第五章 結論
第三節 研究限制與研究建議
經過本研究的研究過程後，筆者發現本研究具有以下限制：
（一）社會特質的多元性難以掌握
社會特質是多元及動態的，隨時都在改變。本研究雖透過專家問卷，企 圖在對該領域有最佳認識的學者、專家中找出最適解，但仍難免會有疏漏。
研究過程中，不難發現，專家與專家、專家與研究者之間也會有意見相異之 處，研究者認為該放入指標的，專家卻並不認為，又或是專家認為該放入指 標的，另外一位專家卻不認為。可見對於社會特質而言，人人各有各自的考 量，是相當主觀性的。在主觀的判斷下，就很難以全面的方式來探討。另一 方面，要探討全面的社會特質也是相當困難的，將耗費相當多的時間與心 力，這種接近「普查」式的研究過程，在研究上是相當不符合成本的，因此 在客觀條件上，也不允許本研究去做這樣的全面的調查。透過意見的收斂，
去蕪存菁，將真正重要的保留下來，才是本研究在有限客觀條件下應該做的 事。
（二）專家的難以掌握
研究者與專家的關係僅建立在電子郵件與電話的往來上，難免社會網絡 的連結顯得薄弱。且研究者基於研究的立場，也不方便去干涉專家們的生活 與工作行程，出現問卷回收的延遲、暫時性的失聯等等是難以避免的。而專 家的難以掌握，也導致本研究在研究時程上的拖延，以至於壓縮到後續的研 究進行，特別是在災害識覺問卷的研究上，導致問卷的擬定與搜集不夠完 全，實屬本研究的遺憾。
（三）災害識覺問卷的代表性問題
承接第二項研究限制，本問卷的制定與搜集時間不足，在抽樣方法上僅 能運用最省時間、省成本的「便利抽樣」進行調查。雖然仍能搜集到一定數 量的樣本數，但畢竟無法達到隨機抽樣方法上的樣本代表性。加上本問卷的 抽樣母體數目龐大，也無建立隨機抽樣所需的母體清冊，僅能透過非隨機抽 樣的方法來進行。因此本問卷的調查結果，是否與母體狀態相同？又相似程 度有多少？都是本研究難以掌握的課題。
（四）社會脆弱性分數意義背後的深度推論難度高
本研究雖然可以得知新竹市地區哪些指標的得分高，哪些得分低，但若 要進一步去探究「為什麼？」的難度相對的高。本研究的研究結果是數據，
基於實證的精神，不疑針對數據去做過多的推論。雖然本研究有進行災害識 覺的問卷，但能解釋與推論的範圍也僅限於災害識覺、調適行為等等的項目 中。其餘項目尚需要更多資料的搜集，甚至必要的質化研究，才可得出較深 入的推論結果。
二、研究建議
基於以上研究限制，本研究提出以下幾點研究建議：
（一）增加研究的時間
在研究者本身的時間規劃、經濟狀態、研究目的考量上，可視研究者狀 態調整研究時間，將研究期程拉長，以避免問卷回收延遲，並獲得較多的問 卷擬定與搜集時間。
（二）調查問卷的抽樣方法改變
對於本研究當中「災害識覺問卷」此類給予一般民眾調查問卷，應利用 群集抽樣方式進行，此方法適用於母體數過大，但可以將母體分類的情形下 使用。以本研究為例，我們可以依照行政區域將新竹市分為北區、東區、香 山區，再依照各區的人口比例制定最適合的抽樣樣本數。如此可降低問卷代 表性的問題。
（三）適時加入質化研究或歷史脈絡的研究
量化研究要做深入的推論較為困難，因此可以做個別深度探究的質化研 究的重要就被突顯出來了。因此本研究建議，在研究期程允許的情況下，可 針對某些項目或指標進行質化的深度訪談，以探求居民對該指標項目的一些 細部想法，有效幫助後續的深入推論。或者，某些指標的發展如人口等等，
可能具有較久遠的歷史脈絡。因此，也可以透過歷史脈絡的梳理，了解某些 指標特別高或特別低的原委，使整份研究的內容更趨完整。
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附件（一）
本問卷包含以下部分：
一、基本資料
二、模糊德爾菲法問卷說明 三、初擬評估指標項目
二、模糊德爾菲法問卷說明 三、初擬評估指標項目