Chapter VI: Conclusion
6.1 Findings …
國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
102
Chapter VI
Conclusion
6.1 Findings
From this research we extrapolate out that under the Rebalancing of Asia policy, the U.S. has not only tended to enhance its military ability and increase its own power to constrain, but also through the expansion of joint military cooperation, increased its allies’ co-fighting ability, reassure its security commitment and try to stabilize the region and avoid any escalations of conflicts and/or potential wars. In addition, through reassuring its commitment to its allies in the Asia-Pacific region, the U.S. can gain more support and decrease the influence of China.
From the diplomatic aspect, despite sending high-ranking officers to visit countries in the region to deepen the bilateral relations, the U.S. also actively participated in various mutual organizations in the Asia-Pacific region and get involved in regional multiple mechanisms in order to have more cooperation opportunities with various countries. Economically speaking, the U.S. continued to promote the TPP in order to avoid countries in South East Asia having to rely on the RCEP too much. Additionally, in order to speed up economic recovery domestically, the U.S. focused on signing regional, bilateral and multiple FTA’s and open up the market for its featured products.
The U.S. through mutual diplomacy relations, economic and trade cooperation and cultural exchange enhanced its status in the region to maintain its national interests.
Since the 2004 APEC meetings, high-level representatives from China and the U.S.
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
103
meet annually and discuss security and economic issues from bilateral, regional and global perspectives. However, among the commitments made through the bilateral talks, it seems like both sides have only managed to touch upon soft issues such as climate change, anti-terrorism or enhancing mutual trust. Militarily speaking, by emphasizing the idea of "New Concept of Security” and implementing the “Anti-Access/Area-Denial” (AD/AD) and the “The East China Sea ADIZ,” China hopes to lower the U.S.’ influence in The Asia-Pacific region.
In response to the U.S.’ Rebalance to Asia Policy, besides sovereignty issues which are difficult to compromise on, regarding other issues China chose to have a peaceful dialogue while ramping of its military presence at the same time. However, on the dispute in the East China Sea, the U.S. announced that the Senkaku Islands are covered by the Article 5 of the Japan-U.S. security pact, which authorizes the U.S. to protect Japan in the event of an armed attack in the territories under the administration of Japan.
Hence China further declared an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea and increased the risks of a military clash. Additionally, the South China Sea dispute also has become both a military and international issue. Efforts to manage and contain tensions in the South China Sea are involving players beyond the territorial claimants— including China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei.
As for economic aspect, there are 7 countries that are both members of TPP and RCEP. After five years of talks, the TPP negotiators reached a deal on October 5, 2015 which is ahead of the process of the RCEP negotiations, hence China will focus on speed up the process of RCEP negotiations in order to maintain its competiveness.
On the diplomatic aspect, the former President Hu Jintao proposed to develop a new type of great power relations which can be mutually beneficial and through cooperation
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
104
is a win-win situation.
For Taiwan, The Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) guides U.S. policy in making available to Taiwan, defense articles and defense services for its “self-defense.”
Militarily speaking, there is much room for Taiwan to make adjustments under the U.S.’
Rebalance to Asia Policy. For the most part, Taiwan is only able the follow the arms sale policies agreed upon with the U.S. to enhance its defense capabilities. On December 16, 2015, the U.S. government announced that it will sell about $1.83 billion worth of military equipment to Taiwan, which is the first new sale of military hardware in more than four years. As far as the aspect of diplomacy is concerned, since Taiwan is not a member of the United Nations, China has a big influence on restraining Taiwan’s international presence. Taiwan may have to maintain stable and friendly Cross-Straits relations in order to have any opportunity to breakthrough improve its status internationally. Economically, Taiwan relies heavily on exports, additionally, as global economies continue to fluctuate, it is more important that Taiwan can continue to use China to stabilize and even boost its GDP and also actively join Regional economic cooperation efforts such as the TPP and the RCEP.
In addition, diplomatically, being between the two super powers, it is very important for Taiwan to show its value. When the U.S. and China are competing with each other, they will both try to attract states to stand on their side. For Taiwan’s interests, its best to maintain mutual relationships with various countries, including the U.S., China and Japan to balance the competition and cooperation between the U.S. and China.
Currently the Sino-U.S. relations is more of a competitive relationship rather than one of cooperation as both countries engagement policies show that the U.S. and China still distrust each other. The U.S. supports Taiwan and China to ease Cross-Strait
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
105
tensions and welcome more inter-exchange and dialogue. However, the U.S. would not be happy to see Taiwan and China to have further strategic cooperation and change the current situation. In the future, we can expect that Taiwan will end up like most countries is Southeast Asia as having to balance themselves between the two super powers with not a lot of room to maneuver. In addition, since Taiwan and China have had more consensus on less sensitive issues, it seems like the two sides of the Cross-Straits will continue to have more progress economically, and further financial cooperation, cultural and educational exchange.
Generally speaking, the Obama administration will focus on fulfilling its Rebalance to Asia policy, including to support FTA’s, combating global terrorism and deepening cooperative efforts with its allies in the Asia Pacific region. In addition, the U.S. will still try to play an important role in regional affairs, not only on economic issues, but also on security issues as well. Through the Rebalance to Asia policy, by connecting South East Asian countries, the U.S. continues to adjust its strategic deployment in order to expand its influence in the region and secure its national interests.
As the impact to the Cross-Strait relations under the U.S. Rebalance to Asia policy, the U.S. has given both China and Taiwan strategic reassurances. For China, in a meeting regarding the Taiwan issue, with Xi Jinping at the White House in September 2015, President Obama reaffirmed the One-China policy based on the Three Joint Communiqués and the Taiwan Relations Act. For Taiwan, the Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs Susan Thornton, has referred to Taiwan as a vital partner for the United States in Asia. In addition, President Obama recognized Taiwan’s efforts in the global fight against terrorism by addressing Taiwan as a member of a global coalition to counter the Islamic State. During his speech at
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
106
the East Asia summit in Kuala Lumpur, he also named Australia, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore and South Korea as partners in the US’ anti-terrorism efforts. However he did not mention China, which implied that the U.S.
doesn’t see China as its ally on this matter.
The impact on diplomacy the U.S. Rebalance to Asia policy has had on Cross-Strait has been beneficial and has fostered more peace and stability in the region. For example, based on the East China Sea Peace Initiative, Taiwan signed a fisheries agreement with Japan in 2013 and successfully resolved the East China Sea fishing dispute. Based on the success of East China Sea Peace Initiative, on May 26, 2015 Taiwan further proposed the South China Sea Peace Initiative and signed a maritime law enforcement cooperation agreement with the Philippines on November 5, 2015.
Both agreements have helped ease the fisheries disputes in the region, particularly in the overlapping areas of exclusive economic zones. The East China Sea and South China Sea Peace Initiatives have created a vision of "Peace in the Three Seas" that extends from the Taiwan Strait to the East China Sea and from there, into the South China Sea.
The U.S. Rebalance to Asia policy has impacted the economies and trade of countries in the region, Taiwan has signed two FTAs with Singapore and New Zealand.
However, China still has reservations in letting Taiwan expand and sign more FTA’s with other countries. In the future, joining the RCEP and the TPP is a must-do for Taiwan but will be an extremely difficult task to achieve for Taiwan because China will try to block Taiwan from joining any regional economic cooperation organizations, especially ones without its presence.
Security in the region has also been influenced under the U.S. Rebalance to Asia
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
107
policy. Before China and Taiwan would ever reach official agreements regarding to political and national security issues, the increase of China’s military that directly threatens Taiwan’s security has to be countered. Under the Rebalance to Asia policy, the U.S. particularly has to assist Taiwan in defending itself by for example, continuing to carry on with arms sales to Taiwan. By strengthening the self-defense capabilities of Taiwan, it will increase Taiwan’s confidence for cross-Strait exchanges, and ensure cross-Strait peace and stability; furthermore, it will help Taiwan to have a more equal footing to negotiate with China on. Hence, Taiwan should look at Sino-U.S. relations and the positive development of Cross-Strait Relation as a balance of power which in turn, reduces security threats from China.