Chapter I: Introduction
1.5 Literature Review
1.5.1 The Rise of China
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diplomacy.
3) To understand the benefits to Taiwan and Taiwan’s response to the U.S.
Rebalance to Asia Policy through national security, economy and diplomacy.
4) To understand the potential development of Cross-Strait relations under U.S.
Rebalance to Asia Policy.
1.5 Literature Review
1.5.1 The Rise of China
At the end of cold war, China had been carrying out revolution and an open policy for over a decade. As its economic and military power was significantly improving, China had been seen more and more as a potential threat that would replace the Soviet Union. In addition, with its expanding power, China became the most influential state in the East Asia region.
The idea of the rise of China was mentioned for the first time in 1992 in a Policy Review by Ross H. Munro in an article titled “Awakening Dragon: The Real Dragon in Asia is From China.” Munro discusses how China turned to expansionism and challenged America’s national interests and the China Threat Theory.
John Mearsheimer is an advocate of the China Threat theory. In the book of “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,” Measheimer states that hegemony is the goal of power pursuing.4 Measheimer also believed that the U.S. has been maintaining its
4 John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York & London: W.W. Norton &
Company, 2001), pp. 29-54.
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position as a global hegemony by playing the role of the Offshore Balancer. However, the goal of the rise China is not to maintain the current status, but to move toward to regional hegemony based on its own national interests and political power in Asia.
Therefore, conflict between the U.S. and China is unavoidable. In addition, China is potentially more dangerous than any other potential hegemony the U.S. may encounter in the 21st century.5 Mearsheimer also mentioned that there are two methods for the U.S. to deal with the rise of China, which are Power Balancing and Buck-Passing. If there are other states in the region played a role against the new Chinese hegemony, the U.S. would become an offshore balancer and pass the buck. In contrast, if the expansion power of China directly affected U.S. security, the U.S. would cooperate with its allies to constrain the challenge to the hegemony of the U.S.6
From the aspect of geostrategy, scholar Steven W. Mosher writes that there are three stages in China’s to pursuit of hegemony, including basic hegemony, regional hegemony and global hegemony. Currently, China is in the second stage of the process, building its regional hegemony and setting goals to replace the U.S. as the new global hegemony, therefore the U.S. needs to contain the hegemony in order to protect its own power.7
Former U.S. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski pointed out that the U.S. now focuses on how to maintain its hegemony status and how to avoid another super power existing in Eurasia.8 Meanwhile, the rise of China’s economic power will only enhance its desire to seek global power distribution and could eventually endanger
5 John Mearsheimer, op.cit., pp. 334-359.
6 John Mearsheimer, op.cit., pp. 267-333.
7 Steven W. Mosherk, Hegemon: China's Plan to Dominate Asia and the World (San Francisco:
Encounter Books, 2000), pp. 139-158.
8 Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy And Its Geostrategic Imperatives (New York: Basic Books, 1998).
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the U.S.’ leading position in the world.
After the 9/11 incident, many scholars believed that the Sino-U.S. relations would become more cooperative rather than competitive. Christopher Layne believes that the U.S. needs to adjust its policy of constraint. He points out that the Offshore Balancing Strategy is a Primacy Strategy; furthermore, it is based on responsibility transferring rather than responsibility sharing. This strategy in essence, admits that the rise of a new super power is unstoppable, whether it is the EU, Germany, Japan, China or Russia. He also claims that in order to reduce security responsibility the U.S.
has in areas of unrest, such as The Middle East and South East Europe, the U.S. should let Japan to take more responsibility. To avoid enraging Europe, Russia and China, the U.S. should not continue to play the role of a global hegemony. Layne also predicted that if the U.S. keeps attempting to maintain its status as a global hegemony, it may lead to a self-defeating result and consume its resources as other countries unite against the U.S.9 Along with the rise of China, both the U.S. and China may fall into a situation of a gradual escalation of strategic competition.
As for China, Zheng Bijian mentioned the concept of the peaceful rise of China announced in late 2003 during the Boao Forum in Asia. He also published an article titled “China’s Peaceful Rise to Great-Power Status” in Foreign Affairs Journal. Zheng believes that the so-called “rise” should not only be limited to its military and economy, but it should also include political, social, cultural and diplomatic aspects as well.10 In 2006, Zheng Bijian further pointed out that a new model of Cross-Strait relations is forming. The Cross-Strait relations have transforming from the military confrontation
9 Christopher Layne, “Offshore Balancing Revisited,” The Washing Quarterly, Spring 2002, http://www.comw.org/qdr/fulltext/02wqlayne.pdf, p.245.
10 Zheng Bijian, “China’s Peaceful Rise to Great-Power Status,” Foreign Affairs ,Vol. 84, Sep, 2005, pp.
18-24.
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to exchanges and cooperation, in addition, more dialogue and consultation can happen between the PRC and Taiwan. As long as Taiwan doesn’t exclusive itself from the rising China, Taiwan will benefit from the peaceful rise of China, and it will also bring positive influences in Cross-Strait relations.11
Former Premier Wen Jiao Bao reiterates that China has risen peacefully and openly reformed. Wen believes that there are five criteria for China’s peaceful rise:12
“China takes the opportunity of the peace of the world to expand its own development.
At the same time, it can also maintain the peace of the world. China’s rise is based on its own power. Its reform and innovation relies on its big domestic market, sufficient labor, resources and capital. The rise of China will stick to an open policy and further develop economic and trade relations with other countries based on equal and mutually beneficial conditions. The rise of China will take a long time and the efforts of many generations.
The rise of China will not interfere nor threat anyone. China doesn’t currently want to dominate, nor does it want to dominate as it becomes more powerful in the future.”
Most Chinese scholars think that the rise of China should be analyzed from different aspects, including its population, economy, energy consumption, economic expansion and foreign policies. In addition, they also believe that the U.S. is the major factor that constrains China’s international strategy.
Generally speaking, the ideal of peaceful rise has important meanings, especially for Cross-Strait relations between China and Taiwan. Besides the economic and trade relationships investment can bring, it also has direct influence toward the politics and security for both Taiwan and China. However, the peaceful rise is still a very blurry
11 Zheng Bijian, Chinese Grand Strategy Development ── On China's Peaceful Rise and Cross-Strait Relations (Taipei: Commomwealth Publishing, 2015).
12 Ying-Cheng Wang, “News background: the original and development of China’s peaceful rise theory,”Xinhuanet, April. 23, 2004,
http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2004-04/23/content_1436993.htm
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concept without specific content. From a strategic angle, it is impossible for the Chinese government to display its national development strategy to the world without reservation. For the Asia-Pacific region, the peaceful rise has also changed the region geoeconomically. Just as what the implementation of the European Union (EU) and the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) did for their respective regions, along with the of the rise of China, an economic cooperation mechanism in Asia-Pacific region now plays an important role on the global stage.