1. SWMM 限制各子集水區內不同種類 LID 設施的串連,即逕流在 LID 設施之間 無法相互流動,然而實際規劃中各 LID 設施之間可能相互串連。另外 SWMM 之貯留型LID 設施無法模擬供水情形,後續研究可針對 LID 相關模擬進行更深 入的探討。
2. 本研究彙整相關文獻提出之 SWMM 參數做為輸入值,引用之參數可能對評估 結果產生影響,後續可進行相關實驗,以獲取台灣特性之SWMM 參數,合理 模擬社區逕流情形。
3. 本研究將發展氣候調適六步驟之相關工具應用於案例社區中,其中社區供水系 統評估模式為水平衡模式,模式相關參數由信勢社區資料或相關文獻提供,因 此無驗證模式。建議後續研究採用實際社區資料進行調適步驟及工具之應用,
並藉由量測資料進行模式檢定及驗證。
4. 降雨型態對雨水儲集系統極大的影響,需計算連續不降雨日分布,評估是否適 合裝設雨水儲集系統,例如南部地區豐枯水期水量差異懸殊,在枯水期雨水儲 集系統無法發揮作用。應根據不同地區提出區域性的LID 設施組合,建議將本 研究之研究方法應用於南部社區,挑選適用於南部社區之調適選項。
5. 本研究利用歷史資料設計雨水儲集系統的容量,後續研究可利用氣象合成模式 產生的雨量資料,再次評估雨水儲集系統的容量,評估是否需要增加雨水儲集 桶的尺寸或數量。
6. 社區供水系統並非獨立於外界,本研究社區供水系統模式已結合區域水資源模 式,計算農業及家庭可供水量,確實管理水資源。後續研究應建立社區供水系 統和區域水資源系統關係之分析方法,制定資料傳輸之通訊協定,以提供標準 化資料,加快整合區域供水系統與社區供水系統模式。
7. 目前 LID 挑選流程仍僅限於區域性,尚無完整的流程可以普遍應用於各地,然 而對於LID 規劃決策者來說,一個詳細且可行的 LID 挑選流程須具備相關子步 驟之目標、需要執行的項目及所需的資料等,後續相關研究應針對現有之挑選
8. 調適選項之普及率和接受度會影響調適選項的能力範圍值,除此之外,還有成 本和即時性的問題,在評估調適選項價值時,除了考量效用,建議利用多準則 分析,考量成本、即時性、副作用等因素,並給予不同的權重。
9. 本研究選取可量化之調適選項進行評估,然其調適選項能力可能依據應用情況,
而為一範圍值,後續研究可調整量化方式,讓調適路徑圖更符合實際情況。另 外,無法量化之調適選項,須透過定性型分析方法評估,惟其定量與定性之調 適選項如何放在一起比較,是後續需要進一步探討的研究重點。
10. 調適目標年的設定將直接影響後續調適路徑之期程安排,也會影響步驟三進行 未來風險評估時,風險模擬的目標時期,以及步驟四調適選項的選擇,是相當 之影響因子。另外,不同類型的調適目標曲線對挑選調適路徑有決定性的影響,
因此在設定調適目標年和調適目標時,建議召集利害關係人討論調適目標年、
最終調適目標,以及調適目標曲線的變化率。
11. 選擇權定價模式中之波動率代表時間帶來的不確定性,越高的波動率代表未來 調適選項價值變動之可能性大,而本研究將波動率設為日雨量之標準差除平均 值,由日雨量的波動幅度代表未來的不確定性,然而波動率之計算方式對調適 選項的量化結果有很大的影響,考量各調適選項之未來不確定性不盡相同,是 否需設定不同的波動率,後續研究應加以討論。
12. 調適路徑執行計畫需要考量不同領域是否有衝突,例如社區排水系統設計逕流 越快排除越好,但以供水角度而言,則是希望有效控制雨水徑流,延長逕流在 社區的流動時間,以利儲存後使用。最終需要召開相關利害關係人會議,以確 認調適路徑執行計畫是否完善。
13. 供水與排水系統兩者之間關係密切,若後續研究考慮結合供水與排水模擬,須 注意兩者使用不同的氣象資料時間尺度,供水系統為日尺度,而排水系統為小 時尺度,因此需要不同類型的氣象合成模式,如何結合不同時間尺度之模擬,
為後續研究重點之一。
參考文獻
1. Armitage, N., Vice, M., Fisher-Jeffes, L.(2012) South African Guidelines for Sustainable Drainage Systems. Cape Town: Water Research Commission.
2. Barnett, J., Graham, S., Mortreux, C., Fincher, R., Waters, E., & Hurlimann, A.
(2014) A local coastal adaptation pathway. Nature Climate Change, 4(12), 1103–1108. http://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2383.
3. Blacktown City Council (2013), Developer Handbook for Water Sensitive Urban Design.
4. Chao-Hsien Liaw, Yu-Chuan Chiang, 2014a, Framework for Assessing the Rainwater Harvesting Potential of Residential Buildings at a National Level as an Alternative Water Resource for Domestic Water Supply in Taiwan , WATER, 6(10), 3224-3246.
5. Chao-Hsien Liaw, Yu-Chuan Chiang, 2014b, Dimensionless Analysis for Designing Domestic Rainwater Harvesting Systems at the Regional Level in Northern Taiwan, WATER, 6(12), 3913-3933.
6. Charltom and Arnell, 2011, Global Environmental Change, Adapting to Climate Change impacts on water resources in England – An Assessment of draft ester resources management plans.
7. DoD (Department of Defense).(2004) The low impact development manual, UFC-3-210-10.
8. Field C et al. ( 2014 ) Technical summary Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:35-94
9. Greater Dublin Strategic Drainage Study (2005) New Development Policy – Technical Guidance Document.
10. Haasnoot M, Middelkoop H, Offermans A, van Beek E, van Deursen WPA(2012)
Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing
11. Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J.H., Walker, W.E., ter Maat, J.(2013) Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world.
Global Environmental Change, 23, 485-498.
12. Hoff, Marie D.(1998), Sustainable community development - Studies in economic environmental and cultural revitalization, Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton, Boston, London, New York, Washington D.C.
13. Holling, C. S.(1973)Resilience and stability of ecological systems, Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 4:1-23.
14. Huang NE, Shen Z, Long SR, Wu MC, Shih HH, Zheng Q, Yen N-C, Tung CC, Liu HH (1998) The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis. Proc R Soc Lond Ser A: Math Phys and Eng Sci 454:903-995. doi:10.1098/rspa.1998.0193
15. Hua-peng Qin, Zhuo-xi Li, Guangtao Fu(2013), The effects of low impact development on urban flooding under different rainfall characteristics, Journal of Environmental Management 129, 577-585
16. J. L. Ivey and others (2004), Community capacity for adaptation to climate-induced water shortages: linking institutional complexity and local actors
17. Jia, H., Yao, H., Tang, Y., Shaw, L. Y., Zhen, J. X., & Lu, Y. (2013). Development of a multi-criteria index ranking system for urban runoff best management practices
(BMPs) selection. Environmental monitoring and assessment, 185(9), 7915-7933.
18. Jothiprakash, V.; Sathe, M.V. Evaluation of Rainwater Harvesting Methods and Structures Using Analytical Hierarchy Process for a Large Scale Industrial Area. J.
Water Resour. Prot. 2009, 1, 427–438.
19. Kadlec, R.H., and R. L. Knight. (1996) Treatment Wetlands. Lewis Publishers.
U.S.A.
20. Kang, S.; Shi, W.; Zhang, J. An improved water-use efficiency for maize grown under regulated deficit irrigation. Field Crop. Res. 2000, 67, 207–214.
21. Lall U, Sharma A ( 1996 ) A Nearest Neighbor Bootstrap For Resampling Hydrologic Time Series. Water Resour Res 32:679-693. doi:10.1029/95WR02966
22. Lee, J.-m., Hyun, K.-h. & Choi, J.-s. (2013) Analysis of the impact of low impact development on runoff from a new district in Korea. Water Science & Technology, 68, 1315-1321.
23. Lehner, B., P Döll, J Alcamo, T Henrichs, F Kaspar, 2006, “Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in Europe: a continental, integrated analysis.” Climatic Change.
24. Lewis A Rossman(2015)Storm Water Management Model User’s Manual Version 5.1, National Risk Management Research Laboratory Cincinnati, OH.
25. Low Impact Development Best Management Practices Design Guide Edition 1.0
(2011) City of Edmonton. Edmonton, Alberta.
26. Md. Khademul Islam Molla, M. Sayedur Rahman, Akimasa Sumi, and Pabitra Banik
(2006) Empirical mode decomposition analysis of climate changes with special reference to rainfall data, Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, vol. 2006, Article ID 45348, 17 pages. doi:10.1155/DDNS/2006/45348.
27. Mishra, Vimal, Keith A. Cherkauer, Shraddhanand Shukla, 2010, Assessment of Drought due to Historic Climate Variability and Projected Future Climate Change in the Midwestern United States. J. Hydrometeor, 11, 46–68.
28. Moffat AJ, Ellis C, Moss A, Nicoll B, Martin S, Beauchamp K (2014) Scottish Native Woodland Adaptation–the potential use of a Flexible Adaptation Pathways
(FAP) Framework
29. Pickering, N. B., Stedinger, J. R., & Haith, D. A. (1988). Weather input for nonpoint-source pollution models. Journal of irrigation and drainage engineering, 114(4), 674-690.
30. Pittner, C., & Allerton, G.(2009). SUDS for roads. Edinburgh: WSP Development and Transport.
31. Practicum, S. P., Barboza, N., Bedard, M., & Jensen, R. (2006). The Study of Impervious versus Pervious Surfaces, and Low Impact Development (LID)
Designs Within the City of Trinidad.
33. Racsko, P., Szeidl, L. and Semenov, M. (1991)A serial approach to local stochastic weather models. Ecol. Modelling, 57: 27-41.
34. Rajagopalan, B., and U. Lall (1999) A k-nearest-neighbor simulator for daily precipitation and other weather variables, Water Resour. Res., 35(10), 3089–3101, doi:10.1029/1999WR900028.
35. Robertson, R. (1992), Globalization︰Social theory and global culture,Stage, London.
36. Selker J.S., Haith D.A. (1990) Development and Testing of Single-Parameter Precipitation Distributions. Water Resour Res 26:2733-2740.
doi:10.1029/WR026i011p02733
37. Semenov, M. A., & Brooks, R. J. (1999). Spatial interpolation of the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator in Great Britain. Clim Res, 11(2), 137-148.
38. Semenov, M. A., Brooks, R. J., Barrow, E. M., & Richardson, C. W. (1998).
Comparison of the WGEN and LARS-WG stochastic weather generators for diverse climates. Clim Res, 10(2), 95-107.
39. Siebentritt M, Halsey N, Stafford Smith M. ( 2014 ) Regional climate changeadaptation plan for the Eyre Peninsula. Seed Consulting Services, Adelaide.
40. Sim Van der Ryn, Peter Calthorpe. (1986), Sustainable communities: A new design synthesis for cities, suburbs, and towns, Sierra Club Books,San Francisco.
41. Steinschneider S, Brown C (2013) A semiparametric multivariate, multisite weather generator with low-frequency variability for use in climate risk assessments.
Water Resour Res 49:7205-7220. doi:10.1002/wrcr.20528
42. Steinschneider, S., and C. Brown (2013)A semiparametric multivariate, multisite weather generator with low-frequency variability for use in climate risk assessments, Water Resour. Res., 49, 7205–7220, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20528.
43. Takeuchi,K,Namiki,Y, Tanaka,H. (1998). Designing eco-villages for revitalizing Japanese rural areas, Ecological Engineering 11,pp 177–197.
44. Tung, C. P. and D.A. Haith, "Global Warming Effects on New York Streamflows."
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 121(2): 216-225, 1995.
45. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)-Risoe Centre (2011)
Technologies for Climate Change Adaptation-Water Sector, Denmark: UNEP-Riso.
46. VanWoert, N.D., Rowe, D.B., Andresen, J.A., Rugh, C.L., Fernandez, R.T., Xiao, L., 2005. Green roofs stormwater retention: effects of roof surface, slope, and media depth. J. Environ. Qual. 34, 1036–1044.
47. Villarreal, E.L.; Dixon, A. Analysis of a rainwater collection system for domestic water supply in Ringdansen, Norrköping, Sweden. Build. Environ. 2005, 40, 1174–
1184.
48. Warner, K. and van der Geest, K.(2013) Loss and damage from climate change:
local-level evidence from nine vulnerable countries. International Journal of Global Warming, 5, 367-386.
49. Werners, S. E., Pfenninger, S., van Slobbe, E., Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J. H., and Swart, R. J. (2013) Thresholds, tipping and turning points for sustainability under climate change. Current opinion in environmental sustainability, 5(3), 334-340.
50. Wood A(1995)Constructed wetlands in water pollution control: Fundamentals to their understanding. Water Science and Technology, 32(3), 21-29.
51. Woods-Ballard, B., Kellagher, R., Martin, P., Jefferies, C., Bray, R., & Shaffer, P.
(2007). The SUDS manual (Vol. 697): Ciria London.
52. Y.T. Maru, M. Stafford Smith, A. Sparrow, P.F. Pinhoc, O.P. Dube (2014). A linked resilience and vulnerability framework for adaptation pathways in remote disadvantaged communities. Global Environmental Change, 28, pp. 337–350 53. Young, M. D. (1992), Sustainable Investment and Resource Use, Great Britain:
The Parthenon Publishing Group.
54. Z.L.Liao, Y.He, F.Huang, S.Wang and H.Z.li(2013), Analysis on LID for highly urbanized areas' waterlogging control: demonstrated on the example of Caohejing in Shanghai, Water Science & Technology, 68.12.
55. Zhenliang, L., Ying, H., Fei, H., Sheng, W. & Huaizheng, L.(2013) Analysis on LID for highly urbanized areas' waterlogging control: demonstrated on the example of Caohejing in Shanghai.
56. 內政部營建署(2012),建築物雨水貯留利用設計技術規範。
58. 朱志彬(2015),104 年第一期稻作停灌補償作業說明,第 272 期,農政與農 情。
59. 朱容練、朱吟晨、林士堯、劉俊志、陳永明(2015),2014-2015 年乾旱事件 概述,國家災害防救科技中心災害防救電子報第124 期。
60. 何逸峰(2005),現代化灌溉自動測報與控 制系統設施推廣成效,第 155 期,
農政與農情。
61. 吳瑞賢、李明旭、陳世偉(2011),農業區地表水系統之模擬與推估,農業工 程學報,vol.57 No.1:76-91。
62. 吳瑞賢、溫博文、李明旭(2007),農業回歸水回收再利用研究-雲林地區為
73. 倪進誠、林冠慧、張長義(2004),生態社區之理念探究與城鄉新風貌的架構 初擬,環境與世界第十期。
74. 荊樹人(2007),農業產業型態社區污水自然處理之研究,科技部研究計畫。
75. 馬家齊、吳瑞賢(2015),氣候變遷與耕期調整對農業用水管理的影響,台灣 水利。
76. 張文亮(2005),台灣河川水質淨化工法成效之普查,2005 年台灣環境資源 永續發展研討會論文集,p.A01-1。
77. 張珩、刑志航(2004),生態社區理念於社區環境落實之研究─以台南縣鄉村 社區為例,建築與規劃學報,第五卷,第一期,第29-47 頁。
78. 曹榮軒(2017),面對氣候變遷水資源跨領域調適策略與調適路徑評估方法之 建立,臺灣大學生物環境系統工程學研究所博士論文(初稿)。
79. 陳其南、陳瑞樺(1998),社區總體營造,行政院文化建設委員會。
80. 陳亮全、黃瑞茂、張良真(2010),綠色城鄉、永續社區實驗計畫-以宜蘭三 星地區、桃園中聖中泰兩里、馬祖南竿鐵板三社區為例--綠色城鄉、永續社區 實驗計畫總計畫,行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫。
81. 陳衍源(2006),6 年來農田水利工程建設成果與展望,第 174 期,農政與農 情。
82. 陳清田、林羿汝、李振誥(2014),缺水期稻作灌溉管理操作策略之研究,臺 灣水利第62 卷第 2 期,50-58。
83. 游保杉(2000),高屏溪流域區域日降雨-逕流之研究(III)-氣候變遷對高屏
83. 游保杉(2000),高屏溪流域區域日降雨-逕流之研究(III)-氣候變遷對高屏