foreign reserves able to possess a financial clout over the economy and development, but China also possesses political power that translates into realization of interests. The South China Sea became a part of China’s ‘core’ interests in 2010, a year that may be marked as a leap forward in China’s relative and perceived power. Since then, China has been able to achieve a large military budget that would enable it to extend its muscles beyond its borders; and went east and south to the seas.
The thesis’ main premise was to account for China’s policy in the South China Sea, particularly through the lens of classical realism. It sought to answer the main research questions: ‘Why will China not give up the South China Sea?’, ‘What are the reasons for China’s behavior?’, and ‘What are the potential outcomes of China’s policy?’ Because of our inherently flawed human nature, accumulated power will want us to pursue our interests. As such, the SCS even became China’s core interest and is incorporated into China’s long-term strategy of becoming a global naval force, this is why China will not give in to the pressures of the international community and will seek its own way forward.
The reasons for China’s more ‘assertive’ behavior lie in its accumulation of power. Not only has this enhanced its stance in the anarchic international arena, but it perceives on its own that China has the material capabilities and psychological ability to move forward with its long-term strategy. Power provides the pavement for China’s ‘national rejuvenation’ and the ‘Chinese dream’ vision. As ASEAN and the US urge for a status quo through international law and balance of power, China is revising the regional modus operandi, by erecting artificial islands that would be capable of providing China with the necessary installments and infrastructure to control the first island chain.
The US has had tremendous influence over the Asia-Pacific in the post-Cold War order.
However, two decades following the collapse of the bipolar world order, China has become the second highest economy in the world and is more willing to pursue its interests. The relative powers are progressively shifting. As China accumulates more power, the world has yet another ‘great power’ struggle, presently seen within the South China Sea. One can
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expect higher volatility in the maritime disputes in the SCS in the coming years. Whereas a direct confrontation between China and the US is unlikely, there remains a possibility of lower-level conflict amongst great power allies. Despite this, a highly feasible outcome of China’s policy in the SCS is such that China will become the likely winner in the maritime disputes. What analysts, scholars and politicians might expect alike is a new regional order under the control of China, according to a classical realist interpretation of such a case, as the causal forces are magnetized towards China’s ability to accrue more power to pursue its interests.
The implications of this study suggest that whereas China’s short-term policy has been successful, its long-term policy for celebrating the nation’s might and being regarded as a global force for its centenary in 2049 is yet to be seen and hence remains inconclusive.
Essentially, the findings of the study suggest a mere beginning of the disputes, and as the power buildup around the SCS continues, more studies will need to be conducted. The author’s prediction, based on the analysis and results of this study, is that the key year ought to be 2020, when both Chinese and US forces aspire to ‘collide’, when China seeks to gain more control over the first and second island chains, and the US concludes its ‘pivot’
of re-allocating 60% of military forces into the region, including re-allocating as much as 6 aircraft carriers.
Further research on this topic is necessary as the subject matter is an ongoing process. The objective of this thesis was to view China’s power, strategy and its policy from the classical realist conception of power. The potential outcomes remain to be seen and as such future research is encouraged to observe the influence of China’s land reclamation on its military capability to deter US influence in the sea.
Concerning the limitations of the study, the theoretical application of classical realism becomes evident as human nature, the ‘objective’ basis of classical realist thought, becomes difficult to provide evidence for and thus can only be approached through a subjective, interpretive method utilizing previous studies based on human nature, politics and the social sciences. Following the analysis of classical realism’s limitations within the second chapter, the main problem is whether the notion of human nature can be applied
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historically, as in past, present and future, evolutionarily (evolution of mankind), culturally (applied in various cultures and people), or even psychologically (different pathological tendencies). What is important is to take into account the epistemological and ontological analysis of human nature done by political thinkers and philosophers and seek to construct a compelling argument, albeit the vicissitudes of international relations and political life.
Social sciences, from its nature, would always be based on rather subjective interpretations of reality and hence the only message one could take is to what extent one has been polarized to one side or the other of the political issue at hand.
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