第六章 結論…
第二節 檢討與建議
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TEDS 在 2004 年與 2008 年立委選舉之後所蒐集的定群追蹤資料(panel data)，檢 視台灣選民在新舊選制下投票參與情形是否有所不同。
研究結果顯示，選民的選制評估與大小黨認同都是解釋他們在新舊選制下投 票參與情形的重要因素。在評估選舉制度對投票意願的部分，認為新選制讓他們 更想去投票的選民，的確有更高機率「從之前沒去投轉換為有去投」；而認為新 選制降低投票意願的選民，則有更高機率「從之前有去投轉換為沒去投」。這代 表選民對於新舊選制的主觀評價，的確反映在他們的投票行為之上。本研究的另 外一個重要自變數，即選民的大小黨認同也有顯著的影響。相對於大黨支持者，
沒有政黨認同及轉向支持小黨的選民在新選制下有顯著從之前有去投轉換為沒 去投」的傾向。上述兩點發現顯示，即使台灣立委選舉的總體投票率下降未必來 自選制變遷，但是從個體選民的主觀評價或客觀從他們的大小黨認同情形，都可 以發現他們投票參與的確顯著受選制變遷所影響。
綜合上述的研究發現，通過跨國比較研究我們確認選舉規則的比例性與選區 規模的大小，的確都會對各國投票率高低產生影響，符合學理預期。不過，選舉 制度的影響在民主資歷較淺的國家則較小，甚至與預期的結果相反。從台灣的個 案研究中，我們發現選舉制度改革雖然讓立委選舉的比例代表性降低，但是新選 制下的第一次立委選舉投票率，卻沒有因選制改革而有顯著下降。不過，對於台 灣個體選民而言，他們對新舊選制的認知、以及他們的大小黨認同，仍顯著影響 他們在新舊選制下的投票參與的穩定與變遷。從這一點，我們或許可以推測，民 主資歷較淺國家的選民由於所經歷的選舉經驗較少，對於選制的理解及認知未必 與資深民主國家相同，因而在跨國比較分析中才會得到上述的結果。
第二節 檢討與建議
本文在針對本主題進行分析時，也面臨一些研究限制，在此提出作為將來研 究發展的建議。
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一、跨國比較的方法與資料問題
進行跨國國會投票率比較研究時，難以迴避的一個方法論質疑，即實際選舉 是以選區為單位。在研究當中我們往往合併各選區資料，以國家為單位進行分析，
難免忽略國內各選區差異所產生的影響。學者們之所以採取這樣的研究方法，主 要是受限於以選區為單位的資料蒐集不易。不過，目前 Constituency-Level Election Archive(CLEA)已經累積不少以選區為單位的重要資料，是未來相關研究值得參 考的方向。另外，跨國跨時的資料雖然能夠豐富研究成果，但是相關資料的蒐集 匯整卻並不容易。尤其是早期的總體資料，即使是官方資料，也不見得保存完整。
因此許多資料都是來自二手資料庫，必須透過研究者多方檢證才能確認其信度。
另外也有些資料是確定無法取得，使得部分樣本無法納入分析，影響推論效度。
如何克服資料蒐集上的問題，也是未來相關研究值得深思的一點。
二、選舉制度變遷的多國比較
過去曾有學者主張，制度變遷不易，因此選舉制度甚少進行改革(Sartori 1968;
Taagepera and Shugart 1989)。然而，近年的實際經驗似乎顛覆了這樣的印象，世 界各民主國家紛紛選擇以改革選舉制度的方式試圖來解決國內的重大社會問題。
如同本研究第四章所陳述，民主國家在近三十年所進行的選舉制度改革的次數是 過去的數倍之多。即使如此，受限於案例數以及有效研究方法，目前以選舉制度 變遷對投票參與影響所進行研究大多為以單一國家為主的個案研究(Eggleton 2014; Vowles 2010)。要建構選制變遷對投票參與影響的理論通則，需要仰賴未來 研究以現有個案分析結果為基礎，進行多國多選制變遷模式的比較與分析。
三、台灣投票參與研究的長期觀察
2016 年台灣立委選舉將是 MMM 選舉制度被採行後的第三次立委選舉，然 而大眾與學界對於選舉制度所帶來影響，大多聚焦在選票與席次的不比例性，而 較忽略 MMM 選制可能會讓更多選民選擇不參與投票，進而影響國會組成的代
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表性。雖然台灣立委選舉的投票率在 2012 年與總統選舉併選後有顯著的提升，
不過我們不能忽略立委選舉也有提升總統選舉投票率的可能性41。因此，MMM 選舉制度對選民投票參與的影響仍應受到重視。本研究受限於僅能觀察到同一群 選民在新選制下的第一次投票參與情形，我們無法持續觀察新選制所衍生的影響，
尤其是選民在 2008 年首次實施立委新選制後，會不會因而有了新的體認進而改 變他們的參與情形。此外，由於 2012 年的立委選舉與總統選舉合併，使「總統 與立委併選」成為選制之外的影響因素，更增加了分析選制效應的困難度。不過，
當合併選舉逐漸成為常態，選舉制度對選民投票影響的分析仍有不少的研究空間。
其中，本研究認為在單一選區兩票制下，區域票與不分區票對於選民投票參與的 影響效果是否有所差異，是個值得嘗試的方向。
41 2012 年總統選舉投票率雖然較 2008 年總統選舉略有下降，但是以反事實的思維來思考這一點 的話，我們或許不該忽略如果總統選舉沒有與立委選舉合併進行，投票率是否會有更大幅度的下 降？因此，立委選舉的確有可能存產生抬總統選舉投票率的效應。
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黃紀、周應龍，2013，〈2012 年總統與立委併選的一致與分裂投票〉，載於《2012 年總統與立法委員選舉：變遷與延續》， 陳陸輝主編，台北：五南圖書出版
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