第四章 我國與亞洲地區主要貨櫃港埠關係之分析
4.2 我國三港及其與亞洲地區港埠間之關係分析
4.2.3 一般化衝擊反應函數分析之結果
1. 我國基隆、臺中、高雄三港一般化衝擊反應函數之檢定結果。
以預測基準為12 期(年)進行一般化衝擊反應分析，結果發現，基隆港貨櫃 量產生一單位貨櫃量標準差干擾項之外生衝擊時，對基隆港自身影響較大，其 次為高雄和臺中港，且2 至 10 期時對臺中港為負向影響；臺中港貨櫃量發生變 動，對自身影響最大外，其次為高雄和基隆港，且7 至 12 期時對基隆港為負向 影響；高雄港貨櫃量發生變動後，對自身影響最大，其次為臺中和基隆港，且 6 期以後對基隆港為負向影響。由於圖中皆無收斂的趨勢，可知我國任一港埠 貨櫃量發生變動，受此衝擊影響的三港12 期內皆無法反應完畢。
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圖4- 2 我國三港之一般化衝擊反應函數 2. 我國三港與亞洲地區主要港埠一般化衝擊反應函數之結果。
以預測基準為12期(年)進行動態衝擊反應分析。基隆港受到一單位貨櫃量標 準差干擾項之外生衝擊時，自身影響相較其他亞洲地區港埠為大，與香港、釜山、
新加坡、東京、青島等港為正向關係，影響隨期間增加逐漸減弱但並無明顯的收 斂趨勢。與大陸地區的上海、天津、大連、廈門等港埠多為負向關係，對青島港 影響則最小，其中與大連、廈門、寧波約在第5期達到收斂，影響逐漸降低。反 之，當此三港貨櫃量發生變動，對基隆港的影響則沒有那麼快消失，結果如圖4-3。
臺中港受到一單位貨櫃量標準差干擾項之外生衝擊時，對自身的影響相較其 他亞洲地區港埠為大，與上海、天津、大連、寧波港為負向關係外，其餘皆為正 向關係。由圖4-4中可以發現，不論是臺中港或亞洲地區港埠發生變動，隨期間 遞增影響並沒有顯著的降低，因此可知彼此的影響在12期內無法消失。
高雄港受到衝擊時，自身的影響相較於其他亞洲地區港埠為大，除新加坡、
上海、天津、青島外，與香港、釜山、東京皆為正向影響；反之，上海及天津貨 櫃量受到衝擊時與高雄港亦為負向關係，其中，高雄港發生衝擊對大連港的影響 及天津港發生衝擊對高雄港的影響，皆隨期間遞增趨於穩定且影響也逐漸降低，
結果如圖4-5。綜合上述可以發現，當我國港埠貨櫃量發生一單位變動後，在一 開始發生時皆對自身港埠的影響最大，經過長時間後這種影響大多都會趨於減 弱，且我國或大陸地區的港埠貨櫃量發生變動時，兩地區之港埠多為負向關係。
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圖4- 3基隆港與亞洲地區港埠之一般化衝擊反應函數
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圖4- 4臺中港與亞洲地區港埠之一般化衝擊反應函數
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Response of KHH to Generalized One S.D. Innovations
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Response of HKG to Generalized One S.D. Innovations
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Response of KHH to Generalized One S.D. Innovations
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圖4- 5高雄港與亞洲地區港埠之一般化衝擊反應函數