中國因應全球氣候變遷之政策與成效評估

(1)

!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123 3 ₁

!"#$%&'()*+,-

./012

∗

!

"

#$

!!"#$%&!'()*+,-./01"

%

&

'$

!!"#$%&!'()*+,-."

(

)

*$

!!"#$%&!'()*+,23"

!

"

!

!"#$%&''()!Principal Component Analysis"*+,-./0 123456!GCCTI"*789:;<=>?@ABCD&EFGHIJ K 1971 LM 2007 L*GHANK 92 O?PFQRSTUVWXGHIJ Y*Z?[/012\]34^K_`a?P*b?c[de^fa?PF 9g*hijklmnop*Z?qrs/012at@BC*u&Ev

wxHyzt*{|BC}[~ GCCTI `at!"x

uv`at!]a"F !"#$!"##$%&'()*+,-./0&1234&15267 * * *

!"#$ %

! 20 "#$%&'()*+,-./0"1234 1956 "5 2005 "- 50 " 6$78 10 "9:;<= 0.13 :$=>?@A 100 "-BC3DE9:-1>$F G?HIJK9:1>-BC3LMNO$HIPJQ-<=R:4 1961S2003 * !"#$%&'()*+,-./01234*56789:0;<=>?@ABCDEF7GHI JK0LMA

(2)

JK7"1.8TU$V=51993S2003"-3.1TU$!WX?$YZ[\]^_6% &`abcdefgh!Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC"-ijkl mno$HIPJQ-<=R:pqr2Rst$1993S2008 "JK<=R:u 3.5 TU$v1993S2003"pwxo0.4TU3"yz{$%&`a-D|}m~3

M$D|-%&à~$p,-32006 "+ -!The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review"$G2100 "$HI9:=x 2_{!5 :3NO$ # 10 "$HI¡¢uM£o 7} ¤¥¦-§¨3WX?$HI©}-ª«¬$®¯°HI¡¢±² 20%$³´G 20 µ¶B·µ¸¹$º 1930 "§µ¸¡¢»¼½&-¾¿$ÀMª«¬?ÁÂÃ Ä3# Å M $ µ ¸ Æ ] ^ _ Ç ] È É Ê Ç k l ËÌ Í Î Ï $ Ð x : Ñ % & ` a - ~ ÒÓt$ÔiuÕÖ-×ØnÙu$JK%9-`}3Ú?$ÛnÙÜÝBÞß àáâ$ãä]ÈÉÊå+æHI%9-çèéê$ëìçèÆ]-JK9:3â í$î°ïð¯ñòóÆ]JK%9$ôõö÷Æ]^øÍ+ùúû%&à -NO3üáýDþÿ-!}ÁÂ"H#$û%&'Ç¥]Ç2()*+,! ýDP-]c$-.Û?µ¸Æ]-/0$13 ZM$23ÎÏ4klËÌ556o$×HI%&à-78ºnÙ3üá ¥]9:;<=!Environmental Protection Agency, EPA">! 26 Ô%&ànÙ$# ö ÷ % & ` a ú ! " Í 9 : - N O 3$µ ¸ é # k l ! World Resources

Institute"$%o 16 ÔnÙ$&u%&'(nÙd)!Climate Analysis Indicators Tool, CAIT"3%¥]]c*+,-+.=!National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NASA"$/í0}1!CO

2"2:ÇHIE9:ÇDþÇ3þ4PJQ) 5 Ôn

Ù$#×Ø%&4`3&

569:7!European Environment Agency, EEA"88599:%;<=4%& àNO-+Zt>$?@A 49 Ô%&4BCnÙ$6D59Æ]EF$GHéI JwKLû%&à-MN$/O%&à-PQÍR.ST)UQ3'V]9:`}

!_{!! Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report ! Cambridge:} Cambridge University Press, 2007".

!_{!" Working Group I, “Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate} Change, http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf.

!_{!# Nicolas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review!Cambridge: Cambridge University} Press, 2006".

!_{!$ “Climate Change Indicators in the United States 2012,” United States Environmental Protection Agency,} http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/pdfs/climateindicators-full-2012.pdf.

!_{!% “Climate Analysis Indicators Tool,” World Resources Institute, http://cait2.wri.org/wri.}

!_{!& “Key Indicators in Global Climate Change,” National Aeronautics and Space Administration, http://climate.} nasa.gov/keyIndicators/.

(3)

!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123 3 3

WX!Environmental Change Network, ECN"$YÌÉ 34 ÔnÙ$Z#[V]-%&4`$/O%&\NO-,Í]^9:3( _^$<`ÆËÌaò-%&à×ØnÙÐ$-À0ÞËÌaZ-ÆnÙ6$pÜÝbcde-fg3üáCAIT nÙ;htij1<=.kÍ7J K1<kBÔnÙ$Ót$2000S2005 "$¥]-1<=.kl<=~$Ú7J K1<=k$umno3lpqÞnÙ$¯rst.¥]u;%&à-~v mw-?$GHËÌëìwx$yðzè-nÙÍ%&à{{|3

ì}ûM$~CZJ''(Â!Principal Component Analysis, PCA"$Y Ìu\-HI%&à~n+!Global Climate Change Trend Index, GCCTI"$ @ÆÔçèA$s GCCTI -®:$OÓÍHI%&à-{|3ïð ZG \nÙ$ö÷Æ]%&à~Í.ú^ø{ 3^ -$ û >ì ß$~CÁÂ0AÑÆ]-.ú^ø$å¯/t]$euÞ3G?Åu$t] uµ¸âí¡¢;$0½ôuµ¸â CO 2<=]$)G°ót]Å.HI %&à-^ø$LÆ]{3yz{$klt].ú%&à-^ø$) ìÍ3 <<$âí7'ukl7Â$ ¡¢ GCCTI -`+£¤Íéê##$/ O\nÙ-YÌ7Â88J''(!PCA"Òâ¥7'ux'(¦§$¨©` t]-GCCTI`}~$S]Èvª3â«7'$ZGCCTI$'(t] .úHI%&à^ø{3i¬$?¦3

&"'()*

~CÝYÌHI%&`a~n+!GCCTI"$/ö÷µ¸Æ].ú%&`a-^ø3kl½6u 1971S2007 "$klú*®jHI 92 Þ]c$°Z-kl¯ ;uSPSS!Statistical Product and Service Solutions"19.0 °3/m±²¡¢áÆx `+-³e´Çéê##$/Okl7Â3

!_{!( “Review of UK Climate Change Indicators,” Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, http://www.} ecn.ac.uk/iccuk/.

!_{!) "#$%&'()!IEA, International Energy Agency"*+,-2008 ./0 CO}₂12(3-4567 879:;<*CO₂12(3=293 >? -@A-A$*CO₂123=66 >?-B45CO₂123 *CD=22.2%-E/0FGH@IJK$-123=56 >? -CD=19.1%HFLJMNO-12 3= 16>?-CD=5.5%HFPJQR-123= 14>?-CD=4.8%HFSJTU-123=

12 >? -CD=4.1%V International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008!Paris: OECD/IEA, 2008".

(4)

!"#$%&'()*+

NOHI%&à-Å$®'uBá]^ÍuUQ3µ¶$;]Û Q-z$-·¸¹kÇEIº-·-»¼½!Ç¾ÿTÇE¿ÇÀÁÇ%'-4`$ÐhNOEI9:$-%&`}3*@$?@-z$]ÛQú%&` a-NO$Â(ÃÄ3üáÝ 1975 "/ä$E9:Õl)-cúÅÆo3+ yz{$%&à-Ç}ÍuÅÈ$ÜÝÕÖÍÉÊ-{[3, -z$EIQ-9:hÖË-·¸¹!ÌÍÎÏÐ¸¹"¯k$0½ô @? Ð¸¹$ Ñ Ë5-¯ kt¹ÒÍ-+$ÅME9: l) -Å Æ o3Ú ? $ % t 9 : % ; ) ì i Ó . 88 Ñ Ë ? Ð ¸ ¹ $ ° Ó Á Â Ô Õ = Ò Í -+$/-·¸¹¯kqrÖ×Ý%Ut$Ø9:.3-- IPCC -x¦§+ )$%t9:%;2:-12$Ù7'!90%"Ð?ÚÅûT3.yz{$ §ÛuT78$$9:%;2:phÜr?$HI©}fgôm~ 3/ ÝuÞìCß$~CàáoâãT$?%&àÇ}-JÅ$ijá 9:%;<=Ç¯#TÇäEZÇåÍ¡¢+ùT3/m±²¡¢{3 !!""#$%&' 9 : % ; J w ì « áCO 2Ç æ ç ! CH4, Methane"Ç 0 } è é ! N2O, Nitrous oxide"$/Oêë!ã®ìÇí4î-%;"3G«ãJw%;-}ÎÅ$Å M®/Ý%tïÜð"5+ñ"$FGmò$-ú%&ó,ô?@-NO8 8HI©}30 #õ$CO 2-??$ö÷ødùÇúûÇüý-+ù$/O°Z}þÿ ê!!"Çþ#Ç4$^%"-¦§3MÍ$°Z%ê4ÿ&}þÿê$$Õ=

!_{!* Scott Shuford, Suzanne Rynne and Jan Mueller, Planning for a New Energy and Climate Future!Chicago:} American Planning Association Planners Press, 2010", p. 21.

!_{!+ W X Y Z [ \ * ] 6 - ^ _ IPCC P I ` a b c d - e ^ f g h Catrinus J. Jepma and Mohan} Munasinghe, Climate Change Policy: Facts, Issues, and Analyses!Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998"; Kevin E. Trenberth ed., Climate System Modeling!Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992"; J. David Neelin, Climate Change and Climate Modeling!Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011". !_{!, Susanne Becken and John E. Hay, Tourism and Climate Change: Risks and Opportunities!Bistol: Channel}

View Publications, 2007", p. 16.

!_{!- iAjkl-S. George Philander m-!"#$!nohppqrs-2001 ."-t 282~290Huvw} 6xyz{5YZ|-%&'()*+,-http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7/climate/climate_info/backgrounds/

change_faq/faq1_1/index.htmlV

!_{!. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, pp. 38~39, 96.} !_{!/ }!+V}

(5)

!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123 3 5 N 2O3Gû CH4-12$$Í'ù1Ç$^%()4*+,-ì{3i¬$êë$./ Z û012 4Ó yd ù@ 33Ú? $4 û]ÈÉÊÐëìçè êë -c {+Z$Å M$~CÁÂÓá5Fk$Muklßà{3 !(")*+, )§]c-dùÇÐýÍúû6($Ð7w8-¯#eu9:Ò;Ó?$/! " e u J w ¯ # - ] c $ m h < = k - CO 2Ç í 0 } < ! SO2"Ç / O é 0 } = !NOx"3üát]?HI!1i,ó4>!]$!:-+"ì¥'{í#]! 1 32Å M $ ~ C # $ B Þ n Ù 88 ¯ # ° Z k ! ECR" Í } þ ÿ ê % ¯ # ° Z k !FECR"$#AÑ¯#Tú%&à-eZ3 !-"./01 Ý ä E Z Q & t $ T ú % & ` a N O i ' ( - ã 7 8 $ ? ) * + ,3-*Q×-M*$h4`%Çä.4,=6/9hç$î0ì1=-23eZ !transpiration"mn$-NO4-ØËhn5$6kM*FG7830½$ Ý9:)&º;+-*-@3t$phÕ=k- CO 2$M*1=ú CO2-Ñá k33 /$~C#$Â-*°ZQ×!NFAR"$#AÑäEZ<yú%&à-NO3 !2"34 å9:-?$=øm3-é#>>ÍäE°Z$?9:%;<= 123MÍ$å¦ÌOÓ+6'æ$@h6ÖENO%&à34üáÍABEC cv$Ðýúû¯#7D4 CO 2<=kÐ¢_xo23$5ÅM$üý9:û(hx ûAB36~CÆ]åvü!POPR"Íüýåvü!UPR"$ô%5×Ø%&` !_{!1 ~ ; < U J ; + A Y * ' G - " # ! Organization for} Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD"+,9-~;<*Y12B= Y123*20%ViAj- *-./012034567#89:;8 2005!noh$n 45YZ[\A-2005 ."-t 480V

!_{!2 Velmurugan Thavasi and Seeram Ramakrishna, “Asia Energy Mixes from Socio-economic and} Environmental Perspectives,” Energy Policy, Vol. 37, No. 11!November 2009", pp. 4240~4250.

!_{!3 Virginia H. Dale, “The Relationship between Land-use Change and Climate Change,” Ecological} Applications, Vol. 7, No. 3!August 1997", pp. 753~754; M. R. Segal, R. Avissar, M. C. McCumber and R.

A. Pielke, “Evaluation of Vegetation Effects on the Generation and Modification of Mesoscale Circulation,” Journal of Atmospheric Science, Vol. 45, No. 16!August 1988", pp. 2268~2392.

!_{!4 r-u[ YZ[s*¡¢|-<=9:-F 34 £F 1 ¤!2010 . 1 ¥"-t 60¦63V} !_{!5 Shobhakar Dhakal, “Urban Energy Use and Carbon Emissions from Cities in China and Policy Implications,”}

Energy Policy, Vol. 37, No. 11!November 2009", p. 4210.

!_{!6 §¨©k-u45ªs«¬*®|->?@AB5CDEF!¯°"-F 2 £F 3 ¤!2007 . 9} ¥"-t 5~6V

(6)

a-nÙ{3

!5"6789

ö ÷ ¡ ¢ + ù Í % & ` a c { - n Ù $ J w ì « á Æ ] ] E , ó . F v ü !GDPR"Çdù,ó.Fvü!INDR"Ç0ùí0}1{<=kvü!CO2MIR"$

/ O o å . G v ü ! TRDR "3 - z $ Guiyang Zhuang Ç Andrew John and Rowena Pecchenino$/O Richard Howarth -x¦§_H$GDPR Í 9:%;< =$l)r&-_ø{|370½$dùôhó,k-IJ=Ç>>@3-é#$

-ú%&`aó,ÕÖ-NO38WX?$ÝÆ]dù}-2RKL$0ùúûB

MÇNO$/OPQ¯#-7Dh>12$-? CO

2<=k-RR<=$2R

%&`a-Ç}~39i¬$Garciela ChichilniskyÇYunfeng Yan and Laike Yangkl

+)$S+]ck-xTJóù$UGS+t]c,ó$MN%&`a-Ç} ~ÒÚS+t]c$ÅMVLÓW3:

1 ¡¢$12ÔGCCTI-éê##3G®'uBÞ7'á?µ¸+ù n+!World Development Indicators, WDI"$WDI uµ¸XS!World Bank"YY3;

í?9:+ZéêZ!Environmental Data Explorer, EDE"$EDE u[\]9:9[= !United Nations Environment Program, UNDP"YÌ3<<`BÞËÌÐuD)\]

-]ÈÉÊ$H~C£ò-éê$)ì-®:3Ót${û7']cº7 ' ½ 6 o ) ^ _ F - f g $ ~ C $ E ` Chinn and Frankel - 7 Â $ / Î a b Â !linear interpolation"$c/db3=

!_{!7 Guiyang Zhuang, “How will China Move towards Becoming a Low Carbon Economy?,” China & World} Economy, Vol. 16, No. 3! March 2008 ", pp. 93~105; Andrew John and Rowena A. Pecchenino, “International and Intergenerational Environmental Externalities,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 99, No. 3!September 1997", pp. 371~387; Richard B. Howarth, “An Overlapping Generations Model of Climate–Economy Interactions,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics , Vol. 100, No. 3!September 1998",

pp. 575~591. !_{!8 ±²³¦´®µ-u¶·¸$¹º»`A<¼½*»¾¡¢`¿ÀÁÂÃÄ|-CDGH-2008 .} F 20 ¤-t16~19HÅ°Æ¦ÇÈ-u¸$ÉÊË12*Ì¤ÍÎÏÐ¤ÑÎÒÓ|- (I<=AB 5CD!ÔÕ"-2006 .F 16 ¤-t 153~157V !_{!9 Ö×Ø¦ÙÚ-uYÉ1ÛÜÂ@ÝÞßà|-CDGH!oá"-2008 .F 6 ¤-t} 18~22V

!_{!: Garciela Chichilnisky, “North-South Trade and the Global Environment,” The American Economic Review,} Vol. 84, No. 4!September 1994", pp. 851~874; Yunfeng Yan and Laike Yang, “China’s Foreign Trade and

Climate Change: A Case Study of CO₂ Emissions,” Energy Policy, Vol. 38, No. 1!Janunary 2010", p. 350. !_{!; “World Development Indicators,” World Bank,}

http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.

!_{!< “Environmental Data Explorer,” United Nations Environment Programme, http://geodata.grid.unep.ch/.} !_{!= Menzie Chinn and Jeffrey Frankel, “Why the Euro Will Rivar the Dollar?,” International Finance, Vol.11,}

(7)

!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123 3 7 ! 1" #$%&'()*+,-.)/012 !"#$ %&'() *+,-./012 345678!GHG" CO 2R 9:;<78=>?@9:;<78A= BCD EPAECAITEWBEUNED CH 4R FG78=>?@FG78A=BCD EPAECAITEWBEUNED N₂OR :;HI78=>?@:;HI78A= BCD EPAECAITEWBEUNED JKLM!EA"

ECR JK/0=>?@JK/0=BCD Thavasi!2009"EWBEUNED FECR ;NO-=>?@JKPQ=BCD Thavasi!2009"EWBEUNED RST0!LU"

NFAR

UVWXY>?@UVWXYBCD Dale! 1997 "E Dickinson ! 1991 "E Segal et al.!1988"EWBEUNED Z[!POP"

POPR Z[>?@Z[CD \]^!2010"EWBEUNED UPR _`Z[>?@Z[CD Dhakal!2009"EWBEUNED abcd!ED"

GDPR efghAi>?@efghAiCD Zhuang! 2008 "E Howarth ! 1998 "E WBEUNED

INDR jkhi>?@jkAhiCD lmno!2008"Epqro!2006" EWBEUNED

TRDR sthi>?@stAiCD Chichilnisky!1994"EYan and Yang! 2010"EWBEUNED CO₂MIR uvk9:;<78=>?@uvk9: ;<78A=CD WB !"# 1.$%&'(!%") 2.*+ 12 ,-./0123456789:;<=>) 3.?@ A B C D E F G H I J & # K L M B C N O P K @ A B C N )

4.QRSTUVWXY&Z[VW\]^Z [\]F'(U_àFbc/0def g&hiEUjkUàl mKZ[VW\]^hi\]'(NUn&op) qrst#àuvwx) !

!"#$%

!"#$%&"'()*+,-./012345678+ 12 9:;0<=>? @5678AB:C!GCCTI"0DEFGHIJKL5678+MNOP0QRST UV&WXMN"'YZT[UOYYZT!PCA"\<]#^_`a\

(8)

!!""#$%&'

!"1b 1970 cdef0IJKL?@5678+ghMN\)*ijklMN mnopqrQRst(uSvwxy0z{| GCCTI aAB0<GHIJKL?@ 5678MNaOP\

!(")*&&'+

QR}~Vgh7C01bO:;!:C"\ 7C+I0SQR}+0U+\ 0Amartya Sen ¡=>+¢£¤¥:C!Human Development Index"\!¦0§

¨©ª«¬®¯0,.°±²+³§0PCA ´µ¶·¸¹+Q R S T 0 XMenzie Chinn and Hiro Ito ´ © ª PCA0 = > ) ! º » ¼ : C !KAOPEN"Bo Chen and Yuen Pau Woo½¾¿À¹PCA0=>ÁÂÃbÄÅ: C\" ÆÇÈÉ0PCA +ÊËX#$µÌ7ÍC+ÊÎ0V+7CÏÌ+ 0ÐV+7CÏÑ+0<ÒL:;+ÓÔ\PCA +H¬SÄ,<ÕÖ ]X 1 Q j i i j i PC α R = =

_∑

I0PCiÕÖ× i UOYYC0RjÕÖ× j :;+ÊØYC0Q :;aC0

j i α ÕÖ×iUOYI×j:;+OYYC\#ÙÚÛÜÝ0QRÞ}ß~¸¹à áâ!eigenvalues"Ì 1 a j i α ÜO:;+\$¦0PCA +Ùã³§,¨ äUOY+àáåæÌ 10çÈèéêTë7C+\KF0!" ìí Bo Chen and Yuen Pau Woo +ST0<¬îï:;+µð!Final Weight, FW"X

!_{!! Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom!New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1999".}

!_{!" Menzie Chinn and Hiro Ito, “A New Measure of Financial Openness,” Journal of Comparative Policy} Analysis: Research and Practice, Vol. 10, No. 3!September 2008", pp. 309~322; Bo Chen and Yuen Pau

Woo, “Measuring Economic Integratio n in the Asia-Pacific Region: A Principal Components Approach,” Asian Economic Papers, Vol. 9, No. 2!Summer 2010", pp. 121~143.

!_{!# Ian T. Jolliffe, Principal Component Analysis!New York: Springer Verlag, 2002".}

!_{!$ Henry F. Kaiser, “The Application of Electronic Computers to Factor Analysis,” Educational Psychology} Measurement, Vol. 20!1960", pp. 141~151.

(9)

!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123 3 ₉ 1 1 i i j j i i i i i FW wα w = = =

_∑

!

_∑

I0FWjÕÖ×j :;+µð!FW" j i α ×iUOYI× j:;+OY YCWiÕÖ×iUOY+0ñ i i W Q λ = I0λi×iUOY+àáâQ7CC\% $F0!"À¹ PCA <=>?@5678AB:C!GCCTI"\ò!óôõ ]X , 1 2 , 2 4 , 3 2 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 2 , i t i t i t i t i t i t i t i t i t i t i t i t i t GCCTI FW COR FW CH R FW NOR FW ECR FW FECR FW NFAR FW POPR FW

UPR FW GDPR FW INDR FW TRDR FW CO MIR = × + × + × + × + × + × + × + × + × + × + × + × !!!!! !!!!! I0i ÕÖJö÷0ø 92 Jöt ÕÖùú0 1971 c° 2007 c\FW ÕÖ PCA¡¬îû+µðI0Bo Chen and Yuen Pau Woo:û0FWc Jöæg¾\&KF0èéüV× i Jö× t c+ï9:;0ý<ïþ+µ ðÿÿ PCA ¡=> GCCTI +Y9:;0!"Ð7+~C0´,<# -$Jö%c+GCCTIYC\&'OGCCTI+129:;0Y÷X

1. CO2RXW()*+¼,-./W()*+¼0,+{ 2. CH4RX12+¼,-./12+¼0,+{ 3. N2ORX()34+¼,-./()34+¼0,+{ 4. ECRX¨5¸¹,-./¨5¸¹,+{ 5. FECRX)67*,-./¨589,+{ 6. NFARX:;<=>-./:;<=>+{ 7. POPRX¢!-./¢!{ 8. UPRX!"¢!-./¢!{ 9. GDPRXJ#$%0â-./J#$%0â{ 10. INDRX&'%â-./&'0%â{ 11. TRDRX()%â-./()0â{ 12. CO2MIRX*+'W()*+¼,-./&+'W()*+¼0,+{ \

!_{!% Bo Chen and Yuen Pau Woo, “Measuring Economic Integration in the Asia-Pacific Region: A Principal} Components Approach,” pp. 121~143.

(10)

Ý,¡&:;æ- 0& 100%0!:;+YC./0ÕÖ$J?@5678AB 0)ÄÅ½./\ 1Ý,0èé=>ïJ+ GCCTI YC0Æ2ïJú(3ùÁú+{Ï0EFY Z./ïJL|MNaOP\à÷0!"©ª4ST056 GCCTI +,7ÅX 8,:;+9:\å$%&"'(JÚ';+QRO§0èé<-ûµ¨ÒL ?@5678AB+ïY9:;W«¬®+=¹ÿÿPCA ¨²+:; 0ÆÈ¡&Y9:;0bO>1:C?Æ2ï9:;@AÅB0C D Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin!KMO"-¿AE/pBartlett @FB0<G Cronbach's α # HI/7ÅB4 GCCTI (?@JKLÅ+gh/YZ\MNQR¿!:~O Ìÿÿkl 1971P2007 c?@ 92 Jö0!B&Üg%QR0¦èéSTEF0 =>¨A%ÒLïJKL?@5678AB+1:;\<]ÆÇ_`ÙãYZ+ ³§\

+",-./0123456789:;<

!"À¹UOYYZT!PCA"0=>?@5678AB:C!GCCTI"\QR ÇUÝ0!"V¬î 12 9 GCCTI 8,:;+µðWzÆ2XYZ/B 0<56Ùã³§+,7Å\µ[0!"\]_`PCA+Ùã³§\

!"#$%&

Õ 2 ?@5678ABï9GH:;+µð\PCA Ùã³§^Ö0CO2+

¼,{ !CO2R"+YCµ/0 0.101W¨5¸¹,{ !ECR"()

67*{ !FECR"0æ 0.100×4&'%â{ !INDR"0 0.097×_ J#$%0â{ !GDPR"0 0.096×`(×aY÷0()%â{ !TRDR" [*+'CO2+¼,{ !CO2MIR"0b0.092\×c°×dW#^XN2O+¼{ ! N2OR"p CH4 + ¼ , { ! CH4R"p : ; < = > { ! NFAR "p ¢ ! { ! POPR "p [ ! " ¢ ! { ! UPR "0 Y ÷ 0.091 p 0.080 p 0.067 p 0.053 [ 0.034\ ÆÇÈÉ0CO2R +µðYCµ/0e(%&"'+QR³§gI\Ð ª0ªfQRæüg CO2>:;aÝ0ÈhijKk½l34°?@567

8+AB\ 0PCAÙã³§^Ö0ECRpFECR+(CO2Rgm0nÉa0¢

£ÃopG¸¹°+¨50,0½+O5678+UVÊK\g|ÈÉ0¢! qX(Yr(5678+hs0Ïtu\<]ÆÇBã!ÙãXY+Zv/\

(11)

"#./0123456789:;<=! ! 11 ! 2" #$%&'()*+,-./0123456 N=40,848 !"#$ P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 FW CO 2R .981 .068 -.044 -.073 -.145 -.020 -.017 .039 .032 -.005 -.046 -.006 .101 ECR .977 .073 -.046 -.114 -.132 .008 .058 .057 .022 -.017 .030 -.014 .100 FECR .961 .123 -.047 -.157 -.166 -.009 .044 .066 .005 -.016 .009 .018 .100 INDR .864 .418 -.187 .027 .076 .152 -.014 -.047 -.105 -.034 -.005 -.001 .097 GDPR .847 .449 -.216 .027 .076 .125 .031 -.050 .073 .057 .003 .002 .096 TRDR .780 .500 -.089 .149 .256 -.202 -.003 .071 -.007 -.002 .001 .000 .092 CO 2MIR .928 -.175 .018 .147 -.106 -.035 -.268 -.033 -.003 .011 .011 .001 .092 N 2OR .932 -.263 .061 .067 -.001 -.107 .098 -.175 .030 -.027 .000 .001 .091 CH 4R .863 -.458 .135 .031 -.050 -.041 .095 .014 -.095 .057 -.001 -.001 .080 NFAR .713 -.348 .326 -.442 .251 .041 -.059 .005 .014 -.003 -.001 .000 .067 POPR .624 -.648 .054 .390 .113 .120 .035 .078 .037 -.020 -.002 .002 .053 UPR .115 .591 .780 .154 -.060 .037 .015 -.003 .004 .000 .000 .000 .034 %&' 8.298 1.852 .835 .465 .236 .112 .102 .057 .029 .009 .003 .001 n.a.

"#$ N=%&'( P=)*+,( FW=-./0( n. a.123456789 CO₂R= CO₂:;<=>(ECR=?@A B<=>(FECR=CDE4=>( N

2OR=N2O :;<=>( INDR=FGHI=>( GDPR=JKLHMI=

>(CH₄R=CH₄:;<=>(TRDR=NOHI=>( NFAR=PQRST=>( POPR=UV=>( UPR=W XUV=>(CO₂MIR=YZG CO₂:;<=>9 34[@$&\]^_`9

'"()*+,-+

!"©ªwB0ã PCA Ùã³§+Zv/0CDXY@AÅB(?@5 678AB:C(?@JKLÅ+ghYZB\<]Y÷x,a\ !!""#$%&'(

PCA -¿AE/B³§ybÕ 3\zV0KMO -¿AE/,C{° 0.8180 Ì 0.5 +ë|â¾ù0Bartlett @FB+}S«¬, 96533.1200 1%+^~ ]0 Bartlett @FB+êõ\eÕÖX!"¡:-+ 12 98,:;0 &+PCA-¿AE/\0Cronbach’s α#HI/7Å0.6120Ì Ù,+7Å!0.6"\e^ÖX!"¡:-+ 12 98,:;0æ8,¾ 79ÿÿ?@5678+AB\

(12)

! 3" #$%&'()* PCA 789:;<= ()*+ ,-' KMO./01234 0.818 Bartlett 56,- 96533.120*** Cronbach's α789:2;< 0.612 "#$***a 1%bcdefbc9

34[@$Henry F. Kaiser, “An Index of Factorial Simplicity,” Psychometerika, Vol. 39, No. 1!March 1974", pp.

31~36; Maurice Stevenson Bartlett, “A Further Note on Tests of Significance in Factor Analysis,” British Journal of Psychology, Vol. 4, No. 1!March 1951", pp. 1~2; Lee J. Cronbach, “Coefficient Alpha and the Internal Structure of Tests,” Psychometrika, Vol. 16, No. 3!September 1951", pp. 297~334; Joseph F. Hair, William C. Black, Barry J. Babin and Rolph E. Anderson, Multivariate Data Analysis!Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1998".

PCA -¿AE/B0³§^ÖX!"¡:-+ 12 98,:;0:~A' O8,?@5678AB+>1:;\<]ÆÇYZ0GCCTI (?@JKL Å+gh/0ÆÈBãGCCTIÙ./I+Ù¹/\ !)"*+,-'( ã GCCTI (?@JKLÅ+gh/0=>?@ GCCTI\zV0!"< 1971c!1971=100"ò0¬î 1971 c& 2007 c+ï9:;+./â\W0! "Ý, 12 98,:;+./â0ý< PCA +µð0#.c+ GCCTI ./ â\ å$ 1 ,0þ 1971 cd0GCCTI ./â´ÇÝ+AB\GCCTI . /âç 100 Ý° 2000øù 17cç 200 Ý° 3000½¸¹°g¾+ùú !16 c"¦0ü6 c+ùú0´ç300°400\eÕÖXmc¯0GCCTI ./â%I\ÆÇ{Ï GCCTI ./â(?@JKLÅ+gh/0Ùã ³§^ÖXw}+ Pearson ghC/{ 0.880! 1%^~]0w} &g h+êõ0ÕÖGCCTI(?@5L7)&/Ågh\nÉa0GCCTI,¡? @JKLÅ+¢£:;0à÷ GCCTI ¤,¹¯B¥ïJ+56780)ÄÅ0e ?@JK5L¡Ð¨G\

(13)

"#./0123456789:;<=! ! 13

> 1" GCCTI ?#$@ABC+DE;!1971F2007 G"

34[@$&\]^gY9

."/0123456789:;

XYZv/B05¦ PCA+Ùã³§êÌ§¨[0!"<]#^_` PCA +Ùã³§\1971P1980c0IJ GCCTIYCøÝ 1.13 ©Yª01981P1990c z«¬ 1.83 ©Yª01991P2000 czÆÇ«¬ 1.97 ©Yª02001P2007 c« ¬µ0O®Å{° 4.42 ©Yª\0¬ 1971 c& 2007 c0IJ GCCTI ø«¬ 9.93©Yª0./Ý«¬µ+Jö\!¯ 2" > 2" HI#$%&'()*0J!1971F2007 G" 34[@$&\]^gY9 =5>?@< GCCTI !"#$%& !"#$%& GCCTI!%"

(14)

ÆÇ¯°02007c0GCCTIYCµ/+±_²#^X×³J0GCCTI 17.6%WIJ0GCCTI 17.2%×?´!0GCCTI 6.98%×4µ¶ ·0GCCTI6.75%×_¸Å0GCCTI6.0%\!¯ 3" > 3" 2007 G GCCTI KLMNLIO 34[@$&\]^gY9 0( 1971cg{02007c GCCTI YCÝµ+_Jö0Y÷X× IJ0GCCTI ø«¬ 9.93 ©YªW¹º0GCCTI ø«¬ 2.42 ©Yª ×?¸Å0GCCTI ø«¬ 2.36 ©Yª×4¸»0GCCTI ø«¬ 2.07 ©Y ª×_¼½0GCCTIø«¬ 1.93©Yª\nÉa0e_Ja56780)AB µ¾\ g|ÈÉ0GCCTI YC]¿µ+_Jö0Y÷X×³J0GCCTI ø] ¿6.75©Yª×Wµ¶·0GCCTIø]¿4.55©Yª×?ÀJ0GCCTI ø]¿ 2.39 ©Yª×4ÁÂÃ0GCCTI ø]¿ 2.21 ©Yª×_ÄJ0 GCCTI ø]¿ 1.58 ©Yª\nÉa0e_Ja56780)ÅÆÇ.`^ÈÉ\ !¯Õ 4" ! 4" GCCTI PQ?RS3T+MNLIO!1971F2007 G"

ABCD EFGHIJDKL MNGHIJDKL

1 OK!9.93%" PK!-6.75%" 2 QR!2.42%" STU!-4.55%" 3 V<!2.36%" WK!-2.39%" 4 VX!2.07%" YZ[!-2.21%" 5 \]!1.93%" ^K!-1.58%" " #$ 1.hiK'jk GCCTI ,'9

2.+12 GCCTI ,'lmnopqrstuvwCxy( -12 GCCTI ,'fznopqrstuv{|xy9 34[@$&\]^_`9 '( )( *+ ,-. /0 GCCTI!%"

(15)

"#./0123456789:;<=! ! 15

±ÆÇ¯°0GCCTI 0)µ+±4²JöæÊ»¤IJöÒa0ÈÉµ +±_² JöÎæË »¤Jö0e Ì Í± h?@5678+QR³§\ XGuiyang ZhuangpAndrew John and Rowen Pecchenino0<GRichard Howarthæ: û0»¤IJö¢!Op$oÎÏÐ/Ñp#0ÃqXÐ|ÒÌ0ÆÈ« ¬)5+8(+OÓÔ+340ÕI56780)\!F0»¤IJöÖ+ ÓÔ;0¶·×Ë»¤Jö0¡< CO 2+¼,/p¨58,Ì+%'0æÌ, ØÙ°»¤IJö0e½+O»¤IJö56780)+VÊKa\" à÷â.Ð+0#$ GCCTI ïY9:;+7)0èé,<ÆÇÚR0)( È É ± _ ² J ö + Ê K \ < I J 01992 c#* + ' CO 2 + ¼ , {

!CO2MIR" 22.6%02007 c 32.9%01992P2007 cø«¬ 10.3%\í, CO2MIR

+µð 0.0920Î CO 2MIR |IJ5678AB+34 0.948%!10.3% X 0.092"0-1992P2007cGCCTI«¬,!6.2%"+{ 15.3%0ñ CO 2MIR|I J5678AB+Û'Å15.3%0129:;Iµ/\ W CO 2 + ¼ , { ! CO2R"0 Û ' Å 15.2% × ? ) 6 7 * { !FECR"0Û'Å 13.4%×4&'%â{ !INDR"0Û'Å 13.0%×_ ¨ 5 8 9 { ! ECR "0 Û ' Å 10.7% ! " ¢ ! { ! UPR "p ( ) % â { !TRDR"pJ#$%0â{ !GDPR"pN2O +¼,{ !N2OR"0<G CH4+¼, { !CH4R"+Û'Å0Î- 3.7P9.3%aú\g|ÈÉ0ü&¢!{ !POPR" [:;<=>{ !NFAR"iÜÈÉ0Û'ÅY÷]¿ 1.3%( 0.5%\!¯Õ 5" 1 Ý , 0 ! " À ¹ PCA = > 0 , ) 8 , . / ï J 5 6 7 8 A B + G H : ; !GCCTI"0DÆ2ï9Zv/B056 GCCTI +,7Å\$F0!"ÆÇ¬î ./ 92 Jö GCCTI YC0DÆ2+^\Ùã³§^Ö0ªf 30 c¯0IJ GCCTI YC%I0./«¬µ+Jö0±ËÝ./×W0 ÞW³J\RßIJMàKLF¾áâBãKLMNaOPã<] ÆÇÚä\

!_{!! Guiyang Zhuang, “How will China Move towards Becoming a Low Carbon Economy?,” pp. 93~105; Andrew} John and Rowena A. Pecchenino, “International and Intergenerational Environmental Externalities,” pp. 371~387; Richard B. Howarth, “An Overlapping Generations Model of Climate–Economy Interactions,” pp. 575~591.

!_{!" W. J. Baumol and W. Oates, The Theory of Environment Policy!Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,} 1988"; Yunfeng Yan and Laike Yang, “China’s Foreign Trade and Climate Change: A Case Study of CO₂ Emissions,” pp. 350~356.

!_{!# ] 1992 }~JrstCnJrstuHL,9} n&\JGCCTI kwCn 1992 }k ¡¢}9

(16)

! 5" HI GCCTI ,-01UJ+'Q!1992F2007 G" ()*+ _`!Gabc" 1992d 2007d ef3!%" gh<!%" CO 2MIR 0.092 22.6 32.9 10.3 15.3 CO 2R 0.101 12.0 21.3 9.3 15.2 FECR 0.100 9.7 17.9 8.3 13.4 INDR 0.097 2.5 10.8 8.3 13.0 ECR 0.100 10.3 16.8 6.6 10.7 UPR 0.034 28.3 45.2 17.0 9.3 TRDR 0.092 2.0 7.9 5.9 8.8 GDPR 0.096 2.1 6.6 4.5 7.0 N 2OR 0.091 12.6 17.0 4.4 6.5 CH 4R 0.080 15.7 18.6 2.9 3.7 NFAR 0.067 8.7 8.2 -0.5 -0.5 POPR 0.053 21.4 19.9 -1.5 -1.3 GCCTI 1.000 11.0 17.2 6.2 100 "#$£¤¥¦§¨k$1992© 2007 }ª,«¬lm<n®¯ª,«¬-./0n°± GCCTI lm<9 34[@$&\]^_`9

=">?@A,-./01BC6DEFG

2001 !"#$%&'()*+,-./!200102005 !"#"12345)6 7"89:(;<=>)%?@A"BCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRLSTU VWXLOPYZ[\]^_`abc2006 !"#$%&def"gh;<=>)8 9ij"k*+,-./) 4l"mno*+p,@A/!200602010 !") 8 lc$ qrst#$%&uSvwxy;<=>)z{c |}~"#$GCCTI"200102007!)JK" " 30!!197102000 !")Yc3k`b #$%&h GCCTI j¡¢£)%?ij"3¤#$¥¦ GCCTI j§ !_{!$ ²³´¦µ¶·¸¹ºh 4 «$1.UV]»+¼½¾¿aÀ,ÁÂK(2.QRÃÄ½ÅÆ} 18.2% ( 3. WXÇ+ÈÉCÃÄ½ÅÆ 35% ( 4. WÊËÌÍ<{|no*ÎÏÐÑ:;M<= 2000 }ÒÓ 10%9²³Ô´¦µ¶·¸¹ºh 8 «$1.ÕÖJKLHMI?@×ØzÙ 20%ÚÛ( 2. ÕÖFGlmIBd<zÙ 30%( 3.ÜGÝÞBdßàáBâ'ÅÆ 0.5( 4.FGã¸äÑåáB ½ÅÆ 60%( 5.pJMUV¾¿a136,000æU(6.çèéß<éê1.2ëì(7.*ÎÏÐÑ:; M<ÒÓ 10% ( 8. QRÃÄ½íÆ 20% 9²îUïðJJïñòðóôõ³ö´}÷øù Î ¶ n ! " # $ % & ' ' ( ) * & + , - . / nhttp://www.sdpc.gov.cn/fzgggz/fzgh/ghwb/gjjh/

200709/P020070912638588995806.pdf ;² î U ï ð J J ï ñ ò ð ó ô õ ³ Ô ö ´ } ÷ ø ù Î¶n!"#$%&''()*&+,-./nhttp://ghs.ndrc.gov.cn/ghjd/115gyxj/001a.htm9

(17)

!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123 3 17 )r¨"©ª«¬#$gxy;<=>)%?J®c

!"#$%&'()*+,-.

# $ % & ¥ * + , - . / ¯ * + p , @ A / # X ° 8 9 i j " ± ² ³ ´ J ) GCCTI j°µtHI¯¶·¸b¹cpº3»"·¸¼E½¯HI%?¾"#$ %&K¿)À%ÁÂcÃÄt¥*+,-./#"#$%&Å:("·¸¼E½´o 18.2%)Æijc¥*+p,@A/#"#$%&d:("·¸¼E½),!Ç-J K½ÈS 1.8%cÉÊ*+µ,@A/!201102015 !""ËÌÍÎÏF³Ð"|#$% &ÑÒÓ"·¸¼E½),!Ç-JK½ÔÕÖ¥1.3%)×Øc ÙÚ"2),!@AÛ¾Ü89@"HIÝÞÈS½)%?ij"ßà@ °áâ)ãäck*+,-./#) 9 ‰"åo*+p,@A/) 8‰"oæ *+µ,@A/"dåç7.2‰c% kèÀJ®»é"Ý 1990 !êëì"#$ÅSíî¸ïðLmn·¸QRñc "Ý 2007 !3»"$òïð:o$óô9õö)÷øùJúûcÃÄt 2007 ! 9 ü " # $ $ ó ý þ ÿ ! " ¥ # $ % & ' ( Ü ) ! Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, APEC"*+,2+,H¶-7Ü)§"e. 2010 !#$·¸¼E½: o 20%c&/0:1p!!2009 !""2J¦Æ¿ijc2009 ! 9 ü"#$345

*+67#89:Ü*;2x9Ü)S£<"UV¢WXxbWX=>!Ü) vÂc+67;#xÜ! "ÿ!"(þ "'$;<=># Ü"$ $! Ü% &tç 2020!"#$·¸b¹dÈS4,000'()L·¸*¹ñÈS13+<6(,c'

#$-./î¸"J0´J*+,-./¯*+p,@A/X)Æ¿ijc 12 GCCTI 3ñ j#)¶·¸b¹4Ã!NFAR"56"k 2001 !) 8.4%å7o 2007 !)8.2%"380.2 `9ûÂcqrst:FG¶·¸b¹ß;"#$%&) g%?"£è<=è$®0c ¯>?UV\]4"#$%&hHIJK)FG@"5ABo 1980 ! *pCð/%?)èÀc(ÉÊD!»"#$bEHIFð}~"Ùp%?6GHI° >=cÃÄt*+µ,@A/JpK:"-AULóMNOPQRL*8UíS/ TUNOR"3¤PQRcqVst#$%&W³FGHIJK)Xøc2Ù" GCCTI#)HI4Ã!POPR"k 2001 !) 20.6%"8o 2007 !) 20.0%"38 0.6`9ûÂcY;Z"HIñ[\]°®)FGc !_!% ²îUïðJJïñòðóôõ³úö´}÷øùÎ¶n!"#$%&''()*&+,-./nhttp://www.sdpc.gov.cn/fzgh/ghwb/gjjh/P020110919592208575015.pdf9 !_{!& ûüýn²QRÃÄ½ 20%þÿ!"#$¶n#$01!%&"n2010 } 11 ' 18 (nõ 5} )9 !_{!' *+,n²60 }-.+/01L2Ç3456¶n#$01!%&"n2010 } 9 ' 26 (nõ 6 )9} !_{!( Barry Nauaghton, The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth!Cambridge: MIT Press, 2007", p. 167.}

(18)

|5^)"POPR¯NFAR)_`av"ûb0.053¯0.067"cGCCTI) 12 `ûl j)de*µ¯*f"rs¦l jh;<=>ãä)z{³¾g7" Y;Z">?·¸¼E½¯HIÝÞÈS½"hh#$ô9;<=>iðãä) J®¶j°kc

/"#$%&'01#)*+,-.

#$%&¥*+,-./¯*+p,@A/#X°89ij"|l°´J%?J ®)li°ftå7mn$oU4pÔRqrLå7Ts4pt GDP 4Ã"3¤ GDP JK½cq5Ôuvw¯;<=>ið}~4"#$%&¥u%&)Öxy JKc ÃÄt#$$ó<zY>{9:Üý|}~rs";<=ðp`\]}~"| 1op`<z}~c}~T"hë<#$ó»"1)1|Þ <z%&LqcÙ"¥gh;<=ð)U#"$$!Ü[gûë< #$ó)<zaY<zc)#$$1[óÛT"*s}~+û v)}~"Sn%Åk1§J%&)<zc/**#$gh;<=ð$ó 6/¯*#$gh;<=ð)%?¯/ÛT"#$gh;<= >) ,t3O%&<z÷øc+ Ù" ¡¢[£"GDP è$JK½-.Xpc¤ 200102005 !"#$GDPJK½¥¦9.6%"*+,-./)Æ¿p!7%"2.6 `9ûÂ§ 200602010!"GDPJK½¥¦10.5%"(*+p,-./)Æ¿p!7.5%"2.5 `9ûÂc¨Ùz{"#$)$oU4p4v!GDPR"k 2001 !) 4.7%"©o 2007!)6.6%"3§1.9`9ûÂc ¯Zª)"¥2),!@A#"#$%&Û¾Ü:("ô4s/«)i j"|è$J®ÛIÄÆ¿cÃÄt*+,-./:("Ts4pt GDP 4ÃÆ¿å o 51%c|è$)Ts4p"ßk 2001 !) 4.4 ¬H®"mÈo 2007 !) 11.1¬H®"JK 2 ¯Z°c¨Ùz{"Ts4p4Ã!INDR"k 2001 !) 7.1% §o 2007 !) 10.8%"3§ 3.7 `9ûÂc"xyR±²³´») µ¶"#$S·¸rÔ4scÃÄt2010 !"¹ºL°»R¼L½³L¯¾ð^ ;nsTs4p"!JK½û 24.5%L36.8%L21.3%¯ 33.7%"qS¿#$ ;<=>)iðãäc Àp`ÃÁ»ÝÔRqÂ4Ã!ECR"c*+p,@A/Æ¿o 2010 !"mn$o !_{!) 789n²rstCþpq:S;<=¶n#$01!%&"n2007 } 6 ' 5 (nõ 2 )9} !_{!* >!!n²J"#M`>!!$%&'¶n#$2n2009 } 3 ' 13 (nhttp://lianghui2009.people.} com.cn/BIG5/145766/146770/148941/9 !_{!+ ²J(rstCJ!)*¶n!"#$%&''()*&+,-./nhttp://www.ccchina.gov.cn/} WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File189.pdf( ² J ( r s t C 9 + , ^ - . / 0 ¶ n ! ' 2 n http://www.china.com.cn/policy/qhbh/node_7055577.htm9

(19)

!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123 3 19

U4pÔRqrÔå7 20%cÃÄè$p¶jÅDijXp7ÆX) Æ¿ij 1 `9ûÂc|"#$) ECR Hk 2001 !) 11.2%"ÈSo 2007 !) 16.8%"3ÈS 5.6`9ûÂc[%ãD%?ij"ECRHÇxiðÈÉÊ" #$%&)i)>JÔRÊË®½"ß¶ÔRqÂñcÌÍ¥"ÔRÊË® ½)-Î(7"ÔRqÂñ3 GDPcY;Z"#$%&hÔRqr"Xp` 1:GDP)ÖxJK"ÉÏGDPÇxÈS"ÐÔRqÂñÛ:g:c

2"1$%&'31#)*+,-.

¥*+,-./¯*+p,@A/#"#$%&l°X89ij"Ûl°´J ªJ®)li°6týÑ;9!CO2RLN2ORLCH4R"Lð¾ÒÓ4Ã!FECR"L

Ô Õ 4 p 4 Ã ! TRDR "L Ö î s ) µ × ð Ø Ù Í 4 Ã ! CO₂MIR"" 3 ¤ Ú Û ð ½ !UPR"c1Ü"CO₂MIR k 2001!) 21.5%©o 2007 !) 32.9%"nÈS 11.4 `9ûÂ"c12lGCCTI«¬ j#ÝZÞc É 2 UPRc Ã Ä ¥ * + p , @ A / # " # $ % & ¢ ¡ Ú Û ð ½ ) 8 9 i j !47%""±Æ¿ç 2015 !JpKmßo 51%c|É%?i)¶h;<=>"ß ÒÓàÙ"áâ¹ãä)oåæçc¨Ù%?âO"#$ UPR n©"k 2001 !) 37.2%o 2007 !) 45.2%"3ÈS 8 `9ûÂ"JKc_l j#)*µ nck$ó<z)èé»é"êw#$ÚæHIíëÈS"#$g:hìíX ÀLÔRL(3îLqÂ)åï"ðñÑÜnÈSÑ;9)ÙÍc *fCO 2R"200102007!3ÈS7.5`9ûÂ"JKc_l j#)*f n§*; FECR"200102007 !3ÈS 6.9 `9ûÂ"JKc_l j#)* ;n§*, TRDR"200102007 !3ÈS 3.7 `9ûÂ"JKc_l j#) *,n§çN 2OR¯CH4R)Ðû2001!)15.3%¯17.5%"§o2007!) 17.0%¯18.6%"3ÈS1.7`9ûÂ¯1.1`9ûÂc gVÞ"Ä0#$%&l°X89);<=>ghij"Ð¦}~g¢\]° ®FGcÞß"§òJKóí);<=> j"¾z{ GCCTI _°³)ô"Ã ÄtCO₂R)z{³c 12l GCCTI«¬ jZÞ§É2Å FECRcqÛ¢t #$%&õuo;<=>)vö"±:(89)gh%?"| GCCTI ÷ø¨ùú ©)ãäc

û1üò"#$%&Ï:(gxy;<=>)ª%?ij"¦l}~Å5 \]ÆK)>?§kbß;"Ä0#$%&l°:(Nýö j"Ðª}~Ç xið"ÃÄtCO₂MIRLCO₂R ¯ FECRc" ¡2xþo|p` j "¥l°%?Ný"ÝÝ<ÿ\]>?cqrstFG#$;<=>iðã ä"H!å"#:(¯$è%?ijc

ÙÚ" ¡Û<¨"%&JK)=eÜið;<=>)ãä"|#$%&% k%&JK)&"»ñ>?;<=>)'Ü2(cÃÄth%&JK)*ó=)

(20)

jPOPR ¯ NFAR"+³Ûhón§Z"ÕÖ%&ÖxyJK"# $%&,ç^Çxið;<=>cÃÄt#$%& GDP JK½X¥ 7%3 §"à-ÚÛð½cÞ#$%&Ûu.o";<=>h#$%&¯ô`$ ó/x))*cÙ"¥ 2011 !<f)*#$gh;<=ð)%?¯/ :¤"#$TsU4U) N 2O ÙÍìy 2005 !)×Ø§c*+µ,@ A/12:("°®FGÑ;9ÙÍ"Æ¿ç 2015 !"mn$oU4p) CO 2ÙÍñÇ-å 17%§¶ð¾ÔRtÆ0ÔRqÂ4ÃÈS½´ 3.1%cgVÞ"

#$%&h;<=>)FG³Ð12ST"kavó7) POPR ¯ NFAR":oa vó) ECRc¨¥"#$%&ij3¥_ª4) CO 2RcÙ" ¡53 Æ¿"#$;<=>)iðãä5Ôãh"|h5w#$%&)Xø%& ÖxJK¯å7;<=>µ¶)a6c!7r 6" ! 6 "#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$!2001!2005" !"#$%!2006!2010" &'() 2001*2007+ GCCTI ,-./ 01'2 34 01'2 "# !5#$%01'2 !2011!2015" 678'29:,01;< NFAR -0.2 $%&'()* 18.2% ! $%&'(+,-. 1.8% ! $%&'(+,-. 1.3% POPR -0.7 /0-.(19‰ ! /0-.(18‰ ! /0-.(17.2‰ 678'2=>6:,01;< ECR 5.7 n. a. 23GDP456789 20% × 23GDP4567 8916% INDR 3.7 :;<=>GDP?@ 51% × AB=>GDP?@CD EF4% × AB=>GDP?@ CDEF4% GDPR 2.0 +,-.7% × +,-.7.5% × +,-.7% >78'2?>6:,01;< CO₂MIR 11.4 n. a. × n. a. × n. a. UPR 8.0 n. a. × #+@ABC4% ! #+@ABC4% TRDR 3.7 DE:6,800FGH ! n. a. × n.a. CO₂R 7.5 n. a. × n. a. × CO₂GHIIGCPJK 8917% FECR 6.9 n. a. × n. a. × JKL45>LM4 56M?@)3.1% N₂OR 1.7 n. a. × n. a. × n. a. CH₄R 1.1 n. a. × n. a. × n. a.

! "#$%&'()*+,-$ !&'(.+,- n.a.(/012345)*6789:;<=:>?@ ABCD#EFGHIJ@

(21)

!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123 3 21

H";$ I

!"#$%&'())*+!PCA",-./012345678!GCCTI",9 :;<=1971>?2007>,@ABCD92EFGHIJ,!"KLMNEOPQR STU,VWXGCCTIYZ[\H$I]^_,`abcGCCTI,defghiFY 1234jk56,lmno(pH

!"qr,2007 >,GCCTI )8stYuvwxyDz{F|iF|}!|~ \,vF(/01234jkYs'FGH GCCTI Y(\ ,iF;123456jksDYFGH,M 30 >,{FY 1234jk56YH,uF ¡¢OP£¤¥FY¦ §1¨©ª«,`a¬¦§1¨,®¯¥F°B1234Y±²³no( p,´D¨µp°¶·¸Y/0S¹ºH»¼,GCCTI ½¾ZV¿À,ÁeEF GY1234jkÂ6,ÃZVÄÅ¥F°B1234noY(pH!"YÆ eE9:ÇÈH

ViFDÉ,= 2000 >ÊËvPÌÍÎÏ,ÐÑÒÓÔÕÖq×´°1234Y ØnoHÙ¹º,iF GCCTI KÚ´IÛÜÝÞ,ßàájkHPeter Navarro â7,´DiFiãnäåæ³ç+èéêëìí,îïðñàòóôôH!»

¼,iFõö÷øYùíúûüýHÙ!"qr,iFnäBþ1234Y´°n oÿ!(pYH"m#$z$%iFnä¢&'ÿ!Yno(,)iF $ GCCTI *+7(_Yr,,ÕÖjkH,å-./S7(,*¹º¡¶ 50H!"YÆ1E9:ÇÈH

defß¼,(iF GCCTI jkY2´DzÛÜÝÞ³Y7(úû ê,å3Eß45567³ú89:;,ß<3E7(Yì=!B1234Y> ! í " ¡ ¬ ! H , ì = t Y 7 ( ¡ $ " Ö j k Ò i , É $ z ' ¨ µ 1 ! !CO2R|N2OR|CH4R"|k#$%&É!FECR",Vl'(Y1)k*+,&É

!CO2MIR"H»¼,GCCTI ½¾ZV¿ÀeF-!Y1234jk56,Ãùde

fg:(1234jkY´.H!"YÆ/E9:ÇÈH 01ß¼,iFnäY2n3(4D56(H7$½89Ie(Yu &_,iFnä:¶;<1234HÉ$z=á>?9,eï:ZV@012 34jk56,Aeï:)B!CDEBiFFGYHIHÝÞ67(,'= JöHÙiFnä4KL?,1234jkBm56³-!FGM/YNO, ´I,ÊË1vPQÍRUàN./S7(H`aST,$ÐÑÒÓYt\=U,i FY1234jk56Zù,0H

K_{!! Peter Navarro, Waking Dragon: the Emerging Chinese Economy and Its Impact on the World!Prince} Frederick, MD: Recorded Books, 2007", pp. 36~40.

(22)

!"9:VÞ1z3W,XþY%VÞ,`aZ+[-\]?^>!123 4Y=7(,É$z_`*ka!HFCs"|/`*ka!PFCs"lb`kc!SF6"

deHmf,!"Y9:Y%¾g]? 2007 >,ôhsij>Y/0³¥FY%, Ùsij>¥F"klàNmÞ1234YnoHÚ9:ZV$nBsij> Y1234Y%-./0³¥FY GCCTI 78,VÔ®¯/0³¥FY123456 l´°no(pH

* * *

(23)

!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123 3 23

Analysis and Evaluation of China’s

Policy toward Global Climate Change

Chia Chi Chu

Ph.D. Candidate

Graduate Institute of Development Studies National Chengchi University

Guo Chen Wang

Ph.D.

Chen Yuan Tung

Professor

Abstract

This study constructs a global climate change trend index based on principal component analysis. It also evaluates the effectiveness of countries’ policies toward global climate change, particularly China in details. This study covers 92 countries from 1971 to 2007.

There are two key findings in this study. First, China is the most deteriorated while the United States has the most improved record in contributing to global climate change during the period of the study. Second, in the Tenth Five-Year Plan and Eleventh Five-Year Plan, China proposed the establishment of legislation and promoted policy objectives for climate change, but did not restrict influential factors of climate change, such as reduction of CO

2 emission. Therefore, these policies were not effective in improving the overall climate change trend in China.

Keywords: principal component analysis, global climate change trend index, Tenth Five-Year Plan, Eleventh Five-Year Plan

(24)

! " # $

!"#$%&'((%)*'+,-./0123456789!"#$%&''() * & + , - . / 9http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/fzgggz/fzgh/ghwb/gjjh/200709/P02007091 2638588995806.pdf: !"#$%&'((%)*'+,-./0;123456789!"#$%&''( )*&+,-./9http://ghs.ndrc.gov.cn/ghjd/115gyxj/001a.htm: !"#$%&'((%)*'+,-./0<123456789!"#$%&''( ) * & + , - . / 9http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/fzgh/ghwb/gjjh/P02011091959220857 5015.pdf: !"(=>?@AB(CDE89!"#$%&''()*&+,-./9http://www. ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File189.pdf: !"(=>?@ABFGHIJKLMN89!'09http://www.china.com.cn/policy/ qhbh/node_7055577.htm: ! O P Q R S T U V ? @ 89 1 2 3 ! 4 5 6 7 9http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7/climate/ climate_info/backgrounds/change_faq/faq1_1/index.html: WXYZ[\9!](^_`abFcdefIgdhfij89!'#89:;<= !kl"920063/16d9m153~157: noG9!?@ABpqV&rstFuv89#$>?!wx"92007 3 6 y 5 z9 /2{: |"}95@ABCDECFG;HI)*JKL* 2005!~w(~qV ?@A"920053":

|"}9S. George Philander9MN)O!~wB92001 3": Z9!](v"F ¡D¢89<= PQ920083/20d9m16~19: £¤¥9!qV¦B§¨F©89RST9:;<=U?!ªX"9/ 2 «/ 3 d !2007 3 9 y"9m1~9: ¬ C 9! ( ® ¯ ° ± ¬ C ² " ³ ´ µ , 89 # $ 0 9http://lianghui2009.people.¶ com.cn/BIG5/145766/146770/148941/: ·¸9!$¹AK>?@ABF89#8JK9/ 34 «/1 d!2010 3 1 y"9 m59~69: ºC#Z»¼9!¬½?¾^a¿À¡Á+,)*ÂÃ89<=PQ!wx"92008 3 /6d9m18~22: ÄÅÆ9!60 3¥ÇÈÉÊËÌÍXÎÏÐ89#$>?!wx"92010 3 9 y 26 z9/6{: ÑÒÓ9!ÔÕÖ×Ø20%pÙWÚÛÜÝFÞ89#$>?!wx"92010 3 11 y 18 z9/5{:

(25)

"#./0123456789:;<=! ! 25

“Climate Analysis Indicators Tool,” World Resources Institute, http://cait2.wri.org/wri. “Climate Change,” European Environment Agency, http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate. “Climate Change Indicators in the United States 2012,” United States Environmental

Protection Agency, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/pdfs/climateindicators-full-2012.pdf. “Environmental Data Explorer,” United Nations Environment Programme, http://geodata.

grid.unep.ch/.

“Key Indicators in Global Climate Change,” National Aeronautics and Space Administration, http://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/.

“Review of UK Climate Change Indicators,” Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, http://www.ecn.ac.uk/iccuk/.

“World Development Indicators,” World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.

Bartlett, Maurice Stevenson, “A Further Note on Tests of Significance in Factor Analysis,” British Journal of Psychology, Vol. 4, No. 1!March 1951", pp. 1~2.

Baumol, W. J. and W. Oates, The Theory of Environment Policy!Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988".

Becken, Susanne and John E. Hay, Tourism and Climate Change: Risks and Opportunities !Bistol: Channel View Publications, 2007".

Chen, Bo and Yuen Pau Woo, “Measuring Economic Integration in the Asia-Pacific Region: A Principal Components Approach,” Asian Economic Papers, Vol. 9, No. 2!Summer 2010", pp. 121~143.

Chichilnisky, Garciela, “North-South Trade and the Global Environment,” The American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 4!September 1994", pp. 851~874.

Chinn, Menzie and Jeffrey Frankel, “Why the Euro Will Rivar the DollarÞ,” International Finance, Vol. 11, No. 1!Spring 2008", pp. 49~73.

Chinn, Menzie and Hiro Ito, “A New Measure of Financial Openness,” Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice, Vol. 10, No. 3! September 2008", pp. 309~322.

Cronbach, Lee J., “Coefficient Alpha and the Internal Structure of Tests,” Psychometrika, Vol. 16, No. 3!September 1951", pp. 297~334.

Dale, Virginia H., “The Relationship between Land-use Change and Climate Change,” Ecological Applications, Vol. 7, No. 3!August 1997", pp. 753~754.

Dhakal, Shobhakar, “Urban Energy Use and Carbon Emissions from Cities in China and Policy Implications,” Energy Policy, Vol. 37, No. 11! November 2009 ", pp. 4208~4219.

Hair, Joseph F., William C. Black, Barry J. Babin and Rolph E. Anderson, Multivariate Data Analysis!Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1998".

(26)

Howarth, Richard B., “An Overlapping Generations Model of Climate–Economy Interactions,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 100, No. 3!September 1998", pp. 575~591.

International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008!Paris: OECD/IEA, 2008". Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report

!Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007".

Jepma, Catrinus J. and Mohan Munasinghe, Climate Change Policy: Facts, Issues, and Analyses!Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998".

John, Andrew and Rowena A. Pecchenino, “International and Intergenerational Environmental Externalities,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 99, No. 3 !September 1997", pp. 371~387.

Jolliffe, Ian T., Principal Component Analysis!New York: Springer Verlag, 2002".

Kaiser, Henry F., “The Application of Electronic Computers to Factor Analysis,” Educational Psychology Measurement, Vol. 20!1960", pp. 141~151.

Kaiser, Henry F., “An Index of Factorial Simplicity,” Psychometerika, Vol. 39, No. 1 !March 1974", pp. 31~36.

Navarro, Peter, Waking Dragon: the Emerging Chinese Economy and Its Impact on the World !Prince Frederick, MD: Recorded Books, 2007".

Nauaghton, Barry, The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth!Cambridge: MIT Press, 2007".

Neelin, J. David, Climate Change and Climate Modeling!Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011".

Shuford, Scott, Suzanne Rynne and Jan Mueller, Planning for a New Energy and Climate Future!Chicago: American Planning Association Planners Press, 2010".

Segal, M. R., R. Avissar, M. C. McCumber and R. A. Pielke, “Evaluation of Vegetation Effects on the Generation and Modification of Mesoscale Circulation,” Journal of Atmospheric Science, Vol. 45, No. 16!August 1988", pp. 2268~2392.

Sen, Amartya, Development as Freedom!New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1999".

Stern, Nicolas, The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review!Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006".

Thavasi, Velmurugan and Seeram Ramakrishna, “Asia Energy Mixes from Socio-economic and Environmental Perspectives,” Energy Policy, Vol. 37, No. 11!Novermber 2009", pp. 4240~4250.

Trenberth, Kevin E. ed., Climate System Modeling!Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992".

Working Group I, “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_

(27)

"#./0123456789:;<=! ! 27

ALL_FINAL.pdf.

Yan, Yunfeng and Laike Yang, “China’s Foreign Trade and Climate Change: A Case Study of CO

2 Emissions,” Energy Policy, Vol. 38, No. 1!Janunary 2010", pp. 350~356.

Zhuang, Guiyang, “How will China Move towards Becoming a Low Carbon Economy?,” China & World Economy, Vol. 16, No. 3!March 2008", pp. 93~105.

(28)