of the pipeline, plans to extend its part in the future, connecting it to its own gas fields near the Caspian. Construction works of Kazakhstan section started on July 2008. Uzbekistan also started construction of its part this month while Turkmenistan launched its segment in 2007 78. 政治大 Kazakhstan, was officially launched 立 on 2009. Cost of construction – US$6.7 billion. The gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to China, which runs via Uzbekistan and 79. ‧ 國. 學. Ownership – each section is owned by a company in which CNPC and the local partner hold 50% of shares.. ‧. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Sources: HydrocarbonsTechnology.com. Map 2.7 Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan-China pipeline. 78. Upstream the international oil and gas newspaper http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article158831.ece, access July 15 2011. 79 Centre for Eastern Studies ―The Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline considerably strengthens China's position in Central Asia‖ http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/eastweek/2009-12-16/turkmenistan-china-gas-pipeline-considerablystrengthens-chinas-posit, access July 15 2011.. 31.

(37) The launch of the pipeline is of great economic significance for the region because it offers the Central Asian states access to an alternative gas buyer to Russia, and because they can use this new position in negotiations with Gazprom to maximize their gas export revenues. The main consequence of this process is that Russia has lost some influence in the region while China has strengthened its position. The new gas pipeline is the result of the Central Asian states' policy of gaining more independence, and China's economic expansion in the region aimed at securing supplies of energy resources and building up its political influence, among other goals.. The new gas pipeline is around 2000 km long and will connect to a 5000 kmlong internal Chinese gas pipeline (now under construction) at the Chinese-Kazakh. 政治大. border. Its target capacity, which it is planned to reach in 2012, is 40 bcm. This means. 立. that the pipeline will enable the Central Asian states to transmit a substantial portion of. ‧ 國. 學. their gas exports to China (Central Asian gas exports totaled around 65 bcm in 2008). The pipeline's capacity may be increased to above 40 bcm. No information on the. ‧. price of gas is available. The price discussed in January 2008 was around US$195 per. io. sit. y. Nat. 1000 cubic meters80.. a. er. Another planned project is Trans-Caspian Pipeline. See map 2.8. Proposed. n. Trans-Caspian Pipeline wouldl bypass both Russia and i vIran to carry Turkmen gas. Un. C. hen across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan. This h i pipeline could connect to the g cproposed South Caucasus pipeline flowing gas to Turkey and then to the planned Nabucco. pipeline to southeastern Europe (From Turkey to Austria). This project has several serious problems. None of which so far been resolved. European consortium led by Austrian OMV doesn‘t have enough financial recourse for starting build the pipeline. The implementation is always postponed to future. Next serious problem is the sources of supply.. 80. Centre for Eastern Studies ―The Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline considerably strengthens China's position in Central Asia― http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/eastweek/2009-12-16/turkmenistan-china-gas-pipeline-considerablystrengthens-chinas-posit, access July 15 2011.. 32.

(38) Sources: STRATFOR. Map 2.8 Possible Nabucco and Trans-Caspian Pipelin. 政治大. Possible supplier – Turkmenistan has under big Russian pressure to reject. 立. European offer. Kazakhstan‘s attitude to the trans-Caspian project will depend on U.S.. ‧ 國. 學. and European political support to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in the face of Russian pressure as well as on clearly attractive Western commercial offers to Kazakhstan and. ‧. Turkmenistan. Until now that plans have not been put into operation.. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. 33. i Un. v.

(39) Chapter 3 CAS Dependency on Old Russian Pipeline Russia‘s economy is heavily dependent on oil and natural gas exports. Russia exports huge amount of natural gas. See graph 3.1 According to IMF and World Bank estimates, the oil and gas sector generated more than 60 percent of Russia‘s export revenues (64% in 2007)81. Exports of natural gas to Europe gives the most important benefits in Russia, because domestic prices are very low, do not even cover the cost of extraction. Exports 26 % raw material to the EU brings Russia (Gazprom) 60 % of revenues82. Russia's proven reserves of natural gas are higher than those of any other state, being 27 % of the global total, while Central Asia is a further 5%83.. 政治大. 立. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Sources Statistical Review of World Energy 2010, British Petroleum. Graph 3.1.Gas Consumption and Production in Russia (bcm) Kremlin policy makers still show a tendency towards the state‘s influence in the energy sector84. Taxes on oil and gas exports and extraction are high. Russia‘s stateinfluenced oil and gas companies are obtaining controlling stakes in previously 81. Energy Information Administration http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Russia/Background.html, access July 15 2011. Polityka, Krotki kurs gazownictwa ,http://www.polityka.pl/krotki-kurs-gazownictwa/Lead33,1091,279283,18/ access July 15 2011. 83 Michael Wesley ―Energy security in Asia,‖ New York : Routledge, 2007 p.134. 84 GlobalSecurity.org , http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/energy.htm, access July 15 2011. 82. 34.

(40) foreign-led projects. State-owned export facilities have grown fast, while private projects have progressed more slowly or have been obstructed by state-owned companies or by few government agencies. Private sector is being terrorized and forced to cooperate with Kremlin.85 Foreign investors cannot enjoy clear rules and free market. Their activities are controlled by the Russian government. 86. The collapse of the former Soviet Union triggered unprecedented changes that galvanized and refashioned Central Asia. The countries that evolved from the dissolution of the Soviet Union, as well as countries that had to reform entirely because of their dependence of the Soviet Union (Moscow). The Russian strategic objectives in Central Asia have few similarities with those from the Soviet era.. 政治大. Russian aspirations for national prestige, present benefits and considerations about the. 立. future strategic prospects require the maintenance of Russia‘s more or less controlling. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. influence over the southern belt of the Commonwealth of Independence States.. From 1991 Russia has been strengthening its control over the gas and oil. y. Nat. pipelines. The Kremlin has been said to use its control of the pipelines "as a lever to. io. sit. control the regional states‖ 87 . Economics and politics moved to main point of the. a. er. agenda in terms of trade and transit of post-Soviet gas. The former Soviets states in. n. i v relationships with Russia Central Asia were compelled lto create formal commercial. Un. C. he which did not exist during Soviet era. Fornthe h i Federation, two distinct markets g cRussian have become important. Southern, cheaper sellers from the ―near abroad‖ came from CIS countries or former republics. The other market was dominated by the attractive buyers from Europe.. Russia's continuous effort to subordinate Central Asia to its policies is the most strongly perceived aspect of this rivalry. However, Central Asian states are not helpless against foreign machinations. On the contrary, they are enhancing their ability 85. Khodorkovsky & Lebedev Communications Center, http://www.khodorkovskycenter.com/ , access July 15 2011. Robert Amsterdam, Perspectives on Global Politics and Business http://www.robertamsterdam.com/2008/03/bp_pulls_employees_from_russia.htm, access July 15 2011. 87 Elizabeth Van Wie Davis, Azizian Rouben, Islam, oil, and geopolitics: Central Asia after September 11, Lanham, Md. : Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., USA 2007, p.207. 86. 35.

(41) to deal freely with Russia's rivals. The creation of commercial relationships between CAS and Russia has been a painful process. Transit of natural gas is a key issue because all pipelines taking Central Asian gas to Europe pass through Russia.. Hence, Gazprom's complete control of those supplies. In the past, all Russian export to Europe was transited through Ukraine, and around 15 % 88 also passed through Moldova. With the opening of the Yamal pipeline Belarus came increasingly important country. Central Asia gas deposit could restrict Russian ability to compete in world markets with rapidly increased rates of demand for fossil fuels. According to Steven Bank, ―Given the centrality of oil and gas to Russia‘s economy that would be a catastrophe‖89 Central Asia‘s natural gas situation is specific because of the location. 政治大. and size of natural gas deposits, the current need for pipelines, and the much larger. 立. ownership role of Russia.90 See map 3.1. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Sources: Gazprom. Map 3.1 Russian gas pipelines in Central Asia. 88. Jonathan P. Stern, ―The future Russian gas and Gazprom‖, U.K. 2005, p.66 Stephen Bank, ‖Russo-Chinese energy relations: politics in command‖ U.K. 2006, p. 23 90 Dina Spechler and Spechler Martin, Central Asia. Trade, energy, and security in the Central Asian arena, Seattle: National Bureau of Asia Research, 2006, p. 218. 89. 36.