中國「一帶一路」倡議對「大湄公河次區域」發展的機會與挑戰：「地緣政治」與「地緣經濟」研究途徑 - 政大學術集成

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(1)國立政治大學亞太研究英語碩士學位學程 International Master’s Program in Asia-Pacific Studies College of Social Sciences National Chengchi University. 碩士論文 Master’s Thesis. 政治大中國「一帶一路」倡議對「大湄公河次區域」發展立的機會與挑戰：. ‧ 國. 學. 「地緣政治」與「地緣經濟」研究途徑. ‧. A Study on the potential effects of the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative in the Development of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS): Geopolitical and geo-economic perspectives. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. e. i. i n U. v. ngch 研究生：郭佳勳 Student: Kuo Chia-Hsun 指導教授：王定士博士 Advisor: Dr. Wang Ding-Shu. 中華民國一 Ο 六年六月 June 2017.

(2) 謝. 誌 Acknowledgement. 這是一個英文學程，但身為本國生的我，身邊家人朋友幾乎都是用中文交談，語文運用要以能溝通為首要重點，所以想一想，我就以中文來撰寫這篇謝誌吧！首先，我是在職進修的，工作與寫作業及趕去學校上課的時間難免有些緊湊，感謝辦公室長官及同仁們諸多的協助及包容，讓我能夠完成課業的相關要求。再來，要謝謝我的指導教授王定士老師，他採取很開明的態度，充分尊重學生，在關鍵之處給予方向指引，每次討論過程中，不只能從老師身. 政治大讓我深深感動在心。也要謝謝參與論文審查的口試委員劉必榮老師、王信立. 上得到專業知識，更聽取到許多人生經驗，王老師總是用心為學生著想，實老師，感謝你們撥冗參加且給了我許多寶貴的意見。另外，一起參與課. ‧ 國. 學. 程的同學們及分享心情的助教們，特別是我的同門佳燕，謝謝大家一路的相互陪伴，也祝福你們。. ‧. 最後，卻是特別重要的，就是要謝謝我的家人，家庭是最重要的支持. Nat. sit. y. 力量，感謝我的爸媽，給了我很多的支持與鼓勵；感謝我的岳父岳母，平. er. io. 常照顧我的飲食，我的女兒出生後，悉心照顧她，讓我能專心於工作及課業；謝謝小姨子冠伶，協助我的論文計畫書口試；謝謝我的外祖父母，在 a. n. v i l n Ch 天上聽我祈求很多事情，給予我勇氣及幫助。當然，背後那雙推手一定要 engchi U 特別強調，感謝我的太太千滋，把家庭照料的很好，又必須擔任我講述課堂故事及練習英文的最佳聽眾，辛苦了。在這裡也提到我的女兒，謝謝妳來當我的女兒，帶給我不少歡樂及當爸爸的壓力，也讓我認知到要趕快完成學業。. 能夠畢業真的是一件令人高興的事，政大 IMAS 是我夢想的學程，它讓我更加開拓國際視野，培養了練英語的習慣。畢業是另一個學習階段的開始，或許要再回到學校唸書不容易了，但我會保有學習的熱誠，將英語融入我的職場及生活中，樂在學習、提升自我。郭佳勳 Ron. i.

(3) Abstract Today, the world is facing the challenges of politics, economic structure, climate change and so on. The countries endeavored to make integration in aspects of economy, trade and security while the competition among countries has never been in a rest. In 2013, China has proposed OBOR initiative in an attempt to strengthen ties with the Eurasian continent and to maintain its leading status in economic development. The Indochina Peninsula, due to the adjacency to China and important strategic value, was regarded as the first choice of going out by China. At the same time, this region has also been valued by other powers, such as the United States, Japan and Russia.. 政治大. In 1992, the Asian Development Bank initiated the Greater Mekong. 立. Subregion Cooperation Program to assist the economic and substantial. ‧ 國. 學. development in the Indochina Peninsula. Under this mechanism, China has established a wealth of cooperation experience with the Indochina Peninsula. ‧. countries and also offered lots of funds and technology. With the continuous enhancement in economy and the implementation of OBOR, China kept on. y. Nat. sit. increasing investment. The intentions of hoping to dominate this region and. a. er. io. exclude the strength of the United States and Japan are very clear.. n. i v region but may cause China’s initiative mayl create opportunities for the. n U challenges as well. The potential e effects n g cofhthei OBOR in the development of. Ch. the Greater Mekong Subregion are as follows: 1. The interests and opportunities of the five countries in the Indochina Peninsula: more money and construction being brought, to make the regional trade mechanism feasible, to gain investment or technical cooperation from other powers and to activate the development of emerging industries. 2. The challenge and threat of the five countries in the Indochina Peninsula: over-reliance on China leading to concession to China, being easy to offend certain side of the powers, to diminish the liberty of political decision-making and the impact on the environment. ii.

(4) 3. The interests and opportunities of China: to find out alternative transport route of energy, to let the enterprises go out and to maintain economic growth, to strengthen the development of the western region, to relieve the conflict in the South China Sea and to internationalize the RMB. 4. The challenge and threat of China: political and financial risks, local race or environmental conflict and challenges from foreign powers.. Keywords: One Belt, One Road; Greater Mekong Subregion; Geopolitics; Geo-economics. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. iii. i n U. v.

(5) 中文摘要當今全球正面臨著政治、經濟、環境等多項議題的挑戰，國家為求發展及自身地位，致力於經貿或安全等面向之區域整合，惟國家間競爭行為亦從未稍歇。中國於2013年提出一帶一路倡議，企圖加強與歐亞大陸的連結，維持自身經濟發展領先地位，其中，中南半島因鄰接中國大陸，且具有重要戰略價值，是中國對外發展的首選，同時，該地區亦受到美、日、俄等強國重視。前於1992年，亞洲開發銀行倡議大湄公河次區域合作計畫案，協助中南半島經貿發展與實質建設，中國在此機制下，與中南半島國家建立了豐. 政治大. 富的合作經驗，亦提供了該區大量的資金與技術。隨著中國經濟實力不斷提升以及一帶一路的提出，中國持續加碼投資，欲掌握該區發展主導權並. 立. 排除美日等勢力之意圖不言可喻。. ‧ 國. 學. 惟經濟建設利多不僅為大湄公河次區域提供機會，亦將帶來些許挑戰，本研究整理一帶一路倡議對大湄公河次區域發展的機會與挑戰如下：. ‧. 1.中南半島五國面臨的利益與機會：帶來更多的資金與建設、區域貿. Nat. sit er. io. 展契機. y. 易機制變得具體可行、帶來其他強國的投資或技術合作、啟動新興產業發. n. al 2.中南半島五國面臨的挑戰與威脅：過度依賴中國易受中方控制、介 iv C. n. hen chi U 在強國間易不慎得罪某方、限縮政治決策上的主體性、開發對環保的影響 g. 3.中國面臨的利益與機會：獲取能源替代路徑、讓企業走出去以維持經濟成長表現、加強西部地區開發、平衡南海爭議、提升人民幣國際化 4.中國面臨的挑戰與威脅：政治及資金方面的風險、當地種族或環保衝突、外國勢力挑戰關鍵詞：一帶一路、大湄公河次區域、地緣政治、地緣經濟. iv.

(6) Table of Content Acknowledgement…………………………………………………….........ⅰ Abstract………………………………………………………………..........ⅱ 中文摘要……………………………………………………………............ⅳ Table of Content……………………………………………………….........ⅴ List of Tables………………..........................................................................ⅶ List of Figures………………………………………………………….........ⅶ Chapter 1. Introduction………………………………………….....……1-1. 1.1 Research Motives and Research Purposes…………………….........1-1. 政治大. 1.2 Assumptions and Research framework…………………….….…....1-4. 立. 1.3 Literature Review and Research Methods……………………..……1-7 The Strategic Meaning of One Belt One Road……......……2-1. ‧ 國. 學. Chapter 2. 2.1 The content of OBOR…..…………………………….….….....……2-1. ‧. 2.2 The Geographical Importance of Southeast Asian Countries of. y. Economic Development of Southeast Asian Countries in GMS. io. sit. Chapter 3. Nat. Greater Mekong Subregion…….....……………….....………….…2-14. a. er. and their Expectation and Cautiousness to China.…….……3-1. n. 3.1 Economic development iv l and construction of OBOR……….…….…3-1. n U engchi 3.2 The discussion of China’s Ambition………………..……….…..…3-16. Ch. 3.3 The expectations and cautiousness of the Southeast Asian countries in GMS……………………….………………….…....…3-23 Chapter 4. The Intervention by Powers and the Impact to the Region………………………………………………………......4-1. 4.1 The intervention in the Mekong Region by the United States…...…4-1 4.2 The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) ………...........................…….4-6 4.3 The intervention by Japan……………………………….…........…4-10 4.4 The intervention by Russia……………………………......…….…4-16 Chapter 5. Conclusions…………………………………...………...……5-1 v.

(7) 5.1 The interests and opportunities of the five countries in the Indochina Peninsula………………………………………………….…...……5-1 5.2 The challenge and threat of the five countries in the Indochina Peninsula……………………………………….…….……......……5-3 5.3 The interests and opportunities of China………………….……......5-5 5.4 The challenge and threat of China……………...……….….………5-6 Reference…………………………………………......…………………..…r-1. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. vi. i n U. v.

(8) List of Tables Table 2.1 Basic information of Southeast Asian countries…………..….…2-18 Table 3.1 Trade volume among China and Mekong Subregion countries….3-6 Table 3.2 2010-2015 China’s Direct Investment Balance in the GMS….…3-11. List of Figures. 治政大 Figure 2.1 Map of One belt one road………………………...………...……2-3 立 Figure 2.2 Income level of participant countries……………………….……2-4 ‧ 國. 學. Figure 2.3 Map of six international economic cooperation corridors….……2-9 Figure 3.1 The planned route of Sino-Thai Railway………………………...3-7. ‧. Figure 3.2 Southeast Asian section of Trans-Asian Railway………………..3-9. Nat. sit. y. Figure 3.3 Trend of China’s Direct Investment Balance in the GMS………3-12. er. io. Figure 3.4 China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor………….…..…3-13 Figure 3.5 The expected China-Pakistan Railway………………….………3-21 a. n. iv l C n Figure 3.6 Kyaukpyu Port and transport of oil……………….………3-31 h e n groute i U h c Figure 4.1 Illustration of international FTA………………………...………4-10. vii.

(9) Chapter 1. Introduction. 1.1 Research Motives and Research Purposes 1.1.1 Research Motives Chinese President Xi Jinping first proposed “Silk Road economic belt” initiative which is focused on cooperation on facilitating the connection of roads, flow of trade and circulation of currency while visiting Kazakhstan in September, 2013. In his another visit to Indonesia in the next month, Xi expected to strengthen cooperation with ASEAN countries and build “Maritime. 政治大 “One Belt, One Road (OBOR)”. 立. Silk Road of the 21st century”. These two above ideas were jointly named. ‧ 國. 學. This revealed China‟s ambition to open up and initiative of economic diplomacy. It also reflected new diplomatic relation of great power proposed by. ‧. Xi, trying to make China out of conservative diplomacy, back to the international arena and revive its ancient Han and Tang prosperity.. y. Nat. sit. When China proposed “One Belt, One Road” initiative along with. er. io. strategies of the Chinese enterprises “going out”, Southeast Asia undoubtedly. n. a of Chinese grand strategy. Ifi vChina fails to integrate became the primary region l. n. with neighboring Southeast C Asian h e countries, i it Uwill be more impossible to. ngch. promote grand strategy to the rest of Asia. Indochina Peninsula of Southeast Asia is adjacent to China, with frequent interactions. In 1992, the Greater Mekong Subregion Economic Cooperation Program (GMS Program) was established in order to promote mutual trade, investment, development and other issues through close cooperation among the Mekong River countries. With the progress of “One Belt, One Road”, the Mekong subregion was considered to be the most important region, which is not only one branch of “One Belt” but also the area linking to maritime “One Road”. China has been investing plenty of infrastructures so far. However, what is the importance of Indochina Peninsula (or the Mekong 1-1.

(10) subregion), which has rich historical, cultural and colonial background, but isn‟t tagged with economic and political power? For China, is there only “proximity” attractive? Besides, the United States and Japan have been involved in the region, showing that the issues here might not be simple. Economic and trade affairs and even strategic level are considered by global powers. China wants to strengthen the link with Indochina Peninsula, pushing the Trans-Asian Railway, of which the “Sino-Thai Railway” is the middle line. In October of 2013, China and Thailand signed the agreement called “rice for high-speed rail” which was once halted owing to the coup but later resumed by. 政治大 have reached a consensus 立for railroad cooperation and the two countries have the military government. About the rail system, in 2012 Japan and Thailand. ‧ 國. 學. signed a memorandum about Bangkok-Chiang Mai high-speed rail project, confirming Thailand will use the Japanese Shinkansen technology. Even though. ‧. Bangkok-Chiang Mai line doesn‟t overlap the middle line, Japanese low interest rate of funds, technology and route‟s alternative made Thailand dare to. sit. y. Nat. bargain with China and the progress of Sino-Thai Railway run with many turns.. er. io. Both China and Japan face the pressure of exporting excessive productive. n. energy in order to boostaweek domestic economy. Involvement in Indochina v. i l C n Peninsula as earlier as possible h could not only enhance e n g c h i U the influence but enjoy. the benefit of this emerging market. Most important, each side hopes to contain. each other and doesn‟t want to see the other to obtain complete control of the railway and even to be crowded out by the rival. Not only high-speed rail but construction of ports and industrial parks revealed such competition. Thus, the Mekong subregion must possess so critical strategic and geographical value that China and other powers would strive here. This value might comprise economic, political, energy, military benefit, and even have reference to the issue on South China Sea. OBOR seems to bring greater opportunities for the GMS countries both in economic development and substantial construction. However, China‟s rise has 1-2.

(11) been a noticeable phenomenon which brought unease to other countries and drew counter actions. For example, the US proposed “Rebalancing toward Asia-Pacific Region” which was against China and seemed to be “containment” in the geopolitical research approach. Is OBOR actually a welcomed “Chinese Dream” or a “Chinese Threat”? This research will explore the value and economic situation in Mekong subregion by geopolitical and geo-economic perspectives. The content of OBOR, China‟s ambition, and attitudes of other participants, such as opinions of five countries in Indochina Peninsula and responses from global powers, will be also discussed, hoping to grasp potential effects of OBOR under more. 政治大 reference when any country 立has been or will be engaged in dealing with OBOR. comprehensive analysis. At last, the findings of this study could be regarded as. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. issues with mainland China.. sit. y. Nat. 1.1.2 Research Purposes. er. io. This paper attempts to answer the following questions: China‟s “One Belt,. n. a One Road” initiative announced the noble concept i vof common prosperity, l. n. C h to Mekong subregion. promising to bring huge profit However, China‟s i U e ngch. initiative may create opportunities for the region but may cause unease as well. What are the opportunities and challenges China‟s initiative brought to the region? The scope of this study is defined as follows: (1) Space: The five Southeast Asian countries in the Mekong River Basin, including Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar, as well as China‟s southwest adjacent areas (2) Time: Using 2013 when OBOR initiative was proposed as the time axis, based on the existing achievements before 2013, to discuss the continuation 1-3.

(12) or increase of investment and construction, and the benefit to the GMS subregion. As to the historical background and the competition of the powers, this study takes a wider range of time to clearly explain the facts and emphasize the logic of story‟s description.. 1.2 Assumptions and Research framework 1.2.1 Assumptions This study argues that China‟s OBOR initiative is a sign of economic. 政治大 “China‟s rise”, while other powers 立. co-prosperity, but it is to show its big country strategy. The countries of the region are wary of. are taking the. corresponding countermeasures in view of China‟s potential threat. The. ‧ 國. 學. foregoing situation has resulted in an unstable factor for the development of the region.. ‧. This assumption can also be resolved to the following logical-related. io. sit. y. Nat. sub-propositions:. er. (1) OBOR is on one hand to announce the concept of sharing economic. n. prosperity, but on theaother i v thinking of a big l hand, to show the strategic. n U country‟s ambition in the region.e n g c h i. Ch. (2) China‟s investment may bring huge economic benefits to the region; however, because the countries in the region are wary of “China‟s rise”, they will not fully believe or rely on China. (3) In the context of “China‟s rise” and “China‟s threat”, other powerful countries will not blindly agree or support China‟s OBOR and will take respondent measures (4) Some politically sensitive issues, such as territorial or maritime sovereignty may be shelved for a while, but remain an unstable factor for the region. 1-4.

(13) 1.2.2 Research framework Based on the above logic-related sub-propositions, this study designed the. framework as follows.. OBOR big Strategy. 政治大. 學. ‧ 國. 立 Greater Mekong Subregion. Geopolitics. ‧. view. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat Economic development& China’s ambition. Geoeconomics. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. Competition among powers. Countries in GMS rely on China but feel worried. The sequence of each chapter was organized in the following chart. 1-5.

(14) Research Motives and Purposes. Assumptions and Research framework. Ch.1 Research Methods. Literature Review(Theory and analytic angles ). 立. Secondary data analysis 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. Nat. sit. Ch.2. n. er. io. al. y. The strategic meaning of OBOR. Ch. i. e. i n U. v. n gAsian c hCountries in Economic Development of Southeast GMS and their Expectation and Cautiousness to China. Ch.3. The intervention by powers and the impact to the region. Ch.4. Conclusions. Ch.5. 1-6.

(15) 1.3 Literature Review and Research Methods 1.3.1 Literature Review (1) China’s rise &China threat In the late 1990s, the issue of “China‟s threat” was widely discussed and watched with the rise of China. The United States and East Asian neighboring countries believed that the rise of China‟s overall strength may be more or less threatening regional stability. The China threat appeared in a variety of forms, mainly classified into ideology, economic and military dimensions.1 Anti-Chinese group pointed out. 政治大. that the rise of nationalism and anti-American propaganda can be an evidence. 立. of ideological threats being brought by the communist country.. ‧ 國. 學. In economic part, China jumped as the economic giants in the world stage in the 1990s, which has made some members of anti-Chinese group feel. ‧. concerned. That is, will China use its economic strength to bully the. y. Nat. neighboring countries and challenge the United States status? The theory of. sit. China‟s threat points out that the rise of China‟s economic strength will give it. a such as Taiwan issue. concessions on certain issues,. er. io. more opportunity to express powerfully and to force other powers to make. n. iv l C n h e n gbrought However, the most serious threat c h i byU China to the United States. should be a military strategic level. China hopes to replace the dominant position of the US in Asia-Pacific and is actively engaged in military modernization in order to achieve its goals. As to the military spending, the official report assessed the budget of People's Liberation Army has risen more than 140% from 1988 to 1995.2 According to the defense budget announced by the 12th National People‟s Congress, the defense budget of 2013 continued to grow by about 10.7%. The 1. Emma V. Broomfield (2003). Perceptions of Danger: The China threat theory. Journal of Contemporary China, 12(35), 265-284. 2 Eikenberry, Karl W.(Spring,1995). Does China Threaten Asia-Pacific Regional Stability. Parameters, 25(1).82-103. 1-7.

(16) defense budget has shown a stable increase with economic growth. But its hidden budget is still higher than the published one. The CCP must provide a reasonable explanation, or it would be regarded as concrete evidence of China threat by the neighboring countries. In response to the issue of “China‟s rise” raised by Western countries in the 1990s, China formally put forward the proposition of “peaceful rise” for the development of China at the Boao Forum in Asia in 2003.3 Rise refers to the rapid development of a country‟s economy, focused on internal changes. China‟s sustained growth is not only conducive to domestic development, but also contributes to regional peace and prosperity. Peaceful rise is China‟s. 政治大. highest and core interests.. 立. ‧ 國. 學. (2) New regionalism. ‧. The term was first proposed by Norman Palmer,4 who pointed out that the. y. Nat. new regionalism was a new development of regional cooperation. The fact that. io. sit. new regionalism was affected by economic globalization was indisputable. The. er. globalization of the market and industrial division caused the impact on. n. a l cooperation will be thei vmost favorable choice. national economies. Regional n. C. h e nthat Economist Jagdish Bhagwati argues h i U is the result of a state‟s g cregionalism rational autonomy in response to globalization.5 The rise of the East Asian region in the early 1990s was the recognition of the era of globalization, and it was difficult to resist the economic turmoil by its own, and it was necessary to maintain the stability of the economy with the overall strength of the region. The regional integration factors in the Asia-Pacific region are complex, showing three major types, namely, the Asia-Pacificism led by the US, the. 3. Zheng B. (2005). China‟s „Peaceful Rise‟ to Great Power Status. Foreign Affairs, 84(5), 18-25. Norman D Palmer (1991). The New Regionalism in Asia and the Pacific . Massachusetts: Lexington Books, pp.1-8. 5 Jagdish N. Bhagwati (1991). The World Trading System at Risk. Princeton: Princeton University Press, p.58. 4. 1-8.

(17) ASEANism led by ASEAN countries, and the East Asianism led by China. These three types of regionalism revealed interactive and conflicting relationship. China‟s East Asianism which was in line with the geographical identity has become the main trend in the new wave of regionalism. Before the 1990s in East Asia, Japan was the leader of the regional economic development under the “geese model”. From the late 1990s to the beginning of the 21st century, the rapid development of China was increasingly becoming the new source of economic development in East Asia and will become the support for the East Asia. Over the past two decades, China has been involved in most of the important regional economic cooperation. 政治大 the show of a great power. 立 In the participation of the regional and economic. mechanism, changing from low-profile to active, from shy to self-confident, in. ‧ 國. 學. trade-related cooperation, China shows outstanding achievements, like GMS cooperation, which is an important example of cooperation among regional. ‧. members.. The fact that China wants to play an important role in the region is bound. y. Nat. sit. to result in competition against the United States. Most Asian countries are still. er. io. very dependent on the United States, so China tries to avoid conflict with the. n. United States as much aas possible. Under the atmosphere of two powers‟ v. i l C n competition, China believes thathit will be able toU e n g c h i play a major influence in the East Asian cooperation mechanism and obtain the dominance of regional affairs as long as it has strong strength and persists in the peaceful means.6. (3) Geopolitics Geopolitics is a theory of international relations. It was mainly discussed by the German geographers about a study of the interaction between international politics and geography. Geopolitical connotation is changing with the international situation. In the modern time, geopolitics is a theory of. 6. 吳鵬翼(2013)，東亞區域主義發展與中國的角色。龍華科技大學學報，No.33，pp91-113。 1-9.

(18) developing appropriate foreign policies and strategies for the maintenance of national security, on the basis of doing geographical analysis of various international political forces and their interrelationships. It uses geo-analytical methods to research and predict the strategic situation in the world or regional and political behavior of the countries.7 Rudolf Kjellen, a political scholar in Sweden, is known as the father of modern geopolitics, and he created the term “geopolitik” in the book “The State as a Living Organism” published in 1916. He believes that the country's life is dependent on the land. The country is an organism, the territory is its body and the political center is its heart. Rivers, roads and railways are its blood vessels.. 政治大 geopolitics is a science that 立 studies the political dependence between political. The places to produce the raw materials and food are its limbs. He argues that. ‧ 國. Geopolitics is the foundation of national development.8. 學. events and land. It aims to promote political action and guide political life.. ‧. The traditional geopolitical theory is regarded as a doctrine of advocating expansion, confrontation and contention. From the historical development. y. Nat. sit. process, the traditional geopolitical theory played an important role in the. er. io. World War I and II, and its important doctrines include Sea power theory of. n. Manhan , Alfred Thayer,aLand power theory of Mackinder, v Sir Halford, John,. i l C n Air power theory of Douht, Giulio, Rimland theory of NJSpykman. h eand ngchi U. Modern geopolitical theory was developed after the World War II. With the change of international power and the further development of military technology, the influence of geographical factors on international and national security changed again. Modern geopolitics began to look at the world‟s big board with a new and pluralistic perspective, and through the geographical analysis of various international forces, to seek favorable strategic situation in the international competition.9. 7 8 9. 尹者江(2004)，冷戰前後台灣地緣政治。國立政治大學外交研究所碩士論文。沈默(1979)：現代地緣政治–理論與實施。台北：三民書局，頁 18。樓耀亮(2002)，地緣政治與中國國防戰略。天津：天津人民出版社，頁 8-9。 1-10.

(19) The cooperation of economic and political issues in Southeast Asia is progressing rapidly. The huge economic integration system comparable to the EU and the NAFTA gradually formed. In recent decades, China has played the role of promoter in economic and trade development of Southeast Asia due to its economic strength and geographical proximity. However, the Southeast Asian countries still have doubts on China‟s threat and thus generally maintain friendly relations with the United States, especially in the military and security aspects, hope to introduce the US forces to counter the rise of China.10 Obviously, China is the most important geopolitical sector in Asia-Pacific region. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, China‟s strategic position is. 政治大 theory” can be very good 立applications. China is the geographical center of. more prominent. Mackinder's “Geographical Pivot” and Spykman‟s “Rimland 11. ‧ 國. 學. East Asia and the Asia-Pacific region. The South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan and Southeast Asia are marginal areas. The issues of. ‧. economics, politics, territory, sovereignty and religion can lead to regional conflicts and international disputes, affecting China‟s own sovereignty, security. sit. y. Nat. and strategic status. Therefore, in a sense, the future of China‟s geopolitics and. io. er. geo-economy is still very tough. The correct choice China can take is to strengthen economic cooperation with the surrounding areas and reduce the. n. a. v. i the other powers, as l C to reduce the doubtsnfrom provocation to regional security. h. e nthem. gchi well as the possible containment from. U. (4) Geo-economics Geo-economics is a new theory of international relations that emerged after the end of the cold war. Geo-economics is also a science that studies the interrelationships between economic development and geo-variables of a 10. 蔡東杰、洪銘德(2009)，美中兩國在東南亞地區的軟權力構築與競爭。遠景基金會季刊，10(1)， pp45-88。 11 段進軍、陸大道(1999)，論大國東亞地緣經濟戰略與東亞地區經濟合作。經濟地理，19(2)， pp22-26。 1-11.

(20) country. It is a science based on national interests, economic phenomena and geography.12 In 1990, Edward N. Luttwak, a senior adviser to the US Defense and an expert of Washington Strategic and International Research Center, first proposed the theory of geo-economics.13 According to him, with the end of the cold war, the competition among countries has been from the past political and military stage to the economic stage. The model of competition among countries was transformed to raising the market share by means of national regulation and participation in the world economy. This new model of competition is geo-economics.. 政治大. In the concept of geo-economics, the foundation of the new national. 立. security gradually shifted from political and military to economic development.. ‧ 國. 學. The possibility of military threats, armed invasion, territorial occupation decreased, while economic development, capital security, capital management,. ‧. international investment, technical status, resource supply, information, human resources, etc. which influenced the national economic security have been very. io. sit. y. Nat. prominent.14. er. Senior diplomat pointed out that when talking about international relations. a. n. iv in the 21st century, everyone knows that geo-economics has replaced l. n C h 15 U geopolitics as the dominant force.e nUnder g c hthei influence of globalization, the geo-economics has jumped out of the scope of national policy, and become the guidelines for individuals, companies, or industries. ASEAN has been regarded as the regional trade cooperation mechanism by Southeast Asian countries for decades and gradually become the important and potential economy on world economic stage. ASEAN not only promotes regional economic and trade integration, but actively interacts with the 12. 宋國棟(2006)，地緣經濟學芻議。平原大學學報，23(5)，pp1 - 4。 Luttwak, E. N. (1990). From geopolitics to geo-economics: logic of conflict, grammar of commerce. The National Interest, No.20, 17-23. 14 Ibid. 12 15 陸以正(2006,Jan.)，地緣經濟主宰 21 世紀國際關係，國政評論，財團法人國家政策研究基金會，參照：http://old.npf.org.tw/PUBLICATION/NS/095/NS-C-095-014.htm 13. 1-12.

(21) surrounding economic powers. China is one of the most important trading partners of the ASEAN. With the institutionalized exchange, investment and construction, and the running of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, China has stabilized its influence on the Southeast Asian region. It is the practice of geo-economic theory. However, due to the deepening mutual dependence, whether China will use economic strength to achieve other political attempts, let the argument of China‟s threat arise again.. 1.3.2 Research Methods (1) Literature Review. 立. 政治大. This study explores the opportunities and challenges brought by OBOR in. ‧ 國. 學. the development of the GMS. Therefore, it is necessary to start from the big strategic thinking of China‟s OBOR then to the Greater Mekong Subregion.. ‧. Using the relevant literature review could grasp the important theory of this topic, and the significance of the relevant theory for our study area. There, the. Nat. sit. y. process of literature can not only explore the important theory, but also. io. er. establish the analytic angles of our study. Then we can analyze the regional opportunities and challenges and clearly understand the development context of. n. a. l C international trend.n the region, in the way of meeting. hengchi U. iv. (2) Secondary data analysis Secondary information is collected or recorded by predecessors‟ research. It is usually a historical piece of information that has been collected, and the secondary information is usually collected faster and can help reduce the cost of collecting or investigating. In this study, we need to collect information on the economic development, government and enterprise investment, policy direction and implementation in GMS, the attitude of each member country, the competition of major powers in the region. The use of secondary data, 1-13.

(22) including books, papers, media news, reviews, government publications, etc., can grasp and analyze the relevant information more effectively and efficiently.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. 1-14. i n U. v.

(23) Chapter 2. The Strategic Meaning of One Belt One Road. In September and October 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed respectively "Silk Road Economic Belt" and "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" strategic concept when visiting Central Asia and Indonesia. Premier Li Keqiang listed the strategy in the whole-year main work in the Government Work Report of 2014. One belt one road has an extremely important strategic significance to comprehensively open the level of economy. For China, OBOR attempts to stabilize the domestic economy, strengthen ties with neighboring countries, ensure energy supply, and contribute to the. 政治大 capital and techniques. It立 is also expected to ease tensions brought by territorial development of neighboring countries through infrastructure and assistance of. ‧ 國. 學. disputes. To sum up, OBOR is indeed a macro strategy with multi-thinking. This chapter will first describe the content of OBOR, and then focus on the. al. n. 2.1.1 Background. sit. io. 2.1 The content of OBOR. er. Nat. y. ‧. GMS, to discuss geographical importance of OBOR in this area.. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. At the 18th People’s Congress in 2012, China put forward the idea of “improving the level of open economy”, calling for co-ordination of bilateral, multilateral, regional and sub-regional and open cooperation to promote interconnection with neighboring countries. In 2013, “The decision of the central committee of the Communist Party on deepening some major issues about reform” put forward the theme of “accelerating the construction of infrastructure and interconnection with neighboring countries, promoting Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road and forming a comprehensively new open pattern.” In 2014, Central Economic Work Conference put forward “taking strategic planning” and implementing OBOR strategy. When the Boao. 2-1.

(24) Forum was held in 2015, China announced a concrete program for OBOR, showing ambitions of China to promote construction. In fact, OBOR is the sequel of the brilliant ancient Silk Road. 1 The ancient Silk Road was stepped by the people along the route, which carried spirit of peaceful cooperation, tolerance, mutual benefit and win-win. Under the challenge of the new era, the Asian and European countries are facing the pressure of changing. OBOR filled a new connotation to the ancient Silk Road, planned a better blueprint for China’s deep reform, and added new vitality to Asian-European regional cooperation. OBOR is regarded as a new opportunity by countries along the route. But China’s threat, strategic thinking behind. 政治大 have made this so-called立 “peaceful cooperation, mutual benefit and win-win”. economic development, huge financial needs, and competition among powers,. ‧. ‧ 國. 2.1.2 Range. 學. dull.. (1) Silk Road Economic Belt. y. Nat. sit. Basically, the land-based Silk Road economic belt starts from Xian, and. er. io. goes west to Central Asia, the Middle East, Russia and Europe. This economic. n. belt contains countries from a the ancient Silk Road to newv areas, like South Asia. i l C n and Southeast Asia. Silk Road h economic belt hasUthree main routes, one is to engchi Europe through Central Asia and Russia, the other is to the Mediterranean countries through the Middle East, and the other is to the Indian Ocean region through Southeast Asia and South Asia. (2) 21st Century Maritime Silk Road The Maritime Silk Road is based on the ocean and complements Silk Road Economic Belt in order to enhance the overall benefits through more complete link. This route is to expand the coastal port facilities, starting from Chinese ports, passing by the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, 1. 袁新濤(2014)，絲綢之路經濟帶建設和 21 世紀海上絲綢之路建設的國家戰略分析。東南亞縱橫，No.8，pp3-8。 2-2.

(25) the Mediterranean, and arriving in the prosperous European region. The other route is bound for the Pacific Ocean countries through the South China Sea.. 政治大. 立. ‧. Map of One belt one road. Nat. y. ‧ 國. 學. Figure 2.1. n. er. io. a. 2.1.3 Expected economicl benefits. Ch. sit. Source: Global Times 2. engchi. i n U. v. OBOR could promote trade and political relations among China, Asia and European countries and will also allow China to enhance domestic economic growth by exporting capital, technology and productivity. OBOR could also balance China’s internal regional development. Along OBOR, there are more than 50 countries and 4.4-billion population are expected to be affected (63% of the world). Most of these countries are developing countries, which lack infrastructure. Some states have water shortage, lack of electricity and roads, and unsmooth commercial transactions. 2. Global Times (2015, March 31). China maps out 'One Belt, One Road' with action plan. Retrieved September 30, 2016, from: http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/914743.shtml 2-3.

(26) The average income of countries along the route falls mostly in the range of middle-low income. The high income countries (according to the World Bank, per capita income yearly: above 12,476 US dollars) 3 accounted for 6.9% of total population, about 300 million people; middle-low income countries (per capita income: 1,026 to 4,035 dollars) kept about 2.4 billion people; low income countries (per capita income below 1,025 dollars) accounted for 6.7% of the total population, about 290 million people. OBOR injects a lot of investment and construction, which are expected to create economic fruits of 21 trillion US dollars. The huge value should benefit participant countries.. 政治大. Figure 2.2 Income level of participant countries. 立. ‧ 國 n. al. Ch. 2.4 billion. e55.2% ngchi U. sit. population. er. io. 300 million 6.9%. y. Nat. population. Low income per capita income below 1,025 dollars. ‧. Middle-low income per capita income 1,026 to 4,035 dollars. 學. High income per capita income above 12,476 US dollars. v ni. population. 290 million 6.7%. Source: edited from chart in Global Times, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/914743.shtml. 2.1.4 The operation of OBOR According to Action Program of OBOR published by Chinese authorities in March 2015, the overall development will focus on strengthening the links 3. The World Bank (2016, July1). New country classifications by income level. Retrieved October 3, from: http://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/new-country-classifications-2016 2-4.

(27) of five areas, including policy, infrastructure, trade, monetary finance and interpersonal communication. (1)Policy coordination Strengthening policy communication is an important guarantee for OBOR. OBOR initiative provides a good opportunity for China to promote intergovernmental cooperation, carry out macro policy exchanges, make communication mechanisms, share ideas and strengthen mutual trust. The experience of OBOR allows countries to pay more attention to policy coordination, and makes China more enthusiastic about regional planning and trade cooperation.. 立. (2) Infrastructure. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. Interconnection of infrastructure is priority of OBOR. The strengthening. ‧. of infrastructure links by participant countries could form an infrastructure. y. Nat. network, which not only integrate subregions in Asia and Europe but take into. sit. account the security and sovereignty of countries. The main transit network,. er. io. such as railways, highways, ports, airports, energy pipelines, communications. n. a to gradually achieve the convenience networks, will be improved of transport. iv l C hengchi Un. (3) Smooth Trade Investment and trade cooperation is the focus of OBOR. The initiative will expand convenience of investment and trade cooperation by eliminating trade barriers. Member countries may explore new trade areas and improve trade structures, and deal with bilateral investment protection and tariffs to seek integrated investment and trade, and to activate regional economy through a large number of investments.. (4) Monetary finance. 2-5.

(28) The Monetary finance is an important support for OBOR. Therefore, strengthening financial integration is a necessary work. OBOR takes some specific measures, such as the establishment of monetary stability mechanism, investment and financing, credit access system. Some financial organizations have also been established, including the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the BRICS Development Bank, to expand the scope of multilateral financial cooperation. In addition, financial controls are also widely discussed in frequent cross-border exchanges.. (5) Interpersonal communication. 政治大 The mutual understanding is the social foundation of OBOR. Interpersonal 立. interaction must be taken into account when implementing OBOR. These. ‧ 國. 學. efforts will contribute to bringing more public support and deepening bilateral and multilateral cooperation among countries along OBOR route.. ‧. 2.1.5 The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, AIIB. sit. y. Nat. io. er. Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, abbreviated as AIIB, is a regional multilateral agency responsible for providing countries of Asia funds to support. n. a. v. l The purpose is to promote the infrastructure development. interconnection of ni. Ch. U. e n gprocess constructions and economic integration c h i in Asian region. There are 57 founding members, willing to cooperate in policy communication, facilities, trade, financial regulation and interpersonal communication. 4 Member States enjoy the shares in accordance with the initial subscription share capital. AIIB headquarters in Beijing of China, with the statutory capital of 100 billion dollars, in which China contributes the most, about 29.8 billion dollars. AIIB is a Chinese-led organization, strengthening cooperation with other Asian countries. Chinese government noted that in addition to individual investments, AIIB will co-finance with the World Bank and the Asian 4. 中國財政部。亞洲基礎設施協定。2016 年 10 月 12 日參照： http://www.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/caizhengxinwen/201506/P020150629360882378045.pdf 2-6.

(29) Development Bank 5 . AIIB supports OBOR and is essential to member countries. However, AIIB is not set up only for OBOR. In addition to providing support to countries along OBOR route, AIIB will also finance the infrastructure of all emerging markets.. 2.1.6 Why AIIB is needed In order to carry out OBOR, a huge financial backing is necessary. AIIB was brought out under the reason and was regarded as an important tool to concretize OBOR. The important attempts behind AIIB is to expand the relationship between emerging countries, establish political mutual trust,. 政治大. economic integration, and gather a community which has common cultural interests.. 立. ‧ 國. 學. The establishment of the AIIB was originally revealed by Xi Jinping during visit to Indonesia in 2013. He expressed his willingness to provide. ‧. assistance to the ASEAN countries in aspects of infrastructure, finance and techniques. AIIB grew up in the process of supporting developing countries and. Nat. sit. y. gradually became an important promoter to Asian economic development.. er. io. According to the ADB, Asia’s infrastructure needs about 8.2 trillion funds. n. a development. 6 There are vseveral major financing to stimulate Asian economic institutions, such as the. i l C n WorldhBank thei ADB, U but the funding is still e n gandc h. inadequate. In comparison, the loan examination by AIIB seems very efficient, having approved four investment plans in the six months from its establishment. The capital was more applied to infrastructure, which can be in line with the real needs of developing countries. 7 Since October 2014, the willing countries have signed a memorandum. By 5. 中國評論新聞網。亞投行助力“一帶一路”基礎設施建設，2016 年 6 月 17 日參照： http://hk.crntt.com/crn-webapp/doc/docDetailCreate.jsp?coluid=7&kindid=0&docid=104270165&mda te=0617153555 6 CNBC (2015, June 25). Is AIIB the answer to Asia’s infrastructure needs? Retrieved from: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/06/25/is-aiib-the-answer-to-asias-infrastructure-needs.html 7 The Economist (2016, June 30). The AIIB- The infrastructure of power. Retrieved from: http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21701494-reasons-be-enthusiastic-about-chin as-answer-world-bank-infrastructure 2-7.

(30) the end of March 2015, there are 57 founding members, and other countries can still join by the name of member states. The world’s top ten economic powers, except the United States and Japan, have become the founding members. 8. 2.1.7 The strategic arrangement and corridor connection of OBOR China has always claimed that it unswervingly stepped along the path of peaceful development, pursued a win-win strategy, and gradually deepened cooperation with neighboring countries. OBOR could promote friendly exchanges among the people of the countries and contribute to harmonious coexistence of groups with different races, beliefs and cultural traditions.. 政治大. Common development and common prosperity bring real benefits and welfare to people along the route.. 立. ‧ 國. seeks. interconnection. of. infrastructure. 學. OBOR. and. industries,. strengthening the connection of existent routes and nodes. Chinese. ‧. Development and Reform Commission issued “The vision and action of promoting the Silk Road economic belt and the 21st century Maritime Silk. sit. y. Nat. Road” in March 2015, 9 which generally described the framework, cooperation. io. er. priorities and mechanisms. It revealed OBOR will rely on international traffic corridors and use the large cities and main ports as nodes to build six. n. a. v. l C international economic cooperation corridors, including n i New Asia-Europe. i U. he. n g c h China-Central Asia-West Asia, Continental Bridge, China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Indochina. Peninsula,. China-Pakistan,. and. Bangladesh-China-. India-Myanmar. 10, 11. 8. BDO (2015, November). One Belt One Road. Singapore: BDO Advisory Pte Ltd. 中國國家發展和改革委員會(2015 年 3 月)。推動共建絲綢之路經濟帶和 21 世紀海上絲綢之路的願景與行動，參照：http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/gzdt/201503/t20150328_669091.html 10 香港貿易發展局。關於一帶一路，2016 年 10 月 24 日參照： http://beltandroad.hktdc.com/tc/about-the-belt-and-road-initiative/about-the-belt-and-road-initiative.aspx 11 China-Britain Business Council (2015, Sep). One Belt One Road- A role for UK Companies in developing China's new initiative- New Opportunities in China and beyond. Retrieved from: http://www.cbbc.org/cbbc/media/cbbc_media/One-Belt-One-Road-main-body.pdf 9. 2-8.

(31) Figure 2.3. Map of six international economic cooperation corridors. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. Source: 大公網, http://news.takungpao.com.hk/mainland/focus/2016-07/3340302.html. ‧. (1) New Asia-Europe Continental Bridge. sit. y. Nat. io. er. New Asia-Europe Continental Bridge, also known as “the second Asia-Europe Continental Bridge”, is international railway transport route from. n. a. v. i l C to Netherlands nRotterdam China’s Jiangsu Lianyungang by Xinjiang. U. h. e composed n g c h iof Longhai Railway and Lanxin Alashankou. The parts in China was railway line, running through China’s eastern, central and western provinces. and cities. After leaving China, the Bridge reaches European coastal ports by way of Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland. Relying on the Bridge, China has opened a number of cargo trains to achieve connection among rails, carrying out “one-time declaration, one-time check, one-time permission.” (2) China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor China, Mongolia and Russia neighbor with each other and deal with trade for a long time. In September 2014, the heads of the three countries met during the Dushanbe summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and agreed to 2-9.

(32) carry out tripartite cooperation on the basis of the existing basis and clarify the principles, direction and key areas of cooperation. The three leaders also agreed to connect the construction of the Silk Road Economic belt with Russia’s cross-Eurasian railway and Mongolian “grassland road.” Three sides will endeavor to strengthen the interconnection of railways and highways, and promote customs clearance and transport facilitation to build China-MongoliaRussia economic corridor. (3) China-Central Asia-West Asia economic corridor This corridor traveled from Xinjiang to the Mediterranean and the Arabian. 政治大. Peninsula by way of central and west Asia rail network. It mainly refers to five countries of central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan,. 立. Turkmenistan) and Iran and Turkey of west Asia.. ‧ 國. 學. The corridor contains important oil and gas channels, whose routes run over Turkey, the Arabian Peninsula, Iran, finally to Xinjiang. China-Central. ‧. Asia Gas Pipeline is one of the world’s longest natural gas pipelines, starting at. sit. y. Nat. Turkmen and Uzbek’s border, crossing Uzbek and South Kazakhstan and arriving in Horgos, Xinjiang. From Horgos, the gas pipeline could link to the. io. er. under-construction China’s second east-west gas pipeline.. n. al. i n C heconomic corridor (4) China-Indochina Peninsula engchi U. v. The corridor attempts to deepen exchanges and cooperation on the basis of the Greater Mekong Subregion economic cooperation program. In December 2014, Li Keqiang put forward three proposals about deepening China and Indochina Peninsula relations when attending the fifth summit of the Greater Mekong Subregion Economic Cooperation in Bangkok. These proposals include to jointly plan and construct all-round transportation network and industrial cooperation projects, to create a new model of financing cooperation and to promote sustainable and coordinated economic and social development. At present, the Greater Mekong countries are building 9 cross-region and cross-border roads, some of which have been completed. The corridor will also 2-10.

(33) be linked to the Pearl River Delta economic circle (Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Shenzhen area). In the future, the connection of Yangtze River Delta, Guangxi, Indochina and Singapore can be carried out by convenient high-speed rail and road transport. Subsequently, South China can share the prosperity and economic resource with Indochina Peninsula. (5) China-Pakistan economic corridor China-Pakistan Economic Corridor was proposed by Premier Li Keqiang when he visited Pakistan in May 2013. The goal is to create an economic artery which starts from Xinjiang Kashgar to Gwadar Port in the south. This corridor. 政治大. provides China a shortcut to the Middle East and Africa. At present, the two governments have initially formulated a visionary plan about the construction. 立. of roads, railways, oil and gas pipelines and cable from Kashgar to Gwadar. ‧ 國. 學. Port. According to the joint statement of China and Pakistan, both sides will actively promote energy, information and communication technology and. ‧. transportation to facilitate infrastructure and transport facilities in Pakistan. It is worth noting that this corridor will pass Kashmir, which drew India’s. io. sit. y. Nat. opposition.. er. (6) Bangladesh-China- India-Myanmar economic corridor. al. n. v i n In May 2013, during Li C Keqiang’s to India, China and India jointly h e n gvisit chi U. initiated the construction of the economic corridor. In December 2013, the first meeting of the joint working group was held in Kunming. The representatives. of the four governments discussed some issues, like development prospects, priority areas of cooperation and mechanism, and reached consensus over transport infrastructure, investment and business circulation, cultural exchanges. The members signed a memo and joint research program to formally establish cooperation mechanism of the four governments. China’s proposed corridor is mainly linked to South Asia, regarding India as an important partner and then further integrating west Asian region through India.. 2-11.

(34) ※China wants to consolidate regional status From the foregoing, we can find that OBOR took transportation and energy construction as the main tools to inject the technology and funds to the countries along the route. Supplemented by other real construction, the development of each subregion can be promoted. The development of economy and the stability of energy supply should be the main focus of China. One belt is the focus and one road is a supplement. This trend can be seen by the fact that most of the funds are allocated to land construction. For China, the southeastern coastal provinces are the area with large population and prosperous market. One Road is based on the existing basis, starting from the. 政治大. South China Sea, stretching to the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea and finally. 立. arriving to Mediterranean countries. China could connect to the important port. ‧ 國. 學. cities, obtain huge economic interests, and expand the maritime strength, which is in line with the theory of controlling the sea and should be the preferred. ‧. strategy by China.. y. Nat. However, the dispute of South China Sea continues and it is difficult for. io. sit. China to counter the dominance of US navy, let alone stand against the. er. long-term cooperation in the Western Pacific between United States and Japan.. n. a l if it is too dependent on managing China will suffer from risk trade and energy iv C. n. h e nChina hSea. transport activities through the South Therefore, OBOR is trying to i U gc. move the focus from the ocean to the land, and continues to influence the Eurasian continent by the interdependence of interests.. 2.1.8 The main challenges of OBOR OBOR held the banner of shared economic prosperity to move toward Asia, Europe and Africa continents, attracting a large number of countries. However, the spacious range refers to many countries with diverse geographical situation, natural environment, cultures, ethnic groups, and institutions. These conditions will inevitably bring a lot of challenges to the. 2-12.

(35) implementation of OBOR. Some challenges might include, (1) Political instability With the increase of cross-border activities, the political risks among countries will arise, such as trade embargoes, construction obstacles and corruption, especially under exchange with developing countries because developing countries relatively lack rule of law and are easy to produce political risks. Therefore, the involved countries of OBOR must be aware of the importance of cooperation and work together to prevent the relevant risks so that the mutual trust and win-win can be achieved.. 政治大. (2) Cultural conflicts. 立. Many areas along OBOR, such as Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central. ‧ 國. 學. Asia, and West Asia, are characterized by multiple cultures, religions and groups. The sporadic conflicts caused by ethnic groups or religions have been. ‧. happening for a long time. In the past history, the western countries resorted to. y. Nat. the superiority of economy, science and technology, politics and military to. io. sit. belittle and sacrifice non-western values and traditions. The ideal state of. er. coexistence and symbiosis of diverse cultures is not easy to achieve. The. n. al conflict of cultural or religious values has indeed brought i v a lot of security Ch. challenges to western powers.. n U engchi. Nowadays, with the stepping forward of OBOR, the issue of how these economically backward countries can feel China’s sincerity and respect is quite important when China pursues interpersonal communication. (3) Problem of financing OBOR covers a lot of developing countries. In the pursuit of infrastructure, interconnection of facilities, the huge funds are needed. At the beginning of the initiative, China has huge foreign exchange earnings. With the devaluation of Renminbi, capital loss, and decline of economic growth rate, the world began. 2-13.

(36) to question, “Can China really support OBOR?“12 Besides, does AIIB, the vault of OBOR, have enough combat power and endurance? For China, the final investment to AIIB was less than 1% of its foreign exchange reserves and about 70% of 100-billion-dollar statutory capital was raised from the other 56 member states. (4) Challenges from foreign powers Due to the strategic advantages along OBOR route, such as the economic crops and energy reserves in Central and West Asia, the prosperous economic activities along the Mediterranean area, and the strategic value of boundary. 政治大 to struggle for resources立 in these regions and tried to stop China to be the. between land and sea in Southeast and South Asia, the powers have been eager. ‧ 國. 學. hegemon. For example, Southeast Asia, as China’s neighborhood, has been regarded and influenced by the United States and Japan for a long time. In. ‧. recent years, Russia also entered the ASEAN countries, which will bring some challenges to OBOR.. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. n. v i n The Geographical of Southeast Asian C h Importance U i e h n c Countries of GreatergMekong Subregion. 2.2. Southeast Asia is located in the southeast of mainland China, east of India, west of New Guinea and north of Australia. It can be divided into two regions: Land Southeast Asia, that is, the Indochina Peninsula, includes Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. Maritime Southeast Asia, composed of the Malay Peninsula and the Malay Islands, includes Brunei, Malaysia, Timor-Leste, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore. 13 The Southeast Asian 12. The Economist (2016, June 30). The AIIB- The infrastructure of power. Retrieved from: http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21701494-reasons-be-enthusiastic-about-chin as-answer-world-bank-infrastructure 13 東南亞研究學院。Wikiversity，2016 年 11 月 15 日參照： https://beta.wikiversity.org/wiki/School:%E6%9D%B1%E5%8D%97%E4%BA%9E%E7%A0%94%E 7%A9%B6 2-14.

(37) countries of GMS in our study are equivalent to “Land Southeast Asia”. Southeast Asia and China have deep geographical relationship owing to the nearness and Southeast Asia was early influenced by Chinese culture. The Chinese have been widely distributed in the region. This study focuses on land Southeast Asia. However, land Southeast Asia and maritime Southeast Asia interact with each other frequently. We can show a more complete and logical discussion by the analysis starting from whole Southeast Asia then gradually to land Southeast Asia.. 2.2.1 Background of Southeast Asia. 政治大 exporting silk, ceramic 立 ware. Southeast Asia was part of the maritime Silk China began to trade with Southeast Asia early in the Han Dynasty,. ‧ 國. 學. Road and produced tea, cloth, paper, lacquer which were popular in the international market. About six hundred years ago, the Ming Dynasty navigator. ‧. Zheng He was engaged in seven maritime expeditions, during which the ships. Nat. sit. was named for Zheng He's original name.. y. docked at many parts of Southeast Asia. The capital of Central Java, Semarang,. er. io. In addition, the Chinese population went southward due to trade or other. n. a Yuan and Ming dynasties,vsome people moved to factors. During Tang, Song,. i l C n Southeast Asia and Chinese culture interact with the local culture. h e ntherefore gchi U. Vietnam was the most affected countries by the Chinese culture. From the Qin, Han to the Yuan, Ming and Qing Dynasties, Vietnam continued to do exchanges with China in political or military fields. Legal, academic, social, religious and artistic, customs, economic and cultural exchanges occurred between two countries. Southeast Asia is also affected by some cultures around the world other than Chinese culture, including India, Islam and Western cultures. 14 Indian. culture was the first culture impacting Southeast Asia. The Indian religion, language, customs, legal and political achievements may have been passed to 14. 嚴智宏，東南亞文化與社會。載於東南亞文化教學參考手冊。台北：教育部，頁 79-116。 2-15.

(38) some parts of Southeast Asia in the BC days. Many parts of Southeast Asia have cultural relics built under the influence of Hinduism and Buddhism, such as Khmer Angkor temple architecture. India has a great influence on the language of Southeast Asia. Many places of early Southeast Asia (except northern Vietnam and the Philippines), either directly used Sanskrit or Pali or used the Indian alphabet to spell their own languages. With regard to the influence of Islamic culture, there were Muslim activities in Southeast Asia after the tenth century, mainly scattering in the Malay Peninsula, Indonesia Sumatra, Java, Borneo, Sulawesi, Maluku Islands, and the southern Philippines. Maritime Southeast Asia was gradually. 政治大 Philippines). Islam has 立 become the main religion in the Malay and deeply incorporated into the Islamic cultural circle (except the central and northern. ‧ 國. 學. affected literature, art and life of the local residents.. Another important cultural system is Western culture, Western countries. ‧. headed east in the sixteenth century in order to find spices. Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands have entered Southeast Asia and established colonies. France. y. Nat. sit. and the United Kingdom also established colonies in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos,. er. io. Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei in the nineteenth century. By the. n. beginning of the twentieth a century, almost the whole vSoutheast Asia (except. i l C n Thailand) was colonized by thehWestern powers.UThe colonists brought their engchi. culture to the colonies and the local lives were more or less affected. For example, the Philippines becomes Southeast Asia’s largest Catholic country owing to the influence of Spain. Even though Southeast Asian countries have been independent, the Western culture still widely affects Southeast Asia through diplomatic relations, economic strength and internet. Southeast Asia has a large population of about 634 million people, 15 in which Indonesia takes the largest part, with more than 255 million people, ranked the fourth in the world. Brunei has the lowest population of 430 thousand people. The races in the region are very complex. The new Malayans 15. 中華民國外交部官方網站，2016 年 11 月 29 日參照：http://www.mofa.gov.tw/ 2-16.

(39) dominate, scattering in the Malay Peninsula, the Indonesian Islands, Borneo and the Philippine Islands. The main ethnic groups in Indonesia are the Javanese, the Sunda, the Madura. Thailand’s main ethnic groups are Thai, Chinese and Malay; Cambodia’s are Mon Khmer; Vietnam’s are Vietnamese, Dai, Miao and Thai; Laos’ are the Liao, Thai and Shan. The Philippines’ are Bisayans, Tagalogs, IloKanos and Bikols. In addition to the above aborigines, there are Chinese. 16 As mentioned above, Southeast Asia has a large population and the potential of emerging markets. However, the diversity of races, language and religious beliefs would bring a considerable degree of challenge for. 政治大 integration. Especially colonial 立 rule has hurt the confidence of Southeast Asian government’s cooperation, industrial investment, economic and trade. ‧ 國. 學. people on their own traditions. Historical records left by colonial rule mostly view the local area from the colonial point. When Southeast Asian people. ‧. rebuild their own history, they may have a stronger sense of autonomy due to the rise of consciousness. How OBOR can share the interests and consider. sit. y. Nat. different needs, and not let Southeast Asian countries feel oppressed in. io. al. n. of OBOR initiative.. er. economical or racial aspects is an important condition for successful promotion. Ch. engchi. 16. i n U. v. 周禮順(2003)，東南亞區域安全之研究。國立政治大學外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班論文。 2-17.

(40) Table 2.1 Basic information of Southeast Asian countries. Country. Population (10 thousand people). Area(km2). Religion. Language. Vietnam. 9,072. Buddhism、 Catholicism、 331,051 Taoism、 Christianity. Laos. 649.2. 236,800 Buddhism. Liao. Cambodia. 1,590. 181,035 Buddhism. Myanmar. 5,632. 治Buddhism 政676,578 大. Khmer. Thailand. 6,572. 514,000 Buddhism. Thai. 282,764 Catholicism. English and Philippine. 330,257 Islam. Malayan、English and Chinese. ‧ 國. 3,051. y. n. al. 25,599. Brunei. 43. Timor-Leste. 120. Total. sit. 553. io Indonesia. Buddhism、 716 Taoism、Islam、 Christianity. er. Nat. Singapore. 10,600. ‧. Malaysia. Burmese. 學. The Philippines. 立. 63,481. Ch. i n U. 1,904,569 Islam. Vietnamese. v. i e n 5,765 g c hIslam. 15,007 Catholicism. English、 Malayan、 Chinese、Tamil Indonesian Malayan Tetum、Portuguese. 4,478,542. Source: Edited from Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ROC: http://www.mofa.gov.tw/. 2-18.

(41) 2.2.2 The Geographical Value of Southeast Asia (1) Geographical location and natural resources Southeast Asia is located amid the mainland China, India, the Indian Ocean, Australia and the West Pacific, composed of the peninsula, the islands and inner sea. Peninsula contains the Indochina Peninsula and the Malay Peninsula. The islands are mainly composed of large and small islands amid Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. The larger islands are Sumatra, Borneo, Java, Sulawesi, West New Guinea, Mindanao and Lusong Island. The South China Sea is the most important inner sea. With the exploration. 政治大 recent years. Malacca Strait and the Sunda Strait are also important straits, 立. of rich fisheries and oil resources, the South China Sea was in a dispute in which control the maritime lines from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean.. ‧ 國. 學. Southeast Asia is located in the crossroad amid Eurasian continent, the. ‧. Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean and Oceania. It is the world’s major air and sea transport hub, connecting Australia, New Zealand in the southeast, China,. y. Nat. sit. Japan and South Korea in the north, and India, Arabia, Africa in the west. In. er. io. recent years, oil as the main energy was transported by ship. The strait which can control the entranceaof vessels plays an important role, and the strategic. n. v i l n importance of Southeast AsiaC is h rising subsequently. engchi U. (2) Regional economy and trade In August 1967, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand issued a joint declaration in Bangkok to establish the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) based on the pursuit of a common vision, and a cooperative community. Since 1984, Brunei, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia have joined, forming the current government organization with 10 official members. 2-19.

(42) Southeast Asian countries recognize the importance of mutual cooperation after the financial turmoil, so pay more attention to the regional economic integration. In addition to integrating the internal development through ASEAN, Southeast Asian Nations actively signed free trade agreements (FTA) with the external partners. For example, in 2004, the ASEAN signed “China- ASEAN Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Framework on Trade and Goods” with China, in the direction of promoting the establishment of free trade agreement area (ASEAN plus one). In 2010 “China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone” was launched, which is the world’s most populous free trade zone and the world’s third largest, following. 政治大 participant 立 countries, providing. the European Union and North American free trade zone. The free trade zone is beneficial to the. a mutually beneficial. ‧ 國. 學. opportunity and achieving an amount of win-win progress. In 2002 when agreement was first discussed, bilateral trade volume was about US 54.8 billion.. ‧. By 2014, bilateral trade volume increased to 480 billion, an increase of 9 times within 12 years and an average annual 20% growth rate. Two-way investment. sit. y. Nat. increased from 3.3 billion dollars in 2003 to 12.2 billion in 2014, which is. io. er. about 4-time increase. At present, China is the largest trade partner of ASEAN, and ASEAN is China’s third largest trading partner. The two-way investment. n. a. v. l Chas accumulated to more between China and ASEAN n i than 150 billion US dollars. 17. hengchi U. The geographical proximity between China and Southeast Asia provides the potential and tacit understanding of economic and trade cooperation. Generally speaking, the farther distance is between countries, the lower possibility of trade interchange is. This is why countries spent most of time on adjacent countries. 18 China still maintain close relations with neighboring countries even if it has become the world’s second largest economy and 17. China FTA Network (2015, Dec 2). Gao Hucheng Is Interviewed by the Xinhua News Agency on the Successful Signing of the China-ASEAN FTA Upgrading Protocol. Retrieved from: http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/enarticle/chinadmen/endmnews/201512/29597_1.html 18 Lola Caballero Laporta (2015, May 26). The Maritime Silk Road; China and The ASEAN. THE FINAL REPORT OF DEGREE IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND MARKETING. Retrieved from: http://repositori.upf.edu/bitstream/handle/10230/24987/Caballero_2015.pdf?sequence=1 2-20.