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第二節 後續研究建議
本文所受最大研究限制在於研究經濟成效時的時序太短,無法呈現經濟成 效的真實性。故本文建議,未來歐亞經濟聯盟實行逾 5 年後,可針對貿易效果 與各成員國經濟變化上來進行研究,觀察聯盟是否達到自由貿易之初衷。檢驗 聯盟實行成效也是本文對後續研究的建議,無論是針對政治成效或經濟成效,
皆對其未來展望有很大的幫助。本文的實行挑戰可做為未來研究的自變數,觀 察這些挑戰是否在實行上有發揮影響,甚至可作為聯盟決策之用。
此外,在研究方法上,本文主要使用文獻檢閱法進行研究,第一個面臨的 問題是研究文獻不多,未能客觀檢視該聯盟的現況,第二個則是較容易被限縮 在官方公布新聞或報告,在國際組織上也尚未出現聯盟為主體的貿易數據,本 文建議未來待國內外將歐亞經濟聯盟視為重要經濟體且上線更新後,可收集更 為完整的數據,甚者,若能進行訪談研究,則可以收集多方訪談之第一手資 料,廣納不同面向的意見,有助於呈現歐亞經濟聯盟最公正、獨立的評論。
最後,本文建議未來研究可以延伸到對外與其他國家或經濟體之合作協議 之成效,包括與越南、新加坡、印度等亞洲國家的經貿合作,雖說實際上是俄 國受到歐盟制裁的反應,但是一方面也是俄羅斯重新壯大的機會。
中國與歐亞經濟聯盟的合作已勢在必行,尤其是針對最近較廣為討論地一 帶一路政策與絲路經濟帶計畫,在歐亞經濟聯盟已然成型的此刻,中國也正籌 備更大規模的區域整合,未來計畫與歐亞經濟聯盟合作。假若未來一帶一路正 式實行,想必對俄羅斯與聯盟有利也有弊,這樣的合作成果值得加以分析。
最後,本文也期待未來有對於台灣與歐亞經濟聯盟的關係更進一步的專門 研究。台灣目前與俄羅斯、東歐地區的貿易尚未成熟,目前俄羅斯與亞洲國家 的貿易仍然以中國為主。但是台灣仍然有機會從歐亞經濟聯盟中取得經濟利 益,例如,哈薩克與中國貿易甚密,台灣若有機會加入一帶一路政策,可藉此 與哈薩克或其他中亞諸國進行貿易,將商品從哈薩克賣到俄羅斯,既可享有免 關稅,也可以在俄羅斯打開台灣商品知名度。對台灣而言,歐亞經濟聯盟或許 是一個遙遠、毫不相干的組織,然而,台灣仍然有機會在不可能中找到商業利 益,進而從東歐市場搶奪先機。
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