Chapter 5 Case Analysis
5.4 Case 4 – Van Mierlo’s Moralism (1997 – 1998)
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5.3.3 Stability
After the implementation of the policy, Minister Andriessen of the Ministry of Economic Affairs went to China in April 1992, where he signed 65 orders of a total worth of 1.6 billion dollars. The critique would only dwindle after the numbers were shown, but the from this moment on the behavior of both parties was in accordance with each other's expectations and conditions. Therefore we can conclude that a period of 'stability' had returned.
5.4 Case 4 – Van Mierlo’s Moralism (1997 – 1998)
Also for the last case, we have to analyse if the values of the independent variable '(in)stability' and the dependent variable 'Objective of Dutch foreign policy' are the same as anticipated in the hypothesis, to determine whether or not the model fits the data.
5.4.1 Stability
In the period of covering the whole case, from 1997 to 1998, the point of reference that the decision-makers used to make interpretations of the relationship is defined by the agreement "Communiqué of May 16, 1972 concerning relations between the Kingdom of the Netherlands and the People's Republic of China" where both parties agreed to a mutual understanding of the nature of the relationship, together with the joint communiqué of 1 February 1984.
The difference in this case however, is that in April 1992, an 'unwritten' mutual understanding had developed that China would have to at least sustain the intensity of the economic relations, while at the same time the Netherlands would not openly criticize
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China's way of handling domestic affairs. In the period from 1992-1997 both sides of the relationship had congruent interpretations of this agreement.
5.4.2 Instability
In this case, the moment that initiated the period of instability is even more clearcut than the Tiananmen massacre of 1989. It was the moment that the Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs used his chairmanship of the European Union, to criticize the human rights violations in China. This act was instantly denounced by China, based on an argument of intervention in domestic Chinese affairs. Immediately the visit to China of the minister Weijers of Economic Affairs was postponed. The Dutch ambassador was summoned. The visit of vice premier Zhu Rongji was cancelled. So, instantly, a period of stability changed into a period of instability.
The model predicts that when a party has determined the relationship to be 'destabilized' by itself it will proceed to implement policy that is characterized by 'self-restraint', either in the form of 'ontological tolerance', and/or the 'yielding of direct national interest'.
5.4.3 Stabilization
Given the fact that after this moral statement on human rights, the 'ontological tolerance' is represented by the fact that the Netherlands did not mention human rights openly again towards China, the hypothesis that
Hypothesis: The Dutch foreign policy towards China is aimed at stabilizing the relationship when instability occurs, and when the destabilization of the relationship is perceived to be caused by itself, the foreign policy will be based on
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H1: Self-restraint, in the form of ontological tolerance and/or the yielding of national interest, can be confirmed for Case #4.
Chapter 6 Conclusion
In this master thesis the question was asked how the inconsistencies in the international relation between the Netherlands and the People's Republic of China could be explained. After an overview of the literature on Dutch foreign policy, Dutch Chinese foreign policy, and a review of the theoretical discourse of international relations, it was concluded that this question had so far not been answered satisfactorily.
The Balance of Relationship theory was chosen as theoretical model, because the substantialist theories, neorealism, neoliberalism and constructivism are not strong models to explain change and inconsistencies, while the Balance of Relationship is best suited to do this. Based on the theoretical principles of this theory, it was hypothesized that the Dutch foreign policy towards China is aimed at stabilizing the relationship when instability occurs. When the destabilization of the relationship is perceived to be caused by itself, the foreign policy will be based on self-restraint, in the form of ontological tolerance and/or the yielding of national interest. On the other hand, when the destabilization of the relationship is perceived to be caused by the other, it was hypothesized that the foreign policy will be based on symbolic sanctions, in the form of a combination of self-restraint and self-help.
A methodology for the gathering and analysis of the data was provided, to clarify
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form of analysis that was applied in this thesis is a case study analysis, while the data was composed as a descriptive-historical narrative.
There is a tendency in international relations to heed the calls of selection bias.
However convenient, selecting the cases with the a priori knowledge that they will most likely confirm the theory under investigation is not a correct way of conducting research.
Therefore, all four cases of major turbulance in the history of Sino-Dutch relations were taken, regardless of the a priori knowledge of how well the data of each case would fit the model.
The case analyses showed that in every case the hypothesis was confirmed.
Taking into consideration the current state of international relation theory, the true significance in this research lies in the fact that the traditional models of analyses are not able to explain all cases. This is especially true for case #1, where the yielding of national interest by the Netherlands defies the very basis of the characteristics of the international system that realism endorses. The implication of this result is that the Balance of Relationship theory provides a framework for explaining change and inconsistencies in the foreign policy of a nation, and therefore provides a more systematic way to think about the relationships between countries. The result indicates that direct national interest is confined by the stability of relationships. This helps us to better understand the importance of stable relationships for the attainment of long term national interests. The results confirms the theoretical proposition that states apply relational security, thereby reducing the level of anarchy in the international system, in order to secure their national interests in the long run. This realization forces international relation theorists to rethink the traditional assumptions that propose a static character of the international system, and
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it pushes for a perspective on international relations based on dynamism and relationalism. However, there are also methodological weaknesses that can be improved on. The study would gain in strength if the methodological base was more diversified.
The proposition that long term cooperation is rational behavior among states can for example greatly benefit from the application of formal models. Also, it can be argued that relational theory can benefit from a more systematic approach towards the analysis of the relation, instead of only taking the foreign policy choices of one side of the relationship as a starting point. This could be a potential improvement of the model.
After starting off in an international context reminiscent to the anarchy that Hobbes described so eloquently, with detained prisoners and utter distrust that occurred during the Cold War, both parties worked towards balancing their relationship, because this is how rational actors can secure their national interest. The visit of King Willem-Alexander and his speech about civil society epitomized the balance China and the Netherlands have found, and will most likely sustain for the time to come.
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