第五章 價格的結構轉變
第二節 建議
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第二節 建議
本文除了在技術上、實務上和理論上提出操作結論之外,在三大研究 主題中,也圍繞著該主題之操作步驟論述相關的經濟意涵。茲將操作此三 項步驟時,獲致之心得整理成幾點相關建議,說明如下:
其一,觀察住宅市場之消費量變動時,應考慮住宅品質的變化。市場 常見以消費量(總銷金額、樓地板面積等),做為觀察市場交易是否熱絡的 說法可能過於直觀。該直觀的消費量數據,忽略了住宅實為異質性商品,
亦即消費者所消費的住宅其實包含一組住宅特徵屬性,討論住宅消費量之 變動時,若未同時考慮住宅品質之變化,將不能清楚觀察市場的消費量變 化情形而對於市場有錯誤解讀。
其二,過去政府的健全住宅政策往往針對房價問題,將政策目標設定 為降低房價增幅,因此多專注於透過金融貸款工具增加住宅購買門檻,或 增加稅賦提高持有成本,若將政策目標設定為提升家戶感受到的住宅效用 水準,或可有不同作法。新北市的實證結果顯示,即使在房價高漲的狀況 下,政府若能持續投入公共建設增加市郊之公共設施服務水準,將有助於 市郊提升住宅服務品質以及改善家戶的處境。
其三,當以特徵價格函數編制房價指數時,受限於指數公式為固定權 重,特徵價格函數的變數往往不易新增,也不容易增加更細緻的區位變數。
然而,實證結果反映,若能適當地將區位變數重新依都市發展狀況分類,
即使不新增變數,在相同的樣本量之下,對於特徵價格模型表現應能有所 提升。
其四,在房價上漲的背景之下,家戶的住宅特徵消費將發生替代行為,
若未能觀察家戶的消費行為改變,即時置換基期或改採費式指數處理,可 能發生拉氏與裴氏房價指數的偏誤,影響市場的短期解讀。尤其住宅新推 個案的產品定位與較為活潑且變化較中古屋快,編制房價指數時應留意住 宅產品之變化。
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附錄
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全部樣本 2489 56.66 50.00 240.00 17.75 27.43 53.19 47.00 350.00 7.00 33.83 39.77 24.00 978.00 1.00 53.71 91 Q3 32 39.66 38.75 66.53 23.00 12.69 68.56 72.25 140.00 14.00 34.40 28.63 14.00 144.00 4.00 33.56 Q4 37 36.44 36.25 56.50 22.50 8.71 51.70 49.00 124.50 10.50 29.66 32.49 19.00 291.00 3.00 49.6692
Q1 31 36.02 35.70 59.50 22.25 8.85 49.08 53.50 110.00 9.00 28.88 40.87 31.00 213.00 3.00 45.17 Q2 40 35.11 34.00 58.00 19.50 11.00 43.24 39.75 91.50 10.50 21.01 59.18 28.00 408.00 3.00 84.84 Q3 39 37.08 37.44 68.10 21.50 11.56 52.85 51.50 127.50 11.50 26.56 31.33 18.00 200.00 5.00 35.95 Q4 57 35.53 33.50 63.00 18.25 10.77 42.83 35.00 134.00 9.00 29.22 71.93 27.00 740.00 5.00 113.63
93
Q1 49 33.62 30.50 65.10 18.10 10.07 40.07 36.00 106.00 11.00 23.52 62.10 32.00 312.00 6.00 73.47 Q2 74 38.15 38.50 63.50 20.90 9.75 51.22 46.00 140.00 10.00 28.13 38.46 25.00 444.00 2.00 54.69 Q3 73 37.98 35.50 70.10 24.50 10.35 51.99 48.00 121.00 11.00 25.81 39.59 32.00 131.00 3.00 31.54 Q4 72 35.87 32.75 57.00 24.00 9.00 47.03 43.75 125.00 7.00 24.30 47.68 27.50 300.00 3.00 53.47
94
Q1 77 38.37 38.00 75.10 18.30 10.79 50.45 45.00 182.50 8.50 30.55 41.25 32.00 161.00 5.00 35.85 Q2 68 38.39 38.75 63.00 20.50 9.67 44.99 47.00 98.50 10.00 22.54 49.16 32.00 295.00 6.00 59.76 Q3 75 38.33 36.00 70.00 21.50 9.73 48.51 45.00 205.50 8.50 33.34 54.03 36.00 453.00 4.00 66.12 Q4 96 39.81 38.25 80.10 17.75 12.34 46.93 43.00 248.00 8.00 34.28 56.61 38.00 381.00 6.00 64.06
95
Q1 64 42.24 43.00 62.10 22.00 10.51 44.64 37.75 214.00 10.50 35.07 52.81 25.00 300.00 3.00 71.59 Q2 87 41.67 38.25 80.00 21.50 12.24 47.84 38.50 165.00 9.00 32.54 45.93 24.00 308.00 3.00 52.45 Q3 66 46.71 46.75 80.00 25.00 12.75 40.55 35.00 96.00 7.50 23.62 62.09 27.00 978.00 4.00 125.59 Q4 69 46.65 42.50 75.10 28.10 13.62 48.23 44.00 181.50 12.00 30.31 46.52 22.00 390.00 4.00 63.71
96
Q1 61 52.09 49.00 100.00 30.50 18.79 49.67 38.00 162.50 9.00 36.69 38.92 26.00 170.00 4.00 34.91 Q2 73 53.51 51.00 95.00 30.00 15.20 48.08 39.50 145.00 11.00 27.87 39.07 23.00 251.00 6.00 44.68 Q3 65 55.02 53.00 120.00 26.00 17.90 57.65 50.00 180.00 16.00 35.65 37.14 20.00 178.00 1.00 39.09 Q4 79 53.62 50.00 85.00 33.00 14.10 54.69 51.50 150.00 9.50 32.50 33.95 24.00 179.00 4.00 32.96
97
Q1 64 58.49 57.50 120.00 29.00 17.78 57.09 50.25 145.50 16.50 28.99 37.38 20.50 195.00 3.00 39.47 Q2 53 65.16 57.00 150.00 34.00 24.47 68.65 52.50 210.00 14.00 48.60 37.58 25.00 230.00 3.00 43.79 Q3 52 59.97 59.50 118.00 29.00 16.42 55.29 53.25 133.00 17.50 25.62 33.62 16.50 195.00 2.00 39.27 Q4 42 59.18 57.00 100.00 26.00 17.93 57.40 52.75 146.50 10.50 29.38 29.45 20.50 106.00 3.00 27.47
98
Q1 15 54.37 49.50 95.00 30.00 18.35 70.30 57.50 187.50 24.00 46.17 46.13 32.00 127.00 6.00 41.47 Q2 23 55.30 50.50 125.00 30.00 18.90 62.80 57.00 265.00 16.50 50.53 34.70 28.00 105.00 5.00 27.19 Q3 29 54.52 48.00 142.50 30.00 23.15 51.24 41.00 177.00 11.50 38.72 26.07 20.00 125.00 1.00 26.09 Q4 45 60.93 53.00 135.00 33.00 22.11 63.53 54.50 350.00 21.00 50.74 31.40 20.00 180.00 4.00 36.91
99
Q1 42 62.37 60.00 120.00 36.00 21.46 63.61 58.00 234.00 16.00 40.02 39.21 25.50 209.00 1.00 38.37 Q2 78 66.71 63.00 130.00 35.00 18.77 58.94 52.00 207.00 14.00 31.16 31.85 23.00 158.00 2.00 30.32 Q3 50 63.32 61.50 140.00 40.00 18.52 57.06 49.25 170.00 16.50 32.93 30.08 16.50 132.00 1.00 30.09 Q4 36 74.29 67.50 150.00 45.00 25.19 65.74 56.50 241.50 20.00 42.94 25.50 14.50 154.00 3.00 29.18
100
Q1 36 72.42 67.00 160.00 42.00 23.84 60.21 54.50 162.00 20.50 32.60 34.19 24.00 136.00 6.00 30.39 Q2 25 78.74 76.00 145.00 35.00 27.79 71.86 51.50 270.00 15.00 66.54 20.80 16.00 108.00 1.00 22.44 Q3 42 76.23 71.00 135.00 43.00 25.66 64.18 64.50 135.00 15.00 31.29 23.86 18.50 66.00 1.00 18.20 Q4 34 83.41 76.00 145.00 39.00 30.78 66.91 55.00 208.50 20.00 42.23 30.68 14.50 273.00 2.00 49.38
101
Q1 24 82.46 66.50 140.00 45.00 31.54 59.06 56.75 170.00 19.00 30.31 24.75 19.00 70.00 2.00 18.15 Q2 34 89.75 71.00 230.00 40.00 41.43 66.25 57.00 240.00 18.00 48.66 37.21 26.50 111.00 3.00 28.53 Q3 34 79.35 70.00 240.00 43.00 36.03 57.75 50.00 182.50 20.50 35.32 21.12 15.00 81.00 1.00 19.05 Q4 38 86.53 81.00 200.00 55.00 27.72 52.58 42.75 173.00 13.50 35.17 38.34 23.00 141.00 3.00 37.81
102
Q1 31 79.68 72.00 140.00 46.00 27.43 50.50 41.00 133.00 14.50 30.75 43.39 14.00 685.00 1.00 120.68 Q2 32 88.44 81.50 155.00 55.00 25.48 53.56 52.25 133.50 21.00 30.84 25.38 21.00 62.00 6.00 17.14 Q3 34 93.50 85.00 180.00 48.00 32.30 54.34 48.25 137.50 12.50 29.78 27.47 21.50 112.00 4.00 23.90 Q4 31 94.73 85.00 200.00 52.00 38.97 65.06 56.00 178.00 17.50 42.56 37.16 22.00 204.00 3.00 42.34
103
Q1 23 95.67 81.00 155.00 58.00 33.62 44.11 39.50 96.50 10.00 23.16 30.22 22.00 112.00 7.00 24.43 Q2 45 91.90 80.00 180.00 53.00 28.19 53.52 55.00 110.00 17.50 25.09 25.89 19.00 175.00 2.00 28.35 Q3 39 94.03 95.00 160.00 51.00 28.96 56.19 45.50 200.00 17.00 38.26 29.18 21.00 260.00 1.00 41.19 Q4 29 89.21 80.00 160.00 50.00 26.21 44.02 37.50 108.50 19.00 22.79 27.83 17.00 157.00 2.00 32.67 104 Q1 13 98.12 105.00 135.00 55.00 26.37 53.73 46.00 199.50 20.00 46.02 33.46 24.00 65.00 5.00 22.98 Q2 32 94.39 85.00 175.00 45.00 32.15 52.34 42.25 131.00 18.50 30.87 24.69 18.50 86.00 5.00 19.29
‧
‧
全部樣本 2678 26.14 22.00 81.00 8.15 13.30 54.19 44.50 400.00 9.50 29.88 102.47 55.00 1,920.00 1.00 150.6691 Q3 16 15.91 16.50 22.00 10.30 3.51 51.22 39.25 119.50 27.00 25.55 108.00 46.50 504.00 12.00 134.25 Q4 32 15.55 14.20 24.70 11.75 3.43 53.14 39.50 160.00 24.00 30.61 98.16 34.50 1,222.00 4.00 213.34
92
Q1 23 15.13 14.00 23.60 11.70 2.96 39.11 36.50 74.50 28.50 10.49 86.61 59.00 418.00 5.00 100.78 Q2 29 16.18 15.50 31.50 10.45 4.14 46.71 36.00 151.00 21.00 27.26 91.45 71.00 418.00 5.00 87.33 Q3 35 14.82 15.00 25.00 10.00 3.20 42.73 36.50 108.00 20.50 18.60 123.97 46.00 1,587.00 5.00 269.44 Q4 44 15.95 15.25 24.50 10.00 4.01 50.80 44.25 135.00 16.50 25.36 101.48 51.50 706.00 4.00 133.86
93
Q1 48 15.18 14.30 23.25 9.70 3.58 46.89 39.25 111.00 18.00 21.21 93.88 61.50 384.00 4.00 90.10 Q2 60 16.44 15.88 32.40 11.70 3.65 52.67 41.75 180.00 13.50 29.29 122.03 75.00 622.00 4.00 126.11 Q3 56 17.55 16.88 31.00 11.45 3.93 48.91 39.50 131.00 23.50 22.94 109.55 74.00 568.00 7.00 106.90 Q4 77 16.09 15.50 27.50 10.00 4.02 53.59 42.00 215.00 15.00 31.07 140.55 74.00 1,008.00 8.00 199.73
94
Q1 58 16.94 15.70 32.50 11.50 4.21 54.20 41.75 130.00 11.00 28.22 137.57 69.00 1,350.00 5.00 242.15 Q2 60 16.92 15.95 34.00 10.00 4.76 45.57 40.50 110.00 9.50 21.73 113.45 52.50 727.00 11.00 154.35 Q3 66 16.85 15.18 36.00 11.10 5.00 52.45 46.50 175.00 22.50 25.51 159.91 86.50 1,530.00 4.00 245.69 Q4 78 16.76 15.00 34.50 11.25 4.76 57.37 46.00 174.50 15.50 29.76 121.09 58.00 810.00 3.00 152.28
95
Q1 65 16.95 15.85 28.50 8.15 4.71 50.00 43.00 126.00 14.00 23.15 98.00 42.00 882.00 5.00 145.35 Q2 90 17.65 16.75 40.50 11.10 5.16 51.75 42.75 134.00 17.50 26.56 109.29 50.00 810.00 3.00 148.14 Q3 76 18.22 16.90 35.80 8.90 5.76 54.41 41.50 137.50 18.50 26.79 111.20 39.00 1,556.00 4.00 219.49 Q4 65 18.82 18.00 37.00 10.20 5.73 56.13 44.00 174.50 14.50 30.65 112.42 70.00 407.00 3.00 111.27
96
Q1 62 20.90 20.75 43.00 11.70 6.96 53.45 45.00 131.00 16.00 26.50 117.37 63.00 994.00 3.00 157.92 Q2 73 20.70 19.50 43.50 11.80 7.52 52.16 43.00 123.00 16.50 24.70 131.56 68.00 795.00 1.00 166.96 Q3 71 21.12 18.00 49.00 12.50 7.65 56.05 49.00 140.00 10.50 28.52 91.15 63.00 420.00 6.00 99.44 Q4 85 22.25 22.00 54.00 12.70 8.16 54.84 44.50 172.50 18.50 30.39 128.04 58.00 1,065.00 3.00 181.77
97 Q4 46 27.48 25.50 65.00 14.00 10.53 67.41 49.00 228.00 25.00 46.20 83.30 44.00 540.00 1.00 110.11
99
Q1 33 27.45 26.00 65.00 12.00 11.64 56.79 50.00 130.00 20.00 24.76 106.27 55.00 530.00 8.00 121.68 Q2 35 29.50 27.50 51.00 13.00 10.15 68.59 53.00 137.50 23.00 34.58 75.51 45.00 402.00 12.00 81.54 Q3 46 31.71 30.00 70.00 14.50 12.22 65.36 52.00 220.00 23.00 38.54 89.98 56.50 528.00 5.00 111.33 Q4 47 32.18 31.00 81.00 13.00 12.99 58.66 46.50 187.00 19.00 36.01 94.00 60.00 507.00 5.00 106.52
100
Q1 42 34.70 28.00 73.00 16.00 13.89 75.58 60.25 400.00 17.00 58.12 92.26 52.50 484.00 2.00 108.29 Q2 36 36.22 37.50 65.00 15.50 13.93 64.83 52.25 195.00 22.00 36.17 83.47 70.00 397.00 5.00 85.49 Q3 41 40.27 40.00 65.00 18.00 14.27 71.56 62.50 305.00 26.00 49.61 95.66 62.00 600.00 4.00 107.35 Q4 50 34.38 32.50 62.50 14.00 11.92 53.74 50.50 125.00 21.50 20.36 73.56 31.50 648.00 4.00 106.86
101
Q1 43 33.88 33.00 68.00 15.00 12.07 59.28 49.00 186.50 17.00 35.64 61.72 42.00 264.00 3.00 61.04 Q2 52 35.68 32.50 70.00 16.00 13.51 57.92 44.75 146.50 22.00 32.32 75.42 41.00 304.00 1.00 78.13 Q3 48 31.06 28.00 63.00 15.50 12.17 48.21 42.50 145.00 22.50 22.37 97.96 75.50 614.00 4.00 105.94 Q4 55 38.16 39.00 68.00 17.00 13.16 55.55 45.50 200.00 20.50 35.54 77.36 48.00 1,137.00 3.00 153.79
102
Q1 38 40.89 41.50 75.00 19.00 13.59 53.26 42.25 128.50 24.50 25.13 126.29 51.00 1,619.00 1.00 267.64 Q2 58 35.92 32.50 62.00 19.00 12.46 48.40 42.75 139.00 22.00 21.21 93.72 70.00 317.00 12.00 70.65 Q3 53 37.61 36.00 60.00 20.00 11.34 52.25 46.00 127.50 15.50 26.02 159.17 60.00 1,578.00 7.00 287.65 Q4 58 40.16 38.00 74.00 19.00 11.32 56.06 45.50 270.00 17.00 38.73 90.95 61.00 592.00 1.00 99.56
103
Q1 49 39.58 34.00 75.00 18.00 15.43 53.76 40.50 170.00 25.50 34.67 97.20 69.00 635.00 6.00 106.37 Q2 56 41.41 39.00 75.00 21.00 14.30 54.82 43.25 197.50 23.00 34.18 78.13 55.00 378.00 5.00 78.83 Q3 74 41.78 42.00 70.00 20.00 13.63 49.89 45.00 132.50 19.50 21.97 117.50 53.00 1,920.00 4.00 255.29 Q4 40 42.04 38.00 70.00 20.00 13.40 48.19 39.25 175.00 22.50 29.32 98.35 51.50 500.00 1.00 114.08 104 Q1 34 44.10 43.00 65.00 25.00 10.83 40.84 36.00 111.50 23.00 16.97 74.65 41.50 277.00 17.00 66.76 Q2 55 40.45 38.00 68.00 19.00 12.73 42.08 35.50 95.50 21.00 17.29 78.27 50.00 338.00 6.00 69.95