能源作物之國外推動經驗與國內發展展望(上)

(1)

8 1997 (Kyoto Protocol) 2005 6 20 (35 ) (21.2 ) (6.9 ) (23.4 ) (13.5 ) (11,477 ) 41 67 53 192 ( ) 1973 1980 911

(2)

2005 12 64 8 70 ( ) 1880 290 ppm 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 ԃ ੃ ຤ ໆ ! ) ࿤ Ϧ ޚ * 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ౢ ࠔ ሽ ਱ ! ) ཥ Ѡ ჾ ! ϡ 0 Ϧ ϲ * ًҔؓݨ੃຤ໆ ਮݨ੃຤ໆ :6คႉؓݨሽ਱ ଯભਮݨሽ਱ ୯ሞਮݨሽ਱ ୯ሞғ፦ਮݨሽ਱ ୯ሞଚᆒሽ਱ ၥਟپྛȈငᔼഋ૖ྛ׋Ȃݶቋၥଉᆓ౩ᇄϷݙفಛ-૖ྛಛॎၥਟ (ਯ૖ܚ)

Ɏ ҡ፴਼ݶቋਿ୤ՃFuel Ethanol & Biodiesel Report, Vol. 2, Issue 18, Oil Price Information Service ୽ሬନᆠቋਿ୤ՃEthanol Price Risk Management, 2005 Fuel Ethanol Workshop, Chicago Board of Trade (2005) ୽ሬ਼ݶቋਿ୤ՃCalifornia Energy Commissionಛॎၥਟ(www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/)

ԃ੃຤ໆ! ) ࿤Ϧޚ* ౢࠔሽ਱!)ཥѠჾ!ϡ0Ϧϲ* ୯ሞਮݨሽ਱ ୯ሞғ፦ਮݨሽ਱ ୯ሞଚᆒሽ਱ ˈ˄ˁ˄ ˆ˅ˁˋ ˊˁˆ ˄ˁˆ ˊˁˈ ˃ ˄˃ ˅˃ ˆ˃ ˇ˃ ˈ˃ ˉ˃ فई ໾੥ ு౨࿇ሽ ֚ྥ௛ ֽԺ࿇ሽ ֺ ෷ ʸ 2004 380 ppm 8 (UN-FCCC) 1997 (Kyoto Protocol) 2008 2012 1990 5.2% 22 2 0 0 4 98.0% 2.0% 51.1% 2004 450 (45 ) 4,000 32.8% 7.5% ( ) 7.3% 1.3%( ) (1) , , , , , (2) ( R D F ) ( B i o -diesel) (Bio-ethanol)

(3)

3 (2) (3) 20-30% (4) 44 (5) 2. (Glycine max) 23% 3-4 3. ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (Ipomoea batatas) 43-49 23% 150 (Manihot esculenta) (1) (2) (3) (4) 20-40% (Saccharum officinarum) (1) 12-15% (2) C4 ( ) 33 (3.3 ) 45-52% ( ) (1) (2) ( ) (3) ( ) (4) (1) (2) (3) (4) 1. (Miscanthus sinensis) (1)

(4)

2005 12 64 10 (Sorgum bicolor) (1) 60-80 (2) 18% (3) 4.5-6 (4) 1/3 (5) 4 (6) 4. ( ) ( B i o - e t h a n o l ) ( B i o -diesel) ( ) (1) ( ) (2) ( ) (transesterification) ( ) 1. ((Bio-ethanol) (Gashol) (Gashol) 10% 20% 25% (CO) 20 30% (CO₂) 25% (1) (2) ~ 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 ԃ ౢ ໆ ! ) ࿤ Ϧ ޚ * ғ፦ଚᆒ ғ፦ਮݨ ~ 4% ~ 6% Ⴃ՗ଚᆒڗжًؓ ؓݨໆϐКٯ ୯ሞૈྍᐒᄬ(IEA) ਥᏵӚ୯ғ፦ଚᆒࡹ ฼௢ෳϐว৖ᖿ༈ ~2900࿤Ϧޚ(2003) ~180࿤Ϧޚ (2003)

(5)

(3) (Flash point) ( ) 1931 2 5% 1966 10% 1981 20% 1993 22% 2002 25% 1973 1975 20% 1979 1984 94.4% 1991 20 24% 1995-1996 126 76% ( 95%) 24% 97-98% 1997 0.06% 2000 0.69 % 2 0 0 3 6.9% 8 2003 3 2004 2 5 2003 10% 4~5% 100 50 62 465 ( ) ( ) 1978 230-3200 (60 480 ) 2003 10 190 (50 ) 2004 ( ) E10, E85 1338 2004 17 E22, E100 1510 1975 E10 365 -E5 190 2004 E5 28 2007 E10 E3, E10 12 1983 2004 14.9

(6)

2005 12 64 12 1993 5% 70 130 13 520 (13,700 ) 1 9 8 9 9 5 0 ( 2 4 4 ) (cocodiesel) 2. (Bio-diesel)( ) (methyl ester) (1) (2) (3) (4) 100 10 ( ) (Sodium methoxide) ( ) 63 2 100 10

(7)

(1) (cetane number) (2) (renewable) (Biodegradable) (3) (Flash point) 118 ( 52 ) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (Carbon cycle) ( ) (9) (10) (FDA) (EPA) 1994 22 1997 70 58 85% 150 5% 1991 19 52 1996 500 8,000 1996 ( ) 29 400 2005 5% 1992 136,000 1999 2300 2002 3,000 1970 1980 1992

(EPACT, Energy Policy Act)

1993 ( 760 ) ' ' (clean diesel) 0.05 % 40 1993 7.6~9.5 / 2.5~2.65 / 1995 (U.S. DOE) 2004 1% (One penny) 2005 400 200 1,000 250 80% 110 /

(8)

2005 12 64 14 2010 3 5% 2010 100~300 2015 200~600 2020 300~900 2010 10 2020 15 2010 74 2015 85 2020 103 1.4% 77 8.5 7.9 CO₂ 22.5 2004 10 3,000 10,000 ( ) 60o_C 30min 10 min ( ) 30min ( ) ( ) ( ) (1) (2) (3) 24 (4) 1998 5 26-27 (1) (2) (3) ( 4 ) ( 5 ) (6)