美國經濟與政治支持關係的計量分析

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(1)~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. ;g GSr. C• •IIl!l.it5i1f::;r'~iilt5i1f::l!(). ~. ~BI~ • •~":l~-fR(2~~~;iaml_<R~. I ~,~. ~\\!S. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. ". ... 41 ( 1~«) .tIl-DI\!!~IUiJ:t'I:li~l!l!t-.tIl-· .w~\l!I!11+<~~:t:~:tfl.~~ ~ ~~~!:JS~DI\!!\l!I!11I!Jl.(::tfl~~~~~ " ~~.~~'H!~~~l±i~ :tfllfJ~~iI!l" I!l{+H.~~B:tflii£DI\!!tnl~$~l!\l!i.~:t:f!lII(-H€:{rr " e •• 4 .. ~~~!:JSlf.ilK.:t'I:li~l!l!t-{W!~!/!tm~~1I " ~ 1~~1Il1~9~ .~In 8 !B-n-~~~-l<~l!l!t-.tIl-~-<Ic:'-n:<liifi~~:tfl~~*·~ ~~~~~~-l<$~ • .w+<f\l1;Q-n-«~ ~ ~~mltl±i'~ {!]~:tfl.~~-\lR($ .. ~~~~!/!tm~l!l!t-.tIl-~~~!:JS~~:tfl~~C~-<Ic:'-n:<~~~~~*~) ~$~.~~~ ~.mltl±i~~,,~~~~~~,{!]~.~. l±i~~"~ii£~*mltl±i«~"@*~~W~~~~~!:JS~~$-n:<~:tfl~."~$-n:<~~*~~~~~C~:t'I:li~l!l!t-~~.~l!l!t-). J,J111. lie Cohen, Richard E., -Economic Theme Song", National Journal, Nov.14, 1981, pp.2884.. 118 *1I:m.$(.d~-=rilll National Journal, October 24, 1981, p.2660.. I!@ I ~K<lt C/i. I ~4Jlllt~i\I) lii'~~t1'-1 :mi$.~ 0 i$.~.1Elii'~~.".-<llI{t\'iiaa;:m••_" Douglas A. Hibbs, Jr. /i. Nicholas Vasilatos. '" ~~ Michael B. MacKuen lIE~fi§::mE.".ia1~!4IGt... ~.l~a••H*fil(~_." ~ Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr. ~ Nicholas Vasilatos, "Macroeconomic Performance and; Maas Political Support in the United States and Great Britain'" in ContemPorary Political Economy, ed. by Douglas A. Hibbs, Jr., et. al., (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company, 1981), pp. 31-48. MacKuen, Michael B., "Political Drama, Economic Conditions, and the Dynamics of Presidential Popularity", American Journal of Political Science, May 1983, Vol. 27, No.2, pp.165-192. ~~~~~~$~~~~~~.~$.

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(3) ~~~{ni:~::\lf;~~~~" ~g.f.tll -F!.\J-F!.!l:l-+ 1~ ~ fl;h~-<I!!1I(.~~-:B1~~ ~ ~~li.E:~1'-~~~:IDfS~-l(~lJ(~l1l 1$1!mtl=\5i <> m<1'->+11~.~lX::liE::m}l-~ ~ 1a:'I$!.~r<~~.JtlX~1'-~Q1Itt\ll~1r@1'->111 '. ~ gr$1Il1li\~~ti~Ml1K+. ~m<\II!!l1-K.~ ~. +11$1!mtl=\5i. 0. gr$1Imtl=\~ ~ @l!~Ill.~$.~fg!~:ID~~t¥<!. ~ ~{ni:mjQ~JIi!t\~HII~~-:B1~!lElllllill!i!R.~_rm~!l- e~~ (Michoel B. MacKuen). 1lI1$1.~ (individual-level survey data) .. ~.l\i}gli.E:~mjQ~lIl:.{@:~~~.liil@: O!~Hll!:mjQlEE:.~jgI~-Kilt\tJm~S~-H-'~~~.~. 0. :IDS~~.1~.~~~~:ID\II!!l1.~$.~-~tl=\.~ti.~~~~~ • • • ~~.~~8~$.~.~.~.~~~ • • 08 ~~~~¥\~.f.tll $i:ID~$1i'<~tKi:II:H" ~. ~~{~~IEE:.m< .. g~~$.~ • ~~r<tK~-H-~~-1~ ••• ~$.~ (:I1.{i.~iC!l«~ ~).~S~::\lf;~ • • ~{ni:~ • • ~~.~·Ia:'Wffi.~-H-~ • • ~.~~@ OR~18~~4ft-<$t.:ID~S~ • • mjQJm~liiliE:oi\t~S~~~:a~.ffil@IiE: • • • ~ll!\l1-<~~::\lf;~~~ • • o@~.fiil@:$l • • Jm~i!li\~.~$;-l(~ (~~~$(~~.f.tl~)~htti$ ~ g~~~~.~I@:~~.~-H-~ 1$1~-1~II.(_.. r~~-~s ~::\lf;J tK~-lH~i~:a:ID~~.•~~~~ r ~$mjQ.~ o@~.f.tl~IiE::ID.~-H- .. l~H~l~l\i}gli.E:.~~I@::ID{w... tJ{~IEE:..8!~~m![_~ .~ (aggegated time-series data) ~.~ ~ ~.l\i}gli.E:{W$~iM~~~.~. (ti~li.E:~~) ~I$(~~::\lf;·"@ig~mjQlEE:..-<~OO. we. tit@). W@) tit® WiISl. Gallup O/linion Index, A"g"" 1980. pp.24-26.. qKiewiet D. Roderick aod Douglas Riven, -The Economic Basis of Reagan's Appeal", in The Ne'll1 Direction in American Politics,. ed. by loho B. Chubb and Paul B. Peterson, (Washington, D. C. : Brookings Institutiol\., 1985). p.79. MacKuen, Michael B., oP. cit., pp.174-176. lS.ft .. Chappell and Keech, op. cit; p. 16. Marcus, Gregory B•• and Philip E. Converse, -ADynamic Simultaneous Equation Model of Electoral Choice", in American Political Science Rnif1fl1, December, 1979, Vol. 73, No.4. pp. 1055-1070. 'SS!I!$ Page, Benjamin 1., and Calvin C. lones, -Reciprocal Effects of Policy Prefereoces. Party Loyalties and the Vote," American Political Science Rniew, December, 1979. Vol. 73, No.4. pp. 1071 -1089.. .\JH:J. iiIii@ .Ji8~iIlCD!!..:mIW;:a~i;l~••~~r<.lM" miXK-.ft:5iili" .lM!1?L\e!~~K-D!! Cfunder-specification) 0 "~K-D!!\irfl'dlM~• • • •:m$iii.ti ••:m (biased) "1ii:l!!.'.II!l.lM.~ 0 IIBl Pindyck, Robert S. and Daniel L. Rubinfeld, Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, and Edition, (New York: McGraW-Hill Book Company, 1981), pp. 128-130. iiIii@ l!:.ftHibbs, op. cit.. p. 35. Bloom, Howard S•• and H. Douglas Price, -Voter Response to Short-Run Economic Conditions: the Asymmetric Effect of Prosperity and Recession", American Political Science Review, December 1975. Vol. 69, No.4. pp.11240-1254. ~~~~~~~~~E~~~.~~.

(4) ~~~~~. ~~~. ~~~. ~~~~M~. 0. 0. 0. JtlK. l@: ~ mi Dl)lIlHtlO @ 1l':!i:IUii " ~ti (John E. Mueller) @ 1~~O-ltt-:lii${f! .. l;lltH$~~.~:lii~t\ll1 t~"~liHt~ " tl?J.~'!t~:I!~" .~~ ~~$;~fWi511:11~ ~ ~i511~:/it!~:lii--<J.E-~*1" lFl~"l!r~~"l!r~!fi!!~mW 1~\l!lIIllfl!.\:lii~':::Jll<~ ~1lI!*E (Samuel Kernell) J.E-l@:1~ o ~~~M'~!J(tE-~mWi\t~.~~~.~.4a:m~~ .. .l1ilf~:e:~~':::JIK~" J.E-JIIilf~~~:liii\t~.~~$;~fWtE~{w:lii~~1P{ ~.'h(~\N.~i~~'1I " @ l!\!tIfa..Lj .. ~~:lii~m~-ltt-t&~ .. lii'~mW llJl-!III~:lii:ll$\ .. re.H{~~:lii.~~~Iii'~~~ Cl~I~~~mW~~" .~:lii.~~$;~{W~{DEIii'~~.~:lii~tIlD ~~~~.~~tf. ~~~6tj:i~~i#~".!:H~~~~..Lj~~J.E-:$" ~tj:ifi~ 1..Lj.tj:i .. ~l1!:{1ii'~ii\~.~:lii~t\ll1n!! (tAUI:::i!f~) ~ 1XlFl~~tj:i.~~~:\llli "lE$~tj:i.~~;oJ[:lii~t\ll m~ilf~~-m .. ~l1!:{~~~tj:i~~ :lii:\llli.~~ru~.~W·~:/it!*:/it! • •~tj:i.~:lii~~"~~~~~ • • ~J.E-.·~tj:i • • :lii.t\ll~".*.~o@W • • •~ :lii~fW..Lj .. it~~~~it~tE-~r<~i:::Jll<~-·-eilf~iii\.~.mlii'~+Ill!~:lii~.~-m:j(~ll<!g\$S~· @ ~M'~r<.~-Er:lii{DE_ "@~ilf~r<ll<_~ .. ®~it~Iii'~r<ll<_~~iii\:j(~~~~~~,,~ • • • • ~o~.~~it~~~~~:m.~·:j(• • ~ll<~~.*l*.~:lii~ ... &~• • ·.~~ • • ,.~~l1!:{~. ~.'~<Iii'~~~R:liiM* • • o&*.~~:lii*.--<.*~=" • • ~.~~~W~~~:lii~r<'*~i511.,~-m~**~ ~~~I-ltt-~~~~~~~~i#:lii~~'iii\~~ • • ~-mI-ltt-:lii~$~*-ltt-:lii~m,~~.~~--«~.~)~l!\!tI • • ~~:lii~$ o.*• • ~.~*_~~~~~:lii• • oi#~ • •~M'~.~~=:lii~~~~.~ r~~~.--<i# • • • • ~~..Lj:lii~ • • •. iIiIiI@. iIii@. iI@. 1IitI@. iIiIiI@. iI®. iI@. C. ot*. q Fiorina, Morris P•• RetrosPective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981). Mueller John: E., "Presidential Popularity from Truman to lohnson", American Political Science Reoiew, March, 1970. Vol. 64, No.1, PP.18-34. Kernell, Samuel, "Explaining Presidential Popularity", American Political Science Review, June 1978, Vol. 72, No.2, PP. 506-522. Alt, lames E•• and 1<. Alec Chrystal, Political Economics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1983), P. 171. ~.\!i" Hibbs, Douglas A., Jr•• "Economic Outcomes and Political Support for British Governments among Occupational Classes: A Dynamic Analysis", American Political Science Review, lune, 1982, Vol. 76, No.2, 259-279. q .. Chappell and Keech, op. cit; p. IS. ~.\!i .. Stimson, lames A., "Public Support for American Presidents: A Cyclical Model", Public Opinion Quarterly, 1976, Vol. 40, No.1, pp. 1-21. .. Hibbs and Vasilatos, op. cit., pp.35-36. ilililtal q. .k. r. 'sd.

(5) r~1t. ... t!~~~~J ;t;~~~~'S*'~{(. ~~~~~R~.~.~.*~*.~o. ••. -.¥.~l.~e••• ~~.~~ •• -~s*~ •• *~ •• w~~~~~ •• ~~.~~ •• o~~~ ~~* .• •• ~·~*~~.*•• ~W~~~~~ •• ~~.~o~~~~~ *.~.W~ •• *~~~~~-~~~••. ~~~. • "' 1*. 0. 1.~~*~~II!t$!". ~~~nl:{t$!~~~t!tltl~{glf;g. (prospective) ~~@!~ltl~~~ (retrospective). £t« r•• -~~~~J ~$I.~:!£i • •*·!Ilf\'i~~~1Il!K~+< - et$!Il(.-N~~~.:l:ti:tl:l-jlip~~~.U!-l·- .{Wj.E-1iil' - ~.~ •• ~-jlip~~~$~o~~ •• ~.~.-jlip~~~.~-~B.~.~~.~~~~~~~~~~~~.~-jlip~. ~.~~~~~ 1JE:~fi}~o. ~.il~~~il. *~~~~~~~~o~gt!tltl~~~t$!~~nl:{.~~~~~~~~~~ltl~r~*-~~J~~-~~~~~~~~~~W~. lti~~~~~~~~~-~~.~.+<o~*~ •• ~.~*~$.*.W~~~~~~~~t$!~~.o®~_~nl:{~@!~ti. ~~~*~~~~~~~~-~~~nl:{~~.~~~~~~~Q~.**~~~~~~~~W~~~.~~.~~.o.~nl:{~. - ~ ~~~~~\l!l:~ 1~.~~}§~.~lI!.". -~@!~ltl~ ••*~~.~~~~~.~~-B ••t!tltl~ ••• ~nl:{~~ltl.*~~-~~t$!.~~~W~~~.~0. ~~liR®-~~nl:{~;l;I1~~o. *~~.~nl:{'1+l~~~*~.a*~tW~~~~~~~~. 4itl@ ~.~.:il~.:lf1i11ll!l!l.~1III( Downs. Anthony. An Economic Theory of Democracy. ( New York: Harper aue Row. 1957). ~~• • ( Paul R. Abramson ) ~-<a'M.:il~1e:~.:lf1m;~IX~~.:il~.¥~ 0 IIII( Abramson, Paul A., John H. Aldrich, and David W. Rohde, Change and Continuity in the 1984 Elections [(Washington, D. C.: Congressional Quarterly Inc.. 1986), pp. 163-228. ~~ (lames E. Alt) ~-<~I:~._ialllt'MUial" IIII( Alt and Chrystal, op. cit., pp.153-155, 158-159.. iW® Alt and Chrystal, op. cit., p. 159.. ~~. 1l;I;1~ itl.~..I-\ .. it~li'~l!lIcR~iI:il~I1i!I!S:il@1it~ 0 .!$w,t(tI..I-\ .. t'lt.l!lIcR~." IIII( Miller, Arthur H., ~and Martin P. Wattenberg, "Throwing the Rascals Out; Policy and [Performance Evaluations of Presidential Candidates, 1952-1980," Amer,'can Politicalj Science Review. June 1985, Vol. 79. No.2. pp.359-372.. ~~~~~~~~~.~~~.~~.

(6) ... Q. ~~~~~. ~~~. ~~~. ~E~~M~. •. •• •• .•. .... -. .. .. Q. ••. ~<. 0. ... ~~.Mm~~~~~~o.~~~~$ • • • • IW(W• • • • ~)~ • • ~@.~ g~.IW~~ • • • • • • ~.g~-~.~~ ~ ~ ~.~ ~~ ~~~$~®.E • • ~~ • • ~.~o -.~ l -F!«{lt~I<Im~~W~lmR'l!?O(-1\If'.JIi~11€:{~" ll.bm~.W~:j:\(~• • ~~U1l~~~~11€:{~ - ~~~~j!~ - ~.~ml~~ili\.W~ ~o~~g~~~~~g~~l~<O{lt*~~~ • • • ~~-~~~~~~~.~-~~~~-~~~~.~~~~.W.~ ., W• •-~~+P<:il!;iil;ii • •~~.-lJ:!'l~ ~',i1l.~II1~$'~~!i!Jl~ f~* ( • •:tti) .~:lHI1'!ii\~~~l\I-1i:WJ c--·-.mW~~ ii\• • • • •~~• • • •~~.IIti\E~.4.11 - ~l!!S~imC--·® ~mW[!( ~ll.bm.l~HI[:lH• • •_-FK~g~f'--,.~~~Inll~· (~g• • ~~OJ~~f'--,1i \~:lH!'!W~~!H~"· !'!W~~!.H~l-.W.m--FK'*'Wl-\J~) - .ili\• • • ~.;$;±+P<:il!;~.rt<.c--.@ ~~mW~~~$.t~ • .$f:~~~W.~:lH • • (~.WW~• • •i!r:lH• •) 1*-1\If'.~*c--.® ~m~~~~~o!i!Jl~~~:lH.~~~~~.~~~,~~~~~~~o.~~l~~~~o~~~ • • ~.mW~*.~~ .1!Jl!I~$ ~.g~~.:lH.~~:lK~~~!'!W~~~*D1!:i!r~r<-II~H¥~~~~f'--,~~!~E~l[i!:lH¥i;i!~.~ ® (Henry W. Chappell, Jr.) ~~DE (William R. Keech) .iil;iif'--,E• • ~-l • • • ~~.iR~~~;l.¥i;i!~.~. 1• • • ~~~.iR~ -$~t'f&\.~;g~i\.;:W+P<:il!;~~It.-R.\1f!~.~~~It.-R ® ~~~.w~-:!::!~$~m~~~-<.I1'{p-Hm~~• • .iR.~~~ .~o~~~~~.~.~ ~~o .iR.~~ll.bmK~~mW~~.~~~~.-Ro~~~~-~• • • • ~~~~~~~ • • - ~~~• • !!l4tlIm~~ • • ~~.~.~~+P<:il!;$ • • :lH~-1\If'·· iti1• • • • ~~~~~~~ili~~ ~~ ~*~~~:lH • •~~. Q. tm1bi(li!tljHK*NgK:ii":II~I!Jt~QStIt-RUIII. ~~ .. Ibid... ... ji@ ji®. a_il'. d. itI@ t'.t~i;i ( v. O. Key) :ii.iIi ., e~.IlJ!DI{~ rlll:$~fiaJ .. ~~.DI{*tiTitc:ii._ .. ti.~1¢$ I.W." ~81\K-:l1Ii" ti~.H~IiIiM.l..J.. It 0 ~1lJ!!l!H~~~Ti$tl2{!:-N£, .. ti~.1Iif>Titc*U!!!lW~Wi" *,.iIi~~Titc 0 ~ Key. V. O. Jr.. Politics, Parti,s, and Pr,ssur, Groups,. 5th ed. (Nc:w York; Thomas Y. Crowell Co;. 1964). p.568.. ji® t'.t~_ (Anthony Downs) :ii.iIi"~ Downs. Anthony, op. cit.• o • • •1ia (Morris P. Fiorina) P<ilaf•• ~:iiUUIi\"~ Fiorina. op. cit. 0 flItllt••a!L- .. IlJ!DI{:ii.""'1EI8··1Iif>Titcg~ittc.,. itlS ~~ Hibbs and Vasilatos. op. cit., pp.37-38.. ~.a Ibid .• pp.38-39.. pp. 39-40 (Phillips Curve).md1\-N 0 Iii'~ Baumol, William J., and Alan S. Blinder, Econom itle. tn.. ics: PrinciPI,s and Policy. 2nd ed. (New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich. Inc. 1982). pp.296-303.. 1IiIii® Chappell and Keech, oP. cit., pp.12-14.. ,1 .

(7) \r. ~~~~~~~~~~.~~$~.~~~~~~~~~~o@~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~=~o@W~~~~~~. .. ~~~~~~*~~~~~~~~~l~o~~~~M~~~~~~o~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~l~~~~~~* 0. •. ,. ". ". i. '. 0. ,. ,. ,. ,. -. ",. ,". ~-~~.~~~~.~~~.~W~~~~~.R~.~~~*~N~.~e.~ • • ~.~~~~g.~~ ~o® ':il;::!!m; .~~1W~illl -~~i\~;$;!-lP<~~~.~~illl !!:lDIV<. ~l!:lti'~~~1 ~~~~~~ ••... ~~~ •.•;jtl~~~~' . 1 i\11~-N 1 ) ·~lti'DIV<W~-<S~~¢". ~~~~~~lIllllE::a~~~~iW-lP<~~!f{:!;j!Im~. (~tnflti'~~~~iW-lP<~Il(!It.~ll1~N. ~.~~~~~~~~-lP<~~~.*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~l!:~~~!f{:!~(~~~~~~~4~~~~~~~-lP<~. Kramer) 0. i\~ • • :i,tl~~~ilE:~~*~~ ~ mlj!;!DIV<$!~~~J!lillE:~~~~~C'-·~:ta. !1!1~~~~~B£$!~~~~*l-l~~.:tl±utimjll:l#:;tnfm!~~ ~ lti'~.E~~!iit~~. 0. (9 ~~ -. W. ~.iOOf.~llR ~ 1ii~ • • :i,tl~:W;~$!-<~~~{mj~*I:t~~~~~~-lP<~;I;t{\:!;! (l§15~:t:1~U~W r~~. 0. ) 0$ m§~~ ~ ~'Ug:i,tl~~~~~~~~~*~m1~~~~~-lP<~~~ ~ DIV<*l~~:t:1f1i~ (ecological fallacy)· '''~-<~w.. (Gerald H.. ~~~~-lP<~~~~~I5~~l~~$!-<~~*:ISi~-h>i\ ~. -~$-lP<~J .~~t1:!t4~i¢W). ilil@ IlIll Hibbs, Douglas A., [.Jr•• "The Mass Public and Macroeconomic Performance: The Dynamics of Public Opinion Toward Unempl oyment and Inflation," American Journal of Political Science, November 1979, Vol. 23, No.4, pp. 703-731. Weatherford. M. Step hen, "Economic Voting and the 'Symbolic Politics' Argument: A Reinterpretation and Synthesis," In American Political Sclenc" Review. March 1983, VoL 77, No.1, pp. 158-174. Coombs. (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1980).. .. ilil@ Mackuen, Michael B.. "Social Communication and Mass Policy Agenda." in More Than News ed. by MacKuen, Michael B.• and S.. ililll m:_~_.~S~I~·· (Et-Bt-l) =a (Pt-Et-l) 'If{1f.$Hl:l.!lIIft~~ I Hwgil<i~a'!IIil~1K .. 'If{1f.~~.<<~:!il~wg~~ I ¥i (iIil~) lia'!ll:!iltl!l,iI1\( ~ aJI!!l1 ~ .. ~l~"'tl!l,atlJ(-w: I iE$:"'If{If.:!il1l:l!l 0. -\l~. _ !Sa .. Jacobs R•• and R. Jones, "Price Expectations in the United States. 1947-1975." in American Economic R6oiew, June 1980, Vol. 70, No.3, pp. 269-277. ~~ Conover, Pamela Johnston. Stanley Feldman, and Kathleen Knight, "Judging Inflation and Unemploy ment: The Origins of Retrospective Evaluations," in Journal of Politics, August 1986, Vol. 48. No.3, pp. 565-588, -The Personal and Political Underpinnings of Economic Forecasts," in American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 31. No.3. pp. 559-583. ilil$ q .. Kinder, Donald R. and Riewiet, D. Roderick, "Economic Discontent and Political Behavior: The Role of Personal Grievances and Collective Economic Judgemats in Congressional Voting" American Jornal of Political Science, August 1979, Vol. 23, No.3, pp. 495-517. Kramer. Gerald H•• "The Ecological Fallacy Revisited: Aggregate versus Individual-level Findings on Economics and Elections, and Sociotropic Voting," American Political Science Review. March 1983, vol. 77, No.1, pp. 92-111. s~:~\Il1rn:!il.-<a .. ~tE-fiJ~. _. -<_ilii¥l(it (panel data) il<i.K: 0. ~~W~~~$~~.~~~.~~.

(8) ~~~$~. ~~~. ~~~. ~~~~M~. ~~~~J~*~~~\~«*. ~~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.o. ... ,.r••. ~~~$~.~~~~~.~~~. ~, ~~~. <0. " :ll* 1 ~.1iI. ••*.~~.~~. ~i$i:\;lB£.~ (Ray C. Fair) ~~~~I~!fr~*,~5E~tf!~~$1i'<~~~.·o @~~B£.'Ji~_~~lllIi!!!~!EI. 1KWl 1~~K.ztl-). ~ tcr:~~tr&I~i;('--,~~J,l;~4r.ztl-:li1K!i[~~~. ~~~~~~1)~~ .~® ~ll ~.m£w~~~~1l-~~;1t~~IiB:~~~II(~ ~ ~i;\il~~~!~~:gI] • • ~~~~Il:~-R '~:ll*11l ~.1iI. 1. .. Vt =33. 79+ 1.16.6.Yt + O. 726Tt +3.52It + Ut " ® :j(1l-:>mwlll:('H1{:lilliw ..... .ztl-m~+<~::!fil!i1ID~*·~.6.. ~~1l-~~.~~~Im!il1l-lll:(+H.~~\fi1R* (!!f~~fiti{JII. ~::!fi~." .~:m~*~~;ij;!;t.;~.gJL-. • •*l--.lA'$-<!i[lll:(-:I:l1~ilfl~t$'~~ 1@tm~~. ~ lll:(+H{~i:\;l~~+<~~411!i[~\ftl~*~~~. 1 • 1K$Im~~~. 0. :j(~tl{~:$.. Ytlllj!(l~.ztl-jm(.*:1Al!!-<!i[lll:({+\tl:l!i\w~~~l!¢(*·~ ~mwttf~~jR·~ ...!'mwil1rm.ztl-IIIj!(1¢-mw.ftl~~~~m!1t!:!·~ ~1IIj!(~;!!I~~ " ml~$~~~1IliI! ~.gJL-". ~~. '~~411!i[~l!¢(~:I!jR*i\1II\l ~ ~lll:(+H.~~'~ ~1!lk;lll:(+HtIE~i$lP$~~~1!IlI1t!:! ~ im:tcr:~~Im~Nlll~H=:l11~~\ftl~*. * 1:@'. .~~~~_~~~~~~~l~<O.ztl-' l~<g.ztl-~~~~~.£i:\;l~IiB:~• •*l-~$-<!i[lll:(-:I:l1tl:l!i\w~~l!¢(*(~~~. ~§IWl~~\llE~~~~I¢(*~!t) ~~~tmit~ffi\llE.ztl-~*l-~~~~~*NJL- ~ lll:('1+l~i:\;l4r.ztl-~~+<~tr~itl!!l1IDR* ~ ~* 1 <> 9. .*IIIj!(lll:(+H~~~1ID~*~~~H=:lO~im:lll:(+H~~+HID~~~~tm~NH=:l+im: • • mww~.o~i;~I!lk;*~.~~~~~~4r~:@,. ttI@ Fair, Ray C., "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," Review of Economics and Statistics, [May 1978, vol. 60, No.. 2, pp. 159-173.. 1Iitl.@ fli(1ti!l.liaI~t;li'asM1$~:ta~ (Gerald H. Kramer) :lf1.liaIl'IISi.{fL:teti (George J. Stigler) i\J!'-~~.i3I:lf1ti~ 0 ~~~:lf1.i3IaJ1il\lt r~l;. 0 Dlll Kramer, Gerald H.," Short-Term Fluctuations in U. S. Voting Behavior, 1896-1964," American Political. Science Review, March 1971, vol. 65, No. I, pp. 131-143. !!i!l~i!.{.:teti (.m(.IiItI{~*D iti<K-ne:.~:ta~:lf1.i3IiliI~ 0 Dlll Stigler George. ~l1!!:~~J 1$~-£I-:lf1taitll;IlB. '$ . ,. J., "General Economic Conditions and National Elections," ill American Economic Review, May 1973, vol. 63, No.2, pp. 160-167.. Rauch, Jonathan, "Election-Day Economy," National Journal, Oct. 24, 1987,p. 2660.. ItfiIS Fair, op. cit., p. 168.. iti~. >. sd.

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