E1
Consumer Coupons Present Business Opportunities
In order to stimulate spending the government has decided to issue coupons before Chinese New Year sets in. Retailers are eager to take advantage of the opportunity and are already putting together promotional packages, whether or not they meet sales targets will depend on the economic environment and overall consumer confidence.
The subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S. and the financial crisis that followed shortly thereafter had a wide-reaching effect, impacting economies the world over. In response, many countries implemented a stimulus package, with Taiwan being no exception. Following in Japan’s footsteps, the Taiwanese government also issued coupons with the hope of stimulating consumption, to much success. Hong Kong and other areas in Asia are considering adopting similar economic measures.
經濟危機的公式
2008 年的股市崩潰使全球經濟衰退，至今未恢復，而當時爆發的原因不只一 個。幫客戶理財的過程很複雜，金融投資公司得依賴他們發展出來的一套神秘又 難懂的公式，導致看不出來風險何在。但就像三年前發覺到，如此難懂的公式即 不符合現實生活又不時令人迷失。
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E2
Business Opportunities brought by Consumption Vouchers
In order to boost consumption, the government decided to issue consumption vouchers prior to the Chinese New Year. Retailers are looking forward to the business
opportunities brought by consumption vouchers, and are actively planning promotions.
However, whether or not the predicted target will be reached, will depend on the economy and consumer confidence.
The US subprime mortgage crisis which then caused the global financial crisis, has impacted all countries in the world. Each country has taken stimulus measures in order to help revive their economy. Taiwan is no exception. Recently, the Taiwanese
government has followed in Japan’s footsteps, and announced that they will be issuing consumption vouchers. Hoping to boost consumption in the private sector, and also revive the economy. Other Asian countries, including Hong Kong, are also considering a similar measure.
經濟災難的公式
2008 年的市場崩盤使全球經濟衰退，至今仍持續低迷的狀態。這是由許多原 因造成的，其中一項因素就是數學。金融投資公司開發了複雜的投資方式用來投 資客戶的錢。並使用一些看不懂的公式判斷投資的風險。然而三年前的經驗告訴 我們這些公式或者是模型無法完全呈現真實世界的面貌。往往它們會將我們引導 至錯誤的方向。
這些風險模型照理來說是準確的，因此帶給投資公司信心將借來的龐大金額加以 投資。這些模型會顯示投資的風險有多大，以及應該如何投資才能夠抵消這些風 險。然而模型中許多的不確定性帶給投資人不切實際的信心。
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E3
Business Opportunities Presented by Consumer Vouchers
In order to stimulate consumption, the government has decided to roll out consumer vouchers before the Lunar New Year. Retailers are gearing up with ways to best capitalize on business opportunities from these vouchers by coming out with deals.
As to whether target consumption levels will be met, all will be dependent on the economic environment and consumer confidence.
The American sub-prime mortgage crisis led to the outburst of the financial tsunami, the economic effects of which were felt all around the world. Countries started employing stimulus measures to revitalize their economy. Taiwan followed suit and announced the roll out of consumer vouchers, building on Japan’s experience with vouchers, in hopes to stimulate private consumption which would in turn boost the economy. Hong Kong and other Asian regions are considering similar approaches.
經濟災難的公式
股市於 2008 全面崩盤，導致世界經濟蕭條，至今仍無法恢復，其背後有種種 原因，其一為數學。各金融投資公司已發展出過於複雜的方式來替客戶資金進行 投資，導致他們必須依賴過時的公式來評斷所承擔的風險。但，就從三年前慘痛 的經驗裡所學到，這些所謂的公式─或模型─無法準確反應真實世界，而有時亦可 能誤導我們。
大家所認定風險模型的強處，讓這些投資公司可以信心滿滿用大量的貸款來將 自己的賭注以小博大。這些模型可透露賭注風險的大小，以及可能抵銷這些風險 的其他投資。但這些模型中龐大的不確定性帶給這些投資公司錯誤的信心。
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C1
Huge Business Opportunity Brought about by Consumer Vouchers
To stimulate consumption, the government decided to give off consumer vouchers before Chinese New Year. Retailers are excited about the potential business opportunity and are planning for sales promotion. However, whether the anticipated consumption goal will be met depends on the economy and on consumer confidence.
The subprime mortgage crisis that broke out in the U.S. led to the global financial crisis, which greatly impacted the world economy. Countries around the world have been trying to recover from the economic crisis, and Taiwan is no exception. Recently, based on the measures implemented in Japan, Taiwan’s government announced to give off consumer vouchers in the hope of stimulating consumption and in turn reviving the economy. Hong Kong and other Asian countries are considering taking similar
measures.
經濟危機的解決之道
2008 年使世界經濟陷入衰退，且現仍正發揮影響的市場大災難有許多原因。
其中一個原因與數學相關。許多投資公司演算出複雜的方式用來投資客戶的錢，
因此這些公司逐漸習慣以晦澀難懂的公式來判斷投資風險。不過三年前我們學到 的慘痛教訓告訴我們：這些公式或模型不足以完全反映實際情況，且很可能會誤 導我們的判斷。
投資公司深信這些風險模型的準確度，因此這些公司有自信將他們向客戶借來的 這一大筆錢拿去投資並且獲利。這些風險模型會顯示這些投資具有多少風險，也 會顯示哪些其他的投資標的可以抵消該風險。然而這些模型中本具有很大的不確 定性，給了投資公司錯誤的自信。
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C2
The Great Commercial Potential of Consumer Voucher
In order to simulate consumption, the government has decided to distribute consumer voucher before the Chinese New Year. Retailers are all well-prepared for this great opportunity and are actively drafting up some sales promotion plans. However, whether the policy is able to achieve its objective is still based on the overall economic
environment and consumer confidence.
After the outbreak of subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S., the financial tsunami follows, which has great impact on the economy throughout the world. Every country has launched revitalization programs to save its economy, and Taiwan is no exception.
Recently, Taiwan’s government has distributed consumer voucher to simulate consumption and vitalize the economy based on Japan’s experience. Hong Kong and other regions in Asia also take similar measures.
引發經濟大災難的公式
2008 年的股市崩盤讓世界經濟蕭條不已，影響持續至今，起因有很多個，「數 學公式」是其中之一。金融投顧公司投資客戶金錢的方式非常複雜，因此它們需 要依賴難解的公式來判斷他們承受的風險有多高。然而我們在三年前得知了不幸 的事實─那些公式或模型，只是現實世界失真的映像，有時嚴重誤導了人們。
投顧公司深信風險模型的力量，而敢於拿它們向投資人借來的鉅款放手一搏。
那些模型會告訴他們投資的風險有多高、運用哪些其他的投資方式能抵銷風險。
然而那些模型的不確定性很大，卻給了投資公司「不切實際」的自信。
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C3
Great Business Opportunity of Consumer Voucher
To stimulate the consumption, the government decided to distribute consumer vouchers before the Lunar New Year. Retailers are eager to harvest the business opportunities that consumer vouchers might bring along. However, achieving the goal of boosting consumption still depends on the economic environment and consumer confidence.
The breakout of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States led to further financial crisis that impacted global economy. In response to which, countries around the world take the measure of stimulating local economy and Taiwan is one of them.
Taking reference from Japan, Taiwan began to distribute consumer vouchers in hope to boost consumption among people and to stimulate the economy overall. Other Asian economies including Hong Kong are thinking about taking the same measure.
經濟災難處方籤
由於 2008 年市場崩壞造成至今尚未停止的全球經濟衰退，其因諸多，數學是 其中一員。金融投資公司開發了複雜的投資方案來幫助客戶投資資產，而這套方 式的風險評估仰賴的又是一套神秘晦澀的方程式。然而我們這三年來學到的苦痛 經驗告訴我們，這些方程式、模型無法全然反映真實世界，有時誤導效果還高到 不行。
風險模型的預期結果讓投資公司信心十足，可以賭上巨額借款進行槓桿操作，
風險模型可以顯示出該投資風險程度，以及運用哪一項投資能夠抵銷該風險，而 模型中那大多的不確定性，就讓金融公司有了錯誤的希望。
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C4
Consumer Voucher Creates Business Opportunities
To stimulate consumption, the government has made the decision to distribute consumer vouchers before the Spring Festival. Anxious to grasp this golden business opportunity brought about by the distribution of consumer vouchers, retailers have actively made plans to promote sales. Whether they can reach their projected sales goals is a matter that will be determined by two factors: economic environment and consumer confidence.
The US subprime mortgage crisis partly contributed to the subsequent financial crisis, which has had a large impact on global economy. Each country came up with its own plans to revitalize its economy, and Taiwan is no exception. The Taiwanese government learned from Japan’s experience and recently implemented a consumer voucher program in a bid to stimulate private consumption, which in turn is expected to reinvigorate the economy. Likewise, Hong Kong and other Asian regions are
considering taking a similar course of action.
引發經濟災難的數學公式
二○○八年市場崩解導致全球經濟衰退，各國經濟直至今日仍受到影響。當時 造成市場崩解有諸多原因，其中之一便是數學計算。投資公司設計出極其複雜的 方式運用投資人的金錢，連他們自己都得仰賴深奧難解的公式來評估風險。但是，
我們從三年前慘痛的經驗得知，這些公式，或是所謂的模型，根本不足以反映現 實世界的狀況，有時候甚至可能會產生嚴重誤導。
一般認為風險模型具有參考的價值，投資公司因此仰賴風險模型，從中獲得信 心，把巨額借款拿來槓桿操作。這些模型告訴投資公司，他們下的賭注有多大的 風險，而只要投資哪些標的便可抵消相對應的風險。風險模型潛藏諸多不確定因 素，反而讓投資公司過於自信。
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C5
Consumption Coupons Brings Considerable Business Opportunities
To boost consumption, the government has decided to give out consumption coupons before Chinese New Year. Retailers look forward to grasping this business opportunities; therefore, actively planning various sales promotions. However, the overall economic environment and consumer confidence will determine whether companies can achieve their goals or not.
The subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S had led to financial crisis that affected every country worldwide. Countries, including, Taiwan, took measures to stimulate its economy. To boost domestic consumption and further revive Taiwan’s economy, the government patterned after Japan’s experience and announced that it would distribute consumption coupons. Hong Kong and other regions in Asia were also contemplating on taking similar actions.
經濟危機的解藥
2008 年的金融風暴讓世界經濟陷入危機，至今仍能感受其帶來的影響，而這 場金融危機有很多成因，其中之一就是數學。投資機構發展出複雜的方式來為顧 客投資，並倚賴晦澀難懂的公式來判斷風險。但我們必須記取三年前的慘痛教訓，
這些公式或模型是無法反映出真實世界的情形，有時容易讓人產生誤解。
因為投資機構對於自己的風險模型相當有信心，所以才敢運用大量借來的資 金進行財務槓桿。風險模型能告知投資機構其投資有多大的風險，另外有什麼樣 的投資標的能抵消這些風險。但其實這些模型充滿了不確定性，進而為投資機構 塑造一個安全的假象。
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