第五章 結論
第二節 未來研究方向與政策建議
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崛貣，尤其 2008 年全球金融危機爆發，美國國內的失業率激增，公眾對於 中國經濟的負面觀感日益升高。
事實上，社會大眾的支持對外交政策具有一定程度的重要性，就連對民 意的智慧抱持高度懷疑的學者，也承認在決策與民意間存在巨大隔閡是危險 的。長期來看，公眾的支持是制定穩定且有效的外交政策的基礎，決策者應 該要與公眾取得共識，看是前者回應後者的需求；亦或是前者說服後者同意 其判斷。3天安門事件後，美國公眾對中國的觀感大幅地滑落，當時的布希 總統卻沒意識到已思變的民心，又或者忽略了公眾支持對外交政策的重要性，
仍欲延續自 1979 年以來以菁英政治為基礎的美中夥伴關係，使得自己陷入 政治困境，更讓柯林頓得以利用其中國政策做為選戰中的武器，贏得總統大 選。4而以目前的美中關係來說，重點在於美國在對中國採取開放的貿易政 策的同時，應該要針對國內為此受傷慘重的產業與個人來設計補償的配套措 施，也就是說，美國政府要運用更完善政策來保護國內工作機會，以降低公 眾對中國的威脅認知，提升社會對開放貿易政策的支持。
第二節 未來研究方向與政策建議
本研究分析歸納了美國公眾與美國菁英對中認知的內涵及特性，而這樣 的認知會形塑美國政府對中國政策的制定，同時當然也對台灣產生既深且遠 的影響，因此，筆者欲立基於此項結論，論述台灣在美中關係中的處境，並 對台灣政府提出政策上的建議。
長期以來，台灣問題一直是一個橫亙在美中之間的關鍵爭議。天安門事
3 Benjamin I. Page and Marshall M. Bouton. The Foreign Policy Disconnect. (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 2006).
4 James Mann, About Face. (New York: Vintage Books, 1998), pp. 210-225.
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件後，美國自 1979 年來為了聯中制蘇而苛刻台灣的政策開始出現轉變。1992 年，布希政府同意對台的 150 架 F-16 戰機軍售；1994 年，柯林頓提高台灣 外交官的待遇層級；1995 年，國會與行政部門同意李登輝總統訪美；1995 到 1996 年間的台海危機則是後冷戰美中關係的一個轉折點，中國清楚地向 美國傳達了台灣對中國的重要性及不惜對台使用武力的決心，而美國則亦對 中國及區域領袖展示了對盟邦承諾的可信度；51998 年，柯林頓在訪問中國 時拋出了三不政策：「反對台灣獨立」、「不支持兩個中國或一中一台」以及
「不支持台灣加入聯合國」，標誌著台灣政策的又一次轉向；62000 年小布 希執政時，對台灣採取友善的態度，支持對台軍售，並宣示任何關於台灣問 題的決議都應該獲得台灣人民的支持；2001 年 911 事件後，美國需要中國 在全球反恐戰爭中的支持，對台灣問題趨於低調。7
綜觀美中台三角關係的歷史，在美國對中國有所期待時，台灣就會變成 被美方犧牲以換取中方支持的一顆棋子。事實上，也有許多美國學者主張，
美國與中國在台灣問題上存在著利益的不對稱性：8即中國將台灣視為領土 不可分割的一部分，屬於重大的國家利益；然而對美國而言，台灣的重要性 在於基於《台灣關係法》的法理承諾，屬於次級國家利益。在這種狀況下，
隨著中國的重要性日益提升，兩相權衡之下，美國應該重新評估對台灣的安 全承諾。9事實上，不管是在美國一般菁英亦或是美國國會成員的認知中，
中國能夠提供的利益與犧牲台灣必頇花費的成本這兩者之間的差距正在不 斷擴大，因而使其對美國政府出兵介入台海衝突的支持度日益下降。
5 Robert S. Ross, Chinese Security Policy: structure, power and politics. (New York:
Routledge, 2009), pp. 133-135.
6 James Mann, About Face, op. cit., pp. 339-368.
7 John F. Copper, "The Taiwan Factor in U.S.-China Relations," in Suisheng Zhao., China and the United States: cooperation and competition in Northeast Asia (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008).
8 Robert S. Ross, Chinese Security Policy: structure, power and politics, op. cit., pp. 159-161.
9 Charles Glaser, "Will China's Rise Lead to War?," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90, No. 2 (2011), pp.
80-91.
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在美國大眾方面，對於出兵防衛台灣這件事情亦抱持著與菁英們相同的 態度。以目前的狀況而言，僅有四分之一的美國公眾支持美國出兵防衛台灣，
而將近四分之三的公眾則抱持反對態度，兩者之間存在巨大的差距。這樣的 走向完全符合美國公眾對外交政策的基本認知：全球金融危機之後，在美國 國內的經濟大幅地衰退，失業率居高不下的狀況下，美國的外交政策應該要 以解決國內問題為優先，而非花費鉅額成本涉入無關切身利益之地區衝突。
上述的各項數據充分顯示了台灣目前的困境：目前在美國菁英與公眾的 認知中，台灣與中國的利益槓桿已嚴重地向中方傾斜，而一旦兩岸發生軍事 衝突時，美國政府依據《台灣關係法》派遣軍隊馳援台灣的可能性似乎隨著 槓桿的傾斜程度而持續地降低。對於這般不利的情勢，台灣方面則必頇有所 體認，在沒有美國涉入的條件下，貿然與中國發生軍事衝突的成本及後果。
不過，以目前兩岸的帄和氣氛來看，台灣應該思考的是在不發生軍事衝突的 狀況下，如何提升自己在美國利益槓桿中的重量。值得注意的是，根據美國 務實主義的邏輯，軟實力對台灣的困境並無太大作用，就像台灣的民主政治 雖然具有法理上的正當性與吸引力，但卻不構成所謂的實質利益，惟有經濟 利益或是顯著的戰略利益才擁有帄衡槓桿的能量。
本研究透過系統性的分析，歸納並整理了可能形塑及影響美國菁英與公 眾認知的各項因子，為日後的美中關係研究提供了一個國家及決策層次的基 礎，使得研究者得以從更全面的角度來觀察美國中國政策的發展與走向。然 而，基於外交政策研究本身的限制，本研究難以排除其他變數的影響，亦無 法在美國外交政策及認知變數兩者之間建立一個絕對且明確的關係架構。另 外，由於美國的外交決策過程複雜，在此過程中形成直接或間接影響的菁英 團體為數眾多，而本研究僅能將全體菁英做為一個一般性的整體加以分析，
再與國會成員的認知進行比較，但未能涵蓋的其他具代表性的團體，像是企
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業界領袖、軍方人士、勞工團體以及傳播媒體對中國之認知，皆能作為延伸 之研究主題。
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圖三-1 Which one of the following do you think is the leading economic power in the world today?
圖三-3 Looking ahead twenty years, which one of the following countries do you expect to be the world's leading economic power at that time?
表三-1 Overall do you think that China's growing economy is a good thing or a bad thing for our country?
表三-2 If China’s economy were to grow to be as large as the U.S.
economy, do you think that would be mostly positive, mostly negative, or equally positive and negative?
表三-2 Do you consider China to be an economic threat to the United States, or not?
表三-4 Do you consider China to be a military threat to the United States, or not?
表三-5 How do you view China’s emergence as a military power—as a serious threat to the U.S., a potential threat, no threat, or as an ally of the U.S.?
表三-6 And overall do you think that China's growing military power is a good thing or a bad thing for our country?
圖三-4 I would like to know how much influence you think each of the following countries has in the world. Please answer on a 0 to 10 scale; with 0 meaning they are not at all influential and 10 meaning they are extremely influential.
圖三-5 Using the same 10 point scale, please say how much influence you think each of the following countries will have in the world 10 years from now.
表三-7 Below is a list of possible foreign policy goals that the United States might have. For each one please select whether you think that it should be a very important foreign policy goal of the United States, a somewhat important foreign policy goal, or not an important goal at all?
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表三-8 (The German Marshall Fund)There are different views about the rise of China. In economic terms, some people see China as more of an opportunity for new markets and investment, while others see it as a threat to our jobs and economic security. Which view is closer to your own?
(CNN)If you had to choose, would you say that China's wealth and economic power is more of a threat to the United States, or is more of an opportunity for the United States?"
(ABC News)In economic terms, some people see China as more of an opportunity for new markets and investment, while others see it as a threat to American jobs and economic security. Which view is closer to your own?
表三-9 In general, do you think that the following countries practice fair trade or unfair trade with the United States?
表三-10 Today, in general do you think of China as more of an ally or more of an adversary?
表三-11 All things considered, which of these descriptions comes closest to your view of China today? Do you think China is...an adversary, a serious problem, but not an adversary or, not much of a problem?
表三-12 Do you feel that...China is a close ally of the U.S. (United States), is friendly but not a close ally, is not friendly but not an enemy, or is unfriendly and is an enemy of the U.S.?
圖三-7 Next, how important do you think what happens in each of the following countries is to the United States today -- would you say it is vitally important, important but not vital, not too important, or not at all important?
圖三-8 In terms of American vital interests today, which country is more important to the United States–Japan or China?
圖三-11 Next, I'd like your overall opinion of some foreign countries. First, is your overall opinion of CHINA very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?
圖三-12 (Gallup)How would you rate the job the government of China does in respecting the human rights of its citizens--very good, mostly good, mostly bad, or very bad?
(CNN) How would you rate the job the government of China does in respecting the human rights of its citizens: very good, mostly good, mostly bad or very bad?
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表三-13 Please rate your feelings toward some countries and peoples, with one hundred meaning a very warm, favorable feeling, zero meaning a very cold, unfavorable feeling,and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that country or those people.
圖三-13 There has been some discussion about the circumstances that might justify using U.S. troops in other parts of the world. Please give your opinion about some situations.
Would you favor or oppose the use of U.S. troops:[If China invaded Taiwan]
表三-14 Which concerns you more about China: its economic strength or its military strength?
表三-15 In what two areas do you think the U.S. and China share the most common interest?
表三-16 What are the two most likely sources of conflict between the U.S.
and China in the near future?
表四-1 How has China’s global influence changed over the past ten years?
表四-2 How do you view China’s emergence as a global economic power—as a serious threat to the U.S., a potential threat, no threat, or as an economic partner of the U.S.?
How do you view China’s emergence as a military power—as a serious threat to the U.S., a potential threat, no threat, or as an ally of the U.S.?
表四-3 I am going to re ad a list of possible foreign policy goals that the Unite d States might have . For each one please say whether you think that it should be a very important foreign policy goal of the United State s, a somewhat important foreign policy goal, or not an important goal at all.
表四-4 What are the two most likely sources of conflict between the U.S.
and China in the near future?
表四-5 In what two areas do you think the U.S. and China share the most common interest?
表四-6 Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: Trade with the U.S. is beneficial to China’s economy.
表四-7 D o you favor or oppose the use of economic sanctions against each of the following countries?
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表四-8 In terms of American vital interests today, which country is more important to the United States–Japan or China?
表四-9 How would you describe your impressions of China?
表四-10 How would you describe your impressions of China?
表四-11 What are your two greatest concerns about U.S.-China relations?
表四-11 What are your two greatest concerns about U.S.-China relations?