取大規模購債的量化寬鬆政策,雖不是靈丹妙藥(It will not be a panacea…),但 是對於促進就業與維持物價穩定仍有很大助益。
多數先進經濟體相信像 QE 這樣極度寬鬆貨幣政策(ultra easy monetary policy)有其好處,到目前為止不僅成功地讓全球經濟及金融體系免於崩潰,更 濟中產生了不善投資或是資源錯置(malinvestments)、限縮了中央銀行的獨立性、
鼓勵政府暫時迴避主權債務問題、造成分配面上的不公平、危及金融機構的健康、
則接下來再發生的經濟或金融危機將會更加嚴重。(White 2012)。
51 根據 2016 年 5 月 2 日南韓中央日報報導,南韓總統朴槿惠有意採取韓國版的量化寬 鬆政策,透過南韓中央銀行向國營銀行購買金融債券,以提供資金協助企業重整。取自:
http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/Article.aspx?aid=3018183,參考日期 2016 年 5 月 12 日。
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最重要的事:央行、不穩定與避免下一個崩潰(The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability and Avoiding the Next Collapse)所強調的重點在於政治人物們越 來越依賴中央銀行提供的經濟刺激,但也同時失去改革的契機;長久實施的寬鬆 貨幣政策推高了資產價格,卻也造成了財富分配不均;對於金融風險的耐受度,
大於企業願意承擔增加投資的經濟風險。此外,由於長期的高失業率、民眾對政
52 數據資料參閱 Monetary Policy Report to the Congress Submitted pursuant to section 2B of the Federal Reserve Act July 21,2010, P.37
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/20100721_mprfullreport.pdf
53 數據資料參閱 Bank of England, “Inflation Report August 2010”, P.38
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/inflationreport/ir10aug.pdf
54 參閱:The Economist(2016), title of article:Shifting the burden--Central banks need to do less, and politicians more”. Retrieved May 12, 2016, from:
http://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21688836-central-banks-need-do-less-and-p oliticians-more-shifting-burden
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府當局的不信任、未能協調的經濟政策等因素,使得全球經濟正在快速接近 T 字路口,而這也是截然不同的路徑。一邊是邁向更高的經濟成長、降低的金融風 險、降低金融風險和降低不公平現象;另一邊措施的就是朝向錯誤方向進行。這 些逐漸浮出爭點,也是人們對於央行長期刻意營造寬鬆貨幣政策所做的反思。
事實上,在危機發生時,各國央行面臨到是否需要採行非傳統貨幣政策的抉 擇,Yamaoka 與 Syed(2010)提出若央行不伸出援手扮演最後貸款者(lender of last resort)的角色,百年投資銀行宣布破產所衍生出的系統性風險並非當時央行 所能掌握,儘管外界對此有道德風險的疑慮;央行實施量化寬鬆政策時,大規模 購買的資產除了政府公債之外,還包括資產擔保證券、公司債、商業本票甚至不 動產投資信託等,角色又轉換為最後造市者(market maker of last resort),而各 國央行的資產負債表也推升到最高點;隨著金融海嘯逐漸消退,經濟狀況開始回 穩,央行又面臨到是否要退出量化寬鬆的另一項挑戰,深怕重蹈覆轍日本銀行於 2006 年宣布退出量化寬鬆政策後,仍深陷物價緊縮的經濟環境。
對於量化寬鬆政策的論斷其實還言之過早,畢竟金融環境快速轉變,全球經 濟連動更加緊密,央行採行貨幣政策除了遵循傳統理論之外,亦應適時加入新的 元素隨之變動。如同 Bernanke(2014)提及,QE 的問題是摸著石頭過河,而不 是靠著既有理論運作(the problem with QE is it works in practice, but it doesn't work in theory),因此對於量化寬鬆政策之成效與調整,還留待後續進一步研究。
此外對於各國量化寬鬆政策實施後之經濟成效,除了單純就數據觀察之外,建議 後續研究可建構實證模型,以精確了解量化寬鬆政策與經濟成效間之具體因果關 係。
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