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兩岸經貿互動與台灣政治版圖:南北區塊差異的推手﹖

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(3) ppj,6j! Ml! fi 1i I!J ft. wrm~J. ,m~~r~~Jwr~mJ~. -=¥ii!i.§{tY. r.~ J. a_ jl~aa ~ fII : I¥i ~UI i)i 3'!JMIt;f1t=.F ?. 3. •• ,.m~~ffi~' r•• tt*J~®. (winners) '~IIJi:B-iID!Wii!i1:l:l r IU* J (losers). 0. ®;fi'J!jft­. •• ,~~r~~~J.r~W~J.m~~~.,.~r •• tt*J~.~,tt tt~ •• M~r •• J.rM.J~~~mo®ft.~m,~.&~n.-~B~M ~r •• J.rm*J~~.~o®ft~~~&r •• J .rm*Jm~.&r.M :fjJJtl J 'PJT*~~ r .&~* J ~?&~~ , 1f}.&:f:tB r .tt$::t: J (economic ag­ ents) ~fJtt!i~!th ' f&!1JOJ;) r:fj IL'iI&~ J (political entrepreneurs) ~ir~i!~Hfi ' @ ~®e •• ~~m~.:f:tB.~'~~PJT~~~~~'~®.~.ir~·.~M· •• m·.~ •••• ~li!th~~o®.irk~' r•• tt*J~~.'R8.& •• · ~. fi® Michael D. Shafer, Winners and Losers: How Sectors Shape the Developmental Prospects ofStates (Ithaca, N. Y.: Cornell University Press, 1994), pp. 22- 48; Helen V. Milner, Resisting Protectionism: Global Industries and the Politics of International Trade (Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1988), pp. 18- 44.. fi@ Shafer, ibid., pp. 1 - 21; Rogowski, ibid., pp. 3 - 20; Bruce E. Moon, Dilemmas of International Trade (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1996), pp. 53-70.. fi® Rogowski, ibid.,; Peter Trubowitz, • Political Conflict and Foreign Policy in the United States: A Geographical Interpretation,' in G. John Ikenberry ed., American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Issues, 3rd. ed (New York: HarperCollins, 1996). pp. 395- 411.. fi® i.tJltjjJ~~ Gourevitch t¥Jft!l1!:,H1T ' ~ Peter Gourevitch, • International Trade. Domestic Coalitions, and Uberty: Comparative Responses to the Crisis of 1873-1896: in Jeffry A. Friden & David A. Lake. eds., International Political Economy; Perspectives on Global Power and Wealth, 2nd. ed (New York: St Martin's, 1991), pp. 281 - 313; idem.• Politics in Hard Times: Comparative Responses to International Economic Crises (Ithaca. N. Y.: Cornell University Press. 1986). pp. 17 - 34. ~ jjJ ~ ~ Robert E. Baldwin, • The Political Economy of Trade Policy: Integrating the Perspectives of Economists and Political Scientists,' in Robert C. Freestra, Gene M. Grossman & Douglas A.. Irwin, eds., The Political Economy of Trade Policy: Papers in Honor ofJagdish Bhagwati (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1996), pp. 147 - 173; Sharyn O'Halloran, Politics, Process, and American Trade Policy <Ann Arbor. Mich.: University of Michigan Press, 1994).. fi® James E. Alt, Jeffry Frieden, Michael J. Gilligan. Dani Rodrik & Ronald Rogowski, • The Political Economy of International Trade: Enduring Puzzles and an Agenda for Inquiry.' Comparative Political Studies. Vol. 29, No. 12 (December 1996). pp. 689-717; Jeffrey A. Frieden & Ronald Rogowski, • The Impact of the International Economy on National Policies: An Analytical Overview,· in Keohane & Milner, eds.• Internationalization and Domestic Politics (Cambridge & New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996), pp. 25- 47; Joanne Gowa, AlJies, Adversaries, and International Trade (Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1994), pp. 3-10; Robert O. Keohane & Helen V. Milner, • Internationalization and Domestic Politics: An Introduction,· in Keohane & Milner. eds.• Internationalization and Domestic Politics (Cambridge & New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996), pp. 3 - 24; Helen V. Milner, • Rationalizing Politics: The Emerging Synthesis of International, American, and Comparative Politics: International Organization, Vo!' 53, No.4 (Autumn 1998). pp. 759-786; John S. Odell & Thomas D. Willett•• Gains from Exchange: An In­ troduction: in Odell & Willett. eds., International Trade Policies: Gains from Exchange between Economics and Political Science <Ann Arbor. Mich.: University of Michigan Press. 1993), pp. 1 - 19; <pxlH'P<p •• fi~H!j.~;I};g , 1ftt~m{iiJ~!?9 • *IIW&lfift ( #~t : Ilti~ • ~m 83 if.) 0.

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(22) .w~.o®a~'.*~~~mffi'~.~~*~~~~ • • ,~~~.~n. ••. *~~§,~~.~tim.r~~ • • J '.ff.~.~§~a~.'N~ROO~*. ~~~~~~,~.*~~~~*.~oR~~~~ • • ~~'~~~~~.*m~ ~ • • JI~ r ij"H!t~~ J. (survey research) '/Jt.m.~f:!I!~. 0. ll(EiI*~w~~m § , ;f5. r iiP:i~*.!'!fi J 91\111 r 3::I:jtft J iI~z -~ · ®flljl~lt~~ m~ r i¥i~t~:W; J 'Wiftt3: • JX~ r 3::I:jtft J mM~ , 1JD/I!l~ r :t±\t7Ht Jar m'*&1tJ ~ J ~fIl~~3::I:jtm~Zr:p , ~tm~Jlfi-JE~~ • ~jJ*.51H#J~ · fiMmJi5~~~ ~~ , JlIJII(E"~m* 13 i* ~ r fiM~t~:W; J 'WiftZfU~1tJ~ • tlofuJ/J"M~¥~ID1dfO ?NfliJ 1tJ~B~.*,~~r.~J' r.5Jl3fta.'SR~~.~~~~a • • o~ ~ r i¥iJi. J ~{tlJ r ~tJi. J 'fllj~NRiJil!~timt!H'f.1I71rt, r:ll!~ J (jihad) r r:p~ ~tJ!f J ~~OO? tlll~flIJ~.**~Jjk~mHff£fuJtE ?®l;f5~ r ~tJJ. J ~mJ r ~JJ. J • fllj 0. 0. 3::.~~rl3~~tJ!fJ~~Zr:p'~~~ftffiH~r3::I:jtm~JZ~'~AR~~n. ? ~.Rfr.iJ~fr.iJr"e , 13 ~tl/JfuJ.ti r ~~trJjm J ,.fjg~fft~lf • • ~~ • • **'~*~~m~r • •~tJ!fJ • • 'B • • ~ffi.~\t'.m ~rM~~.J~m~~~'~~~f:!I!~~~~~~o.*'~.~Amfi • • • ' &\RJ!~~J~mA r~~fi~J a r.~~IJ r:p ffij~~ r~IJ a rW~ftJ ~ ~fj , ttttRf.1E~~~tJ~ffi~ , ~~1~Hik~*.!'!tJ!f.-~~ r fii.~ft J ~~~Jit 1I~filrf~~~5.. 0. 0. 0. -~.m~~,.~riiP:i~J.r~~J~fi~'~R~~.&.~zr*.!'!tJ!f~~J J!ID~W'~ffijr~~~~J91\~Jit~~~fiJ! • • ~&.o.~~,. r*.!'!tJ!f~~J.. RS ti~'~.~W.~ili~m·M_ •••• W~-MOO'~~.ffiU~~•• g~~~~· R® ~.iJ;(:aii.' ~8AWm~UJ~*H1J~-' J!~lftJ:I • •n (-a~t: i'i'UIJt1t., a\ilI92Jf:) &tJ:IlI' /:I:l mtJ:I(~~:~TJt~'a\~wJf:)·~~~ • • • • ~.' • • • •~:.B~. J! '. a\~91. .~iJi'. lI±~ . Jf:) • Ji3-31 ;. iWiJllf • IH-5.. .J!*aoo,. *~eJl 0. rr.Ufr~.W*I!f1J&~U1;M1M: a.~~}t~iI~1t.?. 10 WI (a\ilI91 Jf: 10 ~) 'J{ 8- 24 ; R@). ~.~~, tt*~zilitl'i. ~J!lia\. • Ji r ~ a\ ' lftlJ'iIL '. j. '~.IIUIVf!!o'l:'. l:l/ij~! ?. ' J! r g*ii : iifiiti'!.::'.ji!j. m28 ~m. • iW;:llm ' lli 338- 384· ,Jtft:!It~JUitl,. j. ) '<http://www.ncu.edu.tw/-eng/csa/journalljournaUorum_71.htm>, 3!~~1i~~IiiJ;(:aii. ••• (#~:.. ' • • iilii$.tltW.lllil ( ~it : 10tr • a\ilI91 Jf:) ':R 161-188;. ~ffi&:'~. j. m 8 WI ( ~ilI90 Jf: 10 FJ ~J&n;At'J.1cp , §~~ii\lJ. ,tJ:Illllfll' ~ilI91 Jf: 5 fj 168 ' <http:. II news.chinatimes.com. twIChinatimesl newslistl newslist-content/O,3546,11 0502+11200205160002 1.oo.html> • R~. ~. Masahisa Fujita & Jacques-Francois Thisse, Economics of Agglomeration: Cities, Industrial Location, and Regional Growth (Cambridge & New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002);. Masahisa Fujita, Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions and International Trade (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1999), pp. 239- 261.. lI±@ . l.t~~ ~.Jjjr,,'lffF~¥~J8. *!j.I}ff ' ,.flUI '. 1.1~%,~. a.~IlJ~lIifa:jM"!l!! j. •. • lO!fi WTO IIfft : • •. , WTOJiliilii$lI1!; ( ~~t 'UU'~."Ui.flj. : KFJt1t. '. ;. a\ilI90 Jf:) ; il*if¥z;' r il':l!:I<lt;W. , m 6 ~m 4 WI ( a\ilI90 Jf: 3 fj) 'J!<http://www.. moea.gov.twI-ecobook/season/9003/G-4-4.htm>. R@ . Rm WTO ilIiilUt ( a~t : ~~ , ~ilI89 Jf:). 0. ~~.~~iifiiti'!.~&fi~·~~~ • • M~~~1o~~zOO.·.

(23) ~*. •• ~~.~ ••~~.:~~~.m.~m.?. B. ! 15tm"{t,m~)E(fJil&W:l*fHM QMt~~ra'?fEf$! r ~~f.atM J W r il& W:lf.atMJ~(fJ~.~~!~.8~B.!UOO,m.~ •• o•• !.~r~~~.J ! ~M •• ~)E(fJil&W:l~~!15.~~R.(fJril&W:lfi~J o.~.~N~~ !-~ .r~.~.J~N'~.Bfl~fi~,~~~ril&~ •• J !§.~8m~~o~ . ' r~~~.Jwril&W:l~.J~(fJw.~~'~m~8.~B·®.&.m~· il&Wmffl·.*m••• mQMt~*.m,~~r~*~~J(fJ8.~.'8.~M ~fEl'i'~rJj(fJn=.. ~~~~(fJffi~~.·~-~R~~-~~~NQ. *. *. (J&f'I: : 924' 11121 B '. *. ~.iE. : 924'4116 B ' f;jiffl : 924'41118 B).

(24) Taiwan's Regional Blocs Shu Keng & Lu-huei Chen. Abstract This paper claims that economic interaction across the Taiwan Strait may contribute to the formation of "political blocs" (regions' affiliation with specific political parties) in Taiwan. We argue that northern Taiwan benefits most from cross-strait economic interactions and as a result favors a KMT­ PFP, alliance, especially since the latter supports deregulating trade with and investment in China. For a similar reason, southern Taiwan turns to DPP. In contrast with the north and south, Taiwan's central and eastern region tends to be more neutral in party preference, since they do not benefit as directly from transactions with the Mainland. This paper argues that regional political blocs take shape following regionalized economic interests. Keywords: Cross-Strait Relations; Cross-Strait Economic Interactions; Economic. Geography; Economic Structure; Trade and Investment Policy.

(25) jlIij~*!l!fiBJ\lJ~a.i&7?inNlII. : ~~tll~~Ht(fJm* ?. 25. .~)(.. §*fo '~::EUJ*I (1999)' (~mr:pL'fJm~rMH*,J!I!liiili) '~iITMi' a~t : lim" $:1F (2000)' (#ij~m~~jJ!f~{'Fr",~I~Hiff~) ,~t~: :hA'NtHMiti" ~m~ , ~{8* (2001)' (mJ$i;OA wro¥MalllJ:g~~L'fJOO. : MIIHHJT) 'a~t: r:p¥~jJ!fiiff~~o. fiijJi!;trzsl (1994)'. (~~1l£i&t&). 'a~t: 1fiJ~. 0. ~::EUJ. (1997)' (m~~JlH~: m~IIiI{*,ffi~) 'a~t: 1£r:p g~*#ij (2001)' (mi*IIiI{*,: W*,ffijL'fJ*~i&JfO 'a~t: 1:~ f.6* (1997)' (mJ$~1lIlil{*,zmgYn 'a~t: 'Rf.1j* (2002)' (*~~a!;ammi*~1lIlil{*,) '~fE:::Mi' a ~t : lim ~;7j(1ljJ (2001)' r r mn-i&t& J L'fJM~ ? -allli&:lt~J~I¥-J:tiB~~gu ' 1994 - 2000 J • <t±.f4~*fU) · 2 : 4 • 167-196" im~*I (1999)' (~~[I: r:p~*~ , wrt!; 'alllL'fJ~~fDf4tt) ,~tJ?-:.m¥ W1W;t~ (2002)' (alllWr:p~~1lIlil{*,: iji~~fiiiff~~flJ 12) 'a~t: ijif\';~Mtj 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. iiff~~~.o ~~.. (1997)' (a#ijm~~1lIlil{*,) 'a~t: ~5~ llfHUiii (2003)' (~,*{tTL'fJm~~jJ!fIlil{*,) 'a~t: 1:~ i"J~{UJ ' ~ff~ (1999)' (~~#ij~L'fJf,fi~-m~~1lllilf*,Wfi:fJT) 1J!JlG1:*I (1995)' (m~~1l1i!ItJL'fJIij§W1:~) ,a~t::fc.ft f;tJ1.\!; (2002)' (alii' r:p~. *M:iJ?) 'a~t: #ij€l1ntft" 0. 0. ,~tEf:. a#ij. 0. 0. Alt, James E., et al. (1996), .. The Political Economy of International Trade: Enduring Puzzles and an Agenda for Inquiry," Comparative Political Studies, 29: 12,689-717. Baldwin, Robert E. (1996), .. The Political Economy of Trade Policy: Integrating the Perspectives of Economists and Political Scientists," in Robert C. Freenstra, Gene M. Grossman & Douglas A. Irwin, (edsJ, The Political Economy ofTrade Policy: Papers in Honor ofJagdish Bhagwati, 147-173, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. Barnes, William R. & Larry C. Ledebur (1998), The New Regional Economics: The U.S. Common Market and the Global Economy, Thousand Oaks, Calif.: Sage. Frieden, Jeffrey A. & Ronald Rogowski (1996), .. The Impact of the International Econ- . omyon National Policies: An Analytical Overview," in Keohane & Milner. eds., Internationalization and Domestic Politics, 25-47, Cambridge & New York: Cam­ bridge University Press. Frieden, Jeffrey A. (1991), .. Invested Interests: The Politics of National Economic Policies in a World of Global Finance," International Organization, 45: 4, 425-451..

(26) Frieden, Jeffrey A (1988), "Sectoral Conflicts and the US Foreign Policy," Interna­ tional Organization, 42: 1,59-90. Gourevitch, Peter (1991), "International Trade, Domestic Coalitions, and Liberty: Comparative Responses to the Crisis of 1873-1896," in Jeffry A Friden & David A Lake, (edsJ, International Political Economy: Perspectives on Global Power and Wealth, 2nd. ed., 89-108, New York: St Martin's. Gourevitch, Peter (1986), Politics in Hard Times: Comparative Responses to Inter­ national Economic Crises, Ithaca, N. Y.: Cornell University Press. Gowa, Joanne (1994) ,Allies, Adversaries, and International Trade, Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press. Hsing, You-Tien (1998), Making Capitalism in China: The Taiwan Connection, Oxford & New York: Oxford University Press. Hsueh, Li-Min, Chen-kuo Hsu & Dwight H. Perkins (2001), Industrialization and the State: The Changing Role ofthe Taiwan Government in the Economy, 1945-1998, Cambridge, Mass: Harvard Institute of International Development. Keng, Shu (2002), "Managing the Political Impacts of Economic Integration: 'Exit' and 'Voice' Across the Taiwan Strait," Paper presented a~ the 19th Sino-European Conference on Europe-Asia Cooperation in the New Era, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC, Oct. 22-3, 2002. Keohane, Robert O. & Helen V. Milner (1996), "Internationalization and Domestic Politics: An Introduction," in Keohane & Milner, (eds.> , Internationalization and Domestic Politics, 3-24, Cambridge & New York: Cambridge University Press. Lee, Pei-Shan & Yung-Ming Hsu (2002), "Southern Politics? Regional Trajectories of Party Development in Taiwan," Issues & Studies, 38: 2, 61-84. Leng, Tse-Kang (1995), .. State, Business, an Economic Interaction Across the Taiwan Strait," Issues & Studies, 31: 11,40-58. Leng, Tse-Kang (1996), The Taiwan-China Connection: Democracy and Development across the Taiwan Straits, Boulder, Colo.: Westview. Mahler, Vincent A, David K. Jesuit & Douglas D. Roscoe (1999), .. Exploring the Im­ pact of Trade and Investment on Income Inequality: A Cross-National Sectoral Analysis of the Developed Countries," Comparative Political Studies, 32: 3, 363-395. Milner, Helen V. (1988), Resisting Protectionism: Global Industries and the Politics ofInternational Trade, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Milner, Helen V. (1998), .. Rationalizing Politics: The Emerging Synthesis of Interna­ tional, American, and Comparative Politics," International Organization, 53: 4, 759-786..

(27) ~J$~fllIltJ~il.i&m~1II. : Wi~tm1:!:tiIHfMfJ:f1£-¥?. 27. Moon, Bruce E. (1996), Dilemmas 0/International Trade, Boulder, Colo.: Westview. Odell, John S. & Thomas D. Willett (1993), .. Gains from Exchange: An Introduction, .. in Odell & Willett, (edJ, International Trade Policies: Gains from Exchange be­ tween Economics and Political Science, 1-19, Ann Arbor, Mich.: University ofMi­ chigan Press. Perloff, Harvey S. et al. (1960), Regions, Resources, and &onomic Growth, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press. Rogowski, Ronald (1989), Commerce and Coalitions: How Trade Af/ects Domestic Political Alignments, Princeton, N. J: Princeton University Press. Shafer, D. Michael (1994), Winners and Losers: How Sectors Shape the Developmental Prospects o/States, Ithaca, N. Y.: Cornell University Press. Sharyn O'Halloran (1994), Politics, Process, and American Trade Policy, Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. Trubowitz, Peter (1996), .. Political Conflict and Foreign Policy in the United States: A Geographical Interpretation," in G. John Ikenberry, (edJ, American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Issues, 395-411, New York: HarperCollins. Trubowitz, Peter (1998), Defining the National Interest Conflict and Change in Ameri­ can Foreign Policy, Chicago & London: University of Chicago Press..

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