Using Weighted Schedule Performance to Improve Project Duration Forecasting Accuracy 羅敬智、曾清枝
E-mail: 9806201@mail.dyu.edu.tw
ABSTRACT
Earned value management synchronous integration of the concept of cost and duration. Implementation of the project to measure the performance and monitoring. At the same time, managers can simultaneously resolve the cost and time management difficulties.
Lipke(2003) import time point proposed the concept of earned schedule(ES). Performance indicators can reflect the real situation of project. Enhance the forecasting ability of the project completion time, but earned value management most focus on the cost field of project. Show insufficient for research of project duration forecasting.
Vandevoorde and Vanhoucke(2005) use project performance indicators as a measurement based. Integration of the nine different project duration forecasting methods. In this study, different from the concept to the use of the cumulative time performance indicators show, but individual period that. And use the average concept. Re-calculate the project schedule performance indicators.
During the individual period values do inspection of fluctuation percentage, and executed smooth amendment action on the excess fluctuation scope of period. Construction a forecasting duration method of integration average and smooth amendment concept.
And Lipke(2009) proposed weighted average composite rank method, through project cases analysis to examine that earned schedule(ES) ability to forecasting. To provide project managers of the new thinking of selected forecasting methods and calculation of performance indicators.
Keywords : earned value management、earned schedule、schedule performance index、project duration forecasting Table of Contents
中文摘要 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． iii 英文摘要 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． iv 誌謝辭 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． v 內容目錄 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． vi 表目錄 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． viii 圖目錄 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． ix 第一章 緒論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 1 第一節 研究背景與動機．．．．．．．．．．．．． 1 第二節 研究目的．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 3 第三節 研究流程．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 4 第二章 文獻探討．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 5 第一節 實獲值管理．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 5 第二節 實獲時程分析．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 14 第三節 實獲值專案工期預測方法．．．．．．．．． 18 第三章 研究架構分析．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 26 第一節 研究架構．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 26 第二節 平均概念融合平滑修正模式建構．．．．．． 28 第四章 研究運用與分析．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 33 第一節 專案案例運用．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 33 第二節 專案案例之計算分析．．．．．．．．．．． 39 第五章 研究結論與建議．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 44 第一節 研究結果．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 44 第二節 研究建議、限制與未來研究方向．．．．．． 45 參考文獻 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 47 附錄 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 51 表目錄
表 2- 1 實獲值參數定義．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 12 表 2- 2 成本績效分析指標．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 13 表 2- 3 實獲時程參數定義．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 17 表 2- 4 依據專案不同情況估計PDWR．．．．．．．．．． 21 表 4- 1 專案案例背景．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 33 表 4- 2 專案案例1詳細資訊．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 34 表 4- 3 專案案例2詳細資訊．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 35 表 4- 4 專案案例3詳細資訊．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 36 表 4- 5 專案案例4詳細資訊．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 37 表 4- 6 專案案例5詳細資訊．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 38 表 4- 7 專案案例1標準差與排名．．．．．．．．．．．． 40 表 4- 8 各專案案例在早期(10%-40%)內標準差與排名．．． 41 表 4- 9 各專案案例在早期(10%-40%)加權分數與排名．．． 42 表 4-10 各預測方法加權平均排序結果．．．．．．．．．． 43
圖目錄
圖 1- 1 研究流程圖．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 4 圖 2- 1 實獲值管理分析示意圖．．．．．．．．．．．．． 13 圖 2- 2 SV vs SV(t) ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 16 圖 3- 1 研究分析架構流程．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 27 REFERENCES
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