第五章 結論
第二節、 未來研究方向
（一）理論的檢證
本研究主要論點之一為「由於威權制度作為資源得以改變權力運作的動 態，使得銳實力成威權國家獨有的權力形式」，並以中共為例作為此論點的佐 證。惟礙於篇幅與研究主題，其他威權國家 － 如俄羅斯、伊朗與沙烏地阿拉 伯等 － 是否同樣以此方法運用權力，成了遺珠之憾。按本研究之初步觀察，
俄國於其網路空間確實在一定程度上設立了類似於中共的限制；另外，2019 年
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11 月，該國跟隨中共倡議而制定的《網路主權法》已正式生效。1 此番作為是 否會令本文提出之銳實力概念更加鞏固 － 甚至是在政治層面形成威權國家領 導的網際網路領域 － 值得進一步探討。
以量化方法進行本議題的實證研究，亦是另一條可行道路。如本研究於第 二章引用的V-dem 資料庫提供之數據，或許便能用以檢證「銳實力是由威權國 家獨有」的命題；具體而言，量化方法可以探討以下問題：
1. 在全球層面，「資訊管控之程度」與「接收到錯誤訊息之程度」是否在統 計上為負相關？ （亦即，建立相關制度能否成功令權力動態成為準單向 形式？）
2. 若上問為否，另外將國家能力（national capacity）納入考量，是否會令 上問成立？ （亦即，銳實力的實施是否要該國具備一定硬實力？）
3. 「國家的民主程度」與「政府對外散布錯誤訊息的程度」是否在統計上 相關？ （亦即，越民主的國家越不會散布錯誤訊息嗎？）
在微觀層面，針對各類社群媒體進行數據爬梳與情緒商數分析，亦能在一定程 度上檢視此種行為在受眾國的實際效果如何；在本研究撰寫當下，已有許多相 關研究以上述方法執行，對本議題關注之研究者值得在未來繼續追蹤之。
（二）其他重要個案、雙邊關係與中國大陸內部的探討
中共之銳實力投射是全球性的，五大洲均可能發現類似作為。其中，以地 緣鄰近性判斷，其對於東南亞與東北亞地區之投射可能相當具有指標意義；而 臺灣、香港與海外華裔族群，更是其海外統戰策略的重點目標。未來相關研究 之產出，將可能提供卓著的學術與社會貢獻。
其中，香港的例子尤為特殊 － 由於北京與特區政府之關係並非平行，無 法將其視為「外國政府」；同時，香港社會所面臨的制度限制，在現階段亦不如 中國大陸內地般嚴密，無法將其視為「被控制的非國家行為者」 － 這些事實 使得香港案例無法單單由本文圖1-7 模型加以解釋。此外，在本研究撰寫之當
1 「俄羅斯「主權網路法」生效，將來網路自由度比中國還低？」，關鍵評論網，
https://www.thenewslens.com/article/126934（2019 年 11 年 3 日）。
下，香港的示威與中共的「輿論引導」仍持續進行中，難以在此詳加分析，期 待未來研究者在相關證據與資料充足後，將此空白填滿。
另外，澳洲作為一以西方文化為主體、近年廣納華裔移民的國家，亦是中 共銳實力投射的重點對像；以此作為延伸，「一帶一路」之沿線國家與中共之關 係及銳實力在此的投射，也會是未來國際關係研究之重點。若再進一步論及宏 觀層面，銳實力的投射及「四個自信」的提出，是否是對美國建立之「自由國 際秩序」之挑戰，更將是未來國際關係學最重要的問題之一。
（三）其他學門、學科專業的觀點
本研究主要以國際關係學科之觀點切入；然而，本主題在很大層面亦涉及 政治學門選舉研究、區域研究以及傳播學門之專業。如同本研究於首章所回顧 的，公眾外交相關理論事實上落在傳播學與國際關係學之交界。本研究雖已盡 力採納相關觀點，但仍有無法妥善回答的地方。例如，「政治宣傳對民眾的影響 程度」、「不實與造謠訊息對於一國民主運作的效果」、「銳實力在網路社群媒體 的具體運作機制」等等政治傳播學領域之微觀問題，便尚待其他學界先賢或後 進進一步的研究。
最後，本研究欲點出幾個礙於研究範圍（scope），僅能簡單帶過、未能詳 述之中國大陸研究學科議題。其一為中共宣傳、統戰體系之結構及制度之討 論；再者，在中共的言論審查政策上，本文第三章論及之WeChatScope 資料 庫，或許便能參考適用King 等人於 2013 年採取的研究方法與途徑，探究習時 代之中共在言論審查政策上是否逐漸傾向「國家批判說」；第三，針對孔子學院 在海外的影響與言論審查，則能以更細膩的個案研究檢視其運作機制；最後，
習近平所謂「中國夢」、「中華民族之偉大復興」等概念背後，實蘊含著強烈的 民族主義色彩，此種情緒在國內及海外的運作機制與效果，亦為解答銳實力成 效的重要問題。
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