台灣地區各區域人口遷移與就業關係之研究

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(1)-'mr. ='.JL1I.fim~B9.l\V~*. -" .~m5tB9J!1L~H!~M. [!9,~. tilfU. !. ~~~~.~m~~~~~.~~._r·~~~~M·~~~~~.~~~~ iiT.~~i1@ 0 ,"U1~~11f~~' ~~¥~.r6J~• • AQ~JJl3 • •*~31bJ{U·. :a ·. ~.:E~~~.o. fi~*lbn31b • •*~Ib~H~'_~~.~·*lbn~31b~~~~.*~~ r6J~~. (Clark & Gertler. 1983. pp.18-34) ; ~*I.' ~.~~~II!11f~.' ~~ ftIl~wr.7*~.*U • m~trr.Ui: (ho~holds) ~m.~1:.AQJitiit~.*~* (. Lendent. 1978, pp.537 538) 1t~jff-.Ui:~m1t*Ib-mtt~~fil~fi~¥~~:5!~ m!f&oPflj!~~~. • :flll : !E*IIiUi:~.~ , • • IIiUi:~:iI.~~ISl~Jij(*4 .. :i1!• • *~~. Smith,198!, pp. 69 -70) ; !il~~ Verdoom's 1!J{U : 1Ii~~~)E,* 0. *lbn.. (. ~~~m~~lba~~~~~IIi*Ib~A.lba~~~~m.~~o~~,~*~~* ~IIiAQ~§~~1Jll$;f{I~. J{1J*)&AQ~:tt1t~1Jn~~~.~~~~m~j!~~. 0. Borts. Stein ( 1964 ) ~.1lI~* : ~jff-.Ui:~.~m1t*Ib-mtt~~fil~ • tk:)ET iii ~¥~~~OOm!f&'AQ~JJl3£~.T.~*~Jitiit;£m~T~~.~oAQ.3 !iit.*31b~;tfl!L~• •:a~~.. wood ( 1975 ) lIP ~. · tB~mHrr1:. • :flll : Muth ( 1968. 1971). .. Green. 0. !U'~IIi~IIi~Jitiit. ' lI1f;f{IH1iJf:1EBmm : ~1976 -19781FlW~ • lIi~m~.A Q }£iit$ • ~:flll Williamson ( 1965 ) ~.llIm~ : IIi~OO£ie ' B~I!I~~11f~Jitiit. r6J~iT (Wn. 1987. pp.12 13) ; @.9"~;f{IH1iJf:1EtBmm : IIi~OO£ie~¥~m!f& ~~tIj~£ie~1JIl-iI!ltP-~1Jn~%J:\ • ~4~7t~¥Sf!~£ie~1Jn~jfjj.Jt~ifJJ u % J:\ (Amos. 1988. pp.549 - 566) ~jfjj • IlP~ • •~IIiIli~~£ieB.r6J~. • ~:a ~lW~.~;f{IH.llIm~·~¥~*M£iemfl~1Jn~.~·Mfl • • • • • • o 0. ". jJll**.JI!!.jJllWf~P.Jflljftt'l. 0. ""*~I~.~~~~~~~.~o.

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(18) ·.~~*~~Ao.#~• • • •ZM~. (~). a#o~~,~~~~~oo~'.~.~=~~.z~.V~'fi~~~~~~~AQ. ~.~.~~.H~'~W~.~nV~o. , ~~'1IAQ.A ' etJ1!ir~~)I':~~V~mAI:tJ~ : ~A Q.AJt.~.*H~~.~~gt~:IIlInzl«i~ ; .~~~V~.~1tISTlrtl~~~£ ~ ~ , &tl«i~~~oo~ , 1tISrtr{t~~il~~'1IA ' :ij.\tPJ-".~~v~~_zm. (3)~j(\!n.~.V~oo~. 0. tt.. <D;. 0. mbtJf*JU4~~z.. • ~~• • liIf~~lJ..(tt.~AQ~JfM'fIJ..(.ft (Clark & Gertler. 1983, p.18) , Jf*~IU.~UIUf• • ftIIM~Rl~~tt.~:iI:lJD (Todaro. 1989) f1;lilii • ~Jf*JfM~z.~~~r·*liIf~lJ..(tt.:iI:lJD.~ • •ft° 0. 1ttt=jCIl!QHt~.ilii~. <ID :. ~. 0. Clark & Gertler ( 1983 ) .Greenwood ( 1978) ,Greenwood. Hunt. &Mc.Oowel1 ( 1986 ) ~ Greenwood. & Hunt ( 1984 ). ~. 0. @: • •ttAo.#~• •Rl~~~.Il~~.mfit~·. .ffl]i~.~ • •. ,ltn!b.ffi=#iiJftti•. ; f1;lilii' fO'itA. O.#~i1I.-nfi~~tt.:iI:bil~i1I.-nfi~. • tb"?HlIJ~fi~Jm./J'lf-ntt;-M'lltilii*~mW.:R:.-nfi.~ • RP:ti-M'llt• •Z .• ~bt-.JtW.:R:.-nfi~~-M'llt ' JiUt:ti=IIIfBt./j,lf-nt'! (2SLS. two-stages least square) ,=.IIIfBt.,j'lf-nfR ( 3SLS. three - stages least square ) ~Jt?tJf~.::k'U~aR ( FIML, full infonnation maximmn likelihood) ::::l!I-nt'! : Jtrp • 3SLS ~-M'~{tI~2SLS ~-M'lltm:.ffllt •• ~8111J!. ~ ••...t • 3SLS It.A:ti~*tl ; ilii3SLS ~ FIML .ffllt. ' =#~-M'lltm:~:%.ffllii} • ffi3SLS ~.~. FIML 1Jl-fJ! (Judge, etc. 1988) ® : mbtW.:R:.-nfi~.m!~-M'llt~.~tJ*~ ( &tt~ t m. ' t - ratios ) R;I~jli~bt'*. ( approximately nor mal) • f1;lJlt • t m:R~~llt• • ~1!f~.Jl/Hti. (Chirst.1966,p.598)0 f1;lilii ' Greenwood ( 1978) • • : btW.:R:.-nfi.m!-M'lltlJ;f • il10%~ • • f£**RPiiJ <ID : 'tUI~1iI76~ r•• ~~iiiirIIH.llt. J mlll?t~l!!ll!l'HI!t • •m!. : (l)~-nJf.m! : 1J..(1t(.~-nt;f:tiJf• • JtiitHt.f4~~. ; i15IJIt • :it.~~.Jifi.~lAffl:J~JJI.Jf.?t;fJi ilii?tfltbtJt.m~~ • li::ktlliitHtbtA.o rplC.'1<J.9~~:Jtk~ (2)tllrtl*1Jm! : 1::~llfirp '1tffl*}]."\if.~~. (3)~.Jf.~ : Jl:tJjI.it~~•• ::ktllflll.1I9~fltAJf•• :lJDl<J.liU1~ •• Jl!tIlPiJifi~I.Jb\M# (4)tllrtrt'tf¥.im! : bt1::~llfirp I &:,.1tffl.Jtttf¥.if£~*JJ • .tt.fi1J• • WI.tI!m~itif4 't'tf¥.i,&JlIU&# 0. 0. Q. Q. 0. 0. o. .JI!t.~~?t.,ltU.§IHm~.mffi. :. ~ • •~lAiiiir~iitllt • • JI!t.~?t.. -- Jtg:ip~--~--'--~-ii~*JJ~--r. *"... ~.Jf.m!~ _rtrt'tf¥.il!. it.la. E"iIIllHUl.la* -~-~-,1----]~--2 _M*:fi:* 2 Rl;t;(:nll.* it.MM. 1. 3 4. 1. *tt• .Ia. ~~£••lii.. 3 4. =.. ~~.. i!;.~])t"P. 5 .IlJ.~*. 6 mIlJ• .Ia*. 7 flJJ'Ulllii.. JfM*_:Il!• • • • ~~iiiir~iit~.. 1 2. 3 4. it•• ~. ~*£... 1. 2 3 4. .fIA. .~m.ftM.. *"IMftJt..

(19) @:w~~•• #~m*. ••-~~~~m.~~~~~~.ftW~·.m~4"~m.~~~~~~~ft;. ltftl:f1;k • Jm.jR~m.~/fII~~:fr.<F W.AQiI#ITil1f • Jt!liiI.ElJA Q ~~Jllfl~~.A ( gross im - or : 0. out - migration ) • • 1JIjlj~.1ftW~ • IP GCj;. (i I Gii/G.j-Gi.YG •• I )/2 i-1. Jt<F • GCj "W.IB~lt ' O:S;;GCj:S;;1 ;. Gij" i"III~~.A ( lfl ) AQ. ;. G.j "~II:~.~.A ( lfl ) AQ. ;. Gi." i II:~AQ. ;. G•. "~III~.AQ. ;. n"~II:.H]. 0. ... CGj.....l ' :1iiRAQ ~~ilA ( lfl ) .<F»t~.~1I: ;. CGj-Q • :1iiRA Q ~~.A ( lfl ) ~1ft»t*1JI~1I: 0 D. M::tat '<FX${;f: l.j!~iI • ~1I70¥' ~ft~I.1t~ • • • M~.&t.Z."l!• • ~lfm"tlWfUl· <F9Hjlf~l!it· 53-78Ji 2.*~.· ~1I76¥ • • • ~ilI.1tIt• •~.AQl!.z.~.· • •"tlWd!jG.¥fiJ, 15. 3.#• • • ~1I67¥ • • •iiNjf;attIW~§lRUU& :. 42Ji. tt*••attIW~1Ut~tJT • • • •fT"tlWiIf~~. 4.~~$; • ~1I67¥ ' "tIW§l~ , JiJf1*~IIG~I.&.JtZ.iIf~ • <F9i!:iIf~1!it. 5.".... ' ~1I67¥ • • •~IiI.~il'/UJ§lJt-. 6.atll. ' Ni1l74¥ • • •~II..:lft.§l~.I./iI&'MUiZ.iIf. 7.• Xli:. • ~1I80¥ • lI::!\lattIW§l~• •:lft• • 1ft~*l!.~iIf~-W. • • ~II:"iJ!I • • • •fT*fiJ 113 -17. 6Ji 8.ltllt« • ~1I69"F ' • • • • • ~~ • • • r'~~.AQ# .. Z.iIf~ • <FJ!*• • •iltIWiIf~JiJfliJ{±"x. '::'~X.{;f:. l.AlOl18O, W., ( 1~80 ) Five Bell Shapes in Development. Paper of the Regional Science Association, pp.5. 16.. 2. Amos Jr. 0.. ( 1988 ) Unbalance Regional Growth and Regional Income Inequality in the Latter Stages of Development. Regional Science and Urban Economics, pp.549-566. 3.8orts G. and J. Stein ( 1964 ) Economic Growht in a Free Market. Columbia University Press. 4. Casrtti, E .• ( 1984 ) Verdoorn Law and the Components of Manufacturing Productivity Growth: a Theoreti cal Model and an Analysis of US Regional Data. in A. Anderson.etc. ed. ( 1984) .Regional and Industrial Development Theories, Model and Empirical Evidence. pp.296-302. 5.CheneryH.• ( 1979) Structural Change and Development PoIicy.Oxford University Press.. 6.aark. G. andM. Genter. (1983) Migration and Capital. Annals of the American Geographers. pp.18 34.. 7.Greenwood. M .• G. Hunt. and J. McDowell. ( 1986 ) Migration and Emoplyment Change: Empircal Evi dence on the Spatial and Tempoal Dimensions of the Linkage. Jonrnal of Regional Science, pp.223 - 234. 8.Greenwood. M. and G. Hunt. ( 1984) Migration and Interregional Employment Redistribution, The Ameri can Economic Review. pp. 957 - 969 • 9.Creenwood. M., ( 1975 ) Simultaneity Bias in Migration Models: an Empirical Examination, Demography, pp.519- 536. 10.Hayami. Y. and V. W. Ruttan. ( 1985 ) Agricultural Development. The Johns Hopkins University Press. I1.Ho. S •• ( 1979 ) Decentralized Industrialization and Rural Development: Evidence from Taiwan. Economic Development and Cultural Change. pp.77 - 96. 12.Judge. G. ( etc. ) • ( 1988) Introduction to the Theory and Pmctice of Econometrics. John Wiley & Sons..

(20) ..... ·.:lI!!.JI: *1iI.A 0 lI#J4it• • ~z.iIf~. (291 ). 13.Kawashima. T., ( 1971 ) Urban Productin Fuction and Urban Agglomeration. Unpubilsh Dissertation of Re gional Science of University of Pennsylvania. 14.Ledent. J .• ( 1978) Regional Multiplier Analysis: a Demometric Approach. Environment and Planning A, pp.537 560. 15. Maddala. G. • ( 1977 ) Econometrics. McGraw - Hill Book Company.. 16.Muth. R.F•• (1971) Migration: Chicken or Egg? • Southern EconomicJournaI. 295-306.. 17.Muth, R.F.• ( 1968) Differental Growth among Large U.S. cities. in Paper in Quantitative Economics. Quirk, ]. and A. Zarley. The University Press of Kansas. 18.Richardson. H. W., (1973) Regional Growth Theory. The Macmillan Press Ltd . . 19.Rodwin L. and H. Sazanami, ( 1991 ) Industrial Change and Regional Economic Transformation. Harper Collins Academic. 2O.SASlETS user's Guide, Version 5, SAS Institute Inc. 21. Simon, ]., ( 1977 ) The Economics of Population Growth, Princetion University Press.. 22.Todaro, M.P., (1989) Economic Development in the Third World, Longman Inc.. 23.Todaro. M.P .• ( 1969 ) A Model of Labor Migratiom and Unemlopment.American Economic Review, pp.l. 38-148. 24. Wu. J . H .• ( 1987 ) Optimal Regional Growth and Public Investment Models : Theory and Application to the Efficiency- Equity Issne in Taiwan. Unpubilsh Dissertation of City apd Regional Planning of University of Pennsylvania.. n (l)A 0 B<JJlJlI#1t lfI. 0. ••r:J2EM.Mr:JraJl. ~fIH'4!."fIHlp.1f.Ii'i.~""B<JJl5{:UU!T· lIAAItJ4l1lf1AItz.~ ; !t~-l3.A.-l3l1. *iIf~l;(li:ff..-Wl (61-65' 66-70' 71-75) '~:JJ:Wl"" • •i'PIi'i.B<JAoJlJlI#1t 0 .*4*• • •. • :lI!!.Jl:A 0 ~UtJ4 • •1!l A 0 ~tt-. 0. (2).:liU~' .:=..~"it" • •B<JJI:fJll1t. t\fIf*• •i'PIi'i..ift.J4.:=..!l• •flJl:fJllB<Jit..... ; t!Ut,. It.. B<J#i.PJ I;(TifUt1fifill1f.1!r"f:1 ' *.B<J;lJJ!Ji'¥{Ut-'fI;( • • • *iIf~n:?HjIJI;(60 - 65 ' 65 -70J470 -75:ff. .ift.,.:=..!l.B<J;lJJ!Ji'.~~IItB<J~.·m• • ~.,.:=..!l.it .....B<JJI:fJllIt·.*4*• • • ~:lI!!.. Jl:I....1fifill1f.1!r° ~fIf*• •i'PIi'i..1ft".':='.~• •flB<Jtt. . . . :. (3).1l. ,.:=..!l.WlfJJit......1t. ... 1:!iI.Ilt • IttB<J#i:JJ:. !)J;I;(I;(I....1fifill~.1!r"f:1 • *.B<J;lJJ!Ji'¥~It-'fI;(.t • *iIf~n:?tjIJI;(60 '6~7O:ff..1ft. ' .:=..~. B<J.J!Ji'¥~~IIt·m• • ~.,=.~. (4)• •#tfAo. WlfJJit..It°.~* • • • ~:lI!!.Ii'i.I ....1fifill~.1!ro. -AiB<J#i• • •Ao#tf*B<J1Jt!;ffTJlJ':='8 ("'• •. fi!.tilI67:ff.' pp.83 84.). \A)p; = ( LI •• - 1 * g + Ll.t-1 - LI.' ) ILl". (a)p; = g g.. (e)p; = (gz - g. ). 12. 1t"f:1 'g= .AoJil-F!$. g. = • • §UIJ:fJ Jil-F!*. gz= ~~• • ~.:fJJil~*. L,=."~.:fJ. t = llijirdt • tt-:JJ:Wl p;=."Ao#tf$ *iIf~n1*(e)t!#i• • •"Ao. 0. fi1J.l;(li:ff..-Wl • #i.lfItt-.WlB<J.~o#tf$. '~..t$JIIIlB<J •. • ~.Aolt· RPllUtWlB<J.t4U~"Aolt. Q. .~*.!)J;• • •:lI!!.Ii'i.Ao~tt-• • •~Ao~tt-. 0. tf£1Jt!B<JlIffl..t • ;ffT~mtHt • RP : • •Ao (L,) .~~ • •Ao (L.) mJil7.B<JAolt (La).

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