第五章、 結論
第二節、 未來展望
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第二節、 未來展望
針對後續研究的建議，基於本研究以文獻分析法蒐集有限資料，將 2011-2015 年間 AOSIS 所提出的意見書、立場聲明書、草案及會議中的發言統整歸 納以回答研究問題，其中因蒐集的草案來源需仰賴公約官方網站及公約繳交文 件微型網站的各次會議存檔備份，雖有其他非政府組織的談判進度相關報導及 學者評論，本研究在談判資料的完整性上仍有遺珠之憾。尤其公約對 2014 以前 各次會議的意見書資料庫與 AOSIS 官網對 2015 年前的草案等資訊完整度較 低，僅能依賴學者評論、NGO 報導、及媒體新聞來蒐集各面向的資訊。未來在 資料蒐集上應嘗試更多 AOSIS 成員國政府內資訊或第一手的訪談資訊以完善資 訊來源廣度。
針對氣候談判分析，國際間所有參與角色的重要性與行動都應納入考量，
國際氣候談判指標性協定能正視小島嶼國家對氣候變遷的急迫需求，除了 AOSIS 的談判策略運用外，更要歸功於其他共同致力推動的國家、聯盟、與大 會主席國的談判議程設定。除了與利馬會議主席合作所舉辦的多次部長級會議 能使各國更熟知會議進程外，巴黎會議中，主席國對會議議程與方式的革新更 是舉足輕重。在主席 Laurent Fabius 的主導下，為了避免出現會期末期才加入的 急就章條文來不及審議，而最終沒有共識的情況，各議題以分拆式小組與開放 式草案委員會等方式使締約國全程參與處理談判本文的內容。高度透明協商確 保締約國能充分表達需求，了解談判本文，並共同為此協定的成敗負責。以 外，2014 年時任美國總統歐巴馬於北京亞太經濟合作會議 (Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation, APEC)中會面中國領導人習近平，並發表美國 2025 減緩 目標為其 2005 年水平的 26-28%；中國則設定 2030 為排放峰值，並自此逐年遞 減。學者 Wytze Van Der Gaast 認為排放大國的承諾與參與使各國對此協定更有 信心。未來基於巴黎協定談判時期合作關係多建立在各國部長級官員高度互動 下的情誼，存在現有談判代表卸任後如何維持合作關係的問題；及第三方團體
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上則在 AOSIS 所要求的科學報告發表後應如何界定及納入具法律約束力的協定 中，包含 2018 年 IPCC 1.5°C 特別報告發表後，直接點名 1.5°C 的重要性可能影 響未來法律拘束力等；最後程序上則可延伸探討提出關鍵草案能提升接受度的 時機點問題。
從後京都時期起，歷年 COP 所討論的議題從減緩、調適、資金來源等主要 議題適漸漸擴大至實行細節如透明度，能力建置，科學技術轉移等加速談判進 程的目標。使實踐方向更加明確，小島嶼國家所要求的控溫及減緩氣候變遷惡 化的目標不再遙不可及。AOSIS 近年來也開始發展其在能力建置、TEC、
CTCN 等公約下單位的合作與法規制定等，應是未來研究 AOSIS 談判策略研究 注意的重要議題。尤其在本研究所聚焦的時間軸內，AOSIS 在調適行動議題的 談判場域的表現並不如預期中積極，相較之下，雖然 AOSIS 沒將能力建置與科 技轉移等議題包含在其調適議題的草案規劃中，這些能為調適行動帶來實質幫 助的議題應被納入未來的研究範圍中。
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