美國再平衡政策對兩岸關係的影響 - 政大學術集成

全文

(1)國立政治大學亞太研究英語碩士學位學程 International Master’s Program in Asia-Pacific Studies College of Social Sciences National Chengchi University. 碩士論文治政大. 立 Master’s Thesis. ‧ 國. 學 ‧. 美國再平衡政策對兩岸關係的影響. Nat. Cross- Strait Relations. n. al. er. io. sit. y. The Impact of the U.S. Rebalancing Asia Policy on the. Ch. engchi. i n U. Student: ShuHui Ke Advisor: Dr. Ming Lee. 中華民國 105 年 1 月 January 2016. v.

(2) 論文題目 Thesis Topic. 研究生：柯淑惠. Student: ShuHui Ke. 指導教授：李明. Advisor: Dr. Ming Lee. 國立政治大學治. 政. 大. 碩士論文. 學. ‧ 國. 立亞太研究英語碩士學位學程 ‧ er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. A Thesis. n. v i n C hMaster’s Program Submitted to International e n g c h i U in Asia-Pacific Studies National Chengchi University In partial fulfillment of the Requirement For the degree of Master in Taiwan Studies. 中華民國 105 年 1 月 January 2016.

(3) Acknowledgements. Many thanks to Dr. Ming Lee to granting me the privilege of becoming my thesis advisor even though being the Dean of the College of International Affairs takes up a lot of his valuable time. Also, I’m very honored that two prestigious professors in the Cross-Strait relations field, Dr. Edward I-hsin Chen and Dr. Fu-Kuo Liu, were able to be my committee members. This thesis would not have been completed without their. 政治大 supportive and my beloved 立husband Joel Wright for being extremely patient in kind and precise suggestions.. In addition, I want to thank my parents for always being. ‧ 國. 學. proofreading and suggesting corrections in this thesis, and encouraging and accompanying me when I was upset facing stress from work and school.. ‧. only my soul mate and my best friend, he also makes me a better person.. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i. i n U. v. He is not.

(4) Abstract The Rebalance to Asia Policy shows the attention the U.S. gives to Asia Pacific region.. In this research, I firstly introduced background information of this strategy,. and analyzed policy content and purposes from the aspects of economy, diplomacy and military.. After the 911 incident, there were signs of genuine cooperatives efforts. between China and the U.S, an example being the collaboration between the two countries in anti-terrorism.. However, with the increasing power of China, the U.S.. 政治大 actively tried to reduce U.S.’ influence in the Asia Pacific region. Additionally, the U.S. 立 has also felt it necessary to constrain China at the same time. China in turn, has also. expects Taiwan to play a role in constraining China’s rise with could be counter-. ‧ 國. 學. productive and risky as China is integral to Taiwan’s economy. Being between the two. ‧. super powers, Taiwan has had to make maneuvers to show its value to both sides. In. sit. y. Nat. order to maximize Taiwan’s interests, Taiwan should maintain good interactions with. io. er. the U.S. and China and deepen trade and economic relations with Asia Pacific countries. Further research will also discuss China and Taiwan’s response economically,. al. n. v i n C h the Rebalance U militarily under to Asia engchi. diplomatically and. policy its impact, and. potential future developments of Cross-Strait relations.. Keywords: Pivot to Asia, Rebalance to Asia, Cross-Strait Relations. ii.

(5) 摘要. 「再平衡」政策顯示美國對亞太地區的關注。本文首先介紹歐巴馬政府「亞太再平衡」戰略的背景，並以經濟、外交、軍事等層面分析其戰略內涵及目標。 911 事件後中美增加在反恐事務上的合作，然而隨著中國國力的增強，美國對中國進行圍堵的外交策略。中國亦積極削弱美國在亞太地區的影響力。美國期許臺灣在「再平衡」政策下扮演牽制中國崛起的角色，然而臺灣在二強之下，應致力於維持良好之美臺、中臺互動關係，並加深與亞太各國的經貿合作，以使臺灣之. 政治大. 利益最大化。本文進一步探討在美國「再平衡政策」下，中國大陸、臺灣在經濟、. 立. 外交、軍事方面的回應及對兩岸關係造成的衝擊及影響，並進一步就目前的美、. ‧ 國. 學. 中、臺關係預測未來兩岸情勢可能的發展及走向。. ‧. 關鍵字：重返亞洲策略、再平衡、兩岸關係. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. iii. i n U. v.

(6) TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter I: Introduction…………………………………………………………….....1 1.1 Research Background…………………………………………………...…1 1.2 Research Approach……………………………….…………………………. 3 1.3 Research Methodology……………………………………………….……5 1.3.1 Historical Research……….…………………………………………6 1.3.2 Content Analysis ……………………………………………………6 1.3.3 Comparative Research………………………………………………6 1.4 Research Purpose……………………………………………………….…… 7 1.5 Literature Review……………………….…………………………………..8 1.5.1 The Rise of China…………...……………………………………….8 1.5.2 Balance of Power……………………………………...……………12 1.5.3 Power Transition……………...……………………………………14 1.5.4 Informal Alliance Politics……………………………………….….16 1.6 Research Scope and Limitations………………………………………….. 19. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. ‧. 1.6.1 Research Scope…………………………...…………………………19 1.6.2 Research Limitation……………………………………………….. 20 1.7 Chapter arrangement…………………………..…………………………….21. sit. y. Nat. io. al. er. Chapter II: The U.S Rebalance to Asia Policy……………………………...……... 24. n. 2.1 From the Aspect of Military ……………………………...……………...... 26 2.2 From the Aspect of Economy…..………………………………………….. 35 2.3 From the Aspect of Diplomacy…………………………………………….. 41 2.4 Summary………..……………………..…….……………………………... 46 Chapter III: Competition and Cooperation between the U.S. and the PRC under the. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. Rebalance to Asia Policy…………………………………………..... 48. 3.1 From the Aspect of National Security..……………………………......…..49 3.2 From the Aspect of Economy………………..…………………………….. 56 3.2.1 The Greater Mekong Sub-region Economic Cooperation Program (GMS) …….………………………………….……………….…… 56 3.2.2 Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) …..... 58 3.3 From the Aspect of Diplomacy…………………………………………. 60 3.3.1 New Model for Relations between Great Powers.…………..….. 60 3.3.2 East China Sea and South China Sea Issues…………………….. 62 iv.

(7) Chapter IV: The Benefits to Taiwan and Taiwan’s Response to the U.S. Rebalance to Asia Policy………………………………………………………….. 67. 4.1 From the Aspect of National Security...………………………………..…. 68 4.1.1 East China Sea and South China Sea Issues……………………..... 68 4.1.2 U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan...……….……………………………... 71 4.2 From the Aspect of Economy…………………………………………….. 73 4.2.1 TPP………………………………………………………..……… 73 4.2.2 RCEP………………………………………………………..…..... 74 4.2.3 Summary……………………………………………..………… 75 4.3 From the Aspect of Diplomacy……………………………………..……77 4.3.1 4.3.2 4.3.3 4.3.4. Taiwan- U.S. Relations………………………………...……..... 77 Taiwan- China Relations………………………...……..………..79 Taiwan- Japan Relations……………………………..…………..80. 政治大 Summary…………………..……..……………………………........82 立 Chapter V: Potential Development of Cross-Strait Relations under the U.S. Rebalance. ‧ 國. 學. to Asia Policy…………………………………………………………84. ‧. 5.1 The Historical Progression of Cross-Strait Relations…………………….... 84 5.2 Taiwan’s Cross-Strait Policy under President Ma Ying-jeou………..…...... 86 5.2.1 President Ma Ying-jeou’s Cross-Strait Policy……………....…….. 86. y. Nat. sit. n. al. er. io. 5.2.2 The Sun-Flower Movement………………………………………… 89 5.2.3 Ma-Xi Summit………………….…………………………………... 92 5.3 The Influence to Cross-Strait Relations and the Potential Developments in the Future….…..……………………………………………………………..... 96. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. Chapter VI: Conclusion…………..………………………………………………. 102 6.1 Findings ….…………………………………………………………….... 102 6.2 Suggestions.………………………………………………………………..107 Bibliography……………………………………………………………………...110. v.

(8) List of Figures Figure 1.1: Research Approach……………………………………………………...5 Figure 3.1: Area of The Greater Mekong Sub-region Economic Cooperation Program…………………………………………………………….....57 Figure 3.2: Location of Senkaku Islands…………………………………………... 63. List of Tables Table1.1 Military Expenditure in US Dollars……………………….………….……2 Table1.2 Categories of State in Neoclassical Realism……………………………... 13. 政治大 Table2.2 U.S. Trade in Goods with China………………………………………....... 35 立. Table2.1 TIV of Arms Exports from United States, 2008-2012…………………….32. Table2.3 Schedule of TPP Negotiations……………………………………………. 39. ‧ 國. 學 List of Acronyms. ‧. Anti-Access/Area Denial. ADIZ. Air Defense Identification Zone. AFPs. ASEAN Free Trade Partners. AIT. American Institute in Taiwan. APEC. Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. ARATS. Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits. ASEAN. Association of Southeast Asian Nations. BCA. Budget Control Act. CBMs. Confidence-building mechanisms. CSSTA. Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement. DPP. Democratic Progressive Party. ECFA. Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement. ECS ADIZ. East China Sea ADIZ. n. Ch. engchi. vi. sit er. io. al. y. Nat. A2/AD. i n U. v.

(9) EETO. European Economic and Trade Office. EEZ. Exclusive Economic Zone. EU. European Union. FTAs. Free Trade Agreements. GMS. Greater Mekong Sub-region Economic Cooperation Program. IAJ. Interchange Association, Japan. IGOs. International governmental organizations. ITLOS. International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea. ISIL. Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. NGO. Non-Governmental Organizations. 學. ‧ 國. NAFTA. 政治大 North America Free Trade Agreement 立 Notices to Airmen. NUC. National Unification Council. PRC. People's Republic of China. RCEP. Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. ROC. Republic of China. S&ED. Strategic and Economic Dialogue. SEF. Straits Exchange Foundation. SIPRI. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. SME’s. Small-and-medium sized enterprises. SOE. State-owned enterprises. SSD. Strategic Security Dialogue. TNC. Trade Negotiation Committee. TPP. Trans-Pacific Partnership. TPSEP. Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement. TRA. Taiwan Relations Act. ‧. NOTAMs. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. vii. i n U. v.

(10) UN. United Nations. UNCLOS. United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. VWP. Visa Waiver Program. WMD. Weapons of mass destruction. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. viii. i n U. v.

(11) Chapter I Introduction 1.1 Research Background The region of Asia pacific in 21st century has become a dynamic and energetic economic body as China continues to expand its influence.. In fact, without. 政治大 government may not reach立 its goals of increasing exports and job opportunities.. maintaining its economic ties with various countries in the region, the Obama. ‧ 國. 學. With high economic growth, China has become the super power of the region; it. y. China as one of the vast growing developing countries and. sit. Nat. the international society.. ‧. also brings questions about whether China’s rise will threaten the stability and peace of. io. al. n. power in 21st century.. er. a member of the UN Security Council, is consequently being treated as a potential super. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. China announced its amendment of the East China Sea ADIZ on November 23rd 2013 for strategic purpose.. At the same time, China also incorporated the Anti-. Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) system, which may directly affect the flexibility of movement for the U.S. in East Asia.1. In addition, the GDP of China in 2010 exceeded. Japan and became the second largest in the world, its military expenditure had reached 188,460 US dollars in 2013, an increased of 68% from 111,785 US dollars in 2009(See Table 1.1).2 1. 2. The expansion of its economic and military power has caused tension in. United State Department of Defense, “Quadrennial Defense Review,” 2012. Retrieved 10 January 2016, from http://qdr.mnd.gov.tw/chap1.html Stockholm International Peace Research Institute 2015, “SIPRI Military Expenditure Database.” 1.

(12) the region, moreover, it also increases the risk for the U.S. to be more involved Regional Affairs and solidify its credibility of security commitments to its allies.. The U.S.. government hence has diverted its strategic focus from Europe, Middle East back to East Asia. Table1.1 Military Expenditure in US Dollars. 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000. 立. 300000. Nat. y. ‧. io. n. al. sit. Source: Made by author. er. 0. China, P. R. Taiwan. ‧ 國. 100000. USA. 學. 200000. 政治大. i n U. v. There is no doubt that the U.S. still has its leading position in the Asia-Pacific region.. Ch. engchi. In recent years the U.S. implemented its Rebalance to Asia Policy, which was. expected to maintain its national interest and consolidate its status in the region by building mutual connections with various countries actively and enhance diplomatic, military and trade relations between them.. Meanwhile, with the economic and. security cooperation as a mechanism with its allies, this would also assure their mutual interests won’t be threatened by any single country, especially China, and keep the region secure and stable.. Retrieved 10 January 2016, from http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/milex_database 2.

(13) Many people suspect the only purpose of the Rebalance to Asia Policy is to compress China’s rise, however, a lot of evidence has shown the rise of China is unstoppable. The relations between China and the U.S. is not a zero-sum game.. The. United States must recognize that every country in the region wants a better relationship with China as well as the United States.. Instead of supporting one strong country. against another, maintaining stable relationships with related countries or involving them into a cooperation framework could maximize national interest for those countries in Asia pacific region.. David L. Shambaugh points out that “no Asian states wish to. Asia is believed to be 政治大 big enough for both powers to exercise their influence and power.” The U.S. and 立. see the American presence and their role in Asia diminished.. China find themselves on the same side as many of the key issues affecting the future. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. of Asia.3. However, with U.S.’ Rebalance to Asia. sit. Nat. important position in international affairs.. y. China’s economic growth and military expansion certainly obtained a more. n. al. er. io. Policy, China’s intention to be a super power may be challenged.. i n U. So far there is not a. v. lot of research that discusses how the Rebalance to Asia Policy would affect Cross-. Ch. engchi. Strait relations, therefore this thesis will be more focused on this aspect.. 1.2 Research Approach From the point of realism, international relations is part of any powerful countries’ politics, whether there is conflict or peace, it is all lead by the interactions between powerful countries.. In addition, the great powers also make their policies based on. geopolitical considerations in order to gain power, safety and a more beneficial status.. 3. David L. Shambaugh, Power Shift: China and Asia's New Dynamics (California: University of California Press, 2005), pp. 41-42. 3.

(14) Therefore strategic options are the key factor for changes in the international system. Powerful countries play the most important role in the international system, but with a bigger influence, they also need to take a corresponding responsibility.. In this. research I would like to use the idea of realism and the political system theory to discuss the competition and cooperation between the U.S. and china, and how the Rebalance to Asia Policy may affect Cross-Strait relations.. The political system theory was raised by David Easton, the basic model is to assume within a certain period and space, the input and output in the system will have interaction.. 政治大. The so-called input means the demands and supports in the political. 立. system, in contrast, the output means the specific policy made by the government.. ‧ 國. 學. The process starts with the inputs into the government, then internal feedback convert to the outputs and once again the government will listen to external feedback and form. ‧. new policies.. So there will be a circle return again to the inputs of demands and. y. Nat. io. sit. supports. Whether the system can continue to sustain and develop depends on the. n. al. er. feedback function is complete or not.. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. In the international relations field, the political system theory is widely used as a research approach to analyze the international political framework.. In this research I. will use the Rebalance to Asia Policy as an input as the influence and impact to CrossStrait relations as output, and study the connection between them.. 4.

(15) 政治大. 立. ‧ 國. 學 ‧. Figure 1.1: Research Approach Source: Made by author. sit. y. Nat. io. n. al. er. 1.3 Research Methodology. i n U. v. In order to understand the background of Sino-U.S. relations we need to look at the. Ch. engchi. history between the two countries to analyze the current situation and apply the aforementioned theories.. Therefore, this research will use related official speeches/. interviews, news releases and other secondary data such as news and journals as the foundation to analyze three aspects of economy, diplomacy and national defense under the Rebalance to Asia Policy.. In addition, social sciences theories can’t be proven by getting data from experiments alone, and calls for qualitative research.. By logically analyzing the. causes and outcomes from a series of events, we will get the real nature of reality and 5.

(16) furthermore to form a framework of a theory. In this research I will use three methodology as below:. 1.3.1 Historical Research. Historical research is one of the research methods to analyze events that had happened in the past.. After gathering all the information I can analyze the original. idea of the Rebalance to Asia Policy, and the outcomes of this policy and gain a fuller picture.. In this research, the “Rebalance to Asia Policy” is still an ongoing topic.. 政治大 understand how it started, 立 and perhaps predict which direction it may go in the future. However, I can analyze it from the standpoint of looking at the timeline of events and. ‧ 國. 學. under the current situation in the world today.. ‧. 1.3.2 Content Analysis. y. Nat. n. al. In this research, texts can be defined broadly as books,. er. io. or concepts within the texts.. sit. Content analysis is a research tool used to determine the presence of certain words. i n U. v. essays, interviews, public speeches, newspapers and historical documents.. Ch. engchi. Under the. Rebalance to Asia Policy, I can identify the intentions, focuses or communication trends of the country. Furthermore content analysis can also be used to describe attitudinal and behavioral responses of a state.. 1.3.3 Comparative Research. Comparative research can be used to identify and analyze similarities and differences across nations.. In this study, I can use comparative research as a tool for. developing a better understanding of the U.S., China and Taiwan’s responses toward the Rebalance to Asia Policy, furthermore, through comparing the responses from 6.

(17) those these three countries and we can have a better understanding of the similarities and differences among the three states’ national interests and the attempts at policy making that is in each states best interest.. 1.4 Research Purpose Since World War II, the U.S. has dominated the world.. However, with the. enhancement of its economic, diplomatic and military power, China nowadays has enough power to affect the status and influence of U.S.. Based on the idea of the. 政治大 dominant status through 立 cooperation with its allies to ensure the stability of the. power transition theory, the status quo country, the U.S. will try to maintain its. ‧ 國. However, the competition between countries pursuing power. 學. international order.. normally bring conflicts.. Between the competition of China and the U.S., Taiwan. ‧. also plays an important role not only because of its economic power in the East Asia. sit. y. Nat. region, but also because it is located at the center of the first island chain, which is a. n. al. er. io. crucial geographic location. So far, there is only research available discussing the. i n U. v. Rebalance to Asia Policy and its impact on China, therefore, this study will use the. Ch. engchi. theory of balance of power and power transition of neo-realism to dig out potential impacts on Cross-Strait relations under the Rebalance to Asia Policy.. The purposes of research are as follows:. 1) To analyze the U.S. Rebalance to Asia Policy through military, economy and diplomacy.. 2) To understand the competition and cooperation between the U.S. and the PRC under the U.S. Rebalance to Asia Policy through national security, economy and 7.

(18) diplomacy.. 3) To understand the benefits to Taiwan and Taiwan’s response to the U.S. Rebalance to Asia Policy through national security, economy and diplomacy.. 4) To understand the potential development of Cross-Strait relations under U.S. Rebalance to Asia Policy.. 1.5 Literature Review 1.5.1 The Rise of China. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. At the end of cold war, China had been carrying out revolution and an open policy for over a decade. As its economic and military power was significantly improving,. ‧. China had been seen more and more as a potential threat that would replace the Soviet In addition, with its expanding power, China became the most influential state. io. in the East Asia region.. al. er. sit. y. Nat. Union.. n. v i n C hwas mentioned for U The idea of the rise of China the first time in 1992 in a Policy engchi. Review by Ross H. Munro in an article titled “Awakening Dragon: The Real Dragon in Asia is From China.”. Munro discusses how China turned to expansionism and. challenged America’s national interests and the China Threat Theory.. John Mearsheimer is an advocate of the China Threat theory.. In the book of “The. Tragedy of Great Power Politics,” Measheimer states that hegemony is the goal of power pursuing.4. 4. Measheimer also believed that the U.S. has been maintaining its. John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York & London: W.W. Norton & Company, 2001), pp. 29-54. 8.

(19) position as a global hegemony by playing the role of the Offshore Balancer.. However,. the goal of the rise China is not to maintain the current status, but to move toward to regional hegemony based on its own national interests and political power in Asia. Therefore, conflict between the U.S. and China is unavoidable.. In addition, China is. potentially more dangerous than any other potential hegemony the U.S. may encounter in the 21st century.5. Mearsheimer also mentioned that there are two methods for the. U.S. to deal with the rise of China, which are Power Balancing and Buck-Passing.. If. there are other states in the region played a role against the new Chinese hegemony, the In contrast, if the 政治大 expansion power of China directly affected U.S. security, the U.S. would cooperate with 立. U.S. would become an offshore balancer and pass the buck.. its allies to constrain the challenge to the hegemony of the U.S.6. ‧ 國. 學. From the aspect of geostrategy, scholar Steven W. Mosher writes that there are. ‧. Currently, China is in the second stage of the. io. sit. Nat. hegemony and global hegemony.. y. three stages in China’s to pursuit of hegemony, including basic hegemony, regional. n. al. er. process, building its regional hegemony and setting goals to replace the U.S. as the new. i n U. v. global hegemony, therefore the U.S. needs to contain the hegemony in order to protect its own. power.7. Ch. engchi. Former U.S. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski pointed out that the U.S. now focuses on how to maintain its hegemony status and how to avoid another super power existing in Eurasia.8 Meanwhile, the rise of China’s economic power will only enhance its desire to seek global power distribution and could eventually endanger 5 6 7. 8. John Mearsheimer, op.cit., pp. 334-359. John Mearsheimer, op.cit., pp. 267-333. Steven W. Mosherk, Hegemon: China's Plan to Dominate Asia and the World (San Francisco: Encounter Books, 2000), pp. 139-158. Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy And Its Geostrategic Imperatives (New York: Basic Books, 1998). 9.

(20) the U.S.’ leading position in the world.. After the 9/11 incident, many scholars believed that the Sino-U.S. relations would become more cooperative rather than competitive. Christopher Layne believes that the U.S. needs to adjust its policy of constraint.. He points out that the Offshore. Balancing Strategy is a Primacy Strategy; furthermore, it is based on responsibility transferring rather than responsibility sharing.. This strategy in essence, admits that. the rise of a new super power is unstoppable, whether it is the EU, Germany, Japan, China or Russia. He also claims that in order to reduce security responsibility the U.S.. 政治大. has in areas of unrest, such as The Middle East and South East Europe, the U.S. should. 立. let Japan to take more responsibility. To avoid enraging Europe, Russia and China,. ‧ 國. 學. the U.S. should not continue to play the role of a global hegemony.. Layne also. predicted that if the U.S. keeps attempting to maintain its status as a global hegemony,. ‧. it may lead to a self-defeating result and consume its resources as other countries unite. y. Nat. io. a situation of a gradual escalation of strategic competition.. n. al. Ch. engchi. sit. Along with the rise of China, both the U.S. and China may fall into. er. against the U.S.9. i n U. v. As for China, Zheng Bijian mentioned the concept of the peaceful rise of China announced in late 2003 during the Boao Forum in Asia. He also published an article titled “China’s Peaceful Rise to Great-Power Status” in Foreign Affairs Journal. Zheng believes that the so-called “rise” should not only be limited to its military and economy, but it should also include political, social, cultural and diplomatic aspects as well.10. In. 2006, Zheng Bijian further pointed out that a new model of Cross-Strait relations is forming. The Cross-Strait relations have transforming from the military confrontation 9. 10. Christopher Layne, “Offshore Balancing Revisited,” The Washing Quarterly, Spring 2002, http://www.comw.org/qdr/fulltext/02wqlayne.pdf, p.245. Zheng Bijian, “China’s Peaceful Rise to Great-Power Status,” Foreign Affairs ,Vol. 84, Sep, 2005, pp. 18-24. 10.

(21) to exchanges and cooperation, in addition, more dialogue and consultation can happen between the PRC and Taiwan. As long as Taiwan doesn’t exclusive itself from the rising China, Taiwan will benefit from the peaceful rise of China, and it will also bring positive influences in Cross-Strait relations.11. Former Premier Wen Jiao Bao reiterates that China has risen peacefully and openly reformed. Wen believes that there are five criteria for China’s peaceful rise:12 “China takes the opportunity of the peace of the world to expand its own development. China’s rise is based on. At the same time, it can also maintain the peace of the world.. 政治大. its own power. Its reform and innovation relies on its big domestic market, sufficient labor, resources and capital.. 立. The rise of China will stick to an open policy and further develop. economic and trade relations with other countries based on equal and mutually beneficial. ‧ 國. 學. conditions.. The rise of China will take a long time and the efforts of many generations.. The rise of China will not interfere nor threat anyone. China doesn’t currently want to. ‧. dominate, nor does it want to dominate as it becomes more powerful in the future.”. sit. y. Nat. Most Chinese scholars think that the rise of China should be analyzed from. n. al. expansion and foreign policies.. er. io. different aspects, including its population, economy, energy consumption, economic. i n U. v. In addition, they also believe that the U.S. is the major. Ch. engchi. factor that constrains China’s international strategy.. Generally speaking, the ideal of peaceful rise has important meanings, especially for Cross-Strait relations between China and Taiwan. Besides the economic and trade relationships investment can bring, it also has direct influence toward the politics and security for both Taiwan and China. However, the peaceful rise is still a very blurry. 11. 12. Zheng Bijian, Chinese Grand Strategy Development ── On China's Peaceful Rise and Cross-Strait Relations (Taipei: Commomwealth Publishing, 2015). Ying-Cheng Wang, “News background: the original and development of China’s peaceful rise theory,” Xinhuanet, April. 23, 2004, http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/200404/23/content_1436993.htm 11.

(22) concept without specific content. From a strategic angle, it is impossible for the Chinese government to display its national development strategy to the world without reservation. For the Asia-Pacific region, the peaceful rise has also changed the region geoeconomically. Just as what the implementation of the European Union (EU) and the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) did for their respective regions, along with the of the rise of China, an economic cooperation mechanism in Asia-Pacific region now plays an important role on the global stage.. 1.5.2 Balance of Power. 政治大 There are many different 立explanations to define “power” in international relations. ‧ 國. 學. theory and the balance of power and power transition are important concepts in social science research.. Scholars such as Gideon Rose, Randall Schweller, and William. ‧. Wohlforth of Neoclassical Realism considered that countries prefer to maximize their. y. The main difference between Neoclassical. sit. Nat. influence rather than playing it secure.. n. al. er. io. Realism and Structural Realism is that the Neoclassical Realism believes that power. i n U. v. shifts between countries are not only defined by foreign policy, but also that people. Ch. engchi. should not ignore the intervening variables such as elites consensus, the fragility of political power and social movements.13 Moreover, the perception and misperception of international power distribution also directly affects how political policies could have been made.. Neoclassical Realism criticizes Classical Realism for its limitation on. the balance of power.. It claims that internal interest balance is the main factor for the. balance of international political power.. In addition, Neoclassical Realism use 2. variables to categorize four types of countries:. 13. Randall L. Schweller, “Unanswered Threats: A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Underbalancing,” International Security, Vol. 29, No. 2, 2004, pp. 168-181. 12.

(23) Table1.2 Categories of State in Neoclassical Realism14. Satisfied with current status. Unsatisfied with current status. Willing to change the situation. Lion. Jackal. Unwilling to change the situation. Lamb. Wolves. Source: Made by author. In another words, the intention of the countries (weather they are satisfied with their current status or not) and their national power (Weather they are willing to change. 政治大. the situation or not) are important variables in leading their policies toward to balancing,. 立. bandwagoning, expansion or buck-passing. Neoclassical Realism emphasizes that the. ‧ 國. maker’s recognition is the key factor instead.15. 學. international power distribution won’t directly affect the state’s action, the decision. ‧. y. sit. Nat. Kenneth N. Waltz once pointed out peace is not the purpose of balance of power.. io. M. Kaplan from Chicago University thinks that the aMorton v i l n C ha state interprets the balance of power is based on how intentions from another state, engchi U. n. can continue be in power.. er. Instead, the purpose is to ensure to rule out the foreign hegemony so the political power. and what kind of action it will adapt to avoid the current status of the balance of power being changed.16. Therefore, the recognition of balance of power depends on a state’s. subjective judgment of threat.. This makes it more difficult to define the balance of. power.. 14. 15. 16. Randall L. Schweller, “Bandwagoning for Profit Bringing the Revisionist State Back In,” International Security, Vol. 19, No.1, summer 1994, pp. 100-104. Randall L. Schweller, Deadly Imbalances: Tripolarity and Hitler Strategy of World Conquest (New York: Columbia University, 1998), pp. 93-120. Morton M. Kaplan, “Variants on Six Models of the International System,” International Politics and Foreign Policy, edited by James N. Rosenau ( New York: The Free Press), 1969, p.293. 13.

(24) Pursuing power continually to reach a stable capability is the foundation of the balance of power. Hans J. Morgenthau believes that only power can restrain power. Besides, since military force is the tool of power, it will only benefit state’s security and existence under the circumstance that their power is in balance. We can further divide the balance into two aspects which are internal balancing and external balancing. Internal balancing is focused on enhancing military and economic power to face external threats. threats.. External balancing is focused on making allies to prevent external. Furthermore, a country may also instigate conflicts among other countries in. 政治大. order to pursue its national interest.. 立. Hans J. Morgenthau also indicated that there are two models for balancing,. ‧ 國. 學. including the Direct Confrontation Mode and Competition Mode.. The Direct. Confrontation Mode means that two countries have confrontation directly, for examples,. ‧. the confrontation between the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the cold war. The. y. Nat. io. sit. Competition Mode refers to two countries competing for the controlling power of other. n. al. er. countries. The balance of power between two countries is gained through one of the above concepts.. i n U. v. This mode normally exists in the strategic stakeholders region, such. Ch. engchi. as the south East Asian region for the U.S. and China.17. 1.5.3 Power Transition. The Power Transition Theory was firstly raised by A.F. Keneth Organski. The theory suggests that during the process of power transition, the competition between two countries will easily bring up tension and conflict.. 17. The original dominate state is. Chen-Yin Chen, Strategic Interaction And Contest In East Asia Between United States And China During The Post-Cold War (MA Thesis for Institute of Strategic and International Affairs, Taiwan: National Chung Cheng University, 2011 ), pp. 15-20. 14.

(25) also called the defender, in contrast, the new arising power who is unsatisfied with the current situation and tends to make a change is called the challenger.. If the defender. and the challenger can’t coexistence peacefully, it may not only cause conflicts but also, war.18. Scholar Ronald L. Tammen indicates that the recognition of power in the Power Transition Theory is the combination of population, economic production and political system.. Satisfaction of the current status is another variable to explain whether war. will happen or not.. If the weaker country is able to catch up in terms of its power, it. 政治大. then has the ability to challenge the current situation. However, it doesn’t necessarily. 立. mean that it has the will to change the current situation. When the U.S. caught up with. ‧ 國. 學. the UK in the 20th century, the UK didn’t launch a war because the UK was satisfied with the situation then.19. The Power Transition Theory believes that conflicts and war. ‧. only occur during interactions between satisfied and unsatisfied countries.. Nat. y. There are. io. sit. two conditions exist in the process of power transition, the first one is the combination. n. al. er. of two powerful countries; secondly is that the rising country grows too fast and exceeds its hegemony.20. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. The international order is favorable to hegemony, therefore hegemony will choose to maintain the current status.. However, if there is a rising power that is not satisfied. with the current status, it will challenge the inequality and asymmetry of the system and require more power yield from hegemony which could lead to a possible conflicts or. 18 19. 20. A.F. K. Organski, World Politics (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1968), p.58. Sin-Wei Tang, “Bilateral Relations between the Two Greatest Powers (1660~2006),” Taiwanese Journal of Political Science, Vol.44, June, 2010, pp. 75-104. Liang-Zhi Chen, “Searching for the Driving Forces behind U.S.-China Strategic Competition: Security Dilemma, Balance of Power, or Power Transition?” Mainland China Studies, Vol. 52, No.1, March 2009, pp. 91-93. 15.

(26) war.21. The relations between the U.S. and China may change if China continue to. challenge the status, reputation of the U.S., and it may cause unrest in the region.. 1.5.4 Informal Alliance Politics. There are two types of alliance, formal or informal. that are formed without signing treaty.. Informal alliances are ones. The degree of formality of an alliance can be. adjusted to accommodate states’ interests and enable them to maneuver in a changed international environment.. Alliances keep promise to each other to act in a specific. 政治大. way in specified contingencies, however, alliances also carry the risk of security. 立. dilemma.22. ‧ 國. 學. Charles Lipson pointed out that there are five advantages for informal agreements,. ‧. including: First, the informal agreements are more flexible than treaties.. Second,. sit. y. Nat. informal agreements make fewer informational demands on the concerned parties.. io. Fourth, informal agreements are less public hence the low profile can. al. n. advantage.. avoid democratic oversight. pledges.23. er. Third, the process and negotiation of informal agreements is faster; speed is a particular. v i n C h informal agreements Finally, avoid formal and public engchi U. The United States, as an informal ally of Taiwan has been actively engaged in Cross-Strait affairs since President Ma Ying-jeou was elected in 2008.. In addition,. the improvement in Cross-Strait relations has imposed a restraint on the U.S. Taiwan informal alliance. The two countries are tied together into an informal alliance based. 21 22. 23. Liang-Zhi Chen, op.cit., pp. 94-96. Edward I-Hsin Chen, “The Security Dilemma in U.S.-Taiwan Informal Alliance Politics.” Issues & Studies, Vol. 48, No. 1, March 2012, p.3. Edward I-Hsin Chen, op.cit., p.4. 16.

(27) on the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA)－ a peace of domestic legislation approved by the U.S. Congress, not an agreement between two countries.. Although many suspect that. the role of the U.S. in Cross-Strait affairs has become less important since President Hu Jintao stated his six proposals for promoting the peaceful development of the CrossStrait relationship, the U.S. is still Taiwan’s most substantial “ally” in different ways.24. Diplomatically speaking, the improvement in Cross-Strait relations and the unwritten consensus have brought a change in the U.S.-Taiwan informal alliance. Taiwan used to use the U.S. to stabilize its diplomatic ties with countries in the. 政治 However,大 since President Ma won the. Caribbean, Central and South America.. 立. election in 2008, China have acquiesced in Ma’s diplomatic truce, which make China. ‧ 國. 學. postpone negotiations with some Taiwan’s allies who were attempting to establish formal ties with Beijing.. In the same way, before 2008, it was the U.S., Japan,. ‧. Australia, South Korea and the member states of the European Union (EU) who were. y. Nat. io. sit. the most influential for Taiwan to participate in international governmental. n. al. er. organizations (IGOs), and now the role has been taken by China.. i n U. After established a. v. diplomatic truce with China, tensions between Cross-Straits have eased and Taiwan has. Ch. engchi. been allowed to expand its international space.25. Economically speaking, Cross-Strait economic relations have largely developed on the basis of “economy first, politics later” and “easy first, hard later” since President Ma won the election in 2008. year after year since 2000.. Taiwan’s exports to China have increased significantly In contrast, Taiwan’s exports to the U.S. have decreased. since 2000. Especially, the value of exports to china in 2010 (76.9 Million) was more. 24 25. Edward I-Hsin Chen, op.cit., pp. 7-11. Edward I-Hsin Chen, op.cit., pp. 11-17. 17.

(28) than double of exports (31.5 Million) to the U.S. in the same period of time.. It is. reasonable to expect that the U.S.-Taiwan economic relationship will become less close in the future. Moreover, if Beijing allow Taiwan to conclude FTAs with its neighbors, Taipei may be more dependent on Beijing, hence, Washington may have reason to fear Taipei’s defection from their informal economic alliance and need to reassure Taipei by employing a cooperative and positive economic strategy toward Taiwan.. For example,. the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is one of the U.S.’ countermeasures designed to balance the rising power of China.26. 政治大. From the aspects of Security, even with a significant improvement of Cross-Straits. 立. in order to reduce the risk of accidental conflict.. 學. ‧ 國. relations, the establishment of confidence-building mechanisms (CBMs) is still needed Additionally, in order to ensure. Washington’s security commitment and procure the U.S.’ weapons system, arms sales. ‧. to Taiwan is also concerned as a “self-help” behavior.. President Ma pointed out that. y. Nat. io. As for the U.S., it played multiple roles since 1949.. n. al. er. military threat.. sit. although Cross-Strait ties had improved dramatically but he had not ignored China’s. i n U. When it. v. dispatched two aircraft carrier battle groups to waters near the Taiwan Strait during the. Ch. engchi. 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, it was playing the role of an arbitrator. When it promoted the Cross-Strait dialogue, it was playing the role of a mediator. When it provided Taiwan with sophisticated weapons systems and a security commitment, it was playing the role of a guarantor.27. 26 27. Edward I-Hsin Chen, op.cit., pp. 21-27. Edward I-Hsin Chen, op.cit., pp. 28-31. 18.

(29) 1.6 Research Scope and Limitations 1.6.1 Research Scope. I.. Time: Since 1949 the U.S. and China have been in a competitive and cooperative relationship. However, recently China’s economic and military power has increased dramatically, the sign of becoming the regional hegemony made the U.S. once again mentioned the concept of the China In June 2013, President Xi mentioned the concept of “the New. threat theory.. 政治大 President 立 Obama used the term of “establishing a New Model of. Model of Sino-U.S. Major Power Relations” at the World Peace Forum in Beijing.”. ‧ 國. 學. Cooperation.” Two countries agreed that they would seek both to develop the principles of this “new model” of relations and to operationalize those. ‧. principles with concrete and practical cooperation to mutually benefit to both 28. This thesis will focus on the first term of the Obama. sit. y. Nat. nations.. aThel research period is between January v 2009 and December i n Ch U engchi. n. research target. 2015.. II.. er. io. administration, use his “Pivot to Asia” and the “rebalancing” policies as the. Space: this research will focus on the East Asia region and especially, how the interaction between U.S. and China will affect Cross-Strait relations.. III. Content: from the aspects of national security, economy and diplomacy to analysis what goal the U.S. wants to reach under its strategic shift to the East, and in contrast, what kind of achievement China has reached to avoid the U.S. 28. Stephen J. Hadley, “America, China and the 'New Model of Great-Power Relations,” The Lowy Institute, November 2014, http://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/america-china-and-newmodel-great-power-relations. 19.

(30) putting its hand in the region.. Economically speaking, the Trans-pacific. Partnership (TPP) which is led by the U.S. and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) which is led by China, both can be good examples to show how both countries are eager to maximize their economic influence via international organizations through diplomacy.. From the. aspect of national security, although the U.S. still remains its super power status.. However, the rise of its military power gives China confidence to. deal with conflicts on the South China Sea.. This in turn, may further. 政治大. increase the tensions in the region.. 立. 1.6.2 Research Limitation. ‧ 國. 學. The U.S. and China are trade partners, at the same time, they also share common. ‧. interests on anti-terrorism and both want to constrain nuclear weapon expansion.. sit. y. Nat. After 911, terrorism has become their new enemy, therefore we need to focus on the. n. al. er. io. whole picture and not only focus on the competition between the two countries without. i n U. v. also looking at the cooperation between the two countries as well.. Ch. engchi. At the same time, U.S. has actively consolidated its allies and built a cooperative frame work focused on economic and national defense policies.. Japan, Korea,. Australia, the Philippines and Thailand are the foundation to maintain the region’s security and economic prosperity.. There is no doubt that the U.S. will continue to. deepen bilateral relationships with its allies in order to guarantee its allies and its own national interests, especially while Japan and Korea are taking leading roles in regional and global issues of the proliferation of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction (WMD’s), anti-terrorism, fighting infectious diseases and so on.. Hence,. we know that many other countries also have crucial influences in the Asia-Pacific 20.

(31) region, but in this research I cannot cover it all.. According to the New Foreign Policy Actors in China from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), it shows that the foreign policies are not only decided by China’s State Council, but also the Communist Party, The People’s Liberation Army, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other non-governmental units have great influences.29. Inconsistent ideas about foreign affairs from different units. in China and the lack of access to the actual decision makers may cause deviations. addition, the U.S.’ strategic shift towards the East is still ongoing.. 政治大. In. Therefore I am only. able to expand the research sources from credible sources of literature, secondary data. 立. and publication information.. ‧ 國. 學. 1.7 Chapter Arrangement. ‧. The first chapter is instruction, besides. sit. y. Nat. There are six chapters in this thesis.. io. er. explaining the research background, I use the political system theory as the research approach to discuss elements of competition and cooperation between the U.S. and. al. n. v i n China, and how the RebalanceC to Asia Policy may affect h e n g c h i U Cross-Strait relations.. In. addition, I use Historical Research, Content Analysis and Comparative Research as the basis of my research methodology.. As for my literature review, I apply “the rise of. China” to explain the background information, “Balance of Power” and “Power Transition” for the Sino-U.S. relations, and “Informal Alliance Politics” for U.S.Taiwan relations.. Chapter two discusses the U.S. Rebalance to Asia Policy, in this chapter, besides. 29. Linda Jakobson & Dean Knox, New Foreign policy Actors in China (Stockholm, Sweden: SIPRI Policy Paper, 2010), pp. 4-16. 21.

(32) using official announcements and documents, I further pinpoint the goals of this policy and what kind of methods the U.S. used to achieve their strategic goals.. The U.S. has. been relocating their troops, upgrading military programs, rebalancing force structures, and has increased the frequency of joint military exercises with its allies to enhance cooperation and make mutual security agreements in the region.. From the aspect of. economics, by promoting the TPP, the U.S. can avoid countries in South East Asia relying on Chin too much economically.. In terms of diplomacy, the U.S. cooperated. with China in order to combat global terrorism and in its quest to try to solve the issues. 政治大 the U.S. has also actively participated in various mutual organizations to increase its 立. of Afghanistan and Iraq, and North Korean Iranian nuclear weaponization. In addition,. influence in the region.. ‧ 國. 學. Chapter three approaches the competition and cooperation between the U.S. and. ‧. the PRC under the Rebalance to Asia Policy. For the most part, China chooses to have. y. Nat. io. sit. a peaceful dialogue while ramping up its military presence at the same time.. n. al. er. Additionally, China sees sovereignty issues, such as the disputes in the East China and. i n U. v. South China Seas as part of its national core interest, which also makes it difficult to find compromises on.. Ch. engchi. Economically speaking, China actively promotes the RCEP. since China can’t get a favorable position under the U.S. lead TPP.. In chapter four I outline the benefits to Taiwan has enjoyed and Taiwan’s Response to the U.S. Rebalancing Asia Policy.. Regarding the military aspects, there is not much. room for Taiwan to make adjustments.. However, from the aspect of economics,. Taiwan relies heavily on exports, hence it is crucial for Taiwan to join Regional economic cooperation such as the TPP and RCEP.. As for diplomacy, in order to. maximize Taiwan’s interests, its best to maintain mutual relationships with various 22.

(33) countries including the U.S., China and Japan.. Chapter five analyses Potential Development of Cross-Strait Relations under the U.S. Rebalancing Asia Policy.. When Sino-U.S. relations are in a process of. constrainment rather than engagement, Taiwan seems to benefit from a more flexible U.S.. In the future, we can expect that the U.S. will not be happy to see any tensions. in the Taiwan Strait escalate and risk another war.. Conversely however, if Cross-. Strait relations improve significantly, it may cast doubt and create a sense of insecurity amongst the U.S., Japan and other ASEAN countries. Hence, since Taiwan and China. 政治大. have had more consensus on less sensitive issues, both sides may have more progress. 立. on financial and cultural cooperation as well as educational exchange.. ‧ 國. 學. My conclusions are found in chapter 6.. In the first section are my findings to. ‧. explain what kind of approach the U.S. has used for its Rebalance to Asia Policy, and. sit. y. Nat. whether it reached its strategic goals and furthermore, what kind of response China and. n. al. er. io. Taiwan have had toward this policy. I also explore the impact the Rebalance to Asia. i n U. v. Policy has brought to Cross-Strait Relations. In the second section I provide a few. Ch. engchi. suggestions based on my observations of the complexities of U.S., China and Taiwan relations.. 23.

(34) Chapter II The U.S Rebalance to Asia Policy The U.S. uses containment and engagement as its foreign policy towards China, and it adjust these three methods according to its regional/global interest and China’s political affiliation.1 After the 911 incident, the U.S. needed China’s support for its war on terror, especially where China could help mediate nuclear weapon issues of North Korea.. 政治大. At the point when the U.S. adjusted its strategic core to the war on terror, the. 立. support they received from China also improve Sino-U.S. relations. However, the. ‧ 國. 學. cooperation between the U.S. and China is more like a short-term allied relationship. In the long run, it seems both countries will not reach agreements on major issues such. ‧. as a resolution to the issues in the South China Sea.. sit. y. Nat. al. er. io. On July 2009, the Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared “the United. v. n. States is back” during a press conference in Bangkok. Hillary Clinton mentioned the. Ch. engchi. i n U. administration of President Obama thinks it's time to show Asian nations that the U.S. is not distracted by its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and intends to broaden and deepen its partnerships in this region.2 In November 2009, President Obama visited Indonesia, Japan and South Korea. He further visited Australia and attended the East Asia Summit, EAS in November 2011. The frequent visits to Asia showed that the U.S. was interested in a transfer of its strategic goals to include the Asia-Pacific region.3 1. 2. 3. Ya-Zhong Zhang, The U.S.’ China policy: Containment, Communication, Strategic partner (Taipei： Sheng Zhi, 1999), pp. 19-33. The Associated Press, “U.S. 'is back' is Asia, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declares,” Daily News, July 21, 2009. Retrieved 10 January 2016, from http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/u-sback-asia-secretary-state-hillary-clinton-declares-article-1.429381 Elisabeth Bumiller and Thom Shanker, “Obama Puts His Stamp on Strategy for a Leaner Military,” 24.

(35) On January 2010, Hillary Clinton once again emphasized that the U.S. is not only back to Asia, but also stated ”we are back to stay.”4 President Obama also emphasized this during a speech to the Australian Parliament saying “In the Asia-Pacific in the 21st century, the United States of America is all in.”5 On October 2011, Hillary Clinton published “America’s Pacific Century,” which announced that the United States stands at a Pivot point and it has moved to fully engage the region’s multilateral institutions such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. This article also emphasized that the intentions. 政治大 consistent with its goal of retaining a leading position globally. The six key lines of 立. of the Pivot to Asia policy is to remain engaged and to lead, 6 the purpose is to. action include strengthening bilateral security alliances; deepening their working. ‧ 國. 學. relationships with emerging powers, including China; engaging with regional. io. sit. y. Nat. military presence; and advancing democracy and human rights.. ‧. multilateral institutions; expanding trade and investment; forging a broad-based. n. al. er. The former minister of defense of the United States Leon Panetta declared that. i n U. v. the Rebalance to Asia Policy is more focused on engagement with China and increasing. Ch. engchi. its position in the Asia-Pacific region than to contain China; it is about creating a new model in the relationship between the two Pacific Powers.7 The Pivot to Asia policy. 4. 5. 6. 7. The New York Times, Jan. 5, 2012. Retrieved 10 January 2016, from http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/06/us/obama-at-pentagon-to-outline-cuts-and-strategicshifts.html?_r=0” Hillary Rodham Clinton, “Remarks on Regional Architecture in Asia: Principles and Priorities.” Remarks by Secretary of State, Honolulu, Hawaii, Jan. 12, 2010. Retrieved 10 January 2016, from http://m.state.gov/md135090.htm Office of the Press Secretary, White House, 2011. “Remarks by President Obama to the Australian Parliament.” Canberra, Australia, Nov. 17. Retrieved 10 January 2016, from https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/17/remarks-president-obama-australianparliament Hillary Rodham Clinton, “America’s Pacific Century,” The Foreign Policy, Oct. 11, 2011. Retrieved 10 January 2016, from http://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/11/americas-pacific-century/ Luis Ramirez, “Panetta: US Not Trying to Contain China,” Voice of America, September 19, 2012. Retrieved 10 January 2016, from http://www.voanews.com/content/panetta-us-not-trying-to25.

(36) includes military, economic and diplomatic aspects, in this chapter I will analyze the United States’ Asia policy from these three aspects.. 2.1 From the Aspect of Military In order to constrain China’s military development, the U.S. enhanced its relationship with its allies, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, Thailand and the Philippines. The U.S. made the South China Sea Code of Conduct and East China Sea Code of Conduct with Japan and related parties involved in the Spratly Islands. 政治大 regarding the Senkaku Islands 立 and Spratly Islands, which consequently has made dispute in ASEAN. At the same time, China continually took a provocative stance. ‧ 國. 學. relations between U.S. and China more intense.8. ‧. The military has always been the focus for an East Asia strategy.. Just as the. sit. y. Nat. this region trust the U.S.’ security commitment through its military power.. Countries in. io. to Asia and it sees China everywhere.. al. China has become the number one entity to. v i n In 2010 the Sea-AirC Battle Doctrine was announced in order to respond the hengchi U n. deal with.. er. article published by The New York Times on November 16, 2011 states, the U.S. looks. expansion of China’s military power.. In January 2012, President Obama declared the. U.S.’ strategic guidelines for Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership known as their Priorities for 21st Century Defense.. It is intended as a blueprint for Joint Force. operations up until 2020, providing a set of precepts that will help guide decisions regarding the size and shape of forces over subsequent programs and budget cycles, while highlighting some of the strategic risks that may be associated with the proposed. 8. contain-china/1510768.html Guo-Cai Zhao, “Global Hegemony Contains Regional Powers- The U.S. Asia Rebalancing Strategy,” Straits Review Monthly, Vol. 273, September, 2013. Retrieved 10 January 2016, from http://www.haixiainfo.com.tw/273-8899.html# 26.

(37) strategy."9. This guidelines point out that in order to achieve global security, the U.S.. needs to continually rebalance the Asia-Pacific region.. President Obama also. reiterated that the U.S. will give more attention to the region even in the face of defense budget cuts.10. Under the 2011 Budget Control Act (BCA) the U.S. must cut defense by nearly $1 trillion over 10 years. However, Iran continues its pursuit of nuclear weapons while expanding its malign influence across the region.. And China has stepped up its. coercive behavior in Asia, backed by its rapid military modernization.. 政治大. Every year. since the Budget Control Act was passed, the world has become more dangerous, and. 立. the threats to the nation and to American interests have grown.11. The United States. ‧ 國. 學. Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter pointed out the strategy guideline mentioned above is declared due to the budget cuts.. This strategic guidance. ‧. specifically pointed out that U.S. needs to rebalance its force structure and investments. y. Nat. io. sit. towards the Asia-Pacific region area where there are several potential challenges to. n. al. er. stability, and of course to the Middle East, where challenges persist, and towards. i n U. v. advancing capabilities to maintain access and power projection which are relevant globally.. Ch. engchi. However, the budget cuts still bring doubts about whether the Obama. administration could turn its strategic core and military force to the Asia-Pacific region in order to reach the purpose of constraining China.. 9. 10. 11. Primary Sources, “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense,” Council on Foreign Relations, January 5, 2012, Retrieved 10 January 2016, from http://www.cfr.org/defense-strategy/sustaining-us-global-leadership-priorities-21st-centurydefense/p26976 Office of the Press Secretary, White House, 2012. “Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney.” Jan 5. Retrieved 10 January 2016, from https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pressoffice/2012/01/05/press-briefing-press-secretary-jay-carney-152012 John Maccain and Mac Thornberry, “America’s Dangerous Defense Cuts,” The Wall Street Journal, March 9, 2015. Retrieved 10 January 2016, from http://www.wsj.com/articles/john-mccain-andmac-thornberry-americas-dangerous-defense-cuts-1425943297 27.

(38) In fact, representatives from the departments of State, Energy and the Interior; the Agency for International Development; the FBI and the CIA are all assigned to the Pacific Outreach Directorate to assure the plans of the rebalancing strategy could be strictly followed. Furthermore, the U.S. implemented the concept of forward-deployed diplomacy in order to reach into Asia and be involved in several important regional cooperation mechanisms.. These all showed that the U.S. has attempted to continue. its influence in Asia.. The U.S. Commander of Pacific Air Forces, Herbert J. Carlisle said the tough. 政治大. advocate of sovereignty made by China might lead to a misjudgment of risk.. 立. At the. same time, it can help Washington D.C. to strengthen relationships with its allies. In the. ‧ 國. 學. meantime, the U.S. continues to transfer military forces and assets from Europe to Asia. The new military strategy is focuses on utilizing smaller scale yet higher technology. ‧. equipment to improve its fighting ability.. Reducing the amount of ground forces. y. Nat. io. sit. shows that the U.S. is intent on avoiding large scale military operations, instead, they. n. al. er. prefer to equip troops with technologically advanced equipment making them more available and versatile if required.. Ch. i n U. v. In addition, the U.S.’ new military strategy is. engchi. focused on how to build a military force which can respond quickly and execute military missions anywhere in the world in order to protect its national interests.. With the challenges of budget cuts, the U.S. has to set priorities in order to use their limited resources as efficiently as possible. At this point, the biggest threat to their security is mainly from the Middle East (Iran, Syria and ISIL) and Asia-Pacific (China). These regions are the new focus for the U.S. Hence even with these budget cuts the U.S. won’t weaken its military power in the above areas. In addition, the U.S. will enhance military cooperation with the allies to solidify it’s dominate position in 28.

(39) these regions.. On August 21, 2012 the U.S. Marines and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force held joint military exercises for 37 days.. These military exercises were held during. the most intense period in the Senkaku Islands dispute.. Former Secretary of Defense. of United States Leon Panetta mentioned that the U.S. will deploy 60% of their navy ships before 2020 in The Shangri-La Dialogue of 2012 in Singapore. Even before Panetta arrived in Singapore, the U.S. already announced to move their marines from Okinawa to Guam.. In addition, the troops in Seoul were moved to the central area of. 政治大. South Korea. All these actions showed that the U.S. was making adjustments to spread. 立. their military resources to different areas in order to make their troops more flexible. ‧ 國. 學. and have quicker access to North East Asia, South East Asia and even the Indian Ocean. 12. Furthermore, military diplomacy also comes along with this rebalancing. ‧. strategy. Besides enhancing their bilateral relationship with Australia, Japan, South. y. Nat. sit. Korea, the Philippines and Thailand, the U.S. also built new partnership relationships. n. al. er. io. with Singapore, Vietnam and India.13. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. Increasing the frequency and scale of military exercises is also a new characteristic that can be observed after the Pivot to Asia strategy was announced. In 2010, more than a half of the joint military exercises lead by the U.S. were held in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2011, the U.S held military exercises in the Asia-Pacific region 172 times. It was as much as once in every two days on average. From June to August 2012, there was a 55 days of joint military exercises (RIMPAC) in Hawaii where 22 12. 13. Editorial, “The U.S. New Asia-Pacific Strategy and China’s Internal contradictions impact regional stability,” Youth Daily News, June 11, 2012, Retrieved 10 January 2016, from http://news.gpwb.gov.tw/mobile/news.aspx?ydn=w2u5S9CJZGAXB%2FzPg%2Fq7ahBURwZ%2FxCk oH%2BRnvuMETFzXce8eu8HiRoggTehHrMd1OFGhXbuEnzzeA0viBem0b7Fv%2BAuuu1RdKxtzj%2F w0HbY%3D Ibid. 29.

(40) different countries had participated, 14 with China, at that time, being excluded. However, China was invited to attend RIMPAC for the first time until 2014.. Along with China’s rise, the competition between the U.S. and China has of course become more intense. The key factors of the intensification includes a lack of mutual trust and the fears of nuclear weapon capabilities. Aside from business and trade relations between the U.S. and China becoming more stable, issues such as international security, internet security and China’s human rights record are still thorny issues that persist. Secondly, China has limited ability to build nuclear weapons while at the same. 政治大. time China has concerns about the U.S. to increasing its nuclear submarine presence in. 立. In addition, U.S. constant observations from the U.S.’ superior. 學. ‧ 國. the Pacific Ocean.. reconnaissance satellites also compromises China’s ability to scale-up their nuclear program without detection if they chose to do so.15. ‧ sit. y. Nat. Although both the U.S. and China now understand that it is crucial for both to. al. er. io. develop relations between the major powers, when they deal with important. v. n. international strategic issues, they still can’t get rid of the suspicions they have of each other.. Ch. engchi. i n U. For example, President Obama tends to refer to China as a peaceful contributor. in Asia-Pacific region. However, the General Secretary of the Central Committeeof the Communist Party of China Xi Jinping believes that the major barrier of the high level talks between the U.S. and China is the uncertainty of the U.S.’ intention toward China. In addition, the Rebalance to Asia Policy constrains China from economic, diplomatic, and military expansion. The strategic assessment 2012 pointed out that. 14. 15. Commandeer, U.S. Pacific Fleet, “RIMPAC 2012- About the Exercise.” June 29, 2012. Retrieved 10 January 2016, from http://www.cpf.navy.mil/rimpac/2012/about/ Editorial, “Doubt in Sino-U.S. exacerbated, Taiwan need to be more flexible,” Want Daily, July 13, 2013, Retrieved 10 January 2016, from http://www.wantdaily.com/portal.php?mod=view&aid=80449 30.

(41) China needs to put efforts on increasing its mutual understanding and trust with other countries.16. Generally speaking, most Asia-Pacific countries hope that the U.S. and China can have a healthy competitive and cooperative relationship based on mutual trust. However, as Chinese hackers constantly threaten the U.S.’ internet security and Chinese leaders still consider the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Australia and potential threats to it hard to see both sides overcoming their stances even with high level talks.. 政治大 the Rebalance to Asia Policy. 立Firstly, maintaining relationships with the original allies, From the perspective of any East Asia allies, there are two key points regarding. ‧ 國. 學. such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, Thailand and the Philippines. Secondly, to deepen diplomatic and military relationships with Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, New. ‧. Zealand, Myanmar and Cambodia. As long as these countries could feel relatively. io. their back on the U.S.. al. er. sit. y. Nat. secure with the existence of the U.S. in Asia, they would not depend on China and turn. n. v i n C hby China in the South In addition, the unrest caused China Sea and the threat of engchi U. nuclear weapons development in North Korea both has increased the tension in the Asia-Pacific region. The allies of the U.S. consequently have increased their demands for jets, weapons or anti missiles system.. The Rebalance to Asia Policy dramatically. increased the sales of arms for the U.S. and in turn, has creates economic benefit too.. In 2012, the U.S. had arms sales valued as US$ 9,018 million (see Table2.1).. In. 2008 there were only 5 million arm sales to India, however, it reached US$ 139 million. 16. Xinhua New Agency, “Strategic evaluation 2012 report published,” Xinhua Net, May 28, 2013. Retrieved 10 January 2016, from http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2013-05/28/c_124777401.htm 31.