綜合前述額外測試,可合理的推論本研究的實證結果具有強韌性,亦即第 35 號公報的公佈實施,確實導致存在資產減損公司的策略性會計報導決策,而 公司策略性的會計報導決策亦影響投資者對盈餘與權益帳面價值的整體資訊攸 關性,而且,自願性提前適用該公報之上市(櫃)公司的盈餘變數之相對資訊攸關 性亦顯著降低。此結果在不同的衡量模式、樣本數、與設定下皆獲得實證的支持。

司之當期盈餘評價攸關性呈現負面反應,而每股權益帳面價值的資訊攸關性則呈 現不明顯的正面反應。

Bell & Bible (1987)曾指出:對於一個新會計原則的實施,公司不會僅簡單地 等待到規範的要求之時點才適用,因為如此一來,它就等同放棄一個可以進行策 略性會計報導的機會。針對彈性選擇新會計原則適用時點所存在的操弄會計報導 可能性,Schipper (1989)與 Gujarathi & Hoskin (1992)皆主張新會計原則的頒佈實 施應該消除公司進行盈餘管理的機會。因為一個新會計原則的實施賦于公司選擇 適用時點的裁量權,導致公司有機會進行策略性的會計報導決策,則會計規範的 預期效果將受到影響。我國第35 號公報允許公司自願性地於 93 會計年度提前適 用,就會計報導的時效性角度,確實有助於提高會計資訊的時效性,然而,此舉 亦等同賦于公司管理當局藉由選擇適用的時點以操弄其會計報導,影響會計資訊 的攸關性。就另一角度而言,政策允許自願性提前適用新會計原則,將導致 93 會計年度提前適用與未提前適用公司的財務報表資訊之比較性下降,甚至無法比 較,在某種形式係增加資訊的不對稱性與會計報導的成本。因此,就政策的目的 而言,允許提前適用新的會計原則的權宜性規範,存在一些無法規避的潛在成 本,是政策制定過程中不容忽視的變數。因此,一個新會計原則是否允許提前適 用,應是相關效益與成本綜合考量後的結果,本研究的實證結果提供主管機關與 決策者一個未來政策制定的思考方向。

最後,必須指出本研究僅探討財務會計準則公報對投資者資訊攸關性的影 響,並未觸及公司自願性提前適用的揭露成本問題,本研究不排除不同的投資者 對公司揭露成本的多寡有不同的解讀,導致對公司的評價產生混淆效果。而且,

本研究係直接採用Ohlson(1995)模式進行實證分析,實證結果同時包括模式的適 切性與第35 號財務會計準則公報的效果,在解釋本研究發現時,模式的適切性 仍為不容忽視的限制。最後,本研究的強制適用第35 號公報樣本僅包括 94 會計 年度第一季認列資產減損的公司,本研究不排除部分公司刻意將其資產減損的認 列延後到94 會計年度的會計報表揭露時,才加以認列。

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實質選擇權於分紅保單購買決策之應用

The Application of Real Options on Procurement Decision of Participating Policies

許可達

朝陽科技大學保險金融系助理教授 謝添勇

朝陽科技大學財務金融研究所碩士 陳秀綾

朝陽科技大學財務金融系副教授 柯俊禎

朝陽科技大學財金系講師 黃祥穎

朝陽科技大學財金系講師

摘 要

分紅保單與不分紅保單在市場上為投資型保單之外的兩大分野,目前推出分 紅保單的業者較少,以目前經濟環境而言,是否有如業者所言,在利率上揚、景 氣復甦之際,分紅保單將優於不分紅保單?或是直接選擇不分紅保單享受較低廉 的保費較佳?本文以實質選擇權評價法做為評價工具,評估業界四家公司分紅保 單與不分紅保單,比較兩種保單保費差異是否能由分紅機制獲得平衡?並探討影 響紅利多寡的因素及其變化。研究結果有三點:(一)以傳統財務評價模式評估分 紅保單與不分紅保單時,得知分紅保單優於不分紅保單,但仍不足以構成購買的 誘因,因其NPV 值為負值,但在加入紅利折現之考量後,分紅保單仍較不分紅 保單有利於退休養老的規劃。(二)以二項式選擇權估價法評估各家保單未來可能 之紅利時,四家公司的紅利與選擇權價值皆非常接近,在政府對壽險業逐步放寬 投資限制後,有助於壽險業資產配置與操作,提高投資報酬率,也有利於經營績 效較佳的業者對保單紅利之分配。(三)保單紅利的多寡,與分紅利率及無風險利 率呈正向關係,而其選擇權的價值與報酬率的波動性無關,因此,選擇向經營穩 健、獲利持續成長的壽險公司購買較有利,因為保單紅利分配的多寡,端看壽險 公司的經營績效而定。

關鍵字: 分紅保單、實質選擇權、購買決策

壹、緒論

In document ~CbbP`BkWpR —H49a Bank Provisioning, Business Cycle and Regulation -A Study of 49 countries (Page 88-96)