台灣房地產景氣動向預測準確度之研究
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(8) I. I. F-Tests, Dependent Variable ~IHH~~ Variable. F-Statistic. Signif. ~:1dtH~. 2.5135. 0.0620469. fOJ]BH~f~. 1.5348. 0.2093738. ~M~. .. ~ ~l:* I3Jl {,-*. F-Tests, Dependent Variable IOJlF.1if~f~ Variable. F-Statistic. Signif. %'i)H~f~. 2.1396. 0.0991603. f0JlF.1im~. 3.2845. 0.0234511. ,DEi. . fi rzg 5f: 1m {,-*. ~~.g~~m.w~~m.~m~m.,~~.~.~~~m.~E~m.$~ =~.~.e.m~*(~~~.~.·~Mm~.·m.~~.m.),®~qm~ !~U§1~mjfu.·~H§~tl:1.. 0. flHf;f*f*!j~·. (1997). liff:re.~mjfuil:!~HI~i,mf~.e~]i1t. ••~ftm~,®~~m.~m~*~m.§1W.e.m~g,~~m.~~~m~. mffi~m.,.~m.~~~~m.-~~~~~W~ffi~~~·~*~m.~tt •• ~tt,~~~~m.~m.A~.~~qm.~~tt,~~~m~.~~~m.~~~. ~um.**m~. ••• ~ •• m~,m~.~~R~m~~m ••*z.~m~••. a.~,~m~~m.~m~m.~~~m~~·~m~~*~~.~Rft7~~m.. ••~~m~Wmft'~Rm~W ••fi **m~~ •• MfimW~,~~m~~M~~~m.m.=*Z.~m~iI •• ~~ ~qm.-*,~m~~m.m.m~iI. ~*~. 0. 2. ~1tJf1 f#-mmu Z~liift. •. ~.~1~1~m-*~2002 ~liift,~m~~~~~~m~fi ~tf1.~ff'f~ft. .. (1)~7}.tt~~~. •• ·~~~R~~m~m~~m.m.=~z.~. , ~.tJ;gtf:l~~-*~~~1JI;1tigf (under estimate) ,. Wtfl~~rQ1r&lli!mt!l~B~:fJ?,~. -* '. •• m.~. (Percentage Errors' PE). *m~~ PE ~Dllft~-). (]~ PE. ~*mmAA~,~m~~m.~fi. 0. ~*~~9Gm. iltt[l[ffJ$~.tJ.~~ 19841f:.tJffijB'~ PE ~. ~~[s51nf~rl3'B<J?Jii:i1.t. Z1&~n'lftf1.B~~fifift~mJ:ft. ' 0. mit!U~~ ~.tt~~3HfI~/J\. 1984 ~Z~. , ~*~f§.~tf1.mmlj=*.
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(17) It M m!ili ~ jl. *!.ilJ (oJ ffliP'IJ ~ trfi1 N z. tiJf J',: 6.m:ilZ~ , ~ft~~. . 7J3if!>c '. ij~~'ll~. tltfJf!j!' 10 M 3. , 1990' r )jjjili~Jit~t~t~'Hii[!iiH'Hff J. '. /i~t(Z.t!kif;;f.:!j!!j!fIi' 61. , 2000 ' r *,~Hl~~~W mjili~jj!~~~z.liJf3j; J. '. ~.-t;$~. M : 333-411 •. /iO£fJI!j!~~ tiliJf!Pt1tffJ. ; AX&ij. ~ : 330-343 •. , 2000 ' r ffl'JH]l:~!iini*~:W:lM J}HtB~jj!*iJ!~~z.fiJf§l'C J. 343-368. (59). '. '17~3M:. 0. , "iflfXi1i ' 2001 ,r §~=:f!IW~lit~WlfXWfil~Jfiz.fiJfJ',: J' ~1i~I'Wf¥cp~)(1tW~~<gf:l~fiM. W"•• )(.'CP~~.MI.*~· lO.Case, K. and Shiller, R. 1988. The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets. New : England Economic Review. November/December: 29-46. 11.Falk, B. 1991. Formally Testing the Present Value Model of Farmland Prices. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 73: \-10. 12.G1enn R. Mueller. 1995. Understanding Real Estate's Physical and Financial Market Cycles. Real Estate Finance. 12(3): 47-52. 13.Nico· Rottke, Martin Wemeoke, Arthur L Schwartz Jr. 2003. Real estate cycles in Germany-causes, ( empirical analysis and recommendations for the management decision process. Journal of Real Estate Literature. 11 (3): 327 -345. 14.Stephen A Pyhrr, Stephen E Roulac,· Waldo L Born. 1999. Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications for Investors and Portfolio Managers in the Global Economy. The Journal of Real Estate Research. 18(1): 7-68. IS.Steven R. Grenadier. 1995. The Persistence of Real Estate Cycles. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics. 10(2): 95-119. 16.Tegene, A. and Kuchler, F. 1993. A Regression Test of the Present Value Model of US Farmland Prices. Journal of Agricultural Economics. 44(1): 135-143. I7.Terry Grissom; James R Delisle. 1999. A Multiple Index Analysis of Real Estate Cycles and Structural Change. The Journal of Real Estate Research. 18(1): 97 -129. 18.Peijie Wang. 2003. A Frequency Domain Analysis of Common Cycles in Property and Related Sectors. The Journal of Real Estate Research. 25(3): 325-346. 19.Walter Enders. RATS Handbook for Econometric Time Series. Iowa State University..
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