建議 - 以系統觀探討台灣產業的發展

產業系統過於複雜，藉由多元觀點有助於理解。例如：系統動態學探究各參與者的政策與互動關係，對產業系統發展的影響；演化觀點則藉由豐富的例證，掌握其複雜的演化過程，說明本土民間企業因應產業發展的脈絡。不過尚有一些系統觀點，如 Morgan(1983)避免無法存活策略的觀點、Beer(1972)的能存活系統模式(Viable System Model, VSM)、自覺演化 (Self-conscious Evolution)等系統觀，尚待進一步深入探討。

藉由多元系統方法觀察產業發展，除了本文已探討的台灣國防、汽車、

半導體、資訊產業外，尚可進一步探討其他更多種產業，例如：液晶顯示器、生技、數位內容等。每種產業在台灣的競爭、發展、成果不盡相同，

但都牽涉到政府、本土民間企業、多國籍企業等參與者。

開發中國家產業發展，產官學和多國籍企業的互動模式，以生態系統、

系統動態學、演化觀點視之，有可能具有不同的模式。例如：韓國本土民間企業以大財團為主，新加坡幾乎仰賴多國籍企業，而中國大陸的國有企業、校辦企業、三資企業，則是造成近二十年產業蓬勃發展的主力；其互動方式和對產業發展的影響，可能不盡相同。值得採用本研究多元系統觀點，進一步分析這些國家產業發展，以嘗試探討，並比較其可能的共同點及相異點。

多元系統方法實務上的應用，可以進一步擴展到，技術預測、新事業規劃、策略規劃、政策模擬等。這些活動都有其共同特徵，複雜、動態，

影響發展的參與者多，且非單獨某一參與者可以主導。以技術預測為例：

技術發展牽涉到技術、市場、社會、經濟、法規、國家等環境變化，影響變化的參與者眾多，而又沒有人可以單獨主導其發展。是故技術預測，需要不同領域的專家參與，其複雜度相當高；利用多元系統觀探討技術發展的趨勢，應該可以有更多的理解。

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