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表 6-2.智利、烏拉圭氣候政策執行
智利 烏拉圭
溫度限制目標 不足達標 有望達標（2030）
溫室氣體減量目標 有待觀察（2030） 有望達標（2030）
再生能源使用目標 已達標（2007~2014） 已達標（2015）
資料來源：EPI, 2016
實證結果顯示，統計結果基本上證實環境顧志耐曲線(Kuznets Curve)的假說：
貿易開放程度與人均碳排放量之間呈現倒 U 型關係。相關測量列於第参章第五 節以計量經濟學模型檢驗南美洲 11 國在 1995~2013 年的情形。一旦國家跨越初 步開放時期對環境產生的負面影響（統計係數正值），在所得成長到一定程度 後，貿易開放度與人均碳排放量將呈負相關；同時，亦符合本文假設，即隨著 貿易越開放，碳排放量將越低，氣候治理成效將越佳。
隨著貿易開放程度的增加，一方面，開發中國家將透過模仿、學習已開發 國家的生產模式及技術，帶動內部技術革新，而人均所得增加中，國家及個人 將較易提升對於環境品質的要求；另一方面，國際氣候協議亦能帶動國內效果，
透過國際施壓、國內利益團體推動及國內利益平衡，能影響國家行為。
本文將會在以下提供政策建議以及未來可行的研究方向。
第二節、 政策與未來研究建議
由智利、烏拉圭的經驗可觀察到，兩個開發中國家卻有不一樣的氣候治理 結果，差別在於智利氣候治理主軸為國家力量、政府主導，但烏拉圭更強調市 場機制，由國家帶動跨部會、多元整合，結果顯示後者的模式有了較佳成果。
因此，首先建議開發中國家在進行氣候治理時，國家可以更讓位給市場機 制，使得國家在開放貿易環境下有更自由的機制運作。同時，國家應作為良好 執行者，因公權力將為政策初期有效喚起注意、引導國內共同治理的推動者。
整體來說，長期治理成效需仰賴市場力量，誠如本文所述，國家隨著貿易開放 程度的成熟度上升，國內的技術程度將提升、相關法規亦將推動，搭配市場機 制的運作，將能提供氣體有效減量的機制，使溫室氣體排放下降。
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其次，建議未來能將研究範圍（國家及年限）普及。由於本文採個案研究 法，係選取兩國進行 2000~2015 年的深度研究，使實證經驗具有個案研究的內 部效度，但較為缺乏通則性研究的外部效度。在第參章第五節關聯性中，將發 展中國家的南美 11 國納入統計模型，發現符合環境顧志耐曲線的假說，由此預 期開發中國家的情形應能符合此趨勢，亦即貿易開放與氣候治理的關聯符合此 假說以及本文研究結果。另外， 巴黎會議後所有開發中國家的氣候表現將開始 受到拘束，2015 年（巴黎協議）~2020 年（減碳承諾時間）間的政策、計畫等 動態將是後續研究關鍵。因此，將研究範圍普及化，將有助增加外部效度。
最後，總結本文研究乃立基在已開發國家及開發中國家具有共同但區別 的責任。由於氣候變遷已日益嚴重，環境對於汙染及破壞的耐受度已不如從前，
期許先進國家及開發中國家透過經驗及技術的傳承、交流與革新，在自身能力 所及中，推動環境友善的綠能生產，以降低溫室氣體的排放、控制全球均溫的 上升幅度，為了氣候變遷的減緩及調適共同盡一份心力。
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